I don't know what it means for UNL, but if you drop Purdue to tier 3 and move Nebraska up from tier 5 to 4, Purdue goes from -2 to even.
Loss to UNL no longer an upset. Loss to IL remains a negative upset. Win over MSU becomes a positive upset.
We should consider it. I would like some feedback from the group. After last night's upset (IL over PU in West Lafayette) there are now three teams outside of +/-1. They are:
- +2 Illinois
- +2 Nebraska
- -2 Purdue
Illinois is in tier-3. The difference between tier-2 and tier-3 is projected result in home games against tier-1 and road games against tier-4. Currently there are no teams in tier-4 but if we elevated UNL there would be. I doesn't matter because the Illini do not visit Lincoln this season anyway so that just leaves home games against the tier-1 teams:
If we move them up their two upset wins (@UW, @PU) would still be upsets and their loss to MSU would also be an upset. Lets wait and see if they can beat Maryland at home on 2/7.
Nebraska is in tier-5. The difference between tier-4 and tier-5 is projected result in home games against tier-3. There are currently four and there would be five if we dropped Purdue to tier-3. In those five potential games:
- vs IL not played
- vs MN not played
- vs RU Lost
- vs IU Lost
- vs PU Won
I just can't see upgrading UNL at this point. Even if we do drop Purdue down to tier-3 the Cornhuskers would still only be 1-2 in the three games that determine the difference between tier-4 and tier-5. I think we just have to look at their upsets and say hey, upsets happen. Also remember that Nebraska's initial projection was 1-19 so they have 19 chances for positive variance and only one chance for negative variance.
Purdue is in tier-2. The difference between tier-3 and tier-2 is projected result in home games against tier-1 and road games against tier-4. There are no tier-4 teams so it is just the result in home games against tier-1 teams. Those are:
- vs UMD not played
- vs MSU won
Thus, Purdue is 1-0 in these games. Even if we elevated UNL they would still only be 1-1 and their two upsets (vsIL, @UNL) would still be upsets even if we dropped them a tier.
New projected final standings (I'll do a complete update with tiebreakers and whatnot on Friday):
- 15-5: MSU, UMD
- 12-8: M, UW
- 11-9: tOSU, PSU, IA, IL
- 10-10: PU, RU
- 9-11: IU, MN
- 3-17: UNL
- 1-10: NU
As usual I will point out that with 10 teams all bunched up within three games of one another this is all VERY fluid at this point.