2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread

[847badgerfan]

https://twitter.com/BadgerMBB/status/1220412013752541184

[medinabuckeye1]

Both games last night resulted in upsets per the tiers.  Ohio State is now -2 but both upset losses (vsUW, vsMN) would but upsets even if we dropped them.  Nonetheless I think we should drop them because I can't realistically see them beating UMD at home (or anywhere else) so I'll drop them to tier-3.  Thus, here are the new tiers:

• UMD, MSU
• PSU, UW, M, IA, PU
• IL, IU, RU, MN, tOSU
• blank
• UNL, NU

The new projected final standings and BTT seeds are as follows:

• 16-4 Maryland
• 14-6 Michigan State
• 12-8 Penn State
• 12-8 Wisconsin
• 11-9 Iowa
• 11-9 Michigan
• 11-9 Illinois
• 10-10 Rutgers
• 10-10 Purdue
• 10-10 Indiana
• 10-10 Minnesota
• 9-11 Ohio State
• 3-17 Nebraska
• 1-19 Northwestern

The tiebreakers are as follows:
Two-way tie for 3rd/4th between PSU and UW at 12-8:  

• The first tiebreaker is H2H where PSU is projected to win because they do not visit Madison this year.  

Three-way tie for 5th/6th/7th between M, IA, and IL at 11-9:  

• The first tiebreaker is H2H2H where all three are projected to go 2-2.  
• The second tiebreaker is record against the best team(s) in the conference.  That is projected to be Maryland.  Iowa is projected to go 1-1 against the Terps, M is projected to go 0-1 against the Terps, IL is projected to go 0-2 against the Terps.  Thus, Iowa gets the #5 seed.  
• IL and M then move to record against the next best team(s) in the conference.  That is projected to be Michigan State.  Michigan is projected to go 1-1 against the Spartans while Illinois is projected to go 0-2 against the Spartans.  Thus, Michigan gets the #6 seed and Illinois gets the #7 seed.  

Four-way tie for 8th/9th/10th/11th at 10-10 between PU, IU, RU, and MN:

• The first tiebreaker is H2H2H2H.  Rutgers does not travel to either Bloomington or Minneapolis so their projected H2H2H2H is 3-1 and they get the #8 seed.  Purdue does not travel to Minneapolis so their projected H2H2H2H is 3-2 and they get the #9 seed.  Indiana does not host Rutgers so their projected H2H2H2H is 2-3 and they get the #10 seed.  Minnesota does not host Purdue or Rutgers so their projected H2H2H2H is 1-3 and they get the #11 seed.  

Based on those projections the BTT match-ups in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 11, 2020:

• #11 Minnesota vs #14 Northwestern, 930pm on BTN
• #12 Ohio State vs #12 Nebraska, 6pm on BTN

Thursday, March 12, 2020:

• #5 Iowa vs tOSU/UNL, 230pm on BTN
• #6 Michigan vs MN/NU, 9pm on BTN
• #7 Illinois vs #10 Indiana, 630pm on BTN
• #8 Rutgers vs #9 Purdue, noon on BTN

Friday, March 13, 2020:

• #1 Maryland vs RU/PU, noon on BTN
• #2 Michigan State vs IL/IU, 630pm on BTN
• #3 Penn State vs M/MN/NU, 9pm on BTN
• #4 Wisconsin vs IA/tOSU/UNL, 230pm on BTN

Saturday, March 14, 2020:

• UMD/RU/PU vs UW/IA/tOSU/UNL, 1pm on CBS
• MSU/IL/IU vs PSU/M/MN/NU, 330pm on CBS

Sunday, March 15, 2020:

• UMD/RU/PU/UW/IA/tOSU/UNL vs MSU/IL/IU/PSU/M/MN/NU, 330pm on CBS

As usual, please not that with 10 teams bunched up within three games of one another at 12-8, 11-9, 10-10, and 9-11 this is all VERY fluid.  

[medinabuckeye1]

All B1G teams except Iowa and Penn State play one game this weekend (Fri-Sun).  The games are:

• Wisconsin+1 at Purdue-2, Friday at 7 on FS1:  We project a Purdue win.  If the Badgers win it will move them to +2 and Purdue to -3.  At that point something will have to be done.  If Wisconsin wins I think we should move them up to tier-1 AND move Purdue down to tier-3.  
• Illinois+2 at Michigan-1, Saturday at noon on FS1:  We project a Michigan win.  If the Illini win it will move them to +3 and Michigan to -2.  At that point something will have to be done.  If Illinois wins I think we should move them up to tier-2 AND move Michigan down to tier-3.  
• Nebraska+2 at Rutgers, Saturday at 2pm on BTN:  We project a Rutgers win.  If the Cornhuskers win we will have to move them up.  
• Maryland at Indiana+1, Sunday at 1pm on CBS:  We project a Maryland win.  If the Hoosiers win we will have to move them up.  
• Ohio State-2 at Northwestern, 630pm on BTN:  We project an Ohio State win.  When the Wildcats win we will have to move Ohio State down into tier-4.  

[ELA]

MSU needs to figure out how to shoot away from Breslin

[ELA]

https://twitter.com/BadgerMBB/status/1220412013752541184

As much as they weren't my favorite uniforms, MSU did win a title in their 2000s ones, and they've never rolled them back out.  The speculation is that it's related to being a Reebok school then, but this sort of puts an end to that.

This year for the 20 year would have made sense.  Maybe against Wisconsin...4 times 

[betarhoalphadelta]

• Wisconsin+1 at Purdue-2, Friday at 7 on FS1:  We project a Purdue win.  If the Badgers win it will move them to +2 and Purdue to -3.  At that point something will have to be done.  If Wisconsin wins I think we should move them up to tier-1 AND move Purdue down to tier-3. 

Although Purdue is now 0-2 vs Illinois, with one being a horrific road loss, I do think that part of it is that we just match up terribly with Illinois. 

For Purdue's offense to operate, we need to have success in the post. Tre and Haarms are both good college centers. Kofi Cockburn is a grown-assed man and a legit NBA draft first-round center. He may only be a freshman, but he's already at the next level. He's too burly for Haarms, and too long and athletic for Tre. So he basically shut down our offense.

Not many teams in the B1G can boast a center in the same realm as Cockburn. I have more faith that Purdue will play better tonight than they did on Tuesday.

[847badgerfan]

I highly doubt the Badgers can pull off a road win against a pissed off Purdue team tonight.

And this schedule is bulljive. UW plays tonight and Monday night, both on the road. Bunch of crap. 0-2 is in the cards here.

[medinabuckeye1]

At this point I honestly believe that the Buckeyes are going to miss the Tournament altogether.  That is an amazing statement considering that six weeks ago they were 9-0 and #3 in the nation and exactly one month ago they were 11-1 and #2 in the nation. 

They are currently 2-6/12-7 and, per the tiers, they are expected to go 7-5 over their last 12 games to finish 9-11/19-12.  Those last 12 games ranked by likelihood of a tOSU win (most likely win first, least likely win last) are:

• vs Indiana 2/1
• vs Rutgers 2/12
• vs Illinois 3/5
• at Northwestern 1/26
• vs Purdue 2/15
• vs Michigan 3/1
• at Nebraska 2/27
• at Michigan 2/4
• vs Maryland 2/23
• at Iowa 2/20
• at Wisconsin 2/9
• at Michigan State 3/8

Per the tiers the Buckeyes should win all the home game except Maryland (#9) and lose all the road games except NU (#4) and UNL (#7).  Ie, they should win #1-#7 and lose #8-#12. 

At this point I just don't see it.  At this point I think that games #1-7 are basically toss-ups at best while #8-12 are essentially hopeless.  I am anticipating that we will soon drop the Buckeyes to tier-4 which would convert games #4-7 from projected wins to projected losses. 

Thus I expect the Buckeyes to go 3-9 or maybe 4-8 over their last 12 to finish either 5-15/15-16 or 6-14/16-15 and effectively out of contention for the NCAA Tournament. 

At this point, IMHO, there are two important questions for Gene Smith:

• Should we retain Coach Holtmann for the remainder of this season or dismiss him now? 
• Who are the available up-and-coming BB coaches we should consider? 

[847badgerfan]

Break the bank for Porter Moser from Loyola. 

[FearlessF]

I highly doubt the Badgers can pull off a road win against a pissed off Purdue team tonight.

And this schedule is bulljive. UW plays tonight and Monday night, both on the road. Bunch of crap. 0-2 is in the cards here.

why did Delaney hate the Badgers?

[847badgerfan]

I just can't stand Friday and Monday games. I'm sure the kids don't care either way.

Mrs. 847 asked me a while back if I wanted to go to Madison for a game. Saturday games are rare these days, and it sucks. There is only one left on the schedule, and it's next weekend against MSU. I can't make it up there next weekend, and the last time I tried to make it up there, a blizzard kept us from making it and we ate the tickets.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Interesting chart...


https://twitter.com/umhoops/status/1219649662833123329

Goes towards what I was saying earlier about Illinois and their matchup at Purdue. If Purdue still had guys like Carsen Edwards and Ryan Cline, they may have torched Illinois. But when Purdue has to run through the post to find any success, and Illinois defends the post better than any other offense... Not a good matchup.

Wisconsin is near the bottom of the conference in post defense, however. So Wisconsin, particularly at home where Purdue's shooting is just bad, not abysmal, is a much better matchup.

[ELA]

why did Delaney hate the Badgers?

MSU had that last year, and once the year before.  I thought they had gotten rid of it this year?  I guess it's more optics than anything.  Wisconsin plays Friday night-Monday night, both road, but MSU is played Thursday night, and Sunday afternoon, both road.  8:30/3, so the games are only 66.5 hours apart.  Wisconsin's games are 73.5 hours apart.

I hated the Friday-Monday thing, but in actuality I guess it's better than Thursday-Sunday, which has always been a thing 

[ELA]

Interesting chart...


https://twitter.com/umhoops/status/1219649662833123329

Goes towards what I was saying earlier about Illinois and their matchup at Purdue. If Purdue still had guys like Carsen Edwards and Ryan Cline, they may have torched Illinois. But when Purdue has to run through the post to find any success, and Illinois defends the post better than any other offense... Not a good matchup.

Wisconsin is near the bottom of the conference in post defense, however. So Wisconsin, particularly at home where Purdue's shooting is just bad, not abysmal, is a much better matchup.

Three Man Weave was discussing just how much Michigan was selling out on three point shooters, and it showed, but few teams doubled the post less than Michigan. They pointed out in a league like the Big Ten this year, with probably more teams with good bigs than we've seen in any conference in college ball since maybe the 90s, it simply doesn't make sense. That maybe in the NBA now, or in certain leagues it makes sense, but to be trying this in the Big Ten this year made no sense.