Somewhere upthread
@bwarbiany and I had a discussion of PU's NCAA chances based on their current projection. We project them to go 11-9 in conference and thus to finish 18-13 overall when including their 7-4 OOC record. He was a bit more pessimistic about their chances of getting in with that record than I am. Purdue had a pretty tough OOC including a great win over UVA and some other potential quality wins. Additionally, their four OOC losses are all likely to end up at least "not terrible". Thus, I think that if PU finishes 18-13 they would probably get in with a 1-1 performance in the BTT.
In that discussion
@bwarbiany had noted that he usually thinks of 20 wins as being "safe". I know he already knows this, but I thought now was a good time to expand on that. I generally agree, but not all 18-13 teams are created equal.
In our model we project Rutgers to finish with the exact same overall record as Purdue, 18-13. If both of those things happen, Rutgers will need to do a LOT more in the BTT than Purdue will. Purdue is currently 12th in the worldwide leader's "BPI" with the 29th ranked SoS. Rutgers, despite a better record is only 57th due to their SoS being a woeful 158th. Rutgers' two OOC losses were to St Bonaventure and Pitt and the likely only quality OOC win was over Seton Hall.
Prior to last year's tournament the record for most losses for an at-large team was 15. When you get into the range of 14 or 15 losses you need to have a REALLY good SoS to make up for it.
If Rutgers finishes 18-13/9-11 then loses in the BTT Title game to finish 21-14 I think they'd make it but anything less than that would be questionable at best. Purdue, on the other hand, would probably be in at 19-14 and would almost certainly be in at 20-14.
The reason I brought this up now is that, based on our projections, the B1G teams closest to the bubble are PU, RU, and IU (all projected to finish 18-13). That is why I said this upthread:
I think the RU @ UNL game tonight is big for the Scarlet Knights. Based on our predictions they will win this but it is a potentially dangerous game and one they cannot afford to lose.
Particularly for these three teams, extra losses would be seriously problematic. To be safe I think that RU needs to end up +2 in net upsets on our model. Ie, they need two positive upsets and zero negative upsets or three positive and one negative, etc. A loss in Lincoln tonight would really make that a big hill to climb for the Scarlet Knights.
FYI, BPI SoS rank for B1G teams:
- #6 Minnesota
- #13 Michigan
- #15 Wisconsin
- #17 Iowa
- #29 Purdue
- #41 Maryland
- #46 Ohio State
- #47 Illinois
- #51 Michigan State
- #70 Northwestern
- #93 Penn State
- #120 Nebraska
- #143 Indiana
- #158 Rutgers
IMHO, Rutgers', Nebraska's, and Penn State's weak OOC SoS is understandable/excusable because those teams generally aren't very good but Indian's is just a joke.
Minnesota should really be commended, their SoS is the best for a P5 team. The five teams ahead of them in SoS are each 3-10 or worse and hail from the SWAC, Southland, and MEAC. Those team's SoS will obviously drop like a rock as conference play begins while Minnesota is reasonably likely to end up #1.
