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Topic: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game

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847badgerfan

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Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #126 on: October 11, 2018, 04:10:44 PM »
Hornibrook is going to have to win this game for UW. M will stack the box for Taylor and force this.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Anonymous Coward

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Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #127 on: October 11, 2018, 04:25:44 PM »
Hornibrook is going to have to win this game for UW. M will stack the box for Taylor and force this.
Michigan might stack the box, but that's not their M.O. Usually they win up front with 4-6. Excepting goal line (or and-1) situations, Don Brown isn't an 8-man box kind of guy. His main priority is a free athlete to cover every eligible receiver in man (...) until a team proves perfectly one-dimensional (running or otherwise). And then, changing mid game, he sells out against their one thing and they're done dead.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #128 on: October 11, 2018, 04:28:57 PM »
Gerry DiNardo famously called Brown's defense "high risk/high reward" (right to his face - ha!) because he's famous for his blitzes. But even when blitzing, it's incredibly rare for that to reveal a structural weakness, let alone one the offense can find fast.
And that's really been the biggest story of his success at Michigan. Depending on the year, the run D has always been good to elite, but there's no defense in the country who has permitted fewer than 100y through the air in as many games as Michigan since Brown took over.
It's a very balanced formula.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 04:33:51 PM by Anonymous Coward »

Mdot21

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Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #129 on: October 11, 2018, 04:45:30 PM »
not sure I agree. I think his defenses are great. He blitzes a lot but that doesn't really bother me.

It's his desire to play man to man with his safeties and LB's like every f'ing snap that bothers me. Sure, you should be able to trust your CB's to hold up in man a lot. But not your safeties and especially not your LB's.

Haskins came in when OSU was down last year and he went 6 for 7 and took them in for the go ahead and never looked back precisely because Brown kept playing man. Made it easy pitch and catch for a frosh QB. Instead of disguising coverage and using zone blitzes to confuse a rookie QB they just let him play pitch and catch vs man to man across the board.

Don Brown is great but he leaves his defense exposed to really big plays because he relies on the safeties and LB's to hold up in man to man so much and 99% of them can't do it. That really reared it's ugly head against Penn State last year. The safeties were abused that game and so was Mike McCray. You need an athlete like Jaylon Smith (pre-injury) at LB AND Dax Hill at safety to play as much man to man across the board as Brown likes. And those sort of guys don't grow on trees. There isn't an athlete like Smith at LB in all of college football right now and not sure there's been a safety recruit like Dax Hill in many years. Hill is true 6'1.5+, 190 lbs with legitimate 4.3 speed and a 40" vertical. He's a safety that could play CB because he covers so well.

847badgerfan

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Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #130 on: October 11, 2018, 04:47:41 PM »
I'd say you can almost bet a paycheck on seeing 6-7 OL formations from UW this weekend.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Anonymous Coward

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Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #131 on: October 11, 2018, 04:52:57 PM »
I came back to add to what I wrote before because actually you can make Brown put 8 or 9 crashing guys in the box. But only if you elect to have that few TEs+WRs+eligible receivers out of the backfield. But unless you have a dominant QB and Calvin Johnson, playing out of alignments like that all game will be severely self-limiting versus Brown. He's very good at forcing offenses to become one-dimensional. Offenses shouldn't do that to themselves for free.
For as long as they can afford to, offenses should fight Brown's balance with balance.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 04:56:04 PM by Anonymous Coward »

Anonymous Coward

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Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #132 on: October 11, 2018, 05:04:57 PM »
Mdot, no doubt that many of the first downs Michigan surrenders are to safeties or linebackers in man coverage but (1) that's not every attempt. On many passing downs, when the safeties shade properly and don't take false steps, those same players are in excellent position to contest the ball (or prevent the pass). Eyeballing it, I'd say that's half the time that they nail man coverage. 

Also: (2) those passes are going for much more modest gains this year than last year. Every week, it seems like the longest pass allowed before the walk-one arrive is ~20 yards. And usually there are 0-2 of those. 

I'm sure this is why no opponent is shaping their game plan to exclusively or primarily go after those guys. Because even if it's "the weakness" of the D, it's still filled with B or B+ players (Metellus, Kinney, and Gil/Ross) who either make plays or permit medium gains. It's  very hard to consistently move the ball playing like that.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 05:47:43 PM by Anonymous Coward »

Mdot21

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Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #133 on: October 11, 2018, 06:25:56 PM »
I'm sure this is why no opponent is shaping their game plan to exclusively or primarily go after those guys. Because even if it's "the weakness" of the D, it's still filled with B or B+ players (Metellus, Kinney, and Gil/Ross) who either make plays or permit medium gains. It's very hard to consistently move the ball playing like that.
not sure I agree with those guys ratings. I see Mettelus and Kinnel as more of C+ players. Gil and Ross are TBD because neither has played very much. I like what I've seen out of Ross more than Gil. Although I have to say that I do like that Gil is bigger than Devin Bush and probably just as fast if not faster. Not sure he's got everything else down pat yet.
bolded part- that is why Brown's defenses flourishes in college. IN college it's very hard to consistently move the ball like that because most college teams you face just don't have the combination of QB, WR/TE's, RB, and OL. Need the OL that can block Brown's front, AND a QB that is accurate with his passes deep, AND WR's/TE's that can beat man coverage, AND RB's that can run routes and catch the ball. Very few college teams have even 2 of those things. Almost none have them all.

Mdot21

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Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #134 on: October 11, 2018, 06:37:41 PM »
Brandon Watson graded by PFF as the nations highest rated CB in Week 6 of the season with a 93.0 grade. What a season he's had so far. He was a solid, good player last year. Nothing like this. He's been by far the best CB on the team and he's taken his game up to another level though as a 5th year senior. LOVE seeing guys who do that. He's playing the best football he's ever played and is positioning himself to be an NFL draft pick.


https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1050464314300276737/photo/1

847badgerfan

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Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #135 on: October 11, 2018, 09:17:53 PM »
It will be very interesting to see what Paul Chryst can come up with to combat what Don Browne will throw at him. I'm thinking if Taylor and Co. can get to 180 or so, UW has a chance in this thing. If not, it will probably be a long night for Big Red.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Mdot21

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Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #136 on: October 11, 2018, 09:54:56 PM »
It will be very interesting to see what Paul Chryst can come up with to combat what Don Browne will throw at him. I'm thinking if Taylor and Co. can get to 180 or so, UW has a chance in this thing. If not, it will probably be a long night for Big Red.
Michigan's defense on average is holding it's opponents to 63% of their average rushing yards per game and 73% of average passing yardage.

Wisconsin is averaging 287 yards a game rushing. You do the math. Hint: it's 180.

Pulled that stat from this: it's a really interesting podcast called Secfans.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1n2U_X-kJU

their computer model predicts Michigan- 40, Wisconsin- 13

Wisconsin's defense is allowing 113% of it's opponents average rushing yards per game, and 105% in passing yards. Michigan is averaging 199.8 yards per game rushing. If that statistical trend holds, Michigan should rush for 225 this game.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 10:01:40 PM by Mdot21 »

Anonymous Coward

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Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #137 on: October 11, 2018, 10:03:28 PM »
180 is not unreasonable. This isn't Nebraska, NU or UMd (well, UMd has an explosive run offense but still, this is a whole 'nother level). Michigan can't hold everyone under its thumb, especially teams like this. Chryst already has major counterpunches in store and players to pull them off. If Michigan eventually wins, it won't be obvious until late. This will be a game for a long time.

I think the more controversial conversation would be about how many yards Hornibrook would have if Wisconsin gets 180 on the ground. My thought has been that - one way or the other - UW would earn 240 to 300 total yards.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 10:34:14 PM by Anonymous Coward »

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #138 on: October 11, 2018, 10:10:56 PM »
The ole Wisconsin effect could prove problematic for the Wolverines over the next week or two. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

847badgerfan

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Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
« Reply #139 on: October 11, 2018, 10:14:42 PM »
180 is not unreasonable. This isn't Nebraska, NU or UMd (well, UMd has an explosive run offense but still, this is a whole 'nother level). Michigan can't hold everyone under its thumb. If Michigan eventually wins, it won't be obvious until late. This will be a game for a long time.

I think the more controversial conversation would be about how many yards Hornibrook would have if Wisconsin gets 180 on the ground. My thought has been that - one way or the other - UW would earn 240 to 300 total yards.
Horni has to get to 180 too.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

 

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