2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread

[mcwterps1]

Ah, great. 

Didn't realize Ohio State's next game was Maryland. 

Wisconsin wouldn't be a bad loss, but Maryland would be a great win.

Ohio State has been preparing for a week for this then. 

Maryland was just trying to get out of a funk against Indiana.

OSU beats Maryland handily. 

[ELA]

My recollection from my childhood in the early 90s was that the toughest building to play in, relative to how good the team actually was, was Minnesota, followed by Illinois.  It's been a minute, but Assembly Hall seems legit again.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Can't win a lot of games shooting 25%...

[medinabuckeye1]

OSU beats Maryland handily.

I certainly hope so, but the Buckeyes are not in good shape right now. 

Updated projections/BTT seeds/BTT match-ups:

• 16-4/25-5 Maryland (wins tiebreaker based on record against M)
• 16-4/24-7 Michigan State
• 14-6/23-8 Michigan
• 13-7/23-8 Ohio State
• 12-8/22-9 Penn State (wins tiebreaker based on record against the 16-4 teams)
• 12-8/21-10 Iowa
• 11-9/18-13 Purdue
• 9-11/16-15 Wisconsin (wins tiebreaker with IL and RU based on H2H2H)
• 9-11/18-13 Rutgers (second in H2H2H tiebreaker with UW and IL)
• 9-11/17-14 Illinois (last in H2H2H tiebreaker with UW and RU)
• 8-12/14-16 Minnesota (wins tiebreaker over IU based on record against tOSU)
• 8-12/18-13 Indiana
• 2-18/7-24 Nebraska
• 1-19/6-24 Northwestern

BTT in Indianapolis, IN:
Wednesday, March 11:

• #11 Minnesota vs #14 Northwestern, 9:30pm, BTN
• #12 Indiana vs #13 Nebraska, 6:00pm, BTN

Thursday, March 12:

• #5 Penn State vs IU/UNL, 2:30pm, BTN
• #6 Iowa vs MN/NU, 9pm, BTN
• #7 Purdue vs #10 Illinois, 6:30pm, BTN
• #8 Wisconsin vs #9 Rutgers, noon, BTN

Friday, March 13:

• #1 Maryland vs UW/RU, noon, BTN
• #2 Michigan State vs PU/IL, 6:30pm, BTN
• #3 Michigan vs IA/MN/NU, 9pm, BTN
• #4 Ohio State vs PSU/IU/UNL, 2:30pm, BTN

Saturday, March 14:

• UMD/UW/RU vs tOSU/PSU/IU/UNL, 1pm, CBS
• MSU/PU/IL vs M/IA/MN/NU, 3:30pm, CBS

Sunday, March 15:

• UMD/UW/RU/tOSU/PSU/IU/UNL vs MSU/PU/IL/M/IA/MN/NU, 3:30pm, CBS

[medinabuckeye1]

This week (Tues-Thurs) each team plays exactly one game:

• Maryland hosts Ohio State on Tuesday evening:  Maryland has lost two of their last four while Ohio State has lost three of their last five after both were top-5 not long ago.  Both could really use a win here. 
• Michigan State hosts Minnesota on Thursday:  Michigan State appears to be rounding into Izzo's usual tournament-ready team but the Gophers could be a challenge.  They have been looking good lately with wins over tOSU and OkSU and a near-miss at Purdue. 
• Michigan hosts Purdue on Thursday:  Both teams will be looking to rebound from disappointing losses. 
• Penn State visits Rutgers on Tuesday:  This game is important to the tournament hopes of two teams that appear to be in the running this year and usually are not. 
• Iowa visits Nebraska on Tuesday:  Iowa should roll. 
• Illinois visits Wisconsin on Wednesday:  This game is important to both teams' tournament chances. 
• Indiana hosts Northwestern on Wednesday:  Indiana cannot afford a loss here. 

[medinabuckeye1]

One thing stands out to me.  It appears that there is a HUMONGOUS gap between the bottom two teams in the conference and the rest:

• In our projection model we project #12 to be 8-12 which is tied with #11, one game behind #8-10, three games behind #7, etc but SIX GAMES ahead of #13.  
• BPI has our 11th and 12th best teams respectable at #42 and #44 then there is a HUMONGOUS gap to our 13th best team (#127) and our worst team (#158).  
• KenPom has our 11th and 12th best teams respectable at #42 and #43 then there is a HUMONGOUS gap to our 13th best team (#108) and our worst team (#155)

Looking particularly at BPI and KenPom we appear to have 12 tournament caliber teams and two bad teams.  

If that holds true, I think it will be an interesting advantage for the teams that end up seeded #11 and #12 in Indianapolis:  

The Wednesday games for the #11 and #12 seeds should be the ideal set-up for them.  It will provide an on-site warm-up but not be so challenging as to significantly wear them down.  Then, on Thursday they should be playing teams that are not substantially better than themselves.  I predict that whichever teams end up with the #11 and #12 seeds, at least one of them and probably both will still be playing on Friday.  

That could also prove to be an interesting situation heading into Friday's games.  The #1 and #2 seeds are guaranteed to play a team seeded between #7 and #10 that has only played one game so far.  Further, there isn't THAT big of a gap (per BPI/KenPom) between #1 and #10 because #10 is still a tournament-caliber team.  Thus the #1 and #2 seeds could find themselves with more difficult match-ups than the #3 and #4 seeds who, I think, will likely be playing against a team playing in their third game in three days.  

[ELA]

Ha, every Big Ten team except OSU and Rutgers with a top 16 projected SOS by Torvik


https://twitter.com/totally_t_bomb/status/1214051733976080384

[medinabuckeye1]

Ha, every Big Ten team except OSU and Rutgers with a top 16 projected SOS by Torvik


https://twitter.com/totally_t_bomb/status/1214051733976080384

Two things:
First, tOSU's is #18 so it isn't like theirs is chopped liver.  Your statement could have been "Ha, every B1G team except RU with a top-18 projected SoS."  

Second, how is tOSU's worse than IU's?  The Buckeyes clearly had a better OOC.  In conference:

• Each team misses one of two potential games against MSU, IA, IL, RU, and NU.  
• tOSU also misses PU.  
• IU also misses M.  

The conference schedules seem pretty comparable.  The major difference seems to be that IU's two games against tOSU are deemed tougher than tOSU's two games against IU.  

[ELA]

Sorry, when I initially looked, it cut off at 16.  I didn't see it down to 18

[MaximumSam]

Big Ten starting for real KenPom

1. MSU (3)
2. OSU (4)
3. Maryland (8)
4. Michigan (18)
5. Iowa (20)
6. PSU (21)
7. Purdue (23)
8. Wisconsin (24)
9. Illinois (33)
10. Minnesota (37)
11. Indiana (42)
12. Rutgers (43)
13. Northwestern (108)
14. Nebraska (155)

Good luck with that

[betarhoalphadelta]

Purdue's offensive efficiency, per KenPom, continues to fall. Now dropped to 73rd in the nation. Defense still top-ten though.

What's weird about Purdue is that their offense isn't bad. They move well. They get shooters open. They get good lucks near the rim. They rebound well on offense and get opportunties for easy put-backs. They just can't make those shots--especially on the road. When they make shots, the offense appears unstoppable, like vs Virginia. But when they don't... You get terrible performances like we saw @Nebraska and @Illinois. 

And nearly every one of these shooters is a better shooter than their percentages this year are showing. It's absolutely weird that they're unable to make shots. Especially that they can't even make lay-ups. 

I've never seen a team that misses so many open looks this badly. I can only hope that they can get out of this funk, because this could be a really good team if they just start making shots even a mediocre rate. 

[betarhoalphadelta]

So I took a closer look at the Purdue loss to Illinois. 37 points offensively might be the worst total since before the shot clock and 3 point line existed... 

Yet the fact that Purdue lost the game wasn't a huge surprise... It's not like we were supposed to win. 

We were an underdog per Vegas (by only a point). In the tier system we were projected to lose that game. According to Sagarin’s system we were projected to lose that game.

What was strange about the game was that we shot 25%. It wasn’t due to great defense by Illinois. It wasn’t due to players standing around instead of MOVE, MOVing as Painter always yells… It wasn’t due to getting bad looks. The ball just didn’t go through the hoop. We shot 34.9% from 2 point range, 17.6% from behind the arc, and 40% from the stripe. 

If you look at our season stats, we make 46.7% of 2pt shots, 33.2% of 3pt shots, and 65.1% of free throws. If you multiply those percentages by our 43 attempted 2 point shots, 17 attempted 3 point shots, and 10 attempted free throws…

…you get 63.5 expected points. We gave up 63 points to Illinois.

So MERELY shooting at season averages, this is an even game. Just as Vegas and Sagarin would predict (both had us as about 1 point dogs on the road).

[Abba]

Ah, great.

Didn't realize Ohio State's next game was Maryland.

Wisconsin wouldn't be a bad loss, but Maryland would be a great win.

Ohio State has been preparing for a week for this then.

Maryland was just trying to get out of a funk against Indiana.

OSU beats Maryland handily.

I don't know.  The Buckeyes are likely missing their glue guy in Kyle Young, while the rest of the team just can't stop turning it over.  Even in their big wins this year, they've had too many turnovers.  13.8 turnovers per game just seems like way too much.  Maryland is turning it over 12.4 times a game, while Wisconsin is only turning it over 11.2 times per game.  The turnovers and lack of defensive rebounding are leading to extra possession for the other team and are starting to show up in the L column.  This is a tough one when you really need a get right game.  Very similar to last January so far, ugh.

[medinabuckeye1]

I don't know.  The Buckeyes are likely missing their glue guy in Kyle Young, while the rest of the team just can't stop turning it over.  Even in their big wins this year, they've had too many turnovers.  13.8 turnovers per game just seems like way too much.  Maryland is turning it over 12.4 times a game, while Wisconsin is only turning it over 11.2 times per game.  The turnovers and lack of defensive rebounding are leading to extra possession for the other team and are starting to show up in the L column.  This is a tough one when you really need a get right game.  Very similar to last January so far, ugh.

The Buckeyes have got to avoid long scoring droughts, particularly in the second half.  

The Ohio State defense has been good enough to win each game this year with the possible exception of Minnesota.  They have only allowed >70 twice.  Once was the 84 that Minnesota scored and the other was allowing 74 to Penn State but that was in a romp of a 32 point, 106-74 win so who cares.  

They have three losses so far this year.  The Minnesota loss was possibly partly due to being short-handed but mostly I think it was just one of those things that happens.  Minnesota is a pretty good team and they just played better.  Ohio State's last lead was in the first 10 minutes and it never really felt like the Buckeyes had a chance in the second half.  

The other two losses came in games that felt VERY different.  The Buckeyes had solid looking leads in the second half of both games and just went cold.  
Against West Virginia:

• The Buckeyes were looking good up 40-34 early in the second half.  It looked like they might pull away and then they went scoreless for about four minutes.  Before they scored again they were down 41-40 and after that they never took more than a small lead.  
• With just under five minutes to play the Buckeyes hit a three to take a 54-53 lead and it looked like they might be in good shape despite trailing most of the previous eight minutes.  Unfortunately, by the time they scored again it was another three pointer nearly four minutes later to pull within four with less than a minute to play at 61-57.  

Against Wisconsin:

• The Buckeyes led for most of the game.  They led almost the entire first half then jumped out to a seven point lead early in the second half at 38-31.  Then they went scoreless for five-and-a-half minutes which allowed Wisconsin to pull within three before Ohio State's next bucket briefly pushed the lead back to six.  In total, from the 17:00 mark when tOSU pulled ahead 38-31 until 1:56 when Wisconsin pulled ahead for good, tOSU got outscored 21-13 in about 15 minutes.  Scoring 13 points in 15 minutes is on pace for <35 per game.  That is just awful.