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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2018, 07:10:19 AM

Title: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2018, 07:10:19 AM
I'm not liking this one at all. UW's secondary is a mess right now. All but one of the starters left the game on Saturday against Nebraska (one for targeting so he'll sit for a half) at one point or another and never returned. A mediocre pass rush is complicated by the loss of the best DE on the team, who left the field on crutches Saturday. Their best OLB is still hobbling around.



I'm not seeing much of a chance for UW here. They are really banged up.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #13 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: MarqHusker on October 08, 2018, 07:23:53 AM
The UW effect?
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #13 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2018, 07:41:27 AM
Haha. Yeah, I guess that's not gonna be a thing this season. The defense is too young and banged up to pound people right now.



Just saw that Game Day will be in Ann Arbor on Saturday. Must be a big game.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #13 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 08, 2018, 07:51:35 AM
Next man up
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #13 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2018, 07:59:06 AM
It was more like "next 2 men up" on Saturday. UW is beyond the two-deep now in the secondary, if the game was happening today. True freshmen don't often play for UW, but they are this season, out of necessity. UW doesn't recruit like OSU. Players need to develop. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #13 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Temp430 on October 08, 2018, 08:51:01 AM
Michigan is #13 in Coaches Poll and Wisconsin is #10.  In the AP Michigan is #12 and the Badgers are #15.   I like the Coaches poll better despite Michigan being favored by 7.5 points at this time.  Nor will I let the warm fuzzy from the pass blocking observed against Maryland make me very optimistic.  Wisconsin will be the best defense Michigan has seen to date despite Badgerfan's opening epitaph for the Badger defense.  The long range weather forecast for Saturday is for snow flurries and showers with an evening low of 38 the last time I looked.  Perfect weather for the Badgers to try their classic clock eating ball control running game.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2018, 09:10:02 AM
UW is also missing its best run blocking TE - out for the season. That is huge, especially for a game like this one. I think you'll see packages where UW will deploy 6, even 7, OL to try and run the ball this weekend. They did it against Iowa, which was the best defense they'd seen this season. That gets ramped up another notch with Michigan.



At least they got the road night game jitters out of the way in Iowa City. Michigan Stadium is never amped up like Kinnick is for a night game.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 08, 2018, 09:26:29 AM
I think we're all pretty injured (Michigan was down 3/4 of its starting DL versus Maryland and lost some depth behind the starters as well; we've also been down our best WR and RB co-starter), but that does sound particularly bad for UW. And they don't seem to be stemming the injury tide on defense.

This is an interesting game for a lot of reasons - for one because we play too seldom in an expanded Big Ten and, for two, because not many ranked teams run offenses like these anymore. It's also impactful for the whole dang season. Wisconsin has a fair strangehold on the West right now. But if they were to lose once or twice, and they do play two games like this one, things get very interesting over there. And for Michigan, I think it's generally noted that they've put 2017 behind them and are better compared to 2016 when the team came a literal inch from the CFP. But these next 3 games (UW, MSU, PSU) determine all of that. They need to go undefeated through these three to stay in the CFP race. However, winning 2/3 keeps them in the race for the East.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 08, 2018, 09:30:17 AM
At least they got the road night game jitters out of the way in Iowa City. Michigan Stadium is never amped up like Kinnick is for a night game.
Your guys have never played there to know. I admit this is the stereotype, but I think it's overstated. Night games in Ann Arbor are very different.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 08, 2018, 09:36:22 AM
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.addisonrecorder.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F09%2Fncaa-football-utah-michigan1-850x560.jpg&hash=733385ed3415b594e2955a8f75a53d14)
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2018, 09:36:46 AM
Well, lots of kids on UW had never played a road night game at all before Iowa. It's a young group. This will be the 4th night game (2nd road) for them this year. Road games are tough enough and then you add lights and fans who are juiced up more than normal. UW was fortunate to pull out of Iowa City with a W. I'm not optimistic about this one at all.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: fezzador on October 08, 2018, 10:01:34 AM
UW is also missing its best run blocking TE - out for the season. That is huge, especially for a game like this one. I think you'll see packages where UW will deploy 6, even 7, OL to try and run the ball this weekend. They did it against Iowa, which was the best defense they'd seen this season. That gets ramped up another notch with Michigan.



At least they got the road night game jitters out of the way in Iowa City. Michigan Stadium is never amped up like Kinnick is for a night game.
That's probably not saying much.  Iowa just gave up 31 to a one-dimensional Minnesota offense, and considering the injuries they sustained, they'll probably give up a similar amount to Indiana.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 08, 2018, 10:42:00 AM
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/zhhsGSgcw7w/hqdefault.jpg)
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: MarqHusker on October 08, 2018, 11:28:33 AM
This is now a sandbagging thread.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2018, 11:42:55 AM
It's not sandbagging unless you don't believe what you write. I believe what I write. I don't see UW being able to come out of this one with a W. Too many things are against it.



From the Chicago Trib:



Michigan is getting Wisconsin at the perfect time.

The Badgers beat Nebraska handily Saturday night but got beat up in the process. Faion Hicks was the only starting defensive back to make it through 60 minutes. Caesar Williams (leg) missed the game. Deron Harrell exited with a head injury. The marvelous D'Cota Dixon limped off with what looked like a right foot injury. Scott Nelson got ejected for targeting and will miss the first half of the Michigan game.

Coach Paul Chryst had to use true freshmen Donte Burton and Rachad Wildgoose as Nebraska threw for 407 yards, completing 26 of 44 throws.

"A lot of guys played," Chryst said, "and it wasn't always pretty."

It begs the question: When will the sons of defensive coordinator and legendary 5-foot-8 walk-on Jim Leonhard be ready? Wait, Leonhard is only 35? Never mind.

Michigan doesn't strike much fear in opponents with a passing game that ranks ninth in the Big Ten and averages less than one pass play of 40-plus yards per game. But still. Shea Patterson has a cannon, at least by college standards, and field stretcher Tarik Black is getting closer to returning. Wolverines Wire reported that, five weeks past foot surgery, he has shed his walking boot.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2018, 11:44:46 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Do_r3bKVsAAlr71.jpg)
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #13 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 08, 2018, 12:00:50 PM
Michigan is #13 in Coaches Poll and Wisconsin is #10.  In the AP Michigan is #12 and the Badgers are #15.   I like the Coaches poll better despite Michigan being favored by 7.5 points at this time.  Nor will I let the warm fuzzy from the pass blocking observed against Maryland make me very optimistic.  Wisconsin will be the best defense Michigan has seen to date despite Badgerfan's opening epitaph for the Badger defense.  The long range weather forecast for Saturday is for snow flurries and showers with an evening low of 38 the last time I looked.  Perfect weather for the Badgers to try their classic clock eating ball control running game.
Coaches/AP poll are pretty meaningless until the end of the year imo. S&P+ is probably more accurate.
Notre Dame is the best defense that Michigan has seen to date, including Wisconsin's. S&P+ has the Domers unit ranked #5. Wisconsin's is ranked 55th. ND might be the best defense they'll have seen all year.
It will be a close game just because Wisconsin is a good team and also because: Harboffense.
Michigan tends to play a lot better at home than they do on the road. That is the only thing giving me hope. They probably beat a good Wisconsin team at home in a close game this week, then turn around and get embarrassed in East Lansing the next.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: MarqHusker on October 08, 2018, 01:52:09 PM
Just doing some teasing.   It is getting to be the time of year, where the bumps and bruises take a toll.   Nothing going on in the non-existent N at NW thread.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 09, 2018, 08:57:41 PM
It won't be until December that we know for sure which QB match-up was the best of the season, but this will be one of the good ones:

(https://media.profootballfocus.com/2018/10/1806-All-Big-Ten-QBs.jpg)
(https://media.profootballfocus.com/2018/10/1806-All-Big-Ten-QBs-deep.jpg)
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 10, 2018, 01:18:46 AM
It won't be until December that we know for sure which QB match-up was the best of the season, but this will be one of the good ones:

(https://media.profootballfocus.com/2018/10/1806-All-Big-Ten-QBs.jpg)
(https://media.profootballfocus.com/2018/10/1806-All-Big-Ten-QBs-deep.jpg)
wonder how much better Shea's #'s here would be if
A) Tarik Black was in the line-up. He's kind of a big deal. And Michigan's best receiver.
B) Sean McKeon didn't suck and cause one of those INT's.
C) Zach Gentry caught a football that he had BOTH hands on and caused an INT.
D) The refs didn't rob him of that beautiful 40 yard TD strike to DPJ on a holding call on the RB that was nearly as bad as the one they called on Higdon at NW.
Shea has been excellent.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 10, 2018, 07:05:09 AM
Weird stats, I wonder how they calculate them?

Haskins has more yards, more TDs, less interceptions, higher completion %, higher QBR, higher passing rating, and HIGHER YARDS PER COMPLETION.
He is ahead of even Bama’s qb in all these except yards per.  

Patterson and Hornibrook are not even in the top 20 in those ratings.  
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: MaximumSam on October 10, 2018, 07:16:25 AM
Fairly certain we already know, and it was in Happy Valley a week and a half ago
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2018, 07:18:59 AM
Anyone see Hornibrook in Iowa City, 2.5 weeks ago? What he did against a bitter rival in the toughest venue in the conference was amazing.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 10, 2018, 07:20:40 AM
Fairly certain we already know, and it was in Happy Valley a week and a half ago
That’s how they calculate them?..
Or, are you saying they don’t take strength of opponent into consideration.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 10, 2018, 07:23:18 AM
Anyone see Hornibrook in Iowa City, 2.5 weeks ago? What he did against a bitter rival in the toughest venue in the conference was amazing.
Hey, I have been a Hornibrook fan for a long time.  I am not saying they aren’t both excellent QBs, because stat number 1 is called winning.
I am just curious how those PFF advanced stats look like that when they seem to ignore every single measure that you would look at for a qb, including QBR both adjusted and unadjusted- which take specific situations into account.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 10, 2018, 07:24:10 AM
wonder how much better Shea's #'s here would be if
A) Tarik Black was in the line-up. He's kind of a big deal. And Michigan's best receiver.
B) Sean McKeon didn't suck and cause one of those INT's.
C) Zach Gentry caught a football that he had BOTH hands on and caused an INT.
D) The refs didn't rob him of that beautiful 40 yard TD strike to DPJ on a holding call on the RB that was nearly as bad as the one they called on Higdon at NW.
Shea has been excellent.
You mean to tell me that a player's stats would improve if you eliminate all of the plays that didn't quite go the way they intended? 
Get out of here. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 10, 2018, 07:46:53 AM
Anyone see Hornibrook in Iowa City, 2.5 weeks ago? What he did against a bitter rival in the toughest venue in the conference was amazing.
Iowa's defense isn't Michigan's defense.
Having said that, Michigan's safeties can be had in man coverage. Not sure Wisc has the guys to expose them though. Josh Metellus and Tyree Kinnel are both just average players at best. If Wisconsin wants big plays- those are the guys to target. Don Brown's scheme leaves them in man to man way more than they should be. They just can't do it. Aren't good enough athletes to man up.
The CB's 1-2-3-4 is about as good as it gets. LaVert Hill, David Long, and Ambry Thomas are all uber-talented and were Army All-Americans top 100 recruits. Thomas is one of the fastest guys in the B1G. Those 3 guys are all future NFL draft picks. And the funny thing is fifth year senior 3* Brandon Watson has taken his game to the next level and has been even better than that ballyhooed trio. It's honestly as good and deep as I have ever seen Michigan at CB.
Devin Bush is an animal. Basically the perfect LB'er. His closing speed is unreal for a LB. Josh Ross is a big hitter, great instincts in the run game but kinda so so in coverage. Devin Gil might be even faster than Bush, but he's nowhere near the player. Doesn't have the same kind of natural instincts. He flashes that speed from time to time though on blitzes and cleans up in the screen game. Khaleke Hudson is a blitzing TFL machine. 5th year Noah Furbush gets reps sprinkled in- he's more of a pass rush specialist than every down LB though.
They've been banged up along the DL but former 5* hot-shot Aubrey Solomon who started some games last year as a true freshman should be back this week or next. 5th year senior DT Lawrence Marshall was injured but he's back to 100% and playing pretty well the past few weeks. Sounds like Rashan Gary and DT Carlo Kemp are good to go. DT Mike Dwumfour is still up in the air. He was carted off against Maryland but word is it's not nearly as serious as originally thought. Dwumfour started off pretty bad first couple weeks, but last two weeks he's come alive and has been a terror on the inside as a pass rusher. If he can't go, they might wind up having to slide Gary inside on pass rush downs. Chase Winovich has been playing out of his mind all year. So have a pair of sophomore DE's Kwity Paye and Josh Uche. Paye and Uche are explosive pass rushing ends. Both of those guys have honestly been the most explosive pass rushers on the defense- Winoivch and Gary included. DL had been pretty banged up to start the season but it's rounding into form.

Michigan's defense is very legit. The more that offense carries it's own weight- man the scarier that defense has started to look. Maryland basically had like 80 yards and 0 points that game. 7 of their points were from a kickoff return, and the last 14 points and 140 of their 220 yards were in garbage time in the 4th QTR against mostly back-ups.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 10, 2018, 07:50:27 AM
Weird stats, I wonder how they calculate them?

Haskins has more yards, more TDs, less interceptions, higher completion %, higher QBR, higher passing rating, and HIGHER YARDS PER COMPLETION.
He is ahead of even Bama’s qb in all these except yards per.  

Patterson and Hornibrook are not even in the top 20 in those ratings.  
I think the overall grade is that they watch the tape and judge the player based on the design of the play and outcome of the play.
As for the second stat- says right on there that's for deep passes, i.e. passes that are thrown 20+ yards in the air. So they throw out a 5 yard slant or a 8 yard crosser Haskins throws that one of his WR's takes 60 yards. They are adjusting the rating for passes that are thrown 20+ yards in the air.
I like Haskins, but a lot of his #'s are short easy passes his WR's take the distance.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 10, 2018, 08:20:29 AM
It's called cherry picking. 

Nobody in their right mind would take any of these guys over Haskins. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 10, 2018, 08:20:46 AM
While he does throw the ball on short passes, I completely disagree- respectfully- with that narrative. Seems like ever week Haskins gets a couple long TD passes into the end zone, like last week.
I went and read the PFF formula, and it is quite contrived.  As you mention, is does take into account “ time the ball is in the air”.  That penalizes a guy like Haskins  when he throws a bullet downfield that’s in the air about 2/3 of the time it would take most QBs to get it there.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2v8jDTTRdHQ (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2v8jDTTRdHQ)  Watch 47 second mark and again at 2:40 Mark..just to show a couple. Or better yet, take 5 minutes and watch the whole thing, and count how many of his TD throws were into the end zone bullets versu short passes the WR took to the house. Of the 6, 4 were thrown into the end zone and the other two were beauties that hit a guy in stride.

Not sure where this narrative is coming from, but Haskins has hit so many downfield TDs into the end zone this year I can’t even keep track of them any more.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2018, 08:21:39 AM
Cool. An Ohio State thread. Just dandy.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2018, 08:24:12 AM
Iowa's defense isn't Michigan's defense.  
No doubt, but it's a very good D line and it's a tough place to play at night. Posters here should know this.
Hopefully, playing Iowa's D line and the Iowa City night game helps UW this weekend, from a prep and confidence standpoint. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 10, 2018, 08:24:19 AM
It's called cherry picking.

Nobody in their right mind would take any of these guys over Haskins.
I don’t know about that, if I were running Wisconsin’s offense, I would want Hornibrook. And if I were running UM’s offense, I would take Patterson.
OSU has just decided to build the offense around Haskins arm talent and speed at WR, and you can’t fault them for that.  
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 10, 2018, 08:26:17 AM
Cool. An Ohio State thread. Just dandy.
Not really. I am talking about Hornibrook and Patterson stats that were presented here.
If that’s not allowed in this football forum I will excuse myself.
Who pissed in your Wheaties  lately?
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Temp430 on October 10, 2018, 08:34:55 AM
How good is Hornibrook at throwing the ball on the run?   I think we're going to see a lot of that from both teams Saturday night.

Yes, we all know the Buckeye's QB is the best at everything and should win the Heisman for the next three years.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: bayareabadger on October 10, 2018, 08:47:01 AM
How good is Hornibrook at throwing the ball on the run?   I think we're going to see a lot of that from both teams Saturday night.

Yes, we all know the Buckeye's QB is the best at everything and should win the Heisman for the next three years.
The answer to that question is bad 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: bayareabadger on October 10, 2018, 09:02:58 AM
Hey, I have been a Hornibrook fan for a long time.  I am not saying they aren’t both excellent QBs, because stat number 1 is called winning.
I am just curious how those PFF advanced stats look like that when they seem to ignore every single measure that you would look at for a qb, including QBR both adjusted and unadjusted- which take specific situations into account.
It I recall correctly, they take every play, watch give it a semi-arbitrarily ranking (my brain says something like between 2 and negative 2 or something), compile them and then normalize them to 100. 
I don’t think they’re be-all end-all, but they’re interesting. I’d imagine Haskins might get hurt by some of the screen reliance? Like a screen pass that goes 70 gets receivers and blockers nice grades, but doesn’t get the QB bonkers numbers.
Maybe a windows thing factors in as well? OSUs run game and simple passing game tends to produce super open receivers and easy throws, while UW’s ends with more tight windows? I’m just spitballing. 
(Not arguing for or against their efficacy. But with that much data, there’s always something to cherry pick/be bothered by) 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 10, 2018, 09:08:50 AM
How good is Hornibrook at throwing the ball on the run?   I think we're going to see a lot of that from both teams Saturday night.

Yes, we all know the Buckeye's QB is the best at everything and should win the Heisman for the next three years.
jesus lord- you cant even engage in a question about stats around here without people flipping out. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Temp430 on October 10, 2018, 09:13:44 AM
Sorry, didn't mean to rustle your leaves.  I would say Haskins is a Heisman front runner at this point. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 10, 2018, 09:18:06 AM
Cool. An Ohio State thread. Just dandy.
I understand France has some killer wine and cuisine and what not. Or maybe it was Italy. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 10, 2018, 09:22:41 AM
Sorry, didn't mean to rustle your leaves.  I would say Haskins is a Heisman front runner at this point.  
its ok Temp- I don't care about him in that way.  I truly didn't understand the stats from PFF that were posted, but I went and looked them up.
For this game- I see a GREAT offensive Line versus a GREAT defensive line as the key matchup.  Who can run the ball and possess it, and conversely who can stop the run.
Both teams are banged up- Badgers more so.
But I would favor the home team in this matchup and see no reason to think differently.
either way I cant wait to watch it.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: bayareabadger on October 10, 2018, 09:30:35 AM
It's called cherry picking.

Nobody in their right mind would take any of these guys over Haskins.
How do you mean cherry picking? 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Temp430 on October 10, 2018, 09:40:49 AM
Michigan is thin at DT due to injuries.  Thin enough where I think the rotation at DT will be impacted.  I'm expecting to see the Badgers try to run the ball up the gut at some point in the game (shocking, no?) to see if Michigan can stop it.  If Michigan has to bring up a safety to stop the run it will open up things for Hornibrook.  
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 10, 2018, 09:52:32 AM
I'll be rooting for Wisconsin, but it is difficult to see a path to victory. That offense isn't going to move at all against this D. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2018, 10:15:10 AM
Not really. I am talking about Hornibrook and Patterson stats that were presented here.
If that’s not allowed in this football forum I will excuse myself.
Who pissed in your Wheaties  lately?
I don't eat Wheaties, but maybe I should. I've just noticed a lot of pooping in threads lately, but it's cool. Just don't be surprised it I call it out, as a little nudge, so to speak. Don't be so sensative. That's for Texans, like @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) .
:29:
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2018, 10:15:39 AM
I'll be rooting for Wisconsin, but it is difficult to see a path to victory. That offense isn't going to move at all against this D.
Or an asteroid?
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2018, 10:16:38 AM
The answer to that question is bad
Eh, I think more like "not good" is appropriate. He used to be bad but he has gotten better at it.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 10, 2018, 10:48:11 AM
Or an asteroid?
No, not an asteroid. Or even a meteorite. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: MaximumSam on October 10, 2018, 11:12:15 AM
That’s how they calculate them?..
Or, are you saying they don’t take strength of opponent into consideration.
I mean the matchup of the two best quarterbacks
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 10, 2018, 11:32:04 AM
Fairly certain we already know, and it was in Happy Valley a week and a half ago
With McSorley's comp% hovering a centimeter abover 50%, I'm not at all sure any duel with him is guaranteed to have the conference's two best QBs. And so far Haskins, albeit great at it, has been permitted to feast with short throws and enormous YAC (see attached).
Even without PFF grading Hornibrook highest (and here I should admit that their rankings are not opponent-adjusted), I stick with the original claim. We can't know it until the end of the season. 
It could easily end up as Haskins-McSorley, Hornibrook-Patterson, McSorley-Hornibrook, Patterson-Haskins, or even Hornibrook-Haskins in a CCG. They are all in striking range and up there and season is 50% (or less) over (depending on schedule).
(https://media.profootballfocus.com/2018/10/1806-All-Big-Ten-QBs-aDOT-768x432.jpg)
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 10, 2018, 11:38:49 AM
Hb were you trying to quote me on that long post about Haskins where it just ended up quoting you? 

I think you are misunderstanding the adjusted deep pass rating. Has nothing to do with velocity. It’s just distance. They only look at passes that travel over 20 yards in the air from the LOS and rank that and that alone. They are strictly looking at the accuracy of balls thrown 20+ yards in the air from the LoS. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 10, 2018, 11:43:11 AM
I don't eat Wheaties, but maybe I should. I've just noticed a lot of pooping in threads lately, but it's cool. Just don't be surprised it I call it out, as a little nudge, so to speak. Don't be so sensative. That's for Texans, like @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) .
:29:
Haha. Just go the front page and look at all the current threads.  Count how many are OSU?  Zero- correct?  Now count them for “other schools”.     Lol it’s always that way
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 10, 2018, 11:46:03 AM
Btw. Just an idea of how insane Patterson’s deep adjusted rating is...if the season ended today, his rating on deep passes would be the 2nd highest PFF has ever graded. The highest? Baker Mayfield’s 2017 season which was 62.5% on deep passes.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 10, 2018, 11:48:24 AM
With McSorley's comp% hovering a centimeter abover 50%, I'm not at all sure any duel with him is guaranteed to have the conference's two best QBs. And so far Haskins, albeit great at it, has been permitted to feast with short throws and enormous YAC (see attached).
Even without PFF grading Hornibrook highest (and here I should admit that their rankings are not opponent-adjusted), I stick with the original claim. We can't know it until the end of the season.
It could easily end up as Haskins-McSorley, Hornibrook-Patterson, McSorley-Hornibrook, Patterson-Haskins, or even Hornibrook-Haskins in a CCG. They are all in striking range and up there and season is 50% (or less) over (depending on schedule).
(https://media.profootballfocus.com/2018/10/1806-All-Big-Ten-QBs-aDOT-768x432.jpg)
Simply a false narrative.  Haskins has completed more passes of 20 yards into the end zone than either QBs
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 10, 2018, 11:51:09 AM
Hb have you charted every single one of Haskins throws? 

We’re not talking throws into the end zone. We’re talking throws of 20 yards or more in the air past the LOS. That’s it. 

Haskins has been great but he throws a shit ton of short balls his receivers gain YAC on. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 10, 2018, 11:52:28 AM
Paterson by the way has now thrown more td passes in 6 games than Michigan’s QBs in 2017 threw all season in 13 games. Lol.

And he’s completing 15% higher % of this throws than Michigan’s QBs in 2017.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 10, 2018, 11:52:38 AM
Hb were you trying to quote me on that long post about Haskins where it just ended up quoting you?

I think you are misunderstanding the adjusted deep pass rating. Has nothing to do with velocity. It’s just distance. They only look at passes that travel over 20 yards in the air from the LOS and rank that and that alone. They are strictly looking at the accuracy of balls thrown 20+ yards in the air from the LoS.
In reading how they come to their rankings they include how long ball is in the air.   
Not disagreeing with how good Patterson has been. Just the false narrative that Haskins isn’t accurate on long balls- he has been nothing short of spectacular. And the narrative that he gets his tds on short passes.  He gets a lot, but he has a ton that were bullets thrown perfectly into the end zone. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Temp430 on October 10, 2018, 11:53:50 AM
Sounds like Michigan should be throwing deep while Nelson remains ejected if they ever let ‘em have the ball.  Did I read Nebraska passed for 400 yards on the Badgers?  
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 10, 2018, 11:55:01 AM
Hb have you charted every single one of Haskins throws?

We’re not talking throws into the end zone. We’re talking throws of 20 yards or more in the air past the LOS. That’s it.

Haskins has been great but he throws a shit ton of short balls his receivers gain YAC on.
Yes he does.  It he has a bunch that were well over 20 yards, and into the end zone   
Seems like he has a couple every game. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 10, 2018, 11:57:38 AM
Hb not disagreeing. Haskins has been phenomenal. 

He does get a lot of YAC. But I see that as him being accurate on the shorter passes. Have to be or the WR’s can’t get YAC.

Just a function of the offenses. Urban’s philosophy is smarter than Harbaugh’s. Can’t imagine what Urb would do with a RB like Evans or an Ath like Ambry Thomas. He’d make them playmakers. At Michigan they are after thoughts. 

As for how they rate the adjusted deep ball- I’ve looked through everything I can find from PFF and other sources and it only talks about distance. Haven’t seen them mention time or velocity in anything.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 10, 2018, 11:59:44 AM
Haha. Just go the front page and look at all the current threads.  Count how many are OSU?  Zero- correct?  Now count them for “other schools”.     Lol it’s always that way
It's okay to turn the SOC thread into one about France, or the Stirring the Pot thread into one about Whisky. But we have to draw the line at calling into question a chart that says Hornibrook and Patterson are head and shoulders above the rest of the Big Ten QBs. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: MaximumSam on October 10, 2018, 12:12:16 PM
With McSorley's comp% hovering a centimeter abover 50%, I'm not at all sure any duel with him is guaranteed to have the conference's two best QBs. And so far Haskins, albeit great at it, has been permitted to feast with short throws and enormous YAC (see attached).
Even without PFF grading Hornibrook highest (and here I should admit that their rankings are not opponent-adjusted), I stick with the original claim. We can't know it until the end of the season.
It could easily end up as Haskins-McSorley, Hornibrook-Patterson, McSorley-Hornibrook, Patterson-Haskins, or even Hornibrook-Haskins in a CCG. They are all in striking range and up there and season is 50% (or less) over (depending on schedule).
(https://media.profootballfocus.com/2018/10/1806-All-Big-Ten-QBs-aDOT-768x432.jpg)
I mean, I guess.  But getting lots of YAC is directly a result of making the right read and making a great throw.  How many short throws do we see where the receiver has to stop and can't make much of a play?  I'm skeptical of any "rating" that dings a quarterback for making great plays.  I'm not skeptical of my eyeballs.  Haskins is uber accurate, can wing it all over the field, makes great reads and great throws, and has 25 TD passes.  McSorley isn't as accurate, but throws it deeper, and also runs wonderfully and is 6th in the conference in rushing.  Who knows how things will shake out, but from what I've seen they are clearly the top two.  
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 10, 2018, 12:18:52 PM
McSorely isn’t anywhere near accurate enough for me to say he’s clearly the best. 

I think he’s a really good runner. He leaves a lot to be desired with his throwing. And a lot of his deep balls are freaking arm punt prayers he gets bailed out on. His arm is very weak. 

I hate to be that guy who always says OSU or Mich have the best this or that. But my eye test tells me they have the two best QBs in this conference. Michigan’s OL hasn’t been great at pass blocking. Patterson ability to escape and throw accurately on the run has made a pretty trash unit look respectable and better than they actually are. 

Wisconsin and OSU meanwhile are in PFF’s top 10 overall OL units. Wisconsin at 2 and OSU at 6. Michigan’s OL will never sniff that list.

And Patterson and Haskins are the two highest rated HS QB recruits starting at QB in the conference. So go figure. Sometimes those guys get it right. Sometimes.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 10, 2018, 12:20:48 PM
Hb not disagreeing. Haskins has been phenomenal.

He does get a lot of YAC. But I see that as him being accurate on the shorter passes. Have to be or the WR’s can’t get YAC.

Just a function of the offenses. Urban’s philosophy is smarter than Harbaugh’s. Can’t imagine what Urb would do with a RB like Evans or an Ath like Ambry Thomas. He’d make them playmakers. At Michigan they are after thoughts.

As for how they rate the adjusted deep ball- I’ve looked through everything I can find from PFF and other sources and it only talks about distance. Haven’t seen them mention time or velocity in anything.
Yes we are on the same page. Ironically just now on my lunch hour listening to the satellite channel ESPNU they were talking about this very game in these two quarterbacks. Neuheisel said that Shea will be good because he’s consistent but the game will come down to whether Hornibrooke can win the game for Wisconsin. But he does not remember some of Hornibrooks better performances obviously . Then they had some other expert that basically was saying what you just said, that Patterson is limited by Michigan’s offense
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 10, 2018, 12:50:01 PM
In reading how they come to their rankings they include how long ball is in the air.  
Not disagreeing with how good Patterson has been. Just the false narrative that Haskins isn’t accurate on long balls- he has been nothing short of spectacular. And the narrative that he gets his tds on short passes.  He gets a lot, but he has a ton that were bullets thrown perfectly into the end zone.
Can you do me a favor and copy/paste where they say that? I can't find it. What I found was this: (https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/college-breaking-down-the-big-ten-quarterbacks-after-week-6)
"Adjusted completion percentage tracks the number of passes that were only deemed catchable upon release from the quarterback. It takes away passes that are dropped, passes batted at the line of scrimmage, those in which the QB was hit as he threw, spiked balls and throwaways to showcase just how many passes were put in a catchable place for their respective receivers. "
And that image was adjusted completion percentage specifically for passes that traveled more than 20 yards. None of that emphasizes the number of seconds a ball is in the air.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 10, 2018, 12:58:28 PM
Simply a false narrative.  Haskins has completed more passes of 20 yards into the end zone than either QBs
I don't know about that stat ("more passes of 20 yards into the endzone ... "), but that's different than the graphic I presented. 
The one I presented isn't about 20+ yard receptions that go for touchdowns but specifically about receptions [whether or not they include a TD] that travel 20+ yards in the air BEFORE they are even caught. 
So it's not a measure of how far the receivers are ultimately going but about how far the ball is going before touching the receiver. 
Which is a pretty fair way to judge a deep passing game. 
This isn't to ding Haskins. He deserves all the credit for his comp%, yards, and TDs. Those are prolific numbers. But it's fair and emotionless to point out that his numbers so far have required prolific YAC. Again, that doesn't mean he doesn't deserve credit for reading the defense just right to enable that YAC. It's just to point out that his "long passes" have generally been short or intermediate passes with long runs. Maybe he can be equally prolific with true deep balls (here: defined as a ball that travels in the air 20+ yards downfield before touching a receiver), but he hasn't been tasked with consistently showing that yet.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 10, 2018, 01:03:25 PM
It's okay to turn the SOC thread into one about France, or the Stirring the Pot thread into one about Whisky. But we have to draw the line at calling into question a chart that says Hornibrook and Patterson are head and shoulders above the rest of the Big Ten QBs.
Ummmm ... that's not what that chart says. The chart argues that 4 QBs are clustered together at the top.
As for the topic at hand, it has devolved into a lot of sensitivity at the idea that maybe not every metric argues Haskins as the conference's top QB. I figured the much more touchy button would be how I pointed out that McSorely has a season comp% just over 50% and that it would be wise for us to wait a long time before crowning Haskins/McSorely as clearly the best QB battle of the season.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2018, 01:08:18 PM
It's okay to turn the SOC thread into one about France, or the Stirring the Pot thread into one about Whisky. But we have to draw the line at calling into question a chart that says Hornibrook and Patterson are head and shoulders above the rest of the Big Ten QBs.
SOC threads are unlimited and contain a myriad of topics - as they should. That's what they are for, and have been since ELA started creating them 10 years ago, or so. I love those. The stirring the pot thread was multi-topic from the start. It started as a musing and has morphed into what it is - and it's still ALL pot-stirring if you look closely.

It's not about calling a chart into question. Everything gets called into question around here.

Being all puffy about Haskins' greatness, in a Michigan/Wisconsin game thread? You know, starting a new thread is not illegal here, and it's also FREE!!
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 10, 2018, 01:11:49 PM
I mean, I guess.  But getting lots of YAC is directly a result of making the right read and making a great throw. How many short throws do we see where the receiver has to stop and can't make much of a play?  
Of course.
I'm skeptical of any "rating" that dings a quarterback for making great plays.  I'm not skeptical of my eyeballs.  Haskins is uber accurate, can wing it all over the field, makes great reads and great throws, and has 25 TD passes.  McSorley isn't as accurate, but throws it deeper, and also runs wonderfully and is 6th in the conference in rushing.  Who knows how things will shake out, but from what I've seen they are clearly the top two.  
I think this conversation is suffering for lack of clarity.
The original graphic (QB ratings) clustered Hornibrook, McSorely, Haskins and Patterson at the top of the conference (in that order), and it was based on grades for every throw (accounting for difficulty, situation, and read). Haskins isn't really getting dinged at all (he's getting praised, albeit less than you seem to like). Also, I doubt YAC dominates that rating.
The last graphic I posted (avg depth of target) does put Haskins toward the bottom of the conference, but why would anyone read a list like that and swear that it's good to be on top and bad to be on bottom. "Average depth per target" isn't a rating. No one's skill is being measured there. It's just posted for context.
What context was it posted for? The point was raised that Haskins is feasting on high YAC plays. Good for him and good for OSU. There's nothing bad about that. However, there is a remaining question - What happens when OSU finally faces a defense capable of taking away short and intermediate passes? And although this "average depth per target" context can't answer that question, it is relevant insofar as it reminds us that we just don't know the answer yet.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 10, 2018, 01:34:48 PM
Of course.I think this conversation is suffering for lack of clarity.
The original graphic (QB ratings) clustered Hornibrook, McSorely, Haskins and Patterson at the top of the conference (in that order), and it was based on grades for every throw (accounting for difficulty, situation, and read). Haskins isn't really getting dinged at all (he's getting praised). Also, YAC doesn't seem to dominate that the rating.
The last graphic I posted (avg depth of target) does put Haskins toward the bottom of the conference, but why would anyone read a list like that and swear that it's good to be on top and bad to be on bottom. "Average depth per target" isn't a rating. No one's skill is being measured there. It's just posted for context.
What context was it posted for? The point was raised that Haskins is feasting on high YAC plays. Good for him and good for OSU. There's nothing bad about that. However, there is a remaining question - What happens when OSU finally faces a defense capable of taking away short and intermediate passes? And although this "average depth per target" context can't answer that question, it is relevant insofar as it reminds us that we just don't know the answer yet.

Success with Short passes with YAC and passes downfield of 20 or more are not mutually exclusive.
I am a big fan of all three of these QBs albeit for different reasons. For example, I marvel at Patterson’s ability to be accurate while scrambling.  It’s amazing. 
Haskins is far from perfect but he has amazed me with his accuracy, specifically to hit WRs in stride on intermediate routes which cause YAC. But his ability to hit downfield, long passes with uncanny accuracy has been incredible, and plentiful.   
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: MaximumSam on October 10, 2018, 02:11:20 PM
If you just counted Haskins' touchdowns that went over 20 yards in the air, he would still be seventh in the conference in touchdown passes.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 10, 2018, 02:28:15 PM
If you just counted Haskins' touchdowns that went over 20 yards in the air, he would still be seventh in the conference in touchdown passes.
I'm not sure which point you're making yet. You stated an observation but stopped short of a conclusion. "And therefore ..." (That would help us be clear.)
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: MaximumSam on October 10, 2018, 02:31:50 PM
I'm not sure which point you're making yet. You stated an observation but stopped short of a conclusion. "And therefore ..." (That would help us be clear.)
The idea that he hasn't shown the ability to throw the ball downfield consistently is not true, as evidenced by the statistics.  Taking away all short and intermediate passes, he still is doing as well as other B1G Qb's.  
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 10, 2018, 03:06:02 PM
The idea that he hasn't shown the ability to throw the ball downfield consistently is not true, as evidenced by the statistics.  Taking away all short and intermediate passes, he still is doing as well as other B1G Qb's.  
But (a) you changed the stat to be TDs over 20+ yards through the air and even then (b) acknowledged that he's in the middle of the pack (i.e., he's not "doing as well as [all] other B1G Qb's").
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: bayareabadger on October 10, 2018, 03:27:59 PM
In reading how they come to their rankings they include how long ball is in the air.  
Not disagreeing with how good Patterson has been. Just the false narrative that Haskins isn’t accurate on long balls- he has been nothing short of spectacular. And the narrative that he gets his tds on short passes.  He gets a lot, but he has a ton that were bullets thrown perfectly into the end zone.
Could I get a link to that?
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 10, 2018, 03:36:32 PM
 You know, starting a new thread is not illegal here, and it's also FREE!!
Eh, I'm not really a thread startin' kinda guy. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 10, 2018, 03:39:39 PM
As for this game, obviously I'm coming from the Michigan perspective and am wondering how many points Michigan will have to earn to win (like, where is that line in the sand?) and I think the number is somewhere in the range of 25 to 30. 

Haterz Disclaimerz: This is not any kind of guarantee that Michigan's offense will get there. I'm just predicting a defensive slugfest and for UW to score fewer than 30, maybe around 20-24.

Then again, I guess it's more fun to put one's neck out there: A 30-23 type game could be it.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 10, 2018, 03:44:35 PM
Fewer than 30 yards per quarter, perhaps. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 10, 2018, 03:48:21 PM
Could I get a link to that?
The black-and-white world of what should have been is only part of the divergence of the PFF grades from conventional statistics. Not all 20-yard completions are equal, even if the yardage gained is, and the resulting passer rating, etc. Quarterbacks can be heavily reliant on yards after the catch from their receivers to generate their production, and other players have to carry the passing offense far more by themselves.
The difference in how much of a quarterback’s passing yardage comes in the air can be huge. This season just 44.2 percent of Brett Hundley’s (https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/brett-hundley/9580) yardage came in the air, while the rest was the work of receivers after the catch. That was the lowest mark in the NFL. His average depth of target was 7.8 yards, despite taking 36 deep shots across 10 games of significant snaps.
At the other end of the scale, 65.1 percent of Jameis Winston (https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/jameis-winston/9434)’s yardage came with the ball in the air, 63.9 percent for Carson Wentz (https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/carson-wentz/10636). Winston’s average depth of target was 11.1 yards, or 3.3 yards further down field than Hundley every time he attempted a pass on average. No matter how you quantify it, Winston was being asked to do significantly more with the football than Hundley.
Quarterbacks can of course influence yards after the catch, as impressive ball placement can allow receivers to catch passes without breaking stride, gaining additional yardage they wouldn’t have been able to, if they were forced to stop or adjust significantly to an errant pass. The grading accounts for these differences in accuracy, as what would ordinarily have been positively graded passes can lose some positive grade if the pass was inaccurate enough that it caused substantial yards to be left on the table because of the adjustment it forced.
Next comes the ball placement aspect — how much the same completion asks of the receiver versus being presented to him on a plate. Not all jump balls are alike, and some are really all about the adjustment from the receiver or the work he does to just take the ball away from a defender covering him. While a certain intangible credit can be given to quarterbacks for giving top receivers a chance to make a play, the play they actually make doesn’t make a poorly placed throw any better. (True jump balls are completed about 20 percent of the time.)
On the other hand, there are jump balls that don’t give a defensive back an opportunity to make a play, but require an impressive one from the receiver to reward the gamble. These nuances in ball placement and the reliance on receivers to complete their end of the play or defensive backs to fail to take advantage of their opportunities are another reason why statistics often just do not capture with accuracy what the quarterback did as opposed to what it resulted in.
(https://media.profootballfocus.com/2018/01/USATSI_10439772-1024x634.jpg)
Defining the PFF Grading System: Big-time throws and turnover-worthy throws
Now that we have a basic understanding of the PFF grading system, we can define the throw grades into different buckets.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/category/nfl (https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/category/nfl)

Kind of weird-- I cant count the number of "big Time" downfield NFL throws he has made this year that have amazed even the announcers.



Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: bayareabadger on October 10, 2018, 03:50:47 PM
Yes he does.  It he has a bunch that were well over 20 yards, and into the end zone  
Seems like he has a couple every game.
Lets dig into this.
He's got 24 TDs?
13 are listed as 20 or more yards. 
In the air those ones went 
6 yards
38
41
-1
24
41
18
1
12
-3
42
5
39
So he has six of those that went more than 20 air yards (We can quibble about 11-20 yarders that we caught at varying depths of the end zone). Those game against Rutgers (2), TCU (1), Tulane (1), IU (2). 
The great secret is passes longer than 20 yards in the air are a tiny part of any offense. The tracking of that stat is mostly an oddity, and it makes people mad because we like getting mad when we feel our guys are slighted. The same way we see a weird ranking and get bent out of shape trying to figure out how it's wronging us. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 10, 2018, 03:52:08 PM
As for this game, obviously I'm coming from the Michigan perspective and am wondering how many points Michigan will have to earn to win (like, where is that line in the sand?) and I think the number is somewhere in the range of 25 to 30.

Haterz Disclaimerz: This is not any kind of guarantee that Michigan's offense will get there. I'm just predicting a defensive slugfest and for UW to score fewer than 30, maybe around 20-24.

Then again, I guess it's more fun to put one's neck out there: A 30-23 type game could be it.
probably about right.  I see 24-20 ish kind of of game
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: MrNubbz on October 10, 2018, 03:52:30 PM
Eh, I'm not really a thread startin' kinda guy.
Of course you're not then you'd leave yourself open to chop busting for starting a crappy thread.Or even worse,one with no replies 
           :039:
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: bayareabadger on October 10, 2018, 03:56:18 PM
The black-and-white world of what should have been is only part of the divergence of the PFF grades from conventional statistics. Not all 20-yard completions are equal, even if the yardage gained is, and the resulting passer rating, etc. Quarterbacks can be heavily reliant on yards after the catch from their receivers to generate their production, and other players have to carry the passing offense far more by themselves.
The difference in how much of a quarterback’s passing yardage comes in the air can be huge. This season just 44.2 percent of Brett Hundley’s (https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/brett-hundley/9580) yardage came in the air, while the rest was the work of receivers after the catch. That was the lowest mark in the NFL. His average depth of target was 7.8 yards, despite taking 36 deep shots across 10 games of significant snaps.
At the other end of the scale, 65.1 percent of Jameis Winston (https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/jameis-winston/9434)’s yardage came with the ball in the air, 63.9 percent for Carson Wentz (https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/carson-wentz/10636). Winston’s average depth of target was 11.1 yards, or 3.3 yards further down field than Hundley every time he attempted a pass on average. No matter how you quantify it, Winston was being asked to do significantly more with the football than Hundley.
Quarterbacks can of course influence yards after the catch, as impressive ball placement can allow receivers to catch passes without breaking stride, gaining additional yardage they wouldn’t have been able to, if they were forced to stop or adjust significantly to an errant pass. The grading accounts for these differences in accuracy, as what would ordinarily have been positively graded passes can lose some positive grade if the pass was inaccurate enough that it caused substantial yards to be left on the table because of the adjustment it forced.
Next comes the ball placement aspect — how much the same completion asks of the receiver versus being presented to him on a plate. Not all jump balls are alike, and some are really all about the adjustment from the receiver or the work he does to just take the ball away from a defender covering him. While a certain intangible credit can be given to quarterbacks for giving top receivers a chance to make a play, the play they actually make doesn’t make a poorly placed throw any better. (True jump balls are completed about 20 percent of the time.)
On the other hand, there are jump balls that don’t give a defensive back an opportunity to make a play, but require an impressive one from the receiver to reward the gamble. These nuances in ball placement and the reliance on receivers to complete their end of the play or defensive backs to fail to take advantage of their opportunities are another reason why statistics often just do not capture with accuracy what the quarterback did as opposed to what it resulted in.
(https://media.profootballfocus.com/2018/01/USATSI_10439772-1024x634.jpg)
Defining the PFF Grading System: Big-time throws and turnover-worthy throws
Now that we have a basic understanding of the PFF grading system, we can define the throw grades into different buckets.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/category/nfl (https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/category/nfl)

Kind of weird-- I cant count the number of "big Time" downfield NFL throws he has made this year that have amazed even the announcers.




Nowhere in there does it say how long the ball is in the air, unless I'm really missing something. Unless you're referring to the downfield distance. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 10, 2018, 03:56:35 PM
Lets dig into this.
He's got 24 TDs?
13 are listed as 20 or more yards.
In the air those ones went
6 yards
38
41
-1
24
41
18
1
12
-3
42
5
39
So he has six of those that went more than 20 air yards (We can quibble about 11-20 yarders that we caught at varying depths of the end zone). Those game against Rutgers (2), TCU (1), Tulane (1), IU (2).
The great secret is passes longer than 20 yards in the air are a tiny part of any offense. The tracking of that stat is mostly an oddity, and it makes people mad because we like getting mad when we feel our guys are slighted. The same way we see a weird ranking and get bent out of shape trying to figure out how it's wronging us.
nobody is out of shape that I can see.
Who in the conference has more?  Also- when your at the 18 and you throw a perfect pass into the endzone, it does not count as over 20, but it certainly is not the WR getting YAC.   I can think of at lest 4 or 5 more that fall into that category.
I will be shocked if any QB in the conference has anywhere near that many TD passes that were true deep balls into or near the end zone.
Just because the guy hits his WR in stride- others want to kid themselves that that's all he is doing.  Heck- just go watch the vid I attached earlier.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: bayareabadger on October 10, 2018, 03:57:57 PM
(Also worth noting the deep balls fall into that uncanny valley of things that stick out in extreme cases and tend to feel more dramatic than they are)
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 10, 2018, 03:59:25 PM
Of course you're not then you'd leave yourself open to chop busting for starting a crappy thread.Or even worse,one with no replies
           :039:
That, and I've also been admonished for starting threads too soon, starting threads that are normally started by other posters, and so forth. 
Best to just let someone else start 'em, and then jump in all willy nilly without reading the entire thread first. O0
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: MaximumSam on October 10, 2018, 04:20:26 PM
But (a) you changed the stat to be TDs over 20+ yards through the air and even then (b) acknowledged that he's in the middle of the pack (i.e., he's not "doing as well as [all] other B1G Qb's").
No, I'm just changing his stats, and comparing it to other quarterbacks entire body of work
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: FearlessF on October 10, 2018, 04:22:27 PM
Eh, I'm not really a thread startin' kinda guy.
slacker
pick up your game
throw something downfield more than 20 yards once in awhile!
;)
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 10, 2018, 04:22:56 PM
No, I'm just changing his stats, and comparing it to other quarterbacks entire body of work
That's fine, but even then it didn't accomplish what you said it did.
Beyond that, it's still probably true that comp% on all deep passes better measure of efficiency on deep passes. Narrowing it to TDs beyond 20 removes a chunk of data and doesn't really add much in return.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: bayareabadger on October 10, 2018, 04:26:12 PM
nobody is out of shape that I can see.
Who in the conference has more?  Also- when your at the 18 and you throw a perfect pass into the endzone, it does not count as over 20, but it certainly is not the WR getting YAC.   I can think of at lest 4 or 5 more that fall into that category.
I will be shocked if any QB in the conference has anywhere near that many TD passes that were true deep balls into or near the end zone.
Just because the guy hits his WR in stride- others want to kid themselves that that's all he is doing.  Heck- just go watch the vid I attached earlier.
I don’t know who has more. I don’t have an army of film people. But someone does. And they said who has the best completion percentage of passes more than 20 yards. And their seems to be a lot of offense taken at what those raw numbers are. 
If you would like, a subscription will allow you to see if Haskins has the most in the conference. I’ll bet he has the most, and the most deep throws, thus a lower percentage. 
I watched the video. There are two aforementioned deep balls. One 14-yarder and a 17-yard TD that had 20-21 air yards. That’s nice. 
(And I know people are bent because they respond to posts ending in “this doesn’t actually matter much,” with more, complaining about this and that, plus questions asking someone else to go find thinks out for them)
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: MrNubbz on October 10, 2018, 04:27:03 PM
slacker
pick up your game
throw something downfield more than 20 yards once in awhile!
;)
Brutus is a  yards after catch type of guy
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: FearlessF on October 10, 2018, 04:29:50 PM
Brutus gets is a  yards after catch type of guy
so, he's a yac'er and therefore a slacker
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: FearlessF on October 10, 2018, 04:32:14 PM
ya know, there's a silver lining to having the Huskers start the conference slate at 0-3?

when the west teams play the east teams, it's very easy for me to root for the Badgers vs the Wolverines, cause I'm not the least concerned about trying to win the west

Go RED!
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 10, 2018, 04:33:04 PM
Could be worse. 

I could be one of those fellers that starts a new thread for every jersey number. :great:
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: bayareabadger on October 10, 2018, 04:36:06 PM
Coaches/AP poll are pretty meaningless until the end of the year imo. S&P+ is probably more accurate.
Notre Dame is the best defense that Michigan has seen to date, including Wisconsin's. S&P+ has the Domers unit ranked #5. Wisconsin's is ranked 55th. ND might be the best defense they'll have seen all year.
It will be a close game just because Wisconsin is a good team and also because: Harboffense.
Michigan tends to play a lot better at home than they do on the road. That is the only thing giving me hope. They probably beat a good Wisconsin team at home in a close game this week, then turn around and get embarrassed in East Lansing the next.
Thank you for grabbing the S&P data so I didn’t have to .
I’m excited to watch Harboffense with skin in the game. It’s weird how he runs oft creative schemes in a manner that feels like it’s all the cliches of boring offense. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: MrNubbz on October 10, 2018, 04:37:16 PM
ya know, there's a silver lining to having the Huskers start the conference slate at 0-3?
Instead of a welcome thread we can have an auf wiedersehen thread?
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: MrNubbz on October 10, 2018, 04:38:31 PM
so, he's a yac'er and therefore a slacker
You can show yerself out
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: FearlessF on October 10, 2018, 04:48:28 PM
Instead of a welcome thread we can have an auf wiedersehen thread?
oh, we're not showing ourselves out
the money is too good and the Horns won't let us back in the old Big 8
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2018, 05:02:36 PM
As for this game, obviously I'm coming from the Michigan perspective and am wondering how many points Michigan will have to earn to win (like, where is that line in the sand?) and I think the number is somewhere in the range of 25 to 30.

Haterz Disclaimerz: This is not any kind of guarantee that Michigan's offense will get there. I'm just predicting a defensive slugfest and for UW to score fewer than 30, maybe around 20-24.

Then again, I guess it's more fun to put one's neck out there: A 30-23 type game could be it.
In the pool I play in (this was the game of the week) I took 47 total points as the tiebreaker for my picks. So, like 24-23 or something.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2018, 05:08:58 PM
My take on it right now is M 31 UW 16, with M getting a TD on defense.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 10, 2018, 05:21:47 PM
Yes we are on the same page. Ironically just now on my lunch hour listening to the satellite channel ESPNU they were talking about this very game in these two quarterbacks. Neuheisel said that Shea will be good because he’s consistent but the game will come down to whether Hornibrooke can win the game for Wisconsin. But he does not remember some of Hornibrooks better performances obviously . Then they had some other expert that basically was saying what you just said, that Patterson is limited by Michigan’s offense
Nuhesial is an idiot. And he's a Harbaugh hater.
Patterson's ability to put up #'s and pad stats has definitely been a little bit limited by the scheme. He was only throwing like 15 times a game vs WMU, SMU, NEB. And they don't use him on runs like at all. Which is crazy because he can absolutely do that.
As far as Meyer vs Harbaugh's offensive philosophy- proof is in the pudding. Meyer's teams always put up yards and points. Harbaugh's teams struggle to.
Chris Evans would be Curtis Samuel light if he was in a Buckeye uniform and he'd be used as a weapon as a receiver in space out of the backfield and in the slot. Evans isn't used like this at all in Harbaugh's offense. It's frustrating as hell. Ambry Thomas is probably one of the 3 fastest kids in this conference and when they try to use him on offense it's as a decoy and nothing more. Kid looks like Ted Ginn with the ball in his hands and they don't get the ball in his hands at all. Instead- yeah, let's throw it to TE Sean McKeon's sucky ass or hand it off to a FB or Higdon for a 1 yard gain instead. MAKES SENSE.

Evans, Thomas, DPJ, Nico Collins, Tarik Black- would all look great in a Meyer style offense.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 10, 2018, 05:33:38 PM
Ambry is a BEAST.  
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 10, 2018, 05:40:25 PM
Thank you for grabbing the S&P data so I didn’t have to .
I’m excited to watch Harboffense with skin in the game. It’s weird how he runs oft creative schemes in a manner that feels like it’s all the cliches of boring offense.
some of his stuff in the run game is very creative. his passing scheme is just bad. they don't use any tempo or pace and short throws to get the defense on it's heals. It honestly feels like he likes throwing to his TE's and FB's more than he likes throwing to his RB's and WR's. Which makes zero since because right now he's got Chris Evans at RB who can run routes like a receiver and catch the ball like a receiver and is a nightmare in the open field. He's also got a senior slot receiver in Grant Perry who is a precise route runner. And he's got a pair of sophomore receivers who are legit in DPJ and Nico Collins. Collins is 6'4+ and can run and go up and snatch the ball. DPJ is a freak of nature athlete. This kid ran a laser timed 4.42 at the opening and a 4.02 shuttle and had a 45" vertical at 6'2, 190 pounds as a 15 year old sophomore in high school. He's got another freak athlete on that squad that should be playing offense a lot more than he does in Ambry Thomas. True frosh Ronnie Bell has flashed. Zach Gentry is the best receiving TE he's had at Michigan. Jake Butt included. And when he gets Tarik Black it'll just be an embarrassment of riches. Shea Patterson is LEGIT. By far the best QB he's had at Michigan and it's not close.

And with this collection of serious talent he will produce a mediocre offense. It's asinine.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 10, 2018, 05:43:33 PM
Ambry is a BEAST.  
he came flying like a bat out of hell out of nowhere and almost tackled Ty Johnson on his 98 yard TD kick return. Ambry got his hands on him just couldn't tackle him. Ambry still too thin and his body type looks like a WR to me, not a CB.
Throw on some highlights of Ginn and then some of Thomas. They have like the exact same build, lanky and thin. And a similar gait when they run. And they both FLY.
Thomas reminds me so much of Ginn it's eerie. Kid should be playing WR and returning punts and kicks. Give DPJ a break and let him focus on route running only. He doesn't need to waste reps practicing punt return or blocking. His route running is what needs work.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: MrNubbz on October 10, 2018, 06:02:24 PM
oh, we're not showing ourselves out
the money is too good and the Horns won't let us back in the old Big 8
Old bitter drunken Bevo
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 10, 2018, 06:32:33 PM
My take on it right now is M 31 UW 16, with M getting a TD on defense.
In which case, you'd win your pool. A result we'll both root for.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 10, 2018, 06:37:15 PM
he came flying like a bat out of hell out of nowhere and almost tackled Ty Johnson on his 98 yard TD kick return. Ambry got his hands on him just couldn't tackle him. Ambry still too thin and his body type looks like a WR to me, not a CB.
Throw on some highlights of Ginn and then some of Thomas. They have like the exact same build, lanky and thin. And a similar gait when they run. And they both FLY.
Thomas reminds me so much of Ginn it's eerie. Kid should be playing WR and returning punts and kicks. Give DPJ a break and let him focus on route running only. He doesn't need to waste reps practicing punt return or blocking. His route running is what needs work.
He stood out that way in high school and at all the camps with the all star college guys
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 10, 2018, 07:18:24 PM
In which case, you'd win your pool. A result we'll both root for.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: TyphonInc on October 10, 2018, 07:41:58 PM
Quote from:  (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?topic=5916.msg73911#msg73911)Honestbuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=37) on Wed Oct 10 2018 08:20:29 GMT-0400 (Eastern Daylight Time)

Not sure where this narrative is coming from, but Haskins has hit so many downfield TDs into the end zone this year I can’t even keep track of them any more.
Because everyone watched the OSU PSU game and his 2 4th quarter TD's were short passes that the wideouts turned into great plays.
Also, the stat measures passes over 20 yards. and yes in the highlights 4 of the 6 passes were into the endzone, but only 2 of the passes were over 20 yards.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 10, 2018, 08:31:07 PM
DT Aubrey Solomon is practicing. Which means there is a chance he plays in this game.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 10, 2018, 09:30:47 PM
Because everyone watched the OSU PSU game and his 2 4th quarter TD's were short passes that the wideouts turned into great plays.
Also, the stat measures passes over 20 yards. and yes in the highlights 4 of the 6 passes were into the endzone, but only 2 of the passes were over 20 yards.
But the point is, they were no short throws with the WR turning them into YAC.  
And, one of them was from about the 15 but was thrown at least 7 yards into the end zone.
Or perhaps you agree with the crowd, Haskins is only good for short throws. 
But then you would be in disagreement with the pro scouts who are drooling over his NFL arm on long and intermediate throws.
Or perhaps you feel that Haskins having a good but not great outing at night, at arguably the hardest place to play, is indicative of his ceiling. But then you would have to look at Bama’s QB and say the same since he hasn’t played anyone yet, or Michigan’s QB, who played one legit team so far and looked pretty bad.
For the record, I will go with the scouts and what is obvious to my eyes, and that is Haskins throws the ball all over the park with accuracy and consistency.  He hits tight windows, throws guys open and makes very few mistakes.   
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 10, 2018, 09:50:38 PM
DT Aubrey Solomon is practicing. Which means there is a chance he plays in this game.
Holy crap! Based on little beyond healthy skepticism, I doubt he's back for this game but I'm now feeling great about his return before PSU. And this DL can operate on an entirely different level if he's actually ready.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 11, 2018, 05:43:25 AM
Is there an injury report?
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Temp430 on October 11, 2018, 07:16:07 AM
No formal report.  Coach Harbaugh has said he would be fine if the Big Ten required them but right now he just gives comments on injuries at pressers.  "He's working through something..."  Comments like that.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Temp430 on October 11, 2018, 08:29:09 AM
Jay Harbaugh says he expects Chris Evans to be back for Wisconsin.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 11, 2018, 09:09:08 AM
I'm guessing that Gary and Kemp return in this one, but that Dwumfour stays out. We're going to have to get a *lot* of snaps from Mone.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Temp430 on October 11, 2018, 10:27:18 AM
Given Wisconsin’s OL and RB now would be a good time to get Solomon back.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 11, 2018, 11:27:37 AM
The Michigan OL is 15th in Team Pass Blocking Efficiency (per PFF).
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/college-top-25-observations-week-6 (https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/college-top-25-observations-week-6)
Pay Ed Warriner his money!
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: MaximumSam on October 11, 2018, 11:41:23 AM
That's fine, but even then it didn't accomplish what you said it did.
Beyond that, it's still probably true that comp% on all deep passes better measure of efficiency on deep passes. Narrowing it to TDs beyond 20 removes a chunk of data and doesn't really add much in return.
Not sure what you mean.  The second highest QB has 11 TDs total - his deep passing TD's keep in in the mix with every other B1G QB.  That is my point.  The idea that somehow he isn't going downfield or isn't effective down the field is not true and the stats bear that out.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 11, 2018, 11:46:47 AM
The Michigan OL is 15th in Team Pass Blocking Efficiency (per PFF).
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/college-top-25-observations-week-6 (https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/college-top-25-observations-week-6)
Pay Ed Warriner his money!
Am I reading correctly that UW is 6th in that thing?
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 11, 2018, 12:01:55 PM
What is the over/under on the number of punts? 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 11, 2018, 12:03:48 PM
Am I reading correctly that UW is 6th in that thing?
No, it grades Benzschawel that high as an individual but claims the UW team is #73. 
It also puts Iowa at #12 and OSU at #22.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 11, 2018, 12:05:49 PM
New injury report is out for UW. Losing Loudermilk is huge. He is by far UW's best defensive end, when healthy. That has not been often this season. The others need to step up in a big way. Really need Van Ginkel the CB's to play too. All are starters.


(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DpPHWfdXoAAocSw.jpg)
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 11, 2018, 03:00:09 PM
5* DE Zach Harrison visiting for this game.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 11, 2018, 03:04:01 PM
Can he suit up for UW so long as he's there?
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: MrNubbz on October 11, 2018, 04:07:21 PM
New injury report is out for UW. Losing Loudermilk is huge. He is by far UW's best defensive end, when healthy.
UW looking at injury disadvantages for sure now.Dixon playing hobbled, Nelson comes back in the 2nd half that certainly doesn't help.Pray for rain at least Bucky has a running game.If Patterson is going to look the part saturday's the time to do it
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 11, 2018, 04:10:44 PM
Hornibrook is going to have to win this game for UW. M will stack the box for Taylor and force this.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 11, 2018, 04:25:44 PM
Hornibrook is going to have to win this game for UW. M will stack the box for Taylor and force this.
Michigan might stack the box, but that's not their M.O. Usually they win up front with 4-6. Excepting goal line (or and-1) situations, Don Brown isn't an 8-man box kind of guy. His main priority is a free athlete to cover every eligible receiver in man (...) until a team proves perfectly one-dimensional (running or otherwise). And then, changing mid game, he sells out against their one thing and they're done dead.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 11, 2018, 04:28:57 PM
Gerry DiNardo famously called Brown's defense "high risk/high reward" (right to his face - ha!) because he's famous for his blitzes. But even when blitzing, it's incredibly rare for that to reveal a structural weakness, let alone one the offense can find fast.
And that's really been the biggest story of his success at Michigan. Depending on the year, the run D has always been good to elite, but there's no defense in the country who has permitted fewer than 100y through the air in as many games as Michigan since Brown took over.
It's a very balanced formula.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 11, 2018, 04:45:30 PM
not sure I agree. I think his defenses are great. He blitzes a lot but that doesn't really bother me.

It's his desire to play man to man with his safeties and LB's like every f'ing snap that bothers me. Sure, you should be able to trust your CB's to hold up in man a lot. But not your safeties and especially not your LB's.

Haskins came in when OSU was down last year and he went 6 for 7 and took them in for the go ahead and never looked back precisely because Brown kept playing man. Made it easy pitch and catch for a frosh QB. Instead of disguising coverage and using zone blitzes to confuse a rookie QB they just let him play pitch and catch vs man to man across the board.

Don Brown is great but he leaves his defense exposed to really big plays because he relies on the safeties and LB's to hold up in man to man so much and 99% of them can't do it. That really reared it's ugly head against Penn State last year. The safeties were abused that game and so was Mike McCray. You need an athlete like Jaylon Smith (pre-injury) at LB AND Dax Hill at safety to play as much man to man across the board as Brown likes. And those sort of guys don't grow on trees. There isn't an athlete like Smith at LB in all of college football right now and not sure there's been a safety recruit like Dax Hill in many years. Hill is true 6'1.5+, 190 lbs with legitimate 4.3 speed and a 40" vertical. He's a safety that could play CB because he covers so well.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 11, 2018, 04:47:41 PM
I'd say you can almost bet a paycheck on seeing 6-7 OL formations from UW this weekend.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 11, 2018, 04:52:57 PM
I came back to add to what I wrote before because actually you can make Brown put 8 or 9 crashing guys in the box. But only if you elect to have that few TEs+WRs+eligible receivers out of the backfield. But unless you have a dominant QB and Calvin Johnson, playing out of alignments like that all game will be severely self-limiting versus Brown. He's very good at forcing offenses to become one-dimensional. Offenses shouldn't do that to themselves for free.
For as long as they can afford to, offenses should fight Brown's balance with balance.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 11, 2018, 05:04:57 PM
Mdot, no doubt that many of the first downs Michigan surrenders are to safeties or linebackers in man coverage but (1) that's not every attempt. On many passing downs, when the safeties shade properly and don't take false steps, those same players are in excellent position to contest the ball (or prevent the pass). Eyeballing it, I'd say that's half the time that they nail man coverage. 

Also: (2) those passes are going for much more modest gains this year than last year. Every week, it seems like the longest pass allowed before the walk-one arrive is ~20 yards. And usually there are 0-2 of those. 

I'm sure this is why no opponent is shaping their game plan to exclusively or primarily go after those guys. Because even if it's "the weakness" of the D, it's still filled with B or B+ players (Metellus, Kinney, and Gil/Ross) who either make plays or permit medium gains. It's  very hard to consistently move the ball playing like that.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 11, 2018, 06:25:56 PM
I'm sure this is why no opponent is shaping their game plan to exclusively or primarily go after those guys. Because even if it's "the weakness" of the D, it's still filled with B or B+ players (Metellus, Kinney, and Gil/Ross) who either make plays or permit medium gains. It's very hard to consistently move the ball playing like that.
not sure I agree with those guys ratings. I see Mettelus and Kinnel as more of C+ players. Gil and Ross are TBD because neither has played very much. I like what I've seen out of Ross more than Gil. Although I have to say that I do like that Gil is bigger than Devin Bush and probably just as fast if not faster. Not sure he's got everything else down pat yet.
bolded part- that is why Brown's defenses flourishes in college. IN college it's very hard to consistently move the ball like that because most college teams you face just don't have the combination of QB, WR/TE's, RB, and OL. Need the OL that can block Brown's front, AND a QB that is accurate with his passes deep, AND WR's/TE's that can beat man coverage, AND RB's that can run routes and catch the ball. Very few college teams have even 2 of those things. Almost none have them all.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 11, 2018, 06:37:41 PM
Brandon Watson graded by PFF as the nations highest rated CB in Week 6 of the season with a 93.0 grade. What a season he's had so far. He was a solid, good player last year. Nothing like this. He's been by far the best CB on the team and he's taken his game up to another level though as a 5th year senior. LOVE seeing guys who do that. He's playing the best football he's ever played and is positioning himself to be an NFL draft pick.

https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1050464314300276737/photo/1
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 11, 2018, 09:17:53 PM
It will be very interesting to see what Paul Chryst can come up with to combat what Don Browne will throw at him. I'm thinking if Taylor and Co. can get to 180 or so, UW has a chance in this thing. If not, it will probably be a long night for Big Red.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 11, 2018, 09:54:56 PM
It will be very interesting to see what Paul Chryst can come up with to combat what Don Browne will throw at him. I'm thinking if Taylor and Co. can get to 180 or so, UW has a chance in this thing. If not, it will probably be a long night for Big Red.
Michigan's defense on average is holding it's opponents to 63% of their average rushing yards per game and 73% of average passing yardage.

Wisconsin is averaging 287 yards a game rushing. You do the math. Hint: it's 180.

Pulled that stat from this: it's a really interesting podcast called Secfans.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1n2U_X-kJU

their computer model predicts Michigan- 40, Wisconsin- 13

Wisconsin's defense is allowing 113% of it's opponents average rushing yards per game, and 105% in passing yards. Michigan is averaging 199.8 yards per game rushing. If that statistical trend holds, Michigan should rush for 225 this game.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 11, 2018, 10:03:28 PM
180 is not unreasonable. This isn't Nebraska, NU or UMd (well, UMd has an explosive run offense but still, this is a whole 'nother level). Michigan can't hold everyone under its thumb, especially teams like this. Chryst already has major counterpunches in store and players to pull them off. If Michigan eventually wins, it won't be obvious until late. This will be a game for a long time.

I think the more controversial conversation would be about how many yards Hornibrook would have if Wisconsin gets 180 on the ground. My thought has been that - one way or the other - UW would earn 240 to 300 total yards.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 11, 2018, 10:10:56 PM
The ole Wisconsin effect could prove problematic for the Wolverines over the next week or two. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 11, 2018, 10:14:42 PM
180 is not unreasonable. This isn't Nebraska, NU or UMd (well, UMd has an explosive run offense but still, this is a whole 'nother level). Michigan can't hold everyone under its thumb. If Michigan eventually wins, it won't be obvious until late. This will be a game for a long time.

I think the more controversial conversation would be about how many yards Hornibrook would have if Wisconsin gets 180 on the ground. My thought has been that - one way or the other - UW would earn 240 to 300 total yards.
Horni has to get to 180 too.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 11, 2018, 11:22:17 PM
how are Wisconsin's special teams? Outside of that bad 98 yard kick return Michigan gave up to Ty Johnson, their special teams have honestly been fantastic. Punter is booming them. Kicker can hit 50 yarders in his sleep. Ambry Thomas and DPJ have both had returns for TD's as return men.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 12, 2018, 06:44:31 AM
Mostly touchbacks on KO, and mostly pins inside the 15 on punts.



Returns have been just OK. #1 has been close to ripping a TD several times. Eventually it will happen. He's just a true freshman.



Gags is basically money on FG/XP.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 12, 2018, 12:17:31 PM
One fun aspect of this game which could be interesting:

What if my preseason prediction comes true, that these two teams play twice this season?  ( which is a VERY real possibility)

Do any of the walking dead who can’t play, make it back for the second game and if so, will they make the outcome different. I think of examples like last season. Wasn’t it Georgia who got trounced by Auburn, but cleaned Auburn’s clock in the SECCG?
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 12, 2018, 12:58:27 PM
That's fun to imagine. And it could be ENTIRELY different. But Michigan (prob) has to either go undefeated or lose only once (against anyone except OSU) to get there. That's an awful lot of proving left to do.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: SFBadger96 on October 12, 2018, 02:11:34 PM
I'm super late to this thread, and won't read all of it. Bottom line: Michigan is justifiably heavily favored (I think the line is currently 10). Their loss is understandable, against a good team. Wisconsin's loss was a major upset, but frankly, not out of character with how the team is playing. The Badgers' offense is essentially the same as last season. Not any better, not any worse. The defense is substantially worse than last season, and with the dinged up secondary, it will be even worse this weekend.

Impossible for the Badgers? No.
Unlikely? Yes. Wisconsin has a terrible record in Ann Arbor--even when they have a better team than Michigan, and this game isn't likely to change that.

So...

There's NO WAY Wisconsin wins. :-)
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 12, 2018, 03:28:31 PM
I'm super late to this thread, and won't read all of it. Bottom line: Michigan is justifiably heavily favored (I think the line is currently 10). Their loss is understandable, against a good team. Wisconsin's loss was a major upset, but frankly, not out of character with how the team is playing. The Badgers' offense is essentially the same as last season. Not any better, not any worse. The defense is substantially worse than last season, and with the dinged up secondary, it will be even worse this weekend.

Impossible for the Badgers? No.
Unlikely? Yes. Wisconsin has a terrible record in Ann Arbor--even when they have a better team than Michigan, and this game isn't likely to change that.

So...

There's NO WAY Wisconsin wins. :-)
I see your voodoo magic and raise you.
There's NO WAY that Michigan wins. :P
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: ELA on October 12, 2018, 04:08:02 PM

***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK***
#15 Wisconsin Badgers (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan Wolverines (3-0, 5-1)
7:30 - Ann Arbor, MI - ABC
Alright Michigan, here we go.  Beating up inferior competition isn't nothing, and I mean that.  Harbaugh came in, and basically declared the days of dropping games to Maryland, Rutgers and Minnesota was over.  The Wolverines have enough talent they should just go line up and win 9+ games a year at worst.  But he's not the third highest paid coach in football to win 9 or 10 games, and the next step, the step where some national pundits get him, is these types of games.  He's gone 3-7 against conference opponents who finished ranked, and this is the first of many chances left this year to fix that.  It starts under center, where Michigan was 104-180 (57.8%) for 1,288 yards (161 ypg), 8 TDs and 4 INTs last year in their 8 wins, but 81-166 (48.8%) for 938 yards, 1 TDs and 6 INTs in their 5 losses.  This is why Harbaugh went and got Shea Patterson.  His quarterback play with Peters, and probably adding McCaffrey was good, but it wasn't enough to beat Wisconsin or Michigan State or Penn State, or most importantly Ohio State.  Notre Dame in his first game in the uniform, on the road, was a tall task.  This is at home, against a Wisconsin team that is not playing nearly as well as we assumed they would.  They lose this, talking point #1 on Monday, we all know what it will be.  Wisconsin is not as far off the mark as Michigan State seems to be, but they aren't particularly close either.  Nobody thought the BYU loss was good, but perhaps a forgivable loss to a team that appeared to be improved.  Well, since then, we've learned the Cal team that BYU lost to isn't actually good, and the COugars themselves have gotten run off the field in back to back weeks by Washington, and then Utah State.  Never thought I'd say this but the Wisconsin problems on defense are glaring.  We were shocked when BYU took the fight to them, but maybe we shouldn't have been.  Bucky is 2-0 in Big Ten play, but no thanks to their defense.  The fact that they are only giving up 20.5 ppg in conference play is a testament to how good they've been at ball control, averaging a league high 35:23 of possession a game.  Because of that, their defense has only been on the field for 122 plays through 2 conference games, only Michigan's defense has been on the field less.  But that makes sense, the Wolverines' 3.3 ypp allowed in Big Ten play is easily tops, almost a yard and a half PER PLAY ahead of #2 Michigan State (4.7 ypp).  The Badgers are LAST by almost a full yard at 7.6 ypp.  But they've kept opposing offenses off the field, and they've kept them out of the end zone.  The only other defenses at Wisconsin's rate of touchdowns allowed all rank in the top 4 in the conference on defense.  So is it smoke and mirrors, or is it the result of some fluky issues?  Probably a little bit of both.  Th enigma is their pass defense, which has surrendered a ghastly 9.9 ypa in conference play, and has an interception rate that ranks 11th...but is also holding opponents to 59.7% completions, which is actually 5th best.  The best solution is an improved pass rush, which has been largely non-existent all year.  But the loss of Isaiah Loudermilk to a leg injury doesn't seem to translate to that happening.  Where all the fun is going to be is in the trenches when Wisconsin has the ball.  Michigan's end are elite, nobody can question that, but can the handle up the middle against what PFF still says is the best offensive line in the Big Ten.  The Badgers have to stay ahead of the sticks, because they are certainly better in the middle of the line than on the edges, and they don't want to let Gary and Winovich dial in Hornibrook.  Their best pass blocking is probably simply forcing those guys to have to stay honest.  A lot is on the play calling here.  Wisconsin typically picks up such chunk run plays that they can use 1st down play action "recklessly" without fear of 2nd and 10.  Against Michigan...eh?  I think Wisconsin will have some success on offense, they did last year.  But last year they just kind of hung around while Michigan's offense sputtered, before putting together 4 consecutive drives in the 2nd half where they scored 17 points, and tallied 232 yards on 29 plays (8.0 ypp).  Up until that point, Michigan had stymied them to the tune of 97 yards on 27 plays (3.6 ypp).  I don't think this year this Michigan offense will be stuck in neutral for so long waiting on Wisconsin to get going.
MICHIGAN 31, WISCONSIN 23
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 12, 2018, 07:24:27 PM
About the narrative (not the score), you nailed it. I also wasn't aware of some things. Like how enigmatically high and low the UW defense is. Is TOP really the best explanation for that? Wow. And the the YPP stats. Michigan and MSU are #1 and #2 and the margin is 1.4YPP? I wouldn't have expected a margin like that. Wow again. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 12, 2018, 08:06:51 PM
Hahaha, never go full Paterno. The poor guy:


(https://mgoblog.com/sites/default/files/users/user201910/Screen%20shot%202018-10-12%20at%201.07.47%20PM.png)


(https://mgoblog.com/sites/default/files/users/user201910/Screen%20shot%202018-10-12%20at%201.08.04%20PM.png)
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 12, 2018, 08:16:59 PM
I mean anyone can say Michigan Stadium can vacillate away from roaring to ... a special kind of eerie quiet -- depending on the opponent and start time.
Wine and cheese crowd? For sure.
But the town itself? This place? (https://medicine.umich.edu/medschool/sites/medicine.umich.edu.medschool/files/styles/paragraph_float_image/public/images/ann_arbor_by_the_numbers_graphic.jpg?itok=MwLs1teu) I may have never met an outsider (disconnected from sports or from any school) who didn't think Ann Arbor is bold, underlined, italicized, supersized-in-helvetica DE-LIGHTFUL. I'm not sure there are streets in america with happier strangers on ordinary days. Maybe. But, those places, I haven't been there. Which isn't to say Ann Arbor runs away with the awards. Just that it's tied up there with several standouts.
Then again, I haven't been to Hawaii or Alaska yet, so I could still find a better college town later. Fairbanks sounds cool.
#nevergofullpaterno
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 12, 2018, 10:17:02 PM
Hmmm, except my response sucked - pettily positive (arrogant) whereas his was pettily negative (dismissive). Classic Michigan stereotype. Guh.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 12, 2018, 11:26:54 PM
I'd say this one is pretty even:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fZPzg5MYwE&feature=youtu.be
.
That game-sealing superman INT by Lewis at 1:05 still causes the same excitement in me.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 13, 2018, 12:04:03 AM
Preview from the Michigan side (https://mgoblog.com/content/preview-wisconsin-2018)

"poor damn Jonathan Taylor's google image search" really got me
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 13, 2018, 12:36:20 AM
Badger fans probably know, but Jason Gay is a UW grad with a gig at WSJ. His joke columns before this game in recent years have been enjoyable:

LINK (https://www.wsj.com/articles/wisconsin-must-beat-michigan-to-save-the-world-1539355698?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=2)
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: MarqHusker on October 13, 2018, 12:46:04 AM
I read WSJ daily.  I've had enough of his shtick.  Mostly because he's such an NFL honk.   He really does loath Michigan.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 13, 2018, 01:02:21 AM
lots of rumors that Tarik Black might be a go for Wisconsin. Black posted something vague and cryptic on his twitter and the rumors are out of control. Please be true.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 13, 2018, 01:48:03 AM
lots of rumors that Tarik Black might be a go for Wisconsin. Black posted something vague and cryptic on his twitter and the rumors are out of control. Please be true.
I'm reading the same. It's on twitter, on the radio, and - super weird - may have broken first by the commentators in the USF-Tulsa game.
Mostly I'm confused. (1) That's a lot of smoke but I don't know if it's real. (2) If real, how unlike Harbaugh to have let it out before gametime! (3) Just like with Solomon practicing last week, I am incredulous at how accelerated this recovery has been. Actually with Black it seems even harder to believe since there's relatively little benefit to bringing him back too early (the WRs have more than enough depth for the offense to function "normally").
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on October 13, 2018, 02:18:40 AM
I'm reading the same. It's on twitter, on the radio, and - super weird - may have broken first by the commentators in the USF-Tulsa game.
Mostly I'm confused. (1) That's a lot of smoke but I don't know if it's real. (2) If real, how unlike Harbaugh to have let it out before gametime! (3) Just like with Solomon practicing last week, I am incredulous at how accelerated this recovery has been. Actually with Black it seems even harder to believe since there's relatively little benefit to bringing him back too early (the WRs have more than enough depth for the offense to function "normally").
my guess if Black is back, he'll have a pitch count.
And the sooner he gets back to full form, the scarier it makes this offense. DPJ and Nico have both been playing really well. A bit inconsistent, but pretty damn well for a pair of true sophomore WR's playing with a new QB. And let's not forget that QB just got here in like March and has had to learn a new system that was drastically different to what he played in HS and at Ole Miss. Adding Black to that WR mix to go along with Gentry at TE? In my best Bart Scott voice, CAN'T WAIT.
Chris Evans should be back as well. And my HOPE of all HOPES is that they feature him in the passing game. As a runner he's pretty hit or miss, not really crazy about him there, but Evans is a real weapon in the pass game. Complete mismatch for any LB or S. Big doses of Evans in the pass game and on screens could take this offense to another level. He is that good of a receiver and that deadly in open space.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-0, 4-1) at #12 Michigan (3-0, 5-1) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 13, 2018, 06:36:06 PM
We're on the verge of a maxed out FB/HB/TEs in a phonebooth battle, so this is apropos:
(https://mgoblog.com/sites/default/files/users/user96084/murderface%5B1%5D.JPG)
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 13, 2018, 11:59:37 PM
Given the Badger attrition in the secondary, I really expected Michigan to attack them there. But that wasn't it. No doubt Michigan tried to go through the air more than they produced (and, I don't know who those back-ups were back there but for a long time they were a reliable blanket of Michigan's WRs). But ultimately it was on the ground where they made their hay. I know this isn't a vintage UW unit, but this wasn't my expectation. I think UW really missed Loudermilk in this one. Especially on those QB keepers (though I wasn't paying close enough attention to know whether they went to the side he'd have been assigned.

https://twitter.com/MattRHinton/status/1051305552591118341

But again, I think that's misleading because of injuries and this being a relative off-year. Still, am glad for our OL and Warriner. We're not there yet, but those guys are (sometimes slowly) on their way.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 14, 2018, 12:01:29 AM
Also, after wasting that glorious meme above, Ben(ch) Mason barely featured. Michigan really advanced the QB read-option in this one. I'm always curious how much of that (extensively flashing new offensive themes/looks all of a sudden) is specifically about the opponent at hand, how much is about giving future opponents more to prepare for, and to which extent the answer can be both.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: SuperMario on October 14, 2018, 12:24:26 AM
Really didn’t expect that outcome at all. Wisconsin has quite a few curious calls in this game. I’m not sure why they continued to try to pass during important downs. A couple notable times it blew up in their face when they seem to run to the left side at will. Odd. Would have been frustrating to be a Badger fan tonight.

Patterson still confuses me, which I know I’m the minority here. He made some great plays with his legs. Also made some great throws. BUT.. something is up with him throwing down field when a receiver isn’t wide open. He is either incredibly reluctant to throw a pick or he doesn’t see the field well. I really think it’s the forward because his judgment and seeing the defense on option reads tonight was fantastic. I’d be ok with him taking a few more chances. Kid definitely has a great arm.

Ok. Finally, a big Harbaugh win. Now do it again.

Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 14, 2018, 12:49:14 AM
Really didn’t expect that outcome at all. Wisconsin has quite a few curious calls in this game. I’m not sure why they continued to try to pass during important downs. A couple notable times it blew up in their face when they seem to run to the left side at will. Odd. Would have been frustrating to be a Badger fan tonight.

Patterson still confuses me, which I know I’m the minority here. He made some great plays with his legs. Also made some great throws. BUT.. something is up with him throwing down field when a receiver isn’t wide open. He is either incredibly reluctant to throw a pick or he doesn’t see the field well. I really think it’s the forward because his judgment and seeing the defense on option reads tonight was fantastic. I’d be ok with him taking a few more chances. Kid definitely has a great arm.

Ok. Finally, a big Harbaugh win. Now do it again.


Agree on the score being unexpected. As for your two questions. I think I can explain both of those (or at least I noticed both during the game and can share my best guess from then):
About Patterson, 
As for UW and why it stopped running in the 2nd half: Michigan's pass D ruined their aerial game. Until that final drive, Hornibrook had only passed for ~25 yards. Which allowed the Michigan defense to load the box and crash on every play, whether run or not. And I'll admit, UW still successfully ran on a lot of those. Their OL is incredible. However, once Michigan started crashing like that, the results became high variance. About 50/50 between 5-7 yard gains and 2-4 yard gains. So running had two issues: (1) if you can't break a big one, it's almost impossible to go the whole length of the field like that versus this defense. Because eventually, it's likely that you'll get two of those 2-4 yard gains out of three plays and force a punt. So they needed to somehow beg Michigan to unload the box. (2) Running more often would only have dripped the clock away faster.
(Of course at that point, it barely mattered and trying to pass didn't work. But I think it's best to evaluate the decision not on whether it worked but on whether it made good sense. And I think this did.)
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 14, 2018, 02:00:52 AM
If I had to identify a few of the coaching decisions I thought were questionable, I guess chronologically:

(1) Choosing to receive the ball to start the game (the most benign of these 4, but getting the ball second only helps a defense known for ramping it up to a new level in the 2nd half)
(2) Not calling timeout at the end of the half (Michigan missed this FG, but if Chryst had called TO around 30s, the Harbaugh may not have elected to kick from there (missing, as Michigan did, would have guaranteed UW the ball and time to get into FG range).
(3) Though I think it made sense for UW to lean into the pass game, there were many 4th and short downs on Michigan's half of the field where they punted. You have that OL and JTaylor. Use them, right?
(4) Chryst punted in the 4th when the score was 24-7, which was a kind of forfeit. But then after Lavert's pick-six, he decided to go for a score and even kicked onsides after that TD drive. The second parts are good and competitive. So why was UW punting at 24-7 in the 4th?
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2018, 08:16:30 AM
That was an ugly 2nd half for any UW fan to watch, starting with roughing the snapper. I've seen that called against UW twice now.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 14, 2018, 08:18:14 AM
What I feel is happening at Michigan is a based on the offense, not the Defense.

How many years/ times have we read all of your glowing reports about their defense being number on, all The shiny statistics ( you see what I did there Dudekd), only to have it not work down the stretch, and in the biggest games.

The difference now is, there is an offense that;
- doesn’t put them in bad positions
- keeps the ball for defense to rest, 
- puts points on the board so Brown can play with house money and get super aggressive.

And it is not because the offense is explosive, which it is AT TIMES.
It is because it has balance. Having the read option threat is HUGE.  Kudos to Harbaugh for letting his other coaches have some say in the offense.

I truly think this could be a CFP caliber team, if they get and stay healthy and continue to expand Patterson’s spread playbook.

What’s missing?

Solid RBs.  Check
Great defense.  check
Ability to pass.   Check
QB who doesn’t throw picks. Check
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 14, 2018, 08:27:14 AM
That was an ugly 2nd half for any UW fan to watch, starting with roughing the snapper. I've seen that called against UW twice now.
Not to say the outcome would change, but that was at a most critical time in the game, where they had forced Michigan into a punt on their first possession of the second half. Like the announcers, I think it was quite embellished by Cheeseman, evidenced by the sideline celebration afterward.  I suspect a good piece of coaching on UMs part.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2018, 08:51:01 AM
Yeah, it was critical, but UM would have worn down that defense no matter what. UW, and more importantly, Hornibrook, had to play a perfect game to have a chance. Instead he turned in probably his worst showing as a Badger. Ballgame.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 14, 2018, 09:20:59 AM
That was an ugly 2nd half for any UW fan to watch, starting with roughing the snapper. I've seen that called against UW twice now.
Agreed. That one penalty changed so much, effectively giving Michigan a two-score lead to start, and then that was that.
There were precious few penalties last night for both teams. Weird that one was such a rare one.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: SuperMario on October 14, 2018, 09:34:56 AM
Agree on the score being unexpected. As for your two questions. I think I can explain both of those (or at least I noticed both during the game and can share my best guess from then):
About Patterson,
  • if you're talking about why he had such happy feet (looked physically unsettled early), giving up on his routes in the 1st quarter: Only from recollection, I think those were all quick routes and exceptionally well covered. So quitting on them was the right idea and would explain why he pulled the ball and seemed reluctant to throw. (A good follow-up question is *why* these athletic WRs and TEs were so well covered versus a deeply injured UW secondary)
I was actually talking about the opposite. He seems to be decisive on quick routes. He seems unwilling to throw down field unless the receive is blatantly wide open. He got himself in trouble a couple times and took a sack once from recollection. If a receiver is wide open, he fires a bullet their way. If there’s any defense near, he pumps and pumps and always turns to his feet.
It may be lack of live game experience where he’s not comfortable with timing on long throws and he doesn’t want to make the big mistake. If that’s the case, I’m good, but it’s definitely noticeable that there’s a resistance to throw deep(er)
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 14, 2018, 09:42:27 AM
What I feel is happening at Michigan is a based on the offense, not the Defense.

How many years/ times have we read all of your glowing reports about their defense being number on, all The shiny statistics ( you see what I did there Dudekd), only to have it not work down the stretch, and in the biggest games.

The difference now is, there is an offense that;
- doesn’t put them in bad positions
- keeps the ball for defense to rest,
- puts points on the board so Brown can play with house money and get super aggressive.

And it is not because the offense is explosive, which it is AT TIMES.
It is because it has balance. Having the read option threat is HUGE.  Kudos to Harbaugh for letting his other coaches have some say in the offense.

I truly think this could be a CFP caliber team, if they get and stay healthy and continue to expand Patterson’s spread playbook.

What’s missing?

Solid RBs.  Check
Great defense.  check
Ability to pass.   Check
QB who doesn’t throw picks. Check
I do like how the team is coming together. But this is getting ahead of itself. Michigan still needs to prove it can win against a good team on the road.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: SuperMario on October 14, 2018, 10:00:38 AM
That was an ugly 2nd half for any UW fan to watch, starting with roughing the snapper. I've seen that called against UW twice now.
What game was the other call? My brother didn’t know it was a thing and I was trying to explain that I saw it in another Wisconsin game earlier this year.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: FearlessF on October 14, 2018, 10:41:43 AM
I understand protecting players from needless injuries, but I think we've gone too far.

It's football, with helmets and pads

we have had a penalty called unnecessary roughness for a few decades.  If someone is being too rough with the long snapper, that can be called.  Touching the snapper shouldn't be a penalty
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: SuperMario on October 14, 2018, 10:49:32 AM
I understand protecting players from needless injuries, but I think we've gone too far.

It's football, with helmets and pads

we have had a penalty called unnecessary roughness for a few decades.  If someone is being too rough with the long snapper, that can be called.  Touching the snapper shouldn't be a penalty
Agreed. I saw two penalties yesterday that I thought were awful. The penalty we’re referencing and the targeting call against the Gophers. Two helmets making contact should not be targeting. Touching a long snapper should not be a personal foul. There’s safety and there’s pushing us to flag football.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 14, 2018, 11:11:51 AM
I understand protecting players from needless injuries, but I think we've gone too far.

It's football, with helmets and pads

we have had a penalty called unnecessary roughness for a few decades.  If someone is being too rough with the long snapper, that can be called.  Touching the snapper shouldn't be a penalty
I think that since they are specialized, typically scrawny players, just like a punter, that the rule is meant to treat them just like a punter. Would you recommend doing away with "running into" and "roughing" the punter as penalties, too? And instead turn it into an unnecessary roughness judgment call? Maybe that'd be better, but I'm not convinced.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 14, 2018, 11:14:02 AM
(...) and the targeting call against the Gophers. Two helmets making contact should not be targeting. Touching a long snapper should not be a personal foul. There’s safety and there’s pushing us to flag football.
Yeah, HB and I talked about that one live. I think we decided that either you have to outlaw QBs sliding feet first (not a realistic rule change) or you have to modify the targeting rules so that if a QB chooses to slide feet first, targeting is off the table once his head falls below the height of his standing waist.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: bayareabadger on October 14, 2018, 11:24:33 AM
I think that since they are specialized, typically scrawny players, just like a punter, that the rule is meant to treat them just like a punter. Would you recommend doing away with "running into" and "roughing" the punter as penalties, too? And instead turn it into an unnecessary roughness judgment call? Maybe that'd be better, but I'm not convinced.
I think it's about position. To long snap, you're looking between your legs, head down. If someone jumps on you, they'll basically bend you in half or launch right through you. 
I get why it's a call and it probably should be. (I mostly don't mind the punter rules either TBH)
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: bayareabadger on October 14, 2018, 11:39:40 AM
I went back and watched the condensed version of the game. Hornibrook was off, the receivers didn't help ton and eventually Michigan just wore UW down. 

I looked at one inflection point where it got out of hand, a spot where a few mistakes cascaded, mainly on the drive that made it 21-7
-Defensive hold on a long third-down throw
-A Michigan fumble JUST slipping out of bounds
-Hitting the stupid snapper
-Getting hands on a maybe pick but not getting it
Then after the TD
-Taylor drops a first-down pass
-Davis doesn't run out a route as he looks for a holding call and can't convert a third down

That all comes in back-to-back drives of a tight game. If UW's defense is last year's unit, that can come out in the wash. Against a better team on the road when the tackling/discipline are hit and miss, it turns a maybe competitive game into a blowout. 

Bonus play was Hornibrook putting a third down pass too far out in front of Davis on third down, then punting from the 43 down 14 with less than 18 minutes left. Didn't help that a second-team All-American lineman got walked into the QB's lap by a fifth-year reserve tackle.


(Also, the first UW pick looked like a play of aggression. Yes it was tipped, but the receiver just didn't look open enough, at least for a pass that took a minute to get to)
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2018, 11:46:25 AM
What game was the other call? My brother didn’t know it was a thing and I was trying to explain that I saw it in another Wisconsin game earlier this year.
Two years ago, in Ann Arbor. I don't recall one against UW earlier this season.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2018, 11:55:55 AM
Also, this has to be said too. Paul Chryst and Joe Rudolph had a really bad day with play calls and decisions. The running game was working and they got away from it too soon in my opinion. Of course, there were times when the game called for passing plays (after it went to 21-7) but before that? Taylor only had 17 carries and Deal had only 1. That's not Wisconsin football.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 14, 2018, 12:03:20 PM
That all comes in back-to-back drives of a tight game. If UW's defense is last year's unit, that can come out in the wash. Against a better team on the road when the tackling/discipline are hit and miss, it turns a maybe competitive game into a blowout.
Yeah, and it needs to be said. This one wasn't an inevitable blowout. It felt in doubt (but with odds for a 4 to 10-point M win) until those two drives.
Bonus play was Hornibrook putting a third down pass too far out in front of Davis on third down, then punting from the 43 down 14 with less than 18 minutes left. Didn't help that a second-team All-American lineman got walked into the QB's lap by a fifth-year reserve tackle.

I neither understood passing in that situation, nor punting. Was very happy about the pass rush against the UW OL despite Gary being out. Not sure which OL and DL you're referencing here, though. Maybe I'll see if there's a torrent up that the copyright vultures haven't chased down yet.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 14, 2018, 12:04:24 PM
Also, this has to be said too. Paul Chryst and Joe Rudolph had a really bad day with play calls and decisions. The running game was working and they got away from it too soon in my opinion. Of course, there were times when the game called for passing plays (after it went to 21-7) but before that? Taylor only had 17 carries and Deal had only 1. That's not Wisconsin football.
That's exactly right.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: MrNubbz on October 14, 2018, 12:32:19 PM
 Two helmets making contact should not be targeting. Touching a long snapper should not be a personal foul. There’s safety and there’s pushing us to flag football.
Seems a lot of normal contact that's unavoidable is being flagged with absolutely no malicious intent
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 14, 2018, 12:36:57 PM
Really glad about the environment last night, too. Excited to be at the PSU game in 3 weeks. Another night game? Michigan has never hosted two in a season, but I'm hunching that ends now.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: MrNubbz on October 14, 2018, 12:38:00 PM

I think it's about position. To long snap, you're looking between your legs, head down. If someone jumps on you, they'll basically bend you in half or launch right through you.

I get why it's a call and it probably should be. (I mostly don't mind the punter rules either TBH)
Well in a sense the snapper is defenseless sort of blindsiding from a different angle
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: bayareabadger on October 14, 2018, 12:38:11 PM
I neither understood passing in that situation, nor punting. Was very happy about the pass rush against the UW OL despite Gary being out. Not sure which OL and DL you're referencing here, though. Maybe I'll see if there's a torrent up that the copyright vultures haven't chased down yet.
20:43 here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=utzNMnFe6-w&t=1251s
It's Lawrence Marshall (I think), pushing Michael Dieter back. Not that it made or didn't make the play, as the QB should've made it, but perhaps it contributes. Two runs there would've been nice, but PC can be conservative in terms of not running with 3 or 4 to go, and he's had a few pass on third down, punt too close moments this year. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: bayareabadger on October 14, 2018, 12:58:07 PM
Also, this has to be said too. Paul Chryst and Joe Rudolph had a really bad day with play calls and decisions. The running game was working and they got away from it too soon in my opinion. Of course, there were times when the game called for passing plays (after it went to 21-7) but before that? Taylor only had 17 carries and Deal had only 1. That's not Wisconsin football.
This is interesting. Pass/run stuff is usually a combination of style/situation. UW tends to be hype-run heavy on running downs, pass heavy on passing downs. So here's the down/distance for every pass before 21-7.
3rd and 5
1st and 10 (A nice play-action rollout for 12 yards)
2nd and 9
1st and 10 (Play action that gets open but Alex has to move and misses, helps end drive)
3rd and 3 (Set up by a mishandled 2nd and 1 snap)
1st and 10 with 4 minutes left (Big play action where Alex seems to want too much)
2nd and 7 (With 2:30 left in the half)
3rd and 12
At halftime, USC has 17 rushes to seven passes, though it was really more like 15 to 8 with that messed up snap.
So looking at those eight passes, you have three pure passing situations, two in a sort of gray area (2nd and 7 after a run with 2:30 left and the third and 3 where PC can be dicy on running) and three 1st down, pass off the run situations. 

All of it was sort of logical, with some room for debate on the last three. One issue is UW only getting 24 first-half plays and then being down 14 the rest of the way. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 14, 2018, 01:01:12 PM
20:43 here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=utzNMnFe6-w&t=1251s
It's Lawrence Marshall (I think), pushing Michael Dieter back. 
Wow. Marshall is much improved this year, but I never expect plays like that against even mediocre competition. That's close to the snap of his year. He's the bottom lineman in the rotation. Like you said, hard to tell the effect it had. I have noticed, though, that Hornibrook gets nervous when things close in. That's the only kind of effect it could have had here - psychological.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: bayareabadger on October 14, 2018, 01:32:39 PM
Wow. Marshall is much improved this year, but I never expect plays like that against even mediocre competition. That's close to the snap of his year. He's the bottom lineman in the rotation. Like you said, hard to tell the effect it had. I have noticed, though, that Hornibrook gets nervous when things close in. That's the only kind of effect it could have had here - psychological.
It looks to me like Hornibrook has to lean a hint with those two in his space. If they get a better angle, perhaps we'll know for sure. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 14, 2018, 04:44:17 PM
On Hornibrook, from Bill Connelly: (https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/10/13/17974168/michigan-wisconsin-results-2018-final-score)

"For most of the last two seasons, he has been one of the country’s more underrated passers. He finished 2017 with a 148.6 passer rating, top-25 in FBS. He struggled earlier this year in the upset loss to BYU, but his passer rating heading into Saturday was still 151.7.
Hornibrook’s passer rating on Saturday night in Ann Arbor during a 38-13 Michigan win: 73.5. Before a garbage-time touchdown drive, it was 9.2.
Nine point two! In Michigan backup quarterback Dylan McCaffrey (http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/players/291354/dylan-mccaffrey)’s first snap of the evening, he gained 44 yards on a touchdown run. Third-stringer Joe Milton ripped off a 23-yarder late. But in his first 15 pass and rush attempts of the evening, Hornibrook netted 12 yards. "
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 14, 2018, 06:12:03 PM
I was a little surprised we didn't see another QB for UW last night. Why not get someone else a few snaps in a meaningless 4th quarter? After the pick 6 even. It was over before then.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 14, 2018, 06:16:48 PM
I was a little surprised we didn't see another QB for UW last night. Why not get someone else a few snaps in a meaningless 4th quarter? After the pick 6 even. It was over before then.
It's weird. When Chryst started punting around the end of the 3rd Q (can't remember whether it was just before or after), I really thought that was white flag waving. But when he came back later on that garbage time drive and then finished with an onsides kick, it was clear he never gave up. He just thought punting was the right choice. I disagree with him there, but this makes the punts more palatable. And probably explains why he never put in another QB. Because that'd have been a quitting move.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Temp430 on October 15, 2018, 04:17:23 AM
Wisconsin’s OL and RB are very NFL good.  I thought they might take over early in the game. Michigan DE Winovich thought he was being held and complained frequently and emphatically to the ref but it was never called.  

Wisconsin had a lot of dropped balls so if your gonna crucify Hornibrook you should probably give him some company.  

Michigan chewing clock late in the 3rd and on reminded me of Badger ball.  Playing “Jump Around” on the stadium noise machine late in the 4th was hilarious.

Wisconsin is still in driver’s seat in West.  Best chance for Badgers to pick up another loss are road games at PSU and NW who always seem to give the Badgers a hard time.  Iowa has those two plus Maryland.  



Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 15, 2018, 08:38:50 AM
The whole team (except Taylor) was bad Saturday. Hornibrook is getting torched on boards and social media, but his coaches, receivers and tight ends did him no favors.



Just read an article about the secondary. 5 of the 8 players UW broke camp with did not play Saturday, including all 4 starters.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: MrNubbz on October 15, 2018, 08:45:45 AM
Dixon didn't play?
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 15, 2018, 08:55:17 AM
No, he tried to give it a go in warmups and couldn't do it. He injured his foot late in the UNL game.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: bayareabadger on October 15, 2018, 09:00:38 AM
No, he tried to give it a go in warmups and couldn't do it. He injured his foot late in the UNL game.
Man, good thing Carriere-Williams quit. He just wasn’t gonna get any PT.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 15, 2018, 09:03:38 AM
He crossed my mind last week. I then noticed he's not doing much at his current JuCo stop either.



I also see that CB Hicks and FS Nelson got injured during the game Saturday. Maybe there will be some open tryouts this week.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: ELA on October 15, 2018, 09:11:54 AM
Man, good thing Carriere-Williams quit. He just wasn’t gonna get any PT.

It's the funny thing about this boom in transfers as though guys always stay healthy.  MSU had 2 WRs transfer (although there had to be more to Rison, because he was likely in the starting group) claiming PT, as MSU was stuck playing most of the game Saturday with one healthy scholarship WR.  How often do these PT hunting transfers actually work out?
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Mdot21 on October 15, 2018, 10:37:51 AM
Taylor was outstanding. If Michigan had him I’d predict they’d win the National title. I really think that kid is that good. Best Wisconsin RB that I’ve seen and that is saying a lot bc they’ve had some pretty good ones. He’s got size, power, speed, vision, acceleration, and he always gets an extra 1-3 yards after contact. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Mdot21 on October 15, 2018, 10:44:07 AM
Oh ya and by the way Michigan can go ahead and give Don Brown, Greg Mattison, and Ed Warriner lifetime contracts and make them the highest paid DC, DL, and OL coaches ASAP. 

Those 3 guys have been the key to this turnaround after that embarrassing ND start.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: ELA on October 15, 2018, 11:21:48 AM
Oh ya and by the way Michigan can go ahead and give Don Brown, Greg Mattison, and Ed Warriner lifetime contracts and make them the highest paid DC, DL, and OL coaches ASAP.

Those 3 guys have been the key to this turnaround after that embarrassing ND start.
Brown is 63, he's probably at Michigan until he retires, I can't imagine him getting another HC offer worth taking at his age.
Mattison is 68, he's certainly at Michigan until he retires.
Warriner is only 56, I would think his tenure depends on getting another OC shot or not.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2018, 11:54:49 AM
I think that since they are specialized, typically scrawny players, just like a punter, that the rule is meant to treat them just like a punter. Would you recommend doing away with "running into" and "roughing" the punter as penalties, too? And instead turn it into an unnecessary roughness judgment call? Maybe that'd be better, but I'm not convinced.
well, running into the kicker shouldn't b a penalty.  If someone hits the kicker hard enough to injure him, it should be 15 yards and automatic.  If the kicker simply gets run into or bumped w/o much risk of injury, why the penalty????
roughing the kicker or unnecessary roughness is always a judgement call.  Why have a separate penalty for the kickers?
As for long snappers.... it's not the defender's problem he's a scrawny bitch that can't protect himself.  If he can't snap the ball accurately w/o looking between his legs and protecting himself, maybe he should bulk up in the weight room or go back to soccer or a non-contact sport.
now, intentionally trying to injury the long snapper by jumping on top of him or by other means
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: MarqHusker on October 15, 2018, 12:18:11 PM
I was a long snapper,  every time the huddle broke, the Umpire would say quite loudly,  'nobody mess with the snapper'.  It was gospel (this was early 90s).   Only once did I get mildly rammed by a guy trying to rush a gap on a kick and the flag was thrown.

On the play on Saturday in Ann Arbor, while it wasn't a cheap shot per se, it is not typical to see a snapper pushed backwards towards the punter like that.   though Cheeseman allowed himself to get taken up in the current IMO.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2018, 12:31:55 PM
if the umpire is letting everyone know..... then ya better keep your grubby paws off
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2018, 12:32:55 PM
then there should also not be any fake punts with the snap to the upback going straight ahead behind the center for a yard ro two
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 15, 2018, 12:50:32 PM
The snapper engaged in the block and got beat. Then he did a little dance on the sideline with is buddies after the BS call gave Michigan another chance. Michigan must coach this?? It's only happened to UW twice, and both have been in Ann Arbor (2016 was the other one).
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2018, 01:53:40 PM
well, the Michigan coaches could certainly ask the officials to be on the lookout
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: ELA on October 15, 2018, 02:30:07 PM
The snapper engaged in the block and got beat. Then he did a little dance on the sideline with is buddies after the BS call gave Michigan another chance. Michigan must coach this?? It's only happened to UW twice, and both have been in Ann Arbor (2016 was the other one).
Can't imagine how enraging it must be to watch an opposing player celebrate a flop.  >:(
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Mdot21 on October 15, 2018, 03:40:25 PM
Can't imagine how enraging it must be to watch an opposing player celebrate a flop.  >:(
That’s all the NBA is anymore. 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: MrNubbz on October 15, 2018, 04:17:31 PM
The snapper engaged in the block and got beat. Then he did a little dance on the sideline with is buddies after the BS call gave Michigan another chance. Michigan must coach this?? It's only happened to UW twice, and both have been in Ann Arbor (2016 was the other one).
Do you have video,I didn't see it and it has piqued my curiosity 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2018, 04:35:08 PM
because you kinda like Michigan, or you'd like to forward it to Urban's cell phone so he doesn't fall into the same trap?
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: ELA on October 15, 2018, 04:37:40 PM
That’s all the NBA is anymore.
I was speaking to a specific Wisconsin punter
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: MrNubbz on October 15, 2018, 04:45:54 PM
because you kinda like Michigan, or you'd like to forward it to Urban's cell phone so he doesn't fall into the same trap?
Well if your talking to me I nodded off after M's 1st score.Don't feel like sorting thru 3 hrs of game film for 1 play.As far as the other two not that big of a fan of either
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 15, 2018, 09:40:02 PM
I was a long snapper,  every time the huddle broke, the Umpire would say quite loudly,  'nobody mess with the snapper'.  It was gospel (this was early 90s).   Only once did I get mildly rammed by a guy trying to rush a gap on a kick and the flag was thrown.

On the play on Saturday in Ann Arbor, while it wasn't a cheap shot per se, it is not typical to see a snapper pushed backwards towards the punter like that.   though Cheeseman allowed himself to get taken up in the current IMO.
That's how I saw it. A rare call, but probably correct by a smidge (a judgment call leaning this way).
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 15, 2018, 09:47:09 PM
Brown is 63, he's probably at Michigan until he retires, I can't imagine him getting another HC offer worth taking at his age.
Mattison is 68, he's certainly at Michigan until he retires.
Warriner is only 56, I would think his tenure depends on getting another OC shot or not.
Yeah, Brown and Mattison have the same odds of leaving before retirement as Harbaugh leaving for the NFL in the next three years (it's not high). I think it's almost the same of Warriner. My proofless hunch is that he has gotten the OC itch out of his system.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: bayareabadger on October 15, 2018, 11:00:15 PM
Well if your talking to me I nodded off after M's 1st score.Don't feel like sorting thru 3 hrs of game film for 1 play.As far as the other two not that big of a fan of either
They say the millennials are all lazy, and yet I have to go find these things for people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYixbVWp1wU
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2018, 11:11:51 PM
nice work

and a good call
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 16, 2018, 12:19:39 AM
Yeah the more I watch it, the more I take it back. It's not borderline. He's going backwards before his head comes up enough to even be looking forward. Just like with a girl, engagement is intentional. And you can't pick what you can't see.
Whether I'm right or not, the salt in the wound on that penalty HAS to be that his name is Cheeseman.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 16, 2018, 08:19:39 PM
Yeah the more I watch it, the more I take it back. It's not borderline. He's going backwards before his head comes up enough to even be looking forward. Just like with a girl, engagement is intentional. And you can't pick what you can't see.
Whether I'm right or not, the salt in the wound on that penalty HAS to be that his name is Cheeseman.

That's his fault. The first thing you do as a snapper is raise your head. Snapping 101.
I think the move is coached, and it worked.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 16, 2018, 09:21:13 PM
That's his fault. The first thing you do as a snapper is raise your head. Snapping 101.
I think the move is coached, and it worked.
Long snappers are allowed to look between their legs. And they are not allowed to be touched unless they engage first. 
So doing it like that is smart. The call was right. And the UW guy lined up over him made a mistake he probably knew was wrong starting in high school, if not earlier.
But I don't think you're arguing that. I think maybe you're saying "What a wimp that Cheeseman does it like that anyway..."
Whereas I'm thinking "Great idea; great results; do it that way forever; what could possibly be the downside for Michigan?"
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: FearlessF on October 16, 2018, 09:50:31 PM
Whereas I'm thinking "Great idea; great results; do it that way forever; what could possibly be the downside for Michigan?"
and of course the coaches alert the officials to watch for it
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 17, 2018, 06:52:22 AM
It's a puss move. That's the only downfall for Michigan.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: MrNubbz on October 17, 2018, 07:17:54 AM
That's his fault. The first thing you do as a snapper is raise your head. Snapping 101.
I think the move is coached, and it worked.
This^^^ look how far he backed - bad call.Look at the players on the M sideline smiling like they pulled a coup 
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 17, 2018, 09:25:17 AM
This^^^ look how far he backed - bad call.Look at the players on the M sideline smiling like they pulled a coup
Why not celebrate? He did his job, drew a correct call, and it extended a drive to go up by 2 scores. I was equally happy about as they were.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 17, 2018, 09:30:43 AM
It's a puss move. That's the only downfall for Michigan.
I wouldn't call that a downside, just like I don't see a downside for football teams adopting the forward pass, having their QBs slide feet first or having their star players run out of bounds after the 1st down marker but before contact. 
You just don't like it - that it was the right call or that teams would ever strategize to get their opponent to make that mistake. But you not liking it doesn't mean there're actually consequences for teams that do this. Zero-point-zero of Michigan's problems are that they have a soft culture.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: FearlessF on October 18, 2018, 02:26:56 PM
many different examples of players trying to draw penalties on the opponent

some could be cornsidered puss moves, but all could be cornsidered to take advantage of stupid mistakes by the opponent

not that all the particular opponents are stupid
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 18, 2018, 02:32:03 PM
For sure. I was just caring to distinguish this as separate from a flop. Both draw the call. But this one involved the player doing his job the whole time. Flops involve a player ceasing to play in order to go on stage to act.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: MrNubbz on October 18, 2018, 02:48:27 PM
Why not celebrate? He did his job, drew a correct call, and it extended a drive to go up by 2 scores. I was equally happy about as they were.
It's a bad call/rule I don't blame them for grinning the call wasn't right or had an adverse effect on the play was 847's point
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 18, 2018, 03:16:05 PM
It'd be more productive to discuss whether the rule should be this way. But, since it is, (1) the ref's call was exactly by the letter of the law and (2) the long snapper did everything right, up to and including just playing, not flopping.
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: FearlessF on October 18, 2018, 04:29:03 PM
I don't like the rule.  It's a puss rule

but, if yer gonna have a puss rule on the book, it certainly may get called if the opponent isn't aware and smart enough to avoid the penalty
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 18, 2018, 04:40:59 PM
Exploiting rules... yeah.



Does Michigan get this BS call a lot, or is only against Wisconsin, in Ann Arbor?
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: FearlessF on October 18, 2018, 04:48:03 PM
watch the upcoming Sparty game to see
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: MrNubbz on October 18, 2018, 04:50:33 PM
They'll be watching the Punter not the snapper
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: FearlessF on October 18, 2018, 05:00:13 PM
not if Harbaugh tells them to keep one eye on the pussy snapper
Title: Re: #15 Wisconsin (2-1, 4-2) at #12 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) Post Game
Post by: MrNubbz on October 18, 2018, 05:06:11 PM
You're gonna get called for encrotchment