| As expected, one of these offenses rolls into this game with the Big Ten's highest completion percentage (76.9%), 3rd in passing ypa (9.2) and passing ypg (299.5); while the others passing offense limps in at 11th in completion percentage (60.9%) and ypa (7.1) and #12 in ypg (226.0). Granted I think we assumed it would be flipped, but Jack Coan has looked outstanding through two games. Yes, it's South Florida and Central Michigan, but in terms of defense, they really basically on par with Middle Tennessee and Army a year ago in terms of S&P+, with the 2019 numbers not available yet. In terms of bye weeks, early ones are generally not preferred, but for Michigan this year, this is probably the rare time where the early bye is welcomed. This looks like an offense that needed the extra week both to get healthy (Patterson and Peoples-Jones) and hammer out the issues from Week 1 and Week 2. It all starts with the offensive line and Patterson. Preseason we thought Michigan had the best quarterback in the conference, and if not the best offensive line, then 1-b to Wisconsin's 1-a. Patterson's struggles have already been noted, but Wolverines fans are hopeful his oblique injury is better after a week off. The offensive line issues are puzzling. The Wolverines are #11 in the Big Ten in rushing ypa at just 3.8, ranking among the bottom 25 in the entire FBS, in terms of Power Success rate (#12 in Big Ten) and standard down sack rate (#13 in Big Ten). The most concerning is that 55.6% power success rate, meaning the Wolverines are basically a 50/50 coin flip on converting a 3rd or 4th and 2 or less. Now they face a Wisconsin run defense that rivals Michigan State for the best in the nation thus far. In fact, Wisconsin has the only defensive line that is grading out higher than the Spartans' thus far. Michigan has the weapons, the line and Patterson just need to step up and let them make plays. The Badgers have the opposite issue. Their line, expectedly, ranks #1 in the nation in Power Success Rate and Sack Rate. But how really are their skill players aside from Jonathan Taylor, and is Jack Coan for real. The Badgers ran the ball well enough a year ago, 183 yards on 6.3 ypc, led by 101 from Taylor. But Wisconsin was completely one dimensional, and once Michigan made it a two score game in the 3rd quarter, it was game over, because Wisconsin could not throw the ball at all. Alex Hornibrook was 7-20 for 100 yards, a meaningless touchdown with 3 minutes left down 38-7, and 2 picks. His Raw QBR of 0.9 was the 4th worst single game of any quarterback in the FBS last year. Coan looks like he has grown by leaps and bounds, but I still question how much the Badger receivers can challenge this elite Michigan secondary. If they can't Wisconsin has already proven that running the ball well, alone, isn't enough. If Michigan can get a lead, it may start to snowball like it did last year, but I can't fully buy into the Michigan offense, until I see Patterson and the line deliver on the preseason hype. |
