Yeah, I'm not buying a Michigan blowout. 1990 was the last time that happened in Madison. This isn't pre-Alvarez Wisconsin. In the 17 games of the Alvarez Era, there have been four games in this series decided by more than two scores (if you cut that margin at 14 points, rather than 16, it goes up to 5, adding a Wisconsin win). During that same time, the away team has won by a touchdown or more three times (Wisconsin by 20 in 2010 and by 12 in 1994; Michigan by ten in 1997). Of the eleven games decided by a touchdown or more, Michigan has the lead, 6-5, but again, only once on the road.
Wisconsin is 5-3 at home during that stretch, with wins by 3 ('93), 3 ('05), 16 ('07), 21 ('09), and 14 ('17). I don't put much stock in games between Alvarez and Moeller/Carr, and Bielema and Carr/Rodriguez, but I'll be surprised if Chryst's team isn't up to the competition.
Last year, Michigan ran away with it by doing just that...running away. Wisconsin's undermanned defense wasn't able to account for Patterson in the Michigan attack, and the Wolverines gained 320 yards on the ground. Patterson's passing game was pedestrian (124 yards, no TD/INT), but Michigan didn't need anymore than that.
I'll be stunned if Michigan is able to replicate that on Saturday. And until Patterson proves that he's a capable passer, two weeks off from Army doesn't seem like enough to fix that part of his game. Michigan has yet to rely on him to win a big game for it.
The same can be said about Coan and Wisconsin. Taylor has had success running against Michigan, but last year there was no passing game to compliment the run.
Which brings me back to a typical game in this series, in a grinding defensive struggle, at home, Wisconsin wins the turnover margin and the game, 20-13.
