| Alright Michigan, here we go. Beating up inferior competition isn't nothing, and I mean that. Harbaugh came in, and basically declared the days of dropping games to Maryland, Rutgers and Minnesota was over. The Wolverines have enough talent they should just go line up and win 9+ games a year at worst. But he's not the third highest paid coach in football to win 9 or 10 games, and the next step, the step where some national pundits get him, is these types of games. He's gone 3-7 against conference opponents who finished ranked, and this is the first of many chances left this year to fix that. It starts under center, where Michigan was 104-180 (57.8%) for 1,288 yards (161 ypg), 8 TDs and 4 INTs last year in their 8 wins, but 81-166 (48.8%) for 938 yards, 1 TDs and 6 INTs in their 5 losses. This is why Harbaugh went and got Shea Patterson. His quarterback play with Peters, and probably adding McCaffrey was good, but it wasn't enough to beat Wisconsin or Michigan State or Penn State, or most importantly Ohio State. Notre Dame in his first game in the uniform, on the road, was a tall task. This is at home, against a Wisconsin team that is not playing nearly as well as we assumed they would. They lose this, talking point #1 on Monday, we all know what it will be. Wisconsin is not as far off the mark as Michigan State seems to be, but they aren't particularly close either. Nobody thought the BYU loss was good, but perhaps a forgivable loss to a team that appeared to be improved. Well, since then, we've learned the Cal team that BYU lost to isn't actually good, and the COugars themselves have gotten run off the field in back to back weeks by Washington, and then Utah State. Never thought I'd say this but the Wisconsin problems on defense are glaring. We were shocked when BYU took the fight to them, but maybe we shouldn't have been. Bucky is 2-0 in Big Ten play, but no thanks to their defense. The fact that they are only giving up 20.5 ppg in conference play is a testament to how good they've been at ball control, averaging a league high 35:23 of possession a game. Because of that, their defense has only been on the field for 122 plays through 2 conference games, only Michigan's defense has been on the field less. But that makes sense, the Wolverines' 3.3 ypp allowed in Big Ten play is easily tops, almost a yard and a half PER PLAY ahead of #2 Michigan State (4.7 ypp). The Badgers are LAST by almost a full yard at 7.6 ypp. But they've kept opposing offenses off the field, and they've kept them out of the end zone. The only other defenses at Wisconsin's rate of touchdowns allowed all rank in the top 4 in the conference on defense. So is it smoke and mirrors, or is it the result of some fluky issues? Probably a little bit of both. Th enigma is their pass defense, which has surrendered a ghastly 9.9 ypa in conference play, and has an interception rate that ranks 11th...but is also holding opponents to 59.7% completions, which is actually 5th best. The best solution is an improved pass rush, which has been largely non-existent all year. But the loss of Isaiah Loudermilk to a leg injury doesn't seem to translate to that happening. Where all the fun is going to be is in the trenches when Wisconsin has the ball. Michigan's end are elite, nobody can question that, but can the handle up the middle against what PFF still says is the best offensive line in the Big Ten. The Badgers have to stay ahead of the sticks, because they are certainly better in the middle of the line than on the edges, and they don't want to let Gary and Winovich dial in Hornibrook. Their best pass blocking is probably simply forcing those guys to have to stay honest. A lot is on the play calling here. Wisconsin typically picks up such chunk run plays that they can use 1st down play action "recklessly" without fear of 2nd and 10. Against Michigan...eh? I think Wisconsin will have some success on offense, they did last year. But last year they just kind of hung around while Michigan's offense sputtered, before putting together 4 consecutive drives in the 2nd half where they scored 17 points, and tallied 232 yards on 29 plays (8.0 ypp). Up until that point, Michigan had stymied them to the tune of 97 yards on 27 plays (3.6 ypp). I don't think this year this Michigan offense will be stuck in neutral for so long waiting on Wisconsin to get going. |
