CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on March 19, 2021, 09:15:36 PM
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Well I'm sad to be starting this so early but the 2020-2021 season in now over for half of our teams.
What will the 2021-2022 season bring?
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(https://pics.me.me/thumb_my-prediction-pain-you-better-buckle-up-buttercup-so-the-23727121.png)
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Impossible to say until we know who takes advantage of the extra year, and where the transfer portal takes us.
College basketball is a year to year sport now.
In a prior age, I'd say Purdue would be the preseason favorite, ahead of probably Michigan #2, OSU #3, and MSU? #4?
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With the transfer portal and the extra year figuring out rosters is going to be a challenge. This stuff can be wildly unpredictable - I was absolutely shocked when Luther Muhammad left, so take anything I say with a caveat. For OSU:
- CJ Walker has already announced he is done
- Kyle Young can come back, and hasn't said whether he will. I don't have a good guess on him, either. He doesn't have much pro upside, but he also has a history of nagging injuries. Either way wouldn't surprise me
- EJ Liddell and Duane Washington probably have the most pro upside, but I have yet to see them in any mock drafts. Thought Washington might get on the radar with a great tourney, but, uh...
- Justice Sueing is probably back. Seth Towns is a bit more of a mystery - his knee has given him constant problems and I'm not sure if that's a forever thing or not.
- No reason that Justin Ahrens or Zed Key would leave that I can see
- Musa Jallow might be a transfer candidate. He is a useful defender but gives them nothing on offense.
- Jimmy Sotos is also a question. The Buckeyes need a point guard, but he also didn't look that good.
- Gene Brown and Meechie Johnson should both be back. I would expect way more minutes for both.
- Ibrahim Diallo is a mystery - he suffered an injury that made him unavailable for most of the season, so it's tough to say what the staff thinks of him
- Buckeyes adding two freshmen in Malaki Branham and Kalen Etzler. Branham is top 30 recruit who profiles as a big, athletic guard (which they can really use). Etzler is a 6'8'' forward with a pure stroke from three. He looks a little skinny to be able to contribute a ton next year.
If you had to pin me down I'd say Young leaves, Jallow leaves, Sotos leaves, and Towns gives it another go. The starting lineup is:
- Washington
- Ahrens
- Sueing
- Towns
- Liddell
They play another long bench, with Johnson, Key, and Branham getting pretty solid minutes. They are also active in the transfer portal to get a big guy and a point guard.
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Welp, was hoping to not hop in here until next week. A lot departures coming for UW, should be an interesting new team.
Expected departures: Trice, Potter, Ford, Reuvers. All have been important at points. I wish Ford and Reuvers had finished better, but that's life. These guys seem remote possibilities to use an extra year.
Shoo-in rotation guys
Tyler Wahl: He's gonna be a starter for two years. I think he's primarily a power forward, but he's done some small forward stuff. His shooting has been so-so, but he's 6-9, can post, can guard a range of guys. I don't know he's a star, but he's an anchor.
Johnny Davis: Right now the team's functional best small forward. There's some wondering if he can play shooting guard. A lot of folks really like his offensive potential. I'm a little more reserved there, but I think he'll be a 30-plus MPG guy as long as he wants to be at UW just because of two-way skills.
Seniors we're waiting on
Trevor Anderson: The most likely guy to return. He's a serviceable third guard in a pinch and a really nice fourth guard. He's got kind of a low ceiling, but a good guy to have around.
Brad Davison: He seems like a big maybe, and UW could use him. I know many don't like him and some of his stuff is irksome to watch and he's not super dynamic, but UW is gonna need guards it can throw out there and not worry about, and he's mostly that. A few UW fans have worried about other guys getting minutes, but if UW ends up with three other guards better than him, we're fine.
Other returners who need to prove themselves
Ben Carlson: The highest rated recruit last year. He was a end of the rotation guy before a back injury. Would’ve got some run with the center issues. He played in garbage time Friday. I think he might start at center next to Wahl. Maybe.
Steven Crowl: A freshman this year who probably would’ve redshirted had that been a thing this year. Reports are he can play. If he’s rotation quality next year, that’s a big boost.
Guys I’m not expecting in the rotation
Jordan Davis: Johnny’s less talented brother. He might have potential as a shooter/defensive guard at some point. Maybe not yet.
Joe Hedstrom: Big 7-foot project. Feels more likely to be gone than matter next year.
The unusual newcomer
Lorne Bowman: a guard the staff is excited for. Was supposed to be in the roster this season, but between COVID blues and some family stuff, never played. Would’ve likely been the top guard off the bench this season. Not sure how he’ll be when he’s back.
The freshmen
Chucky Hepburn: stout athletic point, he looks like a good one. Some UW fans think he’ll end up starting. I wouldn’t rule it out, and if you said he started his sophomore-senior years, I’d believe it. At worse, he’s a third guard on a team with a mess of third guard options. (In HS, he won a state title and battled for another with a SUPER talented team on the other side).
Matt Mors: thick but springy 6-7 forward. I was high on him, but some UW recruiting moves and sluggish playoff games have me wondering. I think he has potential, but am not sure where it is.
Chris Hodges: Stout 6-8, 235-pound big with a nice jumper. I’ve read he’ll need some time after not playing HS ball last year. Not sure where he'll land in the rotation and such.
Marcus Ilver: Skinny 6-8 combo forward. Needs to add weight and mature. Betting a redshirt.
Mystery grad transfers
One of the assistants intimated they'll make a run at a grad transfer point guard. Some fans are high on the idea of Hepburn, but I think you need an experienced option, even if I really like Hepburn. Worse comes to worse, an elder transfer can be insurance. In terms of need on that front.
1. Point guard - They don't have an even sort of experienced option here outside Anderson, who ain't playing big minutes/starting.
2. Shooting guard (only if Davison leaves, but that could be an issue)
3. Hard-nosed big: Some UW fans were really, REALLY excited for this idea after some problems here this season. I'm more lukewarm on it as a "need" since UW has Wahl and at least has worked with Carlson and Crowl. If it's a "need" the staff will get after it. But the guys who had their tough moments this season are mostly gone.
4. Wildcard good talent they take because you can always use more good players: They're after a GW combo forward transfer who score 17 a game this year. Guessing they'll look around.
They only have two transfer spots, maybe three if Hedstrom leaves.
They need 7-9 guys out of that group. The set of Davis and Wahl can cover two of the starting 2/3/4 spots (Wahl could maybe play some center, but it seems unlikely). Davison would cover the 2 if he returns. I think that batch includes at least a quality third guard and backup big. Just need to turn out a few more spots.
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I think Potter will stay, to be honest.
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https://twitter.com/Rivals/status/1374128226059051008?s=19
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A physical for a HC?
Bob Huggins has heart attacks on the sidelines, FFS.
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The Terps could possibly have everybody back. Even Morsell is considering it. I think the only other chance of early departure is Wiggins, which would hurt.
They just need to find a big somewhere...
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Gophers hire Ben Johnson as the next coach. The collective reaction is: "Who?" Very underwhelming hire.
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https://twitter.com/Rivals/status/1374128226059051008?s=19
Or not:
https://www.si.com/college/ohiostate/.amp/basketball/former-ohio-state-basketball-coach-thad-matta-failed-physical-before-landing-indiana-job
Ar this point, who knows what the real story is.
If Matta could get back to what he accomplished in Columbus in his first decade or so, he'd be flat out scary in Bloomington.
Matta's tOSU teams from 2005/06 (the first year they were postseason eligible) through 2012/13 (his last good team):
- 05/6: 1st in the B1G, R32.
- 06/7: 1st in the B1G, National runner-up.
- 07/8: 5th in the B1G, NIT Champ, got screwed to not get selected for NCAA.
- 08/9: tied for 4th in the B1G, R64.
- 09/10: tied for 1st in the B1G, S16.
- 10/11: 1st in the B1G, S16.
- 11/12: tied for 1st in the B1G, F4.
- 12/13: tied for second in the B1G, E8.
That was a heck of a run. At the time I thought tOSU had found our "Izzo" and he'd be leading great tOSU BB teams for 25-30 years.
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Aaron Wheeler in the transfer portal for Purdue. No real surprise at all, he'll be a grad transfer (though with the new NCAA rule, that doesn't matter). Given the 2 stuff frosh forwards we have coming in, this is probably the smartest move.
As a fan he often was a confounding player, great athlete and length, and had a nice looking stroke, but would go through streaks of like 15 misses in a row from deep. Hey, at least he always showed up for the IU game. Regardless he was a good locker room/team guy per all reports, so it sucks to lose that type of role player presence.
If Purdue could find an experienced, talented PG in the transfer portal, it would help seal a current hole on the team.
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I've been planning to write up my 2021-22 preview and was going to highlight that nobody was departing due to lack of eligibility, but I saw him as a possible departure due to his up-and-down performance and the incoming freshmen at his position...
Not too surprising. Seemed like a really good kid, and one of the best "bench" teammates I've seen--really excited for the team when something good happened. Hard not to like him.
I really wanted to see him put it all together this year. Again, he showed flashes here and there, but it was never consistent. He could be REALLY good--i.e. NBA material--if it all comes together... He's got the skills and the athleticism, but sadly only ~25% of the time...
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For what will *hopefully* be a return to a normal season, MSU is the Big Ten rep in the Battle 4 Atlantis (which has seemingly passed Maui although, I still prefer that one), joining Baylor, Syracuse, UConn, ASU, Auburn, Loyola, and VCU
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Bit of a surprise. Trevor Anderson, a walk on turned valuable scholarship guy is hitting the portal. Insiders say he’s headed to Wisconsin – Milwaukee.
I didn’t see that coming, but I get it. He was going to be an excellent insurance player for the badgers. But, if they wanted to go into next season with any experience in the back court, it was a somewhat decent chance he would get squeezed into a very small role. He helped the team win a conference title and was super valuable this year. Wish him nothing but good luck.
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Bit of a surprise. Trevor Anderson, a walk on turned valuable scholarship guy is hitting the portal. Insiders say he’s headed to Wisconsin – Milwaukee.
I didn’t see that coming, but I get it. He was going to be an excellent insurance player for the badgers. But, if they wanted to go into next season with any experience in the back court, it was a somewhat decent chance he would get squeezed into a very small role. He helped the team win a conference title and was super valuable this year. Wish him nothing but good luck.
Worth noting Wisconsin-Milwaukee's coach's kid is a five star prospect who may go play for his dad
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Worth noting Wisconsin-Milwaukee's coach's kid is a five star prospect who may go play for his dad
Also worth noting, getting a recruit to commit to you, just means you have to play him as a freshman, or you'll lose him. Almost better to be a transfer destination, then an original commitment at this point. Because the powers that be would rather drive college sports into the ground, then pay athletes, or apparently allow them to get paid
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I think Potter will stay, to be honest.
I thought so too but apparently not:
https://wkow.com/2021/03/24/badgers-potter-announces-hes-leaving-wisconsin/
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I thought so too but apparently not:
https://wkow.com/2021/03/24/badgers-potter-announces-hes-leaving-wisconsin/
That always seems like a stretch to me. He probably has the best pro potential of anyone in the Wisconsin senior class. He has been in college for five years, about to get married. He should get paid to play basketball somewhere for a good long while assuming health. I always thought his chances of coming back for your six for pretty low.
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I think Potter will stay, to be honest.
Or not.
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Bit of a surprise. Trevor Anderson, a walk on turned valuable scholarship guy is hitting the portal. Insiders say he’s headed to Wisconsin – Milwaukee.
I didn’t see that coming, but I get it. He was going to be an excellent insurance player for the badgers. But, if they wanted to go into next season with any experience in the back court, it was a somewhat decent chance he would get squeezed into a very small role. He helped the team win a conference title and was super valuable this year. Wish him nothing but good luck.
From UWGB to UW to UWM and then UW__??
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Shaka now headed to Marquette. Meaning that there is a decent chance that Beard will trash the dreams of both Raiders and Hoosiers alike by jumping to Texas.
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Shaka now headed to Marquette. Meaning that there is a decent chance that Beard will trash the dreams of both Raiders and Hoosiers alike by jumping to Texas.
I'm good with that.
The last thing I want to see is Chris Beard in Bloomington. He's actually good at his job, and we can't have that down there.
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This transfer portal thing, particularly in men's hoops, is turning into quite the shit show.
Feels like AAU (scum) on steroids right now.
This is likely the beginning of the end for developmental programs like Wisconsin.
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The beard guy from Eastern Washington is now in the portal. Screw this.
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Some interesting Shaka or Moser debate apparently within the Marquette Trustees/AD if my, pretty good sources, people are to be believed.
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This transfer portal thing, particularly in men's hoops, is turning into quite the shit show.
Feels like AAU (scum) on steroids right now.
This is likely the beginning of the end for developmental programs like Wisconsin.
I don't 'like' this but it really is ruinous to the sport imo, from everyone else's perspective. I recognize the argument for autonomy.
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I don't 'like' this but it really is ruinous to the sport imo, from everyone else's perspective. I recognize the argument for autonomy.
Yes. I don't get some can't acknowledge something as being mostly good (although far from always) for players, but bad for everyone else. Including the fans who fund the machine.
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Nebraska basketball didn't take long in adding a player from the transfer portal as Xavier freshman guard C.J. Wilcher announced his commitment to the Huskers on an Instagram post Friday morning.
Wilcher, a former four-star guard in the 2020 class, averaged 3.3 points and 1.1 rebounds a game for the Musketeers, though he started to come on late scoring 10 points against Marquette, a season high, and seven points against Butler in the final two games.
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Jack Hoiberg is entering the transfer portal. Do you think he could be coming to play for his Father?
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Jack Hoiberg is entering the transfer portal. Do you think he could be coming to play for his Father?
The rumors are that he wants to go somewhere where he could play
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Yes. I don't get some can't acknowledge something as being mostly good (although far from always) for players, but bad for everyone else. Including the fans who fund the machine.
I'll be interested to see if it is.
On the one hand, many people are saying, "This is ruining it for me." But people have been saying that about various things around sports forever. Maybe this breaks it. But I assume people thought million dollar coaches and players leaving early and whatnot were going to destroy sports, and they didn't really.
Maybe it will. But in my experience, fans like new things a lot. Very often more than old things. I don't know if that's impactful, but it's something I'm keeping in mind.
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I guess part of the appeal of the regular season now is to figure out who is on your team.
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Nate Reuvers is in the portal. Disappointing season, and the rumor is it was related to breaking up with his girlfriend.
This is a bit of a surprise because all we heard this season is that he was no longer pursuing basketball. Perhaps a change of scenery will help him.
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I'll be interested to see if it is.
On the one hand, many people are saying, "This is ruining it for me." But people have been saying that about various things around sports forever. Maybe this breaks it. But I assume people thought million dollar coaches and players leaving early and whatnot were going to destroy sports, and they didn't really.
Maybe it will. But in my experience, fans like new things a lot. Very often more than old things. I don't know if that's impactful, but it's something I'm keeping in mind.
I'm not sitting it out in some sort of protest or anything like that. I just preferred college sports to pro sports for many things that had little to do with the level of play. The more that is stripped away, just to give college players (sorry "student athletes") every freedom except to get paid, I just find myself losing interest. I've always bought Extra Innings, but this past year I bought the other 3 pro packages too. I bought League Pass one other time, but this is the first for Center Ice or Sunday Ticket. I've just naturally started drifting away from college sports.
I think the only MSU game I watched last year start to finish was Northwestern. I'd have it on in the background while I did other stuff, even the Michigan game, which was unheard of even 2-3 years ago, when I had two small children that actually made it HARDER to do. I treat college football like I treat MLB now. I like to have it on, but I don't much care about the result, and I don't feel the need to be engaged with how it's going. At least football, to an extent, is about the helmet, so IMO the portal has less of an impact on me there. Basketball has always been about the personalities. I think I still hate Brian Cardinal. Making it a year to year sport, meh. I'm no fan of Fran, but I found myself rooting for Iowa this year, simply because they were a team of guys that had built together over the course of the past couple years, and I feel like I knew them.
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The beard guy from Eastern Washington is now in the portal. Screw this.
We might get to see him more than once!
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Sparty gets a point guard in Northeastern transfer Tyson Walter.
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I'm not sitting it out in some sort of protest or anything like that. I just preferred college sports to pro sports for many things that had little to do with the level of play. The more that is stripped away, just to give college players (sorry "student athletes") every freedom except to get paid, I just find myself losing interest. I've always bought Extra Innings, but this past year I bought the other 3 pro packages too. I bought League Pass one other time, but this is the first for Center Ice or Sunday Ticket. I've just naturally started drifting away from college sports.
I think the only MSU game I watched last year start to finish was Northwestern. I'd have it on in the background while I did other stuff, even the Michigan game, which was unheard of even 2-3 years ago, when I had two small children that actually made it HARDER to do. I treat college football like I treat MLB now. I like to have it on, but I don't much care about the result, and I don't feel the need to be engaged with how it's going. At least football, to an extent, is about the helmet, so IMO the portal has less of an impact on me there. Basketball has always been about the personalities. I think I still hate Brian Cardinal. Making it a year to year sport, meh. I'm no fan of Fran, but I found myself rooting for Iowa this year, simply because they were a team of guys that had built together over the course of the past couple years, and I feel like I knew them.
I agree with this, at least to a certain extent. Seeing kids commit to your school, seeing them develop, knowing they have a finite amount of time in the program - that is all part of the fun of watching college sports. Unlimited transfers do damage that experience. The amount of guys in the transfer portal is already huge - at some point it's just watching a random collection of guys against another random selection of guys and rooting for the right uniform.
But the NCAA created this problem. They held on tight to the idea that even in a multibillion dollar business, they shouldn't have to pay their most important employees. "Amateurism" became code for any old restriction they could think of, but logically speaking, you can't say it is important to keep players "amateur" and also say they shouldn't get to go to whichever school that will have them. This constant effort to have their cake and eat it too has really kept them from looking at what is important for college sports and focusing on that, instead of the treadmill of trying to eke out every last buck.
TLDR - restrictions on transfers make more sense when a school is invested in you. But under current rules a kid doesn't get anything different from one school to the next. So why restrict them from going to one school or the next?
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TLDR - restrictions on transfers make more sense when a school is invested in you. But under current rules a kid doesn't get anything different from one school to the next. So why restrict them from going to one school or the next?
So I kinda don't believe this. I think it's just a case of seeing there's a broader world. Like kids used to transfer some, usually when a coach had to run someone off or when they just felt like dipping out. But now, there's just so much info.
In 1995, finding out there was going to be an opening somewhere was hard. And getting in contact with places was hard. And getting info and film over was hard. And now it's all just easier on kids and families. Also, coaches probably got more leeway and had less ability to find and woo transfers.
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So I kinda don't believe this. I think it's just a case of seeing there's a broader world. Like kids used to transfer some, usually when a coach had to run someone off or when they just felt like dipping out. But now, there's just so much info.
In 1995, finding out there was going to be an opening somewhere was hard. And getting in contact with places was hard. And getting info and film over was hard. And now it's all just easier on kids and families. Also, coaches probably got more leeway and had less ability to find and woo transfers.
Might be talking about two different things - what I mean is restrictions on transfers make more sense when a school is paying a player (directly or indirectly), and not when they aren't paying.
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Might be talking about two different things - what I mean is restrictions on transfers make more sense when a school is paying a player (directly or indirectly), and not when they aren't paying.
I honestly think some of it was branding. The NCAA never really managed to get across that this situation was kinda gonna be pandemonium. Like, I'm ok with it, but really the best argument for the sit-out year, and one I don't disagree with, is that it provides a little speed bump and tamps down a little college kid impulsiveness. But coaches loved their "we have to teach them to battle adversity" moral high ground bit, and that was never that great.
But they managed to do enough kinda aggressively stupid stuff (Bo Ryan helped!) that it made it hard to make some logical arguments without seeming super hypocritical and extra holier than thou.
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Rocket Watts in the portal. Would be shocked if some or all of Loyer, Brown and Kithier didn't join him.
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Rocket Watts in the portal. Would be shocked if some or all of Loyer, Brown and Kithier didn't join him.
Wow. I figured those other guys would leave, but I thought he had a town to stick around and thrive if they used him correctly
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Wow. I figured those other guys would leave, but I thought he had a town to stick around and thrive if they used him correctly
He could be a great complimentary piece. But he can't play point, and if he wasn't there was nobody good enough to get him the ball.
He was really pretty horrible for 1.5 of his 2 years. He was great down the stretch last year, but terrible prior to that, and then the floor fell out this year. At one point he was the lowest rated individual player in Big Ten games, since KenPom started tracking that data (which I believe goes back 8 years)
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Minnesota coach Ben Johnson has added his first transfer commitment since taking over the head job.
The Gophers received a commitment from George Washington transfer Jamison Battle on Monday evening. Battle is a Minneapolis native.
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I'm not sitting it out in some sort of protest or anything like that. I just preferred college sports to pro sports for many things that had little to do with the level of play. The more that is stripped away, just to give college players (sorry "student athletes") every freedom except to get paid, I just find myself losing interest. I've always bought Extra Innings, but this past year I bought the other 3 pro packages too. I bought League Pass one other time, but this is the first for Center Ice or Sunday Ticket. I've just naturally started drifting away from college sports.
I think the only MSU game I watched last year start to finish was Northwestern. I'd have it on in the background while I did other stuff, even the Michigan game, which was unheard of even 2-3 years ago, when I had two small children that actually made it HARDER to do. I treat college football like I treat MLB now. I like to have it on, but I don't much care about the result, and I don't feel the need to be engaged with how it's going. At least football, to an extent, is about the helmet, so IMO the portal has less of an impact on me there. Basketball has always been about the personalities. I think I still hate Brian Cardinal. Making it a year to year sport, meh. I'm no fan of Fran, but I found myself rooting for Iowa this year, simply because they were a team of guys that had built together over the course of the past couple years, and I feel like I knew them.
Man you're making me depressed. I watch CBB and CFB as much as/more than I ever have. It's pro I have little no interest in, NFL the only one I still passively follow. NBA it's tough for me to get past a min or two.
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Purdue big man Emmanuel Dowuona enters the transfer portal.
He didn't suit up at all this season. Reportedly he had "breathing issues" which as fans we all assumed that he had a rough recovery from a COVID infection, but as with anything else, that's all rumor and speculation.
Coming into the year he was expected to be #3 behind Trevion Williams and Matt Haarms, and probably see Zach Edey redshirt. He was a bit of a project, with a lot of athleticism but not quite ready for prime time. Well, the world went to hell, Haarms transferred out, Dow had medical issues, and Edey showed the world that he was ahead of schedule.
So I'm guessing Dow is looking at the depth chart, and realizing that between Tre and Edey that he's not going to get a minute of PT, and with one of the incoming freshmen being a top-40 recruit as a 4/5 tweener, that he's going to get passed over for #3 on the depth chart.
I wish him the best. Dow leaving is probably going to be win-win, in that it will get him into a program where he can get playing time and it'll free up a scholarship for the Boilers.
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PSU point guard Jamari Wheeler transferring to OSU
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The rumors are that he wants to go somewhere where he could play
UT-Arlington for Mayor Jr. it is
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What are the thoughts on IU's new coaching situation?
Apparently Matta is picking up some sort of Associate AD for MBB title, so he won't actually be directly involved in coaching OR recruiting... Not sure exactly what his purpose is.
Woodson has never coached in college, has never had to recruit.
I'm sure they want to go for the Juwan Howard situation, particularly bringing in Matta similar to what Michigan did with Martelli. But Woodson is 15 years older than Howard at 63, and Matta isn't an assistant coach--he's an administrator. And Beilein left a functional organization behind him--IU is a rebuild job.
I don't see this ending well for IU--which of course makes me happy.
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Musa Jallow enters the transfer portal, EJ Liddell enters the draft process but is retaining his eligibility.
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What are the thoughts on IU's new coaching situation?
Apparently Matta is picking up some sort of Associate AD for MBB title, so he won't actually be directly involved in coaching OR recruiting... Not sure exactly what his purpose is.
Woodson has never coached in college, has never had to recruit.
I'm sure they want to go for the Juwan Howard situation, particularly bringing in Matta similar to what Michigan did with Martelli. But Woodson is 15 years older than Howard at 63, and Matta isn't an assistant coach--he's an administrator. And Beilein left a functional organization behind him--IU is a rebuild job.
I don't see this ending well for IU--which of course makes me happy.
I'm not sure. I think Woodson's track record in the NBA is pretty good. Howard was never a head coach at any level, so it made sense for an old timer to pair up with him on the bench. Woodson doesn't need head coaching help, he needs help navigating college recruiting, which Matta is familiar with. Now, as far as whether that equates to something resembling a strong Indiana program...I have no idea.
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Buckeyes playing in Maui Invitational next season
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Buckeyes playing in Maui Invitational next season
Fort Myers too. I might go to that one. Badgers were supposed to be there this past November but they bailed.
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Wow, Roy Williams retiring.
UNC, Texas and Indiana in the same cycle?
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Wow, Roy Williams retiring.
UNC, Texas and Indiana in the same cycle?
😬
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😬
Nothing showing up for me, but Beard goes to Texas
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Nothing showing up for me, but Beard goes to Texas
That's my "I bet Chris Holtmann is on a list in Chapel Hill somewhere" emoji
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That's my "I bet Chris Holtmann is on a list in Chapel Hill somewhere" emoji
If he's not, he should be
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Adam Miller in the portal, even though he is Illinois second best returning player. Power 5 schools can now absolutely not afford to recruit guys who cannot contribute as major players as freshmen. The plan now kind of has to be recruit four and five-star kids, and fill out 80% of your roster with transfers. Because any kid who comes in, and isn't an immediate star, is gone.
I'm not being overly dramatic when I say college sports are dying to me. They are giving away so many concessions that are killing it, to avoid letting the players get paid. I would rather let the players get every dime they can get, to maintain the one year redshirt policy for transfers. They assume the fans are on board no matter what, I guess
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While the transfer phenomena has certainly been getting worse, this year is ....hopefully.... an outlier due to the temporary elimination of the one-year-sit-out as a result of Covid2020.
I expected this year to be a bad year, but I don't think it will be nearly as bad next year.
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Adam Miller in the portal, even though he is Illinois second best returning player. Power 5 schools can now absolutely not afford to recruit guys who cannot contribute as major players as freshmen. The plan now kind of has to be recruit four and five-star kids, and fill out 80% of your roster with transfers. Because any kid who comes in, and isn't an immediate star, is gone.
I'm not being overly dramatic when I say college sports are dying to me. They are giving away so many concessions that are killing it, to avoid letting the players get paid. I would rather let the players get every dime they can get, to maintain the one year redshirt policy for transfers. They assume the fans are on board no matter what, I guess
I have read speculation that his family wasn't a fan of how much attention Ayo's family got. That they got more tickets. That Underwood is too tough on his players. That he wants to be a primary ball handler. Who knows? This one was a real shocker though to me.
I agree with you though. I am just caring less and less about college sports. Part of that is my teams are usually terrible to average. The other part is what you have highlighted. And another part is I am much older now. My kids are playing sports and doing their activities and those are by far more enjoyable watch.
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TJD announces he's returning to Indiana for his junior year
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TJD announces he's returning to Indiana for his junior year
Big win for Woodson
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Porter Moser headed to Oklahoma
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Porter Moser headed to Oklahoma
His resume is so, so weird.
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His resume is so, so weird.
Is it though? It took some time for him to develop the program, but he's on a pretty decent streak over the past four years. 1st three times in their conference and second once, with a final four appearance and thus year's team is tenth on KenPom.
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Is it though? It took some time for him to develop the program, but he's on a pretty decent streak over the past four years. 1st three times in their conference and second once, with a final four appearance and thus year's team is tenth on KenPom.
I mean, yeah?
He jumpstarted a Arkansas Little Rock program to being OK (following one ill-fated year from Sidney Moncrief and a run with Bama legend Wimp Sanderson), then flamed out at Illinois State. He had one winning season in his first five years at Loyola, and that was an 8-10 sixth-place team. He never finished better than fifth in his first 13 years.
Then he has two great teams and a couple pretty solid ones the past four years. But it's a weird resume. Seventeen years a coach, fifth-best season is ... 18-11 fifth in the sun belt, now maybe turning down IU. That's not to say he won't be good, but it's certianly unusual.
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I mean, yeah?
He jumpstarted a Arkansas Little Rock program to being OK (following one ill-fated year from Sidney Moncrief and a run with Bama legend Wimp Sanderson), then flamed out at Illinois State. He had one winning season in his first five years at Loyola, and that was an 8-10 sixth-place team. He never finished better than fifth in his first 13 years.
Then he has two great teams and a couple pretty solid ones the past four years. But it's a weird resume. Seventeen years a coach, fifth-best season is ... 18-11 fifth in the sun belt, now maybe turning down IU. That's not to say he won't be good, but it's certianly unusual.
I looked at his time at Illinois State. He got fired, but I wouldn't describe him as flaming out. His last team finished a touch less than .500, but finished 86th on KenPom, which is pretty decent. The next year they finished 25-10 and 56th on KenPom under Tim Jancovich, which would at least suggest the program was left in a decent shape.
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Drew Valentine, Denzel's older brother, who was a GA at MSU, expected to be promoted to head coach.
Will be interesting to see what kind of success he does or does not have there, to see if he winds up as a potential next MSU coach down the road
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I looked at his time at Illinois State. He got fired, but I wouldn't describe him as flaming out. His last team finished a touch less than .500, but finished 86th on KenPom, which is pretty decent. The next year they finished 25-10 and 56th on KenPom under Tim Jancovich, which would at least suggest the program was left in a decent shape.
That's fair, but it's still a team that finished eighth in a 10-team league.
Like, getting the second shot at all is rare. Getting the sixth and seventh years after some trials and tribulations, also rare. This doesn't mean he's bad or good because in truth, there's no telling. Darell Hazel did the impossible at Kent, and it didn't prove him a good coach. Mark Dantonio wasn't much better than the previous four years at Cincinnati, and he was excellent.
One thing I'll say for Porter, he's going to a job where you can make a final four, but it's also OK to turn in OK seasons a lot.It's a not-bad spot at all.
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Maryland adds a couple transfers in Rhode Island pg Fatts Russell and Georgetown center Qudus Wahab
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Maryland adds a couple transfers in Rhode Island pg Fatts Russell and Georgetown center Qudus Wahab
Apparently UM was heavily involved in the Russell chase and pulled out because both Brooks and Brown are returning for a 5th year, but Mike Smith and Austin Davis are not.
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Apparently UM was heavily involved in the Russell chase and pulled out because both Brooks and Brown are returning for a 5th year, but Mike Smith and Austin Davis are not.
That's odd. Russell is a pint-sized point and those two are off-guard types. I guess they're adding some backcourt kids and have one guy who was a good recruit last class but hardly played.
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That's odd. Russell is a pint-sized point and those two are off-guard types. I guess they're adding some backcourt kids and have one guy who was a good recruit last class but hardly played.
I'm still unclear on how these things work. I am told seniors who were out of eligibility won't count against the cap next year, at least for their own team. But if such a kid transfers to another program, does that still apply?
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I'm still unclear on how these things work. I am told seniors who were out of eligibility won't count against the cap next year, at least for their own team. But if such a kid transfers to another program, does that still apply?
I’m 90 percent sure it does not. Like, you can’t add free players.
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I’m 90 percent sure it does not. Like, you can’t add free players.
Correct, if you transfer, you count.
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Correct, if you transfer, you count.
Trying to manage rosters is something. Anyway, Michigan is at 13 players already, not counting the five seniors who all technically can come back. If Wagner leaves as expected, they could add a transfer or freshman, though I'm not sure Howard wants to manage a roster of 18 guys who all want to play.
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Trying to manage rosters is something. Anyway, Michigan is at 13 players already, not counting the five seniors who all technically can come back. If Wagner leaves as expected, they could add a transfer or freshman, though I'm not Howard wants to manage a roster of 18 guys who all want to play.
And that's issue with basketball
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Oleg Kojenets, a three-star big man out of Lithuania, has committed to Nebraska, sources told 247Sports.
"I felt that the Big Ten is a great league, it's one of the best ones in the whole Division I," Kojenets said of why he chose Nebraska. "I like the academics as much I did the basketball because it's a big school with lots of opportunities and I chose to go to America to combine those two. I felt Nebraska is going to be a great spot especially with all of the wonderful staff members and the great coach they have there."
The 6-foot-10, 215-pound center moved to the United States last season, playing for Hudson (Ohio) Western Reserve Academy and at one point was ranked in the 247Sports Top100 as a four-star recruit.
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Hubert Davis hired by North Carolina.
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Hubert Davis hired promoted by North Carolina.
FIFY
Anyone can feel free to correct me, but anecdotally it feels like that does not happen all that often anymore, that a guy moves from assistant to head coach, outside of the situations where it's an interim who is too successful for them to go any other direction
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FIFY
Anyone can feel free to correct me, but anecdotally it feels like that does not happen all that often anymore, that a guy moves from assistant to head coach, outside of the situations where it's an interim who is too successful for them to go any other direction
I dunno - it feels like something that doesn't happen much. Though Texas Tech appears to have hired a Chris Beard assistant to replace him.
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Kristian Lander and Jordan Geronimo withdraw from the portal to stay at IU. I'm still not sold on the Woodson hire but there seems to be some positivity coming out of the program.
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Correct, if you transfer, you count.
I get why they did that, but it still creates some odd situations. If tOSU and MSU each had a guy transfer to the other school, they would each lose a roster spot compared to if those guys stayed put. Strange.
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Lincoln – University of Nebraska men's basketball coach Fred Hoiberg announced the hiring of former Chicago Bulls assistant Nate Loenser (pronounced Lenzer) to the Husker coaching staff on Tuesday (April 6).
Hoiberg, who has worked with Loenser at both Iowa State (2013-15) and with the Chicago Bulls (2015-18), believes Loenser's combination of coaching experience at the NBA and collegiate levels and player development skills enhances the Husker program.
"This is the third time I had a chance to add Nate to my staff and believe that he is the best player development guy I have worked with," Hoiberg said. "He was a valuable member of our staff that won a pair of Big 12 Tournament titles in Ames. In Chicago, he did a remarkable job with our G League team in its first season, as we had more than a dozen players recalled or sign with other NBA teams. He has earned the respect of players around the league because of his ability to relate with players, and to help them reach their goals. We are pleased to welcome Nate and his family to Lincoln."
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UW transfer Trevor Anderson lands at Valpo. Sounds like he wants minutes that he wasn't gonna get in the B1G.
Center Nate Reuvers was in the portal, but he's going pro, which was what he was always gonna do.
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Duane Washington at least exploring the NBA
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Duane Washington at least exploring the NBA
So do the Kardashians
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So do the Kardashians
Not sure they're the ones "exploring".
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Not sure they're the ones "exploring".
Well, it's certainly not the NBA exploring them.
Those caves have already been Spelunked so many times that there's a lighted path and daily tour groups.
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Brad Davison will return for Year 5.
That’s quite good for UW, which now has three Surefire starters.
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Lol, shocker
https://twitter.com/BadgerMBB/status/1382378346076635138?s=19
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Maryland fans heads explode.
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isn't Davidson the dirty player that causes Fran and the Hawkeye fans grief?
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Lol, shocker
https://twitter.com/BadgerMBB/status/1382378346076635138?s=19
With how long he waited, he’d have better been coming back.
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The Nebraska men's basketball program added another former top-100 recruit with high major experience with the addition of C.J. Wilcher (pronounced WILL-chur) who will join the Huskers for the 2021-22 campaign. Wilcher, a 6-foot-5, 195-pound guard from Plainfield, N.J., transferred from Xavier, and will have four seasons of eligibility at Nebraska.
The Nebraska basketball program added more size to its highly-rated recruiting class with the signing of Oleg Kojenets (pronounced Oh-leg Co-yah-nets) to a National Letter-of-Intent on Wednesday, April 14.
Kojenets, a 7-foot, 220-pound forward from Kaunas, Lithuania, is a three-star recruit by both 247Sports and Rivals and was ranked in the top-100 nationally by 247Sports prior to his senior season. He is currently ranked among the top-200 players nationally, and the No. 25 center nationally, in the 247Sports Composite.
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Kyle Young coming back to the Bucks for a fifth season
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Bucks plan to add a big man. The hope was for 5 star center Efton Reid, who was supposed to announce yesterday. However, he didn't, and while no one knows what is going on with him, teams like LSU are in the mix, which makes me think him going to OSU is doubtful.
Heard two names the Bucks are looking at - Depaul sophmore center Nick Ongenda and Indiana senior Joey Brunk. Brunk actually started his career with Holtmann at Butler. Neither is going to move the needle besides offering some depth at center, which is certainly a need.
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UW landed a point guard transfer yesterday. Came from Wake. Numbers aren't good, but looks like a thicker kid at 6-3. Seems the staff liked him out of HS.
At worst, he's a veteran hand who could play 2-3 spots in a pinch. UW now has the ability to field a reasonable starting lineup of players who have at least a year in a college program. I still could see the transfer not getting a bigger role, but he'd at least make the freshmen work, in that case.
UW has one more spot and could use a big for extra muscle insurance. Some smoke around Penn State's former starting center, but we'll see. He wouldn't be a great offensive fit, but bulk, defense and rebounding is nice.
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Buckeyes indeed add Joey Brunk
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Buckeyes indeed add Joey Brunk
Did he opt out this year? I assumed he had just graduated...or started collecting social security
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UW landed a point guard transfer yesterday. Came from Wake. Numbers aren't good, but looks like a thicker kid at 6-3. Seems the staff liked him out of HS.
At worst, he's a veteran hand who could play 2-3 spots in a pinch. UW now has the ability to field a reasonable starting lineup of players who have at least a year in a college program. I still could see the transfer not getting a bigger role, but he'd at least make the freshmen work, in that case.
UW has one more spot and could use a big for extra muscle insurance. Some smoke around Penn State's former starting center, but we'll see. He wouldn't be a great offensive fit, but bulk, defense and rebounding is nice.
Weird pickup.
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Did he opt out this year? I assumed he had just graduated...or started collecting social security
Close - he had back surgery
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Weird pickup.
Michigan did pretty ok with their transfer guard from Wake last year.
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Michigan did pretty ok with their transfer guard from Wake last year.
Right, but they just kinda pushed out a guard (Anderson) to make room for all the new ones coming in.
This one doesn't make sense to me. They need a big guy more than anything.
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Right, but they just kinda pushed out a guard (Anderson) to make room for all the new ones coming in.
This one doesn't make sense to me. They need a big guy more than anything.
They didn’t push out Anderson. He wanted a bigger role and they couldn’t give it to him. Plus, he wouldn’t have counted against the scholarship limit anyway.
They wanted a guy who has played some level of college point guard since the only other options are true freshmen. And they still have room for that big.
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The Nebraska basketball program added more size to its highly-rated recruiting class with the signing of Oleg Kojenets (pronounced Oh-leg Co-yah-nets) to a National Letter-of-Intent on Wednesday, April 14.
Kojenets, a 7-foot, 220-pound forward from Kaunas, Lithuania, is a three-star recruit by both 247Sports and Rivals and was ranked in the top-100 nationally by 247Sports prior to his senior season. He is currently ranked among the top-200 players nationally, and the No. 25 center nationally, in the 247Sports Composite.
Nebraska men's basketball added its second top-100 transfer of the spring on Monday, as Keon Edwards announced that he will join the Huskers for the 2021-22 season. Edwards, a 6-foot-7, 185-pound forward from Pasadena, Texas, comes to Nebraska after the spending the 2020-21 season at DePaul University and will have four years of eligibility beginning next fall.
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The Nebraska basketball program added more size to its highly-rated recruiting class with the signing of Oleg Kojenets (pronounced Oh-leg Co-yah-nets) to a National Letter-of-Intent on Wednesday, April 14.
Kojenets, a 7-foot, 220-pound forward from Kaunas, Lithuania, is a three-star recruit by both 247Sports and Rivals and was ranked in the top-100 nationally by 247Sports prior to his senior season. He is currently ranked among the top-200 players nationally, and the No. 25 center nationally, in the 247Sports Composite.
Nebraska men's basketball added its second top-100 transfer of the spring on Monday, as Keon Edwards announced that he will join the Huskers for the 2021-22 season. Edwards, a 6-foot-7, 185-pound forward from Pasadena, Texas, comes to Nebraska after the spending the 2020-21 season at DePaul University and will have four years of eligibility beginning next fall.
Should team with Thor Thornwsdfpkajngfasf to make life terrible for announcers
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They didn’t push out Anderson. He wanted a bigger role and they couldn’t give it to him. Plus, he wouldn’t have counted against the scholarship limit anyway.
They wanted a guy who has played some level of college point guard since the only other options are true freshmen. And they still have room for that big.
Well, they kinda did, by telling him he wasn't getting a bigger role and to look elsewhere.
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Well, they kinda did, by telling him he wasn't getting a bigger role and to look elsewhere.
I mean, there's a two-pronged thing there. 1. It seems like it would be bad for Gard to lie to the kid, especially if this is his aim. 2. Anderson is smart. He knows the play. If I do, he does.
The fact is, he's not good enough to have a starting role on a Big Ten team. The staff is worried about his knees, for good reason, and even last year, we saw that he was more complementary than primary guy and had some moments when he got overwhelmed. Even last year was slightly stretching his ability. He was a great No. 4 guard in the Big Ten, and a high-floor No. 3 guard who wasn't going to make that many plays.
I don't know if the new kid is gonna be as good as Anderson was, but he has the ability to be better and the possibility to be a 30-MPG guy, which Trevor didn't. I'm sure at the start Gard was honest and said we need another point guard type. With the talent coming in, that might make Anderson a fifth guard, and if he didn't want that possibility, I'm happy he'll go to a spot where he can get it. (Some of this also falls on a set of pandemic-related things. If Bowman comes in last year, they can probably go without a transfer point. And if there's no pandemic, Brad can't come back)
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Purdue hires OSU assistant Terry Johnson:
https://www.hammerandrails.com/2021/4/22/22397547/matt-painter-fills-coaching-vacancy-with-ohio-state-assistant-terry-johnson-ohio-state-purdue
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Wow, Terrence Clarke, who was a top 10 recruit nationally, but had a disappointing freshman year at Kentucky, died in a car crash tonight
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Wow, Terrence Clarke, who was a top 10 recruit nationally, but had a disappointing freshman year at Kentucky, died in a car crash tonight
That's so sad.
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Iowa adds North Dakota grad transfer Filip Rebraca to replace some of the size it lost inside and then gets Jordan Bohannon back for a 6th year. Bohannon will be able to put some distance on his Iowa all-time 3pt and assist records. He was always going to have those records based on a 4-year trajectory, but the Jess Settles length career really helps put them way up there.
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Iowa adds North Dakota grad transfer Filip Rebraca to replace some of the size it lost inside and then gets Jordan Bohannon back for a 6th year. Bohannon will be able to put some distance on his Iowa all-time 3pt and assist records. He was always going to have those records based on a 4-year trajectory, but the Jess Settles length career really helps put them way up there.
I do think that this weird extra year puts an asterisk on every single all-time record for counting stats.
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LOL, Emoni Bates decommitted, shocker!
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Just in case any other outsiders decided to have a problem on the kid's behalf
https://twitter.com/SpartanTailgate/status/1389298323140628483?s=20
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Ibrahima Diallo entering the transfer portal for the Bucks. He barely played so you've probably never heard of him. It does open a roster spot, though. Rumors are they are interested in NAIA Player of the year EJ Onu, who played for Shawnee State University, which is in my hometown.
Edit: I just want to add how incredibly wild it is to me that there is an article on ESPN about a guy at Shawnee State University.
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Nebraska men's basketball continued to add to its highest ranked class in program history with the addition of combo guard Quaran McPherson on Wednesday (May 5).
McPherson, a 6-foot-4, 180-pound guard from New York City, spent last season at Link Year School in Branson, Mo.
He is one of five signees for the 2020-21 season in a recruiting class which is in the top-15 nationally by ESPN and 247Sports. McPherson joins incoming freshmen Bryce McGowens, Wilhelm Breidenbach and Oleg Kojenets, as well as junior college transfer Keisei Tominaga.
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UW lands a big center transfer from Cincinnati.
Looks like a big hammer who can't shoot. Fits a need and also might not play 8 minutes game, but not a bad get.
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Hmmm
https://twitter.com/GaryParrishCBS/status/1392488832847818752?s=19
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must have a great relationship with Dad
or Mom put her foot down
or both
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Hmmm
https://twitter.com/GaryParrishCBS/status/1392488832847818752?s=19
UWM's highest ranking recruit ever. One and done.
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Hmmm
https://twitter.com/GaryParrishCBS/status/1392488832847818752?s=19
If he doesn’t go, his dad is very likely fired at year’s end. Might still be, but maybe not if his kid is that good.
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must have a great relationship with Dad
or Mom put her foot down
or both
Better than Fred and Jack?
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Coach K retiring after the season
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Good riddance.
Couldn't resist the "kiss my ring" tour and go out quietly. Such an asshole.
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It's not college basketball (although who knows, could he return), but Brad Stevens moving off courtside to replace Danny Ainge as the president of the Celtics...
What's the endgame? Does he really want to run the team without being the coach? Is this just an interim move?
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I'm not being overly dramatic when I say college sports are dying to me. They are giving away so many concessions that are killing it, to avoid letting the players get paid. I would rather let the players get every dime they can get, to maintain the one year redshirt policy for transfers. They assume the fans are on board no matter what, I guess
I feel exactly the same way, ELA. The "cure" for not paying players -- all these concessions that amount to free agency -- is going to kill my interest. I used to be an avid fan of pro sports, but when I took a step back and realized that each team was increasingly becoming just an "office" that the all the same employees shuttle in and out of, it took my rooting interest away and I stopped caring. When the Redskins were suddenly comprised of last year's Cowboys and Giants, they weren't really the Redskins anymore to me (ironic, since now they really aren't the Redskins anymore, I guess). I'll be sad if that happens with college sports.
I'd rather let players make money off their own images, or whatever that phrase is, and continue to stick my head in the sand so I don't see all the corruption, ha ha...
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Neither Hunter Dickinson or Duane Washington Jr. were among the 40 invites to the NBA Draft combine, so it would appear both are back, and UM and OSU are the clear preseason favorites.
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Neither Hunter Dickinson or Duane Washington Jr. were among the 40 invites to the NBA Draft combine, so it would appear both are back, and UM and OSU are the clear preseason favorites.
The system working mostly as is should.
That was a smart addendum. Letting kids know "hey, you are not, in fact, that good."
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Sent back down to the minors.
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Whoa, 1994 Michigan St at Nebraska hoops game on big network. I was at this one. Great game.
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Jae'san Tate, who graduated from OSU in 2018, makes NBA First team all rookie squad.
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This is really ugly.
Sam Dekker on Twitter: "Who the hell gave these guys the idea that they’re bigger than the program? Never been angrier reading an article. And recording a meeting is the softest thing I’ve ever seen. Grow up. Coaches coach. Gard isn’t the one on a 8 min scoring drought every game. Get outta here." / Twitter (https://twitter.com/dekker/status/1407360904757456897)
(https://i.imgur.com/5Q8FzFx.png)
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Yikes.
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I've heard various criticisms of Gard, but never that he was using UW as a resume builder
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I've heard various criticisms of Gard, but never that he was using UW as a resume builder
I kinda love the low-end pompousness of that one.
Kid, you’re here to be play basketball and get a degree. The coach‘s résumé is basically about how well his teams play basketball and how well his kids get degrees.
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I'm seeing some speculation on reddit and elsewhere that Alando Tucker is possibly the source or the recording and leak.
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I'm seeing some speculation on reddit and elsewhere that Alando Tucker is possibly the source or the recording and leak.
There's a lot of smoke on that front from some of the the more tied in folks. There's also some rumblings that he went to the admin at some point during the season and said that Gard should be out and he should be made coach.
If true, that would be deeply unfortunate.
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So, apparently the audio was edited from over 2.5 hours down to 37 minutes. None of the coaches were heard from on the tape.
There are several credible people, including my favorite beat writer, saying that this was leaked by Alando Tucker.
Tucker was not retained as an assistant after the season.
There are some lesser credible people, but normally reliable, saying that Tucker went to the AD, trying to get Gard fired - in a coup attempt no less.
It will be interesting to see how this all shakes out.
As for one of the players saying the underclassmen were also very pissed...
None of them transferred. Not one.
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There's a lot of smoke on that front from some of the the more tied in folks. There's also some rumblings that he went to the admin at some point during the season and said that Gard should be out and he should be made coach.
If true, that would be deeply unfortunate.
You beat me to this.
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Not sure what to think of that
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Kinda explains how a Big Ten championship team returning all but one role player came crashing down with a thud last season, yes?
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Potrykus, or someone else?
A bad clubhouse/locker room can crater a team's performance in a hurry.
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Kinda explains how a Big Ten championship team returning all but one role player came crashing down with a thud last season, yes?
I mean, yeah? The thing is, Wisconsin probably overachieved a bit a couple years ago and underachieved a bit last year, but they weren't truly bad - they were still a pretty solid squad. It wasn't like the bottom fell out like those latter year Thad Matta teams. I guess it reframes the Kobe King debacle a bit, but otherwise, I don't know that it really does much. If they field solid teams then Gard will be fine, and if they don't then he'll get canned. Looking inside the sausage doesn't really tell you if it's good.
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Kinda explains how a Big Ten championship team returning all but one role player came crashing down with a thud last season, yes?
Ehhh. I think it's a little chicken and egg.
Some kids played badly. Maybe it's because of strain with their coach. Maybe it's because they came a bit back down to earth. Either way, they mess up here and there, coach gets upset, they get upset, yada, yada.
I mean, they caught a tough schedule and failed to win close games against very good teams, a year after winning a mess of close games in a slightly worse Big Ten. I think they needed to be clicking to compete last year, and even their good not great game might not have been top-10 like expected. But they were also not clicking and it seemed to compound.
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NCAA penalizes Creighton basketball program for violations tied to former assistant coach in FBI probe
A former Bluejays assistant accepted $6,000, and the school now faces sanctions though he never kept the money
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So, apparently the audio was edited from over 2.5 hours down to 37 minutes. None of the coaches were heard from on the tape.
That was the most damning part IMO. I could win an argument with my wife, if you could cut out 80% of it
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That was the most damning part IMO. I could win an argument with my wife, if you could cut out 80% of it
I think your percentage is low. I could only win an argument with my wife if I cut out 98%, which would consist of every part of the argument except for the first sentence where I say my opinion, and the conversation just ends there.:67:
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Y'all argue with your wives?
(https://i.imgur.com/8iV3Qs6.png)
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Potrykus, or someone else?
A bad clubhouse/locker room can crater a team's performance in a hurry.
Potrykus. He's been all over this one. And he's not pleased with Tucker right now. Nobody is.
Good to see you, my friend.
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https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1408090607529123841?s=20
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Fringe prospects Aaron Wiggins of Maryland and Duane Washington of OSU got last second NBA Combine invites after participating in a G League thing.
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Purdue SO Jaden Ivey and incoming FR Caleb First both selected for the Team USA U-19 squad in the world basketball cup tournament in Latvia.
SO Zach Edey (who had apparently grown to 7'6") has apparently made the Canadian men's national team. They're in a qualifying tournament in BC amongst 5 other countries for inclusion into the Tokyo games.
Great honors for all of them, and great experience for them to bring back in advance of this season.
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Purdue SO Jaden Ivey and incoming FR Caleb First both selected for the Team USA U-19 squad in the world basketball cup tournament in Latvia.
SO Zach Edey (who had apparently grown to 7'6") has apparently made the Canadian men's national team. They're in a qualifying tournament in BC amongst 5 other countries for inclusion into the Tokyo games.
Great honors for all of them, and great experience for them to bring back in advance of this season.
I remember an MSU site posted side by side articles, written by the same local reporter in 2004 and 2005(?), in 2004 saying how great it was that Paul Davis and Mo Ager were selected to Team USA, and they'd bring such great experience and teaching back with them. Then after that MSU team disappointed, both declined their offers the next year, and the same reporter had a story about how they spent the previous summer in Europe, away from their teammates, and that by choosing to spend the summer in East Lansing, they were totally bought into MSU this year.
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I remember an MSU site posted side by side articles, written by the same local reporter in 2004 and 2005(?), in 2004 saying how great it was that Paul Davis and Mo Ager were selected to Team USA, and they'd bring such great experience and teaching back with them. Then after that MSU team disappointed, both declined their offers the next year, and the same reporter had a story about how they spent the previous summer in Europe, away from their teammates, and that by choosing to spend the summer in East Lansing, they were totally bought into MSU this year.
I get that. In this case obviously Ivey and Edey are already Boilers, and Furst had a signed LOI and is in the summer before FR year, not the summer before his HS SR year.
For someone who is only a verbal commits, doing it prior to their HS SR year you worry the added high profile and connections with other recruits might cause issues. One being offers from blue bloods, the other being your case where a disappointing season knocks the shine off their offer and commit and now they've got better options to boot.
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UW's Johnny Davis also made the team. Good to see.
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Nebraska and Colorado will square off in men’s basketball in a charity exhibition game Oct. 31 in Lincoln.
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Nebraska and Colorado will square off in men’s basketball in a charity exhibition game Oct. 31 in Lincoln.
Wrong sport
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Duane Washington staying in the NBA draft. Definitely alters the landscape for the Bucks a bit. Expect a lot of minutes for true frosh Malaki Branham.
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Wow, didn't expect that
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Each B1G team plays seven of the other B1G teams H&A, three home only, and three away only. Here are the six league games for each B1G team 2021-22 games NOT to be played:
Illinois:
- @ tOSU
- @ PSU
- @ UW
- vs IU
- vs MN
- vs UNL
Indiana:
- @ IL
- @ M
- @ RU
- vs IA
- vs MSU
- vs NU
Iowa:
- @ IU
- @ MSU
- @ NU
- vs tOSU
- vs RU
- vs UW
Maryland:
- @ MN
- @ PSU
- @ UW
- vs M
- vs UNL
- vs PU
Michigan:
- @ UMD
- @ MN
- @ NU
- vs IU
- vs PSU
- vs UW
Michigan State:
- @ IU
- @ UNL
- @ PU
- vs IA
- vs tOSU
- vs RU
Minnesota:
- @ IL
- @ PU
- @ RU
- vs UMD
- vs M
- vs UNL
Nebraska:
- @ IL
- @ UMD
- @ MN
- vs MSU
- vs PSU
- vs PU
Northwestern:
- @ IU
- @ RU
- @ UW
- vs IA
- vs M
- vs tOSU
Ohio State:
- @ IA
- @ MSU
- @ NU
- vs IL
- vs PU
- vs RU
Penn State:
- @ M
- @ UNL
- @ PU
- vs IL
- vs UMD
- vs UW
Purdue:
- @ UMD
- @ UNL
- @ tOSU
- vs MSU
- vs MN
- vs PSU
Rutgers:
- @ IA
- @ MSU
- @ tOSU
- vs IU
- vs MN
- vs NU
Wisconsin:
- @ IA
- @ M
- @ PSU
- vs IL
- vs UMD
- vs NU
Games in bold are games that I think should be played every year. It makes no sense whatsoever to me to skip in-state and border-state contests. Those games should have the highest demand for tickets because they are generally close enough that students, alumni, and fans of the road team will help bulk-up demand.
My other scheduling proposal is this:
Wherever possible, why not schedule those early season league games to match up with football games? Ie, if Ohio State and Michigan need to be scheduled to play each other early, why not have it at Crisler the night before the football game at the Big House? That way any travelling fans (of both teams) could have the opportunity to take in both games in one trip.
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Marcus Carr withdraws from the draft. But still may transfer from Minnesota. OSU has an open scholarship...
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Marcus Carr withdraws from the draft. But still may transfer from Minnesota. OSU has an open scholarship...
MSU has 2
But it looks like Kentucky
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Kofi Cockburn transferring out of Illinois?
What is going on there?
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Kofi Cockburn transferring out of Illinois?
What is going on there?
Really?
Dude's a beast. One of the only teams that as a team of talented bigs I hated to face, because Cockburn had the size to handle Trevion Williams and the height to handle Zach Edey...
Can't even understand why. He was the starter in Sharpie, I'm not aware of any coaching turnover there...
What happened?
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So Ayo is gone; Cockburn and Miller both transferred out
Not sure what they are going to have
-
Maybe Underwood is a meanie like Greg Gard.
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Cockburn is still a fringe prospect, not sure another year at Illinois helps that situation.
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Kofi Cockburn transferring out of Illinois?
What is going on there?
Two of the assistants went to Kentucky.
Also, maybe Brad has some ups and downs in how he rolls.
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So.. Kofi is going to Kentucky then.
Is he even eligible? He has sold a ton of gear lately, which is an NCAA violation.
Kofi... (247sports.com) (https://247sports.com/college/illinois/board/102417/Contents/kofi-167284753/)
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From the Milwaukee paper:
According to sources close to the program, Tucker did not assist in trying to unify the locker room during a season that had players more isolated than normal because of COVID-19 restrictions. Rather, there were signs he was a disruptive force that created tension.
Tucker, who was known to be very close with players on the team, was seen as undermining Gard’s authority.
The influx of new faces on the roster, a normal summer session and the absence of COVID-19 restrictions should offer Gard and the assistants a fresh start next season. They should be able to build a team that is cohesive.
It is also telling that several underclassmen – including Jonathan Davis, Ben Carlson and Steven Crowl – all opted to return.
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Iowa's Joe Wieskamp is staying in the NBA Draft, as expected. He had already finished his degree and was unlikely to improve his stock by coming back.
-
E.J. Liddell officially back
-
I think Liddell is probably the more valuable player to the Buckeyes. If you could only get one back, better for him to return. I'll miss the thrills of Washington, but won't miss the bad shots and turnovers. Also it may be just variance, but he was never able to hit a game winning or tying shot that I can remember. It'll be interesting to see how the young guys in the back court do this year.
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The full Husker nonconference schedule can be seen below. All games except N.C. State and Auburn will be at Pinnacle Bank Arena in Lincoln.
Wed. 10/27: Peru State (exhib.)
Sun. 10/31: Colorado (charity exhib.)
Tue. 11/9: Western Illinois
Fri. 11/12 Sam Houston State
Tue. 11/16: Creighton
Fri. 11/19: Idaho State
Sun. 11/21: Southern
Tue. 11/23: Tennessee State
Sat. 11/27: South Dakota
Wed. 12/1: @North Carolina State
Sat. 12/11: Auburn (at Atlanta, Ga.)
Sun. 12/19: Kansas State
Wed. 12/22: Kennesaw State
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Zach Edey laying waste to everyone on Team Canada at the FIBA U-19. Three games, three double-doubles.
On the US side both Jaden Ivey and Caleb Furst are doing well. Ivey is shining; Furst is merely solid.
Sadly because the Canadian senior men's team failed to qualify for Tokyo, Edey won't be able to participate in the Olympics. I think he had been named as one of two alternates, which is why he played in the FIBA U-19 rather than the Olympic qualifying tourney.
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Nebraska basketball didn’t waste any time filling Dalano Banton’s spot on its roster, picking up a commitment on Thursday morning from Arizona State transfer Alonzo Verge Jr., per a source.
The 6-foot-2 shooting guard finished third on the Sun Devils in scoring last season, averaging 14.0 points, 3.9 points and 3.8 assists per game for the Sun Devils. Verge Jr., came off the bench in his first season with the Sun Devils before moving into the starting lineup last season, starting 21 games for the Sun Devils. The guard shot 33 percent from the 3-point line and 80.9 percent from the free throw line last season. He will have one season of eligibility with the Huskers.
Verge Jr., had his best games last year at the end of the season for the Sun Devils. He scored 26 points in a win over Washington State at the Pac-12 Tournament, then followed that up with a 28-point, eight-rebound effort in a loss to Oregon.
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Rostering still going on. OSU adds transfer Cedric Russell out from Louisiana. He's a 6'2'' shooting guard who is known for a pure stroke - a pretty obvious replacement for Duane Washington. Not much of a defender, but did average 17 points a game last year and hit 40% from 3.
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Kofi is...just returning to Illinois. Back in the contender mix they go. Curbelo and Cockburn is a heck of a duo to play around.
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Kofi is...just returning to Illinois. Back in the contender mix they go. Curbelo and Cockburn is a heck of a duo to play around.
LOL, he announces he's in the portal. Then announces a final 3 of Kentucky, Florida State and...Illinois. Then announces for Illinois with a post stating "KING IS BACK"
I'm all for player empowerment, but jesus
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LOL, he announces he's in the portal. Then announces a final 3 of Kentucky, Florida State and...Illinois. Then announces for Illinois with a post stating "KING IS BACK"
I'm all for player empowerment, but jesus
I'm definitely pro-paying players because it felt like organized theft from them. But getting that right - change the rules to give schools certainty.
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I'm definitely pro-paying players because it felt like organized theft from them. But getting that right - change the rules to give schools certainty.
I've all along said that in order to give them every freedom in the world, except the ability to get paid, they destroyed the format that made college sports interesting.
In a group text re: the Olympic basketball team, I was saying that if the best NBA players weren't playing, and we were getting JaVale McGee and Keldon Johnson, I'd rather just go back to college players, and then tried to create a college roster, and couldn't do it. I couldn't name a feasible roster simply because I don't care that much anymore about following a sport where you build your roster off transfers and freshmen. Gonzaga and Baylor were CLEARLY the two best teams in the country last year, and right now, off the top of my head, I could name two players off those teams COMBINED.
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MSU agreed to move their neutral court game to Durham last year, in exchange for a home game this year. Shocker, the rat is bailing
https://twitter.com/BrendanRMarks/status/1417553452583034885?s=19
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The Men of Mackey (Purdue obv) face the Ballinteers (Tennessee) in TBT tonight at 7 ET.
Quite a few names you'd know going to make it for the MoM. Isaac Haas and AJ Hammons should be able to hold down the paint, and of course there's Robbie Hummel at the 4, bringing a wealth of NBA experience, and Evan Boudreaux. Lewis Jackson playing point guard. Kelsey Barlow is back. Jon Octeus, who played one season as a GT for Purdue and forever posterized Collin Hartman of IU apparently is unavailable tonight, but may be able to join the team if Purdue advances. Jacquil Taylor will miss TBT as his minor league TBL team is in the championships, but as he plays the 5 his absence may not be meaningful now that Purdue has Hammons and Haas.
Filling out the team are a number of players I don't know, mostly having attended other teams around the state of IN.
Should be fun.
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So . . .
Where does Kansas fit in?
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The Men of Mackey (Purdue obv) face the Ballinteers (Tennessee) in TBT tonight at 7 ET.
Quite a few names you'd know going to make it for the MoM. Isaac Haas and AJ Hammons should be able to hold down the paint, and of course there's Robbie Hummel at the 4, bringing a wealth of NBA experience, and Evan Boudreaux. Lewis Jackson playing point guard. Kelsey Barlow is back. Jon Octeus, who played one season as a GT for Purdue and forever posterized Collin Hartman of IU apparently is unavailable tonight, but may be able to join the team if Purdue advances. Jacquil Taylor will miss TBT as his minor league TBL team is in the championships, but as he plays the 5 his absence may not be meaningful now that Purdue has Hammons and Haas.
Filling out the team are a number of players I don't know, mostly having attended other teams around the state of IN.
Should be fun.
Carmen's Crew get by the Men of Mackey. BTW, couldn't the BTN get some #content by staging this kind of thing?
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So . . .
Where does Kansas fit in?
On probation
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I can't believe I'm watching basketball (TBT)
-
Bu seriously, couldn't the BTN field this kind of thing? An annual B1G tourney of ex players divided by team. Hell, they could do football, too.
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And it's time to go to the Elam ending. Wouldn't it be awesome to put that in B1G games?
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And it's time to go to the Elam ending. Wouldn't it be awesome to put that in B1G games?
It's overdue
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Last year of Crossroads Classic. All risk little reward apparently. Weak sauce.
Seems like none of the four schools really care about it.
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Bu seriously, couldn't the BTN field this kind of thing? An annual B1G tourney of ex players divided by team. Hell, they could do football, too.
They absolutely should, to fill summer programming.
Football? Do 7 on 7s. You could do that by just being in shape, without being in football shape.
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Last year of Crossroads Classic. All risk little reward apparently. Weak sauce.
Seems like none of the four schools really care about it.
It seems like schools don't care much about things that fans do. That was one of those events I always looked forward to.
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Maui...
UW vs. aTm in the opener for each school.
Chaminade (of course), and Houston, Butler, Notre Dame, Oregon and St. Mary are the others.
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They absolutely should, to fill summer programming.
Football? Do 7 on 7s. You could do that by just being in shape, without being in football shape.
Hell Fox already televises the Spring League, which players have to pay to participate in and is solely a way to get guys on tape for the NFL. The BTN could totally do that (and maybe help recruiting).
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It seems like schools don't care much about things that fans do. That was one of those events I always looked forward to.
I never cared all that much about it. It was better when Butler was meaningful, but Notre Dame only halfway cares about basketball.
It seemed like a gift to Indianapolis-based fans more than a real benefit to the schools.
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I never cared all that much about it. It was better when Butler was meaningful, but Notre Dame only halfway cares about basketball.
It seemed like a gift to Indianapolis-based fans more than a real benefit to the schools.
When you have 2 major conference in state schools, that aren't in your conference, figuring out a way to make it happen is great for fans. OSU should be playing Cincinnati and Xavier every year; PSU should be playing Pitt and Villanova; Wisconsin should be playing Marquette
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E7PAna8XIAALtJf?format=jpg&name=large)
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E7PAna8XIAALtJf?format=jpg&name=large)
Crysler arena over Breslin? No way.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E7PAna8XIAALtJf?format=jpg&name=large)
Umm, no. Notre Dame is pretty much 4th-best in Indiana behind Mackey, Assembly Hall, and Hinkle.
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THAT is your sole objection?
:57:
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Ok... A guy who only coached there for two years, had <.500 conference records both years, but did well enough to make it to the NIT one year and the NCAAT the second.
Sorry, not a long enough or impressive enough sample size to say he "revived" the program.
Maybe he brought in some recruits that Bennett then was able to help flourish, but 2 years is too short to say he was the one who revive it.
I said that Pat Richter revived the program, like he did with football. High praise to Donna Shalala too.
That NCAA appearance was the program's first since 1947.
Stan Van Gundy replaced Jackson, and went 13-14. He was fired after one season, and Bennet was in.
CHICAGO TRIBUNE
Just about this time last year, there was an exciting buzz around Madison, Wis.
First-year basketball coach Stu Jackson had pulled off a coup, signing King`s highly touted 7-footer Rashard Griffith. Griffith, Illinois' Mr. Basketball of 1993, easily became the best recruit in Badgers history.
Jackson also inked two other top-of-the-line recruits in 6-6 forward Jalil Roberts of Jersey City and 6-0 guard Darnell Hoskins of Dayton.
The Wisconsin turnaround was on. People felt it in Madison, and it was the talk of the Big 10. Jackson managed to put together a recruiting class that finished in the Top 10 in the national recruiting derby.
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Jackson jump started it.
He probably was not doing it on the level, but he got the ball rolling.
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THAT is your sole objection?
:57:
Well when you get something THAT wrong, I don't need to look at anything else...
If you tell me the sky is green, I'm not asking for your stock market picks.
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Jackson jump started it.
He probably was not doing it on the level, but he got the ball rolling.
Rashard was driving around in a new Ford at the time. It was an SUV-type.
But, his family did have money, and his mom wanted Purdue.
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Crysler arena over Breslin? No way.
Well, does that mean nicest? Crisler has had a lot of renovations recently, so it might be nicer
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I've seen games at both.
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I'd put ND Joyce Center even behind ISU Hulman Center. 5th in my own personal visit rankings. That's a pretty big whiff.
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Just... wow.
Alando Tucker tried to undermine Greg Gard and take over as UW coach (jsonline.com) (https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/uw/2021/08/02/alando-tucker-tried-undermine-greg-gard-and-take-over-uw-coach-wisconsin-badgers/5456411001/)
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Can't view the article, but I believe this was rumored a month or so back. I'm assuming there is more proof now. Crazy to think one of my favorite CBB players in recent Big Ten history would do that.
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He's dead to me.
Some of the article is below.
*********************************
...
Yet interviews with more than a half-dozen sources close to the UW athletic department and/or Tucker reveal he was not retained because he engaged in a coordinated plan to undermine Gard and get himself installed as coach.
Those sources spoke under the condition that they would not be named by the Journal Sentinel.
“It was a plot,” a source familiar with both the program and Tucker said.
According to several sources familiar with the program, Tucker went so far as to tell then-athletic director Barry Alvarez he was prepared to replace Gard and lead the team when the Badgers were struggling in late January during the 2019-20 season.
Alvarez made it clear he did not plan to make such a change; UW won its final eight regular-season games to secure a share of the Big Ten title; and UW officials attributed Tucker’s bold suggestion to inexperience and youth.
They eventually concluded Tucker wanted to advance his own career at the expense of Gard and the program, and the overwhelming feelings of those in the department included disbelief, pain and betrayal.
“Unbelievable,” said a source who is close to Tucker and the athletic department. “Speechless. Mind-blowing. All of those.”
...
Sources told the Journal Sentinel after the conclusion of the 2020-21 season that rather than work to unify the locker room during a trying season exacerbated by COVID-19 protocols, Tucker instead caused tension. He did so by using his close relationship with the players to coalesce support and power around him.
For example, a team source noted Tucker would tell one player to ignore the coaching points of a fellow assistant in charge of that player’s position group.
“I feel sad for the seniors,” a source said. “That is what I feel sad about because the players are the ones that are affected the most.”
...
Tucker remained on the search committee and, according to multiple sources, lobbied for UW to hire Northern Illinois athletic director Sean Frazier.
Frazier was hired at UW in 2007, served as Alvarez’s deputy athletic director from 2011-13 and knows Tucker.
Sources told the Journal Sentinel that Tucker hoped that if Frazier was hired as UW’s athletic director, he would remove Gard.
“He truly believed Frazier would fire Greg and hire him,” one source said.
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Duncan Robinson just signed a 90 million dollar contract in the NBA. What a heck of a journey for that guy.
-
Is there a term for a team/coach that routinely "beefs it" in the opening round of a tournament?
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-Z0Il-VkAEbxTu?format=jpg&name=large)
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KenPom out for the new season
2. Michigan
5. Illinois
6. Purdue
8. Ohio State
18. Maryland
22. MSU
23. Iowa
31. Indiana
44. Wisconsin
48. Northwestern
67. Rutgers
70. PSU
81. Nebraska
120. Minnesota
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https://twitter.com/MattNorlander/status/1450938299485462533?t=lh7KAsBp7VSh-nIU0RbbVg&s=19
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He's back...
https://bigten.org/news/2021/10/21/mens-basketball-dr-ed-hightower-named-big-ten-conference-special-advisor-for-basketball-officiating.aspx
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A fan favorite.
-
Why on God's green earth would the B1G wonks do this to us? Do they hate fans, coaches and players?
-
The fantasy NCAA Hoops dynasty league I help run had 3 owners not show up this year if anyone is interested.
The Draft has already started
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FDC9OhaUYAEqOlw?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FDC9OhaUYAEqOlw?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
Celtics should take a flier on that Colorado kid
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Kofi Cockburn suspended 3 games by NCAA for selling gear a month before it was legal to sell gear. Mark Few suspended an exhibition game for DUI. Also of note, Kofi already allegedly donated the money he made from the initial sale to a charity.
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Kofi Cockburn suspended 3 games by NCAA for selling gear a month before it was legal to sell gear. Mark Few suspended an exhibition game for DUI. Also of note, Kofi already allegedly donated the money he made from the initial sale to a charity.
NCAA undefeated for stupidity
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I was apparently wrong about Few...I guess it is 2 exhibitions and 1 regular season game. Just to correct myself.
-
That sucks for Kofi, but it's not like he needs the PT for development against the Little Sisters of the Poor at this point. As long as Illinois can get by KenPom #87 @Marquette without him, it won't be meaningful.
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https://twitter.com/OhioStateHoops/status/1455307155284709382?s=20
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https://twitter.com/OhioStateHoops/status/1455307155284709382?s=20
Meechie starting at off guard is interesting. But Sueing and Young are held out for injury
-
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FDJk5KtVEAMDpbQ?format=jpg&name=900x900)
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Jason Whitens, who left WMU to walk-on at MSU, tore his ACL in their exhibition game, and is done for the season.
Obviously not a key piece, but he was going to get some sporadic minutes as a 2 year starter at a MAC school. Not too shabby for a walkon
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Opening tips tomorrow
- Akron at OSU, 6 pm, ESPN2
- EMU at Indiana, 6 pm, BTN
- Kansas at MSU, 7 pm, ESPN
- Bellarmine at Purdue, 7 pm
- Quinnipiac at Maryland, 7 pm
- Jackson State at Illinois, 8 pm, BTN
- St. Francis at Wisconsin, 8 pm
- Eastern Illinois at Northwestern, 8 pm
- Western Illinois at Nebraska, 8 pm
- Kansas City at Minnesota, 8 pm
- Longwood at Iowa, 10 pm, BTN
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Opening tips tomorrow
- Kansas at MSU, 7 pm, ESPN
Neutral site. MSG
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Neutral site. MSG
Well they have to kinda fly over Michigan
-
Wish they still opened with the 24 hours of college hoops.
-
Purdue is about to play Bellarmine, a team heading into their second year of Div I basketball.
And it appears they basically run the "option" of basketball.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2T4bJh165g
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ESPN2 broadcast is periods of static interrupted by a few plays of basketball
-
Purdue is about to play Bellarmine, a team heading into their second year of Div I basketball.
And it appears they basically run the "option" of basketball.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2T4bJh165g
They play something other than Lacrosse?
Far out.
-
Charging should be taken out of the game. It is a relic of an era when coaches didn't teach it. Call offensive fouls when advantage is gained, but charging is a bailout to a guy who doesn't feel like playing defense 90% of the time
-
https://twitter.com/Jon_Star/status/1458244239721213952?t=02ljcjdw3ArcpeozLzL4hg&s=19
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MSU more or less played with the #3 team in the country on a neutral court.
Michigan, Purdue, and Illinois, in that order, I think are the clear top three teams in the conference. But I feel okay about Michigan State being able to compete in that next group.
I would not pick them to finish 4th, but I think they could
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FDy2hvkVEAMUh0C?format=jpg&name=900x900)
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Nice of Fred to take some of the heat off Scott Frost on opening night
-
UW kicked some tail last night. VERY young team.
-
Nice of Fred to take some of the heat off Scott Frost on opening night
Fred looking to have his contract restructured
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MSU won by 50 tonight, But they called nine fouls in the first 5 minutes of the game. I think this deep into the freedom of movement era, it's clear that teams are not adjusting to how they defend, they are just creating a brand of basketball that is utterly unwatchable unless you love watching free throws
-
Also, this is probably a hot take, but I think we've reached the point where basketball would be better without the three-point shot again
-
we never got to the point where a 3 point line was a good idea, but here we are...
-
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FERxRdRVkAIK4a6?format=jpg&name=small)
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I thought Michigan-Purdue were 1-2, but Illinois and OSU might be close. Early returns suggest that is not the case.
-
PSU lost by 25 to a UMass team (which is bad enough on its own) whose best player transferred to Texas?
Could be a long winter there
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PSU lost by 25 to a UMass team (which is bad enough on its own) whose best player transferred to Texas?
Could be a long winter there
And Wisconsin down 10 at home to Providence?
Big Ten not looking up to their standard of the past couple seasons at all.
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OSU looked good last night, but got some rough news that Justice Sueing is out indefinitely. I thought he would be their second best player this year.
-
https://twitter.com/BFQuinn/status/1460462630032875521?t=bESv-A7SlqBkXuFx-ltRRg&s=19
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Purdue up against their hardest opponent of the year, so far. Tripling them up 51-17 at half.
They should institute a CBB mercy rule. I'd hate to see my Boilers brought up on charges at The Hague for this atrocity...
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https://twitter.com/BFQuinn/status/1460462630032875521?t=bESv-A7SlqBkXuFx-ltRRg&s=19
Ballhandler dodges the offensive foul on the push off
:)
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Purdue up against their hardest opponent of the year, so far. Tripling them up 51-17 at half.
They should institute a CBB mercy rule. I'd hate to see my Boilers brought up on charges at The Hague for this atrocity...
The true mercy is flipping off the TV when you’re watching 10 walk-ons
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The true mercy is flipping off the TV when you’re watching 10 walk-ons
The walk-ons nearly cracked 100...
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Big Ten continuing to underwhelm last night
-
just can't be excited about Husker hoops until they can beat the Bluejays
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That was as unenjoyable a 21 point road win over a big six conference team as is humanly possible. Got to love a game that goes nearly 2 and 1/2 hours, where the last half hour is just free throws
-
Seeing more teams start to intentionally foul earlier in the game, with larger deficits. My guess is as 3-point shooting becomes more prevalent and efficient, teams are more willing to give up two-point possessions, if the possession is short, early in the game, with the hope of it being less.
I wonder if they need to add a super bonus. Three shots to make two or something. So that the intentional foul is a nearly guaranteed three points. Or just add a guaranteed free throw for every three fouls beyond 10
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As an admitted cliff's notes hoops fan, the above really underscores my continued separation from basketball as an interested observer. It's exhausting. I'd love to see some radical rule changes. I really want to see that 3pt line at nba length.
I've long wanted to see 2nd half under 5min back court fouls result in 2 shots and the ball for instance. Foul away from the ball anywhere, 2 plus the ball.
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And Wisconsin down 10 at home to Providence?
Big Ten not looking up to their standard of the past couple seasons at all.
I don’t know if this UW team will be particularly good, but that game was a little odd. Best player was out. Veteran reserve guard was also out. Meant the back court was Brad and a couple of freshmen.
Then Providence‘s extremely large center got both Wisconsin‘s center and back up center in foul trouble. And The next guy up as a four-star soph who seems to be struggling mightily in the first couple games. But they fight and clawed and made it a close game before losing. Maybe it’s a good sign. Maybe it’s a sign this team is going to be horrendous from three (and Providence is quite good at shooting). We shall see.
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Purdue is about to play Bellarmine, a team heading into their second year of Div I basketball.
And it appears they basically run the "option" of basketball.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2T4bJh165g
Already played #7 Purdue, and perennial tourney Saint Mary's. They play #1 Gonzaga on Friday, #2 UCLA on Monday, and West Virginia the following week.
Certainly not ducking anyone
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OSU is getting smoked by Xavier.
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Big Ten is going to be a lot dicier in the middle tier. NET rating has to be getting crushed
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I thought the Buckeyes looked ok. Still figuring out their rotation while their 3rd best player is out for awhile. I think they could be pretty good around January or February, but this isn't a great year to have a tough OOC schedule.
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I thought the Buckeyes looked ok. Still figuring out their rotation while their 3rd best player is out for awhile. I think they could be pretty good around January or February, but this isn't a great year to have a tough OOC schedule.
If this was their off night, I'd agree. The problem is they could (should?) have lost to Akron and Niagara already
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Sueing is a rough injury, because they are missing both their versatile wings. A lot of freshmen in the back court, which leads to a lot of ups and downs. Certainly some potential with Meechie and Branham though.
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Not a matter of off night. More like they are still figuring out how to play together. I thought they looked a lot better against Xavier than they did the first game against Akron. Probably shouldn't have been ranked in the top 25 as this team will take some time to gel, but I do like the individual players on the team.
Some of the positives:
Wheeler is starting to find his role in the offense as a guy who can stretch the defense with 3's.
Meechie is able to drive and shoot, but still looks a bit out of control at times
Branham can definitely get to the basket, but missed a lot of easy ones last night.
Kyle Young looks healthy enough to be a contributing factor
Liddell is Liddell. Best player on the team by far, but basically at the ceiling now of what he is going to be.
Some negatives:
Too many turnovers. Again I hope this is just them figuring out how to play together.
Defense wasn't really great. This may be an ongoing problem. They kind of just got lucky that Xavier went cold for awhile.
Rebounding was atrocious. I'm hoping this is fixable.
The team looks way too reliant on Liddell for everything. Hopefully others will step up more as the year goes on.
Zed Key looks a little confused on how to handle his increased role. Hopefully he will grow into it after sporadic minutes and a clearly defined lesser role last year.
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If this was their off night, I'd agree. The problem is they could (should?) have lost to Akron and Niagara already
Yeah, I'm the @TyphonInc (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=8) of tOSU BB. I look at this group and just see doom and gloom. The team that struggled with Akron and Niagara then trailed wire-to-wire in a loss to a Xavier team that I frankly don't think is very good (they also struggled with Niagara and didn't beat Kent all that impressively). They are ranked for now but enjoy it because this doesn't even look like a tournament team to me let alone a top-25 team.
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Purdue up 41-35 at the half on UNC.
Had to play the last several minutes small-ball with both Tre and Edey on the bench with two fouls each.
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Boilers win!
They controlled the game until the middle of the second half, as UNC was just chipping and chipping away, eventually taking a 1 point lead.
Purdue responded with a 10-0 run and I thought it was blown back open, but UNC responded with their own 7-0 run...
But then Purdue went 7-0 and it was out of reach the test of the way.
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Glad we got the Nova-Purdue matchup we wanted. Tennessee will be good in March, but they are young, and UNC has looked like trash this year. Purdue and Villanova are both top 5 teams, so this should be fun tomorrow.
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It only took 4 years, but maybe taking Marcus Bingham over Trevion Williams finally paying off?
The 3 point shooting remains very problematic.
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Fabulous first half between Purdue and Nova, which is great because I don't have to have the Lions and Browns inflicted on me
-
Nova 33, Purdue 31 at the half.
Both teams rising to the challenge today. Great fight so far. Hope the Boilers can pull this one out.
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Heck of a game and win for Purdue
-
Back and forth the whole way. Boiler up!
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Back and forth the whole way. Boiler up!
Hammer down!
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Figured it would be Michigan and Purdue leading the pack, but Purdue is the only team out of that top group (UM, Illinois, OSU) who has looked the part thus far.
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I didn't see the Arizona-Michigan game, but woof, Arizona went 4/21 from 3 and Michigan went 1/14. That's a real brick fest.
-
I believe Michigan was really bad against Seton Hall too from three. Definitely something to monitor
-
OSU going to miss Eugene Brown tonight due to concussion. Gee whiz, the wing position went from good to non-existent.
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I like Brown's potential, but he hasn't really been much of a contributor so far this year. Tonight should be a good measuring stick game. I'm cautiously optimistic.
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Wisconsin fell behind by 16 and won comfortably. A&M might be pretty meh, but UW's fight is certianly there.
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Wisconsin fell behind by 16 and won comfortably. A&M might be pretty meh, but UW's fight is certianly there.
Great adjustments from the coaching staff. Early on, Wisconsin was not closing out at all on shooters, And they seem to have no idea how to handle double teams in the post. They figured both things out
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Buckeyes looking much better with a 38-28 first half lead against Seton Hall. They definitely have some pieces, and maybe getting closer to figuring out how to play together.
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Purdue up to #3 in the AP poll with one first place vote.
Trevion Williams wins B1G player of the week.
Caleb Furst wins B1G freshman of the week.
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The progression of three-point shooting, has led to end of game offense being iso pull up after iso pullup
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Meechie! Heck of a fun game and OSU pulls out a victory against Seton Hall. Jimmy Sotos played a lot of minutes, which was a change from usual.
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Meechie! Heck of a fun game and OSU pulls out a victory against Seton Hall. Jimmy Sotos played a lot of minutes, which was a change from usual.
Yeah and I thought Sotos played well with the additional PT. That game was extremely intense. Both teams really wanted that one. That did not look like November basketball.
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Meanwhile Illinois getting stuffed in a locker by Cincinnati
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Meanwhile Illinois getting stuffed in a locker by Cincinnati
Illinois looked like they were going to run them out of the gym early. No answer for Cockburn, then it totally flipped
-
Yuck, Rutgers lost at home to 0-4 Lafayette as well.
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Composite Computer Rankings - 22 computers
- Gonzaga
- PURDUE
- Baylor
- UCLA
- Kansas
- Houston
- Arizona
- Villanova
- Duke
- Alabama
- Memphis
- MICHIGAN
- Seton Hall
- Texas
- ILLINOIS
- Tennessee
- USC
- Connecticut
- IOWA
- Kentucky
- LSU
- BYU
- St. Bonaventure
- Florida
- MICHIGAN STATE
- 28. Ohio State
- 30. Indiana
- 42. Wisconsin
- 51. Northwestern
- 52. Maryland
- 61. Minnesota
- 76. Rutgers
- 110. Penn State
- 117. Nebraska
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Heck of a nice win for the Badgers over Houston
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First time I've gotten to see Chet Holmgren on Gonzaga. He was heavily recruited by Purdue.
He looks like he's 7'0", 140#. I worry that guys like Kofi or Edey or Tre would eat him alive in the paint.
He has skills, but dude needs some cheeseburgers.
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Heck of a nice win for the Badgers over Houston
The blown lead was bad, but the ending was hilarious.
-
Auburn and UConn can feel free to play all the OTs
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Auburn and UConn can feel free to play all the OTs
That was a fun game. Big shots, bonehead plays, seemingly going on forever
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He's only got one move!
https://twitter.com/Connormuldowney/status/1463657267065151496?t=Rk4lxQm4AlbJojyS4VwkLA&s=19
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Badgers beat A&M, Houston, St Mary’s to win the Vegas edition of Maui.
Think this young as hell team might just be tournament bound when it’s all said and done.
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Purdue looks to be clearly the best early on, but the battle for 2nd looks wide open. Should be another fun year.
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Growing up, the three major tourneys were Maui, Great Alaskan Shootout and Preseason NIT. Alaska is gone. NIT is a lower tier 4 team tourney. I'm rooting for Maui, but this year's field has me questioning how much longer it can sustain.
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The refs in this tourney are brutal. Looking forward to Big Ten play to get away from the ticky tack fouls.
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The refs in this tourney are brutal. Looking forward to Big Ten play to get away from the ticky tack fouls.
Yeah this is some weird ass reffing. Florida mauling everyone on the perimeter, everything inside is a touch foul.
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Raftery is still great, but whoever is doing the PBP with him is awful
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The refs in this tourney are brutal. Looking forward to Big Ten play to get away from the ticky tack fouls.
Well, basketball has no conference affiliations for refs, like football does.
The MSU game was reffed at par, well done in the first half, and then both teams had 5 fouls at the first TV timeout in the second, to ensure fans got to watch plenty of FTs in the second half
-
Wow
-
Yerrsh
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Penny coaching Memphis, with Larry Brown and Rasheed Wallace as assistants is a fever dream
-
Badgers beat A&M, Houston, St Mary’s to win the Vegas edition of Maui.
Think this young as hell team might just be tournament bound when it’s all said and done.
Johnny Davis is really good and will only get better with time. But, they need him on the court to win. See Providence game.
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Purdue entered the week #3, behind the Zags and UCLA.
Purdue rolled over [hapless] Omaha, UCLA lost to Gonzaga, and Gonzaga lost too.
So with the two teams ahead of Purdue losing, I want everyone to say hello to your new #1 ranked basketball team in the NCAA...
Dook!
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It's a shame it's not Purdue-Duke in the Challenge. Really missed an opportunity there. Instead we get Purdue vs. unranked Florida State? Why?
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It's a shame it's not Purdue-Duke in the Challenge. Really missed an opportunity there. Instead we get Purdue vs. unranked Florida State? Why?
Yeah and also OSU v. Duke, which is set for a 9:30 tip. Nothing like staying up late to watch my team get drilled.
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Composite Computer Rankings (last week in parenthesis) - 20 computers
- Gonzaga (1)
- Duke (9)
- Baylor (3)
- PURDUE (2)
- Arizona (7)
- Houston (6)
- LSU (21)
- Alabama (10)
- UCLA (4)
- Villanova (8)
- Florida (24)
- USC (17)
- Texas (14)
- Connecticut (18)
- Kansas (5)
- BYU (22)
- Memphis (11)
- IOWA (19)
- WISCONSIN (-)
- Kentucky (20)
- MICHIGAN STATE (25)
- Auburn (-)
- Tennessee (16)
- Arkansas (-)
- MICHIGAN (12)
- 26. Indiana (30)
- 30. Ohio State (28)
- 42. Illinois (15)
- 52. Northwestern (51)
- 56. Minnesota (61)
- 62. Maryland (52)
- 85. Penn State (110)
- 123. Rutgers (76)
- 124. Nebraska (117)
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Pretty, pretty, pretty good start for Iowa and the Big Ten
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Pretty, pretty, pretty good start for Iowa and the Big Ten
Or not so much. 21 point lead against Virginia offense should be totally safe
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Phew
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Virginia is kind of surprisingly crappy
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Illinois fans chanting LSU at Notre Dame players attempting free throws.
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I think Illinois has my favorite basketball fans in the conference, while Purdue has my least favorite.
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Any prognosis on how the challenge works out this year?
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Any prognosis on how the challenge works out this year?
The ACC is very bad by their standards. After the Big Ten's poor showing in the Gavett Games, we need to do well here for the sake of the NET ratings of our bubble teams.
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FSU star PG is missing tonight's game to attend his brother's funeral. Sad for him [obviously], and obviously not good for the Noles.
Their starting center is out injured, and his backup is also out injured.
So they're down two starters and their depth in the paint is going to be very limited.
Not a good recipe for facing Purdue, at Mackey.
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Gophs steal one at the end
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Gophs steal one at the end
Indiana trying to as well.
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Indiana trying to as well.
I was not expecting these two teams to combine for 222 points
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A good way to upset Duke is to turn it over a lot and miss your FTs.
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Late tipoffs and sloppy play lead to a great motto for this Buckeye basketball team:
Go to bed angry.
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Somehow only down 53-47 now, despite going 3/12 from the line.
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Ok much better play in the 2nd half from the Buckeyes. 66-61 Duke with 3 mins left.
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Guess Vegas always knows
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I'm shocked the Buckeyes could play so badly in the first half and still pick up the huge upset. Cedric Russell is a revelation. He looks way more poised than Meechie or Malaki. He should start going forward.
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Guess Vegas always knows
Yeah the 3 point spread made no sense to me. I would've bet on Duke if I could.
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Scott Van Pelt pointed out the bad news of this upset. Purdue will probably be #1 in the next poll.
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Purdue with a 28 point beatdown of FSU.
Granted, FSU was shorthanded. It wasn't expected that with their limitations they could keep up. They're the sort of long athletic team that has given us fits in past years, so at full strength I was interested to see how Purdue would handle the test. But at far less than full strength, I didn't think it should be close.
I was happy to see Purdue leave no doubt.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FFfw-jnVcAMFoak?format=jpg&name=small)
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vmWN4b5tX0
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I completely fell asleep - how bout them Buckeyes. Also thankful for Youtube, where I can watch the game with no commercials this morning.
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I hope the Badgers can take one home tonight while I sleep.
Is GT any good this year?
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I hope the Badgers can take one home tonight while I sleep.
Is GT any good this year?
Not really - haven't played anyone and lost to Miami of Ohio. But not total garbage.
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Yeah the 3 point spread made no sense to me. I would've bet on Duke if I could.
I did
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Watching the replay - I thought Wendell Moore would just smoke them, given Justin Ahrens was often guarding him. He had a good game, but didn't completely smoke them. Otherwise, Banchero was ineffective and Duke couldn't guard Zed Key, which is not something I expected to type.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FFfw-jnVcAMFoak?format=jpg&name=small)
So yeah, ah, apparently we are a basketball school
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Looking good.
Up 6-2 and five of the six B1G teams playing tonight are favored.
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So yeah, ah, apparently we are a basketball school
I think that OSU is technically a Synchronized Swimming school. They've won like every NC but 8, and the team that won most of the others (Stanford) recently dropped the sport.
:party0036::party0036::party0036:
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I think that OSU is technically a Synchronized Swimming school. They've won like every NC but 8, and the team that won most of the others (Stanford) recently dropped the sport.
:party0036::party0036::party0036:
Didn't know that. My HS was pretty dominant in synchro, and one of the girls I graduated with went to Stanford for it
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Gophers won their first road game in over two years last night at Pittsburgh.
This team isn't going to be very good, but a road win is a road win is a road win.
-
For a year, it looked like Jeff Capel was a really good hire for Pitt. I don't see any way he returns next year now.
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Purdue entered the week #3, behind the Zags and UCLA.
Purdue rolled over [hapless] Omaha, UCLA lost to Gonzaga, and Gonzaga lost too.
So with the two teams ahead of Purdue losing, I want everyone to say hello to your new #1 ranked basketball team in the NCAA...
Dook!
You're welcome.
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I missed the game completely last night. My kids are sick so I was home with them all day then went to work once the wife got home.
I'm watching on YouTube now and it is weird watching the Buckeyes play this badly against #1 yet knowing that they'll pull it out in the end.
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Gophers won their first road game in over two years last night at Pittsburgh.
This team isn't going to be very good, but a road win is a road win is a road win.
not a great team but a solid one which puts them light years a head of Pitinos teams
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Just learned that if you change the start date from 11/1 to 11/2 on Torvik, you remove the preseason data. Bad for predictive purposes, but interesting to see how teams are actually playing thus far
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Just learned that if you change the start date from 11/1 to 11/2 on Torvik, you remove the preseason data. Bad for predictive purposes, but interesting to see how teams are actually playing thus far
All hail Arizona
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Just learned that if you change the start date from 11/1 to 11/2 on Torvik, you remove the preseason data. Bad for predictive purposes, but interesting to see how teams are actually playing thus far
I have a sense we consume the same podcast.
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MSU looks so much better without Hauser on the court
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MSU looks so much better without Hauser on the court
And I shutter to think the disaster that would have been Emoni Bates on this team. I feel bad for the kid. His dad ruined him
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"The first ever matchup between Nebraska and NC State has not disappointed" needs to be the tagline for every big 10 ACC challenge going forward
-
Triple overtime coming for Nebraska
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Triple overtime coming for Nebraska
NC State's entire team has fouled out
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Quadruple overtime on the way.
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I think having to watch 20 minutes (and counting) of extra basketball, angers Nebraska fans more than losing 9 one possession football games.
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Can this game go past the late games? Already second half for those
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I think having to watch 20 minutes (and counting) of extra basketball, angers Nebraska fans more than losing 9 one possession football games.
No.
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Michigan is an absolute train wreck right now. Honestly, grabbing the one and dones feels like a mistake. Duke won a title with them. Kentucky did it when they had a few return for their sophomore year. But Washington, LSU, Oklahoma, Georgia, it hasn't worked. Michigan is a cobbled together roster of one and dones, other freshmen, transfers, Eli Brooks and Hunter Dickinson
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Stayed up watching an entertaining Nebraska game. Now watching Michigan get stuffed in a trash can by North Carolina
-
Tonight was an absolute embarrassment for the Big Ten, aside from MSU.
Even if UW pulls this out, and we win 8-6, that's a disaster
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Stayed up watching an entertaining Nebraska game. Now watching Michigan get stuffed in a trash can by North Carolina
It's almost like the farther we get from the greatest coach in program history, and move more towards a roster entirely built by a star chasing coach with no previous experience, the less it works
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Looking good.
Up 6-2 and five of the six B1G teams playing tonight are favored.
Yikes, apparently I spoke too soon, what a disaster tonight has been. I concur with @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) :
Tonight was an absolute embarrassment for the Big Ten, aside from MSU.
Even if UW pulls this out, and we win 8-6, that's a disaster
Not to knock MSU but their win wasn't unexpected. Coming into tonight we had:
- MSU -4, won by 9: overperformed by 5
- UNL +7, lost by 4 in 4xOT: overperformed by 3
- UW -3, won by 4: overperformed by 1
- UMD -0.5, lost by 4: underperformed by 4.5
- PSU -3, lost by 5: underperformed by 8
- M -2.5, lost by 21: underperformed by 23.5
Michigan State was by far the bright spot but that is a pretty low bar. Michigan was a flat out embarrassment with Penn State not far behind. Maryland just annoys me. They were phenomenal in this thing when they were in the ACC and they've sucked as part of the B1G. They are now .500 at 11-11 in challenge games but that is made up of 10-5 as an ACC team and 1-6 as a B1G team. Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Michigan State performed approximately as expected but to come into tonight up 6-2 and slink out with an 8-6 win is just terrible.
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How was Wisconsin only favored by 3?
-
How was Wisconsin only favored by 3?
I don't know but that is what my phone says.
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https://twitter.com/ghansen711/status/1466233367687536641?t=9NjUTY-N4c-h86Y_MGTwIg&s=19
For context, that Oregon State team was ranked #2 in the nation.
Also, either he has a typo or bad math here, bc this is the second lowest
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https://twitter.com/ghansen711/status/1466233367687536641?t=9NjUTY-N4c-h86Y_MGTwIg&s=19
For context, that Oregon State team was ranked #2 in the nation.
Also, either he has a typo or bad math here, bc this is the second lowest
Perhaps Luther Muhammad chose poorly in wanting to showcase his offense
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Ouch. That's really bad.
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How was Wisconsin only favored by 3?
Road game. Wisconsin is like a top-30 team, Tech was in the low 60s.
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I think having to watch 20 minutes (and counting) of extra basketball, angers Nebraska fans more than losing 9 one possession football games.
I was at the bar eating wings and drinking beer, saw some highlights as the OTs kept coming
didn't even ask to change the channel to watch, knew the outcome
tough enough walking in there with my Husker cap on and settling the wagers on the Iowa football game
-
Mark Turgeon fired from Maryland. Danny Manning named interim coach.
-
Wow. Didn't see that one coming.
If he was on thinner ice with the AD than anyone knew, why not whack him before the season and hire a coach?
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Definitely didn't think Iowa would be the first defense to slow down Purdue
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Definitely didn't think Iowa would be the first defense to slow down Purdue
Purdue has had issues with the press in the past. Hopefully they learned their lesson. Need to practice it.
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You're welcome.
I didn't reply because I didn't want to jinx it.
But thank you.
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Hopefully UW can take down Marquette today. They will have their hands full with the MU front court kids.
-
Good effort from Iowa, but not quite enough. Unfortunately, this probably means Purdue will be #1 next week. They'll have some medium difficulty games coming up against Rutgers, NC State, and Butler, so there is some hope that they'll be knocked from their perch.
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Wisconsin runs Marquette.
Badgers still don't have much of a bench, but starters were good. Davis was spicy. Davison was a higher scoring version of himself. The freshman point had his best game thus far (he'll be quite good soon enough). Young center showed off his range and finally rolled down some shots.
A few moments for the No. 3 guard. We'll have to see if he can find some consistency.
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Good win for Big Red.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FF5BtfuXEAMjWrY?format=jpg&name=small)
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Composite Computer Rankings (last week in parenthesis) - 25 computers
- PURDUE (4)
- Baylor (3)
- Alabama (8)
- Arizona (5)
- Gonzaga (1)
- Duke (2)
- Kansas (15)
- Houston (6)
- LSU (7)
- USC (12)
- Villanova (10)
- Tennessee (23)
- Auburn (22)
- UCLA (9)
- MICHIGAN STATE (21)
- WISCONSIN (19)
- Texas (13)
- Connecticut (14)
- Florida (11)
- OHIO STATE (-)
- IOWA (18)
- Arkansas (24)
- Seton Hall (-)
- Xavier (-)
- Kentucky (20)
- 32. Illinois (42)
- 34. Indiana (26)
- 36. Michigan (25)
- 47. Minnesota (56)
- 61. Northwestern (52)
- 85. Maryland (62)
- 107. Penn State (85)
- 125. Rutgers (123)
- 136. Nebraska (124)
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According to Espn this is the first time that Purdue has ever been ranked #1 in the AP poll, and Maryland never has.
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/32804765/purdue-boilermakers-jump-no-1-ap-top-25-men-basketball-poll-1st
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Florida lost by 14 at home to Texas Southern as a 24 point favorite
-
Michigan having a get right game in Lincoln, up 21 in the first half
-
Michigan having a get right game in Lincoln, up 21 in the first half
I figured it was just a matter of time for them.
Some interesting measuring stick games tomorrow to see how good some of these teams are. Indiana - Wisconsin is particularly intriguing, but also is Minny good enough to defend the barn like they have in past years vs. a good looking Sparty team.
-
Florida lost by 14 at home to Texas Southern as a 24 point favorite
Is the Mike White era still going? I think yes?
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I figured it was just a matter of time for them.
Some interesting measuring stick games tomorrow to see how good some of these teams are. Indiana - Wisconsin is particularly intriguing, but also is Minny good enough to defend the barn like they have in past years vs. a good looking Sparty team.
I think they need to get the PG position figured out. They basically had 8 years of awesome program guys there between Walton and Simpson, and then bridged the gap with the Columbia transfer last year. Their transfer solution this year hasn't looked good. But they two one and dones they added were the best HS 3 point shooter and arguably the best HS interior defender. These aren't the well rounded NBA guys who can't really make an impact in one college year. It's the best shooting NBA prospect and best defensive NBA prospect in this years one and done class, that translates immediately. If they can cobble together some PG play, I think they are still the 1b to Purdue's 1a, which is is imply flipped from where I thought they were.
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Is the Mike White era still going? I think yes?
Yes, although I want Billy Donovan to come back and coach on his court, in one of the dumbest moves ever. Even better, if he fails in the NBA, I hope he coaches at a different SEC school, and has to coach against Florida on his court
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Not sure which news tonight is more evidence of how the mighty have fallen...
1.) Indiana getting outscored 44-17 to blow a 22 point lead in Kohl
2.) Illinois announcing they are retiring Ayo Dosunmo's number
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Not sure which news tonight is more evidence of how the mighty have fallen...
1.) Indiana getting outscored 44-17 to blow a 22 point lead in Kohl
2.) Illinois announcing they are retiring Ayo Dosunmo's number
Guessing #2.
Wisconsin winning in Kohl is not a shock to anyone. Wisconsin winning UGLY in Kohl is even less of a shock. They drag your ass down into the mud and 'rassle until you cry uncle. The only team that's seemed to be able to handle that is Purdue--because historically we've done the same damn thing at Mackey.
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Guessing #2.
Wisconsin winning in Kohl is not a shock to anyone. Wisconsin winning UGLY in Kohl is even less of a shock. They drag your ass down into the mud and 'rassle until you cry uncle. The only team that's seemed to be able to handle that is Purdue--because historically we've done the same damn thing at Mackey.
Blowing a 22-point lead, in a game where 64 was enough to win is special though.
But I agree, that might be a new low in jersey retirement
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Buckeyes in a fight with a game Towson team, down 30-26 late in the first half.
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Minnesota fans booing everything is smart. Make MSU think they are in Mackey, where they absolutely cannot win
-
Looks like Minny is coming back down to earth this game. No magic home court without Little Ricky.
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Blowing a 22-point lead, in a game where 64 was enough to win is special though.
But I agree, that might be a new low in jersey retirement
Body blows. Given enough of them, if you're soft, you fold late.
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Bingham is finally realizing his potential, but I'm a little worried about our other interior options. Minnesota has no size, but the Big Ten has plenty of bigs to run at us. Purdue has roughly five 7 footers
-
Upset alert: OSU and Towson are all locked up in the second half.
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Bingham is finally realizing his potential, but I'm a little worried about our other interior options. Minnesota has no size, but the Big Ten has plenty of bigs to run at us. Purdue has roughly five 7 footers
I realize it seems that way, but that's FSU.
Purdue only has one 7 footer. But he's SO far above 7 that he does pull the average up... I think he, Tre, and Furst average 7' even though he's the only one.
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Seems like this group plays hard for the new Minnesota coach, but they are the end result of the race to the bottom in terms of just jacking covered threes, and hoping they go in. That is 95% of their offense. Swing it around the perimeter, don't move at all, and eventually someone just shoots it
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Blowing a 22-point lead, in a game where 64 was enough to win is special though.
But I agree, that might be a new low in jersey retirement
Getting outscored by 22 in 31 possessions is what IU did and lord have mercy that is something.
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Remember Emoni Bates had his dad kick Jaden Akins off his HS team. Memphis is heading to the NIT because nobody on the team gives a crap, and Penny isn't an actual coach, Akins got a block on this breakaway
https://twitter.com/Tim_Goergen/status/1468784614487605248?t=Yu2uTQ8HEwAJcoejOxTRNw&s=19
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Buckeyes survived their minor scare with Towson. I don't think the Buckeyes were necessarily flat, but Towson was extremely pesky. Anytime the Buckeyes built a lead, Towson would hit a 3 or two. I'm curious if they just had a good night, or if they might be a tournament team in March as a dangerous 13-14 seed.
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Buckeyes survived their minor scare with Towson. I don't think the Buckeyes were necessarily flat, but Towson was extremely pesky. Anytime the Buckeyes built a lead, Towson would hit a 3 or two. I'm curious if they just had a good night, or if they might be a tournament team in March as a dangerous 13-14 seed.
Seemed like they were really sloppy at times, and they continue to not get a ton out of their guards. But Kyle Young has really developed into a a threatening scorer. He's shooting 85% on free throws, 69% on 2s, and 53%(!) from three. He's coming off the bench and providing a real lift.
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I would have preferred OSU to play flat on Saturday, but alas, not to be
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Not sure which news tonight is more evidence of how the mighty have fallen...
1.) Indiana getting outscored 44-17 to blow a 22 point lead in Kohl
2.) Illinois announcing they are retiring Ayo Dosunmo's number
Small correction
Ayo's number will not be retired. His jersey will hang from the rafters. Sort of a ring of honor type thing because he was an All American (I believe would be his qualification)
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Small correction
Ayo's number will not be retired. His jersey will hang from the rafters. Sort of a ring of honor type thing because he was an All American (I believe would be his qualification)
Ahh, that makes a lot more sense. Purdue does that for All-Americans honorees as well.
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I would have preferred OSU to play flat on Saturday, but alas, not to be
Should be a fun matchup. OSU has no one who can check Johnny Davis.
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Seems like this group plays hard for the new Minnesota coach, but they are the end result of the race to the bottom in terms of just jacking covered threes, and hoping they go in. That is 95% of their offense. Swing it around the perimeter, don't move at all, and eventually someone just shoots it
https://twitter.com/itsAntWright/status/1468995173988327431?t=2AIByY5ECwh2OEViwUqwqQ&s=19
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In less than 10 minutes, Trevion Williams put Rutgers' big in foul trouble, scored 12 points, and is generally unstoppable.
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Purdue down 5 with 3:30 left in the first half... Not looking crisp.
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Ethan Morton is probably the best Pittsburgh area HS player since DeJuan Blair, and he resisted every opportunity to go to some random prep school. He went to a rural school like 45 minutes north of Pittsburgh too, not a city school like Blair. Kind of bummed to see him waste away on the bench, but suddenly he's getting big minutes?
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Holy hell
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FFS.
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That was as good an ending as you see. Down goes Purdue
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Titus & Tate discussed elevating Purdue without having played a true road game, tongue in cheek. Maybe there is something to it?
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Of course there is something to it. Road games are hard - doesn't matter where. Any road win is precious.
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Auburn basketball’s Bruce Pearl won’t coach Saturday due to a two-game NCAA suspension, and former Nebraska assistant Wes Flanigan will take his place against the Huskers.
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Good first half between the Buckeyes and Badgers. Buckeyes are scorching the nets, shooting 58% from the field, but keeping the Badgers in it by turning it over 9 times. 34-29 Buckeyes at the half.
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Auburn basketball’s Bruce Pearl won’t coach Saturday due to a two-game NCAA suspension, and former Nebraska assistant Wes Flanigan will take his place against the Huskers.
Seems like they didn't miss him so far.
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Seems like they didn't miss him so far.
I'm not convinced he's much of an in game Xs and Os guy. He's more of a cheater recruiter
I've wondered what the effect of also including a one year sit out rule for coaches, that if you hire a head coach from another school he has to "sit out" a year. Can still recruit, game plan, go to practices, but couldn't be there, or communicate on game day. Would it (a) dissuade schools/coaches from going that route, and (b) how much would they be missed?
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I'm not convinced he's much of an in game Xs and Os guy. He's more of a cheater recruiter
I've wondered what the effect of also including a one year sit out rule for coaches, that if you hire a head coach from another school he has to "sit out" a year. Can still recruit, game plan, go to practices, but couldn't be there, or communicate on game day. Would it (a) dissuade schools/coaches from going that route, and (b) how much would they be missed?
I kinda disagree. His teams tend to play a particular identity, and they're often good at it. He won big at small schools. He's honestly not had many pros considering how he cheats on the trail.
Not saying his teams aren't talented, but he seems to wring things form sometimes uneven rosters through style and approach.
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I think he's definitely a system/scheme guy. I'm not sure about his in game coaching
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FGWS9W3VcAAIeE0?format=jpg&name=small)
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Buckeye defense makes a rare appearance in a basketball game. Badgers rough outside of Davis
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Buckeye defense makes a rare appearance in a basketball game. Badgers rough outside of Davis
Lesson learned for Wisconsin, going down double digits is not your comfort zone
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Auburn basketball’s Bruce Pearl won’t coach Saturday due to a two-game NCAA suspension, and former Nebraska assistant Wes Flanigan will take his place against the Huskers.
Wes Flanigan musta held a grudge
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Sparty cruising again. They're gonna be a pain this year.
I'm very excited about this Illinois-Arizona game. Let's see how good these teams are. I think Illinois may have figured things out and will get the win at home, but this could go either way.
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Sparty cruising again. They're gonna be a pain this year.
This was their best halfcourt offense against a real opponent all year, but they were missing good looks. Fortunately their transition game worked better than it has against Big Ten foes in years.
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Buckeye defense makes a rare appearance in a basketball game. Badgers rough outside of Davis
They were feisty, and UW obliged by rolling like 12 shots off the damn rim.
I don't totally know why Liddell is so good, but damn he is good. Ball movement is very good. When UW's defense got uncharacteristically lost, it seemed like an automatic open 3 or easy dunk.
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I think Washington going pro has allowed Liddell to blossom even more. He is the unquestioned guy on the team now, whereas last year he was 1A or 1B. I still don't think he'll ever be a player in the NBA, despite what the commentators tell me every game.
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Kofi pretty quiet on the scoring front with 6, but did get 8 boards. Meanwhile, the Illini were carried by Plummer and Frazier and lead 42-38 at the half.
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Illinois fading big time. Down 57-50 now midway thru the 2nd half.
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I'm curious what kinds of tiers people are thinking about at this point. To me:
Tier 1 based on performance: Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Tier 1 based on potential: Michigan, Illinois
Maybe that's too many in tier 1, but otherwise it's just Purdue at tier 1 and these other teams at 2.
Tier 2 I guess would include teams like Indiana, Northwestern, Rutgers, Minnesota and Iowa.
Then round out Tier 3 with Nebraska, Maryland, and Penn State.
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Torvik rankings
3. Purdue
14. Michigan State
16. Illinois
17. Michigan
20. Ohio State
21. Indiana
34. Wisconson
35. Iowa
48. Northwestern
70. Maryland
79. Minnesota
99. Penn State
108. Rutgers
159. Nebraska
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Man what a brutal turnover
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Illini get clipped. A game where they could have used Curbelo - they kept turning the ball over and seemed stuck sometimes trying to get into any offense that wasn't a three pointer.
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Man, the Gophs with a pretty convincing road win over a pretty lifeless Michigan team.
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So much for the Gophers finishing last in the Big Ten. They might be a tournament team. Should be ranked this week.
Absolutely incredible.
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Man, the Gophs with a pretty convincing road win over a pretty lifeless Michigan team.
Starting to think Juwan Howard is just Penny Hardaway, except he inherited some kids who had the benefit of Beilein as opposed to an empty cupboard
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Starting to think Juwan Howard is just Penny Hardaway, except he inherited some kids who had the benefit of Beilein as opposed to an empty cupboard
I don't understand why Houstan is playing so many minutes. They have other guys, and so far he hasn't given them much on either end of the court. Also Minny basically didn't guard their point guard unless he came into the lane.
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I don't understand why Houstan is playing so many minutes. They have other guys, and so far he hasn't given them much on either end of the court. Also Minny basically didn't guard their point guard unless he came into the lane.
Because he's a McDonald's AA, and you won't get the next disappointing class without selling them on unlimited playing time
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Because he's a McDonald's AA, and you won't get the next disappointing class without selling them on unlimited playing time
I mean I guess, but playing him so much to so little reward is just killing his draft stock. Better if he played much less and scouts could still imagine him being a great player.
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I don't understand why Houstan is playing so many minutes. They have other guys, and so far he hasn't given them much on either end of the court. Also Minny basically didn't guard their point guard unless he came into the lane.
I did not realize they were rolling out a tank-sized lineup.
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Starting to think Juwan Howard is just Penny Hardaway, except he inherited some kids who had the benefit of Beilein as opposed to an empty cupboard
The weird thing about Penny is you'd think he'd roll up all the talent, roll the ball out, fly up and down, score, be undisciplined and whatnot.
And yet, his last two teams have been hell on wheels on defense, just awful on offense. They just have some awful point guard problems. (And with his top assistant, he shouldn't even need to be in the damn gym and they should roll out some kind of coherent basketball product. It's just odd)
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Purdue came back from down 12 with 6 minutes left to beat NC State
Baylor's defense is absolutely shutting down Villanova, 45-27 with 5 minutes left. They are going to be #1 next week
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I'm curious what kinds of tiers people are thinking about at this point. To me:
Tier 1 based on performance: Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Tier 1 based on potential: Michigan, Illinois
Maybe that's too many in tier 1, but otherwise it's just Purdue at tier 1 and these other teams at 2.
Tier 2 I guess would include teams like Indiana, Northwestern, Rutgers, Minnesota and Iowa.
Then round out Tier 3 with Nebraska, Maryland, and Penn State.
We should get this set up soon but I haven't had time to make the schedule chart yet so I'm pretty far from having it ready to go. If anybody wants to take this over, I'll gladly share the spreadsheet from prior years which you can then use as a shell to add in this year's schedule and the results thus far to create the predictions.
On the subject of tiers, I think:
Tier 1:
- Purdue - I would have had them alone in their own tier but then they went on the road and lost at Rutgers so maybe they aren't quite as far ahead of the rest of the league as I once thought (or they are and that was just an off night).
- Ohio State - Heading into the Dook game in the challenge the Buckeyes were a VERY unimpressive 4-2 and I'd have put them down at least a tier. Then they knocked off the Blue Devils and backed it up with a blowout win over the Badgers so maybe? I'm still not completely convinced. The Buckeyes just seem like the kind of team that might knock off one of the best teams in the league then turn around and lose to one of the worst in their next game. Ie, I see this as a "high ceiling / low floor" team where you really never know what you are going to get.
- Michigan State - Izzo.
- Wisconsin - Despite the big loss in Columbus they still strike me as one of the better teams in the league but I guess I'd say they are on notice.
Tier 2:
- Michigan - Maybe. Like @Abba (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=65) said, they have a LOT of potential but they've just looked like complete crap too many times.
- Illinois - I think.
- Indiana - maybe?
- Northwestern - I think?
- Rutgers - The win over Purdue is great but it was at home and they still are the same team that got blown out in Champaign.
- Minnesota - Crushed Michigan in Ann Arbor, lost convincingly at home to MSU.
- Iowa - They are 0-2 but both were close and @PU, vs IL is a pretty tough way to start.
Tier 3:
- Nebraska - Not good.
- Maryland - So bad that they fired their coach in December.
- Penn State - Not good.
We may need more tiers. Tier 2 is probably too big but I don't know that we've seen enough to determine how to break it up yet.
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If anybody wants to take this over, I'll gladly share the spreadsheet from prior years which you can then use as a shell to add in this year's schedule and the results thus far to create the predictions.
Nobody is jumping on this? LoL.
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Looking at where the sort of natural breaks are in KenPom
1: Purdue
2: OSU, MSU, Illinois, UM
3: IU, UW, Iowa
4: NW, Maryland, Minnesota
5: PSU, Rutgers
6: Nebraska
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9: Nebraska
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Looking at where the sort of natural breaks are in KenPom
1: Purdue
2: OSU, MSU, Illinois, UM
3: IU, UW, Iowa
4: NW, Maryland, Minnesota
5: PSU, Rutgers
6: Nebraska
This is fine with me but I would appreciate more input from other posters because it is a lot of work to set it all up and I don't want to get too far into that without having consensus.
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My google-fu is failing me this morning. Can anyone find a link to a concise list of which teams each B1G team misses Home and which teams each B1G team misses away?
There are 14 teams so a full double-round-robin would be 26 games (the other 13 teams twice each). Since we only play 20 games, each team actually plays:
- Three teams home only
- Three teams away only
- Seven teams H/A
I need to know which are which in order to set up the spreadsheet for the predictions.
Thank you.
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Looking at where the sort of natural breaks are in KenPom
1: Purdue
2: OSU, MSU, Illinois, UM
3: IU, UW, Iowa
4: NW, Maryland, Minnesota
5: PSU, Rutgers
6: Nebraska
I'd say switch UW and UM as of this moment. While UM has some potential to gel by the time March comes around, they have not done anything to justify being in Tier 2 yet. They've pretty much been blown out by any team with a pulse that they have played. Even putting them in tier 3, they already have an "upset" loss to Minnie at home.
I'd also say that Minnesota has the potential to be tier 3.
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I'd say switch UW and UM as of this moment. While UM has some potential to gel by the time March comes around, they have not done anything to justify being in Tier 2 yet. They've pretty much been blown out by any team with a pulse that they have played. Even putting them in tier 3, they already have an "upset" loss to Minnie at home.
I'd also say that Minnesota has the potential to be tier 3.
I'm thinking, for the time being, that we should treat the Gophers' win in Ann Arbor as an aberration but obviously be cognizant that if MN pulls off another unpredicted win or two then they move up and if Michigan has another unpredicted loss or two then they move down.
Wisconsin at two or three:
I think three is appropriate for now. Their games are a home win over IU and a road loss to tOSU which would match the projections regardless but the win over IU was close while the loss to tOSU was a blowout. If that were reversed I'd be more open to moving them up.
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If anybody wants to take this over, I'll gladly share the spreadsheet from prior years which you can then use as a shell to add in this year's schedule and the results thus far to create the predictions.
Nobody is jumping on this? LoL.
Apparently not, LoL.
I'm building the spreadsheet using tiers as proposed by @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) :
1: Purdue
2: OSU, MSU, Illinois, UM
3: IU, UW, Iowa
4: NW, Maryland, Minnesota
5: PSU, Rutgers
6: Nebraska
Based on that, the end of January standings (roughly half way) would be:
- 10-0 Illinois
- 8-3 Purdue
- 7-3 MSU
- 7-3 tOSU
- 7-4 IU
- 6-4 M
- 6-4 UW
- 5-5 IA
- 4-6 NU
- 3-7 UMD
- 3-7 MN
- 3-7 RU
- 2-9 PSU
- 1-10 UNL
Illinois' double-round-robin projection would be 19-7. One of the seven losses is at Iowa but they won that last week. The other six are:
- @ PU, 2/10
- @ MSU, 2/19
- @ tOSU, not played
- @ M, 2/27
- @ UW, not played
- @ IU, 2/5
So the 10-0 projection is largely because their schedule is surprisingly back-loaded.
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1. Purdue
2. MSU, Illinois, OSU
3. UW, UM, Iowa
4. Min, IU, NU
5. PSU, RU, UMD
10. UNL
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Illinois' double-round-robin projection would be 19-7. One of the seven losses is at Iowa but they won that last week. The other six are:
- @ PU, 2/10
- @ MSU, 2/19
- @ tOSU, not played
- @ M, 2/27
- @ UW, not played
- @ IU, 2/5
So the 10-0 projection is largely because their schedule is surprisingly back-loaded.
I just want to take a minute to point something out here. THIS (above) is why we do the tiers.
Illinois has three more OOC games and they should win all three to move to 10-3/2-0. Then they should win all eight league games in January to move to 18-3/10-0. If the actually do that, they'll be on an 11-game winning streak, highly ranked, and everyone will be talking about how great they are. Eh . . . not necessarily. You have to look at opponents and locations not just W's and L's. If they do manage to get to 18-3/10-0 that is good, but it doesn't necessarily mean they are all that great, it mostly means that their eight league games in January were all predicted wins.
Also note that there is a flip-side here for Illinois. If their season goes exactly as projected they'll be 18-3/10-0 at the end of January and all the talking heads will be telling us how great they are but then they'll finish a rather pedestrian 6-4 in the second half of their league season and all the talking heads will be asking what is wrong with the Illini. Well, nothing changed, they just played tougher opponents on the road. The same talking heads that will be talking them up at 18-3 will be running them down after the 6-4 finish but they'll be wrong both times.
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My google-fu is failing me this morning. Can anyone find a link to a concise list of which teams each B1G team misses Home and which teams each B1G team misses away?
There are 14 teams so a full double-round-robin would be 26 games (the other 13 teams twice each). Since we only play 20 games, each team actually plays:
- Three teams home only
- Three teams away only
- Seven teams H/A
I need to know which are which in order to set up the spreadsheet for the predictions.
Thank you.
Still looking, can anyone help me out? I use it as a double-check for the spreadsheet.
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if Michigan has another unpredicted loss or two then they move down.
What has Michigan done though to deserve Tier 2 though? I think it's the other way around. Michigan should be a 3 and they can move up if they have a surprise win or two.
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Still looking, can anyone help me out? I use it as a double-check for the spreadsheet.
Nevermind, found it:
https://bigten.org/news/2021/5/13/2021-22-big-ten-mens-basketball-conference-opponent-breakdown.aspx
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What has Michigan done though to deserve Tier 2 though? I think it's the other way around. Michigan should be a 3 and they can move up if they have a surprise win or two.
Basically my answer is that I already set up the spreadsheet and I really don't want to change it until we are more certain.
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If they are cheating, they really suck at it.
(https://i.imgur.com/lTd84DC.png)
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well, at least they were trying
wasn't helping much
probably going to be done soon anyway due to lack of wins
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Basically my answer is that I already set up the spreadsheet and I really don't want to change it until we are more certain.
Inertia - the most powerful force in the galaxy.
Anyways, Michigan is a tough nut to crack. They did have a strong win over San Diego State, and looked great against Nebraska, but also looked pretty bad in a few other games. That said, they have a lot of potential to improve compared to other teams, as well.
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Projected standings heading into the final weekend:
- 15-4: PU (vsIU), IL (vsIA)
- 14-5: MSU (vsUMD), tOSU (vsM)
- 12-7: M (@tOSU)
- 11-8: IA (@IL), IU (@PU)
- 10-9: UW (vsUNL)
- 8-11: MN (@NU), NU (vsMN)
- 7-12: UMD (@MSU)
- 4-15: PSU (@RU)
- 3-16: RU (vsPSU)
- 1-18: UNL (@UW)
Thus, the projected final standings are:
- 16-4 Illinois (wins tiebreaker over PU based on record against tOSU&MSU)
- 16-4 Purdue
- 15-5 Ohio State (wins tiebreaker over MSU based on H2H, no game in E. Lansing)
- 15-5 Michigan State
- 12-8 Michigan
- 11-9 Wisconsin (wins tiebreaker over IA and IU based on H2H2H)
- 11-9 Iowa (second in H2H2H tiebreaker with UW and IU)
- 11-9 Indiana (loses tiebreaker with UW and IA based on H2H2H)
- 9-11 Northwestern
- 8-12 Minnesota
- 7-13 Maryland
- 4-16 Rutgers (wins tiebreaker over PSU based on record against PU)
- 4-16 Penn State
- 1-19 Nebraska
Thus the B1G Tournament match-ups would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:
- #11 Maryland vs #14 Nebraska, 9:30pm, BTN
- #12 Rutgers v #13 Penn State, 6pm, BTN
Thursday, March 10, 2022:
- #5 Michigan vs PSU/RU, noon, BTN
- #6 Wisconsin vs UMD/UNL, 9pm, BTN
- #7 Iowa vs #10 Minnesota, 6:30pm, BTN
- #8 Indiana vs #9 Northwestern, noon, BTN
Friday, March 11, 2022:
- #1 Illinois vs IU/NU, noon, BTN
- #2 Purdue vs IA/MN, 6:30pm, BTN
- #3 Ohio State vs UW/UMD/UNL, 9pm, BTN
- #4 Michigan State vs M/PSU/RU, 2:30pm, BTN
Saturday, March 12, 2022:
- IL/IU/NU vs MSU/M/PSU/RU, 1pm, CBS
- PU/IA/MN vs tOSU/UW/UMD/UNL, 3:30pm, CBS
Sunday, March 13, 2022:
- IL/IU/NU/MSU/M/PSU/RU vs PU/IA/MN/tOSU/UW/UMD/UNL, 3:30pm, CBS
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I'm thinking, for the time being, that we should treat the Gophers' win in Ann Arbor as an aberration but obviously be cognizant that if MN pulls off another unpredicted win or two then they move up and if Michigan has another unpredicted loss or two then they move down.
Wisconsin at two or three:
I think three is appropriate for now. Their games are a home win over IU and a road loss to tOSU which would match the projections regardless but the win over IU was close while the loss to tOSU was a blowout. If that were reversed I'd be more open to moving them up.
I am with grillrat. I'd switch UM and UW.
And I'm not sure the Gophers win against Michigan should be treated as an aberration. They kept the game close going into the half....and then completely controlled the second half. Even with a 19 point deficit to MSU....they managed to pull the game back to single digits with four minutes remaining and down to six with less than a minute. That was on 6-23 (26.1%) shooting from three. MSU went 10-21 (47.6%) for the game.
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Most to least favorable schedules:
(https://i.imgur.com/Gs8AWLC.png)
Most favorable are Northwestern and Maryland. We project that both would go 9-17 in a double-round-robin and the six games not on the schedule for the Wildcats and the Terrapins are five losses and just a single win which improves their projections up to 8-12.
Least favorable is Michigan. We project that they would go 19-7 in a double-round-robin but they miss six wins and zero losses so that drops to just 13-7 on the actual schedule.
Rutgers' schedule is also fairly unfavorable but everybody else is pretty even.
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Most favorable are Northwestern and Maryland.
No. No. No. No. No.
Didn't you know the Big Ten added Maryland only to screw them?
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I am with grillrat. I'd switch UM and UW.
And I'm not sure the Gophers win against Michigan should be treated as an aberration. They kept the game close going into the half....and then completely controlled the second half. Even with a 19 point deficit to MSU....they managed to pull the game back to single digits with four minutes remaining and down to six with less than a minute. That was on 6-23 (26.1%) shooting from three. MSU went 10-21 (47.6%) for the game.
I don't necessarily disagree with you and @grillrat (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=11) , it is just that I already built the spreadsheet and I'm really not sure so I'd rather wait until we have more information.
FWIW, here are the impacts of the proposed changes:
Effect of moving Michigan down:
This changes the projected result to L from W for the following four games:
- vs PU - 1/11
- @NU - not played
- @MN - not played
- @UMD - not played
Since three of the four aren't played this would only have a minimal impact. Michigan's projection would drop from 12-8 into a tie with IA, UW, and IU at 11-9.
Effect of moving Wisconsin up:
This changes the projected result to W from L for the following four games:
- vs PU - 3/1
- @NU - 1/18
- @MN - 2/23
- @UMD - 1/9
In this case all four games are on the schedule so it would improve Wisconsin's projected finish to 15-5 from 11-9. That would be in a tie with tOSU and MSU for 3rd/4th/5th.
Effect of moving Minnesota up:
This changes the projected result to W from L for the following six games:
- vs IL - 1/2
- vs MSU - already lost
- vs tOSU - 1/27
- vs M - not played
- @PSU - 1/19
- @RU - not played
Since two of the games are not played and a third they already lost this change would only improve their projected final to 11-9 from 8-12. This would be into the tie with IA/UW/IU. In this case the change would also create an upset but making Michigan State's win in Minneapolis an upset. Furthermore, Minnesota's next league game is vs Illinois which is another of the group where this matters. We'll see what happens on January 2.
In the second half of December the Wolverines have three OOC games that they should easily win then they resume conference play at Rutgers on January 4. If they struggle with their OOC opponents then lose in Piscataway we'll move them down. If not then probably not.
In the second half of December the Badgers have three OOC games that they should easily win then they resume conference play at Purdue on January 3 followed by hosting Iowa on January 6. If they steamroll their OOC opponents then (at least) give PU a good game in West Lafayette and cruise past Iowa at home we'll move them up. If not then probably not.
In the second half of December the Gophers have three OOC games that they should easily win then they resume conference play at home against Illinois on January 2. If they crush their OOC opponents then beat the Illini in Minneapolis we'll move them up. If not then probably not.
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Also, this Northwestern team looks good enough that, if the schedule does break that way for them, could be a 5th or 6th place type team, that sneaks into the tourney
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We are now in a fairly quiet period between the challenge and other early big OOC games along with the early league games and the resumption of league play in January. Between now and January 2 when league play resumes these are the only games that I see as being of much note:
- Purdue vs Butler in Indianapolis at noon on Saturday, December 18, FOX
- Indiana vs Notre Dame in Indianapolis at 2:30 on Saturday, December 18, FOX
- Ohio State vs Kentucky in Vegas at 5:15 on Saturday, December 18, CBS
- Illinois vs Mizzou in St. Louis at 9pm on Wednesday, December 22, BTN
Then nine of our 14 schools have bowl games all between Tuesday, December 28 and Saturday, January 1.
On Sunday, January 2 league BB games resume with more than half of our teams in action on that day. The tip times on Sunday, January 2 are staggered such that if you want it you can watch eight straight hours of B1G BB starting with MSU and Northwestern tipping off in Evanston at 2pm and ending with Ohio State and Nebraska finishing up around 10pm in Lincoln.
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I had totally forgot, until someone recently mentioned it, that the Big Ten played on Christmas Day last year
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If they are cheating, they really suck at it.
(https://i.imgur.com/lTd84DC.png)
https://twitter.com/TrevAlberts/status/1470881454674649093?s=20
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No one is more surprised with the Gophers season so far than me or any gopher fan
but the days of Pitino's weaka$$ defense, and selfish offense are gone. these players play hard and while they are not ultra talented they have some talent and if hot can hit from 3 and pound it inside enough to give any team that wants a night off to pay the price
they are a much more fun team to watch than in the past 5-10 years
things are looking up at the Barn
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No one is more surprised with the Gophers season so far than me or any gopher fan
but the days of Pitino's weaka$$ defense, and selfish offense are gone. these players play hard and while they are not ultra talented they have some talent and if hot can hit from 3 and pound it inside enough to give any team that wants a night off to pay the price
they are a much more fun team to watch than in the past 5-10 years
things are looking up at the Barn
How do things look for the Gophers?
They are now 9-1/1-1 with two more OOC match-ups in December before league play resumes in January. None of their OOC opponents are great but they should pretty easily beat Green Bay and Alcorn State to finish 10-0 OOC.
Within the league their current, tier-4 placement suggests a final record of 7-13 but they already have an upset win (at Michigan) so that improves to 8-12. Added to their presumed 10-0 OOC, that would put them at 18-12/8-12 heading into the B1G Tournament where we project them to be the #10 seed. That would put them into a Thursday game against a likely tournament-bound team (currently projected Iowa) and if they win that they'd get the #2 seed on Friday in a game where a loss wouldn't really hurt and a win would be HUGE. If they did manage to knock off the #2 seed (projected PU right now) that would put them in a Saturday game against the #3/6/11/14 winner which would likely be yet another tournament-bound team (currently projected tOSU/UW/UMD/UNL).
As I see it, their current projection is probably just outside of the Tournament but certainly in the bubble discussion so over the whole course of the season they probably either need:
- To get another unpredicted win or two (plus one more for each unpredicted loss if necessary), or
- To go on a little run in Indianapolis.
My point being that I see the Gophers as probably very close to the cut-line based on this projection so every game matters because an extra loss or two would likely necessitate winning the B1G Tournament while an extra couple of wins would likely eliminate the need to do much in Indianapolis (with the possible exception of avoiding a bad loss in their opener if they manage to move up enough to get an opening game opponent that would constitute a bad loss.
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Confirming the above, in Lunardi's latest Bracketology (updated for the 12/9 games) the Gophers are listed as the #8 team out.
The B1G leads all conferences with nine teams projected in (B12 and SEC are tied for second with seven each, BE and ACC are tied for fourth with six each).
The projected B1G teams are:
- #1 Purdue
- #4 Michigan State
- #5 Wisconsin
- #6 Ohio State
- #7 Michigan, Illinois
- #9 Indiana, Iowa
- #11 (play-in) Northwestern
Those seeds would result in the following number of teams making each round based on tournament history since expansion to 64 in 1985:
- 5.47 teams in the R32
- 2.52 teams in the S16
- 1.23 teams in the E8
- 0.65 teams in the F4
- 0.33 teams in the NC
- 0.19 teams winning the NC
Method:
- I treat Northwestern as 1/2 of an 11 seed on the basis that they have to win a play-in game to get it.
- In the R64 #1 seeds have won 99.31% of the time, #4 seeds 78.47%, #5 seeds 64.58%, #6 seeds 62.50%, #7 seeds 60.42%, #9 seeds 48.61%, and #11 seeds 37.50%. Add those up for the nine projected teams and you get 547.22% or roughly five-and-a-half teams in the R32
- In the R32 #1 seeds have won 85.42% of the time, #4 seeds 46.53%, #5 seeds 34.03%, #6 seeds 29.86%, #7 seeds 19.44%, #9 seeds 4.86%, and #11 seeds 16.67%. Add those up for the nine and you get 252.78% or roughly two-and-a-half teams in the S16.
- Etc.
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NCAA Tournament performance by seed in the 36 Tournaments from 1985-2021:
#1 seeds:
- 143/144 won their opener against #16.
- 123/143 won their second round game against #8/9 to make the S16.
- 100/123 won their S16 game against #4/5/12/13 to make the E8.
- 60/100 won their E8 game against #2/3/6/7/10/11/14/15 to make the F4.
- 37/60 won their F4 game to make the NC.
- 23/37 won the NC.
#2 seeds:
- 135/144 won their opener against #15.
- 91/135 won their second round game against #7/10 to make the S16.
- 65/91 won their S16 game against #3/6/11/14 to make the E8.
- 29/65 won their E8 game against #1/4/5/8/9/12/13/16 to make the F4.
- 12/29 won their F4 game to make the NC.
- 5/12 won the NC.
#3 seeds:
- 122/144 won their opener against #14.
- 75/122 won their second round game against #6/11 to make the S16.
- 37/75 won their S16 game against #2/7/10/15 to make the E8.
- 17/37 won their E8 game against #1/4/5/8/9/12/13/16 to make the F4.
- 11/17 won their F4 game to make the NC.
- 4/11 won the NC.
#4 seeds:
- 113/144 won their opener against #13.
- 67/113 won their second round game against #5/12 to make the S16.
- 21/67 won their S16 game against #1/8/9/16 to make the E8.
- 13/21 won their E8 game against #2/3/6/7/10/11/14/15 to make the F4.
- 3/13 won their F4 game to make the NC.
- 1/3 won the NC.
#5 seeds:
- 93/144 won their opener against #12.
- 49/93 won their second round game against #4/13 to make the S16.
- 9/49 won their S16 game against #1/8/9/16 to make the E8.
- 7/9 won their E8 game against #2/3/6/7/10/11/14/15 to make the F4.
- 3/7 won their F4 game to make the NC.
- ZERO won the NC.
#6 seeds:
- 90/144 won their opener against #11.
- 43/90 won their second round game against #3/14 to make the S16.
- 15/43 won their S16 game against #2/7/10/15 to make the E8.
- 3/15 won their E8 game against #1/4/5/8/9/12/13/16 to make the F4.
- 2/3 won their F4 game to make the NC.
- 1/2 won the NC.
#7 seeds:
- 87/144 won their opener against #10.
- 28/87 won their second round game against #2/15 to make the S16.
- 10/28 won their S16 game against #3/6/11/14 to make the E8.
- 3/10 won their E8 game against #1/4/5/8/9/12/13/16 to make the F4.
- 1/4 won their F4 game to make the NC.
- 1/1 won the NC.
#8 seeds:
- 70/144 won their opener against #9.
- 14/70 won their second round game against #1 (all #1 because the one #16 to knock off a #1 played a #9) in the second round to make the S16.
- 8/15 won their S16 game against #4/5/12/13 to make the E8.
- 5/8 won their E8 game against #2/3/6/7/10/11/14/15 to make the F4.
- 3/5 won their F4 game to make the NC.
- 1/3 won the NC.
#9 seeds:
- 74/144 won their opener against #8.
- 7/74 won their second round game (six against #1, one against #16) to make the S16.
- 4/7 won their S16 game against #4/5/12/13 to make the E8.
- 1/4 won their E8 game to make the F4.
- No #9 seed or lower has ever won a F4 game.
#10 seeds:
- 57/144 won their opener against #7.
- 23/57 won their second round game against #2/15 to make the S16.
- 8/23 won their S16 game against #3/6/11/14 to make the E8.
- 1/8 won their E8 game against #1/4/5/8/9/12/13/16 to make the F4.
#11 seeds:
- 54/144 won their opener against #6.
- 24/54 won their second round game against #3/14 to make the S16.
- 9/24 won their S16 game against #2/7/10/15 to make the E8.
- 5/9 won their E8 game against #1/4/5/8/9/12/13/16 to make the F4.
#12 seeds:
- 51/144 won their opener against #5.
- 22/51 won their second round game against #4/13 to make the S16.
- 2/22 won their S16 game against #1/8/9/16 to make the E8.
- No #12 seed or lower has ever won an E8 game.
#13 seeds:
- 31/144 won their opener against #4.
- 6/31 won their second round game against #5/12 to make the S16.
- No #13 seed or lower has ever won a S16 game.
#14 seeds:
- 22/144 won their opener against #3.
- 2/22 won their second round game against #6/11 to make the S16.
#15 seeds:
- 9/144 won their opener against #2.
- 2/9 won their second round game against #7/10 to make the S16.
#16 seeds:
- 1/144 won their opener against #1.
- The one that made the second round lost to a #9 seed.
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wow all that stats would make me dizzy
all i can say watching them is that if they get an injury or two they will drop fast and hard
if they stay healthy and get on a hot streak they will win a game or two they are not supposed to win.
last night they has 28 or so turn overs? but they were very hot from 3 early and built a lead up. Coach played true freshmen the last 2-3 minutes and they gave up a 16 point lead and held on for an 8 point game that wasnt that close even with all the turn overs
they play a tough defense and all can shot the ball so when one is cold another might be hot enough to win
but again if they get an injury it is all over they are not deep at all
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Drop Wisconsin low. I dislike expectations
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UW is so different without Johnny Davis on the floor.
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How do things look for the Gophers?
They are now 9-1/1-1 with two more OOC match-ups in December before league play resumes in January. None of their OOC opponents are great but they should pretty easily beat Green Bay and Alcorn State to finish 10-0 OOC.
Within the league their current, tier-4 placement suggests a final record of 7-13 but they already have an upset win (at Michigan) so that improves to 8-12. Added to their presumed 10-0 OOC, that would put them at 18-12/8-12 heading into the B1G Tournament where we project them to be the #10 seed. That would put them into a Thursday game against a likely tournament-bound team (currently projected Iowa) and if they win that they'd get the #2 seed on Friday in a game where a loss wouldn't really hurt and a win would be HUGE. If they did manage to knock off the #2 seed (projected PU right now) that would put them in a Saturday game against the #3/6/11/14 winner which would likely be yet another tournament-bound team (currently projected tOSU/UW/UMD/UNL).
As I see it, their current projection is probably just outside of the Tournament but certainly in the bubble discussion so over the whole course of the season they probably either need:
- To get another unpredicted win or two (plus one more for each unpredicted loss if necessary), or
- To go on a little run in Indianapolis.
My point being that I see the Gophers as probably very close to the cut-line based on this projection so every game matters because an extra loss or two would likely necessitate winning the B1G Tournament while an extra couple of wins would likely eliminate the need to do much in Indianapolis (with the possible exception of avoiding a bad loss in their opener if they manage to move up enough to get an opening game opponent that would constitute a bad loss.
Not sure you can use subjective tier placements to extrapolate an entire season. Gophers....at their current tier 4 placement....already beat a tier 2 opponent on their home court. Only loss to a tier 1 opponent. Until league play gets kicked off in January....the tiers really don't hold much weight. Especially for a team like the Gophers that have already beaten two teams (as true away games) on their home courts.
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Not sure you can use subjective tier placements to extrapolate an entire season. Gophers....at their current tier 4 placement....already beat a tier 2 opponent on their home court. Only loss to a tier 1 opponent. Until league play gets kicked off in January....the tiers really don't hold much weight. Especially for a team like the Gophers that have already beaten two teams (as true away games) on their home courts.
First, I get that it is early and the tiers are very much in flux.
Second, I don't know where you are getting this "already beaten two teams (as true away games) on their home courts." The Gophers are 1-1 with an eight point HOME loss to Michigan State and a 10 point ROAD win over Michigan. The Michigan win was close throughout the first half with the Wolverines holding a four point halftime lead and Minnesota caught up and pulled away in the second half. The Michigan State game was not really as close as the final score. The Spartans lead almost the entire game and were ahead by double digits with a minute to play.
A lot of people are urging that we move MN up a tier but the home loss to MSU suggests that tier-4 is appropriate because MSU is in tier-2 and a tier-3 team should win a home game against a tier-2 team. Conversely, the road win at tier-2 Michigan suggests that either Michigan is too high or Minnesota is too low or probably both since a tier-2 team should win all of their home games.
My point being that right now Minnesota would have at least one upset no matter where we slotted them. At tier-3 or higher the home loss to MSU is an "upset" and the road win over Michigan would be an "upset" even if we moved Minnesota all the way up to tier-1 with Purdue. Ie, there isn't a right answer yet. Either MSU is underrated, Minnesota is underrated, Michigan is overrated, some combination of the three, or one of these games was simply an aberration. Right now I don't think anybody knows for sure. When we get to March we might look back and think "Of course Minnesota won at Michigan" or "How the heck did Minnesota win at Michigan" or "How the heck did MSU win at Minnesota?". We don't know yet.
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First, I get that it is early and the tiers are very much in flux.
Second, I don't know where you are getting this "already beaten two teams (as true away games) on their home courts." The Gophers are 1-1 with an eight point HOME loss to Michigan State and a 10 point ROAD win over Michigan. The Michigan win was close throughout the first half with the Wolverines holding a four point halftime lead and Minnesota caught up and pulled away in the second half. The Michigan State game was not really as close as the final score. The Spartans lead almost the entire game and were ahead by double digits with a minute to play.
A lot of people are urging that we move MN up a tier but the home loss to MSU suggests that tier-4 is appropriate because MSU is in tier-2 and a tier-3 team should win a home game against a tier-2 team. Conversely, the road win at tier-2 Michigan suggests that either Michigan is too high or Minnesota is too low or probably both since a tier-2 team should win all of their home games.
My point being that right now Minnesota would have at least one upset no matter where we slotted them. At tier-3 or higher the home loss to MSU is an "upset" and the road win over Michigan would be an "upset" even if we moved Minnesota all the way up to tier-1 with Purdue. Ie, there isn't a right answer yet. Either MSU is underrated, Minnesota is underrated, Michigan is overrated, some combination of the three, or one of these games was simply an aberration. Right now I don't think anybody knows for sure. When we get to March we might look back and think "Of course Minnesota won at Michigan" or "How the heck did Minnesota win at Michigan" or "How the heck did MSU win at Minnesota?". We don't know yet.
I was referring to the win over Mississippi State. True road game against another team that should be in the NCAA mix.
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I was referring to the win over Mississippi State. True road game against another team that should be in the NCAA mix.
Oh, sorry. Thought we were talking league games. It is early, we'll find out.
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Oh, sorry. Thought we were talking league games. It is early, we'll find out.
Yeah. Things will hash out in the first few weeks of the year. Really....most Gopher fans would have scoffed at a pre-season NIT bid. With how thin the bench is....any player going down would be a major blow.
On the other hand....many of us are hoping that Parker Fox is able to rejoin the team in January. Either way....house money at this point.
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The Ohio State basketball game against Saturday vs. Kentucky in Las Vegas has been canceled, with no reschedule planned. There is reportedly a Covid outbreak among the Buckeye basketball team. The entire team and staff are vaccinated. With what we have going on in the NFL this weekend as well, I do wonder if we'll get to a point in this pandemic where we'll allow vaccinated asymptomatic players to still play. Of course the danger there is someone claiming to be asymptomatic when they are not.
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The Ohio State basketball game against Saturday vs. Kentucky in Las Vegas has been canceled, with no reschedule planned. There is reportedly a Covid outbreak among the Buckeye basketball team. The entire team and staff are vaccinated. With what we have going on in the NFL this weekend as well, I do wonder if we'll get to a point in this pandemic where we'll allow vaccinated asymptomatic players to still play. Of course the danger there is someone claiming to be asymptomatic when they are not.
Bummer.
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Wonder if this impacts any bowls, or even the CFP. Seems to be mounting, but I agree, they might need to do something about the guidelines.
Also, wasn't this a neutral court game? Sucks for anyone who has travel plans
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Wonder if this impacts any bowls, or even the CFP. Seems to be mounting, but I agree, they might need to do something about the guidelines.
Also, wasn't this a neutral court game? Sucks for anyone who has travel plans
It was in Vegas and part of a double-header with UCLA/UNC in the other game. UCLA canceled their last game also for COVID reasons so I would guess that right now they are trying to work out a UK/UNC game but who knows?
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https://twitter.com/RealPitino/status/1471603938684289026?t=GN2fMW8RZnSaCdSQnMp9Zg&s=19
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...I would guess that right now they are trying to work out a UK/UNC game but who knows?
yep:
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/32889482/ucla-bruins-pause-men-college-basketball-activities-cancel-game-vs-north-carolina-tar-heels
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It was a fairly quiet and generally good weekend for the B1G:
- PU smoked Butler on Saturday.
- IU beat Notre Dame on Saturday.
- IL beat St. Francis PA on Saturday.
- M beat So. Utah on Saturday.
- IA beat Ut. St. on Saturday.
- NU, PSU, RU, and tOSU had their Saturday games cancelled or postponed.
- UNL was reasonably competitive in a loss to KSU on Sunday.
This week we have:
- PU hosts Incarnate Word tonight.
- NU hosts IL-Springfield tonight.
- M hosts PU-Ft. Wayne Tuesday.
- MSU is at Oakland Tuesday.
- IA hosts SE LA Tuesday.
- IU hosts NKY Wednesday.
- UNL hosts Kennesaw St Wednesday.
- MN hosts GB Wednesday.
- IL faces Mizzou in St. Louis Wednesday.
- PSU's game with Quinnipiac is cancelled (was Wednesday)
- UW hosts Morgan St Thursday.
- RU hosts Central CT Thursday.
- No games Christmas Eve, Christmas, 12/26, or 12/27.
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Seton Hall now 1-1 in the Big East thanks to a COVID forfeit loss, followed by a solid bounce back COVID forfeit win
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Morgan State at UW is off due to MS Covid issues. UW looking for a replacement.
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Composite Computer Rankings (last week in parenthesis) - 40 computers
- Baylor (1)
- Arizona (2)
- LSU (5)
- PURDUE (6)
- Kansas (3)
- Gonzaga (7)
- Duke (8)
- Houston (9)
- Auburn (12)
- Alabama (4)
- USC (10)
- UCLA (11)
- MICHIGAN STATE (13)
- Xavier (17)
- OHIO STATE (15)
- Tennessee (16)
- Seton Hall (18)
- ILLINOIS (24)
- Texas (21)
- Villanova (14)
- BYU (-)
- Iowa State (-)
- Colorado State (23)
- Loyola(Chi) (20)
- Connecticut (19)
- 26. Wisconsin (22)
- 27. Iowa (36)
- 32. Michigan (34)
- 34. Indiana (31)
- 39. Minnesota (39)
- 55. Northwestern (53)
- 76. Maryland (80)
- 95. Penn State (98)
- 119. Rutgers (118)
- 168. Nebraska (169)
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UW will be hosting George Mason this Thursday. Glad they were able to find a replacement.
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UW will be hosting George Mason this Thursday. Glad they were able to find a replacement.
Re-cancelled due to COVID issues within Wisconsin's program
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Re-cancelled due to COVID issues within Wisconsin's program
Quite annoyed by this
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WTF.
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I better get my booster
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Or take a rapid test, and see if they could use your remaining eligibility
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I'm so bad at hoops, I couldn't even help the Huskers
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Way to bury arguably one of the best regular season games in recent memory on ESPNU on NYD
https://twitter.com/DavidWorlock/status/1477114402247745542?t=M6BHZSoCqBGVhEpLHxGh3A&s=19
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The last time a basket was made it was 52-48 MSU. It's now 59-57 MSU. Last 16 combined points have come from the line. Just brutal to watch
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The last time a basket was made it was 52-48 MSU. It's now 59-57 MSU. Last 16 combined points have come from the line. Just brutal to watch
Now 65-63. MSU scored two baskets. Northwestern at 15 straight from the libe
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I don't enjoy that UW opens conference play by getting rung up by Purdue tomorrow.
Can't tell if the Big Ten is just deep this year, or if the early run for UW is particularly rough. In any case, I'm hoping for 9-9 the rest of the way before the BTT, 10-8 if things break better. If they want to do more, super, but just get to the damn dance.
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I don't enjoy that UW opens conference play by getting rung up by Purdue tomorrow.
Can't tell if the Big Ten is just deep this year, or if the early run for UW is particularly rough. In any case, I'm hoping for 9-9 the rest of the way before the BTT, 10-8 if things break better. If they want to do more, super, but just get to the damn dance.
Conference was top heavy last year, I think there's more depth this year. It looks like everyone except Nebraska and Penn State has a shot to make the tournament
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75% FT shooter for Nebraska missed a pair with an upset over OSU on the line. Looks like Bucks hang on in OT
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Bucks missing guys, Liddell played like crap, but Branham filled it up.
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Composite Computer Rankings (last week in parenthesis) - 24 computers
- Baylor (1)
- Arizona (2)
- Gonzaga (6)
- Kansas (4)
- Auburn (9)
- PURDUE (5)
- Duke (7)
- Houston (8)
- LSU (3)
- USC (11)
- Alabama (15)
- MICHIGAN STATE (10)
- Villanova (16)
- UCLA (12)
- OHIO STATE (14)
- Tennessee (13)
- Texas (24)
- Kentucky (20)
- Xavier (17)
- ILLINOIS (18)
- Providence (-)
- Colorado State (22)
- Connecticut (21)
- Loyola(Chi) (23)
- Texas Tech (-)
- 29. Iowa (33)
- 31. Wisconsin (26)
- 38. Michigan (31)
- 39. Indiana (36)
- 43. Minnesota (43)
- 66. Northwestern (59)
- 70. Maryland (74)
- 90. Penn State (99)
- 114. Rutgers (121)
- 165. Nebraska (168)
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Bucks missing guys, Liddell played like crap, but Branham filled it up.
So basically what you are telling me is that I shouldn't panic over tOSU needing OT against UNL?
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So basically what you are telling me is that I shouldn't panic over tOSU needing OT against UNL?
Definitely not. It's good they got UNL instead of say Purdue coming off the layover, but E.J. Liddell is their best player and he went 2-14 from the field, while their second best player, Kyle Young, didn't play. They won because of their guard play, which had been pretty crappy coming into the game.
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So basically what you are telling me is that I shouldn't panic over tOSU needing OT against UNL?
I wouldn't tell anyone that
UNL is bad
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I wouldn't tell anyone that
UNL is bad
They do suck. I'm disappointed in them - I thought they would be much better this year. They can't shoot from three and half the time it seems they don't guard the three point line.
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Going to try to post an updated NCAA and NIT Bracketology each week, simply 2/3 SOR, and 1/3 KenPom. Things should come into focus more as we go on. Still have some outliers.
For auto-bid purposes, I'm assuming whoever is in first gets the autobid, but that the highest ranked KenPom team wins the tournament
SOUTH
- #1 Baylor vs. #16 Liberty/Texas Southern
- #8 BYU vs. #9 IOWA
- #5 Xavier vs. #12 Ohio
- #4 Alabama vs. #13 Chattanooga
- #3 UCLA vs. #14 Vermont
- #6 North Carolina vs. #11 Murray State
- #7 Texas vs. #10 Central Florida
- #2 Auburn vs. #15 Towson
WEST
- #1 Arizona vs. #16 Winthrop/Howard
- #8 MINNESOTA vs. #9 TCU
- #5 Colorado State vs. #12 INDIANA/Mississippi State
- #4 Houston vs. #13 NM State
- #3 Gonzaga vs. #14 Navy
- #6 Texas Tech vs. #11 Florida
- #7 Seton Hall vs. #10 San Diego State
- #2 USC vs. #15 Princeton
EAST
- #1 Duke vs. #16 Nicholls
- #8 West Virginia vs. #9 ILLINOIS
- #5 Tennessee vs. #12 Creighton/Wyoming
- #4 OHIO STATE vs. #13 UAB
- #3 Providence vs. #14 South Dakota State
- #6 WISCONSIN vs. #11 Iona
- #7 Loyola(Chi) vs. #10 Saint Mary's
- #2 Kansas vs. #15 UC Irvine
MIDWEST
- #1 PURDUE vs. #16 Georgia State
- #8 Kentucky vs. #9 Oklahoma
- #5 Iowa State vs. #12 Davidson
- #4 Villanova vs. #13 Wagner
- #3 LSU vs. #14 Oakland
- #6 San Francisco vs. #11 Wake Forest
- #7 Connecticut vs. #10 Belmont
- #2 MICHIGAN STATE vs. #15 Southern Utah
NIT
CLEMSON
- #1 Clemson vs. #8 UC San Diego
- #4 North Texas vs. #5 Fresno State
- #3 SMU vs. #6 Cleveland State
- #2 NORTHWESTERN vs. #7 Arkansas State
COLLEGE STATION
- #1 Texas A&M vs. #8 Southern
- #4 Stanford vs. #5 Florida State
- #3 MICHIGAN vs. #6 Boston University
- #2 Virginia Tech vs. #7 Florida Gulf Coast
LOUISVILLE
- #1 Louisville vs. #8 Norfolk State
- #4 VCU vs. #5 South Carolina
- #3 Memphis vs. #6 James Madison
- #2 Louisiana Tech vs. #7 Campbell
FAYETTEVILLE
- #1 Arkansas vs. #8 Northern Colorado
- #4 Monmouth vs. #5 Marquette
- #3 Miami vs. #6 Boise State
- #2 St. Bonaventure vs. #7 Texas A&M-CC
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Well, I was wrong with my pick.
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Johnny Davis is the man. Wiscy looked like utter dog crap the last three games then goes to Purdue and wins.
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badgers/boilers better than Browns/Steelers
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badgers/boilers better than Browns/Steelers
First half was rough, second half really picked up though
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Johnny Davis is the man. Wiscy looked like utter dog crap the last three games then goes to Purdue and wins.
If he keeps this up, he will have a good case for the second-best individual season in program history. I don’t think he’ll push Frank, and I would have to double check how good Harris was when he peaked, but he’s on pace to top Tucker’s best, Happ’s 19-10-5 and a few others.
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Maryland/Iowa also better than Browns/Steelers
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If he keeps this up, he will have a good case for the second-best individual season in program history. I don’t think he’ll push Frank, and I would have to double check how good Harris was when he peaked, but he’s on pace to top Tucker’s best, Happ’s 19-10-5 and a few others.
If he keeps this up, he's probably a lottery pick. I knew his 3* ranking was BS.
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So, an update.
The current tiers (although there was a lot of disagreement about this) are:
- PU
- IL, MSU, tOSU, M
- IA, UW, IU
- NU, MN, UMD
- PSU, RU
- UNL
The upsets, based on those tiers, are:
(https://i.imgur.com/5jRkopq.png)
The teams are:
- +2: RU
- +1: IL, UW, NU, MN, PSU
- even: MSU, tOSU, UNL
- -1: IA, IU, UMD
- -2: PU, M
The teams that we should start thinking about moving are those that are outside of +/-1 so:
Rutgers is at +2 with two positive upsets:
- They won a home game over PU on 12/9
- They won a home game over M on 1/4
Those would still both be upsets even if we moved them up a spot but the Michigan game wouldn't be if we also move Michigan down which appears to be needed at this point. Thus, I think Rutgers will be placed back within +/-1 by moving Michigan.
Purdue is at -2 with two negative upsets:
- They lost at RU on 12/9
- They lost a home game to UW on 1/3
Maybe they should move down into the tier with IL, MSU, and tOSU but they seem better than that to me, maybe these are just upsets that we should let ride or maybe Wisconsin should move up but I don't think we've seen enough to know for sure.
Michigan is at -2 with two negative upsets:
- They lost a home game to MN on 12/11
- They lost at RU on 1/4
I think they should move down a tier.
Thoughts?
Questions:
- Should Michigan move down to tier 3?
- Should Rutgers move up to tier 4?
- Should Purdue move down to tier 2 (which would become tier-1)?
- Should we make any other moves at this time?
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I would flip UM and UW and move Rutgers up
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Based on the current tiers (see above) the projected final standings/BTT seeds are:
- 16-4 Illinois
- 15-5 Michigan State (wins H2H tiebreaker with PU, no game in W. Lafayette)
- 15-5 Purdue
- 15-5 Ohio State (loses 3-way tie with PU and MSU based on record against IL)
- 12-8 Wisconsin
- 11-9 Michigan (wins tie with IA based on record against IL)
- 11-9 Iowa
- 10-10 Indiana
- 9-11 Northwestern
- 8-12 Minnesota
- 7-13 Maryland
- 5-15 Rutgers (wins tie with PSU based on record against the 15-5 teams due to their upset of PU)
- 5-15 Penn State
- 1-19 Nebraska
The BTT match-ups would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:
- #11 Maryland vs #14 Nebraska, 830pm, BTN
- #12 Rutgers vs #12 Penn State, 6pm, BTN
Thursday, March 10, 2022:
- #5 Wisconsin vs RU/PSU, 230pm, BTN
- #6 Michigan vs UMD/UNL, 9pm, BTN
- #7 Iowa vs #10 Minnesota, 630pm, BTN
- #8 Indiana vs #9 Northwestern, noon, BTN
Friday, March 11, 2022:
- #1 Illinois vs IU/NU, noon, BTN
- #2 Michigan State vs IA/MN, 630pm, BTN
- #3 Purdue vs M/UMD/UNL, 9pm, BTN
- #4 Ohio State vs UW/RU/PSU, 230pm, BTN
Saturday, March 12, 2022:
- IL/IU/NU vs tOSU/UW/RU/PSU, 1pm, CBS
- MSU/IA/MN vs PU/M/UMD/UNL, 330pm, CBS
Sunday, March 13, 2022:
- IL/IU/NU/tOSU/UW/RU/PSU vs MSU/IA/MN/PU/M/UMD/UNL, 330pm, CBS
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I would flip UM and UW and move Rutgers up
FWIW:
I'm going to hold off on the update until Friday. That way, when I do the update I can include the results of the games tonight and tomorrow.
I don't object to your suggestion but while I'm waiting we'll see what consensus develops.
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I'd move Purdue down.
At this point in the season, they're just not good at defense. They gave up 90 to Nicholls. This is something that has been worrying Purdue fans for weeks, and everyone has just been hoping that Matt Painter will get it figured out. Well, giving up 29 to Gordon from Nicholls and 37 to Davis from Wisconsin suggests they're just not very close to turning it around.
They're not a complete team without defense, and thus I don't see how they're going to be able to separate themselves from the tier below them in any meaningful way until/unless they figure out how to play D.
Granted, moving them down one tier still leaves them at -2 on the upsets, since they lost to Wisconsin at home and Rutgers on the road, EVEN if you move Rutgers up.
But either way, I can't justify them being in a tier all by themselves based on their play on the court.
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Torvik rankings
9. Purdue
13. Illinois
16. MSU
22. Indiana
23. OSU
24. Iowa
37. Michigan
39. Wisconsin
52. Northwestern
62. Minny
93. Maryland
99. PSU
111. Rutgers
170. Nebraska
As far as tiers, hmm. I'd probably arrange them:
1. Purdue, Illinois, MSU
2. OSU, Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin
3. Michigan, Northwestern, Minny, Maryland, PSU, Rutgers
4. Nebraska
Purdue looked lights out early, but they really have been struggling on defense, which is very surprising. Their profile resembles Iowa more than, er, Purdue right now. You have to think that will change given their history, but I'm not sure they are worlds better or have way more potential than Illinois or Sparty. The next group are solid tourney level teams, though Wiscy needs to get more consistent. The third tier are teams that are likely to struggle to make the tourney, which Michigan is definitely a part of right now. The fourth tier is Nebraska Who Sucks.
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Wednesday, March 9, 2022:
- #11 Maryland vs #14 Nebraska, 830pm, BTN
- #12 Rutgers vs #12 Penn State, 6pm, BTN
Yay expansion!
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Torvik rankings
Is that removing preseason data?
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I would flip UM and UW and move Rutgers up
Now, now, now, let’s keep UW nice and below the radar please
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Is that removing preseason data?
Yeah probably, I was looking at both and thought I was doing with but maybe not. Though differences are starting to get pretty minimal at this point.
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Torvik with preseason data
7. Purdue
13. Illinois
16. MSU
20. OSU
21. Indiana
25. Iowa
35. Michigan
40. Wisconsin
52. Northwestern
69. Minny
83. Maryland
93. PSU
103. Rutgers
164. Nebraska
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@MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572)
If you could make your suggestions in a comparable format that would help. I have:
- PU down which @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) also voted for.
- M down two tiers. @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) and I also have them moving down one.
- RU up a tier which ELA also voted for.
- tOSU down a tier.
- PSU up a tier.
I think that is all:
(https://i.imgur.com/RtzTKAw.png)
The "Torvik" column is just basically using the natural gaps in the Torvik rankings as posted by Max:
- 9-PU, 13-IL, 16-MSU
- 23-tOSU, 22-IU, 24-IA
- 37-M, 39-UW, 52-NU, 62-MN
- 93-UMD, 99-PSU, 111-RU
- 170-UNL
Max has four tiers. We currently have six and ELA's suggestion implicitly kept six. Beta's suggestion to move PU down compresses that to five. We only get to four if we move PSU up along with RU to eliminate tier-5.
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I would argue Torvik still has 6, splitting the 3rd tier in half
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Sorry, my thoughts.
- Purdue, Illinois, MSU
- OSU, Indiana, Iowa, Wiscy
- Michigan, Northwestern, Minnesota, PSU, Maryland, Rutgers
- Nebraska
The biggest issue I had was where to place Sparty, who I can't quite decide on. But Tier 3 is very hard for me to differentiate. None of these teams are garbage, and all can bite someone - PSU just beat Indiana and Rutgers beat Purdue.
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I would argue Torvik still has 6, splitting the 3rd tier in half
That is fair, it is a pretty big gap between #39 UW and #52 UMD, so:
(https://i.imgur.com/L0ndVib.png)
The other thing (probably irrelevant) is that Nebraska is SO bad that it could be argued that there should be a blank tier between them and the tier above them.
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Irrespective of the rest of the teams, I might argue that Rutgers should move up. This is purely my belief that Pikiell has been building something there and that the +2 might be an indication that it's starting to bear fruit.
If we have 6 tiers, they should be in tier 4, not 5 IMHO.
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Sorry, my thoughts.
No problem, just easier for me as I try to compile everyone's thoughts and arrive at something like consensus.
The biggest issue I had was where to place Sparty, who I can't quite decide on. But Tier 3 is very hard for me to differentiate. None of these teams are garbage, and all can bite someone - PSU just beat Indiana and Rutgers beat Purdue.
I agree on your tier-3 teams. All seem good enough to knock off a serious contender on a good night and yet bad enough to potentially lose to Nebraska on a bad night.
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Irrespective of the rest of the teams, I might argue that Rutgers should move up. This is purely my belief that Pikiell has been building something there and that the +2 might be an indication that it's starting to bear fruit.
If we have 6 tiers, they should be in tier 4, not 5 IMHO.
A tough to team to rank, with wins over Michigan, Clemson, and Purdue but losses to Depaul, UMass, and Lafayette.
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Very possible that the B1G isn't all that great this season, and parity reigns.
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Very possible that the B1G isn't all that great this season, and parity reigns.
I could be wrong but I'm thinking that we are loaded with teams that are pretty good but we may not have any very good or great teams.
Purdue looked great for a while but now not quite. It just feels like we have a bunch of teams like Ohio State that are good enough to take out a Dook on a good night but also not so good that they couldn't lose to a mediocre (or worse) team on a bad night.
MSU's win over UNL was expected but PSU's win at NU was not. Penn State and Northwestern each already had a positive upset (PSU vs IU, NU @ UMD) so PSU is now +2 and NU is back to even.
Tonight we have:
- UMD -1 at IL +1, IL is expected to win. 7pm on ESPN2
- tOSU even at IU -1, IU is expected to win. 7pm on FS1
- IA -1 at UW +1, UW is expected to win. 9pm on FS1
The only one that could push a team outside of +/-1 is that if tOSU were to win in Bloomington it would push IU to -1 as the Hoosiers already have an upset loss in Happy Valley.
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(https://i.imgur.com/L0ndVib.png)
It looks to me like:
- There is a consensus to move PU down a tier (collapsing them into what was tier-2). @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) wasn't for it, but @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) , @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) , the Torvik #'s, and I are.
- There is unanimous agreement to move M down at least one tier.
I'm not sure what to do with the new top tier. If we move PU and M down we end up with a new tier-1 of PU, IL, MSU, tOSU. The Torvik says that if tOSU is in that tier IA and IU should be as well and ELA had UW moving up. That feels like too many teams but I'm not sure where to break it.
I'm going to play around with the numbers a little to make sure we aren't creating more upsets than we are eliminating.
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I think I'd leave PU in the top top, but have them be joined by MSU, and MAYBE Illinois.
Then OSU, UW, IL (if not in with the 1's), Iowa.
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I like Illinois a lot - Cockburn is a monster and they surround him with experienced shooters. They got clipped early in the season when Cockburn was getting back from suspension and Curbelo was playing with a concussion, but since then their only blip is a close loss to Arizona. No shame in that. They have two road wins in conference already, and they are still waiting for Curbelo to come back.
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Purdue looked great for a while but now not quite.
Purdue's problems right now, IMHO, are fixable. It's not a matter of talent, nor is it a matter of depth, nor is it a matter of versatility for matchups... ALL of which Purdue still has in spades.
On Painter's radio show he basically has said the defensive issues have been one of communication and cohesion. It isn't that players aren't defending, or that they're defending badly, but that if one player is expecting to switch a screen and the other is expecting to fight through it, then you have a breakdown. If one player is expecting you to fight above a screen on a shooter and the other slips underneath, you leave a guy like Davis open to shoot.
Maybe getting their teeth kicked in a few times, and starting the B1G season 1-2, will get them to listen to Coach and get on the same page. If that happens, Purdue can be elite again. They've got ALL the pieces, it's just not a complete puzzle yet.
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MSU's halfcourt offense continues to be very concerning. Walker is solid, but he's no threat to shoot, and Big Ten teams have turned him into Tum Tum Nairn, just sagging off and clogging the passing lanes. Hoggard is good in transition, but a turnover machine in the halfcourt. MSU had turnovers on 11 of their first 21 possessions last night.
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The B1G could go ten deep in the NCAA, and not have anyone get out of the first weekend.
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Jeremy Fears, a top 5 PG, and top 25 overall player in the 2023 class set to announce tonight. Has 3 Big 10 schools (MSU, UM, Illinois) in his final 4, along with Illinois. Indiana kid oddly omitting Indiana and Purdue
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Jeremy Fears, a top 5 PG, and top 25 overall player in the 2023 class set to announce tonight. Has 3 Big 10 schools (MSU, UM, Illinois) in his final 4, along with Illinois. Indiana kid oddly omitting Indiana and Purdue
Interesting... Doesn't look like Purdue even offered him.
Purdue already has a 2023 PG commit from Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, who is about the same level in recruiting ranking: https://247sports.com/player/dra-gibbs-lawhorn-46099439/
Was local but then went out to UT for HS ball.
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Jeremy Fears, a top 5 PG, and top 25 overall player in the 2023 class set to announce tonight. Has 3 Big 10 schools (MSU, UM, Illinois) in his final 4, along with Kansas. Indiana kid oddly omitting Indiana and Purdue
Fixed
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I like Illinois a lot - Cockburn is a monster and they surround him with experienced shooters. They got clipped early in the season when Cockburn was getting back from suspension and Curbelo was playing with a concussion, but since then their only blip is a close loss to Arizona. No shame in that. They have two road wins in conference already, and they are still waiting for Curbelo to come back.
I agree so I'll keep IL in the top tier.
I think I'd leave PU in the top top, but have them be joined by MSU, and MAYBE Illinois.
Then OSU, UW, IL (if not in with the 1's), Iowa.
The problem for this is tOSU. As a Buckeye fan I'd rather have them under the radar in tier-2 but based on results so far, they should stay in tier-1.
The difference is projected result in road games against tier-3 teams. For Ohio State those are:
- @ NU, not scheduled
- @ PSU, W on
- @ MN - 1/27
- @ RU - 2/9
- @ M - 2/12
- @ UMD - 2/27
Right now tOSU is 1-0 in these games with four more to be played. If they lose at Minnesota or generally look bad between now and then I'll move them down but for now moving them down would add to the total number of "upsets". f
Thus, new tiers:
- IL, MSU, tOSU, PU
- UW, IU, IA
- NU, MN, RU, PSU, UMD, M
- BLANK
- UNL
New projected final standings/BTT seeds:
- 17-3 Illinois
- 16-4 Ohio State (wins tie with MSU based on H2H, no game in E. Lansing)
- 16-4 Michigan State
- 13-7 Purdue
- 12-8 Wisconsin
- 11-9 Indiana
- 10-10 Iowa
- *8-12 Penn State
- 8-12 Minnesota
- 8-12 Northwestern
- 8-12 Rutgers
- 7-13 Maryland
- 6-14 Michigan
- 0-20 Nebraska
Thus, the projected BTT match-ups in Indianapolis are:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:
- #11 Rutgers vs #14 Nebraska, 830pm, BTN
- #12 Maryland vs #13 Michigan 6pm, BTN
Thursday, March 10, 2022:
- #5 Wisconsin vs UMD/M, 230pm, BTN
- #6 Indiana vs RU/UNL, 9pm, BTN
- #7 Iowa vs #10 Northwestern, 630pm, BTN
- #8 Penn State vs #9 Minnesota, noon, BTN
Friday, March 11, 2022:
- #1 Illinois vs PSU/MN, noon, BTN
- #2 Ohio State vs IA/NU, 630pm, BTN
- #3 Michigan State vs IU/RU/UNL, 9pm, BTN
- #4 Purdue vs UW/UMD/M, 230pm, BTN
Saturday, March 12, 2022:
- IL/PSU/MN vs PU/UW/UMD/M, 1pm, CBS
- tOSU/IA/NU vs MSU/IU/RU/UNL, 330pm, CBS
Sunday, March 13, 2022:
- IL/PSU/MN/PU/UW/UMD/M vs tOSU/IA/NU/MSU/IU/RU/UNL, 330pm, CBS
*Breaking the 4-way tie at 8-12 for seeds 8-11 between NU, MN, RU, and PSU:
The H2H2H2H would theoretically be 3-3 for each if we played a full double-round-robin but we don't.
- NU and RU don't play in Piscataway. That improves NU to 3-2 and drops RU to 2-3.
- MN and RU don't play in Piscataway. That improves MN to 3-2 and drops RU to 1-3.
- PSU won in Evanston. That improves PSU to 4-2 and drops NU to 2-3.
Thus the projected H2H2H2H between the 8-12 teams is:
- 4-2 Penn State
- 3-2 Minnesota
- 2-3 Northwestern
- 1-3 Rutgers
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Fixed
Committed to MSU. A little surprised. Third straight year MSU has taken a freshman PG
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This is supposed to fire your fan base up? Looks like he just lost and learned his dog died
https://twitter.com/umichbball/status/1479138898731323399?t=K64U9coKXC0zazU8QqRhDA&s=19
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Jeez. Yeah, wrong graphic maybe.
In addition to your things, I would say his girlfriend told him to take a hike too.
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TJD really putting the Buckeyes in a blender
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This is supposed to fire your fan base up? Looks like he just lost and learned his dog died
https://twitter.com/umichbball/status/1479138898731323399?t=K64U9coKXC0zazU8QqRhDA&s=19
Gone now. Cancel culture run amok!
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Had the game on at the gym, saw the early Maryland-Illinois score and thought "Is Maryland kinda bad?"
And now they're up?
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Well, Iowa's defense is bad. Took a garbage time run from Iowa to keep it under 10. Badgers led by 18 with two minutes left.
With that, Wisconsin is seven wins from a pretty sure NCAA tournament spot. Not too bad for a team that lost everyone.
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All three of last night's games were won by the home team as projected so no changes to the projections.
This weekend all teams except Illinois and Iowa are in action. We have:
- Purdue at Penn State Saturday at noon on BTN. PU is -2, PSU is +1 and we project PU to win.
- Nebraska at Rutgers Saturday at 2pm on BTN. UNL is even and RU is +1 and we project RU to win.
- Michigan State at Michigan Saturday at 230 on Fox. MSU is even and M is -1 and we project MSU to win.
- Minnesota at Indiana Sunday at noon on BTN. MN is +1, IU is even, and we project IU to win.
- Northwestern at Ohio State Sunday at 530 on BTN. NU and tOSU are both even and we project tOSU to win.
- Wisconsin at Maryland Sunday at 7:30 on BTN. UW is +1, UMD is -1, and we project UMD to win.
In Lunardi's latest Bracketology the B1G has eight teams in (I think we were up to 10 at one point). The only B1G teams on the bubble are Minnesota who has one of the last four byes and Michigan who is one of the "next four out". The teams in are:
- #2 PU
- #3 MSU
- #5 tOSU, Illinois
- #6 UW
- #8 IA
- #9 IU
- #10 Minnesota
Based on historic performances by seed, on average those seeds would result in:
- 5.10 teams in the round of 32.
- 2.44 teams making the second weekend.
- 1.08 teams in the E8.
- 0.49 teams making the final weekend.
- 0.24 teams making the final game.
- 0.08 teams winning the NC.
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https://twitter.com/RealEricTheRed/status/1479474019254554624?t=jg5QeOQvCKQEscDFSkBcwg&s=19
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Fran McCaffery (Iowa)
bringing Hawkeye hoops to the level of Ferentz Football
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Fran McCaffery (Iowa)
bringing Hawkeye hoops to the level of Ferentz Football
(https://i.imgur.com/CZbXDh1.png)
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Fran McCaffery (Iowa)
bringing Hawkeye hoops to the level of Ferentz Football
He was working hard for a tech last night. One Badger fan guessed guard might have called a timeout in part to give Fran more time to abuse the ref. But some of it was after a close call, and another UW fan thought the ref might not have wanted to compound it.
Either way, a delicious win.
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Fran McCaffery (Iowa)
bringing Hawkeye hoops to the level of Ferentz Football
Kirk has 2 Big Ten titles, and 3 BCS/NY6 bowls, which I guess is similar to a Sweet 16
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https://twitter.com/CPY87/status/1479791288455249921?t=TQHjkEP8eqSMI3hhd39g9Q&s=19
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Interesting.
-
Well that's unfortunate.
-
Had a stretch of MSU, Illinois, and Purdue. Wonder if any of those get played
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I'm sure even if they are fine, they will ask the Big Ten to cancel extra games so they can get some practice time, like they did last year
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Had a stretch of MSU, Illinois, and Purdue. Wonder if any of those get played
Better to forfeit than get your ass kicked, perhaps?
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Purdue in a dogfight late with...
...checks notes...
...Penn State?
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Purdue in a dogfight late with...
...checks notes...
...Penn State?
B1G - still a slog
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I think Jaden Ivey might be Purdues only good individual defender. They have enough talent to sort of cover it up, but yikes
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I think Jaden Ivey might be Purdues only good individual defender. They have enough talent to sort of cover it up, but yikes
Ivey has the physical tools to play great defense...
...when he feels like it.
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Rutgers looks like they might be rounding into being a tourney team after all
-
https://twitter.com/CPY87/status/1479791288455249921?t=TQHjkEP8eqSMI3hhd39g9Q&s=19
I wondered what was going on. TV schedule said M/MSU was on Fox. I turned Fox on and got Nova/DePaul.
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Rutgers looks like they might be rounding into being a tourney team after all
every team looks good while playing Nebraska
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every team looks good while playing Nebraska
We looked awful, as did Ohio State
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Fun afternoon. #3 Purdue and #19 Seton Hall barely escaped upsets against unranked opponents. #14 Texas and #15 Alabama couldn't. #1 Baylor, #6 Kansas and undefeated #20 Colorado State all down to unranked teams in the second half.
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Had a stretch of MSU, Illinois, and Purdue. Wonder if any of those get played
Better to forfeit than get your ass kicked, perhaps?
It is certainly convenient timing for a COVID outbreak. This stretch of vs MSU, vs PU, @IL is three likely losses. We project them to finish 6-14 and 13th place but if they miss those three and do not reschedule that improves their projected finish up to 6-11.
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Fun afternoon. #3 Purdue and #19 Seton Hall barely escaped upsets against unranked opponents. #14 Texas and #15 Alabama couldn't. #1 Baylor, #6 Kansas and undefeated #20 Colorado State all down to unranked teams in the second half.
I was lucky enough to instead take my oldest daughter to the mall for a birthday party at a place where all the girls just took pictures of themselves.
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Is Wisconsin the best team in the B1G?
Defense? Check.
Offense? Check.
Will? Check.
Chemistry? Check.
Coaching? Check.
Now, let's watch Maryland kick their ass tomorrow. Heh.
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Is Wisconsin the best team in the B1G?
Defense? Check.
Offense? Check.
Will? Check.
Chemistry? Check.
Coaching? Check.
Now, let's watch Maryland kick their ass tomorrow. Heh.
Shhh, read nothing of this friends. Wisconsin is just an OK lil team. Nothing to see here.
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I thought their offense, outside of Davis, was looking painful at times. If they get that solved, the sky's the limit.
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I thought their offense, outside of Davis, was looking painful at times. If they get that solved, the sky's the limit.
Brad Davison has some notes he took from his freshman year of stuff Adolph Rupp ran
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Brad Davison has some notes he took from his freshman year of stuff Adolph Rupp ran
He told Rupp that this set shot stuff was passe. Jumpers were where it's at.
The kid is in a position that I though wouldn't be good for him. His shooting has been only OK, but he's scoring 14.8 points per game, which is a little bonkers given the role he should have.
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Really liking Tyler Wahl's game right now. Chuckie is playing well too, as is Bowman. The transfers are helping. Gilmore is helping.
The kids can play.
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A defense free first half in Columbus
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That was weird. Wisconsin came in on fire, blew a 21-point lead, survive a dogfight.
Start of January conference play is rough for UW, so a 3-0 start is very good. As long as they hold up and win one of the next three, they're in good shape. If they go 2-1, VERY good shape.
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Apparently Purdue@Michigan is rescheduled...
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That was weird. Wisconsin came in on fire, blew a 21-point lead, survive a dogfight.
Start of January conference play is rough for UW, so a 3-0 start is very good. As long as they hold up and win one of the next three, they're in good shape. If they go 2-1, VERY good shape.
Road win. I'll take it.
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A defense free first half in Columbus
It was sure strange to see the Buckeyes put up 50 in the first half, score nearly a hundred and win a close game.
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That was weird. Wisconsin came in on fire, blew a 21-point lead, survive a dogfight.
Start of January conference play is rough for UW, so a 3-0 start is very good. As long as they hold up and win one of the next three, they're in good shape. If they go 2-1, VERY good shape.
I actually watched this game because it came on right after the tOSU/NU track meet and I thought weird also. Early on it looked like UW was going to run UMD out of the gym and then it ended up as a one point win. But I agree with this:
Road win. I'll take it.
Take any road win you can get, even UNL.
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The only "upset" this weekend vis-a-vis the tiers was Wisconsin's win at Maryland and that ended up as a close game so maybe no changes needed. At this point the only teams outside of +/-1 are:
- +2 Wisconsin
- -2 Purdue
- -2 Maryland
Wisconsin has upset road wins at PU and at UMD. The Purdue win would be an upset no matter what but the Maryland win wouldn't be if we moved UW up.
Maryland has upset losses at home to Northwestern and Wisconsin. Northwestern would be an upset even if we moved UMD down but UW wouldn't be if we moved UMD down or UW up.
Purdue has an upset loss at RU and an upset loss at home to UW. The UW loss would be an upset no matter what. Moving them down doesn't make much sense though because I think most of us think they are pretty good and because their road win at PSU would be an upset if we moved them down.
I don't think there will be any objections if I move UW up and that will get all teams except PU within +/-1.
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I'd leave UW for now.
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Good to see Branham have another good game scoring the ball. Getting consistent scoring from him would be pretty helpful to the cause.
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Current tiers:
- IL+1, UW+1, tOSU, MSU, PU-2
- IU, IA-1
- PSU+1, MN+1, RU+1, NU(even +1, -1), UMD-1, M-1
- blank
- UNL
Projected final standings* and BTT seeds:
- 17-3 Illinois
- 16-4 Ohio State (wins tie with UW based on record against MSU, no game in E. Lansing)
- 16-4 Wisconsin
- 15-4* Michigan State
- 12-7* Purdue
- 11-9 Indiana
- 10-1 Iowa
- 8-12 Penn State
- 7-13 Northwestern (wins tie with MN based on record against IU, no game in Bloomington)
- 7-13 Minnesota
- 7-13 Rutgers (loses tie with NU an MN based on H2H2H, no home games against either)
- 6-12* Michigan
- 6-14 Maryland
- 0-20 Nebraska
Thus, the BTT match-ups in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:
- #11 Rutgers vs #14 Nebraska, 8:30pm, BTN
- #12 Michigan vs #13 Maryland, 6pm, BTN
Thursday, March 10, 2022:
- #5 Purdue vs M/UMD, 230pm, BTN
- #6 Indiana vs RU/UNL, 9pm, BTN
- #7 Iowa vs #10 Minnesota, 630pm, BTN
- #8 Penn State vs #9 Northwestern noon, BTN
Friday, March 11, 2022:
- #1 Illinois vs PSU/NU, noon, BTN
- #2 Ohio State vs IA/MN, 630pm, BTN
- #3 Wisconsin vs IU/RU/UNL, 9pm, BTN
- #4 Michigan State vs PU/M/UMD, 230pm, BTN
Saturday, March 12, 2022:
- IL/PSU/NU vs MSU/PU/M/UMD, 1pm, CBS
- tOSU/IA/MN vs UW/IU/RU/UNL, 330pm, CBS
Sunday, March 13, 2022:
- IL/PSU/NU/MSU/PU/M/UMD vs tOSU/IA/MN/UW/IU/RU/UNL, 330pm, CBS
*I have not projected results for the cancelled Michigan games against MSU and PU because I don't know if those will ultimately be rescheduled or not so for now I am just treating those as "not played".
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I'd leave UW for now.
Sandbagger!
In all seriousness I don't even really consider it much of a choice at this point because the UMD win is an upset if we leave them. I'm the same way, I'd rather have my team in tier-2 but the PSU win is an upset if they aren't in tier-1.
The difference between tier-1 and tier-2 is the projected result in road games against tier-3. For Wisconsin those are:
- @M, not scheduled
- @PSU, not scheduled
- @UMD, W
- @NU 1/18
- @MN 2/23
- @RU 2/26
At this point the Badgers are 1-0 in these games with three to be played AND another positive upset (@PU) so they need to be in tier-1.
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This week (Tuesday-Thursday because I'm treating the Friday games as part of the weekend) all teams are in action except PU and M due to the COVID issues in Ann Arbor. The games are:
- RU @ PSU Tuesday at 630 on BTN, we project a PSU win.
- IL @ UNL Tuesday at 830 on BTN, we project an IL win.
- MN @ MSU Wednesday at 7pm on BTN, we project an MSU win.
- UMD @ NU Wednesday at 9pm on BTN, we project a NU win.
- tOSU @ UW Thursday at 7pm on ESPN3, we project a UW win.
- IU @ IA Thursday at 9pm on FS2, we project an IA win.
The following teams could move outside of +/-1:
- RU would be +2 if they win at PSU
- MN would be +2 if the win at MSU
- IA would be -2 if they lose at home to IU
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OSU and UW on ESecPN THREE???
WTF?
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OSU and UW on ESecPN THREE???
WTF?
I don't get that either. When the new poll comes out this could well be a top-15 match-up.
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UW site says it's on ESecPN TWO, not three.
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UW site says it's on ESecPN TWO, not three.
If you look at either tOSU's or UW's schedule on ESPN's site it says ESPN3. It might change so if you are recording it, maybe record both or check back in a few days.
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I think they sometimes leave those open to slot the better game into ESPN, so maybe it's just there until they decide where to move it?
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Yeah, if you go to the daily schedule, it's showing as being on espn2
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I don't get that either. When the new poll comes out this could well be a top-15 match-up.
UW 13. OSU 16.
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I actually watched this game because it came on right after the tOSU/NU track meet and I thought weird also. Early on it looked like UW was going to run UMD out of the gym and then it ended up as a one point win. But I agree with this:Take any road win you can get, even UNL.
UW is in an intersting spot. They're No. 10 in the country in the somewhat useful but poorly named in terms of triggering people "luck" rating. There's a bit of gambler's fallacy, but they've been really good in close games, and that often evens out.
They are looking down three projected tossups after winning two and pulling a big road upset. Going 1-2 would be fine, 2-1 quite good, 0-3 not damning by any stretch.
More notably, UW has five more should-wins (favored by 7 plus in the ratings), home vs Minn, PSU, Neb, Rutgers and at Neb. If they can avoid an upset, they're a win away from the dance before considering any of the other games. They've got probably six-ish more toss-ups, including Purdue at home (UW at 42% to win), plus three TOUGH road games, as Ill, MSU, IU. KenPom and T-Rank project getting to 13-7 in league. I might take the under there because I'm a sandbagger, but if they want to be there, would take it.
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UW 13. OSU 16.
Well close and it is the only game between two ranked teams that day. The other ranked teams in action are:
- #20 Seton Hall at DePaul (9-5/0-4)
- #19 TxTech vs OkSU (8-5/1-1)
- #3 UCLA vs Oregon (8-6/1-2)
- #2 Gonzaga vs BYU (14-3/2-0)
- #5 USC vs OrSU (3-10/1-2)
- #6 Zona vs Colorado (11-3/3-1)
Only TxTech is in the same time-slot (7pm). Seton Hall is at 5 and all the others are later West Coast games. One would think that tOSU@UW would be the biggest draw of the night.
ESPN's site now says ESPN2 on both tOSU's and UW's schedules.
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UW is in an intersting spot. They're No. 10 in the country in the somewhat useful but poorly named in terms of triggering people "luck" rating. There's a bit of gambler's fallacy, but they've been really good in close games, and that often evens out.
They are looking down three projected tossups after winning two and pulling a big road upset. Going 1-2 would be fine, 2-1 quite good, 0-3 not damning by any stretch.
More notably, UW has five more should-wins (favored by 7 plus in the ratings), home vs Minn, PSU, Neb, Rutgers and at Neb. If they can avoid an upset, they're a win away from the dance before considering any of the other games. They've got probably six-ish more toss-ups, including Purdue at home (UW at 42% to win), plus three TOUGH road games, as Ill, MSU, IU. KenPom and T-Rank project getting to 13-7 in league. I might take the under there because I'm a sandbagger, but if they want to be there, would take it.
Yeah, by a lot. To be fair you did present it as basically a worst case scenario.
In the tiers system we now project them to go 16-4/25-5. I'd definitely take the under on that. Nothing against Wisconsin but typically tier-1 teams tend to get upset more than the pull off upsets simply because they have a LOT more opportunities to get upset.
With respect to the tOSU@UW game on Thursday I have no idea what to expect. At their best the Buckeyes are the team that beat Dook and blew out Wisconsin in Columbus but since the Holidays and their COVID pause the Buckeyes haven't looked very good:
- They needed OT against Nebraska,
- They got run out of the gym in Bloomington, and
- They scored LOTS of points but defended poorly and turned the ball over about a gazillion times such that they only barely beat Northwestern at home.
Meanwhile Wisconsin obviously looked terrible in Columbus and they had uncomfortably close wins after that over Nicholls and Illinois State but since the calendar flipped to 2022 the Badgers have been on fire with the huge win at Purdue and wins over Iowa (home) and Maryland (away).
I also think that the next three for UW as a whole, are better than a toss-up. Per ESPN:
- 61.8% to beat tOSU at home
- 45.7% to beat NU on the road
- 58.4% to beat MSU at home
The tiers say 3-0 and 2-1 wouldn't shock me but if UW goes 1-2 I'd be surprised and if they were to go 0-3 I'd wonder what went wrong.
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Going to try to post an updated NCAA and NIT Bracketology each week, simply 2/3 SOR, and 1/3 KenPom. Things should come into focus more as we go on. Still have some outliers.
For auto-bid purposes, I'm assuming whoever is in first gets the autobid, but that the highest ranked KenPom team wins the tournament
January 10 update
SOUTH
- #1 Baylor vs. #16 Nicholls/Texas Southern
- #8 San Francisco vs. #9 Belmont
- #5 Alabama vs. #12 TCU/Memphis
- #4 Duke vs. #13 UAB
- #3 PURDUE vs. #14 Vermont
- #6 Loyola(Chi) vs. #11 Miami
- #7 Texas vs. #10 MINNESOTA
- #2 UCLA vs. #15 Texas State
MIDWEST
- #1 Auburn vs. #16 Winthrop/Howard
- #8 Connecticut vs. #9 Wake Forest
- #5 Iowa State vs. #12 Murray State/Marquette
- #4 OHIO STATE vs. #13 Oakland
- #3 MICHIGAN STATE vs. #14 Toledo
- #6 Seton Hall vs. #11 Chattanooga
- #7 Colorado State vs. #10 IOWA
- #2 Kansas vs. #15 Towson
EAST
- #1 LSU vs. #16 Liberty
- #8 BYU vs. #9 Oklahoma
- #5 Tennessee vs. #12 Iona
- #4 Xavier vs. #13 Wagner
- #3 WISCONSIN vs. #14 Navy
- #6 West Virginia vs. #11 Ohio
- #7 North Carolina vs. #10 INDIANA
- #2 Villanova vs. #15 Princeton
WEST
- #1 Arizona vs. #16 Weber State
- #8 Kentucky vs. #9 San Diego State
- #5 Providence vs. #12 Texas A&M
- #4 Gonzaga vs. #13 NM State
- #3 Houston vs. #14 South Dakota State
- #6 Texas Tech vs. #11 Saint Mary's
- #7 ILLINOIS vs. #10 Davidson
- #2 USC vs. #15 UC Irvine
NIT
LARAMIE
- #1 Wyoming vs. #8 UC Davis
- #4 Colorado vs. #5 Saint Louis
- #3 Central Florida vs. #6 Virginia Tech
- #2 Louisville vs. #7 Louisiana
OMAHA
- #1 Creighton vs. #8 UNC Wilmington
- #4 Virginia vs. #5 Stanford
- #3 Florida vs. #6 Cleveland State
- #2 Notre Dame vs. #7 Texas A&M-CC
RUSTON
- #1 Louisiana Tech vs. #8 Norfolk State
- #4 Florida State vs. #5 South Carolina
- #3 Oklahoma State vs. #6 Fresno State
- #2 St. Bonaventure vs. #7 TUNC Asheville
RICHMOND
- #1 VCU vs. #8 Southern
- #4 Boise State vs. #5 Monmouth
- #3 Mississippi State vs. #6 MICHIGAN
- #2 Clemson vs. #7 Jacksonville
Big Ten team who made neither...
- Rutgers is the 8th team out of the NIT
- Penn State is the 9th
- Northwestern is the 12th
- Maryland is the 15th
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How is Nova a 2 seed?
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How is Nova a 2 seed?
#13 in SOR and #5 in KenPom.
I did also realize I accidentally sorted KenPom to be the tiebreaker instead of SOR, so really, MSU should be the final 2 seed, and Villanova the top 3 seed, but either way, they come up as the #8/#9 overall team
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Man, their losses are just ugly though.
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Yeah, by a lot. To be fair you did present it as basically a worst case scenario.
In the tiers system we now project them to go 16-4/25-5. I'd definitely take the under on that. Nothing against Wisconsin but typically tier-1 teams tend to get upset more than the pull off upsets simply because they have a LOT more opportunities to get upset.
With respect to the tOSU@UW game on Thursday I have no idea what to expect. At their best the Buckeyes are the team that beat Dook and blew out Wisconsin in Columbus but since the Holidays and their COVID pause the Buckeyes haven't looked very good:
- They needed OT against Nebraska,
- They got run out of the gym in Bloomington, and
- They scored LOTS of points but defended poorly and turned the ball over about a gazillion times such that they only barely beat Northwestern at home.
Meanwhile Wisconsin obviously looked terrible in Columbus and they had uncomfortably close wins after that over Nicholls and Illinois State but since the calendar flipped to 2022 the Badgers have been on fire with the huge win at Purdue and wins over Iowa (home) and Maryland (away).
I also think that the next three for UW as a whole, are better than a toss-up. Per ESPN:
- 61.8% to beat tOSU at home
- 45.7% to beat NU on the road
- 58.4% to beat MSU at home
The tiers say 3-0 and 2-1 wouldn't shock me but if UW goes 1-2 I'd be surprised and if they were to go 0-3 I'd wonder what went wrong.
I mean, I don't think they'll go 0-3 the next 3, but I could see it. They had a worse chance of going 3-0 across the past three.
As said, I use the projections, not the tiers. So 2-1 or 1-2 is most likely. UW's been running a little hot of late, catching two good teams at home, one solid one on the road. The thing is, even if they did go 0-3, I wouldn't find myself terribly worried.
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Composite Computer Rankings (last week in parenthesis) - 43 computers
- Baylor (1)
- Auburn (5)
- Arizona (2)
- LSU (9)
- Gonzaga (3)
- Kansas (4)
- Houston (8)
- PURDUE (6)
- USC (10)
- Villanova (13)
- UCLA (14)
- MICHIGAN STATE (12)
- Duke (7)
- Xavier (19)
- ILLINOIS (20)
- Alabama (11)
- Tennessee (16)
- OHIO STATE (15)
- WISCONSIN (-)
- Kentucky (18)
- Texas (17)
- Loyola(Chi) (24)
- Seton Hall (-)
- Connecticut (23)
- Texas Tech (25)
- 29. Indiana (39)
- 31. Iowa (29)
- 54. Michigan (38)
- 60. Minnesota (43)
- 75. Northwestern (66)
- 78. Penn State (90)
- 89. Maryland (70)
- 93. Rutgers (114)
- 179. Nebraska (165)
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Results last night were as projected so no changes.
In Lunardi's latest Bracketology we are down to seven teams in with none of those seven "one the bubble" and two teams barely out (Minnesota is the first team out and Michigan is the sixth team out). Lunardi's projections:
- #2 PU
- #3 MSU
- #4 UW, IL
- #5 tOSU
- #8 IU
- #9 IA
Based on past results by seed, on average those seeds would result in:
- 5 teams in the R32
- 2.57 teams in the S16
- 1.15 teams in the E8
- 0.59 teams in the F4
- 0.24 teams in the NC
- 0.08 National Champions
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Titus & Tate (The Fox Sports College Basketball Podcast) spent the whole first segment going off on how many "coincidences" there seem to be where Michigan seems to have a COVID outbreak right before a big game, and leaning into the Juwan Howard the Duck nickname. Half tongue in cheek, half it's getting weird
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Greg Gard picking a good year to have a year to exceed expectations, considering how Lamont Paris is doing at Chattanooga. They are a top 60 KenPom team now
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Greg Gard picking a good year to have a year to exceed expectations, considering how Lamont Paris is doing at Chattanooga. They are a top 60 KenPom team now
Good for Lamont. Though Gard was gonna need a highly rough year for that to matter.
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MSU is not that good. Their early Big Ten schedule has been a joke, and home Saturday vs. Northwestern doesn't change that
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Good for Lamont. Though Gard was gonna need a highly rough year for that to matter.
Also, tonight was not the night to post that apparently
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This OSU team is interesting to me. Their whole front court is shorter, thicker guys. Their best player is this 6-8, 245-pound rangy guy who can be a center, or power forward. They have a banger in Key, a kinda odd all over the place guy in Young, a wing shooter, a great freshman and a mess of guards.
They're still scorching on long 2s, but shoot more 3s this year. Good at getting to the line too. Interesting task for UW for sure.
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MSU is not that good. Their early Big Ten schedule has been a joke, and home Saturday vs. Northwestern doesn't change that
Can they trip up a week from Friday? Just for me?
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They should win at home against Northwestern this weekend to get to 6-0, then the schedule gets nasty. If they are 9-5 after 14,.I'll take it
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Bingham has been a shell of himself since returning from COVID. The defensive numbers have reflected that. This was not a particularly great defensive team, but.in basketball, athleticism and length can go a long way. This team leaned heavily into that, with a elite rim protector. Without him being that level at the back, the defense has looked very different
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This OSU team is interesting to me. Their whole front court is shorter, thicker guys. Their best player is this 6-8, 245-pound rangy guy who can be a center, or power forward. They have a banger in Key, a kinda odd all over the place guy in Young, a wing shooter, a great freshman and a mess of guards.
They're still scorching on long 2s, but shoot more 3s this year. Good at getting to the line too. Interesting task for UW for sure.
They are really loving the three point line this year, hitting 39% as a team. Only Key and Brunk won't shoot them - everyone else has the green light. The guard play has been inconsistent - Branham has come on of late, though on the road at the Kohl Center guarding Davis doesn't make me think he'll have a great time tonight.
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Also lost last night in the ending is that Eric Curry had to be helped off the court. He might be the most irreplaceable player on their team, and that could be a major blow if he's done, and it didn't look good
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They should win at home against Northwestern this weekend to get to 6-0, then the schedule gets nasty. If they are 9-5 after 14,.I'll take it
I think this is a really good illustration of why we do the tiers. It helps us to temper expectations when a team starts off 6-0 but has had an easy schedule and also helps us to not lose sight of a hypothetical good team that starts out 2-4 on a really tough schedule.
Michigan State so far this year is a good example, their games so far:
- 12/8 at MN, tier-3
- 12/11 vs PSU, tier-3
- 1/2 at NU, tier-3
- 1/5 vs UNL, tier-5
- 1/12 vs MN, tier-3
- 1/15 vs NU, tier-3
Assuming they win this weekend they'll be 6-0 but that is on four home games and only two road games all six will have been against teams in the bottom half of the conference. Then, as you pointed out, it gets much tougher:
- 1/21 at UW, tier-1
- 1/25 at IL, tier-1
- 1/29 vs M, tier-3
- 2/1 at UMD, tier-3
- 2/5 at RU, tier-3
- 2/8 vs UW, tier-1
- 2/12 vs IU, tier-2
- 2/15 at PSU, tier-3
- 2/19 vs IL, tier-1
- 2/22 at IA, tier-2
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Michigan State's win over Minnesota in East Lansing last night was expected but Maryland's win over Northwestern in Evanston was not.
There really isn't any viable prediction system that would predict Northwestern and Maryland to split their series with each team winning on the road but that is exactly what happened.
That drops Northwestern's projected finish to 6-14 (13th place) and improves Maryland's projected finish to 7-13 (tied with MN and RU for 10th/11th/12th).
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Titus & Tate (The Fox Sports College Basketball Podcast) spent the whole first segment going off on how many "coincidences" there seem to be where Michigan seems to have a COVID outbreak right before a big game, and leaning into the Juwan Howard the Duck nickname. Half tongue in cheek, half it's getting weird
How likely are Michigan's games against PU and MSU to be rescheduled?
Looking at the remainder of the season:
- M and MSU both play on Tuesday, February 8 then again on Saturday, February 12. In theory they could play each other on Thursday, February 10 but that winds up as a pretty quick turn-around for both teams for the games before and after (at PSU, vs tOSU for M; vs UW, vs IU for MSU). It helps, however, that the two teams are close so there isn't a lot of travel time involved. It also helps that MSU's games before and after are both home games as is Michigan's game after.
- If Purdue's game at Northwestern (close geographically) on Wednesday, February 16 could get moved to Thursday (same as Michigan's game at Iowa) then PU and Michigan could play on Tuesday, February 15 but it would be a pretty quick turn-around on both ends for both teams.
As noted before, for purposes of the tier-based projections I'm treating both games as if they are NOT going to be played until I actually see them scheduled.
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The schedule looks tough. February 10 works, but if I'm MSU, I tell them no way. That I believe makes 4 games in 7 days for MSU, 3 on the road. I'm fine with doing away with the forfeit policy, but the non-COVID team should get to pick the makeup date.
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The schedule looks tough. February 10 works, but if I'm MSU, I tell them no way. That I believe makes 4 games in 7 days for MSU, 3 on the road. I'm fine with doing away with the forfeit policy, but the non-COVID team should get to pick the makeup date.
It ends up a mess for everybody involved for sure. If the league mandated what I suggested here, this is what MSU would end up with:
- 2/8 vs UW
- 2/10 at M
- 2/12 vs IU
- 2/15 at PSU
Purdue:
- 2/13 vs UMD
- 2/15 at M
- 2/17 at NU
Then there is Michigan:
- 2/8 at PSU
- 2/10 vs MSU
- 2/12 vs tOSU
- 2/15 vs PU
- 2/17 at Iowa
How exactly are these games being treated right now by the league? AFAIK the league considers them "postponed" so there is no forfeit because there is the intention to reschedule. Ok, what if they don't? At some point if they don't get rescheduled you either have to charge Michigan with a forfeit or just plan on Purdue and Michigan State playing only 19 league games while M plays only 18.
If they just don't play them that sucks for MSU and PU because they are projected to win. The projections right now have MSU finishing 15-4 which is 1/2 game behind the Buckeyes and Badgers. If the game is rescheduled then MSU would move into a projected tie for 2nd/3rd/4th.
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I'd rather they have to forfeit, honestly.
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No Meechie tonight for the Bucks
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No Meechie tonight for the Bucks
Young player, but he has probably done more harm than good so far this year. I'll be patient with him, but for this one game, it's probably better that he's out.
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Young player, but he has probably done more harm than good so far this year. I'll be patient with him, but for this one game, it's probably better that he's out.
Yeah he's been pretty rough. Also helps they have Sotos as another backup PG
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I forgot how feisty Wheeler is.
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Buckeyes playing just terribly tonight, maybe the worst performance yet this season. Though as a bit of game theory, I suppose it's good to save your bad performances for the road against good teams. About the only positive I can take.
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Buckeyes playing just terribly tonight, maybe the worst performance yet this season. Though as a bit of game theory, I suppose it's good to save your bad performances for the road against good teams. About the only positive I can take.
UW had some real weird crappy moments in there, but lord has OSU played awful. Weird game, UW ran up a lead, has mostly led comfortably, but can't quite hit the Bucks in the head with a shovel to finish it. Also, Johnny Davis is just playing awful.
Also, Kyle Young is odd to me. He in theory can shoot, but they don't want him to. He's kinda a smaller, mobile 4 who can let Liddell play center. But he just seems kinda there in an uninteresting way.
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UW had some real weird crappy moments in there, but lord has OSU played awful. Weird game, UW ran up a lead, has mostly led comfortably, but can't quite hit the Bucks in the head with a shovel to finish it. Also, Johnny Davis is just playing awful.
Also, Kyle Young is odd to me. He in theory can shoot, but they don't want him to. He's kinda a smaller, mobile 4 who can let Liddell play center. But he just seems kinda there in an uninteresting way.
Yeah the game was somewhat competitive solely because Davis played poorly. He puts in an average game and this is a laugher.
And hey I'm in the Kyle Young fan club. He can generate offense near the basket and shoot threes if he's open. He is coming off an illness though and still getting healthy.
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With that UW could lose every game but the ones it's a large-scale favorite in and still go to the dance.
They've also got five where they project to be favored by 4 or less, four games as underdogs.
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And hey I'm in the Kyle Young fan club. He can generate offense near the basket and shoot threes if he's open. He is coming off an illness though and still getting healthy.
I'm not saying he's bad. I guess I'm saying he looks like he should be doing more.
But I'm also a UW fan, so squat power forwards who are efficent but don't do that much are usually a favorite of mine.
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But I'm also a UW fan, so squat power forwards who are efficent but don't do that much are usually a favorite of mine.
Which means you either love Mason Gillis, or you hate him because he's not on your team :57:
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Which means you either love Mason Gillis, or you hate him because he's not on your team :57:
I never thought of him as a power forward, really, mostly becuase I've not thought enough about their lineup construction and the state of Purdue's forward position feels weird. (It's like one-third Furst, the rest a mix of 6-6 guys in the 215-230 range?)
In any case, Gillis. He's got good Badger ties and when UW played them, I kept having to yell "DON'T LEAVE THAT MFer OPEN!" as the team simply refused to listen. So for now, we'll put more in the love than hate camp.
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The only result this week that did not match our projections was Maryland's win at Northwestern but that simply cancelled out Northwestern's win at Maryland back in December.
For review the tiers are:
- IL+1, UW+1, tOSU, MSU, PU-2
- IU, IA-1
- PSU+1, MN+1, RU+1, UMD (even, +1-1), M-1, NU -1 (+1, -2)
- blank
- UNL
As stated before, for the time being I am treating the Michigan games against PU and MSU as "not to be played". I'll update that when some official word comes down as to if/when they are going to be rescheduled. Thus, right now Michigan is projected to play 18 total league games while Purdue and MSU are projected to play 19 and everybody else is projected to play 20.
Upsets so far are:
(https://i.imgur.com/vNoRdgF.png)
Projected final standings/BTT seeds:
- 17-3/25-6 Illinois
- 16-4/22-6 Ohio State (wins tie with UW based on record against MSU, no game in E. Lansing)
- 16-4/25-5 Wisconsin
- 15-4/24-6 Michigan State
- 12-7/23-7 Purdue
- 11-9/20-10 Indiana
- 10-10/20-11 Iowa
- 8-12/13-15 Penn State
- 7-13/15-16 Maryland (wins tie with MN and RU based on H2H2H, no game in Minneapolis)
- 7-13/16-13 Minnesota (second in tie with UMD and RU based on H2H2H, no game in Piscataway, doesn't host UMD)
- 7-13/13-17 Rutgers
- 6-12/12-18 Michigan
- 6-14/13-16 Northwestern
- 0-20/6-25 Nebraska
Thus the BTT match-ups in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:
- #11 Rutgers vs #14 Nebraska, 830pm, BTN
- #12 Michigan vs #13 Northwestern, 6pm, BTN
Thursday, March 10, 2022:
- #5 Purdue vs M/NU, 230pm, BTN
- #6 Indiana vs RU/UNL, 9pm, BTN
- #7 Iowa vs #10 Minnesota, 630pm, BTN
- #8 Penn State vs #9 Maryland, noon, BTN
Friday, March 11, 2022:
- #1 Illinois vs PSU/UMD, noon, BTN
- #2 Ohio State vs IA/MN, 630pm, BTN
- #3 Wisconsin vs IU/RU/UNL, 9pm, BTN
- #4 Michigan State vs PU/M/NU, 230pm, BTN
Saturday, March 12, 2022:
- IL/PSU/UMD vs MSU/PU/M/NU, 1pm, CBS
- tOSU/IA/MN vs UW/IU/RU/UNL, 330pm, CBS
Sunday, March 13, 2022:
- IL/PSU/UMD/MSU/PU/M/NU vs tOSU/IA/MN/UW/IU/RU/UNL, 330pm, CBS
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In case anyone wants to see the mechanics behind how I track this, here it is:
(https://i.imgur.com/07voHGJ.png)
Columns:
- Team: duh. Illinois for the first row.
- noAwayx3: These are the three teams that the team on that row does not visit. tOSU, UW, and PSU for the Illini.
- noHomex3: These are the three teams that the team on that line does not host. IU, MN, and UNL for the Illini.
- RR-W: Projected wins on a full double-round-robin schedule. For the Illini and all teams in tier-1 this is 20 (two each against the teams in tier-3 and tier-5 and one each against the teams in tier-2 and the other four teams in tier-1.
- RR-L: Projected losses on a full double-round-robin schedule. For the Illini and all teams in tier-1 this is 6 (one each against the other four teams in tier-1 and the two teams in tier-2).
- miss-W: Projected # of wins in the games not played. For the Illini this is four, all three home games and the road game at Penn State.
- miss-L: Projected # of losses in the games not played. For the Illini this is two, the road games in Columbus and Madison.
- Proj-W: RR-W minus miss-W. For the Illini this is 16 (20-4).
- Proj-L: RR-L minus miss-L. For the Illini this is 4 (6-2).
- RR%: Projected winning percentage in a full double-round-robin. For the Illini this is .769.
- Proj%: Projected winning percentage in the games actually on the schedule. For the Illini this is .800.
- Diff: The difference between the prior to columns. For the Illini this is .031. This is a rough measure of how favorable or unfavorable of a schedule each team has with the Illini, Buckeyes, and Spartans having the most favorable schedules while the Gophers and Scarlet Knights have the most unfavorable schedules.
- +Var: Positive upsets: For the Illini this is one, their win in Iowa City.
- -Var: Negative upsets. For the Illini this is none.
- Var: The net of the prior two columns.
- Conf-W: Projected conference wins after accounting for upsets. For the Illini, 17.
- Conf-L: Projected conference losses after accounting for upsets. For the Illini, 3.
- OOC-W: Out of Conference wins. For the Illini this is 8.
- OOC-L: Out of Conference losses. For the Illini this is 3.
- Team: A repeat of the first column.
- ProjT-W: Total of projected conference and OOC wins. For the Illini this is 25.
- ProjT-L: Total of projected conference and OOC losses. For the Illini this is 6.
- Chk: Check figure. To the right of all of this I have a schedule grid with actual (for the games already played) and projected (for the scheduled games not yet played) results which generates the results in the following two columns. This "Check Figure" column exists to check my work by making sure that those columns match the previous two.
- ProjC-W: Same as Conf-W but calculated from the schedule grid rather than the prior columns. For the Illini this is 17.
- ProjC-L: Same as Conf-L but calculated from the schedule grid rather than the prior columns. For the Illini this is 3.
The "1"'s in the Check figure column for MSN and Purdue are because their calculated and schedule grid figures currently do NOT match because the calculations assume that they WILL play the PPD Michigan game while the schedule grid assumes that they will NOT play the PPD Michigan game.
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Interesting. thanks for the share.
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Review of tiebreakers (https://bigten.org/news/2021/11/12/2022-mens-basketball-tournament-tiebreaker-procedures.aspx):
Two-team tie:
- H2H
- Record vs the best team(s) in the league, then the next, etc. (compare against all tied teams and 2-0 IS better than 3-1 but NOT better than 1-0 or 0-0).
- Overall winning percentage.
- Coin toss.
Multiple team tie:
- H2H . . . 2H
- Record vs the best team(s) in the league, then the next, etc. (same as above)
- Overall winning percentage.
- Coin toss.
Note:
With multiple team ties if any one or group is separated (from the top, middle, or bottom) at any level, that separation is final. Then the rest of the teams move to the next tiebreaker (not back to their own H2H).
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I never thought of him as a power forward, really, mostly becuase I've not thought enough about their lineup construction and the state of Purdue's forward position feels weird. (It's like one-third Furst, the rest a mix of 6-6 guys in the 215-230 range?)
In any case, Gillis. He's got good Badger ties and when UW played them, I kept having to yell "DON'T LEAVE THAT MFer OPEN!" as the team simply refused to listen. So for now, we'll put more in the love than hate camp.
Yeah, I guess the best way to say it is that he plays "the 4".
I'm not sure how many college 4s really approach what the NBA would call a power forward. Heck, I'm not sure how many NBA teams still have a "power forward" in the traditional sense. Draymond Green might be the one that comes first to mind.
Purdue's lineup construction is that typically they're playing 3 guards, a forward, and a giant. Depending on their roster, that 4 spot is typically more like an oversized guard, or is an undersized ("squat") power forward. It's not often that we get someone like Caleb Swanigan who looks like a true "power forward" and can play small ball center in a pinch. Caleb Furst might be that guy currently. Vince Edwards, and Robbie Hummel were a little more like oversized guards, whereas Gillis and Grady Eifert were a little shorter and stouter. The other guy currently on the team (and not redshirting) who backs up the 4 spot is Ethan Morton, who has the size and length to defend the 4 spot, but offensively is more of a slightly oversized guard/wing.
But since you were referring to a "squat power forward", I figured Gillis fit that description of "squat"... Defends bigger players through his strength and toughness because he doesn't have the overwhelming height. Looks like he could equally play on the gridiron as the hardcourt.
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Purdue handled Nebraska last night with ease.
Which tells us nothing about either team. If it had been close, or Nebraska had won, then there'd be something to talk about.
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it's embarrassing for the mayor
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Power ranking for only January
4. Wisconsin
11. Illinois
21. Purdue
29. Rutgers
31. Penn State
32. Indiana
62. MSU
70. Iowa
71. Maryland
86. OSU
115. Northwestern
142. Minnesota
167. Nebraska
210. Michigan
Was looking at this just from OSU's return on 1/2. Their defense looked really bad, which shows up in the stats - 189th in defensive efficiency. Also, tomorrow's game against PSU suddenly looking intimidating.
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it's embarrassing for the mayor
How much longer does he have there?
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How much longer does he have there?
With his buyout, at least one more year, I think.
He has five years on his deal after this, including a one-year extension the school didn't publicize. He get's $3.5 mil a year, and if he's fired, it's all paid out, plus two retention bonuses of $1 million per year.
Oh for a Tim Miles
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I liked Tim Miles
but, I thought the Mayor would be an upgrade in the win/ loss
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Flipped on NW-MSU and the first think I saw was the face of a player who could not look more Northwestern. They zoomed out and it turned out he was a lot larger than your average NW player, but still has the look.
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I liked Tim Miles
but, I thought the Mayor would be an upgrade in the win/ loss
He won 42 percent of his NBA games.
He's at 26 at Nebraska. No 'Huskers coach has ever lost games at a higher clip.
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Was Fred an a-hole Alberts hire?
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Was Fred an a-hole Alberts hire?
No. The old guy. Not sure if the extra year was his.
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no, Moos
2019 hire
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I don't think MSU finishes within 5 games of first place
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I don't think MSU finishes within 5 games of first place
Scratch that, I don't think they finish over .500 in Big Ten play. This is the anti-Izzo team. They actually looked really good in November. Lost to a pair of top 5 teams, but beat a pair of ranked teams, plus a couple other tourney teams, and a pair of top 100 KenPom mid-majors. They had a week off after the Oakland game, 4 guys caught COVID, and they have looked awful for 5 games since. They are lucky the schedule has been a joke, and are still lucky to get through it 4-1. Needed a buzzer beater to beat Minnesota at home, followed by a home loss to Northwestern, missing their best player
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Wow.
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First, I love the way ELA interfaces with that team.
Second, oooo, those refs were giving a helping hand something fierce.
Third, NW had better baseline numbers than that record. Projected as a tossup vs UW in Evanston, but didn't see a win in EL coming.
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The only loss to a non-tournament team in that 4-9 Big Ten start last year was road at Northwestern, and included a blowout win against #15 Rutgers at home. The other 8 losses were to tournament teams, 5 of which were on the road.
Right now there is no way you pick this team to beat last years team on a neutral court. The November version? Sure. This version? No way. Sam posted the KenPom numbers BEFORE this game, they were #62 in the nation during January, they probably are outside the top 80 now
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I absolutely hate it when UW has to go to Evanston. This time will be no different.
This UW team does like rock fights, so maybe they'll be OK. I see a loss coming, anyway.
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Northwestern hit a ton of contested 3s in the first half that kept them in it, but too many turnovers (per usual), and getting killed on the offensive glass (ouch), results in this
https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/1482440495330594818?s=20
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I absolutely hate it when UW has to go to Evanston. This time will be no different.
This UW team does like rock fights, so maybe they'll be OK. I see a loss coming, anyway.
It's been pretty good for UW of late.
That said, NW has played well below it's computer rankings (today helped that), which usually means more dangerous than the record. Numbers have them closer to 11-4 vs a decent but not great schedule.
UW has won three tough tossups in a row after that massive upset. Quants have it as about a 50-50 game. Hope UW keeps it's stuff up. (Also, Michigan is doing its damndest to make that trip to Madison a solid "should win" for the Badgers. Up to 5-6 for the projected line, though their talent still concerns me)
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Crazy day Saturday!
Not only did both B1G games result in upsets but there were a ton of ranked teams that got knocked off.
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Ugh, Zed Key with what looks like an ankle or something. OSU deep this year, but missing four guys in your rotation not helpful.
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Key is back
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I don't think MSU finishes within 5 games of first place
Nope, you heard it here first, this is what will happen:
- The league will decide that the M/PU and M/MSU games cannot be rescheduled.
- The league will announce that the missed games will just be treated as not played.
- MSU and Purdue will finish 1/2 a game out of first place.
- The Juwan Howard The Duck meme will never die because fans of Purdue and Michigan State will never forgive Michigan for costing them a league title by canceling the games
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Not a beautiful display of basketball in Columbus
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(https://i.imgur.com/CZbXDh1.png)
Connor McCaffery tweeted after the game that “all 3 refs should be embarrassed to continue falling for this (expletive) … do something about it @bigten — comical at this point.”
At least McCaffery was smart enough to delete his tweet. Or someone at Iowa was smart enough to instruct him to do so.
The same can’t be said for Iowa sixth-year senior guard Jordan Bohannon, who was bickering with a reporter who covers UW (not me) on Twitter the day after the Hawkeyes’ loss to the Badgers. Bohannon thought it was laughable that the reporter compared the Patrick McCaffery foul on Davison to a controversial foul call on D’Mitrik Trice against Bohannon that led to three critical points late in the host Hawkeyes’ 77-73 victory over UW in the 2020-21 regular-season finale.
From there, Bohannon dropped a bomb: “From the Big Ten head of officials, Brad Davidson (sic) has been a ‘Marked Guy in the league’ for the past three years.”
More than a week later, that post is still there to see for Bohannon’s 31,000-plus followers. And for Rick Boyages, the Big Ten vice president of men’s basketball and coordinator of men’s basketball officials, to see.
The two questions I immediately had after seeing Bohannon’s tweet: Is Boyages really telling people at Iowa, or elsewhere in the Big Ten, that Davison is a “marked guy in the league?” Because if that’s the case, it’s wholly inappropriate and something Warren needs to address.
The Big Ten denied Friday morning that Boyages had said that to Bohannon or anyone at Iowa.
So if those words didn’t come out of Boyages’ mouth, then why was Bohannon not suspended or publicly reprimanded for making that claim?
Either scenario damages the integrity of the Big Ten. When the conference suspended Davison in 2020, it cited the Big Ten Sportsmanship Policy, which in part states in its second sentence that “the Big Ten Conference expects all contests involving a member institution to be conducted without compromise to any fundamental element of sportsmanship. Such fundamental elements include integrity of the competition, civility toward all, and respect, particularly toward opponents and officials.”
Seems to me Connor McCaffery and Bohannon weren’t being all that civil with Davison or the three officials — Kelly Pfeifer, Don Daily and Brian Dorsey — who worked that game.
The same policy later states that while it “will apply most commonly to actions that occur within or around the competitive arena, the scope of its application is intentionally left unrestricted in order to accommodate any behavior, which may occur in any setting, deemed by the Commissioner to offend the underlying objective this policy seeks to achieve.”
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Hell of a game
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It was, until the foul festival.
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Illini picked a bad time to go cold from the line
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Purdue couldn't miss.
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Wow...... Not how I expected that game script to go.
I thought, "get Cockburn AND his backup into foul trouble, and it should be a cakewalk from there!", and then that actually just opened up Illinois' offense.
Instead, Purdue was doing extremely well against Cockburn--he matched up very poorly with Edey. Then after Cockburn sat, everything got much tougher sledding.
Glad Purdue pulled it out... They had plenty of chances to give it up.
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Since my last update there were a slew of upsets. For review, the tiers are:
- IL even(+1,-1), tOSU, UW+1, MSU-1, PU-1(+1,-2)
- IU, IA even(+1,-1)
- PSU+1, RU+2, NU even(+2,-2), MN even(+1,-1), UMD-1(+1,-2), M-1
- blank
- UNL
The upsets so far are:
(https://i.imgur.com/NXql3kc.png)
Note, when listing the tiers if a team has no upsets I put nothing after them. If they have offsetting upsets I put "even" then explain it (see IL for an example). If they have upsets I put a number after a +/- as appropriate. If their upsets are all one way I stop there but if explanation is needed, I give it.
All teams are within +/-1 except Rutgers who is +2 with upsets over PU at home and UMD on the road.
The current projected final standings and BTT seeds are:
- 16-4/25-5 Illinois (wins tie over tOSU and UW based on H2H2H, no games in Columbus or Madison).
- 16-4/23-6 Ohio State (loses tie with IL based on H2H2H, wins tie with UW based on record against MSU, no game in E. Lansing)
- 16-4/25-5 Wisconsin
- 14-5/24-7 Michigan State
- 13-6/25-6 Purdue
- 11-9/21-10 Iowa (wins tie with IU based on H2H, no game in Bloomington)
- 11-9/20-10 Indiana
- 8-12/14-16 Rutgers (wins tie with PSU based on record against the Purdue)
- 8-12/13-15 Penn State
- 7-13/14-15 Northwestern
- 6-12/12-18 Michigan
- 6-14/14-17 Maryland (wins tie with MN based on H2H, no game in Minneapolis)
- 6-14/15-14 Minnesota
- 0-20/6-25 Nebraska
Thus the match-ups at the B1G Tournament in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:
- #11 Michigan vs #14 Nebraska, 830pm, BTN
- #12 Maryland vs #13 Minnesota, 6pm, BTN
Thursday, March 10, 2022:
- #5 Purdue vs UMD/MN, 230pm, BTN
- #6 Iowa vs M/UNL, 230pm, BTN
- #7 Indiana vs #10 Northwestern, 630pm, BTN
- #8 Rutgers vs #9 Penn State, noon, BTN
Friday, March 11, 2022:
- #1 Illinois vs RU/PSU, noon, BTN
- #2 Ohio State vs IU/NU, 630pm, BTN
- #3 Wisconsin vs IA/M/UNL, 9pm, BTN
- #4 Michigan State vs PU/UMD/MN, 230pm, BTN
Saturday, March 12, 2022:
- IL/RU/PSU vs MSU/PU/UMD/MN, 1pm, CBS
- tOSU/IU/NU vs UW/IA/M/UNL, 330pm, CBS
Sunday, March 13, 2022:
- IL/RU/PSU/MSU/PU/UMD/MN vs tOSU/IU/NU/UW/IA/M/UNL, 330pm, CBS
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As noted above, Rutgers is the only team outside of +/-1. They are at +2 with upsets over tier-1 PU at home and tier-3 UMD on the road. The road win over UMD would be an upset even if we moved them up but the home win over PU would NOT be an upset if we moved them up. Should we?
Well, the difference between tier-3 and tier-2 is the projected result in home games against tier-1 teams. For Rutgers those games are:
- vs PU, W on 12/9
- vs MSU, 2/5
- vs tOSU, 2/9
- vs IL, 2/16
- vs UW, 2/26
Rutgers is 1-0 in these games with four to play. I *THINK* we should move them up but what do others think?
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OSU practicing violence. Good god.
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OSU practicing violence. Good god.
Perhaps the worst team in basketball has an open date? Let's get them in here!
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Perhaps the worst team in basketball has an open date? Let's get them in here!
Per KenPom, that was the third-worst. That was a 46-point loss. IUPUI didn't move down in KenPom. OSU only moved up three spots.
That is extremely difficult to do.
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Badgers with another tossup win. Never got too hairy. NW is better than that record, but it doesn't really matter.
I'm obviously a stats guy, and it's making this year extra enjoyable. I can hold in my head that a stats system suggests my team will either even out or dip some with the idea that some teams just out perform or have the numbers catch up. Each toss-up, I guess might be a little regression, so each becomes a nice moment.
If UW can beat MSU in Madison (not always easy, though this might be an interesting one), it has two VERY winnable ones after ahead of a trip to Illinois. 8-2 or 9-1 would not look bad halfway through league play.
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Welp, Iowa loses at Rutgers. Ugly game.
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Just an FYI, we have no had three games impacting five teams "postponed" due to COVID:
- MSU @ M scheduled for 1/8
- PU @ M scheduled for 1/11
- MN @ PSU scheduled for 1/19
I have not seen anything official about rescheduling and the schedules listed on the worldwide leader's site do NOT show rescheduled games.
For the time being in our tier-based projections I am treating these games as "not to be played". Thus, we currently project MSU, PU, MN, and PSU to play 19 league games each while M plays 18 and everybody else plays the originally scheduled 20. That creates some goofy finishes:
- 14-5: MSU is projected to finish 1-1/2 games behind UW/IL/tOSU and one game ahead of:
- 13-6: PU is projected to finish 1 game behind MSU (who also has 19 games) and 2-1/2 games ahead of IA/IU.
- 7-12: PSU is projected to finish 1/2 game behind RU and 1/2 game ahead of NU.
- 6-13: MN is projected to finish 1/2 game behind NU and 1/2 game ahead of UMD.
- 6-12: M is projected to finish with the same amount of wins as MN and UMD but ahead of both due to having one less loss than the Gophers and two fewer losses than the Terps.
If anyone sees anything about official rescheduled dates let me know and I'll update the projections accordingly.
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POTFH!
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I know tonight's game is a big deal for at least @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) ! Purdue travels to Bloomington and is favored by 3.5.
Purdue, of course, was up to #1 at one point and is still top-5. Their road win at Illinois on Monday looks great but the losses at home to UW and on the road to RU do show some chinks in the armor. They aren't unbeatable.
For their part the Hoosiers have looked very good even if not as good as Purdue. Their four losses are:
- At Syracuse in OT.
- At Wisconsin by 5.
- At Penn State by 3.
- At Iowa by 9.
None of those are particularly embarrassing. Syracuse and Penn State aren't great but both of those losses were very close and note that all four were on the road. The Hoosiers haven't lost in Bloomington since losing to #3 Michigan on February 27, 2021.
That makes this an intriguing match-up to me. I could see it going either way. We project an IU win but that is only due to this being a home game for them.
Purdue is probably the best team in the league and when they are playing at their best there is no doubt about that. They are #5 in BPI (next best is #11 IL), and #4 in both the AP and coaches polls (UW is next best in both at #8). Despite that the Boilermakers are currently 1-1/2 games behind co-leaders UW and IL, 1 game behind MSU, and 1/2 game behind tOSU/RU and they still have some very tough road games remaining (@UW, @MSU).
Purdue's next two road games will tell us a lot about how the Boilermakers will fare in the league. They are in Bloomington tonight then in Iowa City a week from tonight. Both are projected losses in our tier system but we acknowledge that PU is better than IU and IA, we just project losses in these games due to location. If Purdue loses these two that will give them four league losses. At that point they would likely need to win out to even tie for the league title so their margin for error would be gone before January ended and it just isn't very likely that they could get through all of February and a couple games in March without losing somewhere along the way. OTOH, if they win both their projected finish would improve to 15-4 which is only 1/2 game out of first (UW/IL/tOSU all at 16-4).
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POTFH!
I had to google it, found two definitions. The first was "Pounce On The Fighting Hoosiers" while the second was not fit to be shared here. I assume you meant the latter.
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I had to google it, found two definitions. The first was "Pounce On The Fighting Hoosiers" while the second was not fit to be shared here. I assume you meant the latter.
Oh, definitely the latter.
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Purdue is probably the best team in the league and when they are playing at their best there is no doubt about that. They are #5 in BPI (next best is #11 IL), and #4 in both the AP and coaches polls (UW is next best in both at #8). Despite that the Boilermakers are currently 1-1/2 games behind co-leaders UW and IL, 1 game behind MSU, and 1/2 game behind tOSU/RU and they still have some very tough road games remaining (@UW, @MSU).
Purdue's next two road games will tell us a lot about how the Boilermakers will fare in the league. They are in Bloomington tonight then in Iowa City a week from tonight. Both are projected losses in our tier system but we acknowledge that PU is better than IU and IA, we just project losses in these games due to location. If Purdue loses these two that will give them four league losses. At that point they would likely need to win out to even tie for the league title so their margin for error would be gone before January ended and it just isn't very likely that they could get through all of February and a couple games in March without losing somewhere along the way. OTOH, if they win both their projected finish would improve to 15-4 which is only 1/2 game out of first (UW/IL/tOSU all at 16-4).
Purdue's question is defense. I believe that when they can play defense, they can beat anyone in the country. But... We haven't seen it much.
Purdue can get lost on the perimeter over-helping, and if the opponent gets hot from deep when getting open looks, it can be ugly.
I don't worry about Tredey. Our bigs can handle anyone, as they showed with Kofi. The problem is that when an opponent abandons the paint and beats us on the outside, well, it's possible to exploit that. That's my concern with IU. They don't have ANY ability to battle us in the paint. If they simply work the perimeter, though, they've got a shot.
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TJD had the worst game, until the last ten seconds
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That was... Infuriating.
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I moved Rutgers up to tier-2 because otherwise they have two positive upsets (vs PU and at UMD). With them in tier-2 there is one less upset overall and now all teams are within +/-1.
Tiers are:
- UW+1, IL even(+1,-1), tOSU, PU even(+1,-1), MSU-1
- RU+1, IA even(+1,-1), IU
- PSU+1, NU even(+2,-2), MN even(+1,-1), UMD-1(+1,-2), M-1
- blank
- UNL
Upsets so far have been:
(https://i.imgur.com/H0t8x14.png)
The projected final standings/BTT seeds are as follows:
- 15-5/23-8 Illinois (wins tie with UW based on H2H, no game in Madison)
- 15-5/24-6 Wisconsin
- 14-5/21-7 Ohio State
- 13-6/23-8 Michigan State (wins tie with PU based on H2H, no game in W. Lafayette)
- 13-6/25-6 Purdue
- 12-8/18-12 Rutgers
- 11-9/21-10 Iowa (wins tie with IU based on H2H, no game in Bloomington)
- 11-9/20-10 Indiana
- 7-12/13-15 Penn State
- 7-13/14-15 Northwestern
- 6-12/12-18 Michigan
- 6-13/15-14 Minnesota
- 5-14/14-17 Maryland
- 0-19/6-24 Nebraska
Based on that, the match-ups at the BTT in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:
- #11 Michigan vs #14 Nebraska, 830 BTN
- #12 Minnesota vs #13 Maryland, 6 BTN
Thursday, March 10, 2022:
- #5 Purdue vs MN/UMD, 230 BTN
- #6 Rutgers vs M/UNL, 9 BTN
- #7 Iowa vs #10 Northwestern, 630 BTN
- #8 Indiana vs #9 Penn State, noon BTN
Friday, March 11, 2022:
- #1 Illinois vs IU/PSU, noon BTN
- #2 Wisconsin vs IA/NU, 630 BTN
- #3 Ohio State vs RU/M/UNL, 9 BTN
- #4 Michigan State vs PU/MN/UMD, 230 BTN
Saturday, March 12, 2022:
- IL/IU/PSU vs MSU/PU/MN/UMD, 1 CBS
- UW/IA/NU vs tOSU/RU/M/UNL, 330 CBS
Sunday, March 13, 2022:
- IL/IU/PSU/MSU/PU/MN/UMD vs UW/IA/NU/tOSU/RU/M/UNL, 330 CBS
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All 14 teams have league games scheduled over the weekend (Friday through Sunday). Here are the seven games ranked by what I believe is roughly the closeness of the match-up:
- RU @ MN, Saturday noon on BTN
- MSU @ UW, Friday 9p on FS1
- IL @ UMD, Friday 7p on FS1
- M @ IU, Sunday 330p on CBS
- PSU @ IA, Saturday 430p on BTN
- NU @ PU, Sunday 1p on BTN
- UNL @ tOSU
Nevermind, game #7 above (UNL@tOSU) has apparently been postponed due to "health and safety protocols within the Husker program".
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Just an FYI, we have no had three games impacting five teams "postponed" due to COVID:
- MSU @ M scheduled for 1/8
- PU @ M scheduled for 1/11
- MN @ PSU scheduled for 1/19
I have not seen anything official about rescheduling and the schedules listed on the worldwide leader's site do NOT show rescheduled games.
For the time being in our tier-based projections I am treating these games as "not to be played". Thus, we currently project MSU, PU, MN, and PSU to play 19 league games each while M plays 18 and everybody else plays the originally scheduled 20. That creates some goofy finishes:
- 14-5: MSU is projected to finish 1-1/2 games behind UW/IL/tOSU and one game ahead of:
- 13-6: PU is projected to finish 1 game behind MSU (who also has 19 games) and 2-1/2 games ahead of IA/IU.
- 7-12: PSU is projected to finish 1/2 game behind RU and 1/2 game ahead of NU.
- 6-13: MN is projected to finish 1/2 game behind NU and 1/2 game ahead of UMD.
- 6-12: M is projected to finish with the same amount of wins as MN and UMD but ahead of both due to having one less loss than the Gophers and two fewer losses than the Terps.
If anyone sees anything about official rescheduled dates let me know and I'll update the projections accordingly.
Now there are four "postponed" games involving seven teams so half the conference is impacted. The UNL @ tOSU game scheduled for Saturday, January 22 has been postponed.
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Today is the day I would like ELA‘s pessimism to come to fruition. That is all
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Kofi out (in concussion protocol) against Maryland
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Now there are four "postponed" games involving seven teams so half the conference is impacted. The UNL @ tOSU game scheduled for Saturday, January 22 has been postponed.
Sounding like UW won't get to beat them on Tuesday either.
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Sounding like UW won't get to beat them on Tuesday either.
This is starting to REALLY confuse me because my projection spreadsheet because was designed to track teams that all played the same number of league games.
I built in a double-check that compares the calculated record with the projected record to catch any data-entry mistakes that I make but I don't have a column for "games not played" so right now my double-check column tells me that my projections are off for Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State, Penn State, Minnesota, Michigan, and Nebraska. That is already half the league and if UW/UNL gets "postponed" as well it will be up to eight out of 14. I think I'm going to have to add two columns for:
- Projected wins not played, and
- Projected losses not played.
That way I can get my double-check column working right again.
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I was wondering about that. Solution seems fair.
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I was wondering about that. Solution seems fair.
Ok, I added two new columns:
(https://i.imgur.com/4qP3w5l.png)
The 10th and 11th columns (miss-W and miss-L) are projected record in the six games of a double-round-robin not scheduled. The 12th and 13th columns (miss-W and miss-L again) are the new projected record in games not played due to COVID (or whatever I guess) columns.
A full double-round robin would be 182 games (totals of RR-W and RR-L). There are 42 games not scheduled which gets us down to 140 games scheduled (20 for each team) and so far four of those have been "postponed". AFAIK, none of the four have been rescheduled. That gets us down to 136 games to be played:
- 18 for M
- 19 for tOSU, PU, MSU, PSU, MN, and UNL
- 20 for UW, IL, RU, IA, IU, NU, UMD
I haven't seen anything official stating that UW/UNL will be "postponed" but if you do, please pass it along and I'll add it to the 12th and 13th columns. That would move Wisconsin into a projected tie with tOSU at 14-5. Wisconsin would win that tie based on their road win at Purdue (because that tie ends up being broken based on record against PU/MSU where tOSU would be 1-1 (home win over MSU, road loss to PU) and UW would be 3-1 (1-1 vs MSU, sweep of PU).
If and when any of these games get rescheduled I'll add them back to the projections and take them out of the "not played" columns.
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It's only speculation thus far, but many beat reporters are saying it won't be played.
I don't know how these can possibly be rescheduled without pushing back conference and NCAA tourneys.
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It's only speculation thus far, but many beat reporters are saying it won't be played.
I don't know how these can possibly be rescheduled without pushing back conference and NCAA tourneys.
Do not like losing free wins
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It's only speculation thus far, but many beat reporters are saying it won't be played.
I don't know how these can possibly be rescheduled without pushing back conference and NCAA tourneys.
It would definitely be tricky and end up resulting in the teams with rescheduled games playing a bunch of games on short turn-around times so at this point I'm treating them as "not to be played" until further notice.
Do not like losing free wins
This REALLY sucks for Ohio State and Wisconsin (assuming their game against Nebraska also gets cancelled). Nebraska is the worst team in the B1G by a large margin so the games cancelled for tOSU and UW are as close to a sure win as you can get.
MSU and PU lost games against Michigan that they would *probably* win but those were road games and Michigan has talent, they could win. Similarly, the PSU/MN game that was cancelled is basically a toss-up where we favor PSU only because they are the home team but the game could realistically go either way. That is not nearly as bad as losing a near sure win against literally the worst team in the league.
Worse, assuming UNL/UW is cancelled the tiers now project that the Buckeyes and Badgers will finish tied for 2nd/3rd in the league, 1/2 game behind the Illini. That may not play out but if it does the Nebraska cancellation will cost the Buckeyes and Badgers each a share of the league title :(
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Goodness, Maryland has some fire in it.
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Today is the day I would like ELA‘s pessimism to come to fruition. That is all
It has not.
UW is missing its second- or third-best player and just playing dreadfully. Was a day Johnny Davis needed to be feeling it and he is simply not.
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Welp, I figured UW was due for a clunker. Down a key player, they needed a dig-down toughness game and just did not deliver.
Just a shit rebounding performance.
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Considering we lost at home to Northwestern without Nance, I didn't think we had a chance on the road at Wisconsin, even without Wahl. Davis picked a nice night to be off, but continuing to force it. Davidson had a good game, glad his grandkids get to see him play.
Next at Illinois, maybe still without Cockburn. That seemed quite problematic for them last night.
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They had some graph on what teams had the most missed games due to injury. Illinois and OSU were near the top. Some bad luck in the conference this year
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It has not.
UW is missing its second- or third-best player and just playing dreadfully. Was a day Johnny Davis needed to be feeling it and he is simply not.
I had read that Wahl was going to play. We got home just before halftime and when he wasn't on the court, I said "no chance" and we went to bed shortly thereafter.
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Considering we lost at home to Northwestern without Nance, I didn't think we had a chance on the road at Wisconsin, even without Wahl. Davis picked a nice night to be off, but continuing to force it. Davidson had a good game, glad his grandkids get to see him play.
Next at Illinois, maybe still without Cockburn. That seemed quite problematic for them last night.
Who is Davidson?
I think you meant Jordan Bohannon, who is 24, and an asshole.
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Who is Davidson?
I think you meant Jordan Bohannon, who is 24, and an asshole.
hah, birds of a feather
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Considering we lost at home to Northwestern without Nance, I didn't think we had a chance on the road at Wisconsin, even without Wahl. Davis picked a nice night to be off, but continuing to force it. Davidson had a good game, glad his grandkids get to see him play.
Next at Illinois, maybe still without Cockburn. That seemed quite problematic for them last night.
Honestly, while he's had moments of forcing it, I wished he would more yesterday. The center and point guard didn't look in it, they were gonna need a big game from him to hold on.
Also defense. UW did not play it well and MSU was on one.
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FWIW, rumblings UW-Neb is moving to Thursday.
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Gophers managed to pull off a win against Rutgers despite being down three starters....including their leading scorer, Battle, and their third and fourth leading scorers. Six minutes played by the bench. Three guys played the entire 40 minutes.....including Treyton Thompson.....who had played a total of 27 minutes all year leading up to this game. Payton Willis tied the team record of eight threes....and that was on 13 total attempts. Ended up with 32 points.
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https://twitter.com/OhioStateHoops/status/1485019235302653952?s=20
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(https://i.imgur.com/tAklWk9.png)
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oh goody, another loss
well, at least UNL and the Haymarket bars and restaurants will make some bank
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Marquette beat two ranked teams this week
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We had three more upsets this weekend but even with that all teams are within +/-1 of the projections and actually 10 of the 14 are dead on. However, note that of those 10:
- 2 have no upsets (tOSU, UNL)
- 6 have one positive and one negative upset (MSU, UW, PU, IA, M, MN)
- 2 have two positive and two negative upsets (NU, UMD)
The other four teams are:
- +1 with a single positive upset (RU, PSU)
- -1 with a single negative upset (IU)
- -1 with a positive and two negative upsets (IL)
Here are all of the upsets so far:
(https://i.imgur.com/KDINlbz.png)
Here are the "postponed" games that, to my knowledge, have not been rescheduled:
(https://i.imgur.com/gvWEUNK.png)
Finally, here are the projected final standings/BTT seeds:
- 14-5/21-7 Ohio State (wins tie with MSU based on H2H, no game in E. Lansing)
- 14-5/23-7 Michigan State
- 14-6/23-7 Illinois (wins tie with UW based on H2H, no game in Madison)
- 14-6/23-7 Wisconsin
- 13-6/24-6 Purdue
- 12-8/18-12 Rutgers
- 11-9/21-10 Iowa
- 10-10/19-11 Indiana
- 7-11/13-15 Michigan
- 7-12/12-15 Penn State
- 7-13/14-15 Northwestern (wins tie with UMD based on record against the 14-5 teams)
- 7-13/15-16 Maryland
- 6-13/15-13 Minnesota
- 0-19/6-24 Nebraska
Thus, the BTT match-ups in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:
- #11 Northwestern vs #14 Nebraska, 830 BTN
- #12 Maryland vs #13 Minnesota, 6 BTN
Thursday, March 10, 2022:
- #5 Purdue vs UMD/MN, 230 BTN
- #6 Rutgers vs NU/UNL, 9 BTN
- #7 Iowa vs #10 Penn State, 630 BTN
- #8 Indiana vs #9 Michigan, noon BTN
Friday, March 11, 2022:
- #1 Ohio State vs IU/M, noon BTN
- #2 Michigan State vs IA/PSU, 630 BTN
- #3 Illinois vs RU/NU/UNL, 9 BTN
- #4 Wisconsin vs PU/UMD/MN, 230 BTN
Saturday, March 12, 2022:
- tOSU/IU/M vs UW/PU/UMD/MN, 1 CBS
- MSU/IA/PSU vs IL/RU/NU/UNL, 330 CBS
Sunday, March 13, 2022:
- tOSU/IU/M/UW/PU/UMD/MN vs MSU/IA/PSU/IL/RU/NU/UNL, 330 CBS
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Michigan suddenly showing signs of life
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Michigan suddenly showing signs of life
They are still the most talented team in the conference, give or take Purdue. Just have to overcome an inexperienced coach
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They are still the most talented team in the conference, give or take Purdue. Just have to overcome an inexperienced coach
I see them as the most unpredictable team in the league. Their home loss to Minnesota was BAD but at the same time their road win over IU would be very good even if it was close and it wasn't.
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I may be the only one, but when I look at the seed projections, one of the main things I want is for my team NOT to be #5. This has nothing to do with tournament performance it is simply that, as a fan, #5 is the hardest to watch:
- #1 plays at noon on Friday, then weekend games. I can take a late lunch on Friday for the first game and see the rest no problem.
- #2 plays Friday evening, then weekend games.
- #3 plays Friday evening, then weekend games.
- #4 plays at 2:30 on Friday, then weekend games. That 2:30 timeslot makes it tough to watch. It is too late for a late lunch and too early to leave early so I end up missing the game.
- #5 plays at 2:30 on Thursday then AGAIN at 2:30 on Friday, then weekend games. That just doubles up the crappy 2:30 timeslot.
- #6 plays Thursday and Friday evening then weekend games.
- #7 plays Thursday and Friday evening then weekend games.
- #8/9 play at noon Thursday and Friday, then weekend games. See #1 above.
- #10 plays Thursday and Friday evening then weekend games.
- #11 plays Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday evening games, then weekend games.
- #12/13 play Wednesday evening, Thursday at 2:30, Friday at 2:30, then weekend games. See #5 above (although less likely to be relevant)
- #14 plays Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday evening games, then weekend games.
For viewing as a fan my preference is:
- #2 or #3
- #1
- #6
- #7
- #8 or #9
- #4
- #5
- #10
- #11 or #14
- #12 or #13
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Going to try to post an updated NCAA and NIT Bracketology each week, simply 2/3 SOR, and 1/3 KenPom. Things should come into focus more as we go on. Still have some outliers.
For auto-bid purposes, I'm assuming whoever is in first gets the autobid, but that the highest ranked KenPom team wins the tournament
January 24 update
SOUTH
- #1 Auburn vs. #16 Colgate/Howard
- #8 Marquette vs. #9 TCU
- #5 USC vs. #12 Arkansas/Creighton
- #4 Texas Tech vs. #13 UAB
- #3 MICHIGAN STATE vs. #14 Princeton
- #6 BYU vs. #11 Boise State
- #7 Wake Forest vs. #10 INDIANA
- #2 LSU vs. #15 South Alabama
MIDWEST
- #1 Baylor vs. #16 Texas Southern/Nicholls
- #8 IOWA vs. #9 Loyola(Chi)
- #5 Xavier vs. #12 Chattanooga
- #4 Tennessee vs. #13 Toledo
- #3 Houston vs. #14 Oakland
- #6 OHIO STATE vs. #11 Florida State
- #7 Connecticut vs. #10 West Virginia
- #2 PURDUE vs. #15 Towson
WEST
- #1 Arizona vs. #16 UC Irvine
- #8 Saint Mary's vs. #9 Texas
- #5 Providence vs. #12 Miami/Florida
- #4 Kentucky vs. #13 South Dakota State
- #3 UCLA vs. #14 New Mexico State
- #6 ILLINOIS vs. #11 North Carolina
- #7 Iowa State vs. #10 Wyoming
- #2 Gonzaga vs. #15 Weber State
EAST
- #1 Kansas vs. #16 Longwood
- #8 Seton Hall vs. #9 Murray State
- #5 Alabama vs. #12 San Diego State
- #4 Duke vs. #13 Wagner
- #3 WISCONSIN vs. #14 Vermont
- #6 Colorado State vs. #11 San Francisco
- #7 Davidson vs. #10 Iona
- #2 Villanova vs. #15 Liberty
NIT
COLLEGE STATION
- #1 Texas A&M vs. #8 Texas Southern
- #4 Fresno State vs. #5 Virginia Tech
- #3 SMU vs. #6 Seattle
- #2 St. Bonaventure vs. #7 Norfolk State
SOUTH BEND
- #1 Notre Dame vs. #8 Colgate
- #4 Kansas State vs. #5 Louisiana Tech
- #3 Mississippi State vs. #6 RUTGERS
- #2 Belmont vs. #7 Arkansas State
NORMAN
- #1 Oklahoma vs. #8 Nicholls
- #4 Stanford vs. #5 Central Florida
- #3 Ohio vs. #6 Saint Louis
- #2 MICHIGAN vs. #7 Cleveland State
EUGENE
- #1 Oregon vs. #8 Howard
- #4 Cincinnati vs. #5 VCU
- #3 North Texas vs. #6 Missouri State
- #2 MINNESOTA vs. #7 CS Fullerton
Big Ten teams who made neither...
- Penn State is the 9th team out of the NIT
- Maryland is the 6th
- Northwestern is the 15th
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Not ideal for those of us who don't love Friday night games
https://twitter.com/FOXSportsPR/status/1485754914701594626?t=pyM5oZqLQBpFSBMzu9BYfg&s=19
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Wow. That's huge. I guess we'll be seeing many more Friday games now.
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I'm intrigued by the MSU/ILL match-up tonight.
About a week ago Illinois was 6-0 in the league and had just throttled the Wolverines and was generally looking fantastic. Then they lost at home to Purdue . . . Now, losing to Purdue isn't particularly damning considering that when Purdue is on their game they are possibly the best team in the country but Illinois followed that up with a loss to Maryland and neither game was very close.
Michigan State is an interesting story as well. On January 12 and 15 they barely survived Minnesota then lost to (checks notes) Northwestern, both at home. Their gaudy 5-1 record appeared to be nothing more than a product of their relatively lightweight early schedule and @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) was busy telling us that the Spartans would finish five games out of first place . . . Then they went to the Kohl Center as a 5.5 point underdog and blew the doors off of the Badgers.
I have no idea what to expect.
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How are MSU's bigs this year? I think Illinois is best when Kofi can bully the opposing big, and Edey didn't let him. Then wasn't he out with concussion against MD?
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Rumblings are Wisconsin’s second- or third-best player might be out for a bit. Ideally they can get through the next two games but it could get a little rough for a stretch.
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How are MSU's bigs this year? I think Illinois is best when Kofi can bully the opposing big, and Edey didn't let him. Then wasn't he out with concussion against MD?
From what I’ve seen, one skinnier guy, then a set of more burly stout guys? Plus one kinda softer skilled guy.
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From what I’ve seen, one skinnier guy, then a set of more burly stout guys? Plus one kinda softer skilled guy.
Yeah, that's not the best against Kofi. Even Trevion Williams, who is a hell of a big, is in a bad matchup when he's facing Kofi because he can't use his heft against Kofi, and Kofi is just as skilled and athletic as Tre while being 3 inches taller. Edey was able to compete because he's got 4 inches of height on him and outweighs Kofi, AND has really good balance and footwork from his time playing hockey. But Edey couldn't do it last year--it took spending a year of battling and learning to get to that point, on top of having a B1G-level S&C program.
A skinny guy will get muscled around by Kofi, burly stout guys are going to be down several inches AND probably 20 lbs on him so their heft is worthless, and a softer skilled guy might be able to pull Kofi out of the paint defensively, but will get destroyed by Kofi offensively.
Kofi is a major mismatch for 98%+ of teams in the NCAA.
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Rumblings are Wisconsin’s second- or third-best player might be out for a bit. Ideally they can get through the next two games but it could get a little rough for a stretch.
Not good. Really missed him last Friday.
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Haven't seen whether Kofi is in or out tonight yet. Curbelo battling the flu the past few days. Could make for an interesting night.
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How are MSU's bigs this year? I think Illinois is best when Kofi can bully the opposing big, and Edey didn't let him. Then wasn't he out with concussion against MD?
Bingham's only memorable moment before this year was shutting Cockburn down a couple years ago with his length. He can't body with him, but his length absolutely befuddled Kofi somehow. He's been a much better overall player this year, but since missing two games with COVID, he hasn't been the same player. Lack of conditioning is certainly parto f it, but he was arguably MSU's best player prior to Christmas, and hasn't been the same since
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In Lunardi's latest (updated after 1/24 games) the B1G has seven teams in and one (Michigan) barely out. Michigan (#3 out) is the only B1G on Lunardi's bubble. The teams in are:
- #2 Purdue
- #3 Michigan State, Wisconsin
- #5 Ohio State, Illinois
- #7 Iowa
- #8 Indiana
Based on the performance of those seeds since expansion to 64 teams, on average those seeds would result in:
- 5.01 teams in the R32
- 2.65 teams in the S16
- 1.22 teams in the E8
- 0.59 teams in the F4
- 0.31 teams in the NC
- 0.10 NC's
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Curbelo and Cockburn out against MSU
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If it had just been Cockburn, I might say advantage Illinois. Illini will just torch from 3. Guess they are going to do that anyway. Trent Frazier may or may not be older than Davison
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At some point you may just have to see what you've got with Akins running PG. Walker and Hoggard ain't it
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Chris Mack apparently getting drummed out of Louisville. Would he get on Maryland's radar?
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Man, was following up on Luther Muhammad, who played for the Buckeyes. I thought he was all in on Holtmann, but after the 2020 season he shockingly transferred to Arizona State, apparently because he was frustrated with his offensive role. He sat out all last season, and now is averaging 6 points a game and shooting 18% from three. He shot 34% while at OSU. Also, ASU is complete garbage this year.
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Man, was following up on Luther Muhammad, who played for the Buckeyes. I thought he was all in on Holtmann, but after the 2020 season he shockingly transferred to Arizona State, apparently because he was frustrated with his offensive role. He sat out all last season, and now is averaging 6 points a game and shooting 18% from three. He shot 34% while at OSU. Also, ASU is complete garbage this year.
ASU has been garbage with elite recruits for a couple years now. Hurley should thank Penny for diverting attention
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Second loss in a row, where we missed a free throw that could have sent it to OT
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Way to tease. Illinois didn't score a FG in the last 6:15, only one in the last 9:33.
Too many missed bunnies. MSU shot 41 twos, to just 24 for Illinois. Just couldn't convert them.
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I saw no Kofi, figured MSU had it. Weird they had trip up/let down sandwich around throwing a power punch.
Spartan point guards also confuse me.
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What year did they change it from a jump ball to alternating possessions after the ref calls a jump ball?
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back when you were young
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Bingham was +19. His post COVID respiratory issues clearing up, to allow him to play more minutes, will determine where this team goes.
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What year did they change it from a jump ball to alternating possessions after the ref calls a jump ball?
I would guess about 1980 or 1981
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Way to tease. Illinois didn't score a FG in the last 6:15, only one in the last 9:33.
Too many missed bunnies. MSU shot 41 twos, to just 24 for Illinois. Just couldn't convert them.
That had to be frustrating for an MSU fan to watch. I didn't watch but from the "Game Flow" thing it looks like MSU was getting drilled then got all the way back to make it a game and ended up one point short. Ouch.
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Back to the familiar schedule
https://twitter.com/MattNorlander/status/1486448414468497418?t=ICiDzlwkhgF4x4NKpsfTmw&s=19
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Good! The Friday->Monday schedule was stupid from the start. Don't mess with what works.
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B1G prospects in the draft per the Athletic
4. Jaden Ivey
5. Johnny Davis
8. Keegan Murray
22. Max Christie
26. Caleb Houstan
27. Bryce McGowens
42. EJ Liddell
45. Moussa Diabete
51. Gabe Brown
64. Kofi Cockburn
68. Pete Nance
70. Zach Edey
87. Trevion Williams
95. Trayce Jackson-Davis
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UW didn't exactly whomp Nebraska, but put the Huskers away. Tyler Wahl, who was questionable with an ankle, played 22 minutes (maybe). Highly-rated sophomore Ben Carlson was solid spelling him.
Nebraska is odd. Not bad talent. Not a great product. Badgers have a tricky one vs Minnesota at home. Should be a win, but the Goofs can be crafty. Not sure if their roster is whole these days.
If UW can win that one, that would be 8-2, with three more gimmies on the roster. Very interesting path ahead.
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The Badgers only beat the Huskers by single digits? :o
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The Badgers only beat the Huskers by single digits? :o
On the road. And UW has tended to do that. Also was 13 points with under a minute to go.
'Huskers closed on that 7-2 run to close it down. :)
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B1G prospects in the draft per the Athletic
4. Jaden Ivey
5. Johnny Davis
8. Keegan Murray
22. Max Christie
26. Caleb Houstan
27. Bryce McGowens
42. EJ Liddell
45. Moussa Diabete
51. Gabe Brown
64. Kofi Cockburn
68. Pete Nance
70. Zach Edey
87. Trevion Williams
95. Trayce Jackson-Davis
A bit surprised Edey isn't getting more hype. I realize that he's not exactly a "modern" big, but he's also not a slow-footed ogre like Isaac Haas.
Especially since the NBA so often drafts on potential. Edey has only been playing basketball since middle of high school. He came in as a completely green freshman, and his development in-season was amazing. He's jumped into the starting spot over a more skilled Williams, but his physical attributes are something that neither Williams or even Cockburn can match.
If I'm an NBA GM, I'm looking at someone like Edey and saying he's someone I want to target in the 2nd round. He's certainly not a sure-fire lock, but one of those guys that if he hits, he's going to be REALLY dominant because you can't teach 7'4". He's got potential.
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A bit surprised Edey isn't getting more hype. I realize that he's not exactly a "modern" big, but he's also not a slow-footed ogre like Isaac Haas.
Especially since the NBA so often drafts on potential. Edey has only been playing basketball since middle of high school. He came in as a completely green freshman, and his development in-season was amazing. He's jumped into the starting spot over a more skilled Williams, but his physical attributes are something that neither Williams or even Cockburn can match.
If I'm an NBA GM, I'm looking at someone like Edey and saying he's someone I want to target in the 2nd round. He's certainly not a sure-fire lock, but one of those guys that if he hits, he's going to be REALLY dominant because you can't teach 7'4". He's got potential.
He seemed pretty low on big guys who don't move that well. Hunter Dickinson didn't even make his top 100 and he was pretty vocal that he didn't have a place in the NBA, which surprised me. Most of his reasoning was Dickinson can't guard in space, and I assume that is why Edey wouldn't be a top prospect for him too. Though he was ranking everyone - would be a bit surprising to see Edey leave this season when he is due to be the fulltime dude next year.
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Ugh the sound on the Buckeye game is kind of messed up, so it is glaringly obvious that you are hearing these talking heads talk from home and the sounds from the game are muted. Thanks ESPN
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But it was a Buckeye win. I listened to the radio any way.
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But it was a Buckeye win. I listened to the radio any way.
And a road win to boot. Actually all three of tonight's B1G games were won by the visiting team which is pretty rare.
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Update almost 1/2 way through the season:
The tiers are:
- tOSU, MSU even(+1,-1), PU+1 (+2,-1), IL-1 (+1,-2), UW even(+1,-1)
- RU even(+1,-1), IA-1 (+1,-2), IU-1
- UMD+1 (+3,-2), M even(+1,-1), PSU+1, NU even(+2,-2), MN even(+1,-1)
- blank
- UNL
Upsets so far have been:
(https://i.imgur.com/tA138gJ.png)
Games "postponed" and at this point projected NOT to be played are:
(https://i.imgur.com/WsrPkrZ.png)
Based on all of this the updated projected final standings and BTT seeds are as follows:
- 14-5/23-7 Michigan State (see tiebreaker below)
- 14-5/25-5 Purdue
- 14-5/21-7 Ohio State
- 14-6/22-9 Illinois (wins tie with UW based on H2H, no game in Madison)
- 14-6/23-7 Wisconsin
- 11-9/17-13 Rutgers
- 10-10/20-11 Iowa (wins tie with IU based on H2H, no game in Bloomington)
- 10-10/19-11 Indiana
- 8-12/16-15 Maryland
- 7-11/13-15 Michigan
- 7-12/12-15 Penn State
- 7-13/14-15 Northwestern
- 6-13/15-13 Minnesota
- 0-19/6-24 Nebraska
Thus the match-ups for the BTT in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:
- #11 Penn State vs #14 Nebraska, 830 BTN
- #12 Northwestern vs #13 Minnesota, 6 BTN
Thursday, March 10, 2022:
- #5 Wisconsin vs NU/MN, 230 BTN
- #6 Rutgers vs PSU/UNL, 9 BTN
- #7 Iowa vs #10 Michigan, 630 BTN
- #8 Indiana vs #9 Maryland, noon BTN
Friday, March 11, 2022:
- #1 Michigan State vs IU/UMD, noon BTN
- #2 Purdue vs IA/M, 630 BTN
- #3 Ohio State vs RU/PSU/UNL, 9 BTN
- #4 Illinois vs UW/NU/MN, 230 BTN
Saturday, March 12, 2022:
- MSU/IU/UMD vs IL/UW/NU/MN, 1 CBS
- PU/IA/M vs tOSU/RU/PSU/UNL, 330 CBS
Sunday, March 13, 2022:
- MSU/IU/UMD/IL/UW/NU/MN vs PU/IA/M/tOSU/RU/PSU/UNL, 330 CBS
Tiebreaker for the three co-champions:
The first tiebreaker is H2H. In a full double-round-robin each would be projected to go 2-2 against the other two but each one misses one home game and one road game so that moves them all to 1-1. That is still tied so we move to:
The second tiebreaker is record against the best team(s) then the next, etc. Each of the three would be expected to go 2-2 against the two 14-6 teams (IL, UW) in a double-round-robin but Ohio State does not host IL so that drops them to 1-2. Purdue has offsetting upsets (by UW in West Lafayette, of Illinois in Champaign) while MSU has an upset of UW. Thus their projected records against the 14-6 teams are:
- 3-1 Michigan State (sweep of UW, split with IL)
- 2-2 Purdue (sweep of IL, swept by UW)
- 1-2 Ohio State (home win over UW, road losses to IL and UW)
It is important to point out that the top-5 are all within 1/2 a game of each other so anything can happen. The current projected #1 seed is Michigan State and they host Michigan this weekend in a game they are projected to win. If they lose they drop all the way to #5. Similarly the current projected #5 seed is Wisconsin and they travel to Illinois on Tuesday in a game they are projected to lose. If they win they move all the way up to #1.
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All 14 teams are in action between Saturday and Monday:
- Michigan at Michigan State Saturday at 1230 on CBS
- Indiana at Maryland Saturday at 230 on FOX
- Illinois at Northwestern Saturday at 430 on BTN
- Rutgers at Nebraska Saturday at 630 on BTN
- Ohio State at Purdue Sunday at noon on CBS
- Minnesota at Wisconsin Sunday at 1 on BTN
- Iowa at Penn State Monday at 7 on BTN
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He seemed pretty low on big guys who don't move that well. Hunter Dickinson didn't even make his top 100 and he was pretty vocal that he didn't have a place in the NBA, which surprised me. Most of his reasoning was Dickinson can't guard in space, and I assume that is why Edey wouldn't be a top prospect for him too. Though he was ranking everyone - would be a bit surprising to see Edey leave this season when he is due to be the fulltime dude next year.
Yeah, I'm not worried about Edeys lack of a modern NBA offensive game, I just don't know how he can guard anyone at the next level.
As for the MSU guys, surprised to see no Bingham, and surprised to see Gabe Brown on there at all, let alone all the way up at #51. He seems like a dime a dozen wing. Bingham is long, with good defensive skills, and a shot that still looks pretty good, even if it doesn't get the best results. If I was an NBA guy, I'd trust our ability to fix that. Feels like there are a million Gabe browns, as much as I love the guy
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Games "postponed" and at this point projected NOT to be played are:
(https://i.imgur.com/WsrPkrZ.png)
UW @ UNL was played last night as a makeup game.
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UW @ UNL was played last night as a makeup game.
And Michigan and Purdue just announced they are playing a makeup game on February 10th
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They should move it to the 14th - in the spirit of the Day
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They should move it to the 14th - in the spirit of the Day
I mean, you can't top this :)
https://youtu.be/nt-YNOAEzYI
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UW @ UNL was played last night as a makeup game.
You are right. I put it on that list when I thought it was not going to be played. When they rescheduled I put it back in the results so it is included there but forgot to delete it from the list of games not to be played. I fixed it in my spreadsheet.
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And Michigan and Purdue just announced they are playing a makeup game on February 10th
I hadn't seen that, thank you. I added it to the projections and Purdue is now projected to win the league at 15-5 with tOSU/MSU 1/2 game back at 14-5 and IL/UW one game back at 14-6.
They had to move IL@PU from 2/10 to 2/8 to make this work. Purdue's schedule in that stretch is now:
- 2/5 vs M
- 2/8 vs IL
- 2/10 at M
- 2/13 vs UMD
Michigan's is:
- 2/5 at PU
- 2/8 at PSU
- 2/10 vs PU
- 2/12 vs tOSU
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If the defense we saw in November and December is back, MSU can be competitive with the best teams in the conference. We hadn't seen it since mid-December though. We had only one game in like a 12-day stretch, and four players missed that game with COVID. The defense has been a shell of itself in the month since.
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Also, I'm.wprroed the longer Howard is there, the less they will have obvious to hate players. They are arguably down to just Dickinson. As great a coach as Beilein was, he was always able to roll out two 22 year old foreign prep school transfer freshmen that refilled your hate bottle.
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Also, I'm.wprroed the longer Howard is there, the less they will have obvious to hate players. They are arguably down to just Dickinson. As great a coach as Beilein was, he was always able to roll out two 22 year old foreign prep school transfer freshmen that refilled your hate bottle.
I dunno they had the look of a team that wanted to chirp today but after the first ten minutes there wasn't much to chirp about. Diabete seems to like to talk, though he's a fun player so may be hard to hate. Houstan seems to be morphing into Justin Ahrens. He just runs around and if he doesn't have an open three he doesn't have anything.
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I dunno they had the look of a team that wanted to chirp today but after the first ten minutes there wasn't much to chirp about. Diabete seems to like to talk, though he's a fun player so may be hard to hate. Houstan seems to be morphing into Justin Ahrens. He just runs around and if he doesn't have an open three he doesn't have anything.
I mean whatever they accomplish is more than their coach accomplished legitimately as a player. #fauxfive
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Basically if you didn't vote him for Heisman, you have helmet bias
https://twitter.com/sarge__msu/status/1487510368473780225?t=jIuCis6dWDk8Od3sgZrdcw&s=19
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Purdue is scary good when they are on. Ohio State was absolutely in this game at something like 24-21 then Purdue "clicked", I blinked, and ugh.
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It's wild that Eric Curry is still around.
His first UW game saw a sophomore named Ethan Happ (three years out of school) score 28, Nigel Hayes score 21 and a game-winner from Bronson Koenig
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I love the call where the defenders face fouls the ball carriers swinging elbow...
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Oof refs missed a shove in the back on that Purdue rebound. Turns into a Purdue three. Goes from shooting foul shots down six to having the ball down 11.
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Unbelievably the Buckeyes have actually made a game out of this.
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Oh man, oh so close to a turnover there
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What a damned game
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*sigh*
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*sigh*
So close and then . . . Damn.
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Purdue is scary good when they are on. Ohio State was absolutely in this game at something like 24-21 then Purdue "clicked", I blinked, and ugh.
Clearly the highest ceiling in the conference, I think by far. But so frustrating how frequently they play short of it
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Oof refs missed a shove in the back on that Purdue rebound. Turns into a Purdue three. Goes from shooting foul shots down six to having the ball down 11.
I mean it's Mackey. Just expect to get zero calls, and yet still have the Purdue fans boo the two legit calls that go against them
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One upset over the weekend (IU winning at UMD). Maryland is easily the most unpredictable team. There have been 16 upsets so far and they have been involved in six of them:
- The road team won both in the NU/UMD series (that is two upsets)
- The road team won both in the RU/UMD series (that is two, makes four)
- Maryland beat Illinois at home (that makes five)
- Maryland lost at home to Indiana (that makes six)
These are the tiers:
- PU+1 (+2,-1), tOSU, MSU even(+1,-1), IL-1 (+1,-2), UW even(+1,-1)
- RU even(+1,-1), IU even(+1,-1), IA-1 (+1,-2)
- M even(+1,-1), PSU+1, UMD even(+3,-3), NU even(+2,-2), MN even(+1,-1)
- blank
- UNL
These are the upsets so far:
(https://i.imgur.com/exZDIOg.png)
These are the "postponed" games that I currently project will NOT be played. If you know of any corrections/reschedules please let me know:
(https://i.imgur.com/zcuMO4S.png)
Projections in post to follow:
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Roughly 1/2 way through the season these are the projected final standings/BTT seeds:
- 15-5/26-5 Purdue
- 14-5/21-7 Ohio State (wins tie with MSU based on H2H, no game in E. Lansing)
- 14-5/23-7 Michigan State
- 14-6/22-9 Illinois (wins tie with UW based on H2H, no game in Madison)
- 14-6/23-7 Wisconsin
- 11-9/20-10 Indiana (wins tie with RU based on H2H, no game in Piscataway)
- 11-9/17-13 Rutgers
- 10-10/ 20-11 Iowa
- 7-12/12-15 Penn State (wins tie with M based on H2H, no game in Ann Arbor)
- 7-12/13-16 Michigan
- 7-13/14-15 Northwestern (wins tie with UMD based on record against the 14-5 teams, upset MSU)
- 7-13/15-16 Maryland
- 6-13/15-13 Minnesota
- 0-19/6-24 Nebraska
Thus, the match-ups at the B1G Tournament in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:
- #11 Northwestern vs #14 Nebraska, 830 BTN
- #12 Maryland vs #13 Minnesota, 6 BTN
Thursday, March 10, 2022:
- #5 Wisconsin vs UMD/MN, 230 BTN
- #6 Indiana vs NU/UNL, 9 BTN
- #7 Rutgers vs #10 Michigan, 630 BTN
- #8 Iowa vs #9 Penn State, noon BTN
Friday, March 11, 2022:
- #1 Purdue vs IA/PSU, noon BTN
- #2 Ohio State vs RU/M, 630 BTN
- #3 Michigan State vs IU/NU/UNL, 9 BTN
- #4 Illinois vs UW/UMD/MN, 230 BTN
Saturday, March 12, 2022:
- PU/IA/PSU vs IL/UW/UMD/MN, 1 CBS
- tOSU/RU/M vs MSU/IU/NU/UNL, 330 CBS
Sunday, March 13, 2022:
- PU/IA/PSU/IL/UW/UMD/MN vs tOSU/RU/M/MSU/IU/NU/UNL, 330 CBS
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Side note, how I use this and suggest that it be used:
If you look at the top-5 teams in the projection they are only separated by one game. Thus, I have no confidence whatsoever in the order of the top-5. However, there is a projected three-game gap between #5 and #6 so I am relatively confident that the projected top-5 will end up as the top-5 with the possible exception of Michigan (which has oodles of talent but just can't seem to consistently play like it) figuring things out and moving into the top group.
Similarly, the projected #6-#8 seeds are all within one game of each other so I have no confidence whatsoever in the order of those three but they project to be three games behind #5 and 2.5 games ahead of #9 so I am relatively confident that the projected #6-#8 teams will end up as the #6-#8 teams with the same exception as above.
Similarly, the projected #9-#13 seeds are all within one game of each other so I have no confidence whatsoever in the order of those five but they project to be 2.5 games behind #8 and six games ahead of #14 so I am relatively confident that the projected #9-#13 teams will end up as the #9-#13 teams with the same exception as above.
Nebraska is the only team whose seed I am fairly confident of. It would be shocking if they were anything but the #14 seed.
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MSU-UM makeup game set for March 1.
5 day stretch now for MSU of PU, at UM, at OSU
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MSU-UM makeup game set for March 1.
5 day stretch now for MSU of PU, at UM, at OSU
I can't find this officially, did it necessitate changing anything else? It looks like it wouldn't. As of right now:
- MSU hosts PU on Saturday, 2/26
- M hosts IL on Sunday, 2/27
- Both off Monday, 2/28
- Both off Tuesday, 3/1
- Both off on Wednesday, 3/2
- MSU visits tOSU on Thursday, 3/3
- M hosts IA on Thursday, 3/3
I gotta be honest I'm kinda liking the way this is shaping up for Ohio State. If this holds up the Buckeyes will visit an exhausted M on 2/12 and host an exhausted MSU on 3/3.
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I can't find this officially, did it necessitate changing anything else? It looks like it wouldn't. As of right now:
- MSU hosts PU on Saturday, 2/26
- M hosts IL on Sunday, 2/27
- Both off Monday, 2/28
- Both off Tuesday, 3/1
- Both off on Wednesday, 3/2
- MSU visits tOSU on Thursday, 3/3
- M hosts IA on Thursday, 3/3
I gotta be honest I'm kinda liking the way this is shaping up for Ohio State. If this holds up the Buckeyes will visit an exhausted M on 2/12 and host an exhausted MSU on 3/3.
https://twitter.com/MSU_Basketball/status/1488225636074225664?t=kUzdhoGjLjnIrbb6mNoXSQ&s=19
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Some rumbling weather gonna complicate things in Illinois-Wisconsin.
I imagine they will find a way to make it happen, even if they have to ship police teams to the south to do it
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https://twitter.com/MSU_Basketball/status/1488225636074225664?t=kUzdhoGjLjnIrbb6mNoXSQ&s=19
Thanks, added to projection spreadsheet. We now project that PU and MSU will tie for the league title at 15-5 with tOSU 1/2 game back at 14-5. If Ohio State's home game against Nebraska gets rescheduled the Buckeyes would join what would then be a projected three-way tie for first.
As projected, MSU would win the tie (no game in W. Lafayette) and get the #1 seed with PU and tOSU dropping to #2 and #3 respectively. All of this is obviously very much up in the air since PU/MSU are projected to only be 1/2 game ahead of tOSU and one game ahead of IL/UW.
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Some rumbling weather gonna complicate things in Illinois-Wisconsin.
I imagine they will find a way to make it happen, even if they have to ship police teams to the south to do it
I think it will be played.
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Going to try to post an updated NCAA and NIT Bracketology each week, simply 2/3 SOR, and 1/3 KenPom. Things should come into focus more as we go on. Still have some outliers.
For auto-bid purposes, I'm assuming whoever is in first gets the autobid, but that the highest ranked KenPom team wins the tournament
January 31 update (meaning not including last night's results)
SOUTH
- #1 Auburn vs. #16 Texas Southern/Colgate
- #8 INDIANA vs. #9 Miami
- #5 Providence vs. #12 San Francisco/Belmont
- #4 Texas Tech vs. #13 UAB
- #3 Duke vs. #14 Towson
- #6 Connecticut vs. #11 Loyola(Chi)
- #7 Murray State vs. #10 Colorado State
- #2 Gonzaga vs. #15 South Alabama
MIDWEST
- #1 Baylor vs. #16 Yale/Nicholls
- #8 Wake Forest vs. #9 IOWA
- #5 Alabama vs. #12 West Virginia
- #4 MICHIGAN STATE vs. #13 Toledo
- #3 WISCONSIN vs. #14 Oakland
- #6 Xavier vs. #11 Arkansas
- #7 USC vs. #10 BYU
- #2 Kansas vs. #15 Norfolk State
EAST
- #1 PURDUE vs. #16 Longwood
- #8 North Carolina vs. #9 Iona
- #5 Iowa State vs. #12 Seton Hall/Ohio
- #4 LSU vs. #13 Wagner
- #3 Villanova vs. #14 Vermont
- #6 ILLINOIS vs. #11 Oklahoma
- #7 Saint Mary’s vs. #10 Davidson
- #2 Kentucky vs. #15 Liberty
WEST
- #1 Arizona vs. #16 UC Irvine
- #8 TCU vs. #9 Boise State
- #5 OHIO STATE vs. #12 Notre Dame
- #4 Tennessee vs. #13 South Dakota State
- #3 Houston vs. #14 NM State
- #6 Texas vs. #11 Chattanooga
- #7 Marquette vs. #10 Wyoming
- #2 UCLA vs. #15 Weber State
NIT
RICHMOND
- #1 VCU vs. #8 Southern
- #4 Creighton vs. #5 Cincinnati
- #3 Florida State vs. #6 Jacksonville State
- #2 Mississippi State vs. #7 Princeton
SAN DIEGO
- #1 San Diego State vs. #8 Hawaii
- #4 Saint Louis vs. #5 Furman
- #3 Texas A&M vs. #6 Memphis
- #2 Stanford vs. #7 Seattle
DALLAS
- #1 SMU vs. #8 New Orleans
- #4 MINNESOTA vs. #5 South Carolina
- #3 Oregon vs. #6 Fresno State
- #2 North Texas vs. #7 Navy
GAINESVILLE
- #1 Florida vs. #8 UNC Wilmington
- #4 Oklahoma State vs. #5 Louisiana Tech
- #3 St. Bonaventure vs. #6 Virginia Tech
- #2 MICHIGAN vs. #7 Appalachian State
- Maryland - #7 out of NIT
- Penn State - #9 out of NIT
- Rutgers - #11 out of NIT
- Northwestern - #22 out of NIT
- Nebraska - N/A
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In Lunardi's latest (updated this morning) the B1G has seven teams in and none on the bubble. The teams are:
- #1 Purdue
- #3 Michigan State, Wisconsin
- #5 Illinois, Ohio State
- #7 Iowa, Indiana
Based on the historical performance of those seeds since expansion to 64, those seeds on average would result in:
- 5.18 teams in the R32
- 2.97 teams in the S16
- 1.47 teams in the E8
- 0.79 teams in the F4
- 0.47 teams in the NC
- 0.23 NC's
For the last three, Purdue makes up more than half of our chances. Historical performance of #1 seeds:
- 99.31% win their opener (143-1)
- 85.42% make the S16 (123-20)
- 69.44% make the E8 (100-23)
- 41.67% make the F4 (60-40)
- 25.69% win the semi-final (37-23)
- 15.97% win the NC (23-14)
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Historical performance of all seeds:
(https://i.imgur.com/T5z6LeY.png)
- No #16 has ever won more than one game.
- No #13 or below has ever won a second-weekend game.
- No #12 or below has ever made the F4.
- No #9 or below has ever made the NCG.
- No #5 and only one each #4, #6, #7, and #8 have won the NC.
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Differences between @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's and Lunardi's:
- ELA has MSU as a #4, Lunardi as a #3
- ELA has IL as a #6, Lundardi as a #5
- ELA has IU as a #8, Lunardi as a #7
- ELA has IA as a #9, Lunardi as a #7
The differences don't seem all that significant. Purdue, Wisconsin, and Ohio State are the same in each (1, 3, 5 respectively) while MSU, IL, and IU are one seed lower in ELA's and Iowa is two seeds lower in ELA's.
Also, ELA has Michigan as a #2 seed in the NIT which theoretically should be one of the "Next Four Out" in the big dance so that is better than Lunardi who does not mention them. Michigan is the closest thing we have to a bubble team right now.
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Iowa and Penn State played yesterday and there are 12 teams playing this week tonight, Wednesday night, or Thursday night:
- MSU @ UMD Tuesday at 7 on ESPN2
- RU @ NU Tuesday at 7 on BTN
- UNL @ M Tuesday at 9 on BTN
- PU @ MN Wednesday at 7 on BTN
- UW @ IL Wednesday at 9 on BTN (How is this on BTN?)
- IA @ tOSU Thursday at 8 on FS1
The most interesting game is the one in Champaign. Wisconsin and Illinois only play once this season so this is it. Illinois is projected to win and both are projected to finish 14-6 and tied for 4th/5th a half game behind #3 tOSU and one game behind #1/2 PU/MSU.
If Wisconsin wins they'll move up into a projected tie for the league title with PU and MSU at 15-5 and Illinois looks vulnerable. In their last four games they lost at home to Purdue, lost at Maryland, barely survived MSU at home (after holding a huge lead), and barely survived Northwestern on the road. The Badgers really look to be hitting on all cylinders. They are 9-1 in their last 10 although the lone setback was a home loss to Michigan State. These two are the co-leaders in the league at the halfway point at 8-2 one half game ahead of MSU (7-2), one game ahead of Purdue (7-3), and a game-and-a-half ahead of tOSU and IU (6-3 and 7-4 respectively).
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Composite Computer Rankings (last week in parenthesis) - 51 computers
- Gonzaga (2)
- Auburn (4)
- Baylor (3)
- Arizona (1)
- PURDUE (7)
- Houston (6)
- Kansas (5)
- Kentucky (12)
- UCLA (11)
- Villanova (8)
- Duke (9)
- Texas Tech (14)
- LSU (10)
- MICHIGAN STATE (13)
- Tennessee (15)
- WISCONSIN (18)
- Connecticut (19)
- ILLINOIS (17)
- Alabama (16)
- Xavier (20)
- Texas (23)
- OHIO STATE (22)
- USC (21)
- Saint Mary's (-)
- Providence (-)
- 27. Iowa (24)
- 28. Indiana (32)
- 48. Michigan (46)
- 78. Minnesota (70)
- 85. Maryland (81)
- 90. Northwestern (83)
- 95. Penn State (82)
- 100. Rutgers (92)
- 187. Nebraska (178)
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Composite Computer Rankings (last week in parenthesis) - 51 computers
For the most part this lines up with our tiers:
- #5 Purdue, #14 MSU, #16 UW, #18 IL, #22 tOSU
- #27 IA, #28 IU, #100 RU
- #48 M, #78 MN, #85 UMD, #90 NU, #95 PSU
- blank
- #187 UNL
If I were making tiers based on these rankings they would be:
- Purdue
- Michigan State, Wisconsin, Illinois
- Ohio State, Iowa, Indiana
- Michigan
- Minnesota, Maryland, Northwestern, Penn State, Rutgers
- blank
- blank
- blank
- Nebraska
The big outliers are #100 Rutgers being in tier-2 and #48 Michigan being in tier-3. Within the conference at least so far though, those tiers make sense.
Rutgers; the difference between tier-2 and tier-3 is expected result in home games against tier-1. Those are:
- vs PU 12/9, W
- vs MSU 2/5
- vs tOSU 2/9
- vs IL 2/16
- vs UW 2/26
Rutgers is 1-0 with four left to play. They also have offsetting upsets against Maryland (won away, lost home)
Michigan; the difference between tier-3 and tier-2 is expected result in home games against tier-1. Those are:
- vs UW not scheduled
- vs PU 2/10
- vs tOSU 2/12
- vs IL 2/27
- vs MSU 3/1
Due to the postponements Michigan is 0-0 with four to play. They also have an upset win at Indiana and an upset home loss to Minnesota.
What does the group think about those two?
My thoughts:
Rutgers: I think we should wait because it will work itself out soon. They are in tier-2 basically because of their win over Purdue but they have vs MSU and vs tOSU coming up within a little over a week so lets see what happens. If they lose both they obviously drop to tier-3. If they win both they obviously stay in tier-2. If they go 1-1 we can argue about it then.
Michigan: I'm inclined to wait just because they've been so wildly up and down. Looking at their two upsets perhaps the oddest thing is that neither was particularly close. They trailed the Gophers almost the entire second half and lost by 10 at home. That doesn't look anything like a tier-2 team. However, in Bloomington they led the Hoosiers almost the entire game and won by 18. That doesn't just look like a tier-2 team, it looks like a tier-1 team, probably the best in the league.
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FWIW:
If we did upgrade Michigan to tier-2 from tier-3 the impact would be to improve Michigan's projected finish by four games from 7-13 to 11-9 by flipping projected losses to PU, tOSU, MSU, and IL to wins and dropping each of those team's projected final record by a game to:
- 14-6 for Purdue
- 14-6 for MSU
- 13-6 for tOSU
- 13-7 for IL
The league title would then project to be a three-way tie between PU, MSU, and UW at 14-6 with tOSU 1/2 game behind and IL one game back. Meanwhile Michigan would move into a projected three-way tie for 6th/7th/8th with RU and IU at 11-9.
If we did downgrade Rutgers to tier-3 from tier-2 the impact would be to drop Rutgers' projected finish by four games to 7-13 from 11-9 by flipping projected home wins over tOSU, MSU, IL, and UW to losses and improving each of those teams' projected final record by a game to:
- 16-4 for MSU
- 15-4 for tOSU
- 15-5 for IL
- 15-5 for UW
The league title would then project to be won outright by MSU at 16-4 with tOSU 1/2 game back at 15-4 and PU/IL/UW one game back.
Doing both would obviously improve M's projection to 11-9 and drop Rutgers' projection to 7-13. It would net out for MSU, tOSU, and IL while dropping PU a game and improving UW a game. Then the top of the standings would project to be:
- 15-5 Michigan State, Wisconsin (Wisconsin wins the tie)
- 14-5 Ohio State
- 14-6 Purdue, Illinois (Purdue wins the tie so Illinois has to play the #5 vs 12/13 game on Thursday)
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I think it's wise to hold on M and R for another week.
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Well, that became a very stressful night very quickly. PGs sucked, and all the bigs were in foul trouble. Fortunately Maryland waited a little over a half to play any offense. But you think a 15 point lead, even on the road, against a team that scored 27 points in 34 minutes, is safe
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Michigan down 7 at the half, at home, to Nebraska. Opens the half with a 20-3 run to go up 10. Nebraska counters with a 19-3 run to go back up 6
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https://twitter.com/DarkoStateNews/status/1487565651485114374?t=R1RAVk5xFfDF7I6-BdIAIg&s=19
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Well, that became a very stressful night very quickly. PGs sucked, and all the bigs were in foul trouble. Fortunately Maryland waited a little over a half to play any offense. But you think a 15 point lead, even on the road, against a team that scored 27 points in 34 minutes, is safe
Still sore about their play in Madison
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Still sore about their play in Madison
Hoggard has had his moments. Was great against Michigan. The offense runs better with him. He's just too careless, and is a liability on defense. Walker hasn't looked right yet in Big Ten play. Tonight was a real problem for him. It's almost like the more teams sag off him, the more scared he is to shoot, and he was definitely his worst defensive game of the year. Way overcommitted on doubling the post, and have up at least 3 wide open threes off it.
I've felt all along that way more needs to run through Hall. Hopefully she convinced the coaches of that tonight. The fact that the winning play was drawn up for him is a positive sign.
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Terrible shooting for UW last night, and a poor defensive effort.
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If they had shot even 30% from 3, it would have been a much different game. But 3 for 24 (or whatever it was) is going to make for a tough night against a good team with a big man that the Badgers don't really have an answer for. The answer is to hit your open 3s, which they didn't do.
Winning on the road in conference and against good teams is hard. Not a great effort, but not all that surprising. As surprising as this team has been, it's no Kentucky 2015.
;)
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Terrible shooting for UW last night, and a poor defensive effort.
Yeah. Illinois is a damn bear when Kofi is going, but they felt a bit light on scramble/grit.
Then again, hit a few shots, you’re in OK position. Tough Johnny Davis game.
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Davison didn't pick the right game to lay an egg either. My gosh, he was terrible last night.
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Davison didn't pick the right game to lay an egg either. My gosh, he was terrible last night.
It was weird because he was taking some bad shots but generally those were going in. And the shots that I was good with him taking just weren’t falling. Very weird day
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According to my phone the Iowa at Ohio State game scheduled for tonight has been postponed.
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According to my phone the Iowa at Ohio State game scheduled for tonight has been postponed.
Apparently due to travel cancellations in Iowa.
Ohio State now has two home games that could be rescheduled (UNL and IA).
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All 14 teams are scheduled to play league games this weekend with five games on Saturday and two more on Sunday:
- Illinois at Indiana Saturday at noon on BTN
- Northwestern at Nebraska Saturday at 1 on BTN
- Michigan at Purdue Saturday at 230 on FOX
- Michigan State at Rutgers Saturday at 4 on FS1
- Penn State at Wisconsin Saturday at 6 on BTN
- Maryland at Ohio State Sunday at 1 on CBS
- Minnesota at Iowa Sunday at 430 on BTN
Each team has now played between nine and 11 league games. Only the Buckeyes and Wolverines have played <10 and that is due to each of them having two games postponed. Eight teams (IL, PU, UW, IU, RU, UMD, NU, and UNL) have played 11 games while the other four (MSU, IA, PSU, MN) have played 10.
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Updated projections:
The tiers are:
- PU+1 (+2,-1), MSU even(+1,-1), IL-1 (+1,-2), UW even(+1,-1), tOSU
- RU even(+1,-1), IU even(+1,-1), IA-1 (+1,-2)
- PSU+1, M even(+1,-1), UMD even(+3,-3), NU even(+2,-2), MN even(+1,-1)
- blank
- UNL
Upsets so far have been:
(https://i.imgur.com/26yCpnA.png)
Scheduled games "postponed" and not, to my knowledge, rescheduled yet:
(https://i.imgur.com/JoQh9ut.png)
Thus, the projected final standings/BTT seeds are as follows:
- 15-5/24-7 Michigan State (wins tie over PU based on H2H, no game in W. Lafayette)
- 15-5/26-5 Purdue
- 13-5/20-7 Ohio State
- 14-6/22-9 Illinois (wins tie over UW based on H2H, no game in Madison)
- 14-6/23-7 Wisconsin
- 11-9/20-10 Indiana (wins tie over RU based on H2H, no game in Piscataway)
- 11-9/17-13 Rutgers
- 10-9/20-10 Iowa
- 7-12/12-15 Penn State
- 7-13/13-17 Michigan (wins tie over UMD and NU based on H2H2H, no games in College Park or Evanston)
- 7-13/14-15 Northwestern (wins tie over UMD based on record against the 15-5 teams, win over MSU)
- 7-13/15-16 Maryland
- 6-13/15-13 Minnesota
- 0-19/6-24 Nebraska
Based on all of that the match-ups at the B1G Tournament in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:
- #11 Northwestern vs #14 Nebraska, 830 BTN
- #12 Maryland vs #13 Minnesota, 6 BTN
Thursday, March 10, 2022:
- #5 Wisconsin vs UMD/MN, 230 BTN
- #6 Indiana vs NU/UNL, 9 BTN
- #7 Rutgers vs #10 Michigan, 630 BTN
- #8 Iowa vs #9 Penn State, noon BTN
Friday, March 11, 2022:
- #1 Michigan State vs IA/PSU, noon BTN
- #2 Purdue vs RU/M, 630 BTN
- #3 Ohio State vs IU/NU/UNL, 9 BTN
- #4 Illinois vs UW/UMD/MN, 230 BTN
Saturday, March 12, 2022:
- MSU/IA/PSU vs IL/UW/UMD/MN, 1 CBS
- PU/RU/M vs tOSU/IU/NU/UNL, 330 CBS
Sunday, March 13, 2022:
- MSU/IA/PSU/IL/UW/UMD/MN vs PU/RU/M/tOSU/IU/NU/UNL, 330 CBS
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@Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) will want to know, what would it take for tOSU to play M in the BTT:
- Michigan would need to upset #7 Rutgers in the 7/10 game on Thursday, and
- Michigan would need to upset #2 Purdue in the 2/7/10 game on Friday, and
- Ohio State would need to win the 3/6/11/14 game on Friday.
If that happened then the late semi-final on Saturday would be between #3 Ohio State and #10 Michigan.
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Impact of the "postponed" games:
Ohio State:
The Buckeyes have missed two projected home wins (IA, UNL) and they are projected to finish 13-5 which is right between the co-champions (MSU/PU at 15-5) and two teams tied for 4th/5th (IL/UW at 14-6):
- 15-5: If the Buckeyes played and won both as projected they would be a third league co-champion along with MSU and PU. The first tiebreaker is H2H2H but all three are projected to go 1-1 against each other because each one misses a home and a road game against the other two. Ohio State loses on the second tiebreaker (record against IL/UW) both because the other two have upset road wins over those two (MSU at UW, PU at IL) and because Ohio State doesn't host Illinois so the Buckeyes would get the #3 seed anyway.
- 14-6: If the Buckeyes played and split the two games they would finish in a three-way tie for 3rd/4th/5th along with the Illini and Badgers. Illinois wins that because they don't play in either Madison or Columbus. Ohio State gets the #4 seed over Wisconsin because the Badgers lost at home to MSU.
- 13-7: If the Buckeyes played and lost both they would finish alone in 5th place one game behind the 3rd/4th place Badgers and Illini and two games ahead of the 6th/7th place Hoosiers and Scarlet Knights.
Iowa:
The Hawkeyes missed one projected road loss (tOSU) and they are projected to finish 10-9 which is one-half game behind the 6th/7th place Scarlet Knights and Hoosiers and three games ahead of the 9th place Nittany Lions:
- 11-9: If the Hawkeyes played and won the game they would move into a three-way tie for 6th/7th/8th with RU and IU.
- 10-10: If the Hawkeyes played and lost the game as projected they would remain alone in 8th a game behind 6th/7th and 2.5 games ahead of 9th.
Penn State/Minnesota:
The Nittany Lions missed a projected home win over the Gophers. The Nittany Lions are projected to finish 7-12 which is one-half game ahead of 10th/11th/12th (M, UMD, NU all at 7-13) while the Gophers are projected to finish 6-13 which is one-half game behind 10th/11th/12th:
- 7-13 both: If the game was played and the Gophers won then both would project to finish 7-13 joining what would then be a projected five-way tie for 9th/10th/11th/12th/13th.
- 8-12 Penn State, 6-14 Minnesota: If the game is played and the Nittany Lions win as projected they finish alone in 9th and the Gophers finish alone in 13th.
Nebraska:
It really doesn't matter because the difference between 0-19 and 0-20 is nil.
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Not sure what to make of Indiana, their home games (league only):
- W vs UNL 68-55
- W vs tOSU 67-51
- W vs MN 73-60
- W vs PU 68-65
- L vs M 80-62
- W vs PSU 74-57
- L vs IL 74-57
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MSU lost to Rutgers because this sport is majestic and dumb.
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A real barn burner in Madison
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MSU lost to Rutgers because this sport is majestic and dumb.
4th highest adjusted FG% against MSU in the 21 year KenPom erA
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A real barn burner in Madison
None of the cows escaped alive.
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I did not see the game. What happened?
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I did not see the game. What happened?
It took Penn State 18 minutes to reach double digits and scoring, and then Wisconsin won on a Wahl shot in the final minute.
I’m still in the middle of watching the second half, after plans pulled me away. That said, Davis had his first three jumpers blocked. He is in some kind of funk.
Oh, UW also blew a 9-point lead in the last four minutes. This team has a bit of a feel of the 2016-17 team that limped through a stretch of playing so-so but surviving before taking a set of losses and then finding their footing. Ideally they dodge the middle part.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FK8DfqFVcAAwLSS?format=jpg&name=small)
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I'm realizing Wisconsin is again gonna catch MSU off a dumb loss. Considering how UW looked this weekend, take the Spartans to cover.
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The only unexpected result this weekend was Illinois' win in Bloomington so the projections are only slightly changed. Projected final standings/BTT seeds:
- 15-5/26-5 Purdue
- 15-5/24-7 Michigan State
- 15-5/23-8 Illinois
- 13-5/20-7 Ohio State
- 14-6/23-7 Wisconsin
- 11-9/17-13 Rutgers
- 10-9/20-10 Iowa
- 10-10/19-11 Indiana
- 7-12/12-15 Penn State
- 7-13/13-17 Michigan (wins tie over UMD/NU based on H2H2H, no games in Evanston or College Park)
- 7-13/14-15 Maryland (loses tie to M based on H2H2H, beats UMD based on record against the 15-5 teams)
- 7-13/14-15 Northwestern
- 6-13/15-13 Minnesota
- 0-019/6-24 Nebraska
Tiebreaker for the 15-5 teams:
- H2H2H: PU is 2-1 (no home game against MSU, sweep of IL). MSU is 2-1 (no game in W. Lafayette). IL is 1-3 (split with MSU, sweep by PU)
- PU beats MSU based on record against tOSU, no game in Columbus)
Thus, the match-ups at the B1G Tournament in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:
- #11 Maryland vs #14 Nebraska, 830 BTN
- #12 Northwestern vs #13 Minnesota, 6 BTN
Thursday, March 10, 2022:
- #5 Wisconsin vs NU/MN, 230 BTN
- #6 Rutgers vs UMD/UNL, 9 BTN
- #7 Iowa vs #10 Michigan, 630 BTN
- #8 Indiana vs #9 Penn State, noon BTN
Friday, March 11, 2022:
- #1 Purdue vs IU/PSU, noon BTN
- #2 Michigan State vs IA/M, 630 BTN
- #3 Illinois vs RU/UMD/UNL, 9 BTN
- #4 Ohio State vs UW/NU/MN, 230 BTN
Saturday, March 12, 2022:
- PU/IU/PSU vs tOSU/UW/NU/MN, 1 CBS
- MSU/IA/M vs IL/RU/UMD/UNL, 330 CBS
Sunday, March 13, 2022:
- PU/IU/PSU/tOSU/UW/NU/MN vs MSU/IA/M/IL/RU/UMD/UNL, 330 CBS
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We have a pretty busy week (Tues-Thurs) with all 14 teams in action and two of them in action twice (PU and M both play on Tuesday then play each other on Thursday):
- UW at MSU Tuesday at 7 on BTN
- IL at PU Tuesday at 9 on ESPN
- M at PSU Tuesday at 9 on ESPN2
- IU at NU Tuesday at 9 on BTN
- tOSU at RU Wednesday at 7 on BTN
- MN at UNL Wednesday at 9 on BTN
- IA at UMD Thursday at 7 on ESPN2/ESPN3
- PU at M Thursday at 9 on ESPN
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I'm realizing Wisconsin is again gonna catch MSU off a dumb loss. Considering how UW looked this weekend, take the Spartans to cover.
I think having Wahl will make a difference, but Davison and Davis need to get back to form. Otherwise, this one is a laugher.
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Looking at the standings there is a pretty clear gap between the top-5 which each have three or less losses and the next group which each have five or more losses. That can change but it probably will not change unless it starts this week.
Looking at the top-5:
- 10-2 Illinois visits 9-3 Purdue. We project a Purdue win.
- 9-3 Purdue hosts 10-2 Illinois and visits 5-5 Michigan. We project two PU wins.
- 9-3 Wisconsin visits 8-3 Michigan State. We project an MSU win.
- 8-3 Michigan State hosts 9-3 Wisconsin. We project an MSU win.
- 7-3 Ohio State visits 7-5 Rutgers. We project an RU win.
Then looking at the five and six loss teams:
- 7-5 Indiana visits 4-8 Northwestern, we project an NU win.
- 7-5 Rutgers hosts 7-3 Ohio State, we project a RU win.
- 5-5 Michigan visits 4-7 Penn State and hosts 9-3 Purdue, we project TWO M losses.
- 5-6 Iowa visits 3-9 Maryland, we project a UMD win.
If the five and six loss teams go 0-fer this weekend you can pretty much pencil in the top-5 as the top-5 because #6 and below will be too far behind to have much chance of catching up.
If all goes as projected except that tOSU wins in Piscataway then the standings heading into this weekend will be:
- 11-3 Purdue
- 10-3 Illinois
- 9-3 Michigan State
- 8-3 Ohio State
- 9-4 Wisconsin
- 7-6 Indiana
- 7-6 Rutgers
- 5-7 Michigan
- 5-7 Iowa
- 5-7 Penn State
- 5-8 Northwestern
- 4-9 Maryland
- 3-9 Minnesota
- 0-13 Nebraska
In my view that gap would be far too large for IU/RU/M/IA/PSU to overcome.
Conversely, if the 5/6 loss teams all win then the standings will be (everything else as projected):
- 10-3 Illinois
- 9-3 Michigan State
- 10-4 Purdue
- 9-4 Wisconsin
- 7-4 Ohio State
- 8-5 Indiana
- 8-5 Rutgers
- 7-5 Michigan
- 6-6 Iowa
- 4-8 Penn State
- 4-9 Northwestern
- 3-9 Minnesota
- 3-10 Maryland
- 0-13 Nebraska
In that case the Hoosiers, Scarlet Knights, Wolverines, and Hawkeyes are still in position to potentially catch at least the last few teams in the top-5.
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With the win on Saturday over Michigan, Purdue becomes the first program in conference to amass 1,000 Big Ten Conference wins.
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With the win on Saturday over Michigan, Purdue becomes the first program in conference to amass 1,000 Big Ten Conference wins.
Go Purdue. More so on beating the Skunkweasels, but also on being pretty awesome for so many decades.
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With the win on Saturday over Michigan, Purdue becomes the first program in conference to amass 1,000 Big Ten Conference wins.
Congratulations Purdue. Do you have a list of conference wins by program?
I'm curious how it would break down.
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Congratulations Purdue. Do you have a list of conference wins by program?
I'm curious how it would break down.
Not quite... I found overall records, but not by conference wins: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/conferences/big-ten/schools.html
Purdue narrowly edges Illinois and Indiana in win%. Maryland actually beats all in win%, but it only counts their last 8 seasons, not their entire history, so the sample size is limited.
My guess is that with Indiana coming into the conference one year after Purdue, and Illinois coming in 6 years after Purdue, they'll both hit that 1,000 mark relatively soon. Without the numbers, I can't tell if Indiana would do so this year but I can't imagine it being much more than 1-2 years away, and similar for Illinois as we're now in 20-game conference seasons so they'll catch up faster than they might have back in the early 19-oughts and 19-teens.
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I think having Wahl will make a difference, but Davison and Davis need to get back to form. Otherwise, this one is a laugher.
In EL is always, always tough.
Also, they played like fried butt on Saturday. OOf.
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Congratulations Purdue. Do you have a list of conference wins by program?
I'm curious how it would break down.
The programs wiki page has conference wins by team. I looked up OSU and IU after I read the Purdue milestone.
From Memory:
OSU has 840
IU has 973
EDIT: wiki has Illinois at 973 also.
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Then looking at the five and six loss teams:
- 7-5 Indiana visits 4-8 Northwestern, we project a UMD win.
- 7-5 Rutgers hosts 7-3 Ohio State, we project a RU win.
- 5-5 Michigan visits 4-7 Penn State and hosts 9-3 Purdue, we project TWO M losses.
- 5-6 Iowa visits 3-9 Maryland, we project a UMD win.
That's impressive! ;)
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That's impressive! ;)
Sorry, typo. Fixed.
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The programs wiki page has conference wins by team. I looked up OSU and IU after I read the Purdue milestone.
From Memory:
OSU has 840
IU has 973
EDIT: wiki has Illinois at 973 also.
Per wiki, B1G Basketball started in 1906 (Minnesota won at 6-1). It notes that IU did not compete in BB in 1907 or 1908 (why?).
Ohio State joined in 1913 so part of tOSU's win deficit relative to PU, IU, and IL is the up to seven less seasons but that doesn't explain it all because tOSU is 133 behind IU/IL and 160 behind PU.
Ohio State Basketball is highly inconsistent unlike football where the Buckeyes are pretty clearly the most consistently good team in the country.
B1G BB programs:
(https://i.imgur.com/Rwm1RrR.png)
That last table is league titles, 1951-2021 to make it a fair comparison for MSU.
Some things that stand out:
- Indiana has been REALLY good at converting F4's to NC's. They "only" have eight F4's which is behind MSU and tOSU (10 each) and barely ahead of M (6) but they have more NC's than MSU (2), tOSU (1), and M (1) combined.
- Michigan has been REALLY good at converting NCAA appearances into S16's. They are tied for 7th/8th in the league with "only" 27 NCAA appearances but they are third in the league in S16's with 16.
- Ohio State has been REALLY good at converting NCAA appearances and particularly S16's into F4's. The Buckeyes are 5th in the league with "only" 30 NCAA appearances but fully one-third of those have resulted in a F4 appearance. Moreover, 10 of tOSU's 14 S16 appearances have resulted in a F4.
- Purdue . . . What can you say about Purdue . . . They are REALLY good in the regular season with the most league titles and the first team to reach 1,000 league wins. They are also third in NCAA appearances with 32 but sixth in the league with only 12 S16's and tied for 8th/9th with only two F4's. They also have no NC's which is odd for a team with such a strong regular season performance history. They are obviously very consistent because you don't get to 1,000 wins on 24 league titles and a bunch of crap but their ceiling has been lower than a slew of teams that aren't nearly as good consistently.
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Going to try to post an updated NCAA and NIT Bracketology each week, simply 2/3 SOR, and 1/3 KenPom. Things should come into focus more as we go on. Still have some outliers.
For auto-bid purposes, I'm assuming whoever is in first gets the autobid, but that the highest ranked KenPom team wins the tournament
February 6 update
NCAA
SOUTH
- #1 Auburn vs. #16 Gardner Webb/Colgate
- #8 Connecticut vs. #9 INDIANA
- #5 MICHIGAN STATE vs. #12 UAB
- #4 UCLA vs. #13 Wagner
- #3 Houston vs. #14 Furman
- #6 Murray State vs. #11 Notre Dame
- #7 Wyoming vs. #10 San Francisco
- #2 Baylor vs. #15 Liberty
MIDWEST
- #1 Kansas vs. #16 Texas Southern/Nicholls State
- #8 Loyola(Chi) vs. #9 IOWA
- #5 Marquette vs. #12 Saint Louis
- #4 WISCONSIN vs. #13 South Dakota State
- #3 Tennessee vs. #14 Toledo
- #6 Iowa State vs. #11 Colorado State
- #7 Saint Mary's vs. #10 Seton Hall
- #2 Duke vs. #15 Montana State
EAST
- #1 PURDUE vs. #16 Norfolk State
- #8 Arkansas vs. #9 Davidson
- #5 OHIO STATE vs. #12 Florida/Ohio
- #4 Providence vs. #13 Vermont
- #3 Villanova vs. #14 Towson
- #6 Texas vs. #11 Iona
- #7 Wake Forest vs. #10 TCU
- #2 Kentucky vs. #15 Princeton
WEST
- #1 Arizona vs. #16 South Alabama
- #8 Xavier vs. #9 North Carolina
- #5 LSU vs. #12 BYU/Miami
- #4 ILLINOIS vs. #13 NM State
- #3 Texas Tech vs. #14 Oakland
- #6 Alabama vs. #11 Belmont
- #7 USC vs. #10 Boise State
- #2 Gonzaga vs. #15 UC Irvine
NIT
MORGANTOWN
- #1 West Virginia vs. #8 UNC Wilmington
- #4 Dayton vs. #5 Virginia Tech
- #3 Creighton vs. #6 Fresno State
- #2 MICHIGAN vs. #7 Cleveland State
DENTON
- #1 North Texas vs. #8 New Orleans
- #4 Dayton vs. #5 Texas A&M
- #3 SMU vs. #6 PENN STATE
- #2 Oklahoma vs. #7 Arkansas State
EUGENE
- #1 Oregon vs. #8 Yale
- #4 Oklahoma State vs. #5 MINNESOTA
- #3 Stanford vs. #6 South Carolina
- #2 San Diego State vs. #7 CS Fullerton
STARKVILLE
- #1 Mississippi State vs. #8 Southern
- #4 VCU vs. #5 Florida State
- #3 Kansas State vs. #6 Cincinnati
- #2 Chattanooga vs. #7 Longwood
- Rutgers - #3 team out
- Northwestern - #10 team out
- Maryland - #20 team out
- Nebraska - n/a
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In Lunardi's latest we still have seven teams in with none on the bubble. The teams are:
- #1 Purdue
- #3 Illinois
- #4 Wisconsin, Michigan State
- #5 Ohio State
- #7 Indiana, Iowa
Based on historic performance by those seeds since the expansion to 64 those seeds, on average, would result in:
- 5.26 teams in the R32
- 3.03 teams in the S16
- 1.44 teams in the E8
- 0.81 teams in the F4
- 0.41 teams in the NC
- 0.22 NC's
Method:
In opening round games:
- #1 seeds win 99.31% of the time, we have one so that makes 0.9931 teams in the R32.
- #3 seeds win 84.72% of the time, we have one so that makes 0.8472 teams in the R32, cumulatively 1.8403.
- #4 seeds win 78.47% of the time, we have two so that makes 1.5694 teams in the R32, cumulatively 3.4097.
- #5 seeds win 64.58% of the time, we have one so that makes 0.6458 teams in the R32, cumulatively 4.0556 (Ie, one of the top five teams/seeds statistically will lose the opener and it is most likely to be #5 tOSU but not altogether unlikely to be an even higher seed).
- #7 seeds win 60.42% of the time, we have two so that makes 1.2083 teams in the R32, cumulatively 5.2639.
To get to the S16:
- #1 seeds make the second weekend 85.42% of the time, we have one so that makes 0.8542 teams in the S16.
- #3 seeds make the second weekend 52.08% of the time, we have one so that makes 0.5208 teams in the S16, cumulatively 1.3750.
- #4 seeds make the second weekend 46.53% of the time, we have two so that makes 0.9306 teams in the S16, cumulatively 2.3056.
- #5 seeds make the second weekend 34.03% of the time, we have one so that makes 0.3403 teams in the S16, cumulatively 2.6458.
- #7 seeds make the second weekend 19.44% of the time, we have two so that makes 0.3839 teams in the S16, cumulatively 3.0347.
To get to the E8:
- #1 seeds win a S16 game 69.44% of the time. We have one so that makes 0.6944 teams in the E8.
- #3 seeds win a S16 game 25.69% of the time. We have one so that makes 0.2569 teams in the E8, cumulatively 0.9514.
- #4 seeds win a S16 game 14.58% of the time. We have two so that makes 0.2917 teams in the E8, cumulatively 1.2431.
- #5 seeds win a S16 game 6.25% of the time. We have one so that makes 0.0625 teams in the E8, cumulatively 1.3056.
- #7 seeds win a S16 game 6.94% of the time (more often than #5 seeds 10 times vs 9). We have two so that makes 0.1389 teams in the E8, cumulatively 1.4444.
To get to the F4:
- #1 seeds make the F4 41.67% of the time, we have one so that makes 0.4167 teams in the F4.
- #3 seeds make the F4 11.81% of the time, we have one so that makes 0.1181 teams in the F4, cumulatively 0.5347 (ie, roughly a 50/50 chance that either PU or IL makes the F4).
- #4 seeds make the F4 9.03% of the time, we have two so that makes 0.1806 teams in the F4, cumulatively 0.7153.
- #5 seeds make the F4 4.86% of the time, we have one so that makes 0.0486 teams in the F4, cumulatively 0.7639.
- #7 seeds make the F4 2.08% of the time, we have two so that makes 0.0417 teams in the F4, cumulatively 0.8056.
To get to the NC:
- #1 seeds win a F4 game 25.69% of the time. We have one so that makes 0.2569 teams in the NC.
- #3 seeds win a F4 game 7.64% of the time. We have one so that makes 0.0764 teams in the NC, cumulatively 0.3333 (ie, a one in three chance that either PU or IL makes the NC).
- #4 seeds win a F4 game 2.08% of the time. We have two so that makes 0.0417 teams in the NC, cumulatively 0.3750.
- #5 seeds win a F4 game 2.08% of the time. We have one so that makes 0.0208 teams in the NC, cumulatively 0.3958.
- #7 seeds win a F4 game 0.69% of the time. We have two so that makes 0.0139 teams in the NC, cumulatively 0.4097 (ie, a slightly less than 50/50 chance that one of our teams makes the NC)
To win the NC:
- #1 seeds win the NC 15.97% of the time, we have one so that makes 0.1597 NC's.
- #3 seeds win the NC 2.78% of the time, we have one so that makes 0.0278 NC's, cumulatively 0.1875.
- #4 seeds win the NC 0.69% of the time, we have two so that makes 0.0139 NC's, cumulatively 0.2014.
- #5 seeds have never won an NC.
- #7 seeds win the NC 0.69% of the time, we have two so that makes 0.0139 NC's, cumulatively 0.2153 NC's.
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Two straight years without a PG leads to some tough offense to watch.
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3-4 in their last 7. 4 of those 7 against teams not sniffing the tourney. Before that was a buzzer beater home win over Minnesota
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Stealing from my post on another board:
This game reminded me of some of the early big wins this year because there is simply no give up in this team. Plenty of good squads see MSU make that push and get overtaken. This team never did. They matched buckets, they eventually made a few plays to pull away. This isn't to say they have that "clutch" magic, but man, they do not back down at all.
And they needed that because woo boy did they do a lot of stuff you can't on the road. Just a litany of shitty offensive outcomes, missed open looks with some bad defensive miscues mixed in. Seven turnovers is great, but man did some look ugly. Not to mention the free throws.
It's also interesting to note that MSU has a ton of talent, but man, they are missing 1-2 motherfuckers. Like, lots of guys can be super on any night, but not a lot of guys are usually super. When your best player is a power wing who specializes in spot up 3s, that's not ideal.
But after that, if UW just avoids any slip ups, it very likely goes into that second-to-last game vs Purdue at home with a chance to either functionally or actually clinch a conference title.
Also, question for @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) : Is Houser a good post defender? I was under the impression he was a bad defender, but UW didn't try to punish him inside when he was at center.
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I wouldn't say MSU has a ton of talent. They have a ton of Big Ten caliber players. They have like 9 guys who would be a good 3rd option.
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I wouldn't say MSU has a ton of talent. They have a ton of Big Ten caliber players. They have like 9 guys who would be a good 3rd option.
I meant in the sense they have six top-60 recruits and nine top-100 guys. Which means most of those guys have some ceiling to them, even if they're not playing at the top end of that.
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I think it's more that they all have high floors. None are busts. But, as I said, none look like good first or second options.
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Hardy har har.
(https://i.imgur.com/1fClmbh.png)
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Hardy har har.
(https://i.imgur.com/1fClmbh.png)
SHHHHHHH. We want in-state, All-American quality players having their best offers as Iowa/Wisconsin/Minnesota. Keep that s%&( quiet.
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I think it's more that they all have high floors. None are busts. But, as I said, none look like good first or second options.
Interesting. In my more limited (and maybe a bit more optimistic) perspective, it seems like the young guards, Bingham and Hall all have moments where you say "Well tip your hat, they just made a play that only one Badger can make." But none actually take the reins and do it consistently.
Two other observations:
1. MSU is becoming an example of why I roll my eyes at "depth" on a basketball team. MSU has a ton of bench guys getting a good bit of work, and that's because they have like two that actually grab their role and just take it. And Christie is one of those guys.
2. The recent Tyson Walker slippage has been notable. When he came over, I was annoyed becuase UW also had a new point on its wish list. But man, after a nice game against the Badgers in Madison, he's been kinda brutal.
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SHHHHHHH. We want in-state, All-American quality players having their best offers as Iowa/Wisconsin/Minnesota. Keep that s%&( quiet.
Yeah...
Too bad UW can't keep any of the blue chips home.
Like Joey Joe Joe. ;)
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Ohio State's home game against Nebraska (postponed on January 22 due to COVID issues) has been rescheduled for Tuesday, March 1.
As an Ohio State fan I see this as a good news/bad news situation. It is good because it is Nebraska at home which should be an easy win but bad because the Buckeyes will now be playing Izzo's Spartans in March on a short turnaround. The Buckeyes schedule in that stretch is now:
- Thursday, 2/24 at Illinois
- Sunday, 2/27 at Maryland
- Tuesday, 3/1 vs Nebraska
- Thursday, 3/3 vs Michigan State
Full Disclosure, MSU's schedule is actually even tougher at that time because they also have a game rescheduled due to COVID on the first of March:
- Tuesday, 2/22 at Iowa
- Saturday, 2/26 vs Purdue
- Tuesday, 3/1 at Michigan
- Thursday, 3/3 at Ohio State
As I see it the Spartans have tougher games but more favorable spacing while the Buckeyes have easier games but less favorable spacing. Ie, that three games in five days stretch will be tough for the Buckeyes even though Maryland isn't great and Nebraska is terrible.
I frankly think that the MSU/tOSU game on March 3 will be some pretty bad BB as both teams figure to be exhausted.
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Hardy har har.
(https://i.imgur.com/1fClmbh.png)
Recruiting rankings are hit or miss, especially when you have coaches who not only can identify talent but also develop it.
Zach Edey, Destroyer of Worlds, was ranked 440th nationally.
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As I see it these next two games for Ohio State are critical to the outcome of the season for the Buckeyes because of the remaining games these are probably two of the most likely to go either way.
With UW's upset of MSU in E. Lansing and tOSU/UNL being rescheduled the tier system now projects tOSU as the fourth place team in the conference but they project to finish just 1/2 game out of first (three way tie between PU, IL, and UW at 15-5) and just 1/2 game ahead of fifth (MSU at 14-6). Thus:
- One extra win gets the Buckeyes a projected outright B1G Championship and
- One extra loss means the Buckeyes have to play on Thursday in the BTT as the #5 seed.
Things project to be VERY close at the top with five teams all within one game of each other for the top five spots.
Ohio State's nine (or 10) remaining games ranked from most likely win to most likely loss, IMHO:
- vs Nebraska on 3/1
- vs Minnesota on 2/15
- vs Indiana on 2/19
- vs Iowa (if rescheduled)
- vs Michigan on 3/6
- at Rutgers tonight
- at Maryland on 2/27
- vs Michigan State on 3/3
- at Michigan on 2/12
- at Illinois on 2/24
*Michigan: I really don't know what to do with games against the Wolverines. By talent even the home game could easily be a loss but by performance even the road game should be a win. Who knows.
Rutgers at home is hard to get a read on. There is the good:
- Beat Purdue
- Beat Michigan State
- Beat Michigan
- Blew out Nebraska
And there is the bad:
- Barely beat Iowa
- Lost to Maryland
Ohio State on the road is similarly up and down. There is the good:
- Beat Penn State
- Beat Minnesota
- Almost beat Purdue
And there is the bad:
- Needed OT to beat Nebraska
- Blown out by Indiana
- Lost to Wisconsin (not very competitive)
So yeah, I see this as a game that could go either way.
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The tOSU@RU and PU@M games tonight and tomorrow will shape the rest of the league race.
The standings are a bit convoluted due to the unequal number of games being worse than usual due to COVID postponements but as I see it we have:
- The three loss teams: PU 10-3, UW 10-3, IL 10-3, tOSU 7-3
- The four loss team: MSU 8-4
- The five loss teams: RU 7-5, M 6-5
- The six loss teams: IU 7-6, IA 5-6
If the Buckeyes and Boilermakers win this week that all but eliminates the Scarlet Knights, Wolverines, Hoosiers, and Hawkeyes from any chance at a top-4 seed (and Thursday bye). At that point RU and M would have two more losses than #5 MSU and three more losses than the league leaders and that is too big of a hill to climb with only 6-9 games left. Conversely, if the Scarlet Knights and Wolverines both win then we'd have three four-loss teams (MSU, PU, tOSU) and two five-loss teams (RU, M) all in contention with each other.
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Recruiting rankings are hit or miss, especially when you have coaches who not only can identify talent but also develop it.
Zach Edey, Destroyer of Worlds, was ranked 440th nationally.
Y’all want Joey Hauser? He was highly rated …
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We are getting really close to being able to talk about Locks but probably not quite yet.
As in the past, I use a VERY literal definition of "Lock" which I know that @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) concurs with but others may disagree. As I see it, and I'm pretty sure that ELA agrees, a "Lock" is a team that could:
- Lose every remaining scheduled game, and
- Get the worst possible opponent in their BTT opener, and
- Lose their BTT opener, and
- Face a relatively strong bubble, and
- Still would make the Tournament.
Thus, IMHO, only Purdue at this point is possibly a lock and even for them it is debatable. They are 10-3/21-3 and their seven remaining scheduled games are:
- at Michigan
- vs Maryland
- at Northwestern
- vs Rutgers
- at Michigan State
- at Wisconsin
- vs Indiana
If they lost all of those that would include some pretty bad losses and they'd be 10-10/21-10 heading into the BTT. That record would likely get them somewhere around the 6-10 seed in the BTT. The worst-case-scenario there would be to get the #6 seed then have Nebraska upset the #11 in the 11/14 game on Wednesday leading to Purdue facing Nebraska and losing to them in their BTT opener. 21-11 isn't bad but finishing on an eight-game losing streak including losses to Maryland, Northwestern, Rutgers, and Nebraska certainly wouldn't be ideal. I'd put this worst-case-scenario for Purdue at somewhere around a 50/50 shot at the Tournament so right now I don't think they are a Lock just yet.
That said, they are REALLY close and a win in Ann Arbor tomorrow night probably locks it up. If not, then backing that up with a home win over Maryland this weekend absolutely seals it. At that point they'd be 12-3/23-3 and their worst-case-scenario would be 12-8/23-9.
Wisconsin (19-4 overall) along with Illinois and Michigan State (both 17-6 overall) aren't far behind.
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UW could bottom out at 19-13. With their set of wins, that’s a lock.
(I guess they could get burned by bad losses, just because they still have two gimmies, but still, you gotta be something weird schedule-wise to be out with 19 wins as a Big Ten team)
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UW could bottom out at 19-13. With their set of wins, that’s a lock.
(I guess they could get burned by bad losses, just because they still have two gimmies, but still, you gotta be something weird schedule-wise to be out with 19 wins as a Big Ten team)
I get 19-12. They are currently 19-4 so the worst-case-scenario is:
- Lose at home to RU on 2/12, 19-5
- Lose at IU on 2/15, 19-6
- Lose at home to M on 2/20, 19-7
- Lose at MN on 2/23, 19-8
- Lose at RU on 2/26, 19-9
- Lose at home to PU on 3/1, 19-10
- Lose at home to UNL on 3/6, 19-11
- Lose BTT opener, 19-12
You are *probably* right and it is all academic anyway because Wisconsin isn't realistically going to lose ALL the rest of their games but if they did those would include some BAD losses and finishing on an eight-game losing streak obviously isn't good.
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UW could bottom out at 19-13. With their set of wins, that’s a lock.
(I guess they could get burned by bad losses, just because they still have two gimmies, but still, you gotta be something weird schedule-wise to be out with 19 wins as a Big Ten team)
Remaining schedule:
Sat: RU
2/15: @IU
2/20: UM
2/23: @MN
2/26: @RU
3/1: PU
3/6: UNL
Any road win is questionable. They should handle RU, UM and UNL at home. They already beat PU on the road. If they finish 4-3, they are in great shape.
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I think the basketball recruiting rankings, particularly for PGs and bigs are meh now. The bestp layer typically find their way to a prep school, so the ones that don't, don't really get scouted playing HS ball, just AAU, and nothing about that highlights how PG and big play will translate.
Looking at the MSU 2018 class (which would be seniors now)...
The highest rated player was #66 Marcus Bingham Jr. He is finally showing flashes this year, but MSU took him over Treveon Williams, because Williams was fat, and Bingham could shoot 3s, and projected better. Nope
Next was Foster Loyer at #96. He is the all time leading scorer in Michigan HS history, MSU offered him as a sophomore, and he never grew. His dad is 6'7", his brother is 6'7", he was a 6'0" 15 year old...who never grew another inch. He transferred to Davidson
Gabe Brown was #101, and only because of a late boost. When he committed, I think MSU was his only high major offer, and now he's the best player on the team, maybe?
Then you drop down to Aaron Henry at #140. MSU only offered him after missing out on a bunch of higher priority guys, and Gary Harris staked his reputation on him. He almost went pro after 2 years, came back for his junior year, and basically single-handidly dragged MSU into the tourney.
Thomas Kithier was #161, but that was another weird one. When the initial rankings came out, he was the top player in the state. But he missed his whole junior year with an injury, and then transferred his senior year, but was declared ineligible because it was deemed the transfer was for athletic purposes. So he fell, because he didn't play for 2 years, but he's another guy who stopped growing. He transferred to Valparaiso.
So you start with the guys who were the top 2 players in the state at the time they committed (Loyer and Kithier), and wound up not even being Big Ten caliber players. Then you take the guy who winds up the #1 player in the state (Bingham), based solely on projections, and the guy MSU passed on (Williams), absolutely blew past him. The two best players in that class were outside the top 100.
Actually, MSU has taken 4 players outside the top 100 since 2016. And I'd say the hit rate has been pretty damn good. Julian Marble looks like his rating suggested, but then Xavier Tillman, Gabe Brown, Aaron Henry. The weird part is that Brown and Henry played positions that are usually a little more translatable, so they shouldn't have slipped through the cracks.
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Iowa retiring everyone's number at once?
https://twitter.com/IowaHoops/status/1491485441035542531?t=U6_-KRVc7kAmoHtLnUfnFg&s=19
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Nebraska's home game tonight against Minnesota is probably their best remaining chance to get a win in league play this year which matters a little because no B1G team has gone winless in league play in over 20 years:
- 3-16 UNL finished last in 2021
- 2-18 UNL finished last in 2020
- 4-16 NU finished last in 2019 (UNL was second-to-last at 6-14)
- 3-15 RU finished last in 2018 (UNL was 13-6 tied for 4th/5th)
- 3-15 RU finished last in 2017 (UNL was 6-12 and tied for 12th/13th)
- 1-17 RU finished last in 2016 (UNL was 6-12 and 12th)
- 2-16 RU finished last in 2015 (UNL was 5-13 and 12th)
- 5-13 PU finished last in 2014 (UNL was 11-7 and 6th of 12)
- 2-16 PSU finished last in 2013 (UNL was 5-13 and 10th of 12)
- 4-14 UNL finished tied for 11th/12th of 11 in 2012
- 3-15 IU finished last in 2011 (pre-Nebraska)
- 3-15 PSU finished last in 2010
- 1-17 IU finished last in 2009
- 1-17 NU finished last in 2008
- 2-14 PSU/NU tied for 10th/11th in 2007
- 3-13 PU finished last in 2006
- 1-15 PSU finished last in 2005
- 3-13 MN and PSU tied for 10th/11th in 2004
- 2-14 PSU finished last in 2003
- 3-13 PSU finished last in 2002
- 3-13 NU finished last in 2001
- 0-16 Northwestern finished winless in 2000
That is so long ago that Nebraska Maryland, and Rutgers weren't in the B1G yet, the B1G was still the Big11Ten, and Penn State was still a very new member. In 10 years in the league Nebraska has finished last three times (looking like 4/11 after this year) and they have finished with a winning record twice. Ie, they've finished dead last twice as often as they've had a winning record.
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The "Go to bed angry" Bucks returned tonight.
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The "Go to bed angry" Bucks returned tonight.
Oh so close.
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Nebraska's home game tonight against Minnesota is probably their best remaining chance to get a win in league play this year which matters a little because no B1G team has gone winless in league play in over 20 years:
Congratulations to Nebraska on avoiding the 0-fer.
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4 minutes left, OSU up 8 with the ball. I think one more basket will about end this.
Instead Rutger goes on a 10-0 run to end the game.
I wasn't watching, just getting game cast updates. Where was Liddell for the last 4 minutes?
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4 minutes left, OSU up 8 with the ball. I think one more basket will about end this.
Instead Rutger goes on a 10-0 run to end the game.
I wasn't watching, just getting game cast updates. Where was Liddell for the last 4 minutes?
Same here, I wasn't watching, just getting updates from my phone but I did watch the B1G YouTube and it was frustrating to watch. Zed Key got fouled with 3:48 to go and the Bucks up six, 62-56. That instigated the U4 timeout and when they came back Key made both FT's to put the Bucks up eight, 64-56, they obviously never scored again. Ending possessions:
- RU, Geo Baker missed a three
- tOSU, EJ Liddell turnover
- RU, fouled, made both FT's, 64-58 with 3:07
- tOSU, Zed Key layup blocked
- tOSU, Jamari Wheeler missed a layup
- RU, Geo Baker made a layup, 64-60 with 2:33
- tOSU, Malaki Branham layup blocked
- RU, Geo Baker made a bucket, 64-62 with 2:03
- tOSU, turnover
- RU, Clifford Omoruyi dunked, 64-64 with 1:13 (8-0 run in less than 2 minutes to tie it up)
- tOSU, Malaki Branham missed a bucket
- RU, Geo Baker fouled by Zed Key, made both FT's, 66-64 with 0:18
- tOSU, Malaki Branham shot blocked out of bounds
- tOSU, Justin Ahrens missed a three off the in-bound pass as time expired
UGLY. They had it and it slipped away.
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I'll wait until after tonight's games to update the projections because IA@UMD and PU@M both seem like they could go either way so I want to wait for actual results before the update.
That said, there is something statistically amazing. With Nebraska's win last night over MN, Ohio State is now the only team without an upset. Every one of the Buckeyes' games has gone as projected. There have been 20 games that did NOT go as projected which is a lot but despite that, each of the 14 teams are within +/-1 of the projection because other than UNL (+1) and tOSU (no upsets) all the rest have partially or fully offsetting upsets.
Maryland (6) has the most upsets but it is three up and three down so they are on pace, same for Northwestern (4) which has the second most upsets. Two-thirds of Maryland's and half of Northwestern's are what I call "reverse splits" where the road team won both match-ups:
- UMD won at NU, lost at home to NU
- UMD won at RU, lost at home to RU
Anyway, our projections are holding up remarkably well despite all the upsets because, as I said, the upsets are mostly offsetting each other.
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An important potential tiebreaker:
In the current model Maryland and Northwestern project to finish tied for 10th/11th at 7-13:
- The first tiebreaker is H2H but they split (road team won both, see above).
- Second tiebreaker is record against the best team(s) in the league, then the next, etc. Since both are projected to go 0-fer against the top five teams in the league this basically means that the team with the most impressive upset win wins the tie. Northwestern has an upset win over MSU which is great but Maryland has an upset win over Illinois which is better so Maryland projects to win the tie.
Why the 10th/11th place tiebreaker matters:
- #10 doesn't play on Wednesday, #11 gets an easy layup game against #14 (almost certain to be Nebraska).
- #10 plays #7 on Thursday while #11 (assuming they beat #14 on Wednesday) plays #6. This is really somewhat irrelevant because #6 and #7 are both projected to be roughly .500 in the league.
- #10 plays #2 on Friday (assuming they are still alive) while #11 plays #3 (same assumption).
I honestly think that #11 gets a better deal. The easy win on Wednesday helps with win volume which is important for teams in this situation and the Thursday and Friday games are basically a wash.
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Rutgers right now projects to finish 17-13/11-9 and get the #6 seed in the BTT. Their early OOC losses are killing them. Their current NET ranking is #91 (after their two game winning streak over MSU and tOSU) and it is all because of their bad losses. They are actually 4-3 in Quad-1 games which is better than most of the league including the aforementioned Spartans (4-4) and Buckeyes (3-5). In fact there are only 18 teams in the whole country with more QUAD-1 wins than Rutgers:
- Two teams (UW and Baylor) have eight.
- Four teams (Marquette, KU, PU, Aub) have seven.
- One team (Bama) has six.
- 11 teams (ISU, TxTech, Nova, UK, IL, LSU, Gonz, Zona, Dook, Providence BoiseSt) have five.
Another 11 teams (including Rutgers) have four QUAD-1 wins but Rutgers is the lowest ranked of the group because while they have three losses in QUAD-3 and QUAD-4 games none of the others have more than one.
What is holding Rutgers back compared to the two teams they just defeated is that while the Spartans (2) and Buckeyes (1) have a combined three Quad-2 losses (and two of the three were their recent losses at Rutgers) and NOTHING worse than that the Scarlett Knights have three Quad-2 losses, two Quad-3 losses, and a Quad-4 loss. Rutgers' nine losses are to:
- Illinois on the road 86-51: #12 in NET, QUAD-1
- Seton Hall on the road 77-63: #33 in NET, QUAD-1
- Northwestern on the road in OT: #66 in NET, QUAD-1
- Penn State on the road 66-49: #89 in NET, QUAD-2
- Maryland at home 68-60: #100 in NET, QUAD-3
- Minnesota on the road 68-65: #102 in NET, QUAD-2
- DePaul on the road 73-70: #104 in NET, QUAD-2
- UMASS on the road 85-83: #176 in NET, QUAD-3
- Lafayette at home 53-51: #319 in NET, QUAD-4
Those bottom five losses are just UGLY but note that four of the five were one-possession games. That just sucks for the Scarlett Knights. If they had just made a couple more plays in each of those four games that ended up being a BAD loss they'd project as something like a #6 seed right now but instead they are barely on the fringe of the bubble.
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B1G NET rankings (Rank, Team, Record, Quad-1, Quad-2, Quad-3, Quad-4):
- #4 Purdue, 21-3, 7-2, 4-1, 3-0, 7-0
- #12 Illinois, 17-6, 5-4, 4-2, 5-0, 3-0
- #18 Ohio State, 14-6, 3-5, 3-1, 5-0, 3-0
- #19 Wisconsin, 19-4, 8-4, 3-0, 4-0, 4-0
- #20 Iowa, 15-7, 1-5, 3-2, 4-0, 7-0
- #27 Michigan State, 17-6, 4-4, 5-2, 4-0, 4-0
- #35 Indiana, 16-7, 2-4, 2-3, 4-0, 8-0
- #47 Michigan, 12-9, 1-5, 3-3, 4-1, 4-0
- #66 Northwestern, 11-10, 1-8, 2-0, 2-2, 6-0
- #89 Penn State, 9-11, 2-8, 1-2, 2-1, 4-0
- #91 Rutgers, 14-9, 4-3, 2-3, 2-2, 6-1
- #100 Maryland, 11-12, 3-6, 3-3, 1-3, 4-0
- #102 Minnesota, 11-10, 2-9, 0-0, 4-1, 5-0
- #182 Nebraska, 7-17, 0-8, 0-6, 1-2, 6-1
Rutgers is just weird. Their QUAD-1 record is better than tOSU or MSU but their QUAD-3 and QUAD-4 records are roughly equal to Nebraska.
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Iowa's NET rating is curious
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So is Wisconsin's. No losses out of Q1. 9-2 away from the Kohl Center.
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So is Wisconsin's. No losses out of Q1. 9-2 away from the Kohl Center.
I don't get why UW is behind tOSU (and a bunch of other teams). Wisconsin's eight Q1 wins are tied with Baylor for best in the land and all four losses are Q1 so nothing particularly bad. Maybe the losses are relatively worse Q1 losses than the teams ahead of them?
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I don't get why UW is behind tOSU (and a bunch of other teams). Wisconsin's eight Q1 wins are tied with Baylor for best in the land and all four losses are Q1 so nothing particularly bad. Maybe the losses are relatively worse Q1 losses than the teams ahead of them?
I don't know.
UW's losses are to Providence, @OSU, MSU and @IL.
All are ranked teams in both polls. Providence #11 in AP. OSU 16, MSU 17, IL 13.
NET #25, #18, #27 and #12, respectively.
Then you look at win quality. I don't get it.
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I don't know.
UW's losses are to Providence, @OSU, MSU and @IL.
All are ranked teams in both polls. Providence #11 in AP. OSU 16, MSU 17, IL 13.
NET #25, #18, #27 and #12, respectively.
Then you look at win quality. I don't get it.
The NET still has an efficiency ranking, I believe, so tight wins against crappy teams (which Wiscy has a few of) still weigh them down.
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Purdue needs to get their sh!t together.
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MSU women upset #4 Michigan. Ya hate to see it
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I don't know.
UW's losses are to Providence, @OSU, MSU and @IL.
All are ranked teams in both polls. Providence #11 in AP. OSU 16, MSU 17, IL 13.
NET #25, #18, #27 and #12, respectively.
Then you look at win quality. I don't get it.
This is a good point, and the reason that it doesn't track with win quality is because it's a tool that's not designed to measure that primarily. If anything, it's mostly there to track the quality of each win for assessing a resume, i.e. it's to give us that second batch of numbers.
These rankings ar basically designed to pop out a score that roughly equates to strength and how hard a team will be to play. In basketball, the main metric at its base is blending scoring and schedule. Winning big and losing close is better than losing big and winning close. Doing those things better against a better schedule is better, obviously.
I think this UW-Iowa quirk is more about UW than Iowa. Iowa is maybe a bit above where you'd expect their record to be because they've been relatively competitive in losses and dominant in wins against a pretty good schedule. UW has faced a better schedule, but is more often playing like a team worse than it's record (not being in it late in three of those losses, getting pushed by PSU at home, Minnesota at home, a Southland conference team). So that's dragging UW down. It's also worth noting that with any ranking of teams, there will be some oddities, and this just happens to be one on front street.
It's important to note these are less "rankings" in the sense that it's saying UW is definitively behind Iowa and more just stacking numbers. So they might be 0.1 points apart, which is functionally nothing. And ideally it doesn't matter because there's only really a few situations where a team's own NET should impact its tournament placement, and UW is far from those.
(There often is a complaint about this that some teams are just better at winning close games, but for the most part, barring the rare exception, previous close game success is not a predictor of future close game success)
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I think it is time to move Michigan up to tier-2 from tier-3. The difference is projected result in home games against tier-1 teams and for Michigan those are:
- vs UW, not scheduled
- vs PU, won on 2/10 (and it wasn't close)
- vs tOSU this weekend
- vs IL, 2/27
- vs MSU, 3/1
So they are 1-0 with three more to play. The thing is though that they also have two additional positive upsets:
- A win at PSU this week, and
- A blowout win at Indiana
They do have an upset home loss to Minnesota but note that the upset loss was way back in December while all three upset wins have come in the last three weeks. Ie, I think Michigan is getting better.
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New tiers:
- UW+1 (+2,-1), IL even(+2,-2), PU+1 (+2,-1), tOSU, MSU-1 (+1,-2)
- M+1 (+2,-1), IA even (+2,-2), RU even (+1,-1), IU-1 (+1,-2)
- NU even(+2,-2), PSU even(+1,-1), UMD-1 (+3,-4), MN-1 (+1,-2)
- blank
- UNL+1
The upsets so far have been:
(https://i.imgur.com/0PsOLbm.png)
The "postponed" games that have not, to my knowledge, been rescheduled are:
(https://i.imgur.com/eN3aVxb.png)
The updated projected final standings/BTT seeds are:
- 15-5/24-6 Wisconsin
- 14-6/25-6 Purdue (wins tie with IL based on H2H, won in Champaign)
- 14-6/22-9 Illinois
- 13-6/20-8 Ohio State
- 13-7/22-9 Michigan State
- 12-8/18-12 Michigan
- 11-8/21-9 Iowa
- 11-9/17-13 Rutgers
- 10-10/19-11 Indiana
- 7-13/14-15 Northwestern
- 6-13/11-16 Penn State
- 6-14/14-17 Maryland
- 5-14/14-14 Minnesota
- 1-19/7-24 Nebraska
Thus, the match-ups at the BTT in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:
- #11 Penn State vs #14 Nebraska, 830 BTN
- #12 Maryland vs #13 Minnesota, 6 BTN
Thursday, March 10, 2022:
- #5 Michigan State vs UMD/MN, 230 BTN
- #6 Michigan vs PSU/UNL, 9 BTN
- #7 Iowa vs #10 Northwestern, 630 BTN
- #8 Rutgers vs #9 Indiana, noon BTN
Friday, March 11, 2022:
- #1 Wisconsin vs RU/IU, noon BTN
- #2 Purdue vs IA/NU, 630 BTN
- #3 Illinois vs M/PSU/UNL, 9 BTN
- #4 Ohio State vs MSU/UMD/MN, 230 BTN
Saturday, March 12, 2022:
- UW/RU/IU vs tOSU/MSU/UMD/MN, 1 CBS
- PU/IA/NU vs IL/M/PSU/UNL, 330 CBS
Sunday, March 13, 2022:
- UW/RU/IU/tOSU/MSU/UMD/MN vs PU/IA/NU/IL/M/PSU/UNL, 330 CBS
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We have a busy weekend coming up with all 14 teams in action but five of the seven games involve teams in the top-half of the league hosting teams in the bottom half of the league. The two exceptions are the Michigan/Ohio State game in Ann Arbor and the PSU/MN game in Minneapolis.
Minnesota is coming off of an embarrassing loss to Nebraska so I expect them to come out mad and probably drill PSU but you never know.
Both tOSU and M project to finish in the top-half of the league. Michigan is coming off of a HUGE win over Purdue while tOSU is coming off of a heartbreaking win that got away at Rutgers so I'm not sure who that favors. Things are so close that the unexpected outcome would change a lot:
Ohio State:
If the Buckeyes win their projection improves to 14-5 and alone in second place from 13-6 and alone in fourth place.
Michigan:
If the Wolverines lose their projection drops to 11-9 and tied for 7th/8th with Rutgers from 12-8 and alone in sixth place.
The rest of the games frankly shouldn't be terribly exciting. Wisconsin, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State, and Iowa should easily win home games against Rutgers, Northwestern, Maryland, Indiana, and Nebraska respectively.
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Yeah, I'd say it's time to move M up.
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Yeah, I'd say it's time to move M up.
This makes their home game against my Buckeyes tomorrow a projected win but I'm still hopeful for my team and will not advocate moving Michigan back down even if Ohio State wins for a number of reasons including:
- Upsets happen, and
- It wouldn't be altogether shocking for Michigan to suffer a bit of a hangover effect coming off of their BIG win over projected #1 seed Purdue, and
- The game on Saturday will be Michigan's third game in five days (@PSU on 2/8, vsPU on 2/10, vstOSU on 2/12) and that can impact performance against a more rested foe.
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If the Buckeyes and Boilermakers win this week that all but eliminates the Scarlet Knights, Wolverines, Hoosiers, and Hawkeyes from any chance at a top-4 seed (and Thursday bye). At that point RU and M would have two more losses than #5 MSU and three more losses than the league leaders and that is too big of a hill to climb with only 6-9 games left. Conversely, if the Scarlet Knights and Wolverines both win then we'd have three four-loss teams (MSU, PU, tOSU) and two five-loss teams (RU, M) all in contention with each other.
Earlier this week I noted (see above) that if tOSU (@RU) and PU (@M) won it would open a significant gap between the top-5 and the bottom nine in the league. The Buckeyes and Boilermakers both lost so now it appears that instead the big gap is between the top-9 and the bottom five. Currently we have:
- Two 3-loss teams (UW, IL)
- Three 4-loss teams (PU, MSU, tOSU)
- Two 5-loss teams (RU, M)
- Two 6-loss teams (IU, IA)
- Then a big gap, then
- Two 8-loss teams (NU, PSU)
- Two 10-loss teams (UMD, MN)
- 12-loss 1-12 Nebraska
So it appears that the big gap is between the top-9 (the teams with six or less losses) and the bottom five. In my opinion the top-9 each have at least a plausible path to the Tournament while the bottom five would need miracles.
With their win over Purdue the Wolverines have to be at least on the bubble and Rutgers has plenty of quality wins they just have some disturbingly bad early OOC losses that are holding them back. Both of them could make it and the other seven would be in if the Tournament started today. Thus, as I see it we have:
- Seven teams that are either already locks or clearly "should be in". Ie, they'll make it as long as they keep pace. UW, IL, PU, MSU, tOSU, IU, IA
- Two teams that are on or reasonably close to the bubble: M, RU
- Five teams that need a miracle (probably in the form of winning the BTT): NU, PSU, UMD, MN, UNL
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The nerd's math says UW should be comfortable in a win vs. Rutgers.
Logical brain says it'll be find, but those last two Knights games got me a tad nervous.
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My son refuses to stop being an OSU fan, so as the last part of his Christmas gift we are headed to Columbus next weekend to go to the OSU-IU game, and then go to the Legoland
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My son refuses to stop being an OSU fan, so as the last part of his Christmas gift we are headed to Columbus next weekend to go to the OSU-IU game, and then go to the Legoland
That's a good lad
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My son refuses to stop being an OSU fan, so as the last part of his Christmas gift we are headed to Columbus next weekend to go to the OSU-IU game, and then go to the Legoland
The love of family that prevents you from smothering him is a biological wonder.
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My son refuses to stop being an OSU fan, so as the last part of his Christmas gift we are headed to Columbus next weekend to go to the OSU-IU game, and then go to the Legoland
Enjoy the Schott.
It and the RAC are the only B1G arenas I've seen BB games in so I imagine you'll have a better basis of comparison than me.
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Enjoy the Schott.
It and the RAC are the only B1G arenas I've seen BB games in so I imagine you'll have a better basis of comparison than me.
This will be my 6th (UM, MSU, IU, PU, PSU)
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This will be my 6th (UM, MSU, IU, PU, PSU)
Nice!
Maybe someday I'll catch all the B1G arenas. I think if I do it will be for any game rather than specifically a tOSU game.
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Well, Ohio State shuffling their schedule, has thrown a giant wrench into all of this
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Well, Ohio State shuffling their schedule, has thrown a giant wrench into all of this
Oh dear, can you swap tickets to the newly rescheduled Iowa game instead?
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Oh dear, can you swap tickets to the newly rescheduled Iowa game instead?
That's what I'm hoping to do. Pittsburgh to Columbus is not doable on a weeknight, and the hotel reservation is for Saturday night
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Minnesota at Penn State has also been rescheduled so I *think* that all teams are scheduled to play 20 league games as originally planned.
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That's what I'm hoping to do. Pittsburgh to Columbus is not doable on a weeknight, and the hotel reservation is for Saturday night
Well good luck but that 230 tip is probably a worst-case-scenario for you. Too early to do much before the game. Too late to do much after the game.
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Well good luck but that 230 tip is probably a worst-case-scenario for you. Too early to do much before the game. Too late to do much after the game.
Well, our reservation is Saturday night, so it would just cut our Saturday afternoon a little shorter, but give us more time in the morning to get there. It's increasingly clear that the in person fans are an afterthought to TV
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This will be my 6th (UM, MSU, IU, PU, PSU)
I think I'm at five: UW, Iowa, NW, MSU, Purdue.
Granted, I only have 11 teams on my list.
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Simmer down Rutgers
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UW with a "luck factor" loss to Rutgers.
Knights have been good, but UW has done a lot of playing with its food and mostly made the plays at the end. Holy hell did they not do that today.
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UW with a "luck factor" loss to Rutgers.
Knights have been good, but UW has done a lot of playing with its food and mostly made the plays at the end. Holy hell did they not do that today.
Rutgers is approaching the bubble. Their last three games are very impressive with two home wins over MSU and tOSU and now they have a marquee road win, in Madison no less. Those early OOC losses to bad teams are still a rock around their chances but . . .
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UW with a "luck factor" loss to Rutgers.
Knights have been good, but UW has done a lot of playing with its food and mostly made the plays at the end. Holy hell did they not do that today.
Rutgers is like UW's cockroaches. They don't go away and they are a pain in the ass.
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Rutgers is approaching the bubble. Their last three games are very impressive with two home wins over MSU and tOSU and now they have a marquee road win, in Madison no less. Those early OOC losses to bad teams are still a rock around their chances but . . .
Their bubble situation is wild.
As you said, three just awful losses, and they basically blew a bunch of those low-key winnable games in the first half of conference play.
Outside of Penn State at home, every game left is against someone good, and most are on the road. So if they can build the win volume to make the tournament (probably 18-13, maybe 19-14), they'll have two wins against a set of games that includes UW and Illinois at home, Purdue, Michigan, Indiana on the road (or get a BTT upset). So they gotta get to 2-3 there and not mess up Penn State at home, or make some noise wherever the tournament is this year.
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Rutgers is like UW's cockroaches. They don't go away and they are a pain in the ass.
Played that way for sure. But that said, UW missed chances to close the gap earlier (Rutgers' good shooting didn't help). UW also got things close to stabilized twice late, then let go of the rope.
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Rutgers has what has to be one of the strangest NCAA Tournament profiles I've ever seen. They are LOADED in quality wins. All of a sudden they have (tentatively right now) SIX Q1 wins. They have gained four in the last two weeks because their wins vsMSU, vstOSU, and @UW were all Q1 plus their previous home win over Michigan became a Q1 win when Michigan's demolition of Purdue moved Michigan up to #30. Thus, Rutgers is an insanely good 6-3 in Q1 games. For comparison, here are the top teams in the country:
- Gonzaga is 5-2
- Zona is 6-2
- Houston is 2-3
- Kentucky is 5-4
- NOVA is 5-5
- Baylor is 8-3
- Kansas is 7-3
- Auburn is 7-2
- Purdue is 8-3
- Tennessee is 4-6
Rutgers' 6-3 in Q1 games is comparable to pretty much any of the best teams in the nation and decidedly better than some of the top-10.
That is the good news. Now for the problem:
Those ten teams listed above have a grand combined total of just:
- Four Q2 losses
- ZERO Q3 losses
- Zero Q4 losses
Rutgers, on the other hand, has:
- Three Q2 losses (1-3)
- Two Q3 losses (2-2)
- One Q4 loss (6-1)
So if you look at Rutgers' games against quality opponents they are not just a Tournament team but a high seed. Conversely, if you look at their games against bad opponents they are not just NOT a Tournament team, they aren't even remotely close.
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I don't normally do mid-weekend let alone mid-day updates to our projections but there have been a lot of changes since I last updated and the projected finish is pretty wild so here goes, projected final standings/BTT seeds:
- 14-6/23-7 Wisconsin
- 14-6/25-6 Purdue
- 14-6/22-9 Illinois
- 14-6/21-8 Ohio State
- 13-7/22-9 Michigan State
- 12-8/18-12 Rutgers
- 12-8/18-12 Michigan
- 11-9/21-10 Iowa
- 10-10/19-11 Indiana
- 7-13/12-16 Penn State (wins tie over NU based on H2H, won in Evanston)
- 7-13/14-15 Northwestern
- 6-14/14-17 Maryland
- 5-15/14-15 Minnesota
- 1-19/7-24 Nebraska
Tiebreaker for the 14-6 teams:
The first tiebreaker is H2H2H2H where:
- UW is 3-2 (no home game against IL, won at PU)
- PU is 3-2 (no game in Columbus, won at IL, lost at home to UW)
- IL is 2-2 (no games at tOSU or UW, lost at home to PU)
- tOSU is 1-3 (no home games against PU or IL)
Thus, IL is the #3 seed and tOSU is the #4 seed while UW and PU move to the next step:
The second tiebreaker is record against the best team(s) in the league (or next best) which in this case is MSU where these two are projected to be:
- 1-1 UW, won in E Lansing, lost at home
- 0-1 PU, no home game
Thus, UW would get the #1 seed and PU would get the #2 seed
Tiebreaker for the 12-8 teams:
The first tiebreaker is H2H but Rutgers already won the game in Piscataway and is projected to lose the game in Ann Arbor so we move to step 2:
The second tiebreaker is record against the best team(s) in the league which is determined BEFORE breaking their tie so you have to look at Michigans' and Rutgers' records against the combination of UW, IL, PU, and tOSU which is projected to be:
- 5-2 RU: Does not play at tOSU, won at UW
- 3-4 M: Does not host UW
Thus, the match-ups at the BTT in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:
- #11 Northwestern vs #14 Nebraska, 830 BTN
- #12 Maryland vs #13 Minnesota, 6 BTN
Thursday, March 10, 2022:
- #5 Michigan State vs UMD/MN, 230 BTN
- #6 Rutgers vs NU/UNL, 9 BTN
- #7 Michigan vs #10 Penn State, 630 BTN
- #8 Iowa vs #9 Indiana, noon BTN
Friday, March 11, 2022:
- #1 Wisconsin vs IA/IU, noon BTN
- #2 Purdue vs M/PSU, 630 BTN
- #3 Illinois vs RU/NU/UNL, 9 BTN
- #4 Ohio State vs MSU/UMD/MN, 230 BTN
Saturday, March 12, 2022:
- UW/IA/IU vs tOSU/MSU/UMD/MN, 1 CBS
- PU/M/PSU vs IL/RU/NU/UNL, 330 CBS
Sunday, March 13, 2022:
- UW/IA/IU/tOSU/MSU/UMD/MN vs PU/M/PSU/IL/RU/NU/UNL, 330 CBS
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My thoughts on Rutgers' bubble situation:
They are currently 9-5/15-9 with plenty of quality/Q1 wins but held back by three dreadfully bad losses. We project them to finish 3-3 (win home games against IL, UW, PSU; lose road games at PU, M, IU) so they would end up 12-8/18-12 with a SLEW of quality/Q1 wins and still held back by those three bad losses.
FWIW, so long as they win the home game against PSU I think the other games are basically interchangeable so they can trade a road win for a home loss.
12-8 in the B1G would normally be an obviously tournament team but normal 12-8 B1G teams don't have losses to DePaul, Lafayette (at home no less), and UMASS on their resume.
As showed above we project them to be the #6 seed so their BTT opener would be against the #11/14 winner. I think they HAVE to win that not so much because they need the win as because they can't afford another bad loss and losing to the #11 or #14 B1G team would be a bad loss.
So beating the 11/14 winner would get them to 19-12 heading into a game against #3. Right now that projects to be Illinois but it really doesn't matter, #3 will be a very good team so a loss wouldn't really hurt. My question is would they need the win?
I'm fairly certain that getting to the weekend in Indianapolis would get Rutgers in but I feel like beating the 11/14 then losing to #3 would leave them right on the edge at 19-13 with lots of good wins and three BAD losses. A lot of it depends on how the committee evaluates things. If the committee has any recency bias that will obviously help the Scarlet Knights immensely because on December 12 they were 5-5/1-1 with all three of those BAD losses already and since then they've gone 10-4/8-4 and looked VERY MUCH like a Tournament team.
Are there any Rutgers fans on here with thoughts? What about @JerseyTerrapin (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1642) , you at least live in the area. Anyone else?
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As an Ohio State fan I'd love to believe that this result is an indication of Ohio State's strength or at least Michigan's weakness but in reality I do not think either is the case. I think this result is just because this is Michigan's third game in five days. Michigan is 3-16 from three and, IMHO that is largely a product of tired legs.
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As an Ohio State fan I'd love to believe that this result is an indication of Ohio State's strength or at least Michigan's weakness but in reality I do not think either is the case. I think this result is just because this is Michigan's third game in five days. Michigan is 3-16 from three and, IMHO that is largely a product of tired legs.
I'm just happy to see them finally get a road win over a decent team. As far as tiredness, I dunno, this is what Michigan has been all season, outside of a couple games where they were shot really well.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FLcFgHiXoAAm03q?format=jpg&name=small)
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I'm just happy to see them finally get a road win over a decent team. As far as tiredness, I dunno, this is what Michigan has been all season, outside of a couple games where they were shot really well.
I don't know what the hell to do with OSU. When they're one, they're mighty. But they seem to have weird runs of being off.
Defense is bad, backcourt is a freshman and senior transfer. Liddell is Liddell, which can be up and down on defense. And then there's that weird mix of forwards.
They're good, but how good?
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My thoughts on Rutgers' bubble situation:
...
12-8 in the B1G would normally be an obviously tournament team but normal 12-8 B1G teams don't have losses to DePaul, Lafayette (at home no less), and UMASS on their resume.
...
So beating the 11/14 winner would get them to 19-12 heading into a game against #3. Right now that projects to be Illinois but it really doesn't matter, #3 will be a very good team so a loss wouldn't really hurt. My question is would they need the win?
I'm fairly certain that getting to the weekend in Indianapolis would get Rutgers in but I feel like beating the 11/14 then losing to #3 would leave them right on the edge at 19-13 with lots of good wins and three BAD losses. A lot of it depends on how the committee evaluates things. If the committee has any recency bias that will obviously help the Scarlet Knights immensely because on December 12 they were 5-5/1-1 with all three of those BAD losses already and since then they've gone 10-4/8-4 and looked VERY MUCH like a Tournament team.
Are there any Rutgers fans on here with thoughts? What about @JerseyTerrapin (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1642) , you at least live in the area. Anyone else?
I THINK that 18-13 makes it. It's pretty hard to get to 12-8 in the Big Ten and not make it unless the conference is a mess like 2017-18.
Those losses are BAD, but I think the set of wins they need to get to 18-13 are enough. They might be an 11 seed, but you gotta put 36 at-large teams in. And it gets LEAN at the end. Big conference teams are holding more of those spots than it felt like historically, and some it's not like the Pac 12 or SEC are usually covering themselves in glory.
But, Rutgers does have to get to 18-13 or better. If they're 19-13, I'd say close to a lock.
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Well, our reservation is Saturday night, so it would just cut our Saturday afternoon a little shorter, but give us more time in the morning to get there. It's increasingly clear that the in person fans are an afterthought to TV
Fortunately, I bought my tickets through Ohio State, rather than through StubHub, so I'm hoping they can just switch them to the Iowa game. Iowa game. But worst case scenario, they've offered me the option to cancel. So I can cancel them, and then just buy Iowa tickets. StubHub doesn't offer you a refund option unless the game is actually cancelled
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Fortunately, I bought my tickets through Ohio State, rather than through StubHub, so I'm hoping they can just switch them to the Iowa game. Iowa game. But worst case scenario, they've offered me the option to cancel. So I can cancel them, and then just buy Iowa tickets. StubHub doesn't offer you a refund option unless the game is actually cancelled
Good deal, hope it works out for you and your little Ohio State fan.
On that note, while it is maybe a bit annoying for a Spartan to have a Buckeye, that isn't THAT bad. How do his Wolverine Grandparents feel?
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I don't know what the hell to do with OSU. When they're one, they're mighty. But they seem to have weird runs of being off.
Defense is bad, backcourt is a freshman and senior transfer. Liddell is Liddell, which can be up and down on defense. And then there's that weird mix of forwards.
They're good, but how good?
Ya know, it *FEELS* like Ohio State is up and down but oddly, per our tier system they were the only team in the league with no upsets before they beat Michigan yesterday and even that, I think, had more to do it being Michigan's third game in five days and them not having the legs for long shots.
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Good deal, hope it works out for you and your little Ohio State fan.
On that note, while it is maybe a bit annoying for a Spartan to have a Buckeye, that isn't THAT bad. How do his Wolverine Grandparents feel?
They wonder where they went wrong
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Good news for Purdue:
They just had I think a 19-0 run.
Bad news for Purdue:
They needed that to gain a one point lead over Maryland at home.
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I think I figured out Rutgers.
Against much of the non-conference schedule, they played like a team set to battle Nebraska for last.
Against the bottom third of the conference, they played like a solid 11th place team.
Against the top 2/3rds of the league, they play like a Big Ten champ.
See. Figured out.
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I think I figured out Rutgers.
Against much of the non-conference schedule, they played like a team set to battle Nebraska for last.
Against the bottom third of the conference, they played like a solid 11th place team.
Against the top 2/3rds of the league, they play like a Big Ten champ.
See. Figured out.
Yep, that is it.
Makes no sense whatsoever but you've got it.
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Bo Boroski making more fans I see
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I think I figured out Rutgers.
Against much of the non-conference schedule, they played like a team set to battle Nebraska for last.
Against the bottom third of the conference, they played like a solid 11th place team.
Against the top 2/3rds of the league, they play like a Big Ten champ.
See. Figured out.
Cockroaches gonna cockroach.
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We are now almost 70% done with the season:
- 1 team has played 15 league games 75% (PU)
- 7 teams have played 14 league games 70% (IL, UW, RU, IU, NU, UMD, UNL)
- 5 teams have played 13 league games 65% (MSU, IA, M, PSU, MN)
- 1 team has played 12 league games 60% (tOSU)
The updated projected final standings and BTT seeds are:
- 15-5/22-7 Ohio State
- 14-6/23-7 Wisconsin (wins tie over PU and IL based on H2H2H of 2-1, no home game against IL, won at PU)
- 14-6/25-6 Purdue (second in tie with UW and IL based on H2H2H of 2-2, lost at home to UW, won at IL)
- 14-6/22-9 Illinois (last in tie with UW and PU based on H2H2H of 1-2, no game at UW, lost at home to PU)
- 13-7/22-9 Michigan State
- 12-8/18-12 Rutgers
- 11-9/17-13 Michigan (wins tie with IA based on record against UW/PU/IL)
- 11-9/21-10 Iowa
- 10-10/19-11 Indiana
- 7-13/12-16 Penn State (wins tie with NU based on H2H, won in Evanston)
- 7-13/14-15 Northwestern
- 6-14/14-17 Maryland
- 5-15/14-15 Minnesota
- 1-19/7-24 Nebraska
Thus, the match-ups at the BTT in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:
- #11 Northwestern vs #14 Nebraska, 830 BTN
- #12 Maryland vs #13 Minnesota, 6 BTN
Thursday, March 10, 2022:
- #5 Michigan State vs UMD/MN, 230 BTN
- #6 Rutgers vs NU/UNL, 9 BTN
- #7 Michigan vs #10 Penn State, 630 BTN
- #8 Iowa vs #9 Indiana, noon BTN
Friday, March 11, 2022:
- #1 Ohio State vs IA/IU, noon BTN
- #2 Wisconsin vs M/PSU, 630 BTN
- #3 Purdue vs RU/NU/UNL, 9 BTN
- #4 Illinois vs MSU/UMD/MN, 230 BTN
Saturday, March 12, 2022:
- tOSU/IA/IU vs IL/MSU/UMD/MN, 1 CBS
- UW/M/PSU vs PU/RU/NU/UNL, 330 CBS
Sunday, March 13, 2022:
- tOSU/IA/IU/IL/MSU/UMD/MN vs UW/M/PSU/PU/RU/NU/UNL, 330 CBS
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With the above said, I REALLY don't think that Ohio State will actually finish that well. As noted in the post above, the Buckeyes have more remaining games than any other B1G team. The SoS of what the Buckeyes have left is surprisingly light for this league in part because the two postponed games that the Buckeyes need to make up were both home games. In part because of that the Buckeyes have six home games and only two road games remaining. Furthermore, one of the road games is a game that Ohio State should probably win at Maryland. Thus, we project the Buckeyes to go 7-1 over their final eight games. That would be great but . . .
There are three weeks and three weekends left in the season:
- Week of Mon, Feb 14 - Fri, Feb 18
- Weekend of Sat/Sun, Feb 19/20
- Week of Mon, Feb 21 - Fri, Feb 25
- Weekend of Sat/Sun, Feb 26/27
- Week of Mon, Feb 28 - Fri, Mar 4
- Weekend of Sat/Sun, Mar 5/6
Half the league (IL, UW, RU, IU, NU, UMD, UNL) has six games left and for them it is pretty straight forward, they have one game each week (usually Tue, Wed, or Thur) and one game each weekend (Sat or Sun).
One team (PU) has only five games left so they are same as above except that they get the week of Feb 21-25 off.
Five teams (MSU, IA, M, PSU, MN) have seven games left so they each have one of those weeks doubled up. All are in this situation due to an earlier missed game (MSU@M, IA@tOSU, MvMSU, PSUvMN, MN@PSU).
That leaves Ohio State. The Buckeyes need to squeeze eight games into what would normally only be six slots. They had yesterday off and they have today off then a game on Tuesday then three days off, then the storm:
- Sat, 2/19 vs IA
- Mon, 2/21 vs IU
- Thur, 2/24 @ IL
- Sun, 2/27 @ UMD
- Tue, 3/1 vs UNL
- Thur, 3/3 vs MSU
In 13 days the Buckeyes will play seven games. The last three of those are all projected wins but frankly, as an Ohio State fan I'll be thrilled if Ohio State goes 2-1 in those.
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Pretty darned close to a must win game for MSU at Penn State on Tuesday. Massey has them as an underdog in their next 5, before finishing against Maryland at home.
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Pretty darned close to a must win game for MSU at Penn State on Tuesday. Massey has them as an underdog in their next 5, before finishing against Maryland at home.
Losing to Penn State obviously wouldn't be idea but, I think that "must win" overstates things a bit. The Spartans are 9-4/18-6 and ranked. Even if they lost their next six they'd still be 9-10/18-12 and likely in the tournament. Beyond that, while I can see them being underdogs in the five after PSU, I can't see them actually losing all five. Illinois and Purdue are both very good but those games are at home. Iowa and Michigan are dangerous but certainly beatable and the last of those five is in Columbus on short rest but the Buckeyes will be even less rested than the Spartans.
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Losing to Penn State obviously wouldn't be idea but, I think that "must win" overstates things a bit. The Spartans are 9-4/18-6 and ranked. Even if they lost their next six they'd still be 9-10/18-12 and likely in the tournament. Beyond that, while I can see them being underdogs in the five after PSU, I can't see them actually losing all five. Illinois and Purdue are both very good but those games are at home. Iowa and Michigan are dangerous but certainly beatable and the last of those five is in Columbus on short rest but the Buckeyes will be even less rested than the Spartans.
It cuts to a sort of weird part of “must win.” The worst games are often by nature more “must win” because they count more against you.
like if a football team wants to make a bowl, the worst non-conference game is by nature the most must win because it should be harder to win any of the others.
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Huge road game for UW tonight. It is a must-win if they want to remain in the hunt for the league title.
IU is playing for a ton too.
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Pretty darned close to a must win game for MSU at Penn State on Tuesday. Massey has them as an underdog in their next 5, before finishing against Maryland at home.
Huge road game for UW tonight. It is a must-win if they want to remain in the hunt for the league title.
IU is playing for a ton too.
Grr.
Now everybody is overusing "must win".
I have UW losing in Bloomington tonight and finishing one game out of first behind only Ohio State but, as stated above, tOSU has a huge run of games on short rest coming up so they most likely will not actually end up 15-5.
Illinois has the fewest losses (3) but they have possibly the toughest remaining schedule with games:
- AT Rutgers
- AT Michigan State
- vs Ohio State
- AT Michigan
They only have three losses now but it wouldn't take any major upsets for them to end up with seven.
Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State each have four losses but they each have at least two games remaining that it wouldn't be surprising if they lost:
Purdue:
- AT Michigan State
- AT Wisconsin
Wisconsin:
- AT Indiana
- AT Rutgers
- vs Purdue
Michigan State:
- vs Illinois
- AT Iowa
- vs Purdue
- AT Michigan
- AT Ohio State
Ohio State:
- vs Indiana on short rest
- AT Illinois
- AT Maryland on short rest
- vs Michigan State on short rest
My point is simply that there is a lot of BB left to be played and I think it is a bit early to start talking about "must-win" games.
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Grr.
Now everybody is overusing "must win".
I have UW losing in Bloomington tonight and finishing one game out of first behind only Ohio State but, as stated above, tOSU has a huge run of games on short rest coming up so they most likely will not actually end up 15-5.
Hence, must win.
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In Lunardi's latest the B1G still has seven teams in but Michigan and Rutgers are now both on the bubble. Michigan is the second team out while Rutgers is the fifth team out. The teams in are:
- #2 Purdue
- #3 Illinois
- #4 Wisconsin
- #5 Michigan State, Ohio State
- #7 Iowa
- #9 Indiana
Based on past history, those seeds on average would result in:
- 4.97 teams in the R32
- 2.54 teams in the S16
- 1.08 teams in the E8
- 0.53 teams in the F4
- 0.23 teams in the NC
- 0.08 National Champions
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Going to try to post an updated NCAA and NIT Bracketology each week, simply 2/3 SOR, and 1/3 KenPom. Things should come into focus more as we go on. Still have some outliers.
For auto-bid purposes, I'm assuming whoever is in first gets the autobid, but that the highest ranked KenPom team wins the tournament
February 15 update
NCAA
EAST
- #1 Auburn vs. #16 Southern/Colgate
- #8 IOWA vs. #9 Wake Forest
- #5 Providence vs. #12 Iona
- #4 MICHIGAN STATE vs. #13 Dayton
- #3 Villanova vs. #14 Vermont
- #6 Alabama vs. #11 Davidson
- #7 Colorado State vs. #10 INDIANA
- #2 Duke vs. #15 Princeton
WEST
- #1 Arizona vs. #16 Gardner Webb/Nicholls State
- #8 Saint Mary's vs. #9 Loyola(Chi)
- #5 WISCONSIN vs. #12 Chattanooga
- #4 Houston vs. #13 New Mexico State
- #3 UCLA vs. #14 Wagner
- #6 Wyoming vs. #11 Miami
- #7 Arkansas vs. #10 Iowa State
- #2 Gonzaga vs. #15 UC Irvine
MIDWEST
- #1 Kansas vs. #16 Norfolk State
- #8 Marquette vs. #9 Notre Dame
- #5 Texas vs. #12 MICHIGAN/Belmont
- #4 ILLINOIS vs. #13 South Dakota State
- #3 Tennessee vs. #14 Oakland
- #6 USC vs. #11 Boise State
- #7 Connecticut vs. #10 TCU
- #2 PURDUE vs. #15 Montana State
SOUTH
- #1 Baylor vs. #16 South Alabama
- #8 North Carolina vs. #9 Seton Hall
- #5 OHIO STATE vs. #12 SMU/Oklahoma
- #4 LSU vs. #13 Toledo
- #3 Texas Tech vs. #14 Towson
- #6 Murray State vs. #11 North Texas
- #7 Xavier vs. #10 San Francisco
- #2 Kentucky vs. #15 Liberty
NIT
PROVO
- #1 BYU vs. #8 UNC Wilmington
- #4 Saint Louis vs. #5 Stanford
- #3 San Diego State vs. #6 Vanderbilt
- #2 VCU vs. #7 South Carolina
MANHATTAN
- #1 Kansas State vs. #8 Longwood
- #4 St. Bonaventure vs. #5 Texas A&M
- #3 Creighton vs. #6 MINNESOTA
- #2 Virginia Tech vs. #7 Richmond
MEMPHIS
- #1 Memphis vs. #8 New Orleans
- #4 UAB vs. #5 NORTHWESTERN
- #3 Mississippi State vs. #6 Cincinnati
- #2 Ohio vs. #7 Texas State
MORGANTOWN
- #1 West Virginia vs. #8 Yale
- #4 RUTGERS vs. #5 Virginia
- #3 Oregon vs. #6 Central Florida
- #2 Florida vs. #7 Long Beach State
Other Big Ten teams
- Penn State - #7 team out
- Maryland - #13 team out
- Nebraska - n/a
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Losing to Penn State obviously wouldn't be idea but, I think that "must win" overstates things a bit. The Spartans are 9-4/18-6 and ranked. Even if they lost their next six they'd still be 9-10/18-12 and likely in the tournament. Beyond that, while I can see them being underdogs in the five after PSU, I can't see them actually losing all five. Illinois and Purdue are both very good but those games are at home. Iowa and Michigan are dangerous but certainly beatable and the last of those five is in Columbus on short rest but the Buckeyes will be even less rested than the Spartans.
MSU has played one good game in the past 7ish weeks. They won at Wisconsin.
I have a hard time seeing how you think that wasn't a must win to have any prayer of a Big Ten title.
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At least they are facing it head on...
https://twitter.com/kylebaustin/status/1493762352285630464?t=IciHODTUOYB9Njhe15aKbA&s=19
https://twitter.com/mattcharboneau/status/1493763536723533824?t=f5x_LPlh2I0S2cQBT7kq5A&s=19
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MSU has played one good game in the past 7ish weeks. They won at Wisconsin.
I have a hard time seeing how you think that wasn't a must win to have any prayer of a Big Ten title.
Vis-a-vis B1G Title, ok agreed.
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Bucks with a pretty lousy first half. Lucky to only be down 2 in a must win game against Minnesota.
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Huh? Good for PSU, I guess
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Minnesota bad. They bad bad. Ohio State had a really bad 1st half. Minny just had 2 bad halves. Getting outscored 47-20 in a half by any team is beyond awful.
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I really don't know what to think about Wisconsin. Such an up and down team. At least we all agree that this game against IU is a must win.
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Bucks with a pretty lousy first half. Lucky to only be down 2 in a must win game against Minnesota.
I really don't know what to think about Wisconsin. Such an up and down team. At least we all agree that this game against IU is a must win.
LoL, NO!
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I really don't know what to think about Wisconsin. Such an up and down team. At least we all agree that this game against IU is a must win.
Think they got some kinda thing going.
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It's obvious. When you think they are good, they are bad, until their best player leaves, which makes them good. Then when they return that entire good team, they are bad. Then when all the good players who became bad leave, the bad players, who couldn't play over the formerly good, but then bad players, now have to ply, they are good
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I hesitate to ask this because I feel like this is an Izzo team, I've seen this movie before, and I know how it ends but . . . should we drop MSU a tier?
The difference between tier-1 and tier-2 is projected result in road games against tier-3 teams, for MSU those are:
- @MN, won 75-67 on 12/8
- @NU, won 73-67 on 1/2
- @UMD, won 65-63 on 2/1
- @PSU, lost 62-58 tonight
- @M, 3/1
They are 3-1 in these games but their negative upsets are:
- Lost at home to NU on 1/15
- Lost at home to UW on 2/8
- Lost at PSU on 2/15
Oddly, I feel like MSU is regressing before our eyes. I assume that Izzo will turn this around but this is very uncharacteristic for an Izzo team. Usually they are fairly pedestrian in December/January and rounding into form about now. Instead this team actually looked surprisingly good early in the year and right now they don't look good at all. In this calendar year the Spartans are 7-5 which isn't bad but the bulk of the wins are decidedly NOT impressive:
- @ NU
- vs UNL
- vs MN
- @ UW
- vs M
- @ UMD
- vs IU
Wisconsin on the road is a great win. Michigan and Indiana at home are good but nothing to write home about. The rest are games that any tournament team should win easily.
The losses aren't very good either:
The IL and RU losses aren't bad. The UW loss is just a trade off for winning there (those wash out). Losing at home to NU and losing to PSU, those are not good.
I don't think we should drop them because they are 3-1 in the relevant games but honestly if we were ranking them right now I don't think I'd include them in tier-1. They look more like RU/IU/IA than PU/IL/UW/tOSU.
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Just a partial update to the projections:
- 15-5: UW/tOSU projected to finish tied for 1st/2nd: UW would win this tie
- 14-6: PU/IL projected to finish tied for 3rd/4th: PU would win this tie
- 12-8: RU/MSU projected to finish tied for 5th/6th: RU would win this tie
- 11-9: M/IA projected to finish tied for 7th/8th: M would win this tie
- 9-11: 9th place IU
- 8-12: 10th place PSU
- 7-13: 11th place NU
- 6-14: 12th place UMD
- 5-15: 13th place MN
- 1-19: 14th place UNL
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Upthread we talked about Michigan and Rutgers getting onto the Bubble which was a good thing but I think that Indiana is approaching the bubble from the other direction which is a bad thing.
Indiana's big problem is that their OOC SOS was abysmal. Frankly, I think that is pathetic for a program with Indiana's pedigree. Here are the worst OOC SOS in the B1G:
- #276 Northwestern
- #269 Indiana
- #258 Rutgers
- #249 Iowa
- #209 Nebraska
- #207 Minnesota
I don't like it but I understand why Northwestern, Rutgers, Nebraska, and Minnesota schedule lightweight OOC slates. Indiana and Iowa shouldn't be doing that.
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Upthread we talked about Michigan and Rutgers getting onto the Bubble which was a good thing but I think that Indiana is approaching the bubble from the other direction which is a bad thing.
Indiana's big problem is that their OOC SOS was abysmal. Frankly, I think that is pathetic for a program with Indiana's pedigree. Here are the worst OOC SOS in the B1G:
- #276 Northwestern
- #269 Indiana
- #258 Rutgers
- #249 Iowa
- #209 Nebraska
- #207 Minnesota
I don't like it but I understand why Northwestern, Rutgers, Nebraska, and Minnesota schedule lightweight OOC slates. Indiana and Iowa shouldn't be doing that.
They have 2.5 games that had the possibility of being good, each scheduled as part of a larger event (Big Ten-ACC, Gavitt games, Crossroads challenge). None of those teams are super notable. They also set up their own Thanksgiving tournament for reasons unknown, which meant only getting Jackson State, Louisiana and Marshall.
That is some weird work. Looks like Iowa did the same with an MTE.
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I'd say MSU drops one tier. Everything else stays.
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I'm starting to feel like Illinois is gonna close out at 5-1 and make the conference title race a moot point.
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I'm starting to feel like Illinois is gonna close out at 5-1 and make the conference title race a moot point.
I think you are right. Possibly 6-0. They are really good.
Of course, the cockroach looms large tonight.
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Updated NET rankings for B1G teams:
- #10 Purdue (tier-1)
- #13 Illinois (tier-1)
- #17 Ohio State (tier-1)
- #19 Iowa (tier-2)
- #21 Wisconsin (tier-1)
- #27 Michigan State (tier-1)
- #36 Michigan (tier-2)
- #45 Indiana (tier-2)
- #66 Northwestern (tier-3)
- #81 Rutgers (tier-2)
- #86 Penn State (tier-3)
- #100 Maryland (tier-3)
- #103 Minnesota (tier-3)
- #175 Nebraska (tier-5)
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I'm starting to feel like Illinois is gonna close out at 5-1 and make the conference title race a moot point.
Obviously Illinois at Rutgers tonight is a must-win . . . For both teams.
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Obviously Illinois at Rutgers tonight is a must-win . . . For both teams.
Not even for both teams. For everyone chasing Illinois, it's a Rutgers must win for them. It's really a must win for everyone, including teams trying to steal that #3 seed from Illinois
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I'm starting to feel like Illinois is gonna close out at 5-1 and make the conference title race a moot point.
I wish I had the same confidence. These next 4 games are going to be a dogfight. If Illinois plays a complete game, sure, but they have let quite a few teams back into it lately.
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I wish I had the same confidence. These next 4 games are going to be a dogfight. If Illinois plays a complete game, sure, but they have let quite a few teams back into it lately.
Want to give us another shot without Cockburn and Curbelo this weekend? I think at home we might be better Illinois without their two best players
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Good deal, hope it works out for you and your little Ohio State fan.
On that note, while it is maybe a bit annoying for a Spartan to have a Buckeye, that isn't THAT bad. How do his Wolverine Grandparents feel?
Got a refund, bought nearly identical tickets to the Iowa game for less money.
O-H...? I guess
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Got a refund, bought nearly identical tickets to the Iowa game for less money.
O-H...? I guess
I-O of course!
Glad it worked out for you with the game/ticket switch. I hope you enjoy the game.
If you want to catch the MSU/IL game on TV while having lunch with your little guy before heading into the Schott for the Ohio State/Iowa game I *THINK* that the Varsity Club (278 W. Lane) would be good. It can be a somewhat rowdy college bar on a weekend night but at noon on a non-football Saturday I *THINK* it would be tame enough to take a kid. I haven't been in a while so maybe some of the more local or more recent tOSU alums on here will have better information for you.
I recommend it largely because it is a 1/2 mile walk from the BB arena so you should be able to park once and do both. Plus, if you park for the BB game at around noon you'll find it very easy to get into BB parking as opposed to trying to park for the BB game with everybody else at 1:30 or so.
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I-O of course! W-A!
Fixed.
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I agree with dropping MSU one tier.
Huge win for the Badgers last night. Going to be very interesting as we go down to the wire in the conference race. I wonder if the winner will get a 1 or 2 seed. Wisconsin doesn't necessarily pass the eye test for me, but the resume says they may get there. Buckeyes probably don't have enough quality wins. Illinois or Purdue are probably a 1 seed if they win the conference.
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Not even for both teams. For everyone chasing Illinois, it's a Rutgers must win for them. It's really a must win for everyone, including teams trying to steal that #3 seed from Illinois
With respect to control of destiny losses matter not wins so the conference title race right now is:
- 3-loss Illinois: Controls their own destiny.
- 4-loss PU, UW, and tOSU: Need at least one IL loss.
- 5-loss MSU and RU: Need at least two IL losses and one loss each by PU, UW, and tOSU.
- 6-loss IA and M: Borderline hopeless: Need at least three IL losses; two losses each by PU, UW, and tOSU; and a loss each by MSU and RU.
- 8-loss IU: Mathematically in it but practically eliminated.
- All other teams are mathematically eliminated because the UW/PU winner can do no worse than 12-8.
Illinois' remaining schedule sorted most likely loss to most likely win:
- @ M on 2/27
- @ MSU on 2/19
- @ RU tonight
- vs tOSU on 2/24
- vs IA on 3/6
- vs PSU on 3/3
You could argue any order for those first three. Michigan has the most talent, RU looks the best recently, MSU is Izzo and nearing March.
Purdue's remaining schedule sorted the same way:
- @ UW on 3/1
- @ MSU on 2/26
- vs RU on 2/20
- vs IU on 3/5
- @ NU tonight
Wisconsin's remaining schedule sorted the same way:
- @ RU on 2/26
- vs PU on 3/1
- vs M on 2/20
- @ MN on 2/23
- vs UNL on 3/6
Ohio State's remaining schedule sorted the same way:
- @ IL on 2/24
- vs MSU on 3/3
- vs M on 3/6
- @ UMD on 2/27
- vs IU on 2/21
- vs IA on 2/19
- vs UNL on 3/1
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I-O of course!
Glad it worked out for you with the game/ticket switch. I hope you enjoy the game.
If you want to catch the MSU/IL game on TV while having lunch with your little guy before heading into the Schott for the Ohio State/Iowa game I *THINK* that the Varsity Club (278 W. Lane) would be good. It can be a somewhat rowdy college bar on a weekend night but at noon on a non-football Saturday I *THINK* it would be tame enough to take a kid. I haven't been in a while so maybe some of the more local or more recent tOSU alums on here will have better information for you.
I recommend it largely because it is a 1/2 mile walk from the BB arena so you should be able to park once and do both. Plus, if you park for the BB game at around noon you'll find it very easy to get into BB parking as opposed to trying to park for the BB game with everybody else at 1:30 or so.
We are comboing with Legoland, which is where our hotel is. Not sure if we'll get there in time for lunch. My do a dog at the game, with a dinner near the hotel
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Tournament view, locks (as per usual, my definition of "lock" is literal. I define it as a team that could lose all remaining games and would still make the tournament):
- 22-4/11-4 Purdue: Even if they lost out they'd finish 22-10/11-9 and be in.
- 20-5/11-4 Wisconsin: Even if they lost out they'd finish 20-11/11-9 and be in.
- 18-6/11-3 Illinois: Even if they lost out they'd finish 18-13/11-9. They'd be a bubble team but they'd get in.
Should be in:
- 18-7/9-5 Michigan State: What is holding me back from calling them a lock is that they *COULD* finish sub .500 in the league. If they lost out they'd be 18-14/9-11 and that might not do it.
- 16-6/9-4 Ohio State: If they had played and won their two postponed games they'd be in roughly the same situation as Illinois but they didn't so they are here.
Work to do:
- 17-7/7-6 Iowa: The Hawkeyes' problem is a serious lack of quality wins. They are 0-5 in Q1 games. Finishing 0-fer in Q1 games probably will not keep them out as long as they avoid bad losses which they've done a good job of so far.
- 16-9/7-8 Indiana: Dropping below .500 in the league is a bad omen for the Hoosiers. Their OOC was weak so they are wholly dependent on league games for quality wins and they have two (home wins over tOSU and PU) but they are currently on a four-game losing streak.
- 15-9/9-5 Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights three-game winning streak involving wins over MSU, tOSU, and UW with the last of those coming on the road as put them on the bubble but that status is precarious because the Scarlet Knights have three REALLY bad losses holding them back. They need to keep winning but the schedule doesn't get any easier with IL, @PU, @M, vsUW, @IU coming up.
- 13-10/7-6 Michigan: When they are good, the Wolverines are REALLY good. Their two Q1 wins were a blowout of Purdue and a blowout of IU in Bloomington. Those are impressive results but they are also Michigan's only Q1 wins. They are on the bubble but they need to keep winning and there aren't any easy games left for the Wolverines.
Need a miraculous finish:
- 12-11/5-9 Northwestern: If the Wildcats won out to the B1GCG then lost that they'd finish 21-12/11-9 and that is pretty much their only chance at an at-large bid.
- 10-12/5-9 Penn State: If the Nittany Lions won out to the B1GCG then lost that they'd finish 19-13/11-9 and that is pretty much their only chance at an at-large bid.
- 12-11/3-11 Minnesota: I'm not sure that an at-large bid is even possible for the Gophers. Winning every game between now and the B1GCG then losing that would put them at either 21-12/9-11 or 22-12/9-11 and that might not do it.
- 11-14/3-11 Maryland: Same as MN, winning to the B1GCG and losing that puts them at either 20-15/9-11 or 21-15/9-11 and that would be borderline at best.
Need to win the B1GCG:
- 7-18/1-13 Nebraska: Nebraska suddenly starting to win and winning their last six regular season games then getting all the way to the B1GCG would be a huge story but it wouldn't get the Cornhuskers in the Tournament, they'd need to win the B1GCG.
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Purdue's remaining schedule sorted the same way:
- @ UW on 3/1
- @ MSU on 2/26
- vs RU on 2/20
- vs IU on 3/5
- @ NU tonight
I actually disagree with this. The NU game tonight is at least the 3rd hardest or arguably the 2nd. Might depend upon the upcoming results though. It's distinctly possible that MSU will be coming home with a 3 game losing streak when Purdue comes, so they might be desperate by that time. We'll see.
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Rutgers is on an official bender
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... Oh God, Rutgers could win the conference
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Rutgers is on an official bender
4 ranked wins in a row. Impressive.
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... Oh God, Rutgers could win the conference
Going to be a wild ride to the finish line. Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Ohio State each control their own destiny while Rutgers and Michigan State are each only one game back in the loss column.
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Rutgers is on an official bender
(https://i.imgur.com/g6NzAMm.png)
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Going to be a wild ride to the finish line. Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Ohio State each control their own destiny while Rutgers and Michigan State are each only one game back in the loss column.
I think Purdue controls their own destiny, while Illinois and Ohio State do not.
If Purdue wins out, that's an additional loss for Wisconsin, so it knocks them out of a 1st place tiebreaker. If Purdue/IL/OSU all win out (not sure if IL or OSU play again), Purdue would be 3-0 against those schools H2H2H and win the tiebreaker. If Purdue and either IL or OSU win out, Purdue is 2-0 against IL and 1-0 against OSU.
So in every scenario, Purdue winning out makes them the champ, while IL or OSU would require a Purdue loss to have a shot at a tiebreaker if they win out.
Not sure on if Wisconsin controls their destiny. Obviously them winning out would knock Purdue out of contention, but I don't know their records vs OSU/IL or if they have games remaining against OSU/IL.
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I think Purdue controls their own destiny, while Illinois and Ohio State do not.
If Purdue wins out, that's an additional loss for Wisconsin, so it knocks them out of a 1st place tiebreaker. If Purdue/IL/OSU all win out (not sure if IL or OSU play again), Purdue would be 3-0 against those schools H2H2H and win the tiebreaker. If Purdue and either IL or OSU win out, Purdue is 2-0 against IL and 1-0 against OSU.
So in every scenario, Purdue winning out makes them the champ, while IL or OSU would require a Purdue loss to have a shot at a tiebreaker if they win out.
Not sure on if Wisconsin controls their destiny. Obviously them winning out would knock Purdue out of contention, but I don't know their records vs OSU/IL or if they have games remaining against OSU/IL.
I meant it in regard to winning at least a share of the league title. Frankly I care a lot more about that than BTT seeding.
To answer your question though:
Purdue:
Winning out would knock out UW leaving the possibility of a tie with the IL/tOSU winner but PU swept IL and won their only game against tOSU so they DO control their own destiny to the #1 seed in the BTT.
Wisconsin:
Winning out would knock out PU leaving the possibility of a tie with the IL/tOSU winner. UW only played IL once (away) and lost so they would lose a tie with IL. They played tOSU twice and split so that would come down to record against the next best team which UW would win if it was PU but lose if it was IL or both.
Illinois:
Winning out would knock out tOSU leaving the possibility of a tie with the PU/UW winner. IL was swept by PU so they would lose that tie but won their only meeting with UW so they would win that tie.
Ohio State:
Winning out would knock out IL leaving the possibility of a tie with the PU/UW winner. tOSU split with UW and lost their only meeting with PU (away) so they would lose a tie with PU. A tOSU/UW tie would come down to record against the next best team which tOSU would lose if it was PU but win if it was IL or both IL and PU.
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Got it. So for a first place finish:
Purdue: Win out.
Wisconsin: Win out, plus an IL loss.
IL: Win out, plus a Purdue loss.
OSU: Win out, plus a Purdue loss AND a UW loss, or if tied with UW, that IL beats or ties Purdue in final standings.
Accurate?
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Got it. So for a first place finish:
Purdue: Win out.
Wisconsin: Win out, plus an IL loss.
IL: Win out, plus a Purdue loss.
OSU: Win out, plus a Purdue loss AND a UW loss, or if tied with UW, that IL beats or ties Purdue in final standings.
Accurate?
Almost. For Wisconsin to get the #1 seed in addition to winning out and Illinois losing, they need either:
- An Ohio State loss, or
- A final tiebreaker with tOSU that works for them (mostly this just means IL NOT next best).
I also think that Ohio State's is more concisely stated as win out and either*:
- A loss by the PU/UW winner, or
- A UW win over PU and a winning tiebreaker with UW (mostly this just means that IL IS next best or tied with PU for next best)
*I think this is better because saying "a PU loss AND a UW loss" sounds like two things which it is, but one of them is automatic because they play each other and obviously one of them HAS to lose that game.
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Anyone catch this last night?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Whai4FkDvR0
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Anyone catch this last night?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Whai4FkDvR0
That was nice. It does highlight a somewhat broad ranging question of if over the back is ever really a foul anymore. What is it ever? (like, it was called there, but the broadcaster seems pretty incredulous)
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College refs struggle MIGHTILY compared to NBA refs with understanding verticality with a number of calls, over the back among them. As their inability to understand that not all contact in the air is on the defense
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We are now about three-fourths of the way done with the season (most teams have played 15 games) and the tiers are:
- Wisconsin+1 (+3,-2), Ohio State+1, Purdue+1 (+2,-1), Illinois (+2,-2), Michigan State-2 (+1,-3)
- Rutgers+1 (+2,-1), Michigan+1 (+3,-2), Iowa-1 (+2,-3), Indiana-2 (+1,-3)
- Penn State+1 (+2,-1), Northwestern (+2,-2), Maryland-1 (+3,-4), Minnesota-1 (+1,-2)
- blank
- Nebraska+1
The #'s are for upsets which so far have been:
(https://i.imgur.com/oBOVEwA.png)
I didn't move MSU down because they are above .500 in the relevant games so doing so would create more upsets than it eliminated. Maybe they should be, I don't know.
I realize that this is a LOT of upsets but our system is still remarkably accurate because most of them balance out. Maryland, for example, has seven upsets in their 14 games which is only showing a 50% accuracy for our system but those upsets are three up and four down so our system is only off by one game, not bad.
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Our updated projected final standings and BTT seeds are:
- 15-5/24-6 Wisconsin (wins tie over tOSU based on record against PU and IL)
- 15-5/22-7 Ohio State
- 14-6/25-6 Purdue (wins tie over IL based on H2H, sweep)
- 14-6/22-9 Illinois
- 12-8/18-12 Rutgers (wins tie with M and MSU based on H2H2H of 2-1, no game in E. Lansing)
- 12-8/18-12 Michigan (second in tie with RU and MSU based on H2H2H of 2-2)
- 12-8/21-10 Michigan State (last in tie with RU and M based on H2H2H of 1-2, do not host RU)
- 10-10/20-11 Iowa
- 9-11/18-12 Indiana
- 8-12/13-15 Penn State
- 7-13/14-15 Northwestern
- 6-14/14-17 Maryland
- 5-15/14-15 Minnesota
- 1-19/7-24 Nebraska
Thus, the projected BTT match-ups in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:
- #11 Northwestern vs #14 Nebraska, 830 BTN
- #12 Maryland vs #13 Minnesota, 6 BTN
Thursday, March 10, 2022:
- #5 Rutgers vs UMD/MN, 230 BTN
- #6 Michigan vs NU/UNL, 9 BTN
- #7 Michigan State vs #10 Penn State, 630 BTN
- #8 Iowa vs #9 Indiana, noon BTN
Friday, March 11, 2022:
- #1 Wisconsin vs IA/IU, noon BTN
- #2 Ohio State vs MSU/PSU, 630 BTN
- #3 Purdue vs M/NU/UNL, 9 BTN
- #4 Illinois vs RU/UMD/MN, 230 BTN
Saturday, March 12, 2022:
- UW/IA/IU vs IL/RU/UMD/MN, 1 CBS
- tOSU/MSU/PSU vs PU/M/NU/UNL, 330 CBS
Sunday, March 13, 2022:
- UW/IA/IU/IL/RU/UMD/MN vs tOSU/MSU/PSU/PU/M/NU/UNL, 330 CBS
Since I know that @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) will want to know the potential for a tOSU/M BTT game would be in the late semi-final on Saturday but it would require all of the following to happen:
- Michigan to beat the NU/UNL winner on Thursday, and
- Michigan to upset Purdue on Friday, and
- Ohio State to beat the MSU/PSu winner on Friday.
If all of that happened the Buckeyes and Wolverines would play Saturday, March 12, 2022 at 3:30 pm EST on CBS.
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League title chase, what each teams needs:
As discussed above between @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) and I, Purdue can clinch a league title by winning out. Wisconsin, Illinois, and Ohio State could each clinch at least a share of the league title by winning out but each would need some help to be THE Champion as opposed to a co-Champion.
Rutgers 10-5:
- Win out, and
- IL/tOSU winner loses a game.
Michigan State 9-5:
- Win out, and
- UW loses at least one game.
Michigan 8-6:
- Win out, and
- PU loses twice, and
- UW loses one more game, and
- IL loses one more game, and
- tOSU loses one more game.
Iowa (7-7) is still mathematically in the race but they'd need a miraculous collapse by basically everyone in front of them.
Indiana (7-8) could theoretically tie Purdue at 12-8 but that would require Purdue losing out which would give UW their 12th win so it would be a three-way tie. Also, UW would have to lose all of their other games and IL could only win once and tOSU could only win three, and Rutgers could only win two and MSU could only win three and M could only win four and Iowa would have to lose a game.
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This weekend 12 of our 14 teams are in action. The only exceptions are Indiana (because they are at Ohio State on Monday) and Penn State (because they are at Maryland on Monday).
The Purdue/Rutgers game (530 Sunday on FS1) is the biggest game as far as the league title race is concerned. A Purdue win practically (though not mathematically) eliminates Rutgers. It also mathematically eliminates Indiana (which I know PU fans would like to do, hi @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) ) and would mathematically eliminate Iowa unless the Hawkeyes win in Columbus on Saturday.
The games this weekend:
Friday:
- Maryland at Nebraska, 9pm BTN
Saturday:
- Illinois at Michigan State, noon ESPN
- Iowa at Ohio State, 230 Fox (Hi @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) , enjoy the game with your little guy!)
- Northwestern at Minnesota, 4 BTN
Sunday:
- Michigan at Wisconsin, 1 CBS
- Rutgers at Purdue, 530 FS1
Then Monday we have:
- Indiana at Ohio State, 7 FS1
- Penn State at Maryland 7 ESPN
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Alright, all locked in. OSU-Iowa on Saturday, and Legoland on Sunday.
The funny thing was that by getting a refund on my original tickets and getting nearly identical tickets to OSU-Iowa, I'm going to see a better game for less money, because they put Indiana in the premier tier, but Iowa in their middle tier.
After dropping a home game last night to Michigan, it's going to be a desperate Hawkeye team in, dare I say, a must win situation?
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The funny thing was that by getting a refund on my original tickets and getting nearly identical tickets to OSU-Iowa, I'm going to see a better game for less money, because they put Indiana in the premier tier, but Iowa in their middle tier.
I would guess that Indiana is in the higher tier at least in part because Indiana probably travels a LOT better to Columbus than Iowa does. The Schott is only 3:33 from Assembly Hall per google but about eight hours from Carver-Hawkeye. I would imagine that a decent number of IU BB fans are pretty miffed about the swap since they went from a weekend game that would be easy to drive over for to a weeknight game that requires at least half a day off work to go see.
Alright, all locked in. OSU-Iowa on Saturday, and Legoland on Sunday.
Enjoy and I'd like to know your impressions of Legoland. I know nothing about it (didn't even know it existed in Columbus) and my oldest is not quite three so I'm not there yet but I will be soon enough so I'd appreciate if you let us know how it is because I might be wrapping a BB game trip in with that in a year or two.
After dropping a home game last night to Michigan, it's going to be a desperate Hawkeye team in, dare I say, a must win situation?
LoL.
I don't *THINK* Iowa needs this one (for making the tournament purposes) but they are running out of margin for error. They are now 7-7/17-8 and their two easiest remaining games are at Nebraska (2/25) and vs Northwestern (2/28). If they win those two then they can do no worse than 9-11/19-12 and I think that would be enough even with an early exit in Indianapolis. That said, it would obviously help their cause if they could pick up at least one win in their other four remaining games (@tOSU, vsMSU, @M, @IL).
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Enjoy and I'd like to know your impressions of Legoland. I know nothing about it (didn't even know it existed in Columbus) and my oldest is not quite three so I'm not there yet but I will be soon enough so I'd appreciate if you let us know how it is because I might be wrapping a BB game trip in with that in a year or two. LoL.
I can't speak to the one in Columbus, but Legoland in San Diego is outstanding for kids that age. I had a weekend without my ex and our 2nd (who was an infant at the time) when my oldest was only a little over 2 years old. In successive days I took him to the Miramar Air Show and Legoland.
Legoland was a blast. The rides are all targeted for that <5yo age range, and even the "roller coaster" wasn't too much for him at 2 yrs 3 mos.
That was also the weekend of Purdue Harbor (2009), so after the Miramar air show, since I didn't have BTN at the time, I got to listen to it on the radio while driving back home and while he took his nap, being careful not to go nuts and wake him up :72:
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Must win :) for UW against Michigan tomorrow. They look to be playing pretty well now. Will be a tough game for UW.
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I can't speak to the one in Columbus, but Legoland in San Diego is outstanding for kids that age. I had a weekend without my ex and our 2nd (who was an infant at the time) when my oldest was only a little over 2 years old. In successive days I took him to the Miramar Air Show and Legoland.
Legoland was a blast. The rides are all targeted for that <5yo age range, and even the "roller coaster" wasn't too much for him at 2 yrs 3 mos.
That was also the weekend of Purdue Harbor (2009), so after the Miramar air show, since I didn't have BTN at the time, I got to listen to it on the radio while driving back home and while he took his nap, being careful not to go nuts and wake him up :72:
Thanks for sharing this. I didn't realize it was set up for kids that young. I was thinking I needed to wait a few years.
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MSU missed 15 of their first 18 shots. Absolutely brutal offense to watch. Illinois has been nearly as bad. The difference being somehow when they throw passes the ricochet off guy's backs, someone else picks it up and throws up a prayer three that goes in to be the shot
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might be time for MSU to consider faking their own outbreak to duck Michigan back
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This Buckeye game has some of the most infuriating bounces I've seen in a game. Like a deflection will bounce off Kyle Young's head off the rim and to an open Hawkeye for three
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This Buckeye game has some of the most infuriating bounces I've seen in a game. Like a deflection will bounce off Kyle Young's head off the rim and to an open Hawkeye for three
Illinois hit a 24 second clock fadaway three that ricochet off Hauser's back
My main takeaway from Columbus, is I finally understand how Fran tricks recruits who aren't his children to play for him. The entire Iowa bench complains at the refs the entire game
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Ohio State is doing everything in their power to make sure that Iowa gets their first quality win of the year.
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Really loving this early afternoon loss. Plenty of time to cool down so I won't go to bed angry.
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Really loving this early afternoon loss. Plenty of time to cool down so I won't go to bed angry.
Are you for some reason surprised that the Buckeyes will:
- Finish outside of the top-4 in the B1G, and
- Make the tournament, and
- Underperform in the tournament?
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Are you for some reason surprised that the Buckeyes will:
- Finish outside of the top-4 in the B1G, and
- Make the tournament, and
- Underperform in the tournament?
Now, now. You can be angry without being surprised.
Looking back at OSU’s history, that is most of it.
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Juwan Howard making more friends
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Juwan Howard making more friends
Butthurt over a late timeout as UW bench warmers were struggling to run it out.
Punching/slapping a UW assistant was quite a choice. I wish Gard had not tried to explain what happened, but no excuse for Howard getting it to that point.
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Didn’t he have to be restrained from going after Turgeon last year? Might be time to show him the door.
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Women’s basketball is on. Maybe some folks should turn that on instead.
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Sometimes assholes don't grow up
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Didn’t he have to be restrained from going after Turgeon last year? Might be time to show him the door.
I would bet Beilein would go back. Class act and amazing coach. Took his shot at the NBA, can't blame him for that, but I believe he still lives in Ann Arbor
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Didn’t he have to be restrained from going after Turgeon last year? Might be time to show him the door.
Yep. Maybe said "I'll kill you" in the heat to the moment?
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There has to be a punishment. If people could just punch Joe Krabbenhoft without repercussions, they would have been doing it for years.
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Saw someone say this isnt the first time the Fab Five had problems with a tineout
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Saw someone say this isnt the first time the Fab Five had problems with a tineout
That's hilarious, though also super lame. Michigan was pressing the shit out of Wisconsin's walk ons. What did he expect to happen?
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That's hilarious, though also super lame. Michigan was pressing the shit out of Wisconsin's walk ons. What did he expect to happen?
I kinda think he was low-key pissy after UW's point guard put up and hit a 3 a few possessions earlier. He didn't say that, but it would make sense, if you're being immature about it, that it would lead to the pressing (and jumping passing lanes) in the first place.
Which is still childish as all hell.
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https://twitter.com/Kevin_Noon/status/1495500401562603528?t=1RTNvbS-54LqgmSm-RmT4g&s=19
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I kinda think he was low-key pissy after UW's point guard put up and hit a 3 a few possessions earlier. He didn't say that, but it would make sense, if you're being immature about it, that it would lead to the pressing (and jumping passing lanes) in the first place.
Which is still childish as all hell.
He did the same when he was getting blown out by MSU. I think with the NET factoring in MOV, it makes sense though. I don't blame him, but then you also can't be pissy about the other team playing 40 minutes if you still are
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Looks like Diabate, Williams, and one player (#33?) for Wisconsin got some punches in there too
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It’s always so predictable when this stuff happens.
Opposing fans say he should be fired, and fans of that school defend him even though they have asked for other coaches to be fired for far less at other schools.
I don’t know how you keep coach who is throwing blows at an opposing teams assistant coach under any circumstances.
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It’s always so predictable when this stuff happens.
Opposing fans say he should be fired, and fans of that school defend him even though they have asked for other coaches to be fired for far less at other schools.
I don’t know how you keep coach who is throwing blows at an opposing teams assistant coach under any circumstances.
Really terrible look, but it’s not even a blow. Should be suspended for multiple games. Firing for this is excessive.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BarstoolMSU/status/1495497193154920457?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
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Really terrible look, but it’s not even a blow. Should be suspended for multiple games. Firing for this is excessive.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BarstoolMSU/status/1495497193154920457?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Glad to see you here SM.
I always have a lot of respect for your opinion.
I might not agree with you here because this is supposed to be a leader of men and his behavior is supposed to exemplify what leader ship is, and he basically ignited a brawl by throwing his hand and hitting another coach in the face. and it’s not like this is his first rodeo losing his temper and going after a coach.
Either way- it was a bad look for Michigan.
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HB - I don’t disagree with your take about leadership. I just think calls for his job are a bit excessive. We have no idea what was said, not that flailing your arms around for something said is ok, but we have part of the story. It’s an embarrassing look for Michigan and there should be consequences, but ending the Howard era at Michigan over this event doesn’t seem like an appropriate response.
Granted, could be a biased take, but are we helping or harming kids that came to play for Juwan more or less by terminating him?
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Looks like Diabate, Williams, and one player (#33?) for Wisconsin got some punches in there too
Pretty sure 0 threw some hands. I don't think it was 33 (unless it was a big, oafish white guy).
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Michigan AD, not backing his man.
https://twitter.com/ByPatForde/status/1495524201087778823?s=20&t=RzNLUkZoh8VgYKHb06c6TQ
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Michigan AD, not backing his man.
https://twitter.com/ByPatForde/status/1495524201087778823?s=20&t=RzNLUkZoh8VgYKHb06c6TQ
That’s exactly what response should have been. Backing him would have sounded foolish. He’ll be backed quietly behind the scenes.
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man you guys in the big take this basketball shit seriously
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seems to be a regional thing
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HB - I don’t disagree with your take about leadership. I just think calls for his job are a bit excessive. We have no idea what was said, not that flailing your arms around for something said is ok, but we have part of the story. It’s an embarrassing look for Michigan and there should be consequences, but ending the Howard era at Michigan over this event doesn’t seem like an appropriate response.
Granted, could be a biased take, but are we helping or harming kids that came to play for Juwan more or less by terminating him?
Nah, he’s gotta go. This is the second time he’s had to be restrained in a handshake line and this time he hit somebody. This should be an easy decision for the AD.
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Pretty sure 0 threw some hands. I don't think it was 33 (unless it was a big, oafish white guy).
Correct
https://twitter.com/jaypo1961/status/1495551992084709376?t=HV5ZUKCntaNCtz8o3JUfgA&s=19
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Nah, he’s gotta go. This is the second time he’s had to be restrained in a handshake line and this time he hit somebody. This should be an easy decision for the AD.
He was part of the biggest pay for play scandal in NCAA history, wiped his ass on the floor as a player, and has now tried to fight two opposing coaches. At some point you either sign off on all of him, or you decide that isn't you. Michigan is about to decide which side of that line they are on. And he hasn't even won enough to swallow the other stuff. You are literally signing off on his juvenile behavior (again) for nothing. You have John Beilein sitting out there, and you excuse this POS? Thats certainly a bold move.
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He was part of the biggest pay for play scandal in NCAA history, wiped his ass on the floor as a player, and has now tried to fight two opposing coaches. At some point you either sign off on all of him, or you decide that isn't you. Michigan is about to decide which side of that line they are on. And he hasn't even won enough to swallow the other stuff. You are literally signing off on his juvenile behavior (again) for nothing. You have John Beilein sitting out there, and you excuse this POS? Thats certainly a bold move.
POS? Lol. Could you be any more dramatic?
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at the 12 second mark he grabs Gard by the shirt with a closed fist.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHb7vjieEis&t=12s
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why did Gard go back and try to stop Juan from just leaving?
Why didn't Gard try to get his team off the court?
lots of stuff went down, that all could have been avoided. both sides should look in a mirror
the correct response before all hell broke loose
"you coach your team, I'll coach mine"
as for the TO - Kirk F educated everyone in football you cant take them home
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why did Gard go back and try to stop Juan from just leaving?
Why didn't Gard try to get his team off the court?
lots of stuff went down, that all could have been avoided. both sides should look in a mirror
the correct response before all hell broke loose
"you coach your team, I'll coach mine"
as for the TO - Kirk F educated everyone in football you cant take them home
Just stop.
Gard did nothing wrong. He was responding to the Howard saying "I'll remember that" by trying to explain why he took the TO. Gard is a class act. Howard is not. The end.
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Just stop.
Gard did nothing wrong. He was responding to the Howard saying "I'll remember that" by trying to explain why he took the TO. Gard is a class act. Howard is not. The end.
take your red and white glasses off
maybe his fault was responding?
take the fans from the two schools out of it and ask people not connected and they can see plenty of blame on both sides.
i understand where you are coming from and deep down both sides should be embarrassed it happened
should be plenty of suspensions from the big ten
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One UW player will be suspended. Neith. He punched back when punched. Can't do that, even though it's a natural reaction to want to strike back.
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why did Gard go back and try to stop Juan from just leaving?
Why didn't Gard try to get his team off the court?
I mean, Gard did make a critical mistake.
He tried to treat Howard like a responsible adult and not someone who was snap into a tantrum like a high schooler. Def poor reading of the room.
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POS? Lol. Could you be any more dramatic?
He is. It's been proven over and over. Hopefully he's not near the court when they name it after Beilein in a few years
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(https://i.imgur.com/Hw7D8FX.png)
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https://twitter.com/Menace2Picks/status/1495498135107473418?s=20&t=FzOhpuH_5koc36ksmuiaFQ
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From The Athletic
Hamilton: Juwan Howard’s job at Michigan should be in jeopardy after embarrassing display
By Brian Hamilton 37m ago 66
Juwan Howard probably won’t be fired for what he did Sunday. Because he’s Juwan Howard, and because of what Juwan Howard’s name means to Michigan athletics in general, and because bureaucrats who run athletic departments and universities don’t like to make really hard decisions. Especially not in the cases of very popular head coaches whose programs win and bring millions of dollars into the mix. We usually get a lot of creative deflection and excuse-making in these scenarios. Maybe a cynical play to the emotions of the fan base. Semantics and lawyering, but not a severance package.
But Juwan Howard absolutely should be fired for what he did and said Sunday, if only because he doesn’t seem to grasp that the head men’s basketball coach at Michigan shouldn’t act like a child. Emotions run high in February, everywhere. Things are said and done, and competitive people get really mad about them, just about every game. But Michigan’s coach is the one who throws a tantrum after someone grabs his arm and says mean words. Who takes two steps back before reengaging an escalating situation by taking a swing at an opposing coach’s face, who instigates a brawl, who has to be restrained by a police officer and subsequently has the gall to brush off embarrassing himself, his program and his employer by claiming self-defense.
When Juwan Howard wants to grow up, then maybe Michigan considers letting him back in the building.
What part of the scene following the Wolverines’ loss at Wisconsin on Sunday wasn’t exactly the opposite of what a head coach should do in that situation? A late timeout he didn’t like, and Badgers coach Greg Gard touching him in the handshake line, spills into a cataclysmic failure of leadership. The worst possible example-setting for a team and an abject failure to represent your employer as your employer expects you will. Snicker if you want about any of these being categorized as core head-coach responsibilities. (We get a kick out of the leader-of-men stuff, too.) But these are the responsibilities of a head coach. Juwan Howard would’ve told you as much before tipoff Sunday. He might’ve waxed on about how fundamental they are, too, to his identity as a coach and to the program he’s leading.
And Michigan’s guy abdicated every one of those responsibilities in one moment.
That Howard demonstrated an almost inconceivable lack of self-awareness after the fact underscores the very large problem Michigan has. “I think that was very uncalled for, for (Gard) to touch me as we were communicating with one another,” Howard told reporters in Madison after the game. “At that point I felt it was time to protect myself.”
This is a delusion. This is arrogance. This is a guy who believes he won’t be held accountable for whatever he does, because whatever Juwan Howard does at Michigan can’t possibly be wrong. He’s saying this all while the Big Ten has a statement released within 90 minutes of the incident, announcing as expected that it will review the matter and will take “swift and appropriate disciplinary action.” The only person named in that statement is Juwan Howard. He’s saying this all while his boss, athletic director Warde Manuel, is absorbing the optics and putting together his own statement that pronounces there’s “no excuse” for what occurred, deeming it “totally unacceptable behavior.”
Everyone gets the message except Juwan Howard, who appears to be immune to understanding what’s expected of him in the job he has. If Howard hadn’t previously gotten big mad and rushed an opposing coach with the intent to kick ass in front of the whole wide world, maybe there’s a way to reason this mess into a one-off product of the heat of competition. But it’s been less than a year since Howard charged after then-Maryland coach Mark Turgeon, getting himself kicked out of a Big Ten tournament game in the process. Less than a year. And this is worse, much worse.
To be clear and fair: Gard wasn’t exactly a picture of quietude when the two came together, and Howard made clear he was in no mood. And Wisconsin assistant Joe Krabbenhoft, the receiver of the blow to the face, absolutely should not interject himself into the situation.
Howard doesn’t want to hear what either of them has to say? Sure. Fine. Cuss out Gard and every Wisconsin staff member he sees and move along.
Instead, we end up with Michigan’s coach bear-hugged by a uniformed police officer while his players throw punches a few feet away.
He had to defend himself?
Come on, man. Have you seen Greg Gard?
No, Sunday should be the last time Juwan Howard coaches a Michigan basketball game, by any sober interpretation of the expectations he’s paid handsomely to meet.
A program and a university, awash in embarrassment due to the actions of the one Michigan guy in the building who is, arguably, most responsible for preventing such a scene from happening in the first place. A group of players — his own and Wisconsin’s — put in harm’s way and facing their own suspensions because Michigan’s head coach can’t control himself. A nearly 50-year-old multimillionaire pretty much literally dragged kicking and screaming away from all hell breaking loose at the Kohl Center because he opened the gate.
It won’t be Howard’s last game as coach, of course. The school statement issued Sunday afternoon makes note of “instigating factors,” and while Michigan hardly absolved Howard of what he did, those six syllables don’t appear in the official dispatch from Ann Arbor if the higher-ups involved aren’t looking for any sliver of daylight to shove the head men’s basketball coach through.
If Howard is to remain Michigan’s coach? Well, then at minimum there’s no justification for him appearing on the sideline for the remainder of the 2021-22 season. Leave the fine print of that arrangement to the lawyers, but the message must be as clear as it is apparently overdue: Howard won’t have the privilege of coaching Michigan basketball until he fully understands what it means to be the head coach of Michigan basketball.
That starts with acting like an adult. On Sunday, Juwan Howard didn’t look like he knows how.
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I don't think he should get fired for this. If it happens again, then yes.
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agreed, but his job should be in jeopardy
and if he doesn't react remorseful and understand the issue, then he might as well pack
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I'm not in favor of sacking Howard, but his seat should be thermonuclear hot. Coaches have been cashiered for a lot less than what he did yesterday.
But a multiple game suspension? Yes.
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Maybe he thought he was a hockey player for just a minute there? I mean, isn't hockey a big deal up there? He probably just forgot.
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Instead of punching Gard for taking a timeout, he should have punched Chris Webber.
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He had to defend himself?
Come on, man. Have you seen Greg Gard?
This, this is top notch.
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Zach Heilprin on Twitter: "Can’t imagine why Gard thought he might be able to talk with Howard after the game. 🤔 Their previous interactions: https://t.co/GNdQAfogRH" / Twitter (https://twitter.com/ZachHeilprin/status/1495598900002107393?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1495598900002107393|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2F247sports.com%2Fcollege%2Fmaryland%2Fboard%2F67%2FContents%2Fjuwan-howard-183179174%2F%3Fpage%3D2)
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Zach Heilprin on Twitter: "Can’t imagine why Gard thought he might be able to talk with Howard after the game. 🤔 Their previous interactions: https://t.co/GNdQAfogRH" / Twitter (https://twitter.com/ZachHeilprin/status/1495598900002107393?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1495598900002107393|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2F247sports.com%2Fcollege%2Fmaryland%2Fboard%2F67%2FContents%2Fjuwan-howard-183179174%2F%3Fpage%3D2)
yep this is going to change their relationship
I guess no Christmas card either
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Howard had to “defend” himself again, eh? Just like with Turgeon. Lol. Who knew so many people liked to start fights with guys nearly a foot taller than they are.
Howard is a clown.
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(https://i.imgur.com/vt8tD3W.png)
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Wow, interesting situation for the Michigan AD.
I don't know that this will result in Howard's termination but it certainly is severe enough that termination is on the table.
Frankly if I were Michigan's AD I might see this as a great opportunity to do something I wouldn't mind doing anyway.
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Composite Computer Rankings (last week in parenthesis) - 30 computers
- Gonzaga (1)
- Arizona (2)
- Kansas (6)
- Kentucky (4)
- Baylor (5)
- Auburn (3)
- PURDUE (7)
- Duke (8)
- Villanova (9)
- UCLA (13)
- Texas Tech (12)
- Houston (10)
- Tennessee (11)
- ILLINOIS (14)
- Connecticut (20)
- Arkansas (22)
- Texas (15)
- WISCONSIN (21)
- Alabama (19)
- OHIO STATE (18)
- LSU (16)
- Saint Mary's (-)
- IOWA (25)
- USC (-)
- MICHIGAN STATE (17)
- 31. Michigan (39)
- 40. Indiana (41)
- 64. Rutgers (73)
- 77. Penn State (96)
- 82. Northwestern (71)
- 87. Maryland (92)
- 97. Minnesota (93)
- 188. Nebraska (182)
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Frankly if I were Michigan's AD I might see this as a great opportunity to do something I wouldn't mind doing anyway.
Particularly if Beilein wants to come back
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Pretty good level headed take from CBS college hoops podcast
https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/eye-on-college-basketball/
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Particularly if Beilein wants to come back
That is exactly what I was referring to. Frankly as an Ohio State fan, I'd prefer that they keep Howard.
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That is exactly what I was referring to. Frankly as an Ohio State fan, I'd prefer that they keep Howard.
Same
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Isn't B-Line getting a little long in the tooth?
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Isn't B-Line getting a little long in the tooth?
Sure, but you grab him, an up-and-coming assistant with a wink wink promise, and away you go.
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Sure, but you grab him, an up-and-coming assistant with a wink wink promise, and away you go.
Like the one he had when he left? Michigan had basically become Iowa, and then Yaklich came in, fixed the defense, and Beilein was always an offensive genius. The result was a Big Ten title and national title appearance. The next year I honestly think they were better, but they ran into an elite MSU team three times, and got matched up with an underseeded Texas Tech in the Sweet 16.
You bring that duo back, with Yaklich as coach in waiting, that scares the hell out of me more than a guy who is just a recruiter, and needs a fired A10 coach to tell him what to do in game, while repeatedly embarrassing himself and his employer. I've reached a point where anyone who decides to play for this clown has a large enough character flaw that they do not scare me one bit. He has 4 McDonald's All-Americans on his current team that is right on the NCAA bubble. He has so much more NBA talent than every other big 10 school, the two not even be solidly in the tournament, let alone in the Big Ten title discussion, is embarrassing.
He ab serves to be fired, as anyone who punches someone in their job does, but I hope he isn't, because he is simultaneously not a threat, while being a complete embarrassment to the university
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Instead of punching Gard for taking a timeout, he should have punched Chris Webber.
that's gold.
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pretty sure they have to fire Howard. not a good look when your head coach is punching people on the court during a game.
be a different story if he was like out to dinner with his wife and someone got out of line and he socked them and some jerk off with a camera phone recorded it and uploaded it to twitter or facebook.
i don't see how any coach could survive this.
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pretty sure they have to fire Howard. not a good look when your head coach is punching people on the court during a game.
be a different story if he was like out to dinner with his wife and someone got out of line and he socked them and some jerk off with a camera phone recorded it and uploaded it to twitter or facebook.
i don't see how any coach could survive this.
And it's not like this puts Michigan in a bad spot. You literally have the best coach in school history sitting out there, still living in Ann Arbor, who you could actually hire. As an MSU fan, I would love for UM to keep a trash coach who keeps embarrassing the school on the payroll. You bring back Beilein, with Yaklich in coach in waiting? No thanks.
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He is. It's been proven over and over. Hopefully he's not near the court when they name it after Beilein in a few years
Save the POS talk for people like Larry Nasser. Loose cannon? Sure. Childlike response? Sure. Should be setting a better example? Absolutely. Let’s keep the POS title humans that are truly just that, not guys that do a piss poor job of control emotions when they’re passionate about a sport. No excuse for his actions, but calling him a POS sounds like bitter apples.
secondly, there’s always been conflicting stories about the incident of the Fab Five and the butt rub incident. Some say it was Jalen, not Howard, which makes more sense. Also, most accounts have the State crowd using some great racial language. So when you’re using that example to solidify your POS characterization, maybe consider that in the response from a couple 20 year old kids. Obviously doesn’t excuse yesterday.
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Mario you punch a much smaller man who was no threat that could lead to a chain reaction.I really don't know squat about Howard but if that was Rodman,Mahorn,Moses Malone or some of the NBA thumpers he somehow would have found restraint or his dick 3 rows up
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Ok. I admit it’s me. Not “you”.
I am a 60 year old dude who can’t believe:
The Head Basketball Coach at Prestigious University of Michigan struck an opposing coach in the face. And in the press conference following, not only did he not apologize, when I asked about his players getting into a fight his comment was “I’m glad they have my back”.
And there is even a question about him being fired? The world is a different place than where I grew up with and I can’t deny I don’t really care for that.
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if Woody Hayes (a far more established, entrenched, winning, and legendary coach) can get fired for something similar- but probably a little bit worse since it was a player he hit- back in a day when men actually had balls and people were rougher and tougher and not soft sensitive little pussies that are offended by everything like they are now- then I don't see what chance Howard has of keeping his job in this "i'm a woke pussy everything offends me" culture we live in right now.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=630&v=OqUFRvctx34&feature=emb_logo
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5 game suspension apparently. Eh, whatever. I would have canned him before he got on the plane. Getting tossed for going after Turgeon last year would have been his one freebie with me. For different reasons I’m not shocked though. As someone else said, his lack of contrition in the press conference when he was out of the heat of the moment was troubling.
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Save the POS talk for people like Larry Nasser. Loose cannon? Sure. Childlike response? Sure. Should be setting a better example? Absolutely. Let’s keep the POS title humans that are truly just that, not guys that do a piss poor job of control emotions when they’re passionate about a sport. No excuse for his actions, but calling him a POS sounds like bitter apples.
secondly, there’s always been conflicting stories about the incident of the Fab Five and the butt rub incident. Some say it was Jalen, not Howard, which makes more sense. Also, most accounts have the State crowd using some great racial language. So when you’re using that example to solidify your POS characterization, maybe consider that in the response from a couple 20 year old kids. Obviously doesn’t excuse yesterday.
I have MUCH worse words for Larry Nassar and his enablers.
But a head basketball coach who had a questionable reputation as a player, and has now tried to fight multiple coaches? That's a POS. And like I said, all respect to John Beilein, who I think is the best Xs and Os coach in my lifetime of basketball. Even Tommy Amaker was a class act, and a good recruiter, guys just never got better under him. I hope Michigan keeps Howard, he is a great recruiter, and a shit coach, and an embarrassment to the university. I wonder how many UM professors have told a fellow professor he would "f****** kill him" and punched another one in the face and kept his job? They just fired a President for less. If he had followed Amaker, I'd see an argument for allowing middling success after no success to keep him. But he has done so much less than his predecessor on the court, while being an absolute clown. Hell, just on the court he has received two technicals for interfering with the on court play. He's not a professional
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if Woody Hayes (a far more established, entrenched, winning, and legendary coach) can get fired for something similar- but probably a little bit worse since it was a player he hit- back in a day when men actually had balls and people were rougher and tougher and not soft sensitive little pussies that are offended by everything like they are now- then I don't see what chance Howard has of keeping his job in this "i'm a woke pussy everything offends me" culture we live in right now.
I was thinking of this comparison as well.
Woody Hayes coached Ohio State football for 28 years, won multiple NC's, a slew of league titles, etc. He punched a kid in the Gator Bowl and was fired the next day.
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Plus it was a younger, much bigger guy who had pads on.
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Lawyers the next time Michigan wants to fire someone for cause
(https://www.simbasible.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1-4.gif)
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(https://i.imgur.com/vjJsF0L.png)
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a 5 game suspension and a $40,000 fine (he makes $2 million a year at Michigan and made $150+ million in NBA earnings) is a joke if you ask me.
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(https://i.imgur.com/vjJsF0L.png)
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
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(https://i.imgur.com/vjJsF0L.png)
I like that this is basically what everyone suspected. Krabby dodging a fine is nice for him.
A little sad to lose Neath for a game. He just looked maybe his best of the season. Granted, he's not make or break.
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Allen Griffin was suspended 2 games by the big ten for stupidly stepping on a Purdue player a couple years ago.
Kofi suspended 3 games for selling gear...which is now legal. Granted that was an NCAA punishment.
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(https://i.imgur.com/vjJsF0L.png)
Advantage Michigan not having that clown on the bench. Martelli is the brains of the in game operation
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Lawyers the next time Michigan wants to fire someone for cause
(https://www.simbasible.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/1-4.gif)
Every Michigan professor at a conference should exercise their right to one free punch of a colleague they disagree with.
And I guess a student of your choice can borrow Warde's car.
He is the most emasculated AD in Big Ten history.
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I was thinking of this comparison as well.
Woody Hayes coached Ohio State football for 28 years, won multiple NC's, a slew of league titles, etc. He punched a kid in the Gator Bowl and was fired the next day.
Not to mention Bobby Knight. Accosted a student who he felt disrespected him and got shitcanned.
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Every Michigan professor at a conference should exercise their right to one free punch of a colleague they disagree with.
And I guess a student of your choice can borrow Warde's car.
He is the most emasculated AD in Big Ten history.
for real.
Harbaugh was out until the Vikings realized after spending 8 hours with him in person- yeah this guy is a f**king major weirdo, no thanks.
Howard tries to knock another coach out on national tv and he gives him a 5 game suspension and fines him $40k.
This dude has no balls.
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And John Beilein, who is actually the best coach I have ever seen in Big Ten play, is sitting out there, still living in Ann Arbor, and you are trying to retain the shitty Hurley brother?
This is a perfect chance to get out of a desperation mistake, and if they don't take it, Jesus. For MSU, I would love for them to keep him. I want no part of more Beilein/Yaklich
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Agree with ELA. Beilein is one of my all time favorite coaches. And Michigan could bring him back. I hope he lands somewhere next year if not at UM.
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I have MUCH worse words for Larry Nassar and his enablers.
But a head basketball coach who had a questionable reputation as a player, and has now tried to fight multiple coaches? That's a POS. And like I said, all respect to John Beilein, who I think is the best Xs and Os coach in my lifetime of basketball. Even Tommy Amaker was a class act, and a good recruiter, guys just never got better under him. I hope Michigan keeps Howard, he is a great recruiter, and a shit coach, and an embarrassment to the university. I wonder how many UM professors have told a fellow professor he would "f****** kill him" and punched another one in the face and kept his job? They just fired a President for less. If he had followed Amaker, I'd see an argument for allowing middling success after no success to keep him. But he has done so much less than his predecessor on the court, while being an absolute clown. Hell, just on the court he has received two technicals for interfering with the on court play. He's not a professional
Beilein is my all-time favorite coach. Reminds me a lot of my Hs football coach, Chuck Kyle, who I believe is one of the greats in HS football history. We have no argument or disagreement on Beilein being what you look for in a coach. Tough act to follow. Howard definitely has done some stupid things and this could have been a fireable offense, but I guess I don’t get the hate for him.
additionally, claiming he hasn’t accomplished anything on the court is odd. He’s in year 3, a clear rebuild year, following his 2nd season going 23-5, 14-3 in the big ten with a big 10 title, getting knocked out in the elite 8. I’d say the Michigan brass disagree he’s an embarrassment, otherwise this was an easy exit plan.
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When you recruit one and dones, there is no such thing as a rebuilding year. Otherwise you could claim every year is a rebuilding year at Duke and Kentucky. I saw a post that noted he had 4 McDonald's All Americans on the roster, and the rest of the Big Ten has four COMBINED. He has far more NBA talent than anyone else in the conference, and he's on the bubble with it. Like other posters have said. If Michigan wants to keep him, good for us. With the best talent in the conference, he's in like 8th place. He might have more McDonald's All Americans on this roster this year than Beilein had in his whole career
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Update to the projections now at about 75-80% done with the season. Updated projected final standings/BTT seeds:
- 15-5/23-8 Illinois (wins tie with UW based on H2H, no game in Madison)
- 15-5/24-6 Wisconsin
- 14-6/25-6 Purdue (wins tie with tOSU based on H2H, no game in Columbus)
- 14-6/21-8 Ohio State
- 12-8/18-12 Rutgers (wins tie with M based on record against IL/UW, won in Madison)
- 12-8/18-12 Michigan
- 11-9/21-10 Iowa (wins tie with MSU based on H2H, no game in E. Lansing)
- 11-9/20-11 Michigan State
- 9-11/18-12 Indiana
- 8-12/13-15 Penn State
- 7-13/14-15 Northwestern
- 6-14/14-17 Maryland
- 5-15/14-15 Minnesota
- 1-19/7-24 Nebraska
Thus the matchups at the BTT in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:
- #11 Northwestern vs #14 Nebraska, 830 BTN
- #12 Maryland vs #13 Minnesota, 6 BTN
Thursday, March 10, 2022:
- #5 Rutgers vs UMD/MN, 230 BTN
- #6 Michigan vs NU/UNL, 9 BTN
- #7 Iowa vs #10 Penn State, 630 BTN
- #8 Michigan State vs #9 Indiana, noon BTN
Friday, March 11, 2022:
- #1 Illinois vs MSU/IU, noon BTN
- #2 Wisconsin vs IA/PSU, 630 BTN
- #3 Purdue vs M/NU/UNL, 9 BTN
- #4 Ohio State vs RU/UMD/MN, 230 BTN
Saturday, March 12, 2022:
- IL/MSU/IU vs tOSU/RU/UMD/MN, 1 CBS
- UW/IA/PSU vs PU/M/NU/UNL, 330 CBS
Sunday, March 13, 2022:
- IL/MSU/IU/tOSU/RU/UMD/MN vs UW/IA/PSU/PU/M/NU/UNL, 330 CBS
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Who is a one and done at Michigan? Houstan, maybe. As we have seen at Duke and Kentucky, high ceiling talent doesnt always translate to being ready year 1 in college and that’s not always the coaches fault. Unless, someone is willing to make the claim that coach K did an average job coaching some years. That talent group is a double edged sword. And don’t get me wrong, sometimes it is the coaches fault and I hear your point. Just not sure if comfortable with an answer yet.
Apparently we will have time to get answers. Is Howard a mediocre coach? Is he an embarrassment that’s just going to pop off again and lead to a termination? Time apparently will tell.
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In all the kerfuffle of the last week, wanted to make a small note about something UW did.
Last week, at IU, the Badgers got to 20 wins. Maybe that number is only significant because it's round, but at some point in my fandom, I decided that number was a floor of sorts. If you win 20, you're probably pretty alright. You're almost assuredly dancing, which is the dividing line in this sport.
UW hit that mark for the 14th time in 17 seasons since I got to school. They also did it the three seasons prior. Sometimes it comes early, like this year. Sometimes it takes longer. Last year's team didn't do it, but it probably would have with a full schedule. In any case, consistent success is not a given, especially in a place like Wisconsin, so that's something to be thankful for.
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Great post.
I was a fan when Steve Yoder was around. If you told me then that UW would rip off the kind of success it has, I'd have asked for some of your smoke.
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It goes to show you how little I paid attention to college basketball last winter that I missed the fracas between Howard and Marc Turgeron.
I was wrong yesterday. Howard should have been fired before the bus left the Kohl Center.
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Last week, at IU, the Badgers got to 20 wins. Maybe that number is only significant because it's round, but at some point in my fandom, I decided that number was a floor of sorts. If you win 20, you're probably pretty alright. You're almost assuredly dancing, which is the dividing line in this sport.
Yeah, in the B1G, 20 wins almost assures you're in the field of 68.
I also see 25 as a sort of dividing line between a good season and a pretty great one... And Purdue's done that 8 times in Matt Painter's tenure, exactly half of his 16 (complete) seasons with the team. Unless something horrifically bad happens, they'll do it again this year as Purdue is now 24-4.
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(https://i.imgur.com/lpbzd2s.png)
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Who is a one and done at Michigan? Houstan, maybe.
They have two recruits you'd consider ranked in the one-and-done range. Diabate and Houstan. Obviously neither has really played to that level. Were he shaped differently or were the NBA not in its current era re: centers, Hunter Dickinson would've been one last year.
(This is not to say it is or isn't a rebuilding year, just to flesh out what talent they have)
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In all the kerfuffle of the last week, wanted to make a small note about something UW did.
Last week, at IU, the Badgers got to 20 wins. Maybe that number is only significant because it's round, but at some point in my fandom, I decided that number was a floor of sorts. If you win 20, you're probably pretty alright. You're almost assuredly dancing, which is the dividing line in this sport.
UW hit that mark for the 14th time in 17 seasons since I got to school. They also did it the three seasons prior. Sometimes it comes early, like this year. Sometimes it takes longer. Last year's team didn't do it, but it probably would have with a full schedule. In any case, consistent success is not a given, especially in a place like Wisconsin, so that's something to be thankful for.
Yeah, in the B1G, 20 wins almost assures you're in the field of 68.
I also see 25 as a sort of dividing line between a good season and a pretty great one... And Purdue's done that 8 times in Matt Painter's tenure, exactly half of his 16 (complete) seasons with the team. Unless something horrifically bad happens, they'll do it again this year as Purdue is now 24-4.
I agree with both of these with a minor clarification on 25 being pretty great:
WRT 20 being "pretty alright" I agree and don't really care how you get there. Even if you "only" go say 17-14 in the regular season but then you go 3-1 in the league tournament to finish 20-15 you are probably going to the big dance so you are "pretty alright". Conversely, if you go 20-11 then lose your league tournament opener to finish 20-12 that was a better regular season but a worse league tournament so either way I agree, "pretty alright".
WRT to 25 being "pretty great" I agree, but only if the 25 wins are accomplished IN the regular season or if you have substantial post-season success. Ie, a 25-6 regular season is pretty great but a 21-10 regular season with two wins each in the league and national tournaments just means that you were pretty good then went 2-1 and didn't win the league tournament then made the S16 but didn't win any second-weekend games. Eh, that is pretty good but not great IMHO.
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Going to try to post an updated NCAA and NIT Bracketology each week, simply 2/3 SOR, and 1/3 KenPom. Things should come into focus more as we go on. Still have some outliers.
For auto-bid purposes, I'm assuming whoever is in first gets the autobid, but that the highest ranked KenPom team wins the tournament
February 21 update
NCAA
MIDWEST
- #1 Kansas vs. #16 Gardner-Webb/Southern
- #8 Marquette vs. #9 Notre Dame
- #5 Alabama vs. #12 Dayton
- #4 ILLINOIS vs. #13 South Dakota State
- #3 Villanova vs. #14 Wagner
- #6 Murray State vs. #11 Loyola(Chi)
- #7 MICHIGAN STATE vs. #10 Boise State
- #2 Texas Tech vs. #15 Montana State
WEST
- #1 Arizona vs. #16 Colgate/Nicholls
- #8 Colorado State vs. #9 North Texas
- #5 Providence vs. #12 Iona
- #4 Texas vs. #13 New Mexico State
- #3 UCLA vs. #14 Princeton
- #6 LSU vs. #11 TCU
- #7 IOWA vs. #10 Xavier
- #2 Gonzaga vs. #15 UC Irvine
SOUTH
- #1 Auburn vs. #16 Norfolk State
- #8 North Carolina vs. #9 Davidson
- #5 OHIO STATE vs. #12 Miami/Creighton
- #4 Houston vs. #13 Toledo
- #3 Duke vs. #14 Furman
- #6 Arkansas vs. #11 San Diego State
- #7 Saint Mary's vs. #10 MICHIGAN
- #2 Baylor vs. #15 South Alabama
EAST
- #1 Kentucky vs. #16 Oakland
- #8 Wake Forest vs. #9 Seton Hall
- #5 USC vs. #12 SMU/INDIANA
- #4 WISCONSIN vs. #13 Vermont
- #3 Tennessee vs. #14 Towson
- #6 Connecticut vs. #11 San Francisco
- #7 Iowa State vs. #10 Wyoming
- #2 PURDUE vs. #15 Liberty
NIT
GAINESVILLE
- #1 Florida vs. #8 Alcorn State
- #4 Ohio vs. #5 Chattanooga
- #3 West Virginia vs. #6 Texas A&M
- #2 BYU vs. #7 Long Beach State
RICHMOND
- #1 VCU vs. #8 New Orleans
- #4 St. John's vs. #5 Colorado
- #3 Mississippi State vs. #6 Central Florida
- #2 Kansas State vs. #7 PENN STATE
NASHVILLE
- #1 Belmont vs. #8 Cleveland State
- #4 St. Bonaventure vs. #5 Oregon
- #3 Virginia Tech vs. #6 Vanderbilt
- #2 Oklahoma vs. #7 Texas State
MEMPHIS
- #1 Memphis vs. #8 Jacksonville State
- #4 South Carolina vs. #5 Saint Louis
- #3 Virginia vs. #6 UAB
- #2 RUTGERS vs. #7 Longwood
Big Ten teams left out
- Minnesota - #1 team out
- Northwestern - #3 team out
- Maryland - #8 team out
- Nebraska - n/a
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League title race update:
- 13-4 Purdue: Controls their own destiny to the league title. Winning out would knock out UW and they'd win a tie with IL based on sweeping them.
- 12-4 Wisconsin: Controls their own destiny to a share of the league title and winning out would knock out PU but they'd lose a tie with IL so they need an IL loss to be The Champion as opposed to a Champion.
- 12-4 Illinois: Controls their own destiny to a share of the league title but they'd lose a tie with PU so they need a PU loss to be The Champion as opposed to a Champion.
- 10-5 Ohio State: Needs a loss by the PU/UW winner to get a share of the title. Getting to The Champion rather than a Champion is significantly trickier. The Buckeyes would win a 15-5 tie with IL (because they'd have to beat IL to get there) but they'd lose a tie with PU (only played once, in W. Lafayette) and a tie with UW would come down to record against the next best team which works for tOSU if that team is IL but not if it is PU.
- 10-6 Rutgers: Being The Champion is mathematically possible but practically impossible. Being a Champion is unlikely but possible. They'd need two losses by the PU/UW winner, a loss by the PU/UW loser, two losses by IL, and one loss by tOSU (but note that one of those last three will be automatic when tOSU/IL play).
- 9-6 Michigan State: Same as Rutgers except that they play PU and tOSU so they need a little less outside help.
- 8-7 Iowa: As a practical matter they are probably hopeless. They'd need PU to lose out but that would give UW a 13th win so they'd need UW to lose the rest of their games and two more losses by IL, and two losses by tOSU, and a loss by RU.
- 8-7 Michigan: Basically the same as Iowa. Winning out would give RU 7 losses, IL 5 losses, MSU 7 losses, and tOSU 6 losses but they'd still need PU to lose out, UW to beat PU but otherwise lose out, IL to lose two more, and tOSU to lose one more.
IU, PSU, UMD, NU, MN, and UNL each have at least nine losses so they are mathematically eliminated. Purdue can do no worse than 13-7 and none of them can do better than 11-9 which also couldn't catch UW or IL.
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Howard tries to knock another coach out on national tv and he gives him a 5 game suspension and fines him $40k.
I’m wondering if an unintended consequence of Howard punching/slapping the Wisconsin coach will be a broadening dialogue on whether the wave of hiring your school’s former NBA Star as your coach is already a flop?
Only a few weeks ago Anfernee Hardaway of Memphis lost his temper with the media. And Patrick Ewing is in year 5 with Georgetown and only has 1 NCAA Tournament appearance to show for it, on top of a 6-20 W/L record so far this season.
Hiring an NBA player alum provides an edge in recruiting, fundraising, and brings a bit of star power to the position, but it doesn’t appear these guys are masters of the Xs & Os or put in the film room hours or player development of their more Beilein like counterparts who were scholars of the boring details like clock management, player rotations, exploiting matchups, and handling the media.
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I would agree the ceiling for Diabate is very high because of his athleticism, but he is very raw. He’s definitely gotten better as the season had gone on. Is that coaching or experience I don’t know.
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It is interesting to me that Rutgers and Iowa are nearly exact opposites concerning their NET Rankings / Tournament chances.
Quality wins:
- Rutgers looks GREAT on this metric, they are near the top of the league with six Q1 wins. That is third in the league behind only the Boilermakers and Badgers (seven each) and it is more than IL (5), tOSU (4), MSU (3), M (3), IU (2).
- Iowa looks BAD on this metric, they are near the bottom of the league with just one Q1 win. That is tied with Northwestern for second-worst and only lowly Nebraska lacks a Q1 win.
Bad losses:
- Rutgers looks BAD on this metric. Their Q4 loss is one of only two by the entire B1G with the other being by Nebraska. They also have two Q3 losses which is tied with Northwestern for third worst in the league better only than UMD (4) and UNL (3).
- Iowa looks GREAT on this metric. They are 12-0 in Q3/4 games and a respectable 5-3 in Q2 games.
Looking ahead:
Locks:
- 13-4/24-4 Purdue: Two of their remaining three games are Q1 (@MSU, @UW) and the home game against IU is Q2 so even if they lost out they wouldn't take a bad loss. They are in.
- 12-4/21-5 Wisconsin: Wisconsin's worst-case-scenario is much worse than Purdue's both because the Badgers have more games left and because they have weaker opponents. Their game against PU is their only remaining Q1 game with @MN, @RU, and vUNL all being less impressive. Still, their worst-case-scenario is 12-8/21-10 and that would get them in.
Probably a Lock, definitely should be in:
- 12-4/19-7 Illinois: I think they are a lock because three of their remaining four games are Q1 so even losing out wouldn't involve more than one bad loss but they'd be sweating it out on Selection Sunday if they somehow finished 14-8/19-12.
Should be in:
- 10-5/17-7 Ohio State: The Buckeyes are going to be short games this year which makes it hard to compare to past teams' overall records but I think that two more wins locks it up for them (minimum of 19-11 at that point).
- 9-6/18-8 Michigan State: The good news / bad news for the Spartans is that four of their last five games are Q1 (@IA, vsPU, @M, @tOSU). That is good because it minimizes the chances of a bad loss (only vsUMD would be bad) but it is bad because all of those are very much losable games. This isn't a typical MSU team. They are only 3-5 in Q1 games and they have a Q3 loss (vsNU I think). I think two more wins locks it up for them (minimum of 20-14 at that point) but if they finish 20-14 they'll be a little nervous on Selection Sunday.
- 8-7/18-8 Iowa: As noted above the Hawkeyes' major weakness is a lack of quality wins. They picked up a nice one in Columbus over the weekend but that is literally their ONLY Q1 win. Their lack of quality wins probably will not keep them out of the tournament but it could quickly become problematic if they got closer to the bubble.
Work to do:
- 10-6/16-10 Rutgers: As noted above, Rutgers is Iowa's opposite with LOTS of quality wins but those are balanced off by too many bad losses. Three of their last four games are Q1 (@M, vsUW, @IU). That is good (opportunities for more quality wins) but bad (high chance of loss). IMHO, Rutgers' most critical remaining game is the home game against PSU to close out the season because they just can't take yet another bad loss especially because the others were early in the season so they might be forgiven.
- 8-7/14-11 Michigan: With 11 losses already the Wolverines just don't have many to give. Four of their last five games are Q1 (vsIL, vsMSU, vsIA, @tOSU). That is good because Michigan could use some quality wins (currently 3-7 Q1) but it is concerning because the biggest issue for the Wolverines is probably win volume.
- 7-9/16-10 Indiana: February has NOT been kind to the Hoosiers. At the end of January they were 16-5/7-4 and looked like a solid Tournament team. Since then they are 0-5. They haven't been all that bad. They only lost to UW by five and pushed tOSU to OT in Columbus but 0-5 is 0-5 and it isn't good. In the latest projection from Lunardi the Hoosiers are in a play-in game as one of the last four in. The good news is that the schedule is about to get much easier but the bad news is that the schedule is about to get much easier. They should win their home game against UMD this week and their trip to Minneapolis this weekend is far from scary but they have GOT to start getting W's.
Would need a miracle: These teams probably need to win the BTT but in theory if they won every game between now and the B1GCG they might get an at-large bid.
- 6-10/11-13 Penn State:
- 5-11/13-14 Maryland:
- 5-11/12-13 Northwestern:
- 4-12/13-12 Minnesota:
Would need to win BTT:
- 1-14/7-19 Nebraska: This team is just BAD.
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I don't have too many problems with Howard's basketball coaching this year. They lost a whole team, and counting on freshmen is always fraught with peril.
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I’m wondering if an unintended consequence of Howard punching/slapping the Wisconsin coach will be a broadening dialogue on whether the wave of hiring your school’s former NBA Star as your coach is already a flop?
Only a few weeks ago Anfernee Hardaway of Memphis lost his temper with the media. And Patrick Ewing is in year 5 with Georgetown and only has 1 NCAA Tournament appearance to show for it, on top of a 6-20 W/L record so far this season.
Hiring an NBA player alum provides an edge in recruiting, fundraising, and brings a bit of star power to the position, but it doesn’t appear these guys are masters of the Xs & Os or put in the film room hours or player development of their more Beilein like counterparts who were scholars of the boring details like clock management, player rotations, exploiting matchups, and handling the media.
In most sports I think that former superstar players tend to make lousy coaches. There are exceptions of course, but most great coaches were not spectacular players.
My theory is that superstar players tend to be athletically gifted which tends to mean that they learn the game differently from guys with more average athleticism. Guys who manage to turn more-or-less average athleticism into a serviceable career are, by definition, VERY GOOD at getting the most out of their athletic abilities and that is really what you need a coach to do.
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In Lunardi's latest the B1G has NINE teams in the dance but two of them need to win play-in games to make the 64-team field. The teams in are:
- #2 Purdue
- #3 Illinois, Wisconsin
- #5 Ohio State
- #6 Michigan State
- #7 Iowa
- #10 Rutgers
- #11 Michigan (play-in)
- #12 Indiana (play-in)
Based on the historical performance of those seeds (counting the play-in teams as 0.5 each), those seeds, on average, would result in:
- 5.26 teams in the R32
- 2.83 teams in the S16
- 1.29 teams in the E8
- 0.55 teams in the F4
- 0.28 teams in the NC
- 0.10 NC's
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In most sports I think that former superstar players tend to make lousy coaches. Their are exceptions of course, but most great coaches were not spectacular players.
My theory is that superstar players tend to be athletically gifted which tends to mean that they learn the game differently from guys with more average athleticism. Guys who manage to turn more-or-less average athleticism into a serviceable career are, by definition, VERY GOOD at getting the most out of their athletic abilities and that is really what you need a coach to do.
Agree 100%. Was just about to post this same thing. Can’t really think of a great coach in any of the major sports who was also a great player off the top of my head.
Maybe Larry Bird? But his run as a coach was super short. He only coached for a few years and never won a championship but was a good coach.
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Agree 100%. Was just about to post this same thing. Can’t really think of a great coach in any of the major sports who was also a great player off the top of my head.
Maybe Larry Bird? But his run as a coach was super short. He only coached for a few years and never won a championship but was a good coach.
Lenny Wilkins and Mike Ditka are probably the closest. Both were HOFers as players
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Iron Mike was not really a good coach. He had GM's named Jim Finks and then Jerry Vanisi, who gave him all the players he needed. Lots of guys could have won with that team. Frankly, they should have won 3-4 championships.
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Iron Mike was not really a good coach. He had GM's named Jim Finks and then Jerry Vanisi, who gave him all the players he needed. Lots of guys could have won with that team. Frankly, they should have won 3-4 championships.
The “shoulds” are always interesting.
In college it’s so different because your coach is your GM. Penny and Howard were hired as de facto GMs, with “coaches” as assistants. I don’t know that it’s a bad plan. I think Howard might be fine if not for being a loose cannon. Penny has a bad habit of trying to play all his talent.
And the biggest issue for both is neither has been able to land a really notable point guard of late.
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Michigan State's Tom Izzo not happy with idea of ending postgame handshake: 'Typical of our country right now' | Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/sports/michigan-state-tom-izzo-postgame-handshake)
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I thought the official statement Wisconsin put out there was interesting.
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Yeah. Gard getting that fine is complete BS.
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Amusing rumor sent to me suggesting a certain Pac coach will return to the state of NE to coach the most hapless of basketball programs. Interesting rumor to say the least.
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Yeah. Gard getting that fine is complete BS.
could you think any other way?
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I thought the official statement Wisconsin put out there was interesting.
I thought the same. Interesting is a good choice of words.
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I don't think MSU finishes within 5 games of first place
A rare moment of optimism from me
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And now the football players are getting first half PT. They have to hope beating Maryland at home, and then whatever 8-9 BTT game they get are both Ws. There ain't another one on the schedule
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The fact that Iowa as a program is better positioned to deal with the loss of Garza than we are the loss of Aaron Henry is a sad state of the program
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Izzo had a chance to replace Fife with a young offensive minded assistant, like Beilein did with Yaklich and his defense. Instead he just recycled through his friends. This is the result. The same stuff that got the fan base pissed at Dantonio is how Izzo wants to go out?
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQGahI-ZRME
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The fact that I have now seen media say that Howard feels invincible because of woke culture, and Gard was only not suspended because of racism, kind of sums up everything
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Man, Whitlock got weird. Well, weirder.
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could you think any other way?
Could you?
If Gard did something wrong, I would condemn it, just as I condemn Neath's role. There is no place for that, and he was suspended, as I said he would be, and should be.
Shouldn't need him to win the next game, but hey, it's on the road and you never know.
(I'm also on record here, stating Howard should not be fired.)
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQGahI-ZRME
Well... Juwan is from Chicago, so..
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Games played/remaining:
- 17 down, 3 to go: PU, NU
- 16 down, 4 to go: UW, IL, RU, IA, MSU, IU, PSU, UMD, MN, UNL
- 15 down, 5 to go: tOSU, M
Michigan plays tonight and again on Sunday so entering next week they'll be at 17/3 and they play MSU on Monday.
Ohio State plays tomorrow night and again on Sunday so entering next week they'll be at 17/3 and they play UNL on Monday.
The game tonight between Rutgers and Michigan is big for NCAA purposes because both teams are on or close to the bubble depending on who you ask.
For Rutgers a win would be yet another tier-1 win for the Scarlett Knights but actually a loss might ALSO give Rutgers another Q1 win because Michigan is at #33 in the NET rankings and Rutgers already beat them in Piscataway. If they lose in Ann Arbor that loss might move Michigan up into the top-30 which would elevate Rutgers' earlier win to Q1. A loss wouldn't hurt too badly because a road loss to #33 is easily Q1. Rutgers' remaining schedule is @M, vsUW, @IU, vsPSU and they are currently 16-10/10-6. I think they need to go at least 2-2 and vsPSU is the only one you can feel very confident about so a win here helps a lot. A loss isn't fatal but it reduces their margin for error.
For Michigan the biggest problem is that their total number of losses is approaching a point where it gets hard to get an at-large bid. They are 14-11/8-7 so they don't have a lot of losses to give. Their remaining schedule is vsRU, vsIL, vsMSU, vsIA, @tOSU. All except this one are Q1 but Michigan probably needs to go 3-2 to feel even remotely comfortable heading into the BTT. Having four home games certainly helps but none of Michigan's remaining opponents are easy. By net ranking Michigan's remaining opponents are:
- #14 IL at home
- #18 IA at home
- #19 tOSU on the road
- #35 MSU at home
- #80 RU at home
At least in theory this is Michigan's easiest remaining game so while losing wouldn't be fatal it would be problematic because it would necessitate winning probably three of their other remaining four.
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That's an interesting game tonight for Rutgers and Michigan, both needing every win they can get, and UM playing for the first time since The Incident and down two guys.
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Phil Martelli coaching Juwans players is a scary proposition for the rest of the conference
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Phil Martelli coaching Juwans players is a scary proposition for the rest of the conference
The jokes will arrive, and Howard can't win. If they're bad, he cost them a chance at the dance. If they're good, he doesn't matter. Not like Martelli hasn't already been doing most of that work.
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The jokes will arrive, and Howard can't win. If they're bad, he cost them a chance at the dance. If they're good, he doesn't matter. Not like Martelli hasn't already been doing most of that work.
That's the problem, isn't it?
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Welp, Wisconsin burped up a lease 8-point lead, lost Johnny Davis in a tie game for the final 2-plus minutes. Went ahead and won anyway.
UW functionally clinches a top-4 seed. Not too bad.
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Any road win is a good win.
@Rutgers is gonna be a tough one this weekend.
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MSU got a combined 8 points against Iowa from their 5 man* senior class
Bingham - 8
Brown - 0
Henry - NBA
Loyer - transferred to Davidson
Kithier - transferred to Valparaiso
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Any road win is a good win.
@Rutgers is gonna be a tough one this weekend.
Trying to decide how “must win” it is.
If they are to finish 2-1, you’d rather beat Purdue. But banking that one early would be nice.
Then again, if they could just win the next two, would take that.
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Welp, Wisconsin burped up a lease 8-point lead, lost Johnny Davis in a tie game for the final 2-plus minutes. Went ahead and won anyway.
UW functionally clinches a top-4 seed. Not too bad.
Wisconsin's win moves them up to 13-4, tied with Purdue for first place. The Badgers and Boilermakers play each other so the winner can do no worse than 14-6. That combined with Rutgers' loss at Michigan last night and Michigan State's loss at Iowa means that there are now only four teams left mathematically in the league title race:
- 13-4 Purdue, @MSU, @UW, vsIU: The Boilermakers control their own destiny to a league title. Winning out would take out the Badgers and beat anything the Buckeyes could do and PU would win a tie with IL.
- 13-4 Wisconsin, @RU, vsPU, vsUNL: The Badgers control their own destiny to a share of the league title but they need an IL loss to be THE league Champion as opposed to a league Champion. Winning out would take out PU and beat anything the Buckeyes could do but the Badgers lose a tie with IL.
- 12-4 Illinois, vstOSU, @M, vsPSU, vsIA: The Illini control their own destiny to a share of the league title but they need a PU loss to be THE league Champion as opposed to a league Champion. Winning gets them to no worse than a tie with the UW/PU winner but the Illini would lose a tie with PU.
- 10-5 Ohio State, @IL, @UMD, vsUNL, vsMSU, vsM: The Buckeyes would need a loss by the PU/UW winner to get a share of the league title. Winning out would take out Illinois and the PU/UW loser will have five losses but the Buckeyes would still need a loss by the PU/UW winner. As far as ties, the Buckeyes would win a tie with IL and lose a tie with PU. A tie with UW is more complicated since the Buckeyes and Badgers split so it would be determined based on record against the next best team.
All other teams have at least seven losses so they can't win even a share of the league title.
The IL/tOSU game tonight will most likely be Ohio State's exit from practical contention for the league title. Mathematically the Buckeyes could lose and still win at least a share of the league title but they'd be two games back in the loss column with three games to go for the teams ahead of them so they would need all three to go no better than 1-2 in their last three games. Mathematically possible, effectively not going to happen. Thus, an Illinois win moves the Illini into a three-way tie for first and drops the Buckeyes out of the race.
An Ohio State upset in Champaign would put a severe dent in Illinois' title chances while keeping Ohio State's title chances alive (albeit on life support). After an Ohio State win both the Illini (12-5) and the Buckeyes (11-5) would be just one game back in the loss column behind PU/UW with a guarantee that one of the two will lose on Monday when they play each other. Purdue and Wisconsin are both on the road this weekend at Rutgers and Michigan State respectively. If one of them loses this weekend then beats the other on Monday that would open things up for a potential 5-loss champion but otherwise the chances are slim since the Badgers and Boilermakers finish their seasons with relatively tame home games (UNL and IU). There is almost zero chance of the Cornhuskers going into Madison and winning and while the IU/PU game is a rivalry and the Hoosiers DID win the first meeting, that was in Bloomington. I have a hard time seeing an Indiana team currently on a 5-game losing streak suddenly finding themselves and winning in W. Lafayette.
As @bayareabadger (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1571) stated, Purdue and Wisconsin have effectively wrapped up top-4 seeds. Each of their worst-case-scenario is 13-7 which could be no worse than tied for fourth behind the other one, Illinois, and Ohio State. In theory they could be tied with Rutgers, the Iowa/M winner, and the MSU/M winner. While this is mathematically possible the chances are less than remote since it would require them to lose out and these other teams to win out and they still might win the tie and get a top-4 seed anyway.
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Top four seeds:
As stated above first by @bayareabadger (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1571) and then reiterated by me, Purdue and Wisconsin have effectively clinched.
Illinois will effectively clinch with a win over Ohio State tonight. If not . . . hold on.
Ohio State at 10-5 is two games ahead in the loss column of:
- 10-7 Rutgers, vsUW, @IU, vsPSU
- 9-7 Iowa, vsNU, @M, @IL
- 9-7 Michigan State, vsPU, @M, @tOSU, vsUMD
- 9-7 Michigan, vsIL, vsMSU, vsIA, @tOSU
The problem for the Buckeyes is that they would lose almost any tie:
- The Buckeyes are 0-1 against Rutgers (lost there) and do not play again
- The Buckeyes are 0-1 against Iowa (lost at home) and do not play again
- The Buckeyes are 0-0 against Michigan State but in order for MSU to tie tOSU they would almost certainly have to beat tOSU thus also gaining the tiebreaker.
- The Buckeyes are 1-0 against Michigan but in order for M to tie tOSU they would almost certainly have to beat tOSU thus tying up that tiebreaker.
The only tie in there that Ohio State could possibly win would be a two-team tie with the Wolverines and even that is no guarantee. It would come down to record against the best team(s) in the league which would be PU, UW, and IL in an order TBD. For those:
- tOSU is 0-1 against PU, M is 1-1.
- tOSU is 1-1 against UW, M is 0-1.
- tOSU is 0-0 against IL, M is 0-1 and both teams play IL again.
In order for Ohio State and Michigan to end up tied the Illini would likely have to beat tOSU and lose to M so that tiebreaker wouldn't work for tOSU either.
It isn't likely that any specific one of the 7-loss teams will win out but I also think it isn't all that unlikely that one of them will. Ohio State doesn't have much margin for error to hang on to a top-4 seed.
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Wisconsin‘s effective clinch is even more clear when you consider it closes the season with Nebraska at home
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Wisconsin‘s effective clinch is even more clear when you consider it closes the season with Nebraska at home
True but I've already assumed one win for either PU or UW and it isn't all that unlikely that Wisconsin could lose at Rutgers then lose to Purdue in which case they'd finish 14-6 with a win over Nebraska and 14-6 was already my floor because the PU/UW winner can do no worse mathematically.
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Yeah, I get the idea of effective clinch... But think about this...
Only one of PU and UW has clinched--we just don't know which one yet. Worst case for the winner is 14-6.
The loser of that game could finish 13-7.
Illinois is currently 12-4 and could conceivably finish as low as 12-8. However, let's assume that they lose to tOSU, M, and IA, the three teams currently sitting at 7 losses, and beat PSU who is a non-factor. Then they're at 13-7.
That would give tOSU a win over Illinois, but two more losses (they have 5 games remaining, let's say they lose to MSU and M who are the remaining 7-loss teams). They're at 13-7.
Rutgers can win out without affecting any remaining 7-loss teams. So they can get to 13-7 with a home win over UW, and then wins over teams below them in the standings.
Iowa and MSU can conceivably both finish at 13-7 because they don't play each other. Michigan can finish 13-7 but only if they beat BOTH IA and MSU, meaning M at 13-7 would knock both teams out of 13-7 contention.
So you could conceivably have one B1G team with the sole title at 14-6 or better, and then a six-way logjam at second:
- UW/Purdue loser
- Illinois
- tOSU
- Rutgers
- Iowa
- MSU
You could also have a 5-way logjam, just dropping both Iowa and MSU and replacing them with M.
This scenario isn't likely, of course...
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UW not bad this year. Predicted to finish 10th in the conference.
FIRE GARD!!!
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UW not bad this year. Predicted to finish 10th in the conference.
FIRE GARD!!!
And hire Tucker! :)
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True but I've already assumed one win for either PU or UW and it isn't all that unlikely that Wisconsin could lose at Rutgers then lose to Purdue in which case they'd finish 14-6 with a win over Nebraska and 14-6 was already my floor because the PU/UW winner can do no worse mathematically.
I was looking at the 13-7 part. M'bad there.
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Wisconsin is also 8-0 in Big Ten games and 13-1 overall in games decided by 6 points or less.
Which is why the predictive metrics don't really line up with their record. KenPom's luck rating, whatever that is, has them #6 in the nation, which is the highest of any team in his top 40
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Better to win games by 6 points than to lose games by 6 points.
I hope they win all of the rest of their games by less than 6 points.
I'll be happy, and I'll also lose weight because I'll be at target heart rate a lot.
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Wisconsin is also 8-0 in Big Ten games and 13-1 overall in games decided by 6 points or less.
Which is why the predictive metrics don't really line up with their record. KenPom's luck rating, whatever that is, has them #6 in the nation, which is the highest of any team in his top 40
Yep. That “luck” is just the difference between how a team with that statistical profile against that schedule wild do, on average, and how they actually did.
That success in close games tends to not be predictive (ie, teams that win a lot of close games don’t tend to win close games at a high mark going forward overall), but if UW wants to keep doing it, I’ll take it
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Better to win games by 6 points than to lose games by 6 points.
I hope they win all of the rest of their games by less than 6 points.
I'll be happy, and I'll also lose weight because I'll be at target heart rate a lot.
Badge. Don’t do that to me. Let’s get some nice easy ones where we get to see how Gilmore and Ilver are coming along.
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Yep. That “luck” is just the difference between how a team with that statistical profile against that schedule wild do, on average, and how they actually did.
That success in close games tends to not be predictive (ie, teams that win a lot of close games don’t tend to win close games at a high mark going forward overall), but if UW wants to keep doing it, I’ll take it
Until you get a team like Providence, who is #1, and then last night has their roof start leaking water, pausing a game they looked ready to lose to Xavier, and wind up pulling it out in 2OT.
They might just be having one of THOSE years.
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Better to win games by 6 points than to lose games by 6 points.
I hope they win all of the rest of their games by less than 6 points.
I'll be happy, and I'll also lose weight because I'll be at target heart rate a lot.
Badge. Don’t do that to me. Let’s get some nice easy ones where we get to see how Gilmore and Ilver are coming along.
If it helps, I wouldn't mind Purdue jumping out to an early huge lead and cruising to a 15-point win over the Badgers.
Y'all could just turn off your TVs and do other things stress-free, and it would help my heart survive too :72:
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Until you get a team like Providence, who is #1, and then last night has their roof start leaking water, pausing a game they looked ready to lose to Xavier, and wind up pulling it out in 2OT.
They might just be having one of THOSE years.
Ehh, UW gave up an 8-point lead in 1:01, lost their star, won anyway. Badgers and Providence are like peas in a pod.
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If it helps, I wouldn't mind Purdue jumping out to an early huge lead and cruising to a 15-point win over the Badgers.
Y'all could just turn off your TVs and do other things stress-free, and it would help my heart survive too :72:
I was looking back at some old posts after a Purdue game. Not good for my heart.
That game is gonna be weird because of what might or might not be riding on it for UW, especially considering nothing would be "final" but it also kinda would be.
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I was looking back at some old posts after a Purdue game. Not good for my heart.
That game is gonna be weird because of what might or might not be riding on it for UW, especially considering nothing would be "final" but it also kinda would be.
I highly doubt that it would be final, but I *THINK* that it could be.
Follow this:
- tOSU beats IL tonight moving tOSU up to 11-5 and IL down to 12-5
- UW wins at RU this weekend moving UW up to 14-4
- PU wins at MSU this weekend moving PU up to 14-4
Heading into the PU/UW game next week they would be a game up on IL/tOSU in the loss column (maybe more since both tOSU and IL play another game before that) and tied with just one game remaining after that.
The UW/PU winner would move to 15-4 and could do no worse than 15-5. In this scenario that would lock up at least a share of the title for either and the title for PU since at that point they would win any tie. Wisconsin would win almost any tie also and it really doesn't matter since their final game is at home against Nebraska. Even if we maintain the mathematical possibility that UW *COULD* lose at home to UNL, they would still finish no worse than tied with PU/tOSU/IL.
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Updated NET rankings for B1G teams:
- #10 Purdue, 7-3 in Q1, 0 Q3/4 losses
- #14 Illinois, 4-4 in Q1, 0 Q3/4 losses
- #18 Iowa, 1-5 in Q1, 0 Q3/4 losses
- #19 Ohio State, 4-5 in Q1, 0 Q3/4 losses
- #20 Wisconsin, 7-3 in Q1, 0 Q3/4 losses
- #33 Michigan, 3-7 in Q1, 1 Q3 loss
- #36 Michigan State, 3-6 in Q1, 1 Q3 loss
- #43 Indiana, 2-6 in Q1, 0 Q3/4 losses
- #77 Northwestern, 1-9 in Q1, 2 Q3 losses
- #83 Rutgers, 5-4 in Q1, 2 Q3 losses, 1 Q4 loss
- #85 Penn State, 1-8 in Q1, 1 Q3 loss
- #95 Maryland, 1-7 in Q1, 4 Q3 losses
- #101 Minnesota, 2-10 in Q1, 1 Q3 loss
- #188 Nebraska, 0-9 in Q1, 4 Q3 losses, 1 Q4 loss
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EJ Liddell questionable for tonight's game - flu
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EJ Liddell questionable for tonight's game
I didn't think Ohio State had much of a chance anyway but if Liddell is out or even just weakened then Ohio State really has no chance in Champaign on fairly short rest against a very good Illini squad.
Realistically the Buckeyes would probably be better off to rest Liddell and just assume a loss in Champaign but hope to have him back at full strength for more winnable games coming up.
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What does a coach have to do to get fired in Lincoln?
https://twitter.com/JimmyWatkins95/status/1497000501740806150?t=hqkIhX5z3vkCiBpv6glrhQ&s=19
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What does a coach have to do to get fired in Lincoln?
https://twitter.com/JimmyWatkins95/status/1497000501740806150?t=hqkIhX5z3vkCiBpv6glrhQ&s=19
Hit an opposing coach? 🥴
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What does a coach have to do to get fired in Lincoln?
https://twitter.com/JimmyWatkins95/status/1497000501740806150?t=hqkIhX5z3vkCiBpv6glrhQ&s=19
it's just basketball
no big deal
still selling tickets
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What has to happen in order for Wisconsin and Michigan to square off early in the Big Ten Tournament?
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OSU putting a dent in my dreams of making the conference title race any easier for Purdue or Wisconsin
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What does a coach have to do to get fired in Lincoln?
https://twitter.com/JimmyWatkins95/status/1497000501740806150?t=hqkIhX5z3vkCiBpv6glrhQ&s=19
Cost less to fire
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it's just basketball
no big deal
still selling tickets
To who?
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The thought was always he was a two a done. A lot of honesty here. I think what is overlooked is how none of the other wings can defend. Hall is too slow, and may still be our second best, due to his size and footwork
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To who?
crazy husker fans
luckily season tickets were sold BEFORE the season started
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Bill Walton has 8 Pac 12 teams in, including a sub-.500 Stanford. Right on brand.
Lunardi has 3, with Oregon in the NEXT four out
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Murray State just beat Belmont by 30. They are going to wind up being a top 6 seed. Their coach has been there since 2015, got Ja. Someone has to take a shot at him. He's only 43
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The refs already let Brad get away with those tight pants, he was walking a tightrope
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Well that was more difficult than it probably needed to be
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FManEG4XIAAXM6M?format=jpg&name=small)
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Well Loogit those buckeyes. Making things more interesting.
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Malaki Branham should be POTY...next year. Please baby Jesus next year.
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Bill Walton has 8 Pac 12 teams in, including a sub-.500 Stanford. Right on brand.
Lunardi has 3, with Oregon in the NEXT four out
I thought he got off the weed. I guess not.
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Well Loogit those buckeyes. Making things more interesting.
New projection is that tOSU and UW will tie for the league title at 15-5 with IL and PU a game back at 14-6. If it actually worked out this way I think that tOSU would win the tie:
First tiebreaker is H2H but tOSU and UW split.
Second tiebreaker is record against the next best team(s) in the league which in this case would be IL/PU:
Wisconsin:
- 2-0 vs PU (won there already, hosting 3/1 projected to win)
- 0-1 vs IL (no game in Madison, lost in Champaign)
- 2-1 total
Ohio State:
- 0-1 vs PU (lost there, no game in Columbus)
- 1-0 vs IL (won there, no game in Columbus)
- 1-1 total
Never mind, UW would win that tie and get the #1 seed while tOSU would get the #2 seed.
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I thought he got off the weed. I guess not.
what made you think something crazy like that?
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Updated projected final standings:
- 15-5/24-6 Wisconsin (wins tie over tOSU based on record against the 14-6 teams)
- 15-5/22-7 Ohio State
- 14-6/25-6 Purdue (wins tie over IL based on H2H sweep)
- 14-6/22-9 Illinois
- 12-8/18-12 Rutgers (wins tie over M based on record against tOSU/UW)
- 12-8/18-12 Michigan
- 11-9/21-10 Iowa (wins tie over MSU based on H2H, no game in E. Lansing)
- 11-9/20-11 Michigan State
- 9-11/18-12 Indiana
- 8-12/13-15 Penn State
- 7-13/14-15 Northwestern
- 6-14/14-17 Maryland
- 5-15/14-15 Minnesota
- 1-19/7-24 Nebraska
Based on that the match-ups at the B1G Tournament in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:
- #11 Northwestern vs #14 Nebraska, 830 BTN
- #12 Maryland vs #13 Minnesota, 6 BTN
Thursday, March 10, 2022:
- #5 Rutgers vs UMD/MN, 230 BTN
- #6 Michigan vs NU/UNL, 9 BTN
- #7 Iowa vs #10 Penn State, 630 BTN
- #8 Michigan State vs #9 Indiana, noon BTN
Friday, March 11, 2022:
- #1 Wisconsin vs MSU/IU, noon BTN
- #2 Ohio State vs IA/PSU, 630 BTN
- #3 Purdue vs M/NU/UNL, 9 BTN
- #4 Illinois vs RU/UMD/MN, 230 BTN
Saturday, March 12, 2022:
- UW/MSU/IU vs IL/RU/UMD/MN, 1 CBS
- tOSU/IA/PSU vs PU/M/NU/UNL, 330 CBS
Sunday, March 13, 2022:
- UW/MSU/IU/IL/RU/UMD/MN vs tOSU/IA/PSU/PU/M/NU/UNL, 330 CBS
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(https://i.imgur.com/CyTEr4p.png)
The columns are current record then team then the three or four remaining games with projected result then projected final standings.
The intended purpose here is that you can use this to help analyze hypothetical what-if situations. Ie, if you are a Wisconsin fan you can say:
- If the Badgers beat RU and everything else goes as projected then they'll be outright champs, or
- If the Badgers lose to PU and everything else goes as projected then they'll finish tied with IL for 3rd/4th
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Handy-dandy tie-breaker chart, includes projected results for games not yet played, see above for projections:
(https://i.imgur.com/bdI1KsF.png)
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A Big Ten championship would be nice, but I just want to get a top 4 seed to get an extra day off. I wouldn't even mind losing a 4-5 or 3-6 game in the BTT. The team was worn out last year for the tourney and I'd like to see if they could make a Sweet 16 run if rested this time around.
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To who?
check out FS1
packed house
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My mini postweek Bracket update (not including last night games)
Big Ten NCAA teams
- Purdue - 2 seed (no movement)
- Wisconsin - 4 seed (no movement)
- Ohio State - 4 seed (+1)
- Illinois - 5 seed (-1)
- Iowa - 7 seed (no movement)
- Michigan State - 7 seed (no movement)
- Michigan - 9 seed (+1)
In/Out
Big Ten NIT Teams
- Indiana - 1 seed (down from NCAA First Four)
- Rutgers - 3 seed (-1)
- Minnesota - 7 seed (was previously #1 team out)
NIT In/Out
- Minnesota replaces Penn State
Remaining Big Ten teams
- Penn State - #2 team out
- Northwestern - #5 team out
- Maryland - #8 team out
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These two game today are huge for Illinois' and Ohio State's title hopes.
In order for either the Buckeyes or Illini to win a share of the league, Purdue (at MSU today) and Wisconsin (at Rutgers today) both have to lose at least once each. One of those is automatic when Purdue visits Wisconsin on Tuesday and the other one pretty much needs to be today.
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Why does Hummel call every Purdue game? He's very good otherwise, but Jesus he's a homer
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Sloppy final minute. Miss the front end of a one and one, and then foul a jump shooter. Potential five-point swing there from a 7-point lead if you make those FTs, to a 2 point lead
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Treveon Williams holds on almost every defensive possession. And almost is me being generous.
Robbie Hummel still whining though
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I get the possibilities with Holmgren, but man, I think I would take Jaden Ivey #1 overall. If the Pistons get him, I'll be delighted, although there might be some overlap with him and Cunningham
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DJ Carstenstein is far worse official than Bo Boroski
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We went from trading made 3s for FTs to trading missed 3s for FTs. Purdue's defense is awful, and MSU can't make open 3s.
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Definitely going to lose by 2 after leading the entire game, so I also lose my bet, because that's exactly how this season has gone.
I hate that timeout from Izzo. MSU has been getting whatever they want when Williams is in the game. Purdue getting back into it coincided with Edey coming in.
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Wow, Williams still in
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Hoggard such a bad FT shooter.
Misses the front end going into the half, that could have pushed it to 7, now misses an and 1
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I hate the monitor check. If Izzo thinks it should be MSUs ball, then let him use a TO to challenge it
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How ridiculous that the refs call timeout after every play. This last minute has taken ages - takes all the energy out of the game
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Single dumbest play in MSU history, granted should have gotten away with it, but it looks like the refs are going to screw us one last time here with this call.
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Are they trying to make basketball unwatchable?
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Well, at least it ended
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Has to be the worst back to back to back inbounds there from both teams in the final 1.4 seconds
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Was that Robbie on the call? I thought it was Jay.
Also, the stakes of Wisconsin‘s game tonight just got extremely high
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Was that Robbie on the call? I thought it was Jay.
Also, the stakes of Wisconsin‘s game tonight just got extremely high
ESPN needs to pull him from Purdue games. It got to the point that Jason Bennetti was rushing to overcompensate the other way before Robbie could spew some other Purdue propaganda. At one point after a foul on Purdue, Jason immediately goes "That is a good call, no it's a great call, absolutely a great call." He could read the sitution
Also, is Jason Bennitti the best PBP guy out there? He's great at both basketball and MLB
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A ground war in eastern Europe and Arkansas basketball being good is more 90s throwback than the Boy Meets World reboot
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ESPN needs to pull him from Purdue games. It got to the point that Jason Bennetti was rushing to overcompensate the other way before Robbie could spew some other Purdue propaganda. At one point after a foul on Purdue, Jason immediately goes "That is a good call, no it's a great call, absolutely a great call." He could read the sitution
Also, is Jason Bennitti the best PBP guy out there? He's great at both basketball and MLB
Bennitti is up there. Just solid, modest pluses, no minuses.
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Also, the stakes of Wisconsin‘s game tonight just got extremely high
Missed this portion. Love the fact that the regular season title is still what Big Ten fans care about. And yes, it is.
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Missed this portion. Love the fact that the regular season title is still what Big Ten fans care about. And yes, it is.
The ranking of accomplishments:
1. Something big in March
2. Not doing something that brings shame in March
3. Conference title
4. Very strong conference showing (like a 2nd or third in a good year
5. Maybe some other stuff?
6. Conference tournament title.
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The ranking of accomplishments:
1. Something big in March
2. Not doing something that brings shame in March
3. Conference title
4. Very strong conference showing (like a 2nd or third in a good year
5. Maybe some other stuff?
6. Conference tournament title.
I would flip #2 and #3. I would take a Big Ten title over a Sweet 16
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I would flip #2 and #3. I would take a Big Ten title over a Sweet 16
I guess I was thinking in part in terms of memorability.
Like, the Bridges-JJJ MSU team was an outright champ, and you kinda remember them more for Syracuse. Also, I if you'd made a bar bet, I would've wagered several rounds that the MSU team that MTSU caught was easily the conference champ. But no, two games behind Ferrell, Blackmon and the Creanettes.
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How ridiculous that the refs call timeout after every play. This last minute has taken ages - takes all the energy out of the game
I sent my wife a text at 2:03 telling her it was 65-63 with 51.2 seconds to go. She decided to wait for me rather than going to get tea from McDonald's because it was only a minute. I got out there twenty minutes later.
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I guess I was thinking in part in terms of memorability.
Like, the Bridges-JJJ MSU team was an outright champ, and you kinda remember them more for Syracuse. Also, I if you'd made a bar bet, I would've wagered several rounds that the MSU team that MTSU caught was easily the conference champ. But no, two games behind Ferrell, Blackmon and the Creanettes.
They had a rough two weeks when Valentine was hurt, I think lost 4 of 5 in early January, and Indiana had the most hilariously easy schedule in Big Ten history relative to year.
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I sent my wife a text at 2:03 telling her it was 65-63 with 51.2 seconds to go. She decided to wait for me rather than going to get tea from McDonald's because it was only a minute. I got out there twenty minutes later.
I did not know McDonalds sold tea. Pinkies out on a styrophome cup?
And that is not a judgment of McDonald's. The pendulum has swung too hard against them for too long.
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I did not know McDonalds sold tea. Pinkies out on a styrophome cup?
And that is not a judgment of McDonald's. The pendulum has swung too hard against them for too long.
Sweat tea ... northerner :)
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Sweat tea ... northerner :)
I'll do Snapple or Arizona
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Texas trying to get in on the bad inbounding theme of the afternoon
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Sweat tea ... northerner :)
I did not know McDonalds sold tea. Pinkies out on a styrophome cup?
And that is not a judgment of McDonald's. The pendulum has swung too hard against them for too long.
She just loves their sweet tea but:
Half cut, light ice.
I know that well from all the times I've picked it up for her.
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The effort that MSU showed today was tremendous. They deserved to win.
The way Purdue played, they deserved to lose... To Nebraska.
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The effort that MSU showed today was tremendous. They deserved to win.
The way Purdue played, they deserved to lose... To Nebraska.
I think it would be harder for Purdue to lose to Nebraska than beat the Spartans.
Or the Pistons.
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Heck of a game in Piscataway.
If Rutgers can win this we'll have four teams in control of their own destiny for at least a share of the league title.
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Back in the day you had to sweeten your own McTea with sugar packets.
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Wisconsin with another inconsistent but ultimately successful outing.
One of the best first halves of the year, and frankly should've been up more with how they were playing. Still, up 9 with foul trouble was good. Rutgers made its run, UW also got pretty iffy. Hosts even went ahead, but UW just did UW stuff, making enough plays, finally pulled it out.
And now the Badgers only have to beat Nebraska at home, even if they lose to Purdue on Tuesday, to take a share of the conference title. Of course, if they top the Boilers in a few days, they can cut some nets right away.
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Assuming that Wisconsin isn't going to lose at home to the Cornhuskers, the Badgers have clinched a share of the title and eliminated all but Purdue, Illinois, and Ohio State.
If Wisconsin beats Purdue they practically clinch the title outright and mathematically clinch at least a share.
Ohio State needs to beat Maryland tomorrow and Nebraska Tuesday (before the PU/UW game) then root for Purdue then beat the two Michigan schools (both at home).
Illinois needs to beat Michigan tomorrow, root for Purdue on Tuesday then win home games against PSU and Iowa.
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https://twitter.com/MichiganStOnBTN/status/1497681721789140997?t=lL9xWsdgLFyvT02ltMWy0w&s=19
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Has the top 6 ranked teams losing on the same day ever happened???
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Has the top 6 ranked teams losing on the same day ever happened???
Nope. Neither had 7 of the top 10
https://sports.yahoo.com/chaos-reigns-college-basketball-top-10-teams-upsets-042026837.html
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Dug out my password for the first time in years just to say thanks Medina for posting your charts with projected results/standings. I like to read the reaction here but after UW pulled it out yesterday the first thing I came to check out was what things look like based on potential results this week.
I wasn’t real excited with the transition from Bo to Gard and how things have looked with Gard at the helm, but at this point I’ve just come to accept what it is and enjoy the ride and be glad for the wins.
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Nope. Neither had 7 of the top 10
https://sports.yahoo.com/chaos-reigns-college-basketball-top-10-teams-upsets-042026837.html
unfortunately, the Huskers couldn't upset the Hawkeyes the other night
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Taken from my own post on another board.
Wisconsin lost five of eight rotation players, including four of the top five scorers from a disappointing but decent team.
They added no starting quality transfers
They had to start a freshman
The other 75 percent of the incoming class redshirted or functionally redshirted
The highest-rated recruit on the roster hasn't given them much
And they're almost assuredly going to get the program's sixth conference title since the Truman administration.
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Dug out my password for the first time in years just to say thanks Medina for posting your charts with projected results/standings. I like to read the reaction here but after UW pulled it out yesterday the first thing I came to check out was what things look like based on potential results this week.
You are welcome and thank you.
Right now Purdue needs to beat your team, Ohio State and Illinois need to win their games and root against your team, and everyone else is out.
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I was thinking about how OSU-Maryland meant something at some point. Back when everyone was sore about Turgeon. It felt like a while ago, considering Maryland feels like basically a schedule break for most of the contenders.
And then I pulled stuff up and remembered that Maryland won a share of a conference title all of two years ago, and people saw it as a disappointment because they went 2-3 down the stretch. It wasn't even like that team was loaded with talent. They had six guys, four pretty good CBB players, a small guard and a skinny good big.
That team was seen as a disappointment, and two years later, this.
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Ohio State's title hopes are now on life support.
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Ohio State's title hopes are now on life support.
The perils of basketball. OSU has had, by my count, around 100 open three pointers, and made like 3.
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Even though I have played varsity basketball and a class a school in high school, and plenty of other leagues and intramurals, I really don’t get into college basketball until right about now when the tournament is coming.
Having said that, I have flipped on Ohio State three or four times this year including today for a little while, and every time I wash them they look like they absolutely stink. No Interior Defense horrible shooting, horrible shot selection. But then I keep seeing the sports page and that they won this game or that game. I have obviously turned it off for today
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Got the 50/50 balls against Illinois and nit getting them today. Also yes many wide open 3s were missed.
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And Ohio State bows out of the title race.
I'm assuming here that Wisconsin is going to win at home against last place Nebraska next week. With that assumption:
If Wisconsin beats Purdue at home they win the title outright.
If Purdue beats Wisconsin the Badgers still win at least a share of the title but they share it with:
- Purdue, if they beat Indiana and/or
- Illinois if they win home games over both PSU and Iowa
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Yesterday was just a weird day. All four games in the B1G were upsets relative to what we projected. Updated projected final standings/BTT seeds heading into the final week:
- 16-4/25-5 Wisconsin
- 15-5/23-8 Illinois
- 14-6/25-6 Purdue (wins tie with tOSU based on H2H, no game in Columbus)
- 14-6/21-8 Ohio State
- 11-9/17-13 Rutgers
- 11-9/17-13 Michigan
- 11-9/20-11 Michigan State
- 11-9/21-10 Iowa
- 10-10/19-11 Indiana
- 7-13/15-16 Maryland
- 7-13/12-16 Penn State
- 7-13/14-15 Northwestern
- 4-16/13-16 Minnesota
- 2-18/8-23 Nebraska
Thus the match-ups at the B1G Tournament in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:
- #11 Penn State vs #14 Nebraska, 830 BTN
- #12 Northwestern vs #13 Minnesota, 6 BTN
Thursday, March 10, 2022:
- #5 Rutgers vs NU/MN, 230 BTN
- #6 Michigan vs PSU/UNL, 9 BTN
- #7 Michigan State vs #10 Maryland, 630 BTN
- #8 Iowa vs #9 Indiana, noon BTN
Friday, March 11, 2022:
- #1 Wisconsin vs IA/IU, noon BTN
- #2 Illinois vs MSU/UMD, 630 BTN
- #3 Purdue vs M/PSU/UNL, 9 BTN
- #4 Ohio State vs RU/NU/MN, 230 BTN
Saturday, March 12, 2022:
- UW/IA/IU vs tOSU/RU/NU/MN, 1 CBS
- IL/MSU/UMD vs PU/M/PSU/UNL, 330 CBS
Sunday, March 13, 2022:
- UW/IA/IU/tOSU/RU/NU/MN vs IL/MSU/UMD/PU/M/PSU/UNL, 330 CBS
Tiebreaker for the 11-9 teams:
First is H2H2H2H:
- 1-3 Michigan State (does not host RU or IA)
- 3-1 Rutgers (does not visit MSU or IA)
- 4-2 Michigan (won at IA)
- 1-3 Iowa (does not visit MSU or host RU, lost to M at home)
Thus Rutgers gets the #5 seed and Michigan gets the #6 seed. MSU and Iowa do NOT revert to their own two-team H2H but move to the next step:
Second step (for only MSU and Iowa) is record against the best team (UW):
- 1-1 Michigan State split with the Badgers with each team winning on the other team's court.
- 0-1 Iowa lost their only game with the Badgers, in Madison.
Thus MSU gets the #7 seed and Iowa gets the #8 seed
Tiebreaker for the 7-13 teams:
First is H2H2H:
- 2-1 Maryland (does not visit PSU)
- 2-1 Penn State (does not host UMD, swept NU)
- 1-3 Northwestern (reverse split with UMD, swept by PSU)
Thus Northwestern gets the #12 seed. UMD and PSU do NOT revert to their own two-team H2H but move to the next step:
Second step (for only UMD and PSU) is record against the best team(s) in the league, then the next, etc). Maryland wins this based on their upset of Illinois. Thus Maryland gets the #10 seed while PSU gets the #11 seed.
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Projected finish to the season:
(https://i.imgur.com/7hy7NSu.png)
At the far left are the teams' current records then the teams then their game(s) this week and projected result(s), then their game this weekend and projected result then finally projected final standings.
Handy-dandy tiebreaker chart.
(https://i.imgur.com/uxhBA6C.png)
This reads down not across so looking at the Wisconsin columns, the Badgers are:
- 0-1 against IL
- 1-1 against tOSU
- 2-0 against PU
- etc
NOTE that this INCLUDES projections for games not yet played. Ie, UW is NOT 2-0 against PU yet. They are 1-0 having won in West Lafayette and they are projected to win the home game against PU tomorrow.
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I don’t know how it will fall, but let me say that Iowa-Indiana would be a pretty damn strong 8-9 game
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I don’t know how it will fall, but let me say that Iowa-Indiana would be a pretty damn strong 8-9 game
It sure would.
I think this is related to @bayareabadger (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1571) 's point above:
The conference race is unusually tight all the way up and down the standings. Usually at this point in the year I start talking about what BTT seeds have been clinched but right now none of them have been clinched. Every team in the conference is within +/- 1 game of at least one other team with only two exceptions:
- 13th place Minnesota is two games down on 11th/12th place UMD/NU and two games up on 14th place Nebraska.
- 14th place Nebraska is two games down on 13th place MN
Nonetheless, neither team has clinched a seed yet because:
- Minnesota could do as well as 6-14 which could be tied with UMD and/or NU and the Gophers would win a tie with the Wildcats.
- Conversely the Gophers could do as poorly as 4-16 which could be tied with UNL and the Gophers would lose a tie with the Cornhuskers. Thus literally none of the BTT seeds are definitively established at this point.
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the Huskers looked good last night, but they're not going 2-0 in their last games
unless of course their opponents lay down to rest starters
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Going to try to post an updated NCAA and NIT Bracketology each week, simply 2/3 SOR, and 1/3 KenPom. Things should come into focus more as we go on. Still have some outliers.
For auto-bid purposes, I'm assuming whoever is in first gets the autobid, but that the highest ranked KenPom team wins the tournament
February 28 update
NCAA
SOUTH
- #1 Baylor vs. #16 Gardner Webb/Texas Southern
- #8 Boise State vs. #9 Marquette
- #5 ILLINOIS vs. #12 Memphis/Xavier
- #4 Arkansas vs. #13 Towson
- #3 Tennessee vs. #14 Furman
- #6 OHIO STATE vs. #11 San Diego State
- #7 Murray State vs. #10 San Francisco
- #2 Gonzaga vs. #15 South Alabama
MIDWEST
- #1 Kansas vs. #16 Colgate/Nicholls
- #8 Seton Hall vs. #9 Notre Dame
- #5 Alabama vs. #12 South Dakota State
- #4 Houston vs. #13 Iona
- #3 Villanova vs. #14 Toledo
- #6 LSU vs. #11 MICHIGAN
- #7 Iowa State vs. #10 North Texas
- #2 PURDUE vs. #15 Montana State
EAST
- #1 Kentucky vs. #16 Norfolk State
- #8 North Carolina vs. #9 Davidson
- #5 Providence vs. #12 Miami/SMU
- #4 Texas vs. #13 Vermont
- #3 WISCONSIN vs. #14 Princeton
- #6 USC vs. #11 Loyola(Chi)
- #7 MICHIGAN STATE vs. #10 TCU
- #2 Duke vs. #15 Liberty
WEST
- #1 Auburn vs. #16 Oakland
- #8 Colorado State vs. #9 Wake Forest
- #5 Connecticut vs. #12 VCU
- #4 UCLA vs. #13 NM State
- #3 Texas Tech vs. #14 Wagner
- #6 Saint Mary's vs. #11 INDIANA
- #7 IOWA vs. #10 Wyoming
- #2 Arizona vs. #15 UC Irvine
NIT
OMAHA
- #1 Creighton vs. #8 Alcorn State
- #4 Virginia vs. #5 Texas A&M
- #3 Kansas State vs. #6 Richmond
- #2 Belmont vs. #7 Longwood
BLACKSBURG
- #1 Virginia Tech vs. #8 New Orleans
- #4 Chattanooga vs. #5 Saint Louis
- #3 RUTGERS vs. #6 Texas State
- #2 Mississippi State vs. #7 Jacksonville State
PROVO
- #1 BYU vs. #8 Cleveland State
- #4 West Virginia vs. #5 Oregon
- #3 South Carolina vs. #6 Northern Iowa
- #2 St. Bonaventure vs. #7 UNC Wilmington
GAINESVILLE
- #1 Florida vs. #8 Bryant
- #4 UAB vs. #5 Colorado
- #3 Dayton vs. #6 Central Florida
- #2 Oklahoma vs. #7 Long Beach State
Remaining Big Ten Teams
- Maryland - #2 team out
- Northwestern - #10 team out
- Minnesota - #11 team out
- Penn State - #14 team out
- Nebraska - n/a
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Composite Computer Rankings (last week in parenthesis) - 31 computers
- Gonzaga (1)
- Arizona (2)
- Baylor (5)
- Kansas (3)
- Kentucky (4)
- Duke (8)
- Auburn (6)
- PURDUE (7)
- Houston (12)
- Tennessee (13)
- Texas Tech (11)
- Villanova (9)
- UCLA (10)
- Arkansas (16)
- ILLINOIS (14)
- Connecticut (15)
- Texas (17)
- WISCONSIN (18)
- Alabama (19)
- Saint Mary's (22)
- Providence (-)
- IOWA (23)
- OHIO STATE (20)
- LSU (21)
- USC (24)
- 27. Michigan State (25)
- 34. Michigan (31)
- 39. Indiana (40)
- 65. Rutgers (64)
- 80. Maryland (87)
- 89. Northwestern (82)
- 92. Penn State (77)
- 98. Minnesota (97)
- 174. Nebraska (188)
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Late to the party, as usual, but I was at the Wisconsin/Michigan game a week ago (my not close to annual visit to Mad-town) and have spent way too much idle time thinking about it since then.
My take:
(1) On the one hand, it seems like a lot to fire a guy over an outburst of that sort, there's no question that if I did that in my work place, I would be escorted out, forever. Similarly, if I were to do something like that in a handshake line for one of the youth sports teams that I coach, I would never be allowed back. In the *real* world, that's a firing offense.
(2) In the world of professional sports (and we'll just slide B1G MBB and FB into that category without thinking too deeply on it), it's not a firing offense unless there's more going on. At least not the first time. Strange, especially since presumably they are setting the standard for what sports competitions are supposed to look like.
(3) I agree that Gard didn't need to do what he did in the line, but having seen and been in a lot of handshake lines over the years, it's pretty common for someone to want to explain themselves when someone calls them out for something. It's probably not often a good idea, but it's a common response. But it wasn't the *discussion* that led to punches being thrown--it was Howard doing however you want to describe what he did to Krabbenhoft.
(4) I'm fascinated by the efforts to cast blame on the Wisconsin coaching staff, including Krabbenhoft. Once Howard grabbed Gard and the *conversation* escalated (quickly), people from both sides dived in to try to separate them, Krabbenhoft among them. For all the smoke about, "he must have said something," no one--not Howard, not a Michigan assistant, not a Michigan player, not a reporter--nobody has said boo about what Krabbenhoft said. If it were even a little more inflammatory than some version of "break it up," someone would have mentioned it. I think it's clutching at straws for people hoping to generate conflict, generate revenue, clicks, likes, whatever, or defend the honor of the Maize and Blue, but struggling to find ways to do it.
(5) As a student of his era, it was really cool to see Michael Finley's number retired during that game. Finley was part of the core that transformed Wisconsin basketball, giving we alumni a reason to hope that we could aspire to more than making the tournament every few decades. I am surprised it took as long as it did to recognize him as such. I won't forget watching him live--he was incredible. If he had played for teams like the one that Kaminsky played for, his name would have been in the rafters much earlier.
Which brings me to where we are on February 28, with the Badgers likely to end up with at least a share of the B1G regular season title. Pinch me. The sustained success of this program is remarkable, and I'm thrilled that my first trip to Wisconsin in a long time coincided with one of the more comfortable wins, over a marquis opponent, during this wild season.
On Wisconsin.
:-)
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Late to the party, as usual, but I was at the Wisconsin/Michigan game a week ago (my not close to annual visit to Mad-town) and have spent way too much idle time thinking about it since then.
My take:
(1) On the one hand, it seems like a lot to fire a guy over an outburst of that sort, there's no question that if I did that in my work place, I would be escorted out, forever. Similarly, if I were to do something like that in a handshake line for one of the youth sports teams that I coach, I would never be allowed back. In the *real* world, that's a firing offense.
(2) In the world of professional sports (and we'll just slide B1G MBB and FB into that category without thinking too deeply on it), it's not a firing offense unless there's more going on. At least not the first time. Strange, especially since presumably they are setting the standard for what sports competitions are supposed to look like.
(3) I agree that Gard didn't need to do what he did in the line, but having seen and been in a lot of handshake lines over the years, it's pretty common for someone to want to explain themselves when someone calls them out for something. It's probably not often a good idea, but it's a common response. But it wasn't the *discussion* that led to punches being thrown--it was Howard doing however you want to describe what he did to Krabbenhoft.
(4) I'm fascinated by the efforts to cast blame on the Wisconsin coaching staff, including Krabbenhoft. Once Howard grabbed Gard and the *conversation* escalated (quickly), people from both sides dived in to try to separate them, Krabbenhoft among them. For all the smoke about, "he must have said something," no one--not Howard, not a Michigan assistant, not a Michigan player, not a reporter--nobody has said boo about what Krabbenhoft said. If it were even a little more inflammatory than some version of "break it up," someone would have mentioned it. I think it's clutching at straws for people hoping to generate conflict, generate revenue, clicks, likes, whatever, or defend the honor of the Maize and Blue, but struggling to find ways to do it.
(5) As a student of his era, it was really cool to see Michael Finley's number retired during that game. Finley was part of the core that transformed Wisconsin basketball, giving we alumni a reason to hope that we could aspire to more than making the tournament every few decades. I am surprised it took as long as it did to recognize him as such. I won't forget watching him live--he was incredible. If he had played for teams like the one that Kaminsky played for, his name would have been in the rafters much earlier.
Which brings me to where we are on February 28, with the Badgers likely to end up with at least a share of the B1G regular season title. Pinch me. The sustained success of this program is remarkable, and I'm thrilled that my first trip to Wisconsin in a long time coincided with one of the more comfortable wins, over a marquis opponent, during this wild season.
On Wisconsin.
:-)
(https://i.imgur.com/qC6v6jD.png)
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Excellent post, SF.
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(https://i.imgur.com/btQCXVS.png)
Updated remaining season.
As an Ohio State fan I'm obviously interested in tonight's tOSU/UNL game and I do think that the Cornhuskers have a little bit of a shot. The Buckeyes have been weird lately. Vis-a-vis the tiers the Buckeyes have four upsets, two up and two down but the odd thing is that all four have come in the last three weeks. Prior to that the Buckeyes were remarkably consistent as the B1G's only team with no upsets. Now all of a sudden, four of the last six tOSU games have resulted in upsets. Those last six:
- Great win on the road at Michigan, positive upset.
- Home win over Minnesota as expected.
- Home loss to Iowa, negative upset.
- Home win over Indiana as expected.
- Great win on the road at Illinois, positive upset.
- Road loss to Maryland, negative upset.
So now I don't know what to expect from game to game.
The Purdue/Wisconsin game is THE game for the conference title race. A Wisconsin win:
- Mathematically clinches a share of the title for the Badgers and eliminates the Boilermakers, and
- Practically clinches an outright title for the Badgers and eliminates the Illini as well (because UW's last game is at home against the last place Cornhuskers).
A Purdue win:
- Keeps Purdue alive in the league title race, and
- Keeps Illinois alive in the league title race.
- Guarantees that the B1G Champion will have at least five losses.
For comparison on that last point:
- 2021's Champion had 3 losses and two teams had 4 or less.
- 2020's Champion had 6 losses (three way tie)
- 2019's Champion had 4 losses (two way tie)
- 2018's Champion had 2 losses and three teams had 3 or less (on 18 games)
- 2017's Champion had 4 losses
- 2016's Champion had 3 losses
- 2015's Champion had 2 losses and two teams had 4 or less
- 2014's Champion had 3 losses
- 2013's Champion had 4 losses
- 2012's Champion had 5 losses (three-way tie)
Having a Champion with 5+ losses is not unheard of but it is rare and was definitely very rare before the increase to 20 league games.
In the event of a Purdue win we would project a three-way tie for the league title between Purdue, Wisconsin, and Illinois. Purdue would win the tiebreaker at 3-1 (swept IL, split with UW) while Wisconsin and Illinois would each be 1-2 (Wisconsin split with PU, lost to IL; Illinois beat UW but got swept by PU). Thus, the 2/3 seed would be determined as between the Illini and Badgers based on record against the next best team(s). Right now we project that to be Ohio State and UW would win that based on a split with the Buckeyes while Illinois played tOSU only once and lost. That said, all of RU, IA, MSU, M, and IU have at least a mathematical chance to catch the Buckeyes.
The other game, Michigan State at Michigan is suddenly VERY interesting. A few weeks ago the Spartans were well ahead of their instate rivals but the Spartans have faded and the Wolverines have surged. Now the Spartans are only one game ahead of the Wolverines in the standings and they are both projected to finish 11-9 in a four-way tie for 5th/6th/7th/8th along with the Scarlet Knights and Hawkeyes. If Michigan State can score a win in Ann Arbor that will change the projections significantly for both teams. MSU's projection would improve to 12-8 and alone in 5th place while Michigan's would drop to 10-10 and tied with Indiana for 8th/9th.
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Lunardi's latest has nine B1G teams in the tournament but Michigan is getting the last bye while Rutgers and Indiana both have to win play-in games to make the 64 team field.
The teams are:
- #2 Purdue
- #3 Wisconsin
- #4 Illinois
- #6 Ohio State
- #7 Iowa, Michigan State
- #11 Michigan, Indiana (play-in)
- #12 Rutgers (play-in)
Based on past results by teams with those seeds, they should result in:
- 5.14 teams in the R32
- 2.63 teams in the S16
- 1.20 teams in the E8
- 0.52 teams in the F4
- 0.21 teams in the NC
- 0.09 NC's
I feel like most of our conference is more up-and-down than usual. Looking at those teams:
- Purdue: When they are ON, they are a potential NC. When they are off, they are not good. They could go to the F4 or lose their opener.
- Wisconsin: They have a very good record but their slew of close wins I think has everyone questioning just how good they are.
- Illinois: Kofi is a monster but when teams figure out how to handle him, they don't seem to have any viable answers.
- Ohio State: On a good night they can do great things like beat Dook, win at Illinois, win at Michigan, and almost win at Purdue. On a bad night they can lose to Maryland, Florida (a middling SEC team), or Xavier (a middling BE team).
- Iowa: They have a solid record largely because they have avoided bad losses but their record in high-end games is not good. They are only 1-5 in Q1 games.
- Michigan State: I'll never count out an Izzo-coached team but this team looks like they are fading fast.
- Michigan: Their ceiling may be as high as Purdue's but they don't seem to be able to play anywhere close to it consistently.
- Indiana: They have a few good wins but still they are 3-6 in Q1 and 3-4 in Q2.
- Rutgers: They have five Q1 wins which is great but they have 3 Q3/4 losses which is terrible.
Honestly any of those teams could make the S16 or lose their opener.
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My wallet would appreciate OSU playing just a little bit of defense
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My wallet would appreciate OSU playing just a little bit of defense
Have pity. We are down 4 of our top 8 guys and have Justin Ahrens guarding Bryce Mcgowens.
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I don't think my rush judgment has ever been more wrong than about Chris Holtman's trajectory
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I don't think my rush judgment has ever been more wrong than about Chris Holtman's trajectory
Elaborate?
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Pretty sure Ohio State will be playing next Thursday.
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Pretty sure Ohio State will be playing next Thursday.
If they have any more injuries we might be able to get on the court
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Elaborate?
I thought he was going to dominate, the way that first year went. Instead it feels like a continuation of Matta. Not that it's bad, but he hasn't finished higher than 5th in the Big Ten, not has he gotten out of the first weekend. I said here he was going to make OSU the clear top program in the Big Ten. Instead, he hasn't matched what he did in Year 1 yet
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If they have any more injuries we might be able to get on the court
I mean 3 years ago MSU won a Big Ten title after two of their three best players went down, and two years ago, Wisconsin won one after their best player quit the team. The problem ain't injuries.
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Hunter Dickinson will blend right in once he's playing pro in Europe
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I mean 3 years ago MSU won a Big Ten title after two of their three best players went down, and two years ago, Wisconsin won one after their best player quit the team. The problem ain't injuries.
It isn't that the problem. There is no problem. OSU is in good shape despite the injuries. But you have to field a team - when you are depending on the bottom half of the roster you are going to be in rough shape in any game in the B1G.
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If they had lost to Purdue, sure. But they still had their two best players BY FAR, and lost to arguably the worst Big Ten team in years, at home.
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Why does Hummel call every Purdue game? He's very good otherwise, but Jesus he's a homer
And another one tonight
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If they had lost to Purdue, sure. But they still had their two best players BY FAR, and lost to arguably the worst Big Ten team in years, at home.
They were missing their second best player, and their fourth and fifth and eighth best player. That ain't going to cut it.
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Big win in AA. Also great to see Izzo have a little meltdown.
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Big win in AA. Also great to see Izzo have a little meltdown.
He saw a player act in a manner he hadn't seen in 20+ years, and yet managed not to punch anyone. I was also pleased with what I saw from him
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They were missing their second best player, and their fourth and fifth and eighth best player. That ain't going to cut it.
I thought they had both Liddell and Branham. Their only two double digit scorers. And with both of them, and Wheeler, they had the three guys that lead the team in minutes played. And were playing the last place team at home. Injuries ain't the story here. There's a reason they were still favored by 15.5
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He saw a player act in a manner he hadn't seen in 20+ years, and yet managed not to punch anyone. I was also pleased with what I saw from him
Yeah, players having career nights against a rival never get fired up.
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Izzo has seen plenty of guys have career nights. Hell, this year alone we've seen plenty of them. I've never seen a guy show his whole ass on a team that was a preseason top 5 team, gloating about maintaining a bubble status like Dickinson did tonight. It takes quite something to be such an ass that you get a reaction from a 2+ decade opposing coach. And even still, if his "meltdown" doesn't involve trying to fight others, and embarrassing my alma mater on an annual basis, I'll take it
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Dickinson is a douchebag.
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You want a team to be greater than the sum of its parts. With Purdue at this point, equal would be an improvement.
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It literally is as simple as PG play with MSU this year. When they play well, MSU is decent, when they don't, they aren't. I was concerned when Hoggard wasn't even on the bench in the 2nd half, but apparently it's non COVID flu, and he was in the locker room puking.
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Did he call bank?
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Is that the 4th team to court storm Purdue this year? Third weird one too
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Well, that settles it.
This Purdue team, with this roster, is a failure without a Final Four.
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Is Greg Gard the easiest COTY choice ever?
I think Davis may have wrapped up POTY too
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I thought he was going to dominate, the way that first year went. Instead it feels like a continuation of Matta. Not that it's bad, but he hasn't finished higher than 5th in the Big Ten, not has he gotten out of the first weekend. I said here he was going to make OSU the clear top program in the Big Ten. Instead, he hasn't matched what he did in Year 1 yet
He's super weird. He keeps fielding these pretty good teams that both feel like they are better than the sum of their parts, but also have enough dumb upsets where you think they're underachieving. It's quite a feat.
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Is Greg Gard the easiest COTY choice ever?
I think Davis may have wrapped up POTY too
Big Ten or National?
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I love this Wisconsin team. Mostly because I don't totally expect them to do any of these things, and I don't expect it to continue and it just keeps doing so.
They have no bench star power, just five starters who are all in their zone. Three are gonna be back next year. No idea how BTT or the dance go, but they hang that banner with what turned over and what didn't come together, just right the hell up there.
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I thought they had both Liddell and Branham. Their only two double digit scorers. And with both of them, and Wheeler, they had the three guys that lead the team in minutes played. And were playing the last place team at home. Injuries ain't the story here. There's a reason they were still favored by 15.5
One if those guys is a true freshman and the other was on PSU last year and couldn't score. C'mon, obviously injuries are a story here. They are down FOUR guys in the front court.
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One if those guys is a true freshman and the other was on PSU last year and couldn't score. C'mon, obviously injuries are a story here. They are down FOUR guys in the front court.
Injuries are a factor, but we are talking about a home loss to a team that might be the worst team in B1G BB history.
The story is that, whatever the reason/excuse this is what we get EVERY year from Holtman:
- A finish outside the top-4 in the B1G
- Not a serious contender for the B1G title
- Tournament performances that leave us jealous of Purdue.
The exception is his first year, with Matta's guys.
As an Ohio State fan I feel that Holtman is basically the worst-case-scenario coach because he isn't good enough but at the same time he isn't bad enough to fire so we are never going to improve.
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Is that the 4th team to court storm Purdue this year? Third weird one too
They didn't storm for beating Purdue.
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Injuries are a factor, but we are talking about a home loss to a team that might be the worst team in B1G BB history.
The story is that, whatever the reason/excuse this is what we get EVERY year from Holtman:
- A finish outside the top-4 in the B1G
- Not a serious contender for the B1G title
- Tournament performances that leave us jealous of Purdue.
The exception is his first year, with Matta's guys.
As an Ohio State fan I feel that Holtman is basically the worst-case-scenario coach because he isn't good enough but at the same time he isn't bad enough to fire so we are never going to improve.
Worth noting that Scott Drew had one winning season in his first five years. I totally disagree, btw - I think two many Buckeye fans treat basketball like football, where they just expect to get the best guys and dominate and that's that. That ain't basketball. Look at where Izzo is this year. Or Michigan. The B1G is a meat grinder and close to a random number generator. Wisconsin is 24th on KenPom and OSU is 26th - that's the difference this year.
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Five of Purdue's six losses have been by one possession.
Nearly all, if not all, have come down to the opponent hitting a last second shot to take the lead.
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Worth noting that Scott Drew had one winning season in his first five years.
Scott Drew also took over a school that was coming off a murder of one player by another, covered up by the coach; that even in the best of times, had only made the tournament one time in the prior 53 years, and hadn't won an NCAA Tournament game since 1950.
Like I said, I think he's a good coach, he just hasn't lived up to the lofty standards I set. After that first year, I said I thought he was going to OSU back to peak Matta very soon, and for as long as he wanted
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Big Ten or National?
I don't have a lot to back this up it's just based on my feel watching the games, I think Davis will be at a minimum B10 POY, probably also nationally, but I wonder if his draft stock is sliding.
Games like Rutgers and some of these late season games where teams are rolling more pressure to him he's really having to grind out his stats. I'm not convinced he will be able to get his own shot in the league and he may be a late lottery pick instead of an early one.
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I love this Wisconsin team. Mostly because I don't totally expect them to do any of these things, and I don't expect it to continue and it just keeps doing so.
They have no bench star power, just five starters who are all in their zone. Three are gonna be back next year. No idea how BTT or the dance go, but they hang that banner with what turned over and what didn't come together, just right the hell up there.
Agreed, I don't really have great post-season expectations, but that's part of the fun with this team, just enjoy the good times.
I also don't miss any UW games (obviously) or Providence games b/c I know I'm getting a great game with some last minute fun.
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Five of Purdue's six losses have been by one possession.
Nearly all, if not all, have come down to the opponent hitting a last second shot to take the lead.
As we discussed last week, you do not want to get caught in a close game against Wisconsin. I'm rooting for a Wisconsin-Providence Sweet 16 OT game, because those have to be the two fan bases that would just be ultimately comfortable in that scenario
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I don't have a lot to back this up it's just based on my feel watching the games, I think Davis will be at a minimum B10 POY, probably also nationally, but I wonder if his draft stock is sliding.
Games like Rutgers and some of these late season games where teams are rolling more pressure to him he's really having to grind out his stats. I'm not convinced he will be able to get his own shot in the league and he may be a late lottery pick instead of an early one.
I think Tsheiebwe is a near lock for national
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Scott Drew also took over a school that was coming off a murder of one player by another, covered up by the coach; that even in the best of times, had only made the tournament one time in the prior 53 years, and hadn't won an NCAA Tournament game since 1950.
Like I said, I think he's a good coach, he just hasn't lived up to the lofty standards I set. After that first year, I said I thought he was going to OSU back to peak Matta very soon, and for as long as he wanted
Doesn't help that they cancelled the tourney when he had his best team
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Worth noting that Scott Drew had one winning season in his first five years. I totally disagree, btw - I think two many Buckeye fans treat basketball like football, where they just expect to get the best guys and dominate and that's that. That ain't basketball. Look at where Izzo is this year. Or Michigan. The B1G is a meat grinder and close to a random number generator. Wisconsin is 24th on KenPom and OSU is 26th - that's the difference this year.
First let me say that I'm not in the category as you described that thinks tOSU should get the best guys and dominate. Ohio State doesn't have nearly the long-term history in BB that the Buckeyes have in Football so I don't expect to be a NC contender every year (my expectations aren't QUITE that high even in FB).
That said, Ohio State has a pretty good BB history. Within the B1G the Buckeyes are:
- #3 in league titles with 20 behind PU with 24 and IU with 22. We are about to drop into a tie with UW for 3rd as they are winning it this year and we aren't.
- #5 in NCAA appearances with 30.
- Tied for 4th/5th in S16 appearances with 14. Tied with UMD, behind IU (22), MSU (20), M (16).
- Tied with MSU for most F4's with 10. IU is next with 8.
- Tied for 3rd/4th/5th/6th in NC's with 1. Tied with M, UW, and UMD behind IU (5) and MSU (2).
Looking at those categories the Buckeyes average rank in the B1G is 3.7 and that is roughly what I expect. I expect the Buckeyes to be maybe not the best program in the B1G but not too far off from it. That isn't what we are getting.
Holtmann's first year was great. He took players that Matta frankly wasn't getting much out of and finished one game out of first place in the B1G. The team underperformed in the BTT with a loss in their opener as the #2 seed against #7 but no big deal. Then in the NCAA the team performed to seed with a win in a 5/12 game as a #5 seed then a loss to #4. Ok, looks good. Then:
- Tied for 8th/9th in the B1G, 8 games out of first. 1-1 in BTT, 1-1 in NCAA (Upset win as #11 then loss to #3).
- Tied for 5th/6th/7th/8th in B1G, 3 games out of first. No BTT or NCAA due to COVID.
- Fifth in the B1G, 3.5 games out of first. 3-1 in BTT, 0-1 in NCAA with an embarrassing loss as a #2 seed to #15.
- Currently tied for 4th/5th in the B1G, 3.5 games out of first.
Let me put this another way:
According to this article (https://fanbuzz.com/college-basketball/highest-paid-college-basketball-coaches/), Holtmann is the 24th highest paid coach in the nation at just under $3 Million/year. Tom Izzo is #6 at just under $4 Million/year.
If I were tOSU's AD I'd be perfectly happy to pay $4 Million (or more) for a NC level coach but I would NOT be happy paying $3 Million/year for a coach who has finished w/in <3 games of the league title once in five years and has NEVER gotten to the second weekend in the NCAA tournament. That just isn't good enough and at this point tOSU would be better off rolling the dice on a new coach. If the new coach is better great. If not, fire him and try again. Holtmann is not good enough and he is not showing discernable improvement.
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If I were tOSU's AD I'd be perfectly happy to pay $4 Million (or more) for a NC level coach but I would NOT be happy paying $3 Million/year for a coach who has finished w/in <3 games of the league title once in five years and has NEVER gotten to the second weekend in the NCAA tournament. That just isn't good enough and at this point tOSU would be better off rolling the dice on a new coach. If the new coach is better great. If not, fire him and try again. Holtmann is not good enough and he is not showing discernable improvement.
This is where I disagree. His KenPom seasons are:
2018: 16th
2019: 44
2020: 8
2021: 11
2022: 26 currently
You are basically wanting to dump a coach who has fielded a top 16 team in three of his five seasons, and the ones that weren't either had huge attrition in 2019 or a ton of injuries which is this year. I think getting rid of a coach like that would be bonkers.
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Look at where Izzo is this year.
I want to address this more directly:
Ok, but lets not just look at one year. As I said above, I don't expect to be a NC contender EVERY year. Here is what Izzo has done in the time that Holtmann has been in Columbus:
- 2018: When tOSU finished one game out of first, MSU WAS first.
- 2019: When tOSU finished EIGHT games out of first, MSU WAS first.
- 2020: When tOSU finished three games out of first, MSU WAS first.
- 2021: MSU finished three games behind tOSU (6.5 out of first).
- 2022: MSU is currently one game behind tOSU (4.5 out of first).
I get having a rough season or two now and then but MSU has still won three league titles in the last five years. Ohio State hasn't won one since 2012 and if you go back far enough to capture three for the Buckeyes you are at 2010-present during which time MSU has won five.
No league titles in five years.
Only finished within <2 games of league title once in five years and that was in year #1 with previous coach's recruits.
No trips to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
No discernable improvement.
I'm ready to give someone else a shot.
Or Michigan.
Same deal here. Sure, Michigan isn't good this year but they won the league title last year. They also made the NCAA CG in Holtmann's first year, the S16 in 2019, and the E8 last year. Holtmann's next S16 will be his first with the Buckeyes and his next E8 will be his first.
So sure, Michigan looks worse than tOSU this year (and I'm not sure how I'd feel about Howard's performance if I were a M fan) but they have done a LOT more in the last five years than tOSU has. It isn't close.
Wisconsin is 24th on KenPom and OSU is 26th - that's the difference this year.
I'm kinda with you on this. I think a lot of us suspect that UW is maybe just lucky. The computers have them right about at Ohio State's level but here they are, 3.5 games ahead of the Buckeyes in the standings. I'll go back to a longer term view. When is tOSU going to have a "lucky" year and win a league title? How long are you willing to wait?
2022 is Wisconsin's second B1G title since Holtmann has been in Columbus. Ohio State has the resources and brand to be as good as Wisconsin. We aren't and that is a problem.
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This is where I disagree. His KenPom seasons are:
2018: 16th
2019: 44
2020: 8
2021: 11
2022: 26 currently
You are basically wanting to dump a coach who has fielded a top 16 team in three of his five seasons, and the ones that weren't either had huge attrition in 2019 or a ton of injuries which is this year. I think getting rid of a coach like that would be bonkers.
As a fan, yes. If I were AD, not really.
If I were AD I'd look at this and say "Ok, Holtmann is on a short leash." I wouldn't extend him or give him any raises and if someone else made him an offer and he came to me to see if I'd match it, I'd wish him good luck at his new school.
I said way upthread that from this fan's perspective Holtmann is almost the worst case scenario of a coach because he is in between. He isn't what I want/expect but he really isn't bad enough to fire either. So we are just stuck here figuring on finishing 3-5 games out of the league title every year and maybe if we give him enough attempts he'll actually win a R32 game so we can lose in the S16 instead of the first weekend of the NCAA some year.
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2022 is Wisconsin's second B1G title since Holtmann has been in Columbus. Ohio State has the resources and brand to be as good as Wisconsin. We aren't and that is a problem.
Yeah, but mess around with a good thing and there isn't that much difference between us and Penn State, where we are constantly mediocre. Holtmann recruits well, the players develop well, and the team performs well. That's the boxes I look at, not the random number generator that the B1G and the tourney are. Putting excessive stock in that is a recipe for failure.
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Yeah, but mess around with a good thing and there isn't that much difference between us and Penn State, where we are constantly mediocre. Holtmann recruits well, the players develop well, and the team performs well. That's the boxes I look at, not the random number generator that the B1G and the tourney are. Putting excessive stock in that is a recipe for failure.
This is where I fundamentally disagree. There is a HUMONGOUS difference between us and Penn State:
- PSU has NEVER won a league title, we have 20 (five since PSU joined).
- PSU has nine NCAA appearances all time, we have 30.
- PSU has four S16's all time, we have 14.
- PSU has one F4 all time, we have 10.
- PSU has zero NC's, we have one.
Ohio State's baseline is VASTLY better than PSU's. Holtmann is performing only slightly below tOSU's baseline but he IS below tOSU's baseline. If I were PSU's AD and had a coach performing at Holtmann's level I'd be ecstatic. If I were tOSU's AD and had a coach performing at Holtmann's level I'd be looking for an exit strategy.
Ohio State has 20 league titles in roughly 100 years of league play so about one every five years. This is Holtmann's fifth year and he doesn't have one which means we are falling behind our baseline.
I get where you are coming from when you refer to the B1G and the tourney as "random number generators" and I agree on a one year basis. Looking at any given year I agree. Maybe UW isn't any better than tOSU this year and they are just lucky. Maybe tOSU's loss to #15 in last years' NCAA was just unlucky. There I agree. However, when you look at it over three, four, or five years that "random number generator" need to be spitting out acceptable results.
Losing as a #2 seed to #15 would be fine if we also had some nice upsets to offset it but we don't. Our only Tourney upset win was as #11 over #6.
Finishing 3-5 games out of first place in the B1G this year despite being (per KenPom) basically as good as the Champion would be fine if it were balanced off by winning the league when we maybe were not the best team but it isn't. We haven't won the league since 2012 (when current seniors were 10 years old).
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Loving working from home with nearly every conference tourney game being available somewhere.
Nothing like some morning NC A&T-Radford elimination hoops
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Loving working from home with nearly every conference tourney game being available somewhere.
Nothing like some morning NC A&T-Radford elimination hoops
How are you watching those?
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Wisconsin is a state--a culture--with a chip on its shoulder. It's the underdog in the Midwest, behind Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio. It's not as big, as wealthy, etc. That's built into its sports culture. The UW athletic department is actually a pretty good encapsulation of it--while the state is sports mad, it's also comfortable in its role as an underdog. Sure, they want to win championships, but they also love their identity as a scrappy bunch (and they haven't succeeded when they've tried to make it as blue-chippers).
Ohio is not the underdog. Neither is Michigan. (We'll leave Chicago--I mean Illinois--out of this for now). The cultural identity of those states and the flagship state universities is to be the big kid on the block. Period. So yeah, Wisconsin might make a run in the tournament because it is really good at winning close games, or it might lose early because it doesn't really have the talent that the highest tier teams seems to. And we Badgers will be annoyed if we don't make the Sweet 16, but not overly surprised, and we'll still love this scrappy, picked-to-finish-10th team. And who knows--maybe these Badgers will win those close games and head deep into the tournament--at this point, should that really surprise anyone?
And the Ohio State and Michigan fans will continue to be frustrated every time Wisconsin finishes higher because that's not the natural order of things (if you're from Ohio/Ohio State or Michigan/Big Blue). So a coach who consistently has top-20 finishes won't be good enough, if Wisconsin is still winning conference titles, and UM/OSU isn't.
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UW's chances in the tourney relate heavily on how the games are officiated. It teams are allowed to mug Johnny Davis like they have in the past month or so, UW will probably not go very far.
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How are you watching those?
ESPN+ for the Big South
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ESPN+ for the Big South
I have Hulu Live and Disney Plus and they sent me an email saying that I would have access to ESPN+, but every time I have tried to get it to work it doesn't.
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As we discussed last week, you do not want to get caught in a close game against Wisconsin. I'm rooting for a Wisconsin-Providence Sweet 16 OT game, because those have to be the two fan bases that would just be ultimately comfortable in that scenario
On the one hand, I don’t want that rematch. On the other, I think UW wins.
That was the Badgers’ first loss. Johnny Davis was hurt. They fell behind by a bunch. Davison led them back. A lot of the young guys looked super wet behind the ears.
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UW's chances in the tourney relate heavily on how the games are officiated. It teams are allowed to mug Johnny Davis like they have in the past month or so, UW will probably not go very far.
Same with Purdue and Jaden Ivey. Seems that B1G refs don't much like him barreling down the lane to the rim looking for a foul, so you have to make it obvious to get called for one on him. Usually the NCAAT is called more guard-friendly and not allowing as physical of a game though.
For Purdue the opposite can be true for the bigs... To an extent the B1G lets the big men bang in the paint, but I think the NCAAT likewise calls the bigs a little more tightly. This always hurts guys like Isaac Haas and Zach Edey who I think sometimes get penalized simply for being huge.
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I have Hulu Live and Disney Plus and they sent me an email saying that I would have access to ESPN+, but every time I have tried to get it to work it doesn't.
Are you trying to watch ESPN+ through the Hulu app or the ESPN app? I had some issues with the ESPN app, but it lets me watch ESPN+ content through the Hulu app.
I had to officially link my ESPN account on the app through the settings menu to get access to ESPN+ content through the app.
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I have Hulu Live and Disney Plus and they sent me an email saying that I would have access to ESPN+, but every time I have tried to get it to work it doesn't.
Bundle them. That's the only reason why we have it. Basically the bundle price is the same as paying for any two individually
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For Purdue the opposite can be true for the bigs... To an extent the B1G lets the big men bang in the paint, but I think the NCAAT likewise calls the bigs a little more tightly. This always hurts guys like Isaac Haas and Zach Edey who I think sometimes get penalized simply for being huge.
Again, no conference affiliation for refs in basketball.
But as for reffing bigs, I think they get the Shaq treatment. Every touch could possibly be a foul both ways, so if they called it, after their first 10 touches, they would have racked up 5 fouls against the opponent, but have fouled themselves out. So they just let it all slide
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Yeah, but mess around with a good thing and there isn't that much difference between us and Penn State, where we are constantly mediocre. Holtmann recruits well, the players develop well, and the team performs well. That's the boxes I look at, not the random number generator that the B1G and the tourney are. Putting excessive stock in that is a recipe for failure.
Oh I definitely don't think he should even be on the hot seat, let alone fired. I just, after that first season, had insanely high expectations, and he hasn't meant them. As I said in the first post, all he hasn't done is live up to what I thought. I thought that first season would be his worst, and they finished 4th, nearly winning the title.
Turns out that's the closest he's been to winning one.
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Bundle them. That's the only reason why we have it. Basically the bundle price is the same as paying for any two individually
Hulu Live TV is now only available only with ESPN+ and Disney+ bundled in.
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I was just thinking about Alando Tucker and how badly he torpedoed last year's team. Unreal what one asshole can do.
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Wisconsin is a state--a culture--with a chip on its shoulder. It's the underdog in the Midwest, behind Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio. It's not as big, as wealthy, etc. That's built into its sports culture. The UW athletic department is actually a pretty good encapsulation of it--while the state is sports mad, it's also comfortable in its role as an underdog. Sure, they want to win championships, but they also love their identity as a scrappy bunch (and they haven't succeeded when they've tried to make it as blue-chippers).
Ohio is not the underdog. Neither is Michigan. (We'll leave Chicago--I mean Illinois--out of this for now). The cultural identity of those states and the flagship state universities is to be the big kid on the block. Period. So yeah, Wisconsin might make a run in the tournament because it is really good at winning close games, or it might lose early because it doesn't really have the talent that the highest tier teams seems to. And we Badgers will be annoyed if we don't make the Sweet 16, but not overly surprised, and we'll still love this scrappy, picked-to-finish-10th team. And who knows--maybe these Badgers will win those close games and head deep into the tournament--at this point, should that really surprise anyone?
And the Ohio State and Michigan fans will continue to be frustrated every time Wisconsin finishes higher because that's not the natural order of things (if you're from Ohio/Ohio State or Michigan/Big Blue). So a coach who consistently has top-20 finishes won't be good enough, if Wisconsin is still winning conference titles, and UM/OSU isn't.
To the extent that this is an answer to my running debate with @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) , I'm not quite that arrogant wrt BB. Yes, in FB I am a fan who will "continue to be frustrated every time Wisconsin finishes higher because that is not the natural order of things." That isn't a dig at Wisconsin, I feel that way wrt all the other programs including Michigan because I view my school as second to none in football. In FB I EXPECT my school to win the league title around half the time and be right in the thick of the race most of the other half. This is altered a little with the advent of the CG but not much.
In BB I don't "expect" to be better than Wisconsin per se. What I expect is to be at Ohio State's long-term baseline which is to win the league title roughly every five years, go to the Tourney a lot more years than not, and make a run in the Tourney every few years. I'd love to see my school as the best BB program in the league but I don't expect it. What I do expect is to be one of the best in the league and right now I don't think we are. Right now I'd rank the BB programs in the B1G as something like:
- MSU
- UW
- PU (#2 is really close between PU/UW)
- M
- IU
- UMD
Ohio State is at best #7. That isn't good enough from my perspective but I'll concede that Max has a point in that it isn't bad. The BB program is pretty good and could be worse but I feel that they are behind their long-term baseline which is why Wisconsin just caught tOSU in league titles at 20. Note also that when tOSU won their most recent BB title in 2012, Wisconsin had 17. In the 10 seasons since UW has three and Ohio State has none.
I don't feel that tOSU is underperforming because UW won the title and tOSU didn't THIS YEAR. I feel that tOSU is underperforming because in the last ten years UW has three titles and tOSU has none. League titles since 2012:
- 3 Wisconsin, Michigan State
- 2 Indiana, Michigan, Purdue
- 1 Maryland
This league started doing BB in 1906 but Ohio State didn't join for a few years after that. The Buckeyes won their first league title in 1925 which was 12 years after joining. The gaps between titles have been:
- 19 years, 1972-1990
- 13 years, 1993-2005
- 12 years, 1913-1924
- 10 years, 2013-2022
- 9 years, 1951-1959
- 7 years, 1926-1932
- 5 years, 1934-1938, 1940-1944
- 3 years, 1947-1949, 1965-1967
- 2 years, 1969-1970, 2008-2009
- 1 year, 1945
Ohio State's current title drought is their fourth longest ever. One of the longer ones was their first 12 years in the league so I kinda discount that. The other two took up most of the time from 1972-2005 which was just a generally dark time in Ohio State BB.
This drought is getting bad and I don't see any end in sight. I don't see discernable improvement.
To his defense, Holtmann obviously is NOT responsible for all of the current drought. It started while he was coaching at Gardner-Webb and continued while he was coaching Butler. That said, five of these ten years are on his watch. That needs to end.
I agree with Max that there is a certain amount of randomness (luck) involved in winning a league title in any particular year but my view is that the randomness/luck balances out over time. If you field a league title caliber team THIS year you might not win the title THIS year but if you consistently field league title caliber teams, you will eventually win some titles. If I were tOSU's AD, I would need to see those titles and soon.
I'll concede in advance that I AM cherry-picking years. Ohio State won three-straight titles from 2010-2012 and five of seven from 2006-2012 but I'm not purely cherry-picking, I'm talking about the current ten years. If you go back to 2006, Ohio State looks fine. League titles since 2006:
- 6 Michigan State
- 5 Ohio State
- 4 Wisconsin
- 3 Purdue, Michigan
- 2 Indiana
- 1 Maryland
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I would put OSU comfortably ahead of Maryland and Indiana
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On @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) 's "randomness":
If you look at the 2017-2018 season when tOSU finished one game out of first:
- The Buckeyes lost to PSU at home by one possession
- The Spartans beat Rutgers at home in OT
- The Spartans beat IU on the road by one possession
- The Spartans beat Iowa on the road by one possession
- The Spartans beat Purdue at home by one possession
If any one of those five games had gone the other way the Buckeyes would have tied the Spartans for the league title (and won the tie based on winning the only H2H game).
That is the luck/randomness involved in CBB specifically and sports generally.
However, in the four seasons since the Buckeyes have finished:
- 8 games out of first in 2019
- 3.5 games out of first in 2021
- At least 3 games out of first in 2022
- 3 games out of first in 2020
That isn't, IMHO, within the margin of "luck/randomness". That is just not being good enough.
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I would put OSU comfortably ahead of Maryland and Indiana
Curious, do you agree with my list otherwise:
Right now I'd rank the BB programs in the B1G as something like:
- MSU
- UW
- PU (#2 is really close between PU/UW)
- M
- IU
- UMD
So are saying that your list would be:
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I think the top 5 are all evenish. They could vary somewhat year to year, but I wouldn't put any one of them above the other confidently. And I certainly wouldn't put IU or Maryland close to them.
And Fran has finished between 3rd and 6th in the Big Ten in 9 of the past 10 years, so it's hard for me to just say they are 8th. Indiana has only finished higher than 6th once in the past 9 years.
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I think the top 5 are all evenish. They could vary somewhat year to year, but I wouldn't put any one of them above the other confidently. And I certainly wouldn't put IU or Maryland close to them.
And Fran has finished between 3rd and 6th in the Big Ten in 9 of the past 10 years, so it's hard for me to just say they are 8th. Indiana has only finished higher than 6th once in the past 9 years.
I think you are either sandbagging or being overly modest here. Michigan State is in the midst of a rare second consecutive off year but even that has them as a tournament team. They also won three straight league titles right before these last two years. IMHO, MSU is a clear and obvious #1.
After that I think UW/PU is debatable for #2/3.
I think you make a good point about Iowa and I should have included them so after UW/PU I think your next tier is M, tOSU, IU, UMD, and Iowa. There are arguments for or against each of those but I think that is the next group.
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Looks like Indiana is missing another tourney
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Looks like Indiana is missing another tourney
You could have won a lot of bets by betting six weeks ago that Rutgers would end up better off for the tournament than Indiana.
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Outright championships in the past 20 seasons:
3: Ohio State and Wisconsin
2: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State
1: Purdue
Wisconsin will most likely have 4 soon.
Purdue and Wisconsin are not the same.
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I think you are either sandbagging or being overly modest here. Michigan State is in the midst of a rare second consecutive off year but even that has them as a tournament team. They also won three straight league titles right before these last two years. IMHO, MSU is a clear and obvious #1.
After that I think UW/PU is debatable for #2/3.
I think you make a good point about Iowa and I should have included them so after UW/PU I think your next tier is M, tOSU, IU, UMD, and Iowa. There are arguments for or against each of those but I think that is the next group.
Izzo has had three separate crazy 3-4 season runs.
98-01: 4 straight Big Ten titles, 3 Final 4s, 2 BTT titles
09-12: 3 Big Ten titles in 4 years, 2 Final 4s, 1 BTT title
18-20: 3 straight Big Ten titles, 1 Final 4, (was the Vegas favorite to win the title in the COVID year), 1 BTT title (was the #1 seed in the COVID year)
The big thing is that each of those "lulls" included a Final 4 run, so you sort of forget they had a 7 year run without a Big Ten title, and a 5 year run. Granted the 2016 Big Ten title Indiana won was the most scheduled Big Ten title I've ever seen
But it's all been Izzo. Wisconsin is now on coach 3. Their program has proven able to weather transition. MSU's hasn't had to yet.
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Judd was also a very good coach, but Izzo took it to the next level.
Judd probably would not have survived this run in today's environment:
(https://i.imgur.com/Fgavdft.png)
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Rat face at it again.
(https://i.imgur.com/y3AEjIc.png)
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Rat face at it again.
(https://i.imgur.com/y3AEjIc.png)
As much as I hate Duke, Davis clarified that. Every team in the discussion for a #1 seed is asked what region they prefer. That's not the story, the story is that he picked one with a personal connection, rather than the one that would be closer.
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They should not be getting a 1 seed.
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They should not be getting a 1 seed.
I doubt they will, but they are in the discussion. I'd have them as a 2 right now
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If they do end up in the Midwest as a 1, they will no doubt play in Greenville.
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Honestly, I still find it difficult to figure out if Gard is the right coach for the program. Right now I think he is, but it's easy to feel that way when things are going well. I remember when he took over, I thought he rotated players too frequently, preventing them from getting into rhythm, and even pulling players who hadn't been on long and who were hot. But it got immediate results, and he rescued that season from Bo's retirement. And he's adjusted his approach to substitutions.
In year two of Gard, the Badgers were good, but not great, and it still felt a bit like the end of the Bo era. And the disappointing third year under Gard seemed to verify that--a poor performance once most of Bo's players were gone. Year four was an improvement, but not a big one--and a first-round exit in the tourney was disappointing--particularly when I took my son to that game.
But in year 5, they rebounded, despite low expectations, but there was also a lot of drama around that team, with Micah Potter's eligibility and Kobe King leaving mid-season. They tied for the conference title, but MSU was pretty clearly a better team. Then the tournament was cancelled just when things were starting to look pretty good.
Then last year was again pretty meh--basically finishing about where people thought a decent, but not especially good group of players should finish. And more drama--probably fairly placed primarily on Alando Tucker. What an odd thing.
So now we have this team exceeding expectations by more than a little. What to expect next season? The Badgers will lose their best player, and he won't be easily replaced, even if Chucky Hepburn becomes the star that I think he will be. And what about drama? There's been a fair amount of it under Gard. Is that just bad luck, or is that the way he rolls? And if so, maybe it doesn't matter if the teams flip back and forth between meeting expectations and exceeding them. But that feels a little like giving up, unless the expectations start higher.
But for this season, I'm just enjoying.
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I do think Gard is the right guy for the program.
As for next year, it will be interesting for sure. Davison will also be a HUGE loss for the team.
You have to wonder if Patrick Baldwin would be interested in coming to Madison, from Milwaukee, who just whacked his father.
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You have to wonder if Patrick Baldwin would be interested in coming to Madison, from Milwaukee, who just whacked his father.
He's going pro, and was terrible at Milwaukee this year. I wouldn't touch him
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He's been injured for most of the season. He's not ready for the NBA yet. Be lucky to go in round 2.
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From The Athletic mock draft, which projected him 17th.
Forgive me for being a broken record, but this is another pure wild card. Patrick Baldwin Jr. is all over the map when you talk to scouts. Some are willing to entirely overlook what has been an unmitigated disaster of a freshman season at Milwaukee and taking him around the end of the lottery. Others are not. Right now, Baldwin is averaging 12 points and six rebounds while shooting 34 percent from the field and 26 percent from 3 in the Horizon League. That is bad. But a lot of it can be chalked up to circumstance, if you want to make that case. He’s a non-shot creator who ends up having to do too much on offense far too regularly. He’d be much better off at a place like Duke where he could have shots created for him and could use those pristine shooting mechanics to hit open looks. Indeed, it’s not an exaggeration to say he has not gotten many clean opportunities this season. Per Synergy, Baldwin has taken just seven uncontested 3-pointers this season in 11 games, an impossibly low number that exemplifies how disastrous the team’s guards have been. The team has a bottom-20 offense in the country, a number that is bad for a mid-major team with a five-star, McDonald’s All-American forward who should theoretically be able to shoot the lights out. Scouts also have been unimpressed with his overall effort level. It’s not an exaggeration to say Baldwin would have one of the worst profiles in terms of production for competition level of any player selected in the first round in the last decade. But there are plenty of scouts who are still interested and see the same guy who was a consensus top-five recruit in the country. I’ll be completely honest: I have no idea what direction this will go.
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Look at the Milwaukee roster.
2021-22 Men's Basketball Roster - Milwaukee Athletics (mkepanthers.com) (https://mkepanthers.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster)
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I remember in college we debated how good LeBron could make Akron. Obviously this kid wasn't LeBron, but the Horizon is not the MAC either
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No Young, No Key, No Hope for the Buckeyes tonight
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That's the sandbagging spirit!
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That's the sandbagging spirit!
Doing what I can to will Joey Brunk into 20 and 10
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Doing what I can to will Joey Brunk into 20 and 10
No I get and respect it.
I'm pretty sure MSU has only played well in one road game in Big Ten play, when naturally they beat the conference champ convincingly
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Like I said. This team is straight trash on the road
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This is a pleasant surprise.
If the Buckeyes lose and Iowa wins tonight that would mathematically eliminate the Buckeyes from contention for a top-4 seed in the BTT.
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Doing what I can to will Joey Brunk into 20 and 10
Cue the Rudy clapping gif
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Cue the Rudy clapping gif
Clearly Holtmann was trying to save his secret weapon for the tourney
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Kind of feels like basketball is now just who shoots better from 3
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Big 33-32 run after falling behind by 11
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Kind of feels like basketball is now just who shoots better from 3
It really is - most sports reward working closer to the goal. Having a gimmick that rewards you for being far away from the goal leads to this.
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It really is - most sports reward working closer to the goal. Having a gimmick that rewards you for being far away from the goal leads to this.
And I'm not sure what the answer is. Moving the line back just leads to ugly basketball. I'm not opposed to the line, but guys are too good at it now for it to be worth 1.5 points, and it punishes good defense. Purdue made a great defensive play last game, and the ball bounced to Houser. He got a clean look, but from about 6 feet behind the line, and swished it. And it didn't feel like a prayer. Like if every QB could throw 70 yard ropes and football turned into teams trading deep shots, it would be awful. But we let it happen to basketball. Much like baseball, we've learned the best parts of the game are actually super inefficient. I love watching a guy run his man through 3 screens to get a clean 12 foot look. Not a thing anymore.
In college we used to take a shot every time MSU made a 3. Back then, 8 in a game was on the high end. Now? You would die
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South Alabama upset by bottom seeded Little Rock in the first round of the SBC tourney. They were a predictive metrics darling. KenPom picked them to win the SBC tourney from the #5 seed
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Also worth noting in the transfer portal era. MSU left two scholarships open. You can't tell me some halfway decent MAC senior wasn't worth a flier
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So now we have this team exceeding expectations by more than a little. What to expect next season? The Badgers will lose their best player, and he won't be easily replaced, even if Chucky Hepburn becomes the star that I think he will be. And what about drama? There's been a fair amount of it under Gard. Is that just bad luck, or is that the way he rolls? And if so, maybe it doesn't matter if the teams flip back and forth between meeting expectations and exceeding them. But that feels a little like giving up, unless the expectations start higher.
I don't totally know what it means to be the "right guy" for the program. He's the guy for the program right now. He's going to stop being the guy until he misses the tournament twice in a row. And looking at those expectations for next year, they should at least be solid. Hepburn will be a star. Crowl likely will be too. Wahl is a do-everything guy who is probably a top-10 defender and pure post guy in the conference. From that base, you should be tournament good, before considering any transfers.
Giving up? I'm not sure what's being given up. Wisconsin is a program without a birthright. In the natural equilibrium, Wisconsin is at the bottom of the middle of the pack, or lower. Geography, history, style, facts on the ground, this makes every success precious and each year a battle against the reality of this league. The "expectations" game is a fraught one, and often silly. The expectation is to make the dance and push to be in the top echelon of the league. And if you do that much of the time, good things happen. Barring the glacial shift of prolonged success, Wisconsin best will always be what it is, working for a high floor so the ceiling is closer.
Through nearly seven seasons, Gard will have two conference titles, two sweet 16s in four tries, six NCAA quality teams.That's pretty good. Barring a disaster, he'll likely have two more years before the next big turnover to what's no unknown, and he aced that test the last time. If he's not here, I dare say whoever is runs things a lot like Greg, and will be hoping for his level of success.
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Izzo looks like he is trying to eat his own face.
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Also worth noting in the transfer portal era. MSU left two scholarships open. You can't tell me some halfway decent MAC senior wasn't worth a flier
Is that really the issue? This team has a bunch of guys probably at the level of that MAC senior.
But they don't have the 1-2 special guys, who can elevate in that big moment. Maybe MAC senior could do that, but not so likely.
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That "we don't give a damn for the whole state of Michigan" chant right there at the end would have provoked another HC from that state into fisticuffs. Izzo? Nah, he didn't skip a beat.
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And I'm not sure what the answer is. Moving the line back just leads to ugly basketball. I'm not opposed to the line, but guys are too good at it now for it to be worth 1.5 points, and it punishes good defense. Purdue made a great defensive play last game, and the ball bounced to Houser. He got a clean look, but from about 6 feet behind the line, and swished it. And it didn't feel like a prayer. Like if every QB could throw 70 yard ropes and football turned into teams trading deep shots, it would be awful. But we let it happen to basketball. Much like baseball, we've learned the best parts of the game are actually super inefficient. I love watching a guy run his man through 3 screens to get a clean 12 foot look. Not a thing anymore.
In college we used to take a shot every time MSU made a 3. Back then, 8 in a game was on the high end. Now? You would die
I find this part fascinating because it's the sort of evolution toward rewarding the most basic skill. Like, it's the end result of having the 3, but a version of the sport without 3s is frankly hard to watch.
I find two elements of it more interesting. The first is that the 3-point revolution, for better or worse, helped the team ball aspect. The way post play and iso-slashing had evolved, a lot of the game became particularly staid. Working your way for a nice 12-footer had its perks, but now that's often phased out for a nice 21-footer. And with more space, the passing and ball movement seems better. Another element that I think is understated is people got smarter and started having people not take shots they liked but were bad. I remember watching some old Pistons-Lakers game. And in the second quarter, you had Rick Mahorn and Kurt Rambis firing up long hooks or turn around jumpers. Just not great shots, but that was just part of it. We shifted toward saying "you do what you do well" which funnels the ball in different ways.
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Joey Brunk finishes with 18 and 6. I will lay hands on your newborn child to bless them for an appropriate fee.
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Joey Brunk finishes with 18 and 6. I will lay hands on your newborn child to bless them for an appropriate fee.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FM-HqKsXIAAnDJW?format=jpg&name=small)
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Good for Brunk. He bounced around a bit, never really found that spot. Nice for him to get this moment.
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What would happen to college basketball if you eliminated the 3pt line?
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What would happen to college basketball if you eliminated the 3pt line?
Immediately? A lot of free throws
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Scrum under the basket on every play.
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Immediately? A lot of free throws
Wooo, more ref involvement!
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Guys like Hunter Dickinson and Kofi Cockburn would be lottery picks instead of borderline undraftable
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I'm trying to picture what UW would look like with Joey Jo Jo on the team, and I don't think I like the picture.
Dodge a bullet there, methinks, as I don't see where any significant minutes would come from.
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What would happen to college basketball if you eliminated the 3pt line?
I'm old enough to remember
it wasn't that bad
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I'm trying to picture what UW would look like with Joey Jo Jo on the team, and I don't think I like the picture.
Dodge a bullet there, methinks, as I don't see where any significant minutes would come from.
I think he'd be great on Wisconsin. Where he wouldn't have to play as many minutes, or guard guys in the post. He could just be a little bit of size and shoot three. He's in WAY over his head on a team where he's expected to be one of their best three players. If he could come in and play 15-18 minutes a game off the bench. Shoot a few 3s.
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He basically came out and said he was too good for Wisconsin - just like Herro did.
That's not a good fit in Madison.
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I think he'd be great on Wisconsin. Where he wouldn't have to play as many minutes, or guard guys in the post. He could just be a little bit of size and shoot three. He's in WAY over his head on a team where he's expected to be one of their best three players. If he could come in and play 15-18 minutes a game off the bench. Shoot a few 3s.
I don't think he'd be happy doing that.
He's an odd duck because as far as I can tell, he's just not good enough to be a high 20s-MPG guy on a high-level team. The fact that a guy like Tom Izzo is only playing him 20 MPG, and would be playing him less if Bingham/Hall/Marble were more stable/reliable players speaks volumes. Like the fact that he can't hold down a bigger even complementary role is wild.
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Big South tournament keeps delivering.
Out of the first 5 games, we've had 4 OT games, and a buzzer beater
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Going to try to post an updated NCAA and NIT Bracketology each week, simply 2/3 SOR, and 1/3 KenPom. Things should come into focus more as we go on. Still have some outliers.
For auto-bid purposes, I'm assuming whoever is in first gets the autobid, but that the highest ranked KenPom team wins the tournament
Mini March 4 Update (with change from Monday morning)
Big Ten NCAA Teams
- Wisconsin - 3 seed
- Purdue - 3 seed (-1)
- Illinois - 5 seed
- Iowa - 5 seed (+2)
- Ohio State - 6 seed
- Michigan State - 8 seed (-1)
- Michigan - 10 seed (+1)
NCAA changes
- Creighton, Florida and Virginia Tech, replacing Wyoming, Xavier and Indiana as at larges (SMU, Memphis, Florida, VT in First 4)
- Texas State replaces South Alabama as Sun Belt auto-bid, due to South Alabama losing (#14 seed)
- Longwood replaces Gardner Webb as Big South auto-bid, due to passing Gardner Webb in KenPom (#16 seed)
- Wright State replaces Oakland as Horizon auto-bid, due to Oakland losing (#16 seed, in First 4)
Big Ten NIT Teams
- Indiana - 1 seed (down from NCAA)
- Rutgers - 2 seed (+1)
- Maryland - 6 seed (previously out)
Other Big Ten teams
- Minnesota - #9 team out
- Northwestern - #10 team out
- Penn State - #11 team out
- Nebraska - n/a
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Buckeyes have seven guys going through Senior Day on Sunday
- E.J. Liddell
- Justin Ahrens
- Jamari Wheeler
- Joey Brunk
- Ced Russell
- Jimmy Sotos
- Kyle Young
Liddell and Ahrens still have eligibility, but this would signal they are definitely leaving. So the question mark for next season will be whether Malaki Branham goes pro and what Seth Towns and Justice Sueing want to do - they each still have eligibility. Buckeyes have five freshmen committed, plus redshirt freshman Kalen Etzler. So that will be six new faces on the team next year, and possibly some transfer options.
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Updated projected final standings/BTT seeds heading into the final weekend:
- 16-4/25-5 Wisconsin
- 15-5/23-8 Illinois
- 14-6/25-6 Purdue
- 13-7/20-9 Ohio State
- 12-8/18-12 Rutgers (wins tie over IA based on H2H, no game in Iowa City)
- 12-8/22-9 Iowa
- 11-9/20-11 Michigan State
- 10-10/16-14 Michigan
- 9-11/18-12 Indiana
- 7-13/15-16 Maryland (beats NU in H2H2H, beats PSU based on better record against IL)
- 7-13/12-16 Penn State (beats NU in H2H2H, loses to UMD based on record against IL)
- 7-13/14-15 Northwestern (loses H2H2H tie with PSU and UMD, 1-3)
- 4-16/13-16 Minnesota
- 3-17/9-22 Nebraska
Thus, the match-ups in Indianapolis next week would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:
- #11 Penn State vs #14 Nebraska, 830 BTN
- #12 Northwestern vs #13 Minnesota, 6 BTN
Thursday, March 10, 2022:
- #5 Rutgers vs NU/MN, 230 BTN
- #6 Iowa vs PSU/UNL, 9 BTN
- #7 Michigan State vs #10 Maryland, 630 BTN
- #8 Michigan vs #9 Indiana, noon BTN
Friday, March 11, 2022:
- #1 Wisconsin vs M/IU, noon BTN
- #2 Illinois vs MSU/UMD, 630 BTN
- #3 Purdue vs IA/PSU/UNL, 9 BTN
- #4 Ohio State vs RU/NU/MN, 230 BTN
Saturday, March 12, 2022:
- UW/M/IU vs tOSU/RU/NU/MN, 1 CBS
- IL/MSU/UMD vs PU/IA/PSU/UNL, 330 CBS
Sunday, March 13, 2022:
- UW/M/IU/tOSU/RU/NU/MN vs IL/MSU/UMD/PU/IA/PSU/UNL, 330 CBS
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Here is a quick look at what is left:
(https://i.imgur.com/D18heVe.png)
Here is the handy-dandy tie-breaker chart:
(https://i.imgur.com/u8pA7XS.png)
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All teams in order of what seed they would be if the tournament started before this weekend's games along with all possibilities for them:
#1 15-4 Wisconsin:
The Badgers will be the outright Champion and #1 seed unless:
- They lose at home to Nebraska, AND
- Illinois beats Iowa.
If both of those things happen the Badgers and Illini will tie for 1/2 and the Illini win that tie.
#2 14-5 Illinois:
Illinois would win a tie with UW or lose a tie with PU. Thus, they will be the #2 seed unless:
- They win over Iowa AND UW loses to UNL. In this case Illinois will be the #1 seed, OR
- They lose to Iowa AND PU wins over IU. In this case Illinois will be the #3 seed.
#3 13-6 Purdue:
Purdue wins all potential ties. They will be #3 unless they beat IU AND Illinois loses to Iowa. In that case they will be #2.
#4 12-7 Iowa:
Iowa would win a tie with tOSU or lose a tie with PU so if they beat Illinois they are the #4 seed. If they lose they'll finish 12-8. That would be behind UW/IL/PU but it could be tied with tOSU (if they lose to M) and/or RU (if they beat PSU). Iowa would win a tie with tOSU or lose a tie with RU and they would finish in the middle of a three-way tie with both. Thus:
- #4 seed if they win.
- #4 seed if they lose AND RU loses to PSU AND tOSU loses to M.
- #5 seed if they lose and EITHER tOSU or RU wins.
- #6 seed if they lose and BOTH tOSU and RU win.
#5 12-7 Ohio State:
The Buckeyes lose all potential ties:
- #4 seed if they beat M and IA loses to IL
- #5 seed if they beat M and IA beats IL
- #5 seed if they lose to M and RU loses to PSU
- #6 seed if they lose to M and RU beats PSU
#6 11-8 Rutgers:
If Rutgers wins they'll finish 12-8. That would be behind the top-3 but it would be tied with tOSU and/or Iowa if either the Buckeyes or Hawkeyes lose. Rutgers would win either of those ties (and also the 3-way tie with both). Thus, if Rutgers wins:
- #4 seed if BOTH tOSU and IA lose
- #5 seed if either tOSU or IA loses
- #6 seed if BOTH tOSU and IA win
If Rutgers loses they'll finish 11-9. That would be behind the top-5 and could be tied with MSU and/or M if either the Spartans or Wolverines win. Rutgers wins any combination of ties with either or both of the M schools so if they lose they'll still get the #6 seed.
#7 10-9 Michigan State:
If the season ended today the Spartans would win the tie with their instate rival based on having a better record against Wisconsin. If they win they'll be the #7 seed no matter what RU and M do because MSU would lose to RU and win over M in any two or three way tie with either or both of them. If MSU loses they'll finish 10-10 and behind the top-6. That would be tied with M (if they lose tOSU) and/or IU (if they beat PU). MSU would win any of those ties because they went 1-0 against IU and have a better best win than M. Thus, if MSU loses to Maryland and finishes 10-10:
- #7 seed if M loses at tOSU
- #8 seed if M wins at tOSU
#8 10-9 Michigan:
The Wolverines would win a tie with IU but lose a tie with MSU so they will be the #8 seed unless:
- They win in Columbus, AND
- MSU loses at home to Maryland.
If both of those things happened the Wolverines would be the #7 seed.
#9 9-10 Indiana:
The Hoosiers have clinched the #9 seed. They would catch either or both of the Michigan schools if they win at Purdue AND either M loses at tOSU or MSU loses vs UMD but IU loses any of those ties so they'd still be the #9 seed.
#10 7-12 Maryland:
The Terps win all potential ties. If they beat MSU they'll be the #10 seed and avoid playing on Wednesday. However, if they lose and PSU wins at RU then UMD would be the #11 seed.
#11 7-12 Penn State:
The Nittany Lions would lose a tie with UMD or win a tie with NU or finish in the middle of a 3-way tie with both. Thus, they'll be the #11 seed unless they win (@RU) AND UMD loses (@MSU). In that case PSU would get the #10 seed.
#12 6-13 Northwestern:
The Wildcats have clinched the #12 seed. They would catch either UMD or PSU or both if they win vs MN AND either UMD loses at MSU or PSU loses at RU but NU loses any of those ties so they'd still be the #12 seed.
#13 4-15 Minnesota:
The Gophers will be the #13 seed unless they lose (@NU) AND UNL wins (@UW). In that case they'd tie Nebraska and they'd lose that tie.
#14 3-16 Nebraska:
The Cornhuskers will be the #14 seed unless they win (@UW) and MN loses (@NU). In that case they'd tie Minnesota and they'd win that tie.
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- #11 Penn State vs #14 Nebraska, 830 BTN
GREAT FOOTBALL MATCHUP, IN THE '90'S.
- #12 Northwestern vs #13 Minnesota, 6 BTN
I GOT NOTHING.
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GREAT FOOTBALL MATCHUP, IN THE '80's & 90'S.
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And another one tonight
More Hummel slurping Purdue. Every damn time they are on ESPN
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South Alabama upset by bottom seeded Little Rock in the first round of the SBC tourney. They were a predictive metrics darling. KenPom picked them to win the SBC tourney from the #5 seed
And now #8 Louisiana upsets #1 Texas State. Neither of the top two teams in KenPom even reach the semis
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Jesus. Just checked ESPN. Purdue by 2 points?
Yep. I was right. Far less frustration doing my taxes than watching that shite.
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Ignoring a tied game late between two ranked teams, including a fellow Blue blood like Kansas, to show Coach k take the court is the final Duke BS
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If you changed the jerseys on this OVC Championship, and said this was MSU-UM, I would 100% buy it. They run their stuff way better than middling P5 teams now
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Liddell and Ahrens still have eligibility, but this would signal they are definitely leaving.
Would it?
I feel like a lot of the older guys who have not made up their minds walk. Brad Davison walked last year.
(Well, I guess Liddell is a junior. That's a good indicator he'll leave or try his damndest to do so, unless the NBA just tells him "nah")
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Rat face!
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Would it?
I feel like a lot of the older guys who have not made up their minds walk. Brad Davison walked last year.
(Well, I guess Liddell is a junior. That's a good indicator he'll leave or try his damndest to do so, unless the NBA just tells him "nah")
Yeah it's not set in stone, but certainly an indication they indicate this as the last ride. Liddell is definitely gone - Holtmann has said that several times. Ahrens could still turn around and come back.
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Gee whiz I had not seen Memphis' floor before. It doesn't look real.
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No Dickinson for Michigan. But Young is out and unclear if Key will play. Joey Brunk, we all look to you.
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No Dickinson for Michigan. But Young is out and unclear if Key will play. Joey Brunk, we all look to you.
Yuck. Key hobbled off the floor after falling into the media sitting on the floor. Never want to see that this time of year.
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Gee whiz I had not seen Memphis' floor before. It doesn't look real.
It's amazing how good they good they got once they stopped playing Emoni Bates. I'm not sure what the kid's move is. He has been so mishandled by his dad, you absolutely have to feel bad for him.
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No Dickinson for Michigan.
This is where you miss Juwan, and knowing when to time a COVID outbreak :57:
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Well, it appears OSU is still a mess, yet their one respite was clubbing MSU. So that doesn't bode great for this afternoon
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OSU with some incredibly sloppy play on both sides of the ball.
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OSU with some incredibly sloppy play on both sides of the ball.
The good news is they will not be playing in the crappy mid-afternoon weekday time slot.
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I have an explanation
https://twitter.com/JoeDGemma/status/1500531393297895429?s=20&t=tSPZnUjA01YEdtGtrk29Hw
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I will never understand the appeal of Gus Johnson.
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That was pathetic.
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That was pathetic.
Lot of Buckeye injuries. They came out flat 2nd half. Still think the buckeyes can make a run. Something I don’t believe Michigan can do.
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Lot of Buckeye injuries. They came out flat 2nd half. Still think the buckeyes can make a run. Something I don’t believe Michigan can do.
Thanks but I think you have it backwards. Michigan has possibly the highest ceiling in the league but they rarely play anywhere close to it. If they do, they are definitely capable of a big run. I agree, however, that it is highly unlikely.
Ohio State is collapsing. They have just two or three games left:
- Vs the 11/14 winner on Thursday night in the BTT
- MAYBE vs #3 on Friday night in the BTT
- One tournament game.
Buckeyes are officially the #6 seed in the BTT. Pending the outcome of IA/IL they will finish either:
- Tied with RU for 5/6, or
- Tied with IA and RU for 4/5/6.
They lose either tie and get the #6 seed either way.
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I cursed them by watching the second half. Again, maybe the fourth of 5th time I have seen them.
They validated what I have seen before. They are really bad basketball team. No interior defense, sloppy, unorganized and prone to long spells with no energy.
Not sure how they won as many games as they did?
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Correct call, but tough break for Nebraska
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I will never understand the appeal of Gus Johnson.
It's the Dick Vitale trajectory. Energetic, but genuine broadcaster; who becomes a phony caricature of himself.
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Correct call, but tough break for Nebraska
Followed by a very obviously incorrect call
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Wisconsin in the bonus 3:42 into the half, lol
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Wisconsin in the bonus 3:42 into the half, lol
Nebraska then takes a soft T, for looking at the ref after ignoring yet another Wisconsin foul. This is bordering on comical
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too many tough calls vs the Huskers in the 2nd half
announcers are even on it
oh well
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too many tough calls vs the Huskers in the 2nd half
announcers are even on it
oh well
Tough?
I think even Duke would be embarrassed to get a whistle this friendly. I flipped back to the MVC Championship, the game in Madison is as close to a fix as you'll see. They literally overturned a correct call to call a foul against Nebraska, then ignored an obvious hack, then T'd up the Nebraska player for glancing at him after he ignored it. I admire your restraint. What is going against Nebraska is what mwc claimed went against Maryland every game
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Gonna be an interesting postgame in Madison. Davis may have done some thing to his knee.
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Thanks but I think you have it backwards. Michigan has possibly the highest ceiling in the league but they rarely play anywhere close to it. If they do, they are definitely capable of a big run. I agree, however, that it is highly unlikely.
Michigan doesn’t have the defense to make a run. Additionally, they try to force too much of their offense through Dickinson. Terrance Williams II should be on the court more than he is and I personally think they play Diabate too much. He’s both a liability on defense and struggles to finish offensively. I’ve never seen a 6’11” guy avoid dunking to shoot layups more than Moussa.
osu depends on their health. If they are healthy, they’re talented enough to make some noise, but not deep enough to be missing a couple guys.
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Wisconsin: Highly intent on displaying most of the behavior that matches the dissonance in their computer rankings, but not the main one, which is losing.
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Michigan doesn’t have the defense to make a run. Additionally, they try to force too much of their offense through Dickinson. Terrance Williams II should be on the court more than he is and I personally think they play Diabate too much. He’s both a liability on defense and struggles to finish offensively. I’ve never seen a 6’11” guy avoid dunking to shoot layups more than Moussa.
osu depends on their health. If they are healthy, they’re talented enough to make some noise, but not deep enough to be missing a couple guys.
They definitely have the most NBA talent in the league, perhaps by far. The problem is it's young. Diabate has been emerging recently, although I thought he'd be a better defender. If they keep getting this from Jones and Williams, I think they are a 2nd weekend team
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Tough?
I think even Duke would be embarrassed to get a whistle this friendly. I flipped back to the MVC Championship, the game in Madison is as close to a fix as you'll see. They literally overturned a correct call to call a foul against Nebraska, then ignored an obvious hack, then T'd up the Nebraska player for glancing at him after he ignored it. I admire your restraint. What is going against Nebraska is what mwc claimed went against Maryland every game
I was thinking....... this is what it's like for MAryland
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And yet?
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perhaps the coach deserves another season
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Wisconsin: Highly intent on displaying most of the behavior that matches the dissonance in their computer rankings, but not the main one, which is losing.
Well, I figured Nebraska was not good enough (or UW was not bad enough) to make me pay for posting before the game was over.
About that ...
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If you changed Julius Marble's hair to a receding hairline, he could pass for 45
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I have this game on and there's no reason to, but I'm on the couch and half want to take a nap, half need to get in a run.
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Tyson Walker has to be the best shooter who hates hooting MSU has ever had
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A lot at stake in Champaign and not just for the Hawkeyes and Illini.
If Illinois wins:
- Illinois gets a share of the league title and not just a share, they own the tiebreaker so they are The Champion and #1 seed in Indianapolis.
- Wisconsin drops to co-champions and #2 seed.
- Purdue falls to #3 seed.
- Iowa falls into a tie with RU and tOSU for 4th/5th/6th. They get the #5 seed.
- Rutgers gets the #4 seed and double bye.
If Iowa wins:
- Wisconsin is outright Champion.
- Illinois falls into a tie with PU for 2/3, loses the tie, and gets the #3 seed.
- Purdue gets the #2 seed.
- Iowa gets the #4 seed.
- Rutgers gets the #5 seed and has to play on Thursday.
Short version, BTT seeds if Illinois/Iowa wins:
- Illinois/Wisconsin
- Wisconsin/Purdue
- Purdue/Illinois
- Rutgers/Iowa
- Iowa/Rutgers
Interesting that the top five seeds are all determined by this game.
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The rest of the BTT seeds:
- #6 Ohio State
- #7 Michigan State
- #8 Michigan
- #9 Indiana
- #10 Maryland
- #11 Penn State
- #12 Northwestern
- #13 Minnesota if they beat Northwestern, Nebraska if the Wildcats win
- #14 Minnesota if they lose to Northwestern, Nebraska is the Gophers win
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Feels like we play Maryland every year
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Is that really the issue? This team has a bunch of guys probably at the level of that MAC senior.
But they don't have the 1-2 special guys, who can elevate in that big moment. Maybe MAC senior could do that, but not so likely.
Just seeing this now. Perimeter and wings, agreed. But I think we could have used a couple of interior guys who could defend and rebound. Bingham, Hall and Christie had no legs left in March because they were asked to overextend themselves doing things you best offensive guard, wing and post shouldn't be asked to shoulder exclusively.
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Thank you, Nebraska. I have wanted to see this for a quite a long time.
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damn glad to help
13 seed! who hooo!
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNNzhH-XIAUFyp-?format=png&name=small)
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My bosses will be more happy that I won't be intently watching until after work on Friday.
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WTF??
I was out all day on the boat and I just see something not possible?
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Thank you, Nebraska. I have wanted to see this for a quite a long time.
Bite me.
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Who is Trey McGowens?
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Bryce McGowens little brother
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the Huskers looked good last night, but they're not going 2-0 in their last games
unless of course their opponents lay down to rest starters
Well?
Current streaks for B1G teams:
- W3: IL, UW
- W2: RU
- W1: PU, MSU, M, NU
- L1: UW, IA, tOSU, UMD
- L2: IU
- L3: PSU
- L4: MN
So Nebraska finished with the longest winning streak in the league!
They were 0-12 heading into the MN game on February 9 and since then they are a respectable 4-4 including three road wins with two of those being over tournament teams.
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Who is Trey McGowens?
Older brother of Bryce McGowens. SC product, was a key player on some bad Pitt teams, transferred to Neb as they tried to land his 5-star bother.
Generally a decidedly OK player who has been hurt and in a smaller role this year.
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Any chance someone wants to run the Big Ten Tournament game this year?
(The one where we drafted players and you had to gamble as to whether it was better to get one of the best players who could go off for 30 points in one game, but the team loses, or go for that solid 8 points per game guy, but could potentially play in 4 games)
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Well?
Current streaks for B1G teams:
- W3: IL, UW
- W2: RU
- W1: PU, MSU, M, NU
- L1: UW, IA, tOSU, UMD
- L2: IU
- L3: PSU
- L4: MN
So Nebraska finished with the longest winning streak in the league!
They were 0-12 heading into the MN game on February 9 and since then they are a respectable 4-4 including three road wins with two of those being over tournament teams.
could have make a boatload of money at the casino
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Any chance that the Hoosiers run up the score, and then save all four of their second half timeouts for the final four seconds of the game?
(https://d1iubivivot1gj.cloudfront.net/images/2022/3/7/2022_B1G_Bracket.jpg?width=1416&quality=80&format=jpg)
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two more wins for the Huskers and I can live with this craptacular season
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Any chance someone wants to run the Big Ten Tournament game this year?
(The one where we drafted players and you had to gamble as to whether it was better to get one of the best players who could go off for 30 points in one game, but the team loses, or go for that solid 8 points per game guy, but could potentially play in 4 games)
I don't remember that at all. When was this?
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I don't remember that at all. When was this?
ELA ran it for years.
It is way to late to do it now. It needs to be set up before the final regular season games, then drafted before the tournament starts.
I think ELA quit when we expanded and added a day because it got too tight timewise.
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ELA ran it for years.
It is way to late to do it now. It needs to be set up before the final regular season games, then drafted before the tournament starts.
I think ELA quit when we expanded and added a day because it got too tight timewise.
Yeah, I haven't done it since it was an 11 team field
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Interesting that the #8 Michigan vs #9 Indiana game Thursday at lunchtime is basically a Tournament game. The winner picks up a quality win and even if they lose to Illinois on Friday that wouldn't really hurt them since it would be a "good" loss while the loser is probably out.
My predictions:
- #13 Nebraska over #12 Northwestern
- #11 Penn State over #14 Minnesota
- #8 Michigan over #9 Indiana
- #5 Iowa over Nebraska
- #10 Maryland over #7 Michigan State
- Penn State over #6 Ohio State
- #1 Illinois over Michigan
- #4 Rutgers over Iowa
- #2 Wisconsin over Maryland
- #3 Purdue over Penn State
- Illinois over Rutgers
- Purdue over Wisconsin
- Purdue over Illinois
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Going to try to post an updated NCAA and NIT Bracketology each week, simply 2/3 SOR, and 1/3 KenPom. Things should come into focus more as we go on. Still have some outliers.
For auto-bid purposes, I'm assuming whoever is in first gets the autobid, but that the highest ranked KenPom team wins the tournament
March 8 update
NCAA
SOUTH
- #1 Baylor vs. #16 Nicholls State/Wright State
- #8 MICHIGAN STATE vs. #9 Wake Forest
- #5 Murray State vs. #12 South Dakota State
- #4 UCLA vs. #13 Chattanooga
- #3 Texas Tech vs. #14 Longwood
- #6 North Carolina vs. #11 Memphis
- #7 IOWA vs. #10 Loyola(Chi)
- #2 Tennessee vs. #15 Georgia State
WEST
- #1 Arizona vs. #16 Colgate/Texas Southern
- #8 TCU vs. #9 MICHIGAN
- #5 Saint Mary's vs. #12 Oklahoma/Creighton
- #4 Arkansas vs. #13 Vermont
- #3 Houston vs. #14 NM State
- #6 Connecticut vs. #11 Notre Dame
- #7 USC vs. #10 Boise State
- #2 Gonzaga vs. #15 UC Irvine
MIDWEST
- #1 Auburn vs. #16 Delaware
- #8 Seton Hall vs. #9 San Diego State
- #5 Texas vs. #12 North Texas
- #4 ILLINOIS vs. #13 Toledo
- #3 PURDUE vs. #14 Wagner
- #6 Alabama vs. #11 VCU
- #7 Colorado State vs. #10 Marquette
- #2 Duke vs. #15 Montana State
EAST
- #1 Kentucky vs. #16 Jacksonville
- #8 Iowa State vs. #9 Davidson
- #5 Providence vs. #12 SMU/Florida
- #4 WISCONSIN vs. #13 Iona
- #3 Villanova vs. #14 Princeton
- #6 LSU vs. #11 Miami
- #7 OHIO STATE vs. #10 San Francisco
- #2 Kansas vs. #15 Norfolk State
NIT
LARAMIE
- #1 Wyoming vs. #8 Alcorn State
- #4 Kansas State vs. #5 Colorado
- #3 South Carolina vs. #6 Florida State
- #2 RUTGERS vs. #7 Towson
CINCINNATI
- #1 Xavier vs. #8 Cleveland State
- #4 Belmont vs. #5 West Virginia
- #3 St. Bonaventure vs. #6 Drake
- #2 BYU vs. #7 Texas State
BLOOMINGTON
- #1 INDIANA vs. #8 Bryant
- #4 Saint Louis vs. #5 St. John's
- #3 Virginia vs. #6 Santa Clara
- #2 Texas A&M vs. #7 Northern Iowa
BLACKSBURG
- #1 Virginia Tech vs. #8 Jacksonville State
- #4 UAB vs. #5 Oregon
- #3 Mississippi State vs. #6 MARYLAND
- #2 Dayton vs. #7 Long Beach State
* - not excluding sub-.500 teams until their season is over
Remaining Big Ten teams
- Northwestern - #3 team out
- Minnesota - #11 team out
- Penn State - #12 team out
- Nebraska - n/a
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Interesting that the #8 Michigan vs #9 Indiana game Thursday at lunchtime is basically a Tournament game. The winner picks up a quality win and even if they lose to Illinois on Friday that wouldn't really hurt them since it would be a "good" loss while the loser is probably out.
My predictions:
I think there's a lot of chalk, and Illinois wins their 2nd straight
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Lunardi's latest, entering the BTT says that we have eight teams in with two of those eight on the bubble and another bubble team barely out. The bubble teams are:
- Rutgers: Second-to-last team in, play-in game for a #12 seed
- Michigan: Last bye, #11 seed.
- Indiana: First team out.
The B1G teams in are:
- #2 Wisconsin
- #3 Purdue
- #4 Illinois
- #6 Iowa, Ohio State
- #8 Michigan State
- #11 Michigan
- #12 (play-in) Rutgers
Based on past performance of teams with those seeds, those teams should result in:
- 4.86 teams in the R32
- 2.56 teams in the S16
- 1.19 teams in the E8
- 0.52 teams in the F4
- 0.23 teams in the NC
- 0.09 NC's
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Congrats to Johnny Davis on being named B1G player of the year.
Congrats to Greg Gard on being named B1G coach of the year.
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I hope I'm wrong, but I honestly don't like our league's chances of doing much damage in the Tournament. I think we are a very strong league top-to-bottom and I think we have a slew of teams that are capable of beating almost anybody but none of them have shown the consistency necessary to get very far.
I'm pretty down on my Buckeyes but that said the Buckeyes have some impressive performances:
- A win over Dook (#2 per Lunardi)
- A win over Wisconsin (#2 per Lunardi)
- A road win over Illinois (#4 per Lunardi)
- A VERY close road loss to Purdue (#3 per Lunardi)
If they play like that, the only thing that would truly surprise me would be a win over a #1 seed. The problem is that they also have some BAD performances and if they play like "bad Ohio State" they'll get sent home in the first round.
Lunardi has the Buckeyes as the #6 in the East Region playing Memphis in Pittsburgh then (probably) Villanova if they get past the Tigers. Then, if they were to make the second weekend they'd likely get Kentucky in the S16 and Kansas in the E8 if they get past the Wildcats.
On a good day the Buckeyes could absolutely beat either Kentucky or Villanova but if they have a bad day, Memphis will send them packing.
I know that, to an extent, it is ALWAYS true that teams have good and bad days but I just feel like the league's teams are less consistent than normal this year.
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I hope I'm wrong, but I honestly don't like our league's chances of doing much damage in the Tournament. I think we are a very strong league top-to-bottom and I think we have a slew of teams that are capable of beating almost anybody but none of them have shown the consistency necessary to get very far.
I know that, to an extent, it is ALWAYS true that teams have good and bad days but I just feel like the league's teams are less consistent than normal this year.
Certainly been true of Purdue this year. Tremendous ceiling. Abysmal floor.
Two centers that create matchup nightmares for any team in the tournament, coupled with the most dynamic guard we may have EVER had in the Old Gold & Black, and a sharpshooter in Sasha that has such a quick release that if he gets half a step, he can get that shot off cleanly. Depth at pretty much every position, and a supporting cast that all have diverse skills that can support the stars.
But when the 3-ball isn't falling, and when Ivey is bullying his way to the rim and not kicking out when it isn't there, and if a team has a big that shoots from deep and can pull Tredey away from the paint... And when they forget to play defense? It can be UGLY.
I don't think there's a team in the field that Purdue can't beat, but if they come out flat they can lose to almost anyone too.
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We were in Florida, so I didn't see the road win at Wisconsin. I'm going to assume MSU played well there. That might be the only time MSU has played well since before Christmas. Maybe the home win against Michigan? But that was when Michigan was still a mess. Even the home win against Purdue, Purdue played horribly, and MSU played meh. If MSU had played well, they could have won that easily, instead they needed a buzzer beater, and still had an unforgiveable turnover to give Purdue a second shot.
MSU has enough talent that if they play well, I think they could beat an Ohio State or Rutgers. Anyone better than that requires that team to come with a C- or worse performance.
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I hope I'm wrong, but I honestly don't like our league's chances of doing much damage in the Tournament. I think we are a very strong league top-to-bottom and I think we have a slew of teams that are capable of beating almost anybody but none of them have shown the consistency necessary to get very far.
I shrug over such things.
The tournament is weird, wonderful and dumb. Just gotta let it play out.
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Don't tell the NEC fans this doesn't matter. Yikes
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What is at stake for each of the B1G teams in the B1G Tournament starting tonight in Indianapolis? I'll take them by groups:
Group #1 are the two co-Champions and Purdue:
- 15-5/22-8 Illinois: #14 in NET, #4 seed per Lunardi and ELA
- 15-5/24-6 Wisconsin: #21 in NET, #2 seed per Lunardi, #4 seed per ELA
- 14-6/25-6 Purdue: #13 in NET, #3 seed per Lunardi and ELA
None of these teams would have the resume for a #1 seed even with a 3-0 run in the BTT but I am fairly confident that any of these teams would secure a #2 seed with a BTT Championship. There probably isn't more than one #2 seed available for the B1G though so the other two (all three if none of these teams wins) will be in the #3/4 range. That is no small difference:
- #2 seeds win their opener 94% of the time for the 3/4 that drops to 85% and 78% respectively.
- #2 seeds make the S16 almost 2/3 the time, for the 3/4 that drops to roughly half.
- #2 seeds make the E8 almost half the time, for the 3/4 that drops to 26% and 15% respectively.
- #2 seeds are about twice as likely as 3/4 seeds to make the F4 and more likely to win a semi-final or NC.
Group #2 is Iowa, Ohio State, and Michigan State:
- 12-8/22-9 Iowa: #15 in NET, #6 seed per Lunardi, #7 seed per ELA
- 12-8/19-10 Ohio State: #22 in NET, #6 seed per Lunardi #7 seed per ELA
- 11-9/20-11 Michigan State: #40 in NET, #8 seed per Lunardi and ELA
For these three teams I think the goal has to be to get or stay away from the #7/8/9/10 (particularly 8/9) lines where S16 appearances are quite rare. For comparison:
- Roughly 1/2 of #4 seeds make the S16
- Roughly 1/3 of #5 seeds make the S16
- Almost 1/3 of #6 seeds make the S16
- Less than one-in-five #7 seeds make the S16
- Less than one-in-ten #8 seeds make the S16
- Less than one-in-twenty #9 seeds make the S16
- Less than one-in-six #10 seeds make the S16
- Roughly one-in-six #11 seeds make the S16
- Less than one-in-six #12 seeds make the S16
The 8/9 seeds have it particularly rough. Of the 144 pairs of 8/9 seeds since expansion only one got to play a #16 seed in the second round. That one won of course but the other 143 8/9 winners all had to play a #1 seed in the second round and the results were what you would expect:
- #8 seeds are 14-56 against #1 seeds, .200
- #9 seeds are 6-67 against #1 seeds .082
Even the 7/10 seeds are MUCH less likely to make the S16 than the #6 seeds.
For Iowa and Ohio State this means that they HAVE to avoid a bad loss on Thursday against UNL/NU (IA) or MN/PSU (tOSU). That almost certainly would keep either the Buckeyes or Hawkeyes at least off the 8/9 lines and it might secure a #6. If not, a quarter-final win on Friday against RU (IA) or PU (tOSU) would almost certainly land them at #6 or better.
For the Spartans beating UMD on Thursday might get them off the 8/9 lines but they might also need to knock off Wisconsin on Friday. A semi-final win, particularly if it came against PU, would probably get them up to #6.
Group #3 is the bubble teams:
- 12-8/18-12 Rutgers: #76 in NET, second-to-last team in per Lunardi, #2 in the NIT per ELA
- 11-9/17-13 Michigan: #31 in NET, Last bye per Lunardi, #9 per ELA
- 9-11/18-12 Indiana: #44 in NET, First team out per Lunardi, #1 in the NIT per ELA
All these teams are on or REALLY close to the bubble depending on who you ask. Personally, I think that the IU/M game on Thursday is likely a play-in game and Michigan is the only one of the three that I think would have so much as a prayer with an 0-1 performance in Indianapolis. Rutgers definitely has work to do but the question is how much work. IMHO, one win might be enough for the Scarlet Knights but I think that depends on who they end up playing. I think that beating Iowa and losing to Illinois probably gets them in but beating UNL/NU and losing to IU/M probably isn't enough.
Group #4 is the rest of the league:
- 7-13/15-16 Maryland: #89 in NET, out.
- 7-13/14-15 Northwestern: #82 in NET, out.
- 7-13/12-16 Penn State: #93 in NET, out.
- 4-16/13-16 Minnesota: #107 in NET, out.
- 4-16/10-21 Nebraska: #140 in NET, out.
These teams would need a three (UMD) or four (the others) win run to a title to get into the dance.
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I just want to stay off the 4 line... I have a lot more trust that Purdue as a 3 could knock off a 2 in the S16 than they could knock off a 1.
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I just want to stay off the 4 line... I have a lot more trust that Purdue as a 3 could knock off a 2 in the S16 than they could knock off a 1.
And there are multiple ways that staying off that #4 line helps:
- As a #4 (or 5, 12, or 13) if you make the S16 there is an 85.42% chance that the team on the other side of the Court will be a #1.
- As a #3 (or 6, 11, or 14) if you make the S16 not only will you definitely NOT face a #1, but the chance of facing a #2 is much lower, only 63.19%.
Then, on top of that:
- #1 seeds are 100-23 (.813)
- #2 seeds are 65-26 (.714)
Then, when you do face the possibility of facing a #1 seed in the E8, the chance that you actually WILL face a #1 seed is down to 69.44% so there is almost a one-in-three chance that you'll duck that problem altogether (at least until the third weekend).
You are not wrong to think this way, here are the wins in each round by seed (out of 144 of each):
(https://i.imgur.com/Eu6HcuY.png)
3's have made 37 E8's, #4's have made barely over half that (21).
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I just want to stay off the 4 line... I have a lot more trust that Purdue as a 3 could knock off a 2 in the S16 than they could knock off a 1.
Not sure there's a ton of difference there. I always think the big gap is between the 2s and the 3s. That's the only reason I care about it this year, is to see if MSU can beat Maryland and Wisconsin, and if so, is that enough to get them up to a 6? I still think they probably need to get to Sunday, but who knows. In 2016, I thought they were a lock for a 1, and they got a 2. And in 2017 I was just hoping to avoid being in the First 4, and they ended up getting an 8
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Not sure there's a ton of difference there. I always think the big gap is between the 2s and the 3s. That's the only reason I care about it this year, is to see if MSU can beat Maryland and Wisconsin, and if so, is that enough to get them up to a 6? I still think they probably need to get to Sunday, but who knows. In 2016, I thought they were a lock for a 1, and they got a 2. And in 2017 I was just hoping to avoid being in the First 4, and they ended up getting an 8
History does not back that up. The big gap is between 1's and 2's. It becomes more clear as you move deeper into the tournament:
In the first round:
- 1's have 143 wins (99.31%)
- 2's have 135 wins (93.75%, gap of 8)
- 3's have 122 wins (84.72%, gap of 13)
In that round the gap between 2 and 3 IS bigger than the gap between 1 and 2 but I think that has more to do with the gap between the 14's, 15's, and 16's.
In the second round:
- 1's have 123 wins
- 2's have 91 wins (gap of 32)
- 3's have 75 wins (gap of 16)
In the S16:
- 1's have 100 wins
- 2's have 65 wins (gap of 35)
- 3's have 37 wins (gap of 28)
In the E8:
- 1's have 60 wins
- 2's have 29 wins (gap of 31)
- 3's have 17 wins (gap of 12)
In the semi-final:
- 1's have 37 wins. All others have 35 combined.
- 2's have 12 wins (gap of 25)
- 3's have 11 wins (gap of 1)
In the NC:
- 1's have 23 wins. All others have 13 combined.
- 2's have 5 wins. (gap of 18)
- 3's have 4 wins (gap of 1)
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History does not back that up. The big gap is between 1's and 2's. It becomes more clear as you move deeper into the tournament:
In the first round:
- 1's have 143 wins (99.31%)
- 2's have 135 wins (93.75%, gap of 8)
- 3's have 122 wins (84.72%, gap of 13)
In that round the gap between 2 and 3 IS bigger than the gap between 1 and 2 but I think that has more to do with the gap between the 14's, 15's, and 16's.
In the second round:
- 1's have 123 wins 86.01%
- 2's have 91 wins (gap of 32) 67.41%
- 3's have 75 wins (gap of 16) 61.48%
In the S16:
- 1's have 100 wins 81.30%
- 2's have 65 wins (gap of 35) 71.43%
- 3's have 37 wins (gap of 28) 49.33%
In the E8:
- 1's have 60 wins 60.00%
- 2's have 29 wins (gap of 31) 44.62%
- 3's have 17 wins (gap of 12) 45.95%
In the semi-final:
- 1's have 37 wins. All others have 35 combined. 61.67%
- 2's have 12 wins (gap of 25) 41.38%
- 3's have 11 wins (gap of 1) 64.71%
In the NC:
- 1's have 23 wins. All others have 13 combined. 62.16%
- 2's have 5 wins. (gap of 18) 41.67%
- 3's have 4 wins (gap of 1) 36.36%
Interesting. Also weird how 3 seeds fare MUCH better in the Final 4 than 2 seeds
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Interesting. Also weird how 3 seeds fare MUCH better in the Final 4 than 2 seeds
I think a lot of that is that the few 3's that have made it that far are probably largely underseeded teams. 3's fare much better on a percentage basis 64.7% wins compared to 41.4% for 2's. For that matter 3's do better on a percentage basis than even the 1's (61.7%) but in raw numbers the 3's are WAY behind the 1's and slightly behind the 2's. Semi-Final records:
- #1's are 37-23 or .617 in 60 attempts.
- #2's are 12-17 or .414 in 29 attempts.
- #3's are 11-6 or .647 in 17 attempts.
- All others are a combined 12-26 or .316 in 38 attempts.
On a percentage basis #6's are actually the best in semi-finals at .667 but that is made up of being 2-1 in just three attempts.
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Not doing a true bracket at this point, but a daily update with the seeds. You can read this as a true snake, so, if you go straight down a line, that would be a region, if they didn't adjust to avoid rematches, and regional considerations, with auto-bids in bold
(number in parenthesis indicates moving up or down a seed line, or new)
NCAA
- Baylor, Auburn, Kentucky, Arizona
- Duke, Tennessee, Kansas, Gonzaga
- PURDUE, Villanova, Texas Tech, Houston
- Arkansas, WISCONSIN, ILLINOIS, UCLA
- Providence, Texas, Murray State, Connecticut (+1)
- North Carolina, IOWA (+1), LSU, Saint Mary's (-1)
- Alabama (-1), USC, OHIO STATE, Colorado State
- Wake Forest (+1), Iowa State, Seton Hall, MICHIGAN STATE
- TCU (-1), MICHIGAN, Davidson, San Diego State
- Loyola(Chi), Marquette, Boise State, San Francisco
- Notre Dame, Memphis, Miami, Oklahoma (+1)
- Florida/SMU, Crieghton/VCU (-1), South Dakota State, North Texas
- Chattanooga, Vermont, Iona, Toledo
- Montana State (+1), Longwood, Princeton, NM State
- UC Irvine, Norfolk State, Delaware (+1), Georgia State
- Bryant (N)/Texas Southern, Nicholls State/Wright State, Colgate, Jacksonville State (N)
NIT
- Xavier, Virginia Tech, Wyoming, INDIANA
- Texas A&M, RUTGERS, BYU, Dayton
- St. Bonaventure, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Virginia
- Kansas State, West Virginia (+1), UAB, Saint Louis
- Belmont (-1), Colorado, St. John's, Oregon
- Vanderbilt (N), Drake, Santa Clara, MARYLAND
- Towson, Florida State (-1), NORTHWESTERN (N), Northern Iowa
- Alcorn State, Cleveland State, Long Beach State, Texas State (N)
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I may be attending IU v Mich tomorrow. Don't think I've managed to see IU in a conference tourney game before despite catching about 10 games over the years in Indy.
Nebraska's impeccable 0 Fer in the NCAA continues another year.
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Pitino and Iona upset by the 9 seed in the MAAC quarterfinals
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Some Wednesday night MAACtion?
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I'll just leave this here.
(https://i.imgur.com/cC3Vcuv.png)
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And this too:
(https://i.imgur.com/ibAGRpI.png)
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Not sure there's a ton of difference there. I always think the big gap is between the 2s and the 3s. That's the only reason I care about it this year, is to see if MSU can beat Maryland and Wisconsin, and if so, is that enough to get them up to a 6? I still think they probably need to get to Sunday, but who knows. In 2016, I thought they were a lock for a 1, and they got a 2. And in 2017 I was just hoping to avoid being in the First 4, and they ended up getting an 8
Torvik still has MSU as likely a 7 seed with wins over Maryland, Wisconsin and Purdue. Only get bumped up to a 6 seed by then beating Illinois.
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Composite Computer Rankings (last week in parenthesis) - 60 computers
- Gonzaga (1)
- Arizona (2)
- Baylor (3)
- Auburn (7)
- Kentucky (5)
- Kansas (4)
- Duke (6)
- Villanova (12)
- Tennessee (10)
- Houston (9)
- PURDUE (8)
- UCLA (13)
- Texas Tech (11)
- ILLINOIS (15)
- Arkansas (14)
- IOWA (22)
- Saint Mary's (20)
- Connecticut (16)
- Texas (17)
- WISCONSIN (18)
- LSU (24)
- Providence (21)
- Alabama (19)
- OHIO STATE (23)
- San Francisco (-)
- 35. Michigan State (27)
- 36. Michigan (34)
- 46. Indiana (39)
- 63. Rutgers (65)
- 81. Maryland (80)
- 87. Northwestern (89)
- 99. Penn State (92)
- 107. Minnesota (98)
- 140. Nebraska (174)
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lucky for me, right in the middle of spring football practice
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Torvik still has MSU as likely a 7 seed with wins over Maryland, Wisconsin and Purdue. Only get bumped up to a 6 seed by then beating Illinois.
Do you expect them to go 3-1?
As for my Buckeyes I think looking at the seeds to determine tOSU's best/worst performances pretty much sums up my view of this team. Based on BTT Seeds:
- The Buckeyes best win is over #1 Illinois . . . on the road.
- The Buckeyes worst loss is to #13 Nebraska . . . at home.
If the Buckeyes can beat the best team in the league on the road or lose to the second-worst team in the league at home then it is impossible to project what they will actually do in any individual game. I wouldn't be surprised if they lose to Penn State tonight but I wouldn't be all that shocked if they beat PSU, beat PU, beat UW, then beat IL to win the BTT. I mean, I'd be surprised that they won four in a row but none of those wins individually would be all that surprising.
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Updated Big Board of NBA prospects on The Athletic
3. Jaden Ivey, Purdue
7. Keegan Murray, Iowa
9. Johnny Davis, Wiscy
19. Malaki Branham, OSU :'(
21. Bryce McGowens, Nebraska
25. E.J. Liddell, OSU
39. Caleb Houstan, Michigan
50. Moussa Diabate, Michigan
56. Kris Murray, Iowa
60. Gabe Brown, MSU
66. Kofi Cockburn, Illinois
68. Zach Edey, Purdue
77. Trevion Williams, Purdue
85. Hunter Dickinson, Michigan
91. Pete Nance, Northwestern
100. Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana
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3/10 Update
Not doing a true bracket at this point, but a daily update with the seeds. You can read this as a true snake, so, if you go straight down a line, that would be a region, if they didn't adjust to avoid rematches, and regional considerations, with auto-bids in bold
(number in parenthesis indicates moving up or down a seed line, or new)
NCAA
- Baylor, Arizona, Auburn, Kentucky
- Duke, Tennessee, Kansas, Gonzaga
- PURDUE, Villanova, Texas Tech, Houston
- Arkansas, ILLINOIS, WISCONSIN, UCLA
- Providence, Texas, Saint Mary's (+1), Murray State
- Alabama (+1), North Carolina, LSU, IOWA
- Connecticut (-2), USC, Colorado State, OHIO STATE
- MICHIGAN (+1), Iowa State, MICHIGAN STATE, Seton Hall
- TCU, Boise State (+1), San Diego State, Davidson
- Notre Dame (+1), San Francisco, Loyola(Chi), Marquette
- Wake Forest (-3), Memphis, Miami, SMU (+1)
- Florida/VCU, Creighton/Oklahoma (-1), South Dakota State, North Texas
- Chattanooga, Vermont, Toledo, NM State (+1)
- UC Irvine (+1), Montana State (+1), Longwood, Princeton
- Saint Peter's (N), Norfolk State, Delaware, Georgia State
- Bryant/Texas Southern, Nicholls State/Wright State, Jacksonville State, Colgate, Jacksonville State
NIT
- INDIANA, Virginia Tech, Wyoming, BYU (+1)
- Xavier (-1), RUTGERS, Dayton, Texas A&M
- South Carolina, St. Bonaventure, Virginia, UAB (+1)
- Belmont (+1), Saint Louis, West Virginia, Mississippi State (-1)
- Colorado, Kansas State (-1), St. John's, Vanderbilt (+1)
- Santa Clara, Drake, Oregon (-1), Iona (N)
- MARYLAND (-1), Towson, NORTHWESTERN, Northern Iowa
- Alcorn State, Cleveland State, Long Beach State, Texas State
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Do you expect them to go 3-1?
Not at all. I had just speculated earlier if beating Maryland and Wisconsin would be enough to get them up to a 6. Based on that, even beating Maryland, Wisconsin AND Purdue likely wouldn't.
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Not at all. I had just speculated earlier if beating Maryland and Wisconsin would be enough to get them up to a 6. Based on that, even beating Maryland, Wisconsin AND Purdue likely wouldn't.
Ok, I was just curious.
Still, your chances of making the S16 are dramatically better as a #7 than as a #8/9:
- 29.86% of #6 seeds have made the S16, 43 out of 144
- 19.44% of #7 seeds have made the S16, 28 out of 144
- 9.72% of #8 seeds have made the S16, 14 out of 144
- 4.86% of #9 seeds have made the S16, 7 out of 144
- 15.97% of #10 seeds have made the S16, 23 out of 144
- 16.67% of #11 seeds have made the S16, 24 out of 144
- 15.28% of #12 seeds have made the S16, 22 out of 144
Above #6 it continues to climb while below #12 it plummets to just 4.17% of #13 seeds, 1.39% of #14's and #15's and no #16's. My point being that 8/9 have the least chance of making the S16 other than the #13's and below so you REALLY want to avoid those lines.
It really shows up on this graph.
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Yeah, the 8/9 line problem is just like the 4/5 line, but worse, in two ways...
- Only once in history has an 8/9 seed avoided a 1 seed in the R32. So you're always getting one of the top teams in the tournament as your R32 opponent.
- The 8/9 team is a FAR worse team than a 4/5. So while a 4/5 is going to have trouble advancing past a 1 in the S16 because they're frankly just not as good, an 8/9 is going to be even more overmatched in the R32 game.
The 7 (or 10) seed may face the #2 in the R32 quite often, but if what we've said previously is true, that the gap between 1/2 is bigger than the gap between 2/3, then a 7 seed is probably significantly less overmatched by the 2 than the 8/9 by the 1.
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Witness to big ten refs in Person.
.. wow.
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Michigan does not deserve to make the tournament.
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Dammit... I wanted to root against Michigan due to the whole Juwan Morgan crap. So I'm happy to see Michigan lose...
...but sadly that means that Indiana won. Nobody needed to see that.
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Man what happened? I was going to turn it on, saw it was a Michigan blowout, so I didn't. Welp
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If the committee considers injuries, should they consider the fact that Phil Martelli will not be coaching Michigan in deciding whether or not they are in?
Nobody had them in the tournament, Phil coached them back into it, first game back for Howard, they blow a 17-point lead. Still think it was a massive mistake by Michigan to not take advantage of a chance to get out from Howard without paying him a dime
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I never thought Ohio State could get Urban Meyer, so never say never, but if somehow the Buckeyes could get Beilein, that would be that level of excitement for a hire. Yes, I realize there is still a coach here.
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I never thought Ohio State could get Urban Meyer, so never say never, but if somehow the Buckeyes could get Beilein, that would be that level of excitement for a hire. Yes, I realize there is still a coach here.
If OSU had a coaching issue, I agree. But I would run Holtzman off to bring in a guy that turns 70 next year.
That said, I'm sad Beilein was in his late 50s by the time he got somewhere he could win big. If he was coaching in the P5 in the 80s like Pitino or K; or even as long as Izzo, I think he would absolutely be in the best of all time discussion. Absolute offensive wiz, and modest enough to realize his teams had a hard ceiling unless they played defense, and he went out and got the best defensive mind he could find.
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If OSU had a coaching issue, I agree. But I would run Holtzman off to bring in a guy that turns 70 next year.
That said, I'm sad Beilein was in his late 50s by the time he got somewhere he could win big. If he was coaching in the P5 in the 80s like Pitino or K; or even as long as Izzo, I think he would absolutely be in the best of all time discussion. Absolute offensive wiz, and modest enough to realize his teams had a hard ceiling unless they played defense, and he went out and got the best defensive mind he could find.
This was my reservation as well. If Beilein was a decade or two younger I would absolutely make that trade. As is . . . not sure.
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Wow!
Iowa is NOT leaving and doubts. It is halftime and they already have about as many points as Michigan and Indiana each scored in their entire game earlier.
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Wow!
Iowa is NOT leaving and doubts. It is halftime and they already have about as many points as Michigan and Indiana each scored in their entire game earlier.
They were at 1.85 ppp late in the first half. That's insane
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So who and why is this #1 on Michigan so hated? I did see his douchy 3pt taunt and getting Td up for demanding an 'and 1' call. Is he known for other stuff? He seemed to get booed more than Juwan at the game today.
Keep in mind I haven't watched much of college hoops all year.
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Northwestern scored two more points than Indiana and seven more points than Michigan today but unfortunately for the Wildcats they were not playing the Hoosiers or the Wolverines and they got outscored by 36 points.
I'm pretty sure Wisconsin once won a BTT game while only scoring about 36 points.
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Northwestern scored two more points than Indiana and seven more points than Michigan today but unfortunately for the Wildcats they were not playing the Hoosiers or the Wolverines and they got outscored by 36 points.
I'm pretty sure Wisconsin once won a BTT game while only scoring about 36 points.
That was a loss, to Penn State, if memory serves.
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Witness to big ten refs in Person.
.. wow.
There is no such thing. MBB refs are not affiliated by conference anymore.
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Good reminder.
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That was a loss, to Penn State, if memory serves.
Oh, I thought the winner was under 40 but I'm not sure.
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There is no such thing. MBB refs are not affiliated by conference anymore.
They never have been
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I wonder if this is the worst session to get tickets to in Big Ten tournament history. You have two teams who generally make the tournament, who are in, but are not going to win the tournament, and I'm guessing their fans have not traveled well, against two teams who have to win the tournament to get in. Everything about this game has convinced me that best case scenario is we lose to Wisconsin tomorrow
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At least the refs are letting them play. Maryland in the single bonus, MSU not even there, with under 30 seconds left. Way to recognize nobody wants to be here.
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I wonder if this is the worst session to get tickets to in Big Ten tournament history. You have two teams who generally make the tournament, who are in, but are not going to win the tournament, and I'm guessing their fans have not traveled well, against two teams who have to win the tournament to get in. Everything about this game has convinced me that best case scenario is we lose to Wisconsin tomorrow
I hadn't thought through that this applied to MSU/UMD as well. So true for both games. I can't imagine any tOSU or MSU fans being excited about this kinda meh season and as you pointed out both teams are in even if they lose tonight so it isn't like you have the excitement of being on the bubble and needing a win or two to get in.
Fans like you and I realize that a few wins keeps them away from the difficult 7/10 and VERY difficult 8/9 lines but that is too nuanced for most fans.
Then Maryland and Penn State fans have nothing to be excited about because their only path to the big dance is to win today . . . and Friday . . . and Saturday . . . and Sunday which is basically hopeless.
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Didn't think much of them not calling that intentional foul when MSU was up 14. But MSU didn't score off it, and Maryland scored the next 5.
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Purdue has 6 losses this year. 5 of the 6 are road losses...
I saw at H&R what happened to every single one of teams after beating Purdue at home...
Lose at Rutgers, who then loses at Seton Hall (63-77)
Lose at IU, who then loses to Michigan (80-62)
Lose bad at Michigan, who then loses to OSU (68-57)
Lose at MSU, who then loses at Michigan (70-87)
Lose at Wisconsin, who then loses to Nebraska (74-73)
Seems like these teams gave Purdue their best shot--and left nothing in the tank...
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The sooner I don't have to watch this MSU team, the better
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Purdue has 6 losses this year. 5 of the 6 are road losses...
I saw at H&R what happened to every single one of teams after beating Purdue at home...
Seems like these teams gave Purdue their best shot--and left nothing in the tank...
Also, Purdue plays less defense than anyone else sans Nebraska, in the Big Ten
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So who and why is this #1 on Michigan so hated? I did see his douchy 3pt taunt and getting Td up for demanding an 'and 1' call. Is he known for other stuff? He seemed to get booed more than Juwan at the game today.
Keep in mind I haven't watched much of college hoops all year.
Even as an M fan, I think he’s sort of douchey. Some guys just give off that vibe. I also think he runs his mouth but often doesn’t show up in key moments.
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https://twitter.com/kylebaustin/status/1502112697181163522?t=EKkw06n8gsVpvcpRCEaUeA&s=19
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Fsn1 w the old nba on NBC jingle during its telecast. Hmm, did not know that.
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Fsn1 w the old nba on NBC jingle during its telecast. Hmm, did not know that.
It's been like 3 years now. I think they missed the mark. It's a great tune, but in a nostalgic NBA way. Having it played during random midweek BTN games, meh.
I do wish in general, stations would return to having built-in music. I can still hear the old ABC or ESPN college football music and no what I'm watching. CBS seems to be the one broadcaster that sort of sticks to it
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Never mind, go get Beilein
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Never mind, go get Beilein
Lol, buckeyes had 8 guys to play. Trying to remember the last time a team had this amount of injuries - nothing comes to mind.
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My predictions:
- Penn State over #6 Ohio State
I've gotten a lot wrong so far but I know my team.
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Lol, buckeyes had 8 guys to play. Trying to remember the last time a team had this amount of injuries - nothing comes to mind.
Minnesota had five active players yesterday.
Ohio State has two first round 2022 NBA Draft picks, fully healthy. I'm guessing that is at least tied for most in the Big Ten. I would love to have that amount of NBA ready talent
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Minnesota had five active players yesterday.
Ohio State has two first round 2022 NBA Draft picks, fully healthy. I'm guessing that is at least tied for most in the Big Ten. I would love to have that amount of NBA ready talent
Minny finished dead last. And MSU has more talent than OSU, right now. Good lord we have Joey Brunk as our third option on offense.
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Minnesota had five active players yesterday.
Ohio State has two first round 2022 NBA Draft picks, fully healthy. I'm guessing that is at least tied for most in the Big Ten. I would love to have that amount of NBA ready talent
Didn't they play a sixth guy for a little.
In either case, Holtmann has had quite a talent for taking the wind out of the sails.
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Minny finished dead last. And MSU has more talent than OSU, right now. Good lord we have Joey Brunk as our third option on offense.
Joey Brunk will play as much in the NBA next year as anyone on MSUs roster. Izzo is getting killed for what a disaster the 2018 class was. Holtmann can't beat Maryland, Nebraska or PSU with 2 guys who will be first round NBA picks in a couple months. I wouldn't fire him, but if you could get Beilein, that would change my mind.
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Joey Brunk will play as much in the NBA next year as anyone on MSUs roster. Izzo is getting killed for what a disaster the 2018 class was. Holtmann can't beat Maryland, Nebraska or PSU with 2 guys who will be first round NBA picks in a couple months. I wouldn't fire him, but if you could get Beilein, that would change my mind.
I said before that it is a tough spot for the tOSU AD. Holtmann isn't so bad as to clearly need fired but he also clearly isn't achieving at the level tOSU should expect. The Buckeyes haven't won a league title or been to the second weekend of the Tournament in a decade. The first of those things did not change this year and it would now take a near miracle to change the second since the Buckeyes will probably be a #7 or #8 seed so if they win their first game (doubtful) they'll be playing a #1 or #2 seed in the second round.
Holtmann's teams are consistently pretty good but there are no signs of improvement and, as a fan, if we aren't making the S16 or AT LEAST threatening to win a regular season league title then as far as I am concerned we have nothing to lose because if we aren't doing one of those two things then I really don't care.
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Joey Brunk will play as much in the NBA next year as anyone on MSUs roster. Izzo is getting killed for what a disaster the 2018 class was. Holtmann can't beat Maryland, Nebraska or PSU with 2 guys who will be first round NBA picks in a couple months. I wouldn't fire him, but if you could get Beilein, that would change my mind.
If that class was better, wouldn’t it be contributing less because more guys went pro? (To be fair, I assume all big classes will be a mess on the fringes)
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Joey Brunk will play as much in the NBA next year as anyone on MSUs roster. Izzo is getting killed for what a disaster the 2018 class was. Holtmann can't beat Maryland, Nebraska or PSU with 2 guys who will be first round NBA picks in a couple months. I wouldn't fire him, but if you could get Beilein, that would change my mind.
Calipari had two players drafted on a team that went 9-16. This idea that you can win games with one or two guys never works out. Nebraska has a first round draft pick, too. If you are forced to play guys 10-12 on your roster heavy minutes, I'm not sure why anyone would be surprised that it doesn't look that great.
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I said before that it is a tough spot for the tOSU AD. Holtmann isn't so bad as to clearly need fired but he also clearly isn't achieving at the level tOSU should expect. The Buckeyes haven't won a league title or been to the second weekend of the Tournament in a decade. The first of those things did not change this year and it would now take a near miracle to change the second since the Buckeyes will probably be a #7 or #8 seed so if they win their first game (doubtful) they'll be playing a #1 or #2 seed in the second round.
Holtmann's teams are consistently pretty good but there are no signs of improvement and, as a fan, if we aren't making the S16 or AT LEAST threatening to win a regular season league title then as far as I am concerned we have nothing to lose because if we aren't doing one of those two things then I really don't care.
I mean...I have to disagree again. Yes, the actual results aren't great. But the recruiting has only gotten better. We now have the NBA sniffing around, which wasn't a thing for most of the past decade. He has a strong class coming in. I'm resigned to the fact that Branham is probably gone. I guess you can say that's poor coaching - would you rather like Juwan Howard, who might get two higher rated recruits back because they weren't that good?
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I can't believe that OSU is still projected to make the tournament. That's ridiculous.
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They never have been
There was a period in the 1980's, right? It was not a long time.
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Today's winners:
Rutgers
Indiana
Penn State
Michigan State.
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I mean...I have to disagree again. Yes, the actual results aren't great. But the recruiting has only gotten better. We now have the NBA sniffing around, which wasn't a thing for most of the past decade. He has a strong class coming in. I'm resigned to the fact that Branham is probably gone. I guess you can say that's poor coaching - would you rather like Juwan Howard, who might get two higher rated recruits back because they weren't that good?
No, what I'd rather is:
- To win B1G titles, or at least compete for them. Other than his first year (Matta's guys) he hasn't been closer than three games out.
- Make the second weekend of the Tournament. Crickets.
I'm not saying he is terrible and I *HOPE* you are right and we see improved talent which leads to improved results but if the last four years repeat themselves for the next four it will have been a mistake to have allowed that to happen.
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It’s my fault. I promised I wouldn’t watch them again since every time I watch them they’ve looked horrible but I turned on the TV last night middle eight second half and I watch them quickly lose their lead and look horrible again
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No, what I'd rather is:
- To win B1G titles, or at least compete for them. Other than his first year (Matta's guys) he hasn't been closer than three games out.
- Make the second weekend of the Tournament. Crickets.
I'm not saying he is terrible and I *HOPE* you are right and we see improved talent which leads to improved results but if the last four years repeat themselves for the next four it will have been a mistake to have allowed that to happen.
Sure, we all want that. I just think the odds of getting a better coach are slim and a worse coach very high.
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I can't believe that OSU is still projected to make the tournament. That's ridiculous.
As the kids would say, wut?
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My goal for the Buckeyes Basketball team each year is to make the NCAA tournament and not get upset.
Holtman hasn't done that yet.
This years Buckeyes always seem to rise up at odd times, but the norm is to crash in the last 5 minutes of a game. I'm assuming an early flame out in the again this year.
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My goal for the Buckeyes Basketball team each year is to make the NCAA tournament and not get upset.
Holtman hasn't done that yet.
This years Buckeyes always seem to rise up at odd times, but the norm is to crash in the last 5 minutes of a game. I'm assuming an early flame out in the again this year.
Wait, what hasn’t he done?
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My goal for the Buckeyes Basketball team each year is to make the NCAA tournament and not get upset.
Holtman hasn't done that yet.
This years Buckeyes always seem to rise up at odd times, but the norm is to crash in the last 5 minutes of a game. I'm assuming an early flame out in the again this year.
And given his track record there is no reason to expect anything more.
Sure, we all want that. I just think the odds of getting a better coach are slim and a worse coach very high.
Holtmann's teams are performing at a level that is no better than tOSU's longterm average.
I personally came to the conclusion a long time ago that hiring a coach is basically a crap-shoot but there us a thumb on the scale for a school like tOSU. The thumb on the scale is that we are unlikely to lose a guy to a bigger fish because we're a pretty big fish. Ohio State can pay top dollar so if we ever get a great coach we can make him one of if not the highest paid nationally. Thus, if we get a worse one we'll fire him in 3-5 years and try again. Rinse/repeat until you get it right then pay him a LOT of cash and keep him for a LONG time.
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Wait, what hasn’t he done?
- Seriously contended for a league title: The only time he finished within one game of a league title was 2017/2018, his first year, with Matta's players. Since then the Buckeyes have finished three, three, three-and-a-half, and eight games out of first place.
- Gotten to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament: His first two years he went 1-1 each year, his third year the whole thing was cancelled due to COVID, last year the team got embarrassed in a 2/15 upset and they are unlikely to win even one let alone two games this year.
If you aren't contending for league titles or getting out of the first weekend of the NCAA then my view is that you basically have noting to lose because I could care less about the difference between 12-8 or 11-9 and being a truly bad team. Either way you didn't do the things that I care about:
- contend for league titles, and
- make it to the second weekend of the NCAA.
FWIW:
- Ohio State is tied for 3rd/4th in league titles. The Buckeyes and Badgers have 20 each while IU (22) and PU (24) have more.
- Ohio State is 5th in the league in NCAA Appearances with 30.
- Ohio State is tied for 4th/5th in the league with 14 S16's.
- Ohio State is tied for 1st/2nd in the league with 10 F4's.
- Ohio State is tied for 3rd/4th/5th/6th in the league with 1 NC.
Long-term tOSU is one of the better programs in the league. In the last five years they have been AT BEST equal to that.
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- Seriously contended for a league title: The only time he finished within one game of a league title was 2017/2018, his first year, with Matta's players. Since then the Buckeyes have finished three, three, three-and-a-half, and eight games out of first place.
- Gotten to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament: His first two years he went 1-1 each year, his third year the whole thing was cancelled due to COVID, last year the team got embarrassed in a 2/15 upset and they are unlikely to win even one let alone two games this year.
Medina. You did not write that post. I have already read these facts. In several of your long posts. I am extremely aware of those two facts. I promise.
But that post that you did not write referred to upsets. And Holtmann, for his many flaws, has taken all of one NCAA tournament upset. That was where I was confused.
Personally, I don't care what happens to him. Fire him. Whatever. He has you in the golden cage of having relatively good, but not better than that, basketball teams. Sorry about that.
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Wait, what hasn’t he done?
Holtman hasn't had a successful Basketball season according to my personal definition. (Make NCAA tournament and then not get upset in the tournament ie. play to your seeding.)
He has been upset every year they have gone.
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Holtman hasn't had a successful Basketball season according to my personal definition. (Make NCAA tournament and then not get upset in the tournament ie. play to your seeding.)
He has been upset every year they have gone.
Don't think that is true. His first year they were a five seed and got bounced by a four seed. His second season they were an 11 seed and got clubbed by Houston, a three seed. The only upset was last year.
Also, you have a pretty fair starting five with just the guys that were out last night for them.
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Holtman hasn't had a successful Basketball season according to my personal definition. (Make NCAA tournament and then not get upset in the tournament ie. play to your seeding.)
He has been upset every year they have gone.
Not true. In 2018, they were a #5, beat the 12 in the R64, and then lost to #4 Gonzaga in the R32. In 2019, they were an #11, they upset the #6 in the R64, and then were beat by the #3 in the R32.
So they played according to seed in 2018, above seed in 2019, and below seed in 2021.
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I personally came to the conclusion a long time ago that hiring a coach is basically a crap-shoot but there us a thumb on the scale for a school like tOSU. The thumb on the scale is that we are unlikely to lose a guy to a bigger fish because we're a pretty big fish. Ohio State can pay top dollar so if we ever get a great coach we can make him one of if not the highest paid nationally. Thus, if we get a worse one we'll fire him in 3-5 years and try again. Rinse/repeat until you get it right then pay him a LOT of cash and keep him for a LONG time.
Oh I disagree with that. For one, we have already lost a good coach in Gary Williams leaving for Maryland. My biggest fear with Holtmann is his teams start rolling and we lose him to Kentucky. OSU is not a first tier basketball school by any definition and likely never will be. They do have strong resources, but they have a crappy arena and tepid fan support. It's not a destination job, which doesn't mean someone wouldn't stay there, but I'd say there's a lot of guys who would jump to the top tiers of the world if they had a chance.
Edit to add: Also hard to say the NIL effect here. Programs with strong NIL efforts will almost certainly be better at getting and retaining players. OSU basketball being very much a second fiddle would have an effect there, but to what extent I have no idea relative to other programs.
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Holtman hasn't had a successful Basketball season according to my personal definition. (Make NCAA tournament and then not get upset in the tournament ie. play to your seeding.)
He has been upset every year they have gone.
As was said by others, only upset once, which led to my confusion and the question.
It’s interesting because at a point, I personally started moving away from the upset worry, simply because if you have positive seeds and tend to feel the good teams, it becomes harder and harder not to get upset unless you make the final four. Basically, almost all of the upset-ability is contained within being a bad seed.
But that was a journey I had to go on because UW kept getting good seeds and made it every damn year
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As was said by others, only upset once, which led to my confusion and the question.
It’s interesting because at a point, I personally started moving away from the upset worry, simply because if you have positive seeds and tend to feel the good teams, it becomes harder and harder not to get upset unless you make the final four. Basically, almost all of the upset-ability is contained within being a bad seed.
But that was a journey I had to go on because UW kept getting good seeds and made it every damn year
Yeah, same for me... I understand that upsets occur, but upsets in the first round when you're a 5 or better are embarrassing, and get progressively more embarrassing the better your own seed. Those are the ones that I hate. Purdue lost as a 4 to North Texas last year, and as a 5 to UALR back in 2016. Those are the ones that sting. But it happens.
The question is whether Holtmann had built enough goodwill to survive a few of those? For Painter, his teams have been to the NCAAT 12 times, he's been bounced in the first round 3 of those times, and only two were upsets; the other Purdue was the #9 and lost to the #8.
Purdue has played to seed in 2008, 2010, 2015, and 2017.
Purdue has technically played above seed in 2007 (#9 beat #8 in R64 before losing to #1 in R32), 2009 (#5 beat #4 in R32 before losing to #1 in S16), 2012 (#10 beat #7 in R64 before losing to #2 in R32), and 2019 (#3 beat #2 in S16 before losing to #1 in E8).
Purdue played well below seed in 2011 (#3 losing to #11 in R32), 2016 (#5 losing to #12 in R64) and 2021 (#4 losing to #13 in R64). Technically they played below seed in 2018 (#2 lost to #3 in S16), but that was the year that Isaac Haas was injured in the R64, so I believe we were no longer really a #2 after that injury.
I'd say playing to seed 1/3 of the time, above seed 1/3 of the time, and below seed 1/3 of the time, is certainly not terrible. And that's what Holtmann has done, albeit in very limited sample size.
I certainly wouldn't look at Holtmann's NCAAT history as justify firing him. Now, if you believe that he's got the trajectory of the program headed the wrong direction, as evidenced by falling further and further back in B1G regular season standings, it's a different story. In that case, his NCAAT certainly hasn't been enough to justify keeping him either.
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As the kids would say, wut?
Should be in the NIT.
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Yeah, same for me... I understand that upsets occur, but upsets in the first round when you're a 5 or better are embarrassing, and get progressively more embarrassing the better your own seed. Those are the ones that I hate. Purdue lost as a 4 to North Texas last year, and as a 5 to UALR back in 2016. Those are the ones that sting. But it happens.
I feel that. The weird ones are the later ones, when you catch an 8 in the Elite 8 or 11 in the Sweet 16. And then you played seed, but it still feels like a highly missed chance.
Interestingly, UW had a very odd 5-12 loss a few years back. They had closed relatively well, even as the offense fell off a cliff. Their best offensive player (Happ) was scuffling, and their decent to good shooters kept missing 3s. And then they catch this 12 in Oregon, which was by most measures not so good, but had come together at the right time and rolled out four top-50 quality recruits who were all playing like it (the worst of their top five guys was the No. 129 recruit in the country). In the moment, that sucked, but sucks less so as time passes.
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Should be in the NIT.
I mean, in terms of how they feel or make folks feel, sure, I guess?
But they put teams in based on some level of accomplishments, and on that front, OSU is decidedly good enough. They're basically high end middle class, which gets in out of the Power 5, unless the conference does the Pac-12 thing or what it did in 2018.
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Don't think that is true. His first year they were a five seed and got bounced by a four seed. His second season they were an 11 seed and got clubbed by Houston, a three seed. The only upset was last year.
Also, you have a pretty fair starting five with just the guys that were out last night for them.
Sorry, I was wrong. I got those reversed in my head. (Thinking OSU was the 4, and 3 seeds and lost to a 5 and 11.)
So, according to how I define success; in 4 years he has had 2 successful, one canceled, and horrible flub years.
Heres to hoping to not get upset in the tourney.
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3/11 Update
Not doing a true bracket at this point, but a daily update with the seeds. You can read this as a true snake, so, if you go straight down a line, that would be a region, if they didn't adjust to avoid rematches, and regional considerations, with auto-bids in bold
(number in parenthesis indicates moving up or down a seed line, or new)
NCAA
- Auburn, Baylor, Arizona, Kentucky
- Duke, Tennessee, Gonzaga, Kansas
- Texas Tech, PURDUE, Villanova, UCLA (+1)
- ILLINOIS, Arkansas, WISCONSIN, Houston (-1)
- Providence, North Carolina (+1), Connecticut (+2), Saint Mary's
- Murray State (-1), IOWA, Texas (-1), LSU
- USC, Colorado State, Alabama (-2), MICHIGAN STATE (+1)
- OHIO STATE (-1), Seton Hall, San Diego State (+1), TCU (+1)
- Boise State, Iowa State (-1), Davidson, Loyola(Chi) (+1)
- Notre Dame, MICHIGAN (-2), San Francisco, Oklahoma (+2)
- Miami, Marquette (-1), Memphis, Wake Forest
- VCU/SMU (-1), Creighton/Virginia Tech (N), South Dakota State, North Texas
- Chattanooga, Vermont, Toledo, NM State
- Saint Peter's (+1), Montana State, Longwood, Princeton
- Norfolk State, Delaware, Georgia State, Colgate (+1)
- Jacksonville State, UC Santa Barbara (N), Bryant/Texas Southern, Nicholls State/Wright State
NCAA Bid Changes
- Virginia Tech replaces Florida
- UC Santa Barbara replaces UC Irvine as Big West AQ
NIT
- INDIANA, Texas A&M (+1), Wyoming, Florida (N)
- Xavier, RUTGERS, Dayton, BYU (-1)
- Mississippi State (+1), Colorado (+2), Virginia, UAB, St. Bonaventure
- South Carolina (-1), West Virginia, Saint Louis, Belmont
- Vanderbilt, Virginia (-2), Kansas State, St. John's
- MARYLAND (+1), Santa Clara, Drake, Oregon (-1), Iona
- Richmond (N), Oregon (-1), Towson, Northern Iowa
- Alcorn State, Cleveland State, Long Beach State, Texas State
NIT Bid Changes
- Richmond replaces NORTHWESTERN
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Celebrating drawing a charge call should be an automatic technical
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Good for IU. A little less good for Purdue if it’s trying to bump its seed
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Indiana should be in now, and Texas A&M maybe as well.
Bubble teams could really use a Virginia Tech loss tonight
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Today's winners:
Rutgers
Indiana
Penn State
Michigan State.
One down.
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CUSA possibly just became a two bid league now in one of the ugliest games you'll ever see.
We'll see if North Texas still gets an at large bid
Bad afternoon for bubble teams whose season was already over
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Houston was able to erase an 8 point deficit to beat Cincinnati, or the AAC would be a bid stealer if anyone except Memphis won
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Can Fran ever just be not angry about something?
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That was too much Fran face
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Does the winner of the Arkansas-A&M SEC semi get the SWC Championship title?
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They should fly over to Jerry World to place this or the Mavs arena.
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CUSA possibly just became a two bid league now in one of the ugliest games you'll ever see.
We'll see if North Texas still gets an at large bid
Bad afternoon for bubble teams whose season was already over
down to the wire for the presumptive favorite spot in that league‘s title game.
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He has you in the golden cage of having relatively good, but not better than that, basketball teams. Sorry about that.
This, exactly this. He isn't a terrible coach. If I were tOSU's AD this would be a very tough situation. His teams aren't terrible. They are good but not better than that so here we are.
If tOSU had missed the last two tournaments it would be an easy decision to fire him.
If tOSU had any combination of two S16's/league titles in his tenure it would be an easy decision to extend his contract and give him a raise.
Instead we are in this limbo land. He isn't performing poorly enough to fire him nor good enough to extend him. So now what?
If I were tOSU's AD I'd just not extend and when his contract comes up I'd offer no raise and a short extension. If he balked I'd wish him the best and point to the door. Similarly if, say Kentucky made him an offer and he asked me to match I'd wish him good luck with the Wildcats.
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Heres to hoping to not get upset in the tourney.
Well, good news! We probably aren't going to be seeded high enough to need to worry about getting upset.
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But that was a journey I had to go on because UW kept getting good seeds and made it every damn year
I had to make this journey too. I used to think it was "failure" to lose as a higher seed. By that measure most P5 teams fail annually.
I think the fair way to measure tournament performance is to compare to what teams at a particular seed usually accomplish. I wouldn't mind tOSU's #2 seed upset loss to #15 last year so much if it were offset by a #5 seed or #11 seed S16 appearance.
The problem, of course, is that the only offset is an upset win in a 6/11 game.
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This is quite bad basketball
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That half court heave was not one of the 10 ugliest shots that was attempted during that half
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This, exactly this. He isn't a terrible coach. If I were tOSU's AD this would be a very tough situation. His teams aren't terrible. They are good but not better than that so here we are.
If tOSU had missed the last two tournaments it would be an easy decision to fire him.
If tOSU had any combination of two S16's/league titles in his tenure it would be an easy decision to extend his contract and give him a raise.
Instead we are in this limbo land. He isn't performing poorly enough to fire him nor good enough to extend him. So now what?
If I were tOSU's AD I'd just not extend and when his contract comes up I'd offer no raise and a short extension. If he balked I'd wish him the best and point to the door. Similarly if, say Kentucky made him an offer and he asked me to match I'd wish him good luck with the Wildcats.
I will continue the drumbeat that conference titles and tourney advancement are fun and great, they are awful measures for judging the coach. The team was top 15 the last two years and likely would have been again this year if not for some rotten injury luck. That's not something you throw away willingly if you want to keep your job.
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As soon as Hall missed both FTs to push it to 8, and UW came down at hit a 3, you know it is another Wisconsin close game victory
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If Tyson Walker had Max Christie's confidence, he'd be an all-Big Ten player
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If MSU could make a FT this would already be over. Unbelievable
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71% and 82% FT shooters get a combined 1 of 6 points at the line.
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Wisconsin can't feel much better about their FT shooting.
Don't let the door hit you on the way out Grayson Davison
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Maybe step out on the only guy for Wisconsin who has made a shot in the past 5 minutes?
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Huh, and the top guy from that 2018 class gets them the win. Quite a day.
Also, man did UW's free throw shooters pick a day to all miss a bushel of important ones. Ugh.
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Huh, and the top guy from that 2018 class gets them the win. Quite a day.
Also, man did UW's free throw shooters pick a day to all miss a bushel of important ones. Ugh.
And nice of Brad Davison to have a final night like this after playing 2nd fiddle to, I assumed Michael Finlney?, in his class
Above I complained about a 71% and 82% FT shooters leaving 5 of 6 points open at the line in the final minutes, and then Wisconsin matched them. In conference play, MSU is #1 in the Big Ten in 3pt shooting, and Wisconsin is dead last. If you told me Wisconsin essentially shot their average, and MSU was 30% below, I would have assumed a 20 point loss. Wisconsin was bad at the line, got nothing inside, and MSU turned the ball over the same number of times (7) as they did in the final 3 minutes yesterday
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And nice of Brad Davison to have a final night like this after playing 2nd fiddle to, I assumed Michael Finlney?, in his class
Second-to-last at least, I hope. Catching a push off elbow to the nads felt about right.
Now, now, he's younger than Finley. Dick Bennett had him as a commit off that Final Four, but Bo had to hold him through the coaching change.
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There is no way David was 100%, so maybe resting up for the real tourney is a hidden blessing.
I also think MSU is a bad matchup for Wahl, because we have waves of guys who are too unathletic to be 3s, but slightly undersized 4s, who are just worse versions of him. But we have like 5 of them to keep subbing it.
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Also bummed I missed Johnny Davis flashing L signs at a team he lost 2 of 3 meetings to this year after the game
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Get yourself a hype man like Purdue has for every single broadcast in Robbie Hummel
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Oh I disagree with that. For one, we have already lost a good coach in Gary Williams leaving for Maryland. My biggest fear with Holtmann is his teams start rolling and we lose him to Kentucky. OSU is not a first tier basketball school by any definition and likely never will be. They do have strong resources, but they have a crappy arena and tepid fan support. It's not a destination job, which doesn't mean someone wouldn't stay there, but I'd say there's a lot of guys who would jump to the top tiers of the world if they had a chance.
Gary Williams played his college ball at Maryland and went home when called.
I get that this isn't football and we aren't tier-1, but we aren't very far off.
Here is a list of F4 appearances by program. Ohio State is tied with MSU for 6th/7th with 10 (# program):
- 20 UNC
- 18 UCLA
- 17 Kentucky
- 16 Dook
- 15 Kansas
- 10 Michigan State
- 10 Ohio State
- 8 Indiana
- 8 L'Ville
- 6 Arkansas
- 6 Cincy
- 6 Houston
- 6 Michigan
- 6 OkSU
- 6 Cuse
We are not quite as good in S16's but ere is a list of programs with the most S16 appearances (https://www.interbasket.net/news/most-sweet-16-appearances-in-ncaa-history-mens-teams/23346/). Ohio State is tied with Maryland for 18th/19th with 14. The top-8 have at least half-again as many as Ohio State but the others aren't all that far ahead of us (#, program, last):
- 44 Kentucky 2019
- 34 UCLA 2021
- 34 UNC 2019
- 31 DOOK 2019
- 31 Kansas 2018
- 24 L'Ville 2015
- 24 Cuse 2021
- 22 Indiana 2016
- 20 MSU 2019
- 19 Zona 2018
- 18 Villanova 2021
- 17 K State 2018
- 17 Notre Dame 2016
- 17 UCONN 2014
- 16 Michigan 2021
- 16 Marquette 2013
- 16 Utah 2015
- 14 Ohio State 2013
- 14 Maryland 2002
The top-5 on both lists are the same and those are the ONLY programs that I would consider to be clearly superior to Ohio State: Kentucky, UCLA, UNC, Dook, Kansas. Then there are 12 programs ahead of Ohio State in S16's but behind (or tied in the case of MSU) in F4's. Those 12 have an argument and some have a better argument than others but it is close enough that reasonable people can be on either side of those debates.
Then there is Maryland which has the same number of S16's but only two F4's (to tOSU's 10). Maryland is *MAYBE* equal to Ohio State. I'd argue that they are NOT simply because the bulk of their success occurred in one magical spurt under the aforementioned Gary Williams. He didn't do much in his first four years at Maryland (89/90 - 92/93) but then he went on an amazing run for 11 seasons during which he achieved:
- An NC, Maryland's only.
- Two F4's, Maryland's only.
- Seven S16's, half of Maryland's total.
- 11 straight NCAA Appearances, more than one-third of Maryland's total.
I don't think Maryland, as a program, is the equal of Ohio State because that one 11 year stretch accounts for so much of their total all-time accomplishments.
IMHO there is a CLEAR top-5 in BB and Ohio State is somewhere in the next tier of probably a couple dozen programs that are just as good as the top-tier once in a while but haven't been able to achieve the consistency that the top programs have.
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I will continue the drumbeat that conference titles and tourney advancement are fun and great, they are awful measures for judging the coach. The team was top 15 the last two years and likely would have been again this year if not for some rotten injury luck. That's not something you throw away willingly if you want to keep your job.
This is just silly. If you are not judging your coach by the performance of his teams on the court then there is nothing to judge him by.
I'll add that, to an extent, I get where you are coming from and, to an extent, I agree. The #2 seed loss in the first round doesn't *REALLY* bother me as a one-off thing. The home loss to a horrible Nebraska team doesn't really bother me as a one-off thing.
I'm a statistics guy. You are right to the extent that in a given game or a given season things go sideways. There hasn't been an undefeated team since I was in diapers because the better team doesn't win every game. By extension that also means that the better team doesn't always advance in the tournament and the best team doesn't always win the league.
That said, time balances these things out. If Ohio State has the best team in the B1G next year they will not necessarily win the league but if they are in the top two or three for the next four years straight they are bound to win a league title in there somewhere. Here is what Holtmann's teams have done at Ohio State:
- 25-9/15-3, tied for 2nd/3rd in the B1G, one game out of first. Two seed in the BTT, lost their opener. Five seed in the NCAA, beat #12, lost to #4.
- 20-15/8-12, tied for 8th/9th in the B1G, eight games out of first. Eight seed in the BTT, beat #9 and lost to #1. Eleven seed in the NCAA, beat #6, lost to #3.
- 21-10/11-9, tied for 5th/6th/7th/8th in the B1G, three games out of first. Seven seed in the BTT, BTT and NCAA cancelled.
- 21-10/12-8, 5th in the B1G, three-and-a-half games out of first. Five seed in the BTT, made it to the CG and lost. Two seed in the NCAA, lost to #15.
- 19-11/12-8 (so far), tied for 4th/5th/6th in the B1G, three games out of first. Six seed in the BTT, lost to #11. NCAA TBD but will likely be an 8/9 seed and see another first weekend exit.
We are paying Holtmann MILLIONS of dollars a year to coach BB and we haven't finished within three games of the B1G Title since his first year (Matta's recruits). We haven't been to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament in a decade.
Tournament performance relative to seed:
The data-set is pretty limited here with just three completed tournaments but Holtmann's teams have been a #5 seed, a #11 seed, and a #2 seed. Those seeds, on average, will achieve:
- 1.95 first round wins. Holtmann's teams have two so he is up a little.
- 1.14 S16 appearances. Holtmann's teams have ZERO so he is way down here.
- 0.58 E8 appearances. Holtmann's teams have ZERO so he is down here but could catch up in one year.
- 0.28 F4 appearances. Holtmann's teams have ZEOR so he is down here but it rounds to zero anyway.
- 0.10 NC appearances. Holtmann's teams have ZERO so he is down but not by much.
- 0.03 NC's. Holtmann's teams have ZERO so he is down but not by much.
Note on the above:
I don't put too much stock in this because the coach is responsible for the season which generates the seed. If he has a crappy season (2018-19) and gets a low seed (#11) but then pulls off an upset the upset is nice but he is also responsible for getting the low seed due to the crappy season in the first place. Conversely if he has a nice season (2020-21) and gets a high seed but then gets upset the upset sucks but he is also responsible for getting the high seed due to the nice season in the first place.
The loss as a #2 seed last year was Holtmann's only first round NCAA loss so far and my point about statistics is basically that if you simply traded 2021's and 2019's Tournament performances such that his teams went 1-1 as a #2 seed and 0-1 as a #11 it looks more like what you would expect. Ie, the first round loss as a #2 seed sucked but the first round win as a #11 seed was nice and they somewhat cancel out so who cares.
That first round loss as a #2 seed would/will be a lot easier of a pill to swallow if his #5 seed in 2018 or his #11 seed in 2019 or his #8/9 seed this year had made/makes it to the S16.
That, however, is what we have NOT seen. We haven't seen a Holtmann team win the B1G or make it to the second weekend of the NCAA. I'm not asking for that EVERY year but we are talking about a guy who has now had five attempts (granted only three wrt the NCAA since 2020 was cancelled and 2022 hasn't happened yet).
My view, and Ohio State's historical averages back this up, is that it is NOT unreasonable for the AD at Ohio State to expect better. We need to see league titles and/or S16 appearances and if those continually fail to materialize for whatever reason then a change needs to be made.
I'm not exactly advocating for a change to be made RIGHT NOW, but Holtmann's seat should be warm. You can't collect MILLIONS of dollars a year to coach at a program with Ohio State's resources, never win a league title, never get out of the first weekend of the NCAA, and expect to keep your job indefinitely.
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I think Iowa is on another level right now, and Id be a little surprised if they don't win the BTT, but I don't think I'd ever be happier than MSU doesn't hang BTT banners than for this year, if they pull it out.
For all of Izzos accomplishments, he's never won a random BTT. But thinking bout it has anyone? Seems like we've never had a team like Oregon State or Georgetown last year, or Georgia a decade ago, to pull out a BTT win when they needed it to get in. Illinois made it to the title game as the last place team in one of the first years, but who is the worst team to actually win it? The plane crash Michigan team?
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This is just silly. If you are not judging your coach by the performance of his teams on the court then there is nothing to judge him by.
Well, we are both judging the program by performance. I'm saying it's better to look at the FancyStats and you are saying look at the results. Which I get, the results are what we want. I'm just saying when you have a coach getting good players and consistently putting out good teams, which Holtmann is, you give him the benefit of the doubt and don't run him off based on the results of a handful of games each season, which is what we are talking about with the tourney and the few games out of first place.
The other thing is the B1G is ridiculously good and deep right now. It was easily its weakest year his first season, which is probably a lot more reason why that was his best finish in conference as opposed to Matta's guys. It certainly wasn't his best team.
In any event, feels like just repeating ourselves. Going forward, I would be interested to see how the team improves. The defense has sucked the last two years. Jamari Wheeler was supposed to be a defensive whiz. His offense has improved, but he hasn't been particularly effective defensively. It is weird that his teams were pretty good defensively his first three seasons and then fell in a hole. I don't really know what that is about and if it doesn't improve, I'll be there with you. He also needs to finally hit on a point guard. The parade of experienced but average guards won't cut it. Of course, D.J. Carton had a mental breakdown, then fled to Siberia, er, Marquette, and is now floating around the G League. Basketball is a fickle sport.
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I think Iowa is on another level right now, and Id be a little surprised if they don't win the BTT, but I don't think I'd ever be happier than MSU doesn't hang BTT banners than for this year, if they pull it out.
For all of Izzos accomplishments, he's never won a random BTT. But thinking bout it has anyone? Seems like we've never had a team like Oregon State or Georgetown last year, or Georgia a decade ago, to pull out a BTT win when they needed it to get in. Illinois made it to the title game as the last place team in one of the first years, but who is the worst team to actually win it? The plane crash Michigan team?
Iowa looks really good. Some peak Fran.
Yeah I recall that Michigan team, can't really recall other teams that made a desperate run. We could possibly get a Indiana-MSU desperate hours special. Though MSU is definitely in, right? I haven't followed the bracketology a lot - do people think Rutgers is in?
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3/12 Update
Not doing a true bracket at this point, but a daily update with the seeds. You can read this as a true snake, so, if you go straight down a line, that would be a region, if they didn't adjust to avoid rematches, and regional considerations, with auto-bids in bold
(number in parenthesis indicates moving up or down a seed line, or new)
NCAA
- Kansas (+1), Baylor, Kentucky, Arizona
- Duke, Auburn (-1), Tennessee, Gonzaga
- PURDUE, Villanova, Texas Tech, UCLA
- WISCONSIN, ILLINOIS, Arkansas, Houston
- IOWA (+1), Connecticut, North Carolina, Saint Mary's
- Providence (-1), LSU, Murray State, Texas
- MICHIGAN STATE, USC, Alabama, Colorado State
- OHIO STATE, Seton Hall, San Diego State, TCU
- Iowa State, Davidson, Boise State, Memphis (+2)
- San Francisco, MICHIGAN, Creighton (+2), Loyola (Chi) (-1)
- Wake Forest, INDIANA (N), Texas A&M (N), Virginia Tech (+1)
- Notre Dame (-2)/Marquette (-1), Oklahoma (-2)/Miami (-1), South Dakota State, UAB (N)
- Chattanooga, Vermont, NM State, Princeton (+1)
- Saint Peter's, Montana State, Longwood, Kent State (N)
- Norfolk State, Delaware, Jacksonville State (+1), Georgia State
- CS Fullerton (N)/Texas A&M-CC (N), Texas Southern/Wright State, Bryant, Colgate (-1)
NCAA Bid Changes
- INDIANA and Texas A&M replace SMU and VCU
- UAB replaces North Texas as Conference USA AQ
- Kent State replaces Toledo as MAC AQ
- CS Fullerton replaces UC Santa Barbara as Big West AQ
- Texas A&M-CC replaces Nicholls State as Southland AQ
NIT
- SMU (N), North Texas (N), VCU (N), Wyoming
- RUTGERS, Dayton, BYU, Florida (-1)
- Xavier (-1), Mississippi State, Saint Louis (+1), Colorado
- South Carolina, Belmont, West Virginia, St. Bonaventure (-1)
- Vanderbilt, Virginia, Kansas State, Iona (+1)
- MARYLAND, Toledo (N), Drake, St. John's (-1)
- Richmond, Towson, Northern Iowa, Texas State (+1)
- Alcorn State, Nicholls State (N), Cleveland State, Long Beach State
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I think Iowa is on another level right now, and Id be a little surprised if they don't win the BTT, but I don't think I'd ever be happier than MSU doesn't hang BTT banners than for this year, if they pull it out.
For all of Izzos accomplishments, he's never won a random BTT. But thinking bout it has anyone? Seems like we've never had a team like Oregon State or Georgetown last year, or Georgia a decade ago, to pull out a BTT win when they needed it to get in. Illinois made it to the title game as the last place team in one of the first years, but who is the worst team to actually win it? The plane crash Michigan team?
That Michigan team was the lowest, an 8 seed that entered the tournament at 20-11. They were a 5 the next year and won. Only other one lower than a 4 was Iowa in the early 2000s.
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Yeah, and even that Michigan team felt safely in, they just sort of needed to win that first game to avoid a bad loss IIRC. Certainly didn't need to win the whole thing
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Saturday is when (anecdotally) it feels like the extra bye helps. I think it's negligible when one team is playing their first vs. a team playing their second, because the slight rest advantage seems to wash out with having some comfort in the arena.
But it seems like it's the third game in a row that starts to show the legs, so I think the bigger advantage is not Friday (unless you are playing a team that played Wednesday), but on Saturday
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For all of Izzos accomplishments, he's never won a random BTT. But thinking bout it has anyone? Seems like we've never had a team like Oregon State or Georgetown last year, or Georgia a decade ago, to pull out a BTT win when they needed it to get in. Illinois made it to the title game as the last place team in one of the first years, but who is the worst team to actually win it? The plane crash Michigan team?
2017 Michigan as a #8 was the lowest to win it and they really didn't get any help. Their path was 9/1/4/2.
2001 Iowa as a #6 was the next lowest but they had LOTS of help. Their path was 11/3/7/4.
2018 Michigan as a #5 was the only other team below a #4 to win. Their path was 12/4/1/3.
Lowest seeds to make the CG:
- #11 Illinois lost to #1 MSU by 17 in 1999.
- #10 Illinois lost to #1 Wisconsin by 13 in 2008.
- #9 Iowa lost by 17 to #2 tOSU in 2002.
- #8 Ohio State lost by 13 to #2 I'll in 2003.
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Painter has said that he thinks the team playing their second has a slight advantage over the team playing their first, at least early in the game. I think that makes sense.
I also agree that if one team is playing their third in a row and the other is playing their first, the fatigue factor probably overwhelms any advantage they might gain from familiarity/rhythm.
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Painter has said that he thinks the team playing their second has a slight advantage over the team playing their first, at least early in the game. I think that makes sense.
I also agree that if one team is playing their third in a row and the other is playing their first, the fatigue factor probably overwhelms any advantage they might gain from familiarity/rhythm.
I think 3rd over 2nd too. The 3rd game seems to be where the legs are just gone
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Now that's a game winner that reminds me of my game
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Bohanan didn't call glass
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Wow, Indiana deserved that one. Iowa keeps rolling
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The most surprising thing about Will Wade being fired for cause is that it happened five years after being caught on a wire tap discussing a payment offer to a recruit, and 3 years after said discussion was released publicly
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The downside to our two point guard lineup, is apparently the chance that both will twist their ankles on the same possession and go to the locker room
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Seems like a typical Boiler/Spartan rock fight so far...
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I was hoping this game would be more fun. MSU going up for Wisconsin games and then kind of dropping off has been an annoying thing that I feel like happened (it totally probably hasn't happened, and my annoyed brain has been selective)
As I write that, one of the big points missed a 2-footer and Bingham got swatted at the rim.
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A very personal downside of Wisconsin losing is that I've been using data processing from work to help cut the stress of game-watching. I got a lot done last night, and was hoping to finish a push with more games.
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Christie's legs are completely gone. Losing today is the best chance to have any chance next weekend.
And as a fan of basketball, the championship game being the best team vs. the hottest team, is pretty nice
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Stupid, stupid foul. You let Ivey get it, half is over. Instead you foul him, and now they get FTs
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Bullet dodged
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Man, if Bingham had been able to harness his consistency, especially as a long-range shooter, I'd be killing Izzo for not pick and popping Edey to death. But he hasn't, though he's pissed me off twice this year.
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https://twitter.com/Graham_Couch/status/1502761061384179713?t=7JOhgOqIDnUxopFeXGyjZQ&s=19
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Back to back threes once MSU cut it to 1 might be the dagger
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Sounds like Walker is going to miss some time.
Hopefully with a week of prep they get Akins ok to play on ball more
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Kent State suspended four guys ahead of their championship tilt with Akron because they sang "F*** Akron" on video. Not sure if they are overly sensitive or trying to drum up ratings.
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The most surprising thing about Will Wade being fired for cause is that it happened five years after being caught on a wire tap discussing a payment offer to a recruit, and 3 years after said discussion was released publicly
I respect his complete and utter disregard for any rules, and that LSU just went with it. He never stopped - OSU was recruiting some guy and he was down to OSU, Pitt, and Virginia, then LSU magically appeared in the last two weeks, probably with a large bag of recruiting points.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNqth80XMAU16kb?format=jpg&name=small)
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNqth80XMAU16kb?format=jpg&name=small)
That coach is good as hell. At 53, would be interested if he's a move up candidate, and to where it would be. Not a ton of big upgrade regional jobs. Maybe he just wants to run that league for a while.
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A little late to the party here. Was out all day yesterday doing Florida things.
Managed to watch the MSU/UW game on Friday though.
Trey McGowens was the MSU MVP.
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What are the keys to an Iowa win?
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A little late to the party here. Was out all day yesterday doing Florida things.
Managed to watch the MSU/UW game on Friday though.
Trey McGowens was the MSU MVP.
UW needed a game that was less sloppy to compensate there. They didn't deliver it, but fought and had two decent chances to win. An annoying one to say the least, if for no other reason because I would've liked to watch this team more.
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What are the keys to an Iowa win?
1. Play thermonuclear offense
2. Gamble a ton on defense, hope for some turnovers
3. Pray for missed 3s from Purdue.
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1. Play thermonuclear offense
2. Gamble a ton on defense, hope for some turnovers
3. Pray for missed 3s from Purdue.
I'd say trading 2 for 3 would be good for Iowa. I don't think they can stop Purdue's bigs, but if Iowa is hitting from deep, they might not need to.
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A little late to the party here. Was out all day yesterday doing Florida things.
Managed to watch the MSU/UW game on Friday though.
Trey McGowens was the MSU MVP.
Nah, it was Marcus Bingham.
Johnny Davis, for the second time in three games against MSU this year, certainly was not UWs MVP. But he kept shooting like he hoped to be. He also wasn't flashing Ls at the fans after the game this time
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Fun first half. I love watching Williams pass
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Ooh that was a hard fall
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This game rules
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hawks gonna pull it off
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Heck of a season for Iowa
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Congratulations Iowa! Great performance!
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a raise and contract extension for Fran
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2017 Michigan as a #8 was the lowest to win it and they really didn't get any help. Their path was 9/1/4/2.
2001 Iowa as a #6 was the next lowest but they had LOTS of help. Their path was 11/3/7/4.
2018 Michigan as a #5 was the only other team below a #4 to win. Their path was 12/4/1/3.
Lowest seeds to make the CG:
- #11 Illinois lost to #1 MSU by 17 in 1999.
- #10 Illinois lost to #1 Wisconsin by 13 in 2008.
- #9 Iowa lost by 17 to #2 tOSU in 2002.
- #8 Ohio State lost by 13 to #2 I'll in 2003.
We can now add #5 seed Iowa in 2022 with a path of 12/4/9/3.
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Well, we are both judging the program by performance. I'm saying it's better to look at the FancyStats and you are saying look at the results. Which I get, the results are what we want. I'm just saying when you have a coach getting good players and consistently putting out good teams, which Holtmann is, you give him the benefit of the doubt and don't run him off based on the results of a handful of games each season, which is what we are talking about with the tourney and the few games out of first place.
We are kinda saying the same things but let me ask a serious question to move this conversation forward:
For how long are you ok with good KenPom/Net/FancyStats (whatever) without league titles and/or S16+ in the NCAA?
Consider the comparison to Wisconsin this year. Most of the computers say that the Buckeyes are better and Wisconsin has just basically been lucky. Ok, suppose that UW beats two mediocre teams to get to the S16 then gets run off the court in the S16. Then, suppose that tOSU destroys their peer opponent in the first round then barely loses to a 1/2 seed in the second round.
In that scenario the computers would like tOSU's performance more and the Buckeyes would finish with a better KenPom/NET/FancyStats (whatever) ranking but Wisconsin would add another S16 to go with their league title.
My argument is that rankings from KenPom/NET/FancyStats are decidedly NOT the goal. They have their uses but they are a means not an end. The goals are league titles and S16+ NCAA performances.
In a given year or two or MAYBE three I'm ok with saying well computers say that tOSU was pretty good they just didn't win the league or make the second weekend basically because $h!t happens. I'm NOT willing to accept that indefinitely. At some point those good teams (per computers) need to actually accomplish something on actual basketball courts. If Holtmann can't do that then we need to try again and hope we find someone who can.
FWIW, I'm not completely convinced that we have reached that point yet but if we have yet another first weekend exit from the NCAA then we'll be getting close.
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Rutgers in!
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Rutgers in!
I think Rutgers being the play-in is a bad sign for Michigan.
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I think Rutgers being the play-in is a bad sign for Michigan.
Turned out not to be.
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Turned out not to be.
Wow!! Very favorable see in my opinion. Not sure they deserved it. Tough opening game for the Buckeyes as well.
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For how long are you ok with good KenPom/Net/FancyStats (whatever) without league titles and/or S16+ in the NCAA?
It depends. For context, Scott Drew is in his 19th season at Baylor. They have advanced past the second weekend four times and won the conference one time. But I think the school is pretty happy he is there. Basketball is a fickle sport and you don't just need a good coach, but also a lot of luck and a lot of stars aligning. Malaki Branham having a great season and likely headed to the pros isn't just a credit to him, it's a credit to Holtmann to have a freshman buy in and play so efficiently. But it also hurts next year's team a lot. That's not something you ding a coach for.
I wouldn't feel comfortable moving on until I'm reasonably sure what I have. The timing is weird but if he was a coach like Fran, I'd feel more comfortable moving on, because it feels like Fran's teams have a real cap because they never play great defense. But if they do round into form defensively and they are fielding good teams, you keep the coach. The risk of getting worse, or much worse, is much greater than the chance at getting better.
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Hoosiers get the play in game too
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Wisconsin catches a good shooting Colgate team, which was kinda bad to start the season and then went on a conference run. Second round is either LSU or Iowa State.
That means facing a very good defense and so-so offense if they dodge a first-round upset. Gonna be interested in how the Tigers either rally or mail it in without a coach.
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Times still uncertain
Tuesday: Indiana v. Wyoming (winner plays St. Mary's Thursday)
Wednesday: ND v. Rutgers (winner plays Bama Friday)
Thursday: Michigan v. Colorado State, Richmond v. Iowa
Firday: Yale v. Purdue, Colgate v. Wisconsin, Chattanooga v. Illinois, Loyola Chicago v. OSU, Davidson v. MSU
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Times still uncertain
Tuesday: Indiana v. Wyoming (winner plays St. Mary's Thursday)
Wednesday: ND v. Rutgers (winner plays Bama Friday)
Thursday: Michigan v. Colorado State, Richmond v. Iowa
Firday: Yale v. Purdue, Colgate v. Wisconsin, Chattanooga v. Illinois, Loyola Chicago v. OSU, Davidson v. MSU
I'd put money on Wisconsin in the evening unless there's a really strong TV pull. You'd want them in the evening to fill the building, though for reasons I don't understand, I can't quickly pull up who is in the other session.
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It's going to be fun losing in the opening round to Northwestern's little brother's little brother.
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I’ve already seen 4 major talking heads pick Iowa to the FF. Can’t remember a 5 seed getting this much love.
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It's going to be fun losing in the opening round to Northwestern's little brother's little brother.
It is a crappy draw. Loyola better in the fancystats than Michigan's opponent and six seed Colorado State. Still, that's life. One good thing is OSU won't be put off by Loyola's tempo. They are comfortable in a walk it up slowly type of game. Loyola strong defensively by the fancystats. OSU needs to get healthy - tough to see them winning against anyone missing five guys. Missing two guys, they have a shot. No word on Kyle Young, is dealing with something. He's been their third best player this season - would be nice to have back.
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I’ve already seen 4 major talking heads pick Iowa to the FF. Can’t remember a 5 seed getting this much love.
I like Iowa - their offense pls the Murry brothers make for matchup nightmares. Still not sure they have enough defensively, but hey, they are the top B1G team on KenPom.
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It's going to be fun losing in the opening round to Northwestern's little brother's little brother.
If the fancystats are right, OSU projects as a 1.5-2 point underdog.
No big guy like the last few years, however.
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I like Iowa - their offense pls the Murry brothers make for matchup nightmares. Still not sure they have enough defensively, but hey, they are the top B1G team on KenPom.
The major part of their late season surge is defense which could make them troublesome. With that said, Iowa hasnt seen the 2nd weekend since the Tom Davis era and I am not confident they can win more than 5 or 6 in a row. They depend to much on the outside shot and have no true big. Still I think they have a favorable draw
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If the fancystats are right, OSU projects as a 1.5-2 point underdog.
No big guy like the last few years, however.
The scores ap on my phone shows tOSU as a 1 point underdog. I think that is generous to the Buckeyes, they are ridiculously overseeeded as a #7.
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The scores ap on my phone shows tOSU as a 1 point underdog. I think that is generous to the Buckeyes, they are ridiculously overseeeded as a #7.
Ridiculously?
In what sense?
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Not a huge fan of the potential matchup with a Chris Beard team in R32... His style of play is not the best matchup for Purdue. We're more athletic than we were some of those years though...
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Welp, told my son if OSU wound up in Pittsburgh, I'd buy tickets
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Ridiculously?
In what sense?
It is mostly a time/injury issue. Right now they aren't a tournament quality team at all. By overall body of work this isn't out of line.
I'd probably have more recency bias than the committee so I'd have Rutgers higher and tOSU lower.
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Welp, told my son if OSU wound up in Pittsburgh, I'd buy tickets
I'd love to be wrong but I'm fairly confident that you and your son are going to be see the Buckeyes lose again.
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Welp, told my son if OSU wound up in Pittsburgh, I'd buy tickets
That's awesome! Getting those NCAA package tickets is pretty cool. Can watch them and Nova.
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Times are out:
Tuesday: 9:15, TruTv, #12 Indiana v. #12 Wyoming, (winner played #5 St. Mary's at 7:20 on Thursday)
Wednesday: 9:10, Trutv, #11 Rutgers v. #11 Notre Dame (winner plays #6 Alabama at 4:15 Friday)
Thursday
- #11 Michigan v. #6 Colorado State, 12:15, CBS
- #5 Iowa v. #12 Richmond, 3:10, truTV
Friday
- #7 Ohio State v. #10 Loyola Chicago, 12:15, CBS
- #3 Purdue v. #14 Yale, 2 pm, TBS
- #4 Illinois v. #13 Chattanooga, 6:50, TNT
- #7 Michigan State v. #10 Davidson, 9:40, CBS
- #3 Wisconsin v. #14 Colgate, 9:50, TBS
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How many sub-NIT tournaments are there?
I had heard of the CBI and the CIT, but what in the Hell is the Basketball Classic?
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNxnnCUVsAE9Si1?format=jpg&name=large)
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That's awesome! Getting those NCAA package tickets is pretty cool. Can watch them and Nova.
Worst case scenario we get to skip school to watch a full day of basketball
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So the final result is the following seeds:
- #3 Purdue, Wisconsin
- #4 Illinois
- #5 Iowa
- #7 Michigan State, Ohio State
- #11 Michigan, Rutgers (as a play-in)
- #12 Indiana (as a play-in)
Based on past history of those seeds, here is what those nine teams should accomplish (NOTE: I'm treating RU as 1/2 of an 11 seed and Indiana as 1/2 of a 12 seed because they have to win a play-in to get to the 64 team bracket and I'm just treating that as a 50/50 proposition).
- 5.07 teams in the R32
- 2.56 teams in the S16
- 0.96 team in the E8
- 0.46 teams in the F4
- 0.21 teams in the NC
- 0.08 NC's
Here is the chart and here is then then the explanation:
(https://i.imgur.com/3FMLGeb.png)
- #3 seeds win their R64 game 84.72% of the time. We have two so that should get us 1.69 team in the R32.
- #4 seeds win their R64 game 78.47% of the time. We have one so that should get us 0.78 teams in the R32.
- #5 seeds win their R64 game 64.58% of the time. We have one so that should get us 0.65 teams in the R32. Note that cumulatively these four teams should win barely over three opening games (3.12) so statistically it is fairly likely that one of them will lose.
- #7 seeds win their R64 game 60.42% of the time. We have two so that should get us 1.21 teams in the R32.
- #11 seeds win their R64 game 37.50% of the time. We have 1-1/2 so that should get us 0.56 teams in the R32.
- #12 seeds win their R64 game 35.42% of the time. We have 1/2 so that should get us 0.18 teams in the R32.
- Add that up and you have just over five teams in the R32.
I've used the same table of past results to also calculate the number of S16, E8, F4, NCG, and NC teams. Note that the deeper you get into the tournament the more the expected results are dependent upon the two #3 seeds (PU and UW):
- We have 5.07 teams getting to the R32, the two #3 seeds are just 1/3 of that total.
- We have 2.56 teams making the S16, the two #3 seeds are 41% of that total.
- We have 0.96 teams making the E8, the two #3 seeds are over half of that total.
- We have 0.47 teams making the F4, the two #3 seeds are over half of that total.
- We have 0.21 teams making the NC Game, the two #3 seeds are nearly 3/4 of that total.
- We have 0.08 NC's, the two #3 seeds are nearly 3/4 of that total.
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What to expect for your team:
#3 seeds Purdue and Wisconsin:
- 84.72% chance to make the R32
- 52.08% chance to make the S16
- 25.69% chance to make the E8
- 11.81% chance to make the F4
- 7.64% chance to make the NC
- 2.78% chance to win the NC
#4 seed Illinois:
- 78.47% chance to make the R32
- 46.53% chance to make the S16
- 14.58% chance to make the E8
- 9.03% chance to make the F4
- 2.08% chance to make the NC
- 0.69% chance to win the NC
#5 seed Iowa:
- 64.58% chance to make the R32
- 34.03% chance to make the S16
- 6.25% chance to make the E8
- 4.86% chance to make the F4
- 2.08% chance to make the NC
- 0.00% chance to win the NC - NOTE: The chance isn't actually ZERO but no #5 seed has ever done it so based on past history, it is.
#7 seeds Michigan State and Ohio State:
- 60.42% chance to make the R32
- 19.44% chance to make the S16
- 6.94% chance to make the E8
- 3.47% chance to make the F4
- 2.08% chance to make the NC
- 0.69% chance to win the NC
#11 seeds Michigan and Rutgers (for Rutgers cut all of these in half because you have to win the play-in to actually BE the #11 seed):
- 37.50% chance to make the R32
- 16.67% chance to make the S16
- 6.25% chance to make the E8
- 3.47% chance to make the F4
- 0.00% chance to make the NC - NOTE: See above wrt Iowa.
#12 seed Indiana (cut all of these in half because they have to win the play-in to actually BE the #12 seed):
- 35.42% chance to make the R32
- 15.28% chance to make the S16
- 1.39% chance to make the E8
- 0.00% chance to make the F4 - NOTE: See above.
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It depends. For context, Scott Drew is in his 19th season at Baylor. They have advanced past the second weekend four times and won the conference one time. But I think the school is pretty happy he is there. Basketball is a fickle sport and you don't just need a good coach, but also a lot of luck and a lot of stars aligning. Malaki Branham having a great season and likely headed to the pros isn't just a credit to him, it's a credit to Holtmann to have a freshman buy in and play so efficiently. But it also hurts next year's team a lot. That's not something you ding a coach for.
I wouldn't feel comfortable moving on until I'm reasonably sure what I have. The timing is weird but if he was a coach like Fran, I'd feel more comfortable moving on, because it feels like Fran's teams have a real cap because they never play great defense. But if they do round into form defensively and they are fielding good teams, you keep the coach. The risk of getting worse, or much worse, is much greater than the chance at getting better.
I'm a little more pessimistic and a little less patient than you.
My coaching decision matrix basically starts with assessing the school's long-term average performance:
- Ohio State has 20 league titles in ~100 years of league BB so that is roughly one every five years.
- Ohio State also has 14 S16's and 10F4's but those are all-time numbers so not really comparable to the current format. Still, I consider a S16 to be somewhat equivalent to a league title so my view is that the program on average is good for any combination of two league titles and/or S16's every five years.
That is the baseline. If the current coach is performing below the baseline it is time to move on. If he is performing near the baseline then he is no better than the average coach for your program so be thinking about moving on but no rush. If he is above the baseline then you want to keep him.
Holtmann is clearly below the baseline but he isn't THAT far off. I think it is time to move on but I'm not in THAT big of a hurry about it.
I also view the risks MUCH differently than you do. My threshold for a memorable BB season is either a league title or a S16 appearance. If we are below that then the difference between being slightly below that and WAY below that is basically negligible to me. If we aren't winning league titles or making S16 appearances then I really don't care whether we are three games out of first (tOSU this year) or 11 games out of first (UNL this year). Either way you didn't win a league title and you didn't make an appearance in the S16.
I'll add this on time since I asked you:
Ohio State's average is a league title roughly every five years. Holtmann is about to complete year five without a league title. He is behind but, to be fair, he is only down by one relative to the average. I think the team is going to regress next year and at that point he'll be down by 1.2 relative to the average. If I were tOSU's AD I would not allow that number to get above 1.5 unless there was clear improvement such that it looked like things were looking up dramatically. Thus, my maximum timeline is as follows:
- 2017/18 - 2021/22 is five years, average is 1 title, Holtmann has zero, he is -1.
- 2017/18 - 2022/23 is six years, average is 1.2 titles, if Holtmann still has zero he'll be at -1.2.
- 2017/18 - 2023/24 is seven years, average is 1.4 titles, if Holtmann still has zero he'll be at -1.4.
- 2017/18 - 2024/25 is eight years, average is 1.6 titles, if Holtmann still has zero I would be 100% in favor of moving on.
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Damn. I'll be in Paso Robles for the weekend. Wine tasting Friday before the Purdue game concludes.
Hopefully I can remain radio silent Sunday long enough to watch the R32 game (assuming they advance) on DVR.
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IMHO for OSU, there's no rush. Perhaps his seat should be a little warm, but unless you have a sure fire replacement ready in waiting, why move now?
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IMHO for OSU, there's no rush. Perhaps his seat should be a little warm, but unless you have a sure fire replacement ready in waiting, why move now?
Oh, I agree. I'm not at the point of "anything is better than this" but if I were tOSU's AD I'd try to quietly feel out John Beilein.
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Damn. I'll be in Paso Robles for the weekend. Wine tasting Friday before the Purdue game concludes.
Hopefully I can remain radio silent Sunday long enough to watch the R32 game (assuming they advance) on DVR.
Damn don't they have wifi in Paso Robles. Park in front of a television with a box of wine and taste that way
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https://twitter.com/JoeySmoke14/status/1503132641922625541?t=TzbIt_3hJo6dnkyc0iyCig&s=19
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Also man Illinois wins the B1G, gets rewarded with a four seed and Houston, which is top five on KenPom, checks in as the five seed. That's a rough one
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Oh, I agree. I'm not at the point of "anything is better than this" but if I were tOSU's AD I'd try to quietly feel out John Beilein.
If we are looking at old guys I'd call Kelvin Sampson. He likes the telephone anyway.
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Times are out:
Tuesday: 9:15, TruTv, #12 Indiana v. #12 Wyoming, (winner played #5 St. Mary's at 7:20 on Thursday)
Wednesday: 9:10, Trutv, #11 Rutgers v. #11 Notre Dame (winner plays #6 Alabama at 4:15 Friday)
Thursday
- #11 Michigan v. #6 Colorado State, 12:15, CBS
- #5 Iowa v. #12 Richmond, 3:10, truTV
Friday
- #7 Ohio State v. #10 Loyola Chicago, 12:15, CBS
- #3 Purdue v. #14 Yale, 2 pm, TBS
- #4 Illinois v. #13 Chattanooga, 6:50, TNT
- #7 Michigan State v. #10 Davidson, 9:40, CBS
- #3 Wisconsin v. #14 Colgate, 9:50, TBS
9:50? I guess I'll find out in the morning.
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9:50? I guess I'll find out in the morning.
I'll be at work for OSU. Hopefully I can get the game on in my office
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Didn't catch this the first time around, how about Sparty welcoming Foster Loyer back. He's been outstanding for Davidson.
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I'm really surprised at how highly UW got seeded in this thing. Highest ranked #3, placed in Milwaukee and the Midwest, meaning if they advance past the first weekend, they will play in Chicago.
Illinois gets a #4? Seems like they should have been seeded higher.
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Purdue as a #3 has to play in Fort Worth, while Tennessee as a #3 gets to play in Indy?
Ouch.
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Purdue as a #3 has to play in Fort Worth, while Tennessee as a #3 gets to play in Indy?
Ouch.
How Tennessee didn't get a 2 is beyond me
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How Tennessee didn't get a 2 is beyond me
It was bad, but also, with the road they got, it probably won't make a difference?
Like, they're a 3, and they have to beat Longwood, then Colorado State/Michigan, and then if they play to seed, they've got the 2 anyway.
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I'm really surprised at how highly UW got seeded in this thing. Highest ranked #3, placed in Milwaukee and the Midwest, meaning if they advance past the first weekend, they will play in Chicago.
Illinois gets a #4? Seems like they should have been seeded higher.
It turns out, when it was laid out that they try to use the nerd math as a tool, but the actual numbers next to the teams don't mean as much, that was actually true.
Would be nice if that stopped people from losing their minds about such things, but it will not.
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Purdue as a #3 has to play in Fort Worth, while Tennessee as a #3 gets to play in Indy?
Ouch.
The one bright spot there is that Purdue, assuming they beat Yale, would face Texas or VaTech in Milwaukee, not Ft Worth. It would be a home game for Texas.
I'd hate to have the bracket set up where you'd face Texas in the S16 followed by Baylor in the E8, both in Ft Worth.
Granted, Kentucky might just get that honor if Texas advances...
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@MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) ,
I just want to point out that I am not one of those fans that looks back at the best period in program history and thinks that my team should ALWAYS be that good. In my living memory the peak for tOSU BB is what Matta did for the ten seasons from 2005/06 through 2014/15. In those 10 years the Buckeyes had:
- Nine NCAA Appearances and the only one they missed was a ridiculous snub in 2008 which they "proved" was ridiculous by winning the NIT.
- Five S16's.
- Five league titles.
- Three E8's
- Two F4's
- One NC Appearance.
For reference those are averages of:
- Making the Tournament almost every year.
- Making the S16 every other year.
- Winning the league title every other year.
- Making the E8 roughly every 3-4 years.
- Making the F4 every 5 years.
- Making the NC Game every 10 years.
With the exception of tournament appearances I would be happy with half that for everything else, ie:
- A S16 every 4 years.
- A league title every 4 years.
- An E8 every ~7 years.
- A F4 every 10 years.
- Making the NC Game every 20 years.
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@MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) ,
I just want to point out that I am not one of those fans that looks back at the best period in program history and thinks that my team should ALWAYS be that good. In my living memory the peak for tOSU BB is what Matta did for the ten seasons from 2005/06 through 2014/15. In those 10 years the Buckeyes had:
- Nine NCAA Appearances and the only one they missed was a ridiculous snub in 2008 which they "proved" was ridiculous by winning the NIT.
- Five S16's.
- Five league titles.
- Three E8's
- Two F4's
- One NC Appearance.
For reference those are averages of:
- Making the Tournament almost every year.
- Making the S16 every other year.
- Winning the league title every other year.
- Making the E8 roughly every 3-4 years.
- Making the F4 every 5 years.
- Making the NC Game every 10 years.
With the exception of tournament appearances I would be happy with half that for everything else, ie:
- A S16 every 4 years.
- A league title every 4 years.
- An E8 every ~7 years.
- A F4 every 10 years.
- Making the NC Game every 20 years.
Also worth noting, Doug Lesmerises had an article, if you go by the last five years (and obviously have to go by projections for 2020), only eight teams have been in the tourney each of the last five years
- Gonzaga
- Kansas
- Villanova
- Texas Tech
- Houston
- Michigan State
- Michigan
- Ohio State
That ain't bad company
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Also worth noting, Doug Lesmerises had an article, if you go by the last five years (and obviously have to go by projections for 2020), only eight teams have been in the tourney each of the last five years
- Gonzaga
- Kansas
- Villanova
- Texas Tech
- Houston
- Michigan State
- Michigan
- Ohio State
That ain't bad company
Nice to be in that company wrt NCAA appearances but:
- Gonzaga - Five WCC Regular Season Titles, Four WCC Tournament Titles, Four R32, Three S16, Two E8, One F4, One NCG, Zero NC
- Kansas - Three B12 Regular Season Titles, Two B12 Tournament Titles, Three R32, One S16, One F4, Zero NCG, Zero NC
- Villanova - Three BigE Regular Season Titles, Three BigE Tournament Titles, Three R32, Two S16, One E8, One F4, One NCG, One NC
- Texas Tech - One B12 Regular Season Title, Zero B12 Tournament Titles, Three R32, Two S16, Two E8, One F4, One NCG, Zero NC
- Houston - Three AAC Regular Season Titles, Three AAC Tournament Titles, Three R32, Two S16, One E8, One F4,Zero NCG, Zero NC
- Michigan State - Three B1G Regular Season Titles, One B1G Tournament Title, Two R32, One S16, One E8, One F4, Zero NCG, Zero NC
- Michigan - One B1G Regular Season Title, One B1G Tournament Title, Three R32, Three S16, Two E8, One F4, One NCG, Zero NC
- Ohio State - Zero B1G Regular Season Titles, Zero B1G Tournament Titles, One R32, Zero S16, Zero E8, Zero F4, Zero NCG, Zero NC
So yeah, we are in that company in NCAA Appearances but the others all have actual accomplishments, we don't.
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Nice to be in that company wrt NCAA appearances but:So yeah, we are in that company in NCAA Appearances but the others all have actual accomplishments, we don't.
Making the tourney five straight years is an accomplishment. It also signifies we've had a quality team for five years, which is something. I would rather be in the tourney every year than not be in one year and win a B1G championship a different year.
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Making the tourney five straight years is an accomplishment. It also signifies we've had a quality team for five years, which is something. I would rather be in the tourney every year than not be in one year and win a B1G championship a different year.
I mean, perhaps it's an exaggeration, but Ohio State's 06/07 and 07/08 seasons fit into this. In '06/'07, the Buckeyes won the Big Ten and BTT and made the national championship game. Then in '07/'08, they failed to make the tournament (as probably the 1st or 2nd team out), then won the NIT.
I'd take those 2 years over any other 2 consecutive years since 2013.
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I mean, perhaps it's an exaggeration, but Ohio State's 06/07 and 07/08 seasons fit into this. In '06/'07, the Buckeyes won the Big Ten and BTT and made the national championship game. Then in '07/'08, they failed to make the tournament (as probably the 1st or 2nd team out), then won the NIT.
I'd take those 2 years over any other 2 consecutive years since 2013.
I can remember the national title game run. The conference championship? Not so much.
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I mean, perhaps it's an exaggeration, but Ohio State's 06/07 and 07/08 seasons fit into this. In '06/'07, the Buckeyes won the Big Ten and BTT and made the national championship game. Then in '07/'08, they failed to make the tournament (as probably the 1st or 2nd team out), then won the NIT.
I'd take those 2 years over any other 2 consecutive years since 2013.
This, exactly this. If you aren't winning league titles or going S16+ in the NCAA then the season is not "memorable" to me. In five or ten years I will not care whether or not our team got to the R32 or not. I would absolutely trade the last five years for two S16's and three tournament misses.
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https://twitter.com/MattNorlander/status/1503582204290605059?t=cAsi1oGZQodAfNAWFUoV6w&s=19
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This, exactly this. If you aren't winning league titles or going S16+ in the NCAA then the season is not "memorable" to me. In five or ten years I will not care whether or not our team got to the R32 or not. I would absolutely trade the last five years for two S16's and three tournament misses.
Now that's a trade I would never make in a million years. Three trash seasons so we get basically one extra win in March? Hell no. Throw it into the the dumpster.
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This, exactly this. If you aren't winning league titles or going S16+ in the NCAA then the season is not "memorable" to me. In five or ten years I will not care whether or not our team got to the R32 or not. I would absolutely trade the last five years for two S16's and three tournament misses.
I find this interesting because a S16 can be so many different things.
Let’s say this year’s team suddenly put its pants on, gets to the second weekend. There’s a little upstart vibe. It feels like an accomplishment.
I looked back at the last two times OSU got to the Sweet 16 or better. They were top-5 teams, a 1 seed and 2 seed that both took upsets to other good teams. So if you have three misses and those seasons, it feels way different than if you had three misses and two four seeds that just did their job and bowed out.
(I admit, I’m biased because UW has only missed the dance once since I joined up, but I’d rather five good teams. I can accept the randomness of the tournament, but three years of frustrating basketball throughout seems unenjoyable. UW this year is trying to avoid five years without a Sweet 16. I’m not sure They’ll make it, but even if they take an upset, I don’t know that I’ll be highly busted up. Granted, two surprised conference titles help)
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(https://i.imgur.com/g6PMsnp.png)
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After looking through the brackets, I like the Badgers to make the deepest run of Big Ten teams this year.
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I find this interesting because a S16 can be so many different things.
Let’s say this year’s team suddenly put its pants on, gets to the second weekend. There’s a little upstart vibe. It feels like an accomplishment.
I looked back at the last two times OSU got to the Sweet 16 or better. They were top-5 teams, a 1 seed and 2 seed that both took upsets to other good teams. So if you have three misses and those seasons, it feels way different than if you had three misses and two four seeds that just did their job and bowed out.
(I admit, I’m biased because UW has only missed the dance once since I joined up, but I’d rather five good teams. I can accept the randomness of the tournament, but three years of frustrating basketball throughout seems unenjoyable. UW this year is trying to avoid five years without a Sweet 16. I’m not sure They’ll make it, but even if they take an upset, I don’t know that I’ll be highly busted up. Granted, two surprised conference titles help)
This is underrated. The tourney can be loads of fun, but having a great team going in is more or less a lesson in disappointment. I still have mental scars on Matta's best team, which got dropped by Kentucky in the Sweet 16.
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After looking through the brackets, I like the Badgers to make the deepest run of Big Ten teams this year.
All depends on if Davis is OK. Sprained ankles are tough.
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After looking through the brackets, I like the Badgers to make the deepest run of Big Ten teams this year.
Yeah, I think that's fair. They're a tough team, and their draw doesn't look too bad.
I'd say that Purdue has the highest ceiling of any B1G team--their ceiling is winning the whole damn thing. Unfortunately they've come up short every time they've played with something on the line; lost to Rutgers when they got their first #1 AP rank in school history, lost to Wisconsin when a win would basically seal a share of the B1G regular season (and then lost @MSU to follow it up and lose a shot at a shared title), and lost in the BTTCG to salvage the conference slate with a Big Ten Tournament championship.
I just don't have any trust that Purdue can play to their ceiling when the brightest of bright lights come on.
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After looking through the brackets, I like the Badgers to make the deepest run of Big Ten teams this year.
Quit puttin’ that hex on them.
They’re taking a first weekend upset. Lucky to get to losing to Auburn/Miami.
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Hmm, ranking teams by whether they can win the whole thing:
- Illinois: Maybe the most complete team in the B1G. Bad defense is a weight on Iowa and Purdue - Illinois is better here. Plus they have good guards. But man, Houston in the second round is a bad beat.
- Purdue: Have everything you want. The defensive numbers are bad, though. Tough to get around that, and tough not to look hard at Kentucky, one of the rare teams with a better big guy and equal talent.
- Wisconsin: Competent defensively and they have a star guard who can win games. But if he has a bad game, do they have anything else?
- Iowa: Iowa has been the best B1G team in the latter half of the season, and the best by the FancyStats. Two NBA caliber 6'8 guys who can score and guard is a tough matchup for anyone. But with their defense never being great, it always makes me gunshy.
- Indiana: Definitely a top four and everyone else. Indiana has to do the playin game, but they play defense at least.
- MSU: Can't doubt Izzo in March, but this team doesn't inspire a ton of confidence.
- Michigan: Ridiculously inconsistent, but they have a winning formula in theory if they can just hit shots.
- OSU: Healthwise think they get Key and Johnson back, still no word on Kyle Young. Tough draw and not finishing the season that well. Plus their defense limits them anyway.
- Rutgers: Playin game - they play hard but overall talent not wonderful.
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I think I'd rank like this:
1) Purdue - No one will care that they underachieved all year if they make a Final Four
2) Illinois - Lots of pieces, but not sure they fit together well all the time
3) Wisconsin - Connected and good blend of talent and senior leadership
4) Iowa - Hot right now and good talent. Lack of defense moves them down
5/6) Michigan / Ohio State - Just putting them both here. Both have lots of talent, but highly inconsistent
7) Indiana - Great frontcourt. If the back court can settle down, they can make a run
8) Rutgers - They have a nice trio of players who could elevate their play and be a problem.
9) Michigan State - I just don't see the talent here, but Izzo gives them some chance
But Wisconsin has a great draw, and actually so do Ohio State and Michigan. Illinois just has a brutal draw, and I don't like them to do much.
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This is underrated. The tourney can be loads of fun, but having a great team going in is more or less a lesson in disappointment. I still have mental scars on Matta's best team, which got dropped by Kentucky in the Sweet 16.
Oh man, me too. They were the #1 seed that year (2010/11) and got their first weekend games in Cleveland so I bought the NCAA Package ticket and went. They obliterated #16 UTSA on Friday. On Sunday they got #8 George Mason and George Mason had made a run to the F4 a few years prior as a #11 seed so their fans were wearing "We are this year's George Mason" t-shirts. That was cute and then the game started. Ohio State doubled them up 52-26 in the first half and coasted to an easy win by 30+.
I really thought that Kentucky was an underseeded #4 that year and they backed that up by getting to the F4 where they lost their semi-final by a single point to the eventual NC, UCONN.
That was definitely the best Ohio State team I've ever seen. They had good defense and they had a slew of scoring options. Sullinger was a presence inside, Diebler (Threebler) at the time (might still be) was the B1G's all-time leading three point shooter, and the leading scorer (IIRC) was Buford.
In that Kentucky game the Buckeyes had a just terrible night. Craft was never much of a shooter and was mainly on the court for his defense and to run the offense but he played 36 minutes and scored two points (on two-of-three FT) while going 0-5 from the field. That is a lot of minutes for two points. Sullinger and Diebler were ok, but didn't have great nights, not enough to make up for what is next:
Buford, the team's leading scorer, had a just dreadful night. He played 37 minutes and was 2-16 (including 1-3 from behind the line). He had nine points including 4-4 FT's.
Despite that bad of a night from the team's leading scorer the Buckeyes actually had a shot in the air to win at the buzzer. Unfortunately that shot was Buford's 14th and final miss of the evening. Honestly, I will always believe that if that team had made one more shot against Kentucky they'd have won the NC but it was not to be.
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For every one of those stories, Purdue fans probably have 5 more. That one year where they lost the ridiculous ending to Virginia seems way worse than this.
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MSU is too low on the preceding lists. Izzo hot swapped out a star starting point guard for a 5-11 underclassman in the midst of a Final Four run.
He’s got nine blue chippers on the roster, six in the rotation. I’m not counting that cagy bastard out until the exact moment that team is done.
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That OSU team delivered hands down the worst ass beating I’ve ever seen UW take. The Badgers were a 25-win Sweet 16 team. They put up a very solid 1.12 points per possession.
And Ohio State made it feel like a 2-15 game.
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Despite that bad of a night from the team's leading scorer the Buckeyes actually had a shot in the air to win at the buzzer. Unfortunately that shot was Buford's 14th and final miss of the evening. Honestly, I will always believe that if that team had made one more shot against Kentucky they'd have won the NC but it was not to be.
For every one of those stories, Purdue fans probably have 5 more. That one year where they lost the ridiculous ending to Virginia seems way worse than this.
Yeah, it many ways that ending was similar, except Virginia made the shot...
Purdue had the lead when the clock hit 00:00, but the tying shot was in the air and it dropped, forcing OT.
There were two key differences between that game and the Kentucky/OSU game...
- Kentucky fans don't have a feeling that their entire history is snakebit, and that when it comes to the Tournament, anything that can go wrong, will. They were the blueblood of bluebloods. Likewise OSU had been in the championship game only 4 years before, and had two Final Four finishes since Purdue's last in 1980, so they weren't quite as starved.
- Both teams in that game (Purdue & UVA) were seen as snakebit tournament teams that were unable to "get over the hump" and make the Final Four. Bennett and Painter both were on the list of "best coaches who haven't made F4 / won championship / etc" going into that game. There is mutual respect between those programs. As heartbreaking as that loss was, at least it wasn't to Duke, UNC, Kentucky, or Kansas.
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I will be very curious to see how the refs call the games in the tournament. The amount of physicality that the Big Ten refs allowed might have been a detriment to some teams.
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I will be very curious to see how the refs call the games in the tournament. The amount of physicality that the Big Ten refs allowed might have been a detriment to some teams.
:96:
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I will be very curious to see how the refs call the games in the tournament. The amount of physicality that the Big Ten refs allowed might have been a detriment to some teams.
Mom-B1G refs when they see and have to figure out Edey.
“what the f$@& is that”
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Mom-B1G refs when they see and have to figure out Edey.
“what the f$@& is that”
Yep. Edey can stand perfectly still, a guard runs into him and bounces off of him, and Edey gets the foul for knocking him down...
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Yeah, I think that's fair. They're a tough team, and their draw doesn't look too bad.
I'd say that Purdue has the highest ceiling of any B1G team--their ceiling is winning the whole damn thing. Unfortunately they've come up short every time they've played with something on the line; lost to Rutgers when they got their first #1 AP rank in school history, lost to Wisconsin when a win would basically seal a share of the B1G regular season (and then lost @MSU to follow it up and lose a shot at a shared title), and lost in the BTTCG to salvage the conference slate with a Big Ten Tournament championship.
I just don't have any trust that Purdue can play to their ceiling when the brightest of bright lights come on.
Well, I have Purdue in my FF so they have that going against them now, too.
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https://twitter.com/PregameEmpire/status/1503830355207462915?t=DMda2X4tsDGtwDVtVXBPhA&s=19
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The more I watch college basketball, the more confused I am about when it makes sense to use fatigue as an excuse.
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The more I watch college basketball, the more confused I am about when it makes sense to use fatigue as an excuse.
I said earlier in regards to the BTT, that once you play for your third consecutive day, it anecdotally seems to get harder. So when a team is playing their first game, against a team playing their second, it seems to be a wash. The one team might be slightly more fatigued, but they also are in better rhythm. But a team on their third game vs. a team in their second game, there seems to be a gap.
As for the NCAA, meh, I don't think it's ever a thing. Teams play two games in three days sporadically throughout the season. And sometimes (usually?) against a team on more rest. Here, both teams are in the same boat, and it's not SO extreme that I buy the team with better depth has a rest advantage.
The only teams that might be able to claim it, are the First Four teams, playing three games in five days, with a travel day mixed in. And these are underdogs to begin with, so I think how they've fared going forward should kill any sort of fatigue excuse.
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Michigan point guard Devante Jones out with a concussion
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I said earlier in regards to the BTT, that once you play for your third consecutive day, it anecdotally seems to get harder. So when a team is playing their first game, against a team playing their second, it seems to be a wash. The one team might be slightly more fatigued, but they also are in better rhythm. But a team on their third game vs. a team in their second game, there seems to be a gap.
I slightly disagree. I think the team playing their second actually has an advantage over the team playing their first although that may depend on how physical and how difficult the first game was.
Mostly anecdotally (because I don't want to look it all up):
Back when we had an 11-team league the #6 seed almost always (I think all but once) beat #11. Then, their second game was against #3 who was playing their first and despite #3 obviously being generally better than #6, the #6 seed had a winning (by a lot IIRC) record against the #3. I think there are two important factors though:
- #11 was generally an awful team. Back then that was last and with 11 teams in the league usually at least one is just REALLY bad so #6 generally had an easy win in basically a tune-up game against #11.
- #6 isn't generally THAT much worse than #3.
Another thing though is that in both the 11 and 14 team formats the #8/9 winner has done surprisingly well against the #1 seed. This year's #8/9 winner (Indiana) took out #1 (Illinois) and that has happened a few times but in addition to that there have been a LOT of VERY close games in the 1 vs 8/9 slot and just looking at the teams you wouldn't expect that. Really, #1 should handle the 8/9 winner pretty easily but frankly they usually don't.
Evan Turner's half-court heave to beat Michigan (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVLWsHjVu9Y) is a great example of this. Ohio State fans like me love reliving that moment because it was a buzzer beater to beat our rival but look a little deeper. Ohio State was the #1 seed. They went 14-4 in the league and were 24-7 entering that game. Michigan went 7-11 in the league and was 15-16 entering that game. Ohio State went on to win the BTT and make the S16 whereas that was Michigan's last game, they didn't even go to the NIT. My point is that while it was a neat win and all there really was no reason for Ohio State to need a miraculous buzzer-beater to beat Michigan. Looking at the disparity between the two teams, the Buckeyes should have been dribbling out the last few seconds while sitting on a double-digit lead but they weren't.
Ohio State is FAR from the only #1 seed in the BTT to have a LOT more trouble with the 8/9 winner than you would expect just by comparing the two teams.
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Michigan point guard Devante Jones out with a concussion
Damn, what did he say to Juwan?
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Damn, what did he say to Juwan?
Wasn't Juwan. Jones ran into Purdue's Kelsey Barlow and doubted his ball-rack-throwing skills.
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I mean, perhaps it's an exaggeration, but Ohio State's 06/07 and 07/08 seasons fit into this. In '06/'07, the Buckeyes won the Big Ten and BTT and made the national championship game. Then in '07/'08, they failed to make the tournament (as probably the 1st or 2nd team out), then won the NIT.
I'd take those 2 years over any other 2 consecutive years since 2013.
Those were two great years.
I remember the snub for the NIT, and we were all like has this team packed it up, or are they just going to crush it in the NIT, then they went out and won. I can't tell you who won the NCAA that year, but man was that NIT run a blast.
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no march madness bracket challenge here?
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Those were two great years.
I remember the snub for the NIT, and we were all like has this team packed it up, or are they just going to crush it in the NIT, then they went out and won. I can't tell you who won the NCAA that year, but man was that NIT run a blast.
That was pretty cool, mostly because all the games were at OSU until the final. I think they did one at St. John's too, which was fun as hell. A proper basketball arena.
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Stupid Domers...
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Stupid Domers...
I missed it because I don't get that channel but must have been a heck of a game!
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It was a great one. Honestly, I thought Notre Dame outplayed Rutgers for the most part, but the Scarlet Knights kept making crazy 3's to stay in it. Notre Dame dominated in the paint, while Rutgers was shooting jump shots for most of the game.
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Michigan definitely missing Jones.
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Michigan only down seven at the half, which as poor as they looked at times, ain't bad.
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Great second half and Michigan about to be the first team to the second round
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Ugh. Refs screw up a good ending for Providence South Dakota St. Looks like Providence will advance
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Looks like Memphis will advance. Not the kind of team the Zags want to see in Round 2
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Richmond didn't get the memo on Iowa being the hottest B1G team
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Looks like Memphis will advance. Not the kind of team the Zags want to see in Round 2
The zags are going to have to get by GA State first... Tied near the end of the first half.
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The zags are going to have to get by GA State first... Tied near the end of the first half.
Would be a hell of an upset. Down goes Iowa. Fran is fuchsia
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Did playing 4 straight games this past weekend wear Iowa out?
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Did playing 4 straight games this past weekend wear Iowa out?
Probably didn't help, though Richmond did too I think
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Good point
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Fatigue!
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Evening tilt engage. Hoosiers on clock.
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Kentucky tied at the half. That would put my bracket in the blender
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Hoosiers taking some trash calls on the chin.
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Did playing 4 straight games this past weekend wear Iowa out?
I think playing for Frannwore them out. Thank God they were in Kansas' bracket. If they were with Gonzaga or Baylor, I would have had them in my Final 4
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Hoosiers getting whipped. B1G going from 9 to 6 on the first day.
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Indiana isn’t getting beat. They are getting humiliated.
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Ooohhh. This Kentucky game is fun.
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My bracket is on the ropes
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Indiana isn’t getting beat. They are getting humiliated.
By a rather tall midget.
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Kentucky about to go down.
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Kentucky, UConn, Indiana and Iowa all losing to midmajors on day one.
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So the Big Ten is a 9 bid mid major? Fun. Can't wait to lose to the team that lost to Richmond tomorrow
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Like I said, we're all gonna be riding the Badger Bandwagon after this weekend, assuming Johnny Davis is healthy. If not, then ouch.
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There is no replicating this in football, simply because the disparity is so large. But I think my plan of a 6 game conference schedule to open the year, followed by a double elimination tournament, would be the best you could do
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Loogit that. A national title contender couldn't win against a functional bye. You hate to see it.
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Yeah, how do you spin that one?
"You can't expect a high seed to get jacked up for the opening round"? Even though all their hopes and dreams are all still very much alive and well?
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Fatigue! Grueling 3 hour drive from Lex.
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The only excuse needed: The other team played well, the favorite did not.
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The Hawgs barely survive Vermont, with a four point win. Akron and UCLA going down to the wire.
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Some really dubious final possession shot selection tonight.
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This is one of those odd treats. You have a batch with no upsets, but a lot of competitive near-upsets, which is always enjoyable.
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USF v Murray St. was fun.
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Hawkeye men stunk it up. I knew Dick Vitale's championship game loss prediction was the kiss of death to young people reading headlines of greatness. Still, I didn't expect the boomerang to strike the skull quite this hard this quickly.
The Hawkeye women on the other hand will smell like roses in June, and will make a deep run - I am predicting Elite 8 for Iowa WBB.
Good luck to all!
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I'm trying to be optimistic about the Buckeyes chances today, but I just can't see it. Vegas has the game as a pick 'em. If Kyle Young is ruled out, this is a good one to lay some cash on Loyola. Even with Kyle back, I would have to assume he'll be rusty, but he is so valuable that rusty Kyle is a big upgrade.
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USF v Murray St. was fun.
My Mom was a USF grad, so I know that my parents were considering flying out to Indy if they had somehow pulled off that win last night. Fun game, but just too many missed open 3's for USF.
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I hadn't thought about it, but if Purdue manages to make the 2nd weekend, the elimination of Kentucky means at worst they'd face the #7 seed Murray St in the S16...
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You say that like they haven't dropped games to lower tiered, lower seeded teams before in the tournament.....
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You say that like they haven't dropped games to lower tiered, lower seeded teams before in the tournament.....
I said "if" they even make the second weekend...
And not a guarantee of a win if we get there, just saying it's a better draw.
I'm just hoping we beat Yale right now...
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Kyle Young out there for the Buckeyes.
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Defense? Transition points? But can't shoot straight? Who are these guys?
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https://www.si.com/college/2022/03/15/purdue-hoping-this-is-the-year-daily-cover-march-madness
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By a rather tall midget.
Indiana didn't get beat by a tall midget, they lost as expected as a #12 seed to a #5 seed.
Saint Mary's wasn't even a league Champion. They lost to Gonzaga in their league title game so they were an at-large team just like Indiana and St. Mary's was a better one which is why they were the #5 and Indiana was the #12.
The WCC actually had five decent teams this year (by NET):
- #1 Gonzaga
- #19 St. Mary's
- #22 San Francisco
- #54 BYU
- #67 Santa Clara
Then they had five BAD teams ranging from #176 Portland to #297 Pacific. For comparison, the B1G's worst team was #141 Nebraska.
Yeah, how do you spin that one?
"You can't expect a high seed to get jacked up for the opening round"? Even though all their hopes and dreams are all still very much alive and well?
What is your argument, that St. Peter's is actually better than Kentucky?
No spin is necessary, this:
The only excuse needed: The other team played well, the favorite did not.
It happens, the better team doesn't always win. Players and teams have good days and bad days and basically $h!t happens.
One of the legit NC Contenders (Kentucky) was eliminated by losing a game they clearly should have won but that doesn't mean that St. Peter's is a better team nor that St. Peter's now replaces them as a legit NC Contender. #15 seeds have now won 10 of 145 games against the #2. Two of the previous nine then went on to beat the #7/10 winner and make the S16 but exactly zero #15 seeds have ever won a second weekend game and it is the same for the #16's, the #14's, and the #13's.
These teams are NOT legit NC contenders they are plucky underdogs who occasionally pull off an upset. It is cute when it happens but the only impact it has on the NC is that Kentucky is now eliminated so the chances just got a little better for each of the remaining legitimate contenders especially Baylor and Purdue who no longer have the prospect of facing Kentucky in the E8 or S16 respectively. As noted above, should they make it, Purdue's strongest possible S16 opponent is now #7 Murray State. Similarly, should they make it Baylor's strongest possible E8 opponent is now #3 Purdue.
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Getting some weird camera angles in this game
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Jamari Wheeler down the stretch...woof! Two terrible turnovers and then just standing around when they need to get him the ball.
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Buckeyes advance based on some really good defense. Happy and healthy and likely facing Villanova in the second round, who will probably shoot better than 27%. Hopefully the Buckeyes will in turn shoot better than 7% from three.
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Buckeyes advance based on some really good defense. Happy and healthy and likely facing Villanova in the second round, who will probably shoot better than 27%. Hopefully the Buckeyes will in turn shoot better than 7% from three.
I missed it due to the NCAA scheduling the two busiest days of the Tournament during the work week.
I'll take it, on to the second round.
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I missed it due to the NCAA scheduling the two busiest days of the Tournament during the work week.
I'll take it, on to the second round.
It was a tense game - both teams were relentless on defense but struggled to get open looks and struggled to make them when they got them. Also both teams turned the ball over, often in terrible ways that made me want to throw my computer out the window.
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Purdue up 13 at half, Yale has zero answers for Zach Edey.
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Go Blue Hens!
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Go Blue Hens!
I don't think my heart could take losing to a 15 seed two years in a row
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I don't think my heart could take losing to a 15 seed two years in a row
Yeah, that would suck.
For once I was being more optimistic than you. I was hoping for an easier second round game and a S16
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Buckeyes being Buckeyes?
Or
Barstool being Barstool?
Bit of both?
https://twitter.com/BarstoolOSU/status/1504886829782384648
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Yeah, that would suck.
For once I was being more optimistic than you. I was hoping for an easier second round game and a S16
Never mind.
Villanova apparently woke up.
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OK we have 3 teams to the 2nd round. 3 more will play tonight. The way I see it, Wisconsin should win and the other 2 are toss ups. So if we get 5 that would be on par. 6 would be amazing.
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Not missing much with this early batch.
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No fatigue for the Irish after their double OT win against Rutgers and then flying from Dayton to San Diego. About to polish off Alabama.
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Mike Bray used to be a dud in March type. It leads to the odd reality of achievement possibilities as a top-half vs bottom-half seed.
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Illini not exactly painting themselves with glory
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Illini not exactly painting themselves with glory
There are no style points in March. As long as they win, good for the league!
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Are these halftimes longer? They feel longer.
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Purdue up 13 at half, Yale has zero answers for Zach Edey.
Few teams do. And when Edey cones off the floor, you have to deal with Tre.
The question is if Purdue is hitting threes. If not, you cried the paint and double the bigs. If yes... Well, you're f$&@#d and you'd better just hope you can outscore Purdue based on their mediocre defense.
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There are no style points in March. As long as they win, good for the league!
Well they better start playing better if they plan to win
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I’m feeling odd about this spot for UW. This team has always felt a little overachieving, which means maybe a little more vulnerable.
Losing tonight would be a disaster.
Before the tournament, a second-round loss would not have bothered me a ton. Maybe it won’t, but this ISU team is not great on O.
Getting to a Sweet 16 would be playing to seed, and frankly, Auburn or Miami are good enough I wouldn’t be crushed with a loss to them.
Oh well, on Wisconsin
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There are no style points in March. As long as they win, good for the league!
Illinois definitely lived up to this
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Illinois BARELY survives. But they did.
That’s March, I suppose.
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4 teams through! Let's see if we can make it 6.
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4 points from Williams, Frazier and Grandison combined. The guards were terrible. Thankfully Plummer found his touch late. That was ugly and they were lucky to move on.
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LSU-ISU making OSU-Loyola look like a Loyola Marymount game
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Ncaa after dark tonight in Milwaukee. Tip off looks like 10:35+ at this point.
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@betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19)
And so it comes to this, my old friend.
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Well they better start playing better if they plan to win
They did, whew!
Illinois BARELY survives. But they did.
That’s March, I suppose.
Yep, no style points in March and:
Illinois definitely lived up to this
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Not sure how we wound up playing a road game as a seven seed
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First half was uninspiring for Wisconsin.
On the other hand, I did not see TCU going ham like this
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I guess that will always be known as the Joey Hauser game. 27 points, 8 rebounds. 4-6 from 3, rest of the team was 3-20
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Wisconsin seems to have figured out that Colgate likes to shoot threes
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Hawkeye WBB got a 40-pointer today, i.e. a 40-point win.
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Hello, I will accept that second-round loss now. Good lord that was unpleasant.
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Hawkeye WBB got a 40-pointer today, i.e. a 40-point win.
I am highly excited for if they make the Elite 8.
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I am highly excited for if they make the Elite 8.
I think Elite 8 is their destiny, and where it stops. But, hope springs eternal.
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Second round games sorted by lines:
- #3 Purdue -3-1/2 vs #6 Texas
- #3 Wisconsin -3 vs #11 ISU
- #4 Illinois +4 vs #5 Houston
- #7 tOSU +5 vs #2 Nova
- #11 Michigan +6 vs #3 TN
- #7 MSU +6-1/2 vs #2 DOOK
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I would love to see Izzo knock Rat Face into retirement.
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Second round games sorted by lines:
Rick Barnes giving 6 points with a Sweet 16 on the line? Interesting
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Rick Barnes giving 6 points with a Sweet 16 on the line? Interesting
The line projected as 9.5, so it's getting knocked down by something.
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@betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19)
And so it comes to this, my old friend.
Amazing foresight by the Texas AD to hire Chris Beard a few years ago in anticipation of this game...
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Carolina looking vintage
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The line projected as 9.5, so it's getting knocked down by something.
(https://blacksportsonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/rickbarnes.jpg)
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The #1 and #2 seeds are both knocked out of Purdue's region on opening weekend. Painter's Final 4 path is there for the taking
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Baylor might have life. Refs threw Manek (who was wrecking Baylor) out the game on a pretty soft call.
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This would be an all timer of a choke
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The fact that I've lived long enough to see the refs screw UNC is quite something
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OT
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This is the correct energy
https://twitter.com/kylebaustin/status/1505274028243787780?t=P81N0SOUNrjjhtXGJ8kf9w&s=19
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Nice how things seem to always work out for Michigan, that they get a pair of home games as an 11 seed
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I initially had Michigan to the Elite 8. Then I switched it and had them losing to Tennessee, but if I had looked to see if they were playing in Indianapolis, I would have stuck with it
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A carry called in 2022. My word
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Nice how things seem to always work out for Michigan, that they get a pair of home games as an 11 seed
Which is why Michigan +6.5 was easy money. When the committee gives an 11 seed back to back home games, you know where their loyalties lie
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Nice play by Dickinson to hit nothing but arm, but not get it called. Unfortunately his coach didn't get similar contact ignored
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So I just noticed that if Ohio State manages to knock off Villanova . . .
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The funniest part is how much Juwan Howard continues to be unaware of what an embarrassment he his to his employer
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Nice win for Michigan. I thought they were doomed with Jones struggling and then getting knocked out, but they got it figured out.
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The funniest part is how much Juwan Howard continues to be unaware of what an embarrassment he his to his employer
Speaking of unbearable.
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George Perles got fired for academic fraud. If MSU hired one of the players involved in that scandal, and then didn't fire him after trying to fight multiple coaches, major yikes
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Speaking of unbearable.
You ever tried to fight a co-worker? Twice? He is an absolute embarrassment to the university. Brady Hoke was a bad coach, but didn't embarrass the school. This man was part of the biggest college sports scandal since SMU, and has since tried to fight multiple coaches. That is an absolute embarrassment. If MSU tried to hire one of the players from the Perles academic scandal, and the stood by him after trying to fight multiple coaches, I would absolutely be here saying, what the hell are we doing here.
But I guess in a world where Deshaun Watson is getting hundreds of millions of dollars for being a talented POS, this is what sports is now. Look the other way while you win.
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You ever tried to fight a co-worker? Twice? He is an absolute embarrassment to the university. Brady Hoke was a bad coach, but didn't embarrass the school. This man was part of the biggest college sports scandal since SMU, and has since tried to fight multiple coaches. That is an absolute embarrassment. If MSU tried to hire one of the players from the Perles academic scandal, and the stood by him after trying to fight multiple coaches, I would absolutely be here saying, what the hell are we doing here.
But I guess in a world where Deshaun Watson is getting hundreds of millions of dollars for being a talented POS, this is what sports is now. Look the other way while you win.
At least you moved on from being able to call him a terrible coach. Sweet 16 first 3 years is tough to argue.
The scandal was 30 years ago. Move on, unless you never made mistakes as a 19 year old, but also acting like no other program has played in the mud is just absurd.
No argument about Watson, except trying to relate Watson to Juwan is quite a stretch. Must not be a lot of fruit consumption in your house with all the bitter apples. Go Blue.
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Fool me once...fool me twice...fool me thrice...good thing you are winning
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Always amazing when people raised in an affluent family can be so critical of teenage kids in Howard’s situation. Absentee parents, raised by his grandma in the south side of Chicago. You see an embarrassment to your view of what he should be, when a lot of people see a winner for getting out of a situation most can’t break out of. Amusing that the more he wins the more it gets under your skin.
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coaches that win have a longer leash, this is nothing new
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Always amazing when people raised in an affluent family can be so critical of teenage kids in Howard’s situation. Absentee parents, raised by his grandma in the south side of Chicago. You see an embarrassment to your view of what he should be, when a lot of people see a winner for getting out of a situation most can’t break out of. Amusing that the more he wins the more it gets under your skin.
Nah, the more co workers he punches the more he embarrasses me as someone who respects his employer, who several of my family, some deceased, have committed to their values. I don't care if he wins or loses. Beilein, Harbaugh and Howard have won. Harbaugh is a weirdo, but doesn't embarrass the school. Hoke lost a ton. Wasn't a good coach, but didn't embarrass the school. The two coaches who have are RichRod and Howard, both for multiple reasons
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Amazing in none of these rants you talk about Dr. Anderson. If you serious about embarrassment at the school and these untouchable values, maybe start there.
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He is. But him an his enablers are all dead.
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FWIW, I'm trying to stay out of the Howard conversation because I'll never be able to be objective, I hate him. Here is why:
Way back when I was in High School my future Alma Mater had a very good BB team and they got to the Elite Eight for the first time in decades.
My parents had taken my little brother and I to see Washington DC over Spring Break and I watched Ohio State's E8 game in a hotel room in DC.
The Buckeyes lost to a team that had a larger payroll than half the NBA. Juwan Howard was on that highly paid team that took them out.
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FWIW, I'm trying to stay out of the Howard conversation because I'll never be able to be objective, I hate him. Here is why:
Way back when I was in High School my future Alma Mater had a very good BB team and they got to the Elite Eight for the first time in decades.
My parents had taken my little brother and I to see Washington DC over Spring Break and I watched Ohio State's E8 game in a hotel room in DC.
The Buckeyes lost to a team that had a larger payroll than half the NBA. Juwan Howard was on that highly paid team that took them out.
At some point you decide what you are willing to permit in the name of winning
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To better understand everyone’s moral compass here, Juwan Howard is the scum of college sports? We paint him as the target over the Ed Martins or the Bobby D’s the funded OSU football players? We side step the Larry Nassars and Robert Andersons? We’re going to throw out the phrases values and what we permit to allow winning, but gloss over the true scumbag enablers that we’re part of shaping the idea of values? The hypocrisy in those positions is hilarious.
Every fan tries to paint the picture that their program and coach is worth backing and their enemy with the bullseye is the one lacking morals and character. It’s a laughable stance at best and pretentious at worst.
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Arkansas and NMSU tied at 32 at the 8:06 mark…
…of the second half. It’s as brutal as it sounds.
-
Feels like every window is boring or awesome. I'm either flipping away from the tournament, or flipping between great games
-
To better understand everyone’s moral compass here, Juwan Howard is the scum of college sports? We paint him as the target over the Ed Martins or the Bobby D’s the funded OSU football players? We side step the Larry Nassars and Robert Andersons? We’re going to throw out the phrases values and what we permit to allow winning, but gloss over the true scumbag enablers that we’re part of shaping the idea of values? The hypocrisy in those positions is hilarious.
Every fan tries to paint the picture that their program and coach is worth backing and their enemy with the bullseye is the one lacking morals and character. It’s a laughable stance at best and pretentious at worst.
Or people are able to recognize that there is zero connection between those things. If Larry Nassar or Robert Anderson were actively coaching a Big Ten team, I imagine there would be some substantial outcry. And yet still, aside from random straw man "whataboutism" it wouldn't impact how I feel about other coaches whose behavior has nothing to do with those monsters
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St. Peters head to the Sweet 16. Second straight year for a 15 seed. The times they are a changing.
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Or people are able to recognize that there is zero connection between those things. If Larry Nassar or Robert Anderson were actively coaching a Big Ten team, I imagine there would be some substantial outcry. And yet still, aside from random straw man "whataboutism" it wouldn't impact how I feel about other coaches whose behavior has nothing to do with those monsters
Weird because you tried to connect Deshaun Watson to Juwan Howard. Let’s just agree to disagree as we see this topic very differently and there’s a lot of great basketball happening.
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Will Emoni Bates win MOP for leaving the team?
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The #1 and #2 seeds are both knocked out of Purdue's region on opening weekend. Painter's Final 4 path is there for the taking
Good luck @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) , @grillrat (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=11) , PU Nation.
If Purdue beats #6 Texas they'll beat #15 St. Pete in the S16 and their E8 opponent will be a blue blood but not a great team this year, either:
If they can beat Texas, looks good for Purdue.
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This game rules.
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Memphis is so odd. Crappy point, couldn't make Bates work, and then played to the level of that talent for the latter half of the year.
Penny builds himself a spot of goodwill.
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Good luck @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) , @grillrat (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=11) , PU Nation.
If Purdue beats #6 Texas they'll beat #15 St. Pete in the S16 and their E8 opponent will be a blue blood but not a great team this year, either:
If they can beat Texas, looks good for Purdue.
I'm just hoping the team is focused on Texas. Can't take advantage of that draw if they don't win tomorrow.
On the bright side, we need to leave Paso early to make sure we pick up the dog from boarding before 2 PM. Game is 5:40 PT. So I'll be able to watch uninterrupted.
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To better understand everyone’s moral compass here, Juwan Howard is the scum of college sports? We paint him as the target over the Ed Martins or the Bobby D’s the funded OSU football players? We side step the Larry Nassars and Robert Andersons? We’re going to throw out the phrases values and what we permit to allow winning, but gloss over the true scumbag enablers that we’re part of shaping the idea of values? The hypocrisy in those positions is hilarious.
Every fan tries to paint the picture that their program and coach is worth backing and their enemy with the bullseye is the one lacking morals and character. It’s a laughable stance at best and pretentious at worst.
I've never seen a post that lacks this much self-awareness.
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I've never seen a post that lacks this much self-awareness.
true, I would say most fans don't try to paint the picture that their program and coach is worth backing and their enemy with the bullseye is the one lacking morals and character.
of course a small percentage of delusional fans do.
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I have no skin in this game, but I do think that two physical altercations started in two years with opposing coaching staffs is, well, a big deal.
Morgan's history as part of the fab five is irrelevant at this point. One altercation can be explained. Two cannot.
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The explanation might not be very flattering for said school, but it can easily be explained.
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yes, to me the fab 5 history isn't important here
cheating is a different matter
now if he gets caught paying players..............
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I have no skin in this game, but I do think that two physical altercations started in two years with opposing coaching staffs is, well, a big deal.
Morgan's history as part of the fab five is irrelevant at this point. One altercation can be explained. Two cannot.
He also spends chunks of games shit talking and cussing at opposing players and benches.
He did get that nice moment with Chandler, which I did enjoy
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true, I would say most fans don't try to paint the picture that their program and coach is worth backing and their enemy with the bullseye is the one lacking morals and character.
of course a small percentage of delusional fans do.
Maybe phrased poorly, but you disagree that most fans notice the moral character of opposing teams/coaches more quickly and excuse that of their own? I’ll quickly admit that tendency. Steelers fans ignored a lot of issues with Big B. Ravens fans made excuses for Ray Lewis. I think high levels of skill tend to bring blind eyes. Possibly not blind eyes, but more willingness to accept flaws to win.
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I've never seen a post that lacks this much self-awareness.
Always have to make it personal. Congrats for consistency. Thanks for the reminder why I tend to disappear and focus on family.
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I have no skin in this game, but I do think that two physical altercations started in two years with opposing coaching staffs is, well, a big deal.
Morgan's history as part of the fab five is irrelevant at this point. One altercation can be explained. Two cannot.
Exactly. I couldn’t care less about his Fab 5 days. College kids taking money from boosters has happened forever. There are a thousand examples of it and a lot of people don’t even think it should be a rule.
I can probably count on one hand the times I’ve seen a coach restrained from going after another coach and then Howard follows that rarity up with something even more rare, striking an opposing coach. I would have fired him and not blinked.
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Houston is good enough that the Illini don't have to keep giving them the ball
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Rough start for the Illini, but only down 7 now.
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Always have to make it personal. Congrats for consistency. Thanks for the reminder why I tend to disappear and focus on family.
(https://cdn.quotesgram.com/small/79/30/1068734499-45705d1358793620-old-west-gun-control-well-bye.jpg)
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I have no idea how Illinois is only down 4. Slightly better Illinois fan turnout today
There are already a ton of OSU fans, and a decent number of Villanova. Also considering on how many seats are still empty, I'm guessing those numbers are going to grow.
Should be great in here for Game 2
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Always have to make it personal. Congrats for consistency. Thanks for the reminder why I tend to disappear and focus on family.
Place is much better when you are present SM.
The personal jabs have gotten worse over the years - but I sense it is starting to get better.
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To better understand everyone’s moral compass here, Juwan Howard is the scum of college sports? We paint him as the target over the Ed Martins or the Bobby D’s the funded OSU football players? We side step the Larry Nassars and Robert Andersons? We’re going to throw out the phrases values and what we permit to allow winning, but gloss over the true scumbag enablers that we’re part of shaping the idea of values? The hypocrisy in those positions is hilarious.
Every fan tries to paint the picture that their program and coach is worth backing and their enemy with the bullseye is the one lacking morals and character. It’s a laughable stance at best and pretentious at worst.
I mean he literally devoted his entire second paragraph to complaining about other people doing the exact same thing that he did over the course of his entire first paragraph. If that's not a blatant lack of self awareness, then I don't know what is.
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Maybe phrased poorly, but you disagree that most fans notice the moral character of opposing teams/coaches more quickly and excuse that of their own? I’ll quickly admit that tendency. Steelers fans ignored a lot of issues with Big B. Ravens fans made excuses for Ray Lewis. I think high levels of skill tend to bring blind eyes. Possibly not blind eyes, but more willingness to accept flaws to win.
Of course most fans tend to do this but I think overall that, on this board, you get a little better.
On Bucknuts or Stadium and Main it is expected.
Now that said, your typical Michigan fan attempt to pretend that the Tattoo scandal at tOSU was in any way equivalent to the Ed Martin scandal at Michigan fails to even rise to the level of being laughable.
The Ed Martin scandal, as ELA put it, was the biggest NCAA scandal since SMU's death penalty while the tattoo scandal at Ohio State involved players trading their own stuff for tattoos and note that selling bowl swag was previously permitted and I believe it is again.
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We could debate the scandals ad nauseum.
That’s fine. The attacks don’t belong here. Yes- there’s a few here that know nothing else. But let’s keep it to those few.
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Amazing foresight by the Texas AD to hire Chris Beard a few years ago in anticipation of this game...
Ha! Indeed.
I'll be attending the Austin FC soccer game this afternoon and then dinner so might not see the first half. Hoping to just be able to make a good showing against your guys.
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I'm in favor of moving them to another thread. Let's just enjoy the tournament. There is plenty of off-season to debate that.
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If you told me Greg Oden was an active NBA player, I'd believe it. He's in great shape. Not a 33ish year old 7 footer with bum knees
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Now that said, your typical Michigan fan attempt to pretend that the Tattoo scandal at tOSU was in any way equivalent to the Ed Martin scandal at Michigan fails to even rise to the level of being laughable.
If that’s how it came across, that wasn’t my intended point. You and I both know those two events are wildly different in scale. My intended point was I find more fault in the Ed Martins than the 19 year old Juwans. Bringing in the Buckeyes was more to place blame on the individual flowing the money and no-work jobs over the players that accepted rewards rather than compare the scandals. Rereading it, I communicated that poorly, but we don’t disagree that the two events are very different nor do we disagree on how big the Ed Martin scandal was.
To HB and others point, my last comment on this thread on this topic. Back to basketball. Big games today!
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Illinois - Houston turned from a snoozer for most of the 1st to a very exciting game.
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OSU fans have arrived and are fully behind the Illini
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Woof. That technical call while hanging on the rim for safety was rough. But I don't really understand why it was only 1 FT.
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OSU fans have arrived and are fully behind the Illini
I'm glad to hear this.
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Nice bench minutes from the freshmen, but probably time to put Curbelo back in.
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Crunch time for the Illini.
They played their way back into it but now they are down nine and just turned it over.
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Hawkins is a truly horrible defender
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Houston was such a weird NCAA case this year. Monster analytics numbers. Bad resume. Lost two starters who helped get those numbers where they were.
I guess 5 is a decent spot for them to be thrown, and Illinois caught the wrong end of that.
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OSU fans have arrived and are fully behind the Illini
Doesn't seem to be helping much.
Here I thought OSU fans were the ones keeping Wolverine FB down all those years, by not rooting for them to defeat all of their other opponents.
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It's some bad luck to draw a potential one seed as a five seed
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I always think of the alternate B1G history where Kelvin Sampson stays off the telephone
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Go Buckeyes!
An Ohio State win here guarantees at least one B1G team in the E8.
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https://twitter.com/clubtrillion/status/1505617940724420608?t=RnSIcTQW1VnLWNRJr4zxhQ&s=19
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Doesn't seem to be helping much.
Here I thought OSU fans were the ones keeping Wolverine FB down all those years, by not rooting for them to defeat all of their other opponents.
Nope, just BS technicals flipping everything in the noon game for the second day in a row.
The officiating is so bad, it has me feeling sorry for UNC and Illinois. Yikes!
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And Iowa women get upset at home by 10 seed Creighton. Wow
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Looks like Ohio State plans to match Novas three point shooting. Bad Plan.
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I'd like OSU to win, as to tamp down Chris Holtmann discussion. However, I think Nova has this.
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I think that it is pretty evident that OSU doesn't belong on the same floor as these guys.
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OK I’m doing the rest of the Buckeye faithful a favor and turn the game off. This is the sixth time I’ve washed them this season and I’ve yet to see them look worthy of being a good high school team. They look the same to me as they have every time I wash them. Good luck!
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Here at the Pittsburgh regional, wearing MSU stuff, a guy in a Duke shirt yelled "Go Duke" at me. I said, plus the Yankees are playing the Tigers in spring training today, so we are head to head across the board
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Not a defensive clinic from Meechie and Key
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I think that it is pretty evident that OSU doesn't belong on the same floor as these guys.
Well at least we will not have to suffer a heartbreaking loss.
I think I'll go start the 2022-2023 B1G Basketball thread.
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EJ Liddell is playing out of his mind. Getting zero help
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I'd like OSU to win, as to tamp down Chris Holtmann discussion. However, I think Nova has this.
It is ok, @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) thinks it is perfectly acceptable to never contend for a league title and never to make the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Others among us feel that it is getting old.
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I think that it is pretty evident that OSU doesn't belong on the same floor as these guys.
Yeah, they don't.
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It is ok, @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) thinks it is perfectly acceptable to never contend for a league title and never to make the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Others among us feel that it is getting old.
Ahh, good. Some more fuel for this stupid fight.
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The good thing about Buckeye fans is our resilience in the face of any adversity
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Nobody is actually still fooled by K right?
https://twitter.com/MattDemps20/status/1505635505421103108?t=p-5zfzcvtEMxzv5hN3VTiA&s=19
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Nobody is actually still fooled by K right?
https://twitter.com/MattDemps20/status/1505635505421103108?t=p-5zfzcvtEMxzv5hN3VTiA&s=19
In the sense of the schtick?
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Good to see the refs stop play right before OSU gets a layup to issue a flop warning
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Nobody is still arguing that Key was a substantial loss right?
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The quality ot Nova's shot-making ability every damn year is impressive.
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In the sense of the schtick?
Yeah the Brotherhood and all of that. He is just Coach Cal who pretends that he's doing all of this, while being holier than thou
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Nobody is still arguing that Key was a substantial loss right?
Game leader in rebounds
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Someone go find HB. Buckeyes definitely in this!
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Game leader in rebounds
A lot of offensive rebounds leading to his own missed outbacks.
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I feel so bad for Kyle Young. Just unbelievably bad luck with all of these concussions.
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Duke by 35
https://twitter.com/mattcharboneau/status/1505643804640129025?t=6j_JAUVVWwnbwG96a9dicQ&s=19
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I feel so bad for Kyle Young. Just unbelievably bad luck with all of these concussions.
He's been the clear #3 today too. Massive loss
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Someone go find HB. Buckeyes definitely in this!
Please don't, we can tell him about it later!
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Think the refs blew that call. Should have been a foul on Nova
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Think the refs blew that call. Should have been a foul on Nova
Gillespie has gotten away with pushing off to create space quite a few times here late as well
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They wouldn't have been even in the game without him, but the missed front end, turnover back to back possession s were killer
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Yeah the Brotherhood and all of that. He is just Coach Cal who pretends that he's doing all of this, while being holier than thou
Yeah. It's funny. A lot of coaches sort of roll that way, but his has been elevated.
Then again, if someone REALLY believes those things, it's because they want to. That student reporter kerfuffle happened in like 1992. Tells you what you need to know.
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All right Sparty I sat on my porch playing videogames and having a glass of wine to purge this Buckeye season from my brain. Let's stuff Duke into a trash can.
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Literally just walked in the door from hitting a bucket of golf balls. Checked the score and it looks like they lost by the same margin they were down when I left.
Did Branham score lol? I’ve watched them six times this season for 5 to 10 minutes each time and I’ve never seen him score lol.
Anyway I can’t imagine how this team won 20 games?
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Well that was fun.
Back to Football.
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Those 4 minutes of good offense were fun
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I think it’s ridiculous to pull these coaches out of huddles during timeouts to interview them. I have to think they all hate that.
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Two fouls on Christie? That might be killer.
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I think it’s ridiculous to pull these coaches out of huddles during timeouts to interview them. I have to think they all hate that.
Also pointless, they never say anything worth listening to
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I think it’s ridiculous to pull these coaches out of huddles during timeouts to interview them. I have to think they all hate that.
I find myself of a split mind.
On the hand of their feelings, I'm sure they hate it, but they hate lots of things. But the two coaches in this game after getting paid $12.7 mil per year, before bonuses, and that's in large part because of this TV show. So what the TV show wants, the TV show usually gets. If they're that hurt, Iron Mountain High could always use an assistant coach.
That said, it add very, VERY little to the viewing experience. Probably makes the games longer too, and without much benefit.
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Also pointless, they never say anything worth listening to
Coach interviews at any point, before, during, after games, on the weekend, during the offseason, are all absolutely worthless. When sports radio/sports podcasts interview a current coach, I move on
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Literally just walked in the door from hitting a bucket of golf balls. Checked the score and it looks like they lost by the same margin they were down when I left.
Did Branham score lol? I’ve watched them six times this season for 5 to 10 minutes each time and I’ve never seen him score lol.
Anyway I can’t imagine how this team won 20 games?
Branham got hot and brought them back into it. Then he got cold and Nova finished them off. Just felt like every time they climbed right back in, Nova made a huge shot or big play. Buckeyes made a great run 2nd half to make it a game. Liddell is a beast. Seems like the Buckeyes were 1 player away.
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If you told me this game was a simulation of a 2000 Final 4 game where ISU didn't blow a double digit lead over MSU in the Elite 8, and instead advanced, I'd believe it.
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I find myself of a split mind.
On the hand of their feelings, I'm sure they hate it, but they hate lots of things. But the two coaches in this game after getting paid $12.7 mil per year, before bonuses, and that's in large part because of this TV show. So what the TV show wants, the TV show usually gets. If they're that hurt, Iron Mountain High could always use an assistant coach.
That said, it add very, VERY little to the viewing experience. Probably makes the games longer too, and without much benefit.
I mean, I get that dealing with the media is part of their job description but does it have to be done during the most critical time of what they are paid to do?
To me, that’s like pulling a surgeon out of the OR so he can watch a 5 minute company mandated video on inclusion and diversity.
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It's embarrassing that they are playing an NCAA tournament game on a court that they can't keep dry, due to there being ice underneath. I just spent the whole weekend watching games in an NHL arena, and while the rims they brought it were sketchy, the court was fine
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Uggghh. Spartans sharp until the last 2 minutes.
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Damn, almost had them
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Branham got hot and brought them back into it. Then he got cold and Nova finished them off. Just felt like every time they climbed right back in, Nova made a huge shot or big play. Buckeyes made a great run 2nd half to make it a game. Liddell is a beast. Seems like the Buckeyes were 1 player away.
Justice Sueing was supposed to be their second best player and they thought he'd develop into a fringe NBA guy. Instead he barely played in two games and then was lost for the season :'(
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Daggummit
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It's fitting to see an offensive hooking call after watching Nova do it all game
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I thought we needed another C+ game from Duke. That was MSUs A+ game. The best game they've played since the win in Madison in mid January. But that was also Dukes best game in weeks. And an above average Duke effort just has too much talent for this MSU team
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Iowa States last win over a tourney team was January 15. Away from Ames? December 4. They lost their Big 12 tourney game by 31. Jesus Wisconsin
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I’d be mad, but when the point guard’s ankle goes 90 degrees and the star is still playing poorly, is what it is.
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And a missed push off to boot.
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I thought we needed another C+ game from Duke. That was MSUs A+ game. The best game they've played since the win in Madison in mid January. But that was also Dukes best game in weeks. And an above average Duke effort just has too much talent for this MSU team
Completely agree. MSU looked great. I think the talent gap was fairly large and Sparty gave them everything they could handle and it’s not like Duke played poorly. Much better game than expected. There was certainly a time in the 2nd half that it appeared Izzo might be the one to end Coach k’s career, which would have been fitting.
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Wisconsin would win going away if they could buy a damn bucket.
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Completely agree. MSU looked great. I think the talent gap was fairly large and Sparty gave them everything they could handle and it’s not like Duke played poorly. Much better game than expected. There was certainly a time in the 2nd half that it appeared Izzo might be the one to end Coach k’s career, which would have been fitting.
Instead hell probably be Ks last win, which is unfortunately more fitting
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Welp
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Wisconsin holds a team to 54 points...
...and loses.
Yeah, that's a Wisconsin thang.
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Well, this has been a pretty atrocious day. Hopefully the boilermakers break the trend.
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Wisconsin holds a team to 54 points...
...and loses.
Yeah, that's a Wisconsin thang.
Wisconsin should have spread their close losses out throughout the season, rather than consolidating them all in March. Just my opinion.
So even if Purdue wins, we will finish below our projected 2nd weekend teams? Should have had Purdue, Wisconsin and Illinois. Wisconsin and Illinois already fell short, but Michigan picked up the slack for one of them
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Wisconsin holds a team to 54 points...
...and loses.
Yeah, that's a Wisconsin thang.
Thin team, point by guard lost, against a top-10 defensive team that plays scrambling and aggressive.
Mix that with a boat load of foul trouble. The myth of strong closing did take a kick in the nads.
This team over achieved this year. And for endings, this was about as justifiable as I’d expect.
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Well, this has been a pretty atrocious day. Hopefully the boilermakers break the trend.
Yeah, disaster day for the B1G.
We really need Purdue to win because they are a lot more likely to keep going than Michigan.
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Purdue off to a wonderful start :smiley_confused1:
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Thin team, point by guard lost, against a top-10 defensive team that plays scrambling and aggressive.
Mix that with a boat load of foul trouble. The myth of strong closing did take a kick in the nads.
This team over achieved this year. And for endings, this was about as justifiable as I’d expect.
Yeah from going to am attempted coup and turning over the roster to where they got, quite the season
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So the final result is the following seeds:
- #3 Purdue, Wisconsin
- #4 Illinois
- #5 Iowa
- #7 Michigan State, Ohio State
- #11 Michigan, Rutgers (as a play-in)
- #12 Indiana (as a play-in)
Based on past history of those seeds, here is what those nine teams should accomplish (NOTE: I'm treating RU as 1/2 of an 11 seed and Indiana as 1/2 of a 12 seed because they have to win a play-in to get to the 64 team bracket and I'm just treating that as a 50/50 proposition).
- 5.07 teams in the R32
- 2.56 teams in the S16
- 0.96 team in the E8
- 0.46 teams in the F4
- 0.21 teams in the NC
- 0.08 NC's
Here is the chart and here is then then the explanation:
[img width=273.429 height=371]https://i.imgur.com/3FMLGeb.png[/img]
- #3 seeds win their R64 game 84.72% of the time. We have two so that should get us 1.69 team in the R32.
- #4 seeds win their R64 game 78.47% of the time. We have one so that should get us 0.78 teams in the R32.
- #5 seeds win their R64 game 64.58% of the time. We have one so that should get us 0.65 teams in the R32. Note that cumulatively these four teams should win barely over three opening games (3.12) so statistically it is fairly likely that one of them will lose.
- #7 seeds win their R64 game 60.42% of the time. We have two so that should get us 1.21 teams in the R32.
- #11 seeds win their R64 game 37.50% of the time. We have 1-1/2 so that should get us 0.56 teams in the R32.
- #12 seeds win their R64 game 35.42% of the time. We have 1/2 so that should get us 0.18 teams in the R32.
- Add that up and you have just over five teams in the R32.
I've used the same table of past results to also calculate the number of S16, E8, F4, NCG, and NC teams. Note that the deeper you get into the tournament the more the expected results are dependent upon the two #3 seeds (PU and UW):
- We have 5.07 teams getting to the R32, the two #3 seeds are just 1/3 of that total.
- We have 2.56 teams making the S16, the two #3 seeds are 41% of that total.
- We have 0.96 teams making the E8, the two #3 seeds are over half of that total.
- We have 0.47 teams making the F4, the two #3 seeds are over half of that total.
- We have 0.21 teams making the NC Game, the two #3 seeds are nearly 3/4 of that total.
- We have 0.08 NC's, the two #3 seeds are nearly 3/4 of that total.
Just bumping this for context.
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Edey is a large human but he looks extra massive tonight.
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I mean, I get that dealing with the media is part of their job description but does it have to be done during the most critical time of what they are paid to do?
To me, that’s like pulling a surgeon out of the OR so he can watch a 5 minute company mandated video on inclusion and diversity.
To the first question, I don't think it does. Not because I care about them in that case, but because it's incredibly not additive to the broadcast. It's in the first half at what, the 16 and 8 timeouts? Not the end of the world. You have assistants, they're often doing a lot of the work.
And, I mean, it's not surgery. It's a game. For TV. A stressful game, but a game.
This is all to say, if there was something that added a ton of insight to the broadcast, that could be done with those moments, they should do it. But there isn't, so they should probably stop.
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Looking at the context that I just posted our seeds should have gotten just barely over five teams to the second round and we got six, so good for the B1G.
We should put roughly two-and-a-half teams in the S16. If Purdue wins we'll be at two so not far behind. If Purdue loses then this Tournament was officially a disaster.
As long as Purdue wins we should be good because the PU/TX winner is effectively automatic to the E8.
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Michigan's bracket does them no favors this year but Purdue has a great set up. They are the highest seed left in their region followed by #4 UCLA then their current opponent, #6 Texas.
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Michigan's bracket does them no favors this year but Purdue has a great set up. They are the highest seed left in their region followed by #4 UCLA then their current opponent, #6 Texas.
Michigan is going to have to beat 6-3-2 to get to an Elite 8. Wisconsin had a 14-11-10 path, and has to be kicking themselves.
As Purdue will if they don't get a Final 4 out of this
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Wisconsin had a 14-11-10 path, and has to be kicking themselves.
This is the #1 most frustrating situation in the tournament. You're a good team, the gods have laid out the red carpet....and your team poops the bed.
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This is the #1 most frustrating situation in the tournament. You're a good team, the gods have laid out the red carpet....and your team poops the bed.
To win the title in 2000, MSU had the hardest possible route as a 1 seed, 16-8-4-2. Then they got to the Final 4 and played an 8 seed they had already beaten 3 times, and a 5 seed.
Then, the next year, they played as easy a road as you'll get as a 1 seed. 16-9-12-11
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Michigan's bracket does them no favors this year but Purdue has a great set up. They are the highest seed left in their region followed by #4 UCLA then their current opponent, #6 Texas.
In fairness, Michigan’s seeding was advantageous to start. Great game 1 matchup and good location. I don’t expect the elite 8 this year, but Michigan hasn’t played their best game yet this tournament either. Need Houstan to show up and Dickinson and Eli to play at the same level as Saturday.
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This is the #1 most frustrating situation in the tournament. You're a good team, the gods have laid out the red carpet....and your team poops the bed.
TBH, I wanted no part of Miami.
I'm pretty confident UW would've won without the injury. UW lost it's second-best or maybe best one-on-one defender and it's best ball-handler and ISU still could hardly pull away. I thought they'd lose to whoever came out of there.
Oh well, them's the breaks.
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In fairness, Michigan’s seeding was advantageous to start. Great game 1 matchup and good location. I don’t expect the elite 8 this year, but Michigan hasn’t played their best game yet this tournament either. Need Houstan to show up and Dickinson and Eli to play at the same level as Saturday.
Round 1, yes. They basically had a home game against a mid-major whose conference got 4 bids, and went 0-4.
Round 2, they played a 3 who should have been 2, if not a 1, and it was probably a tie geographically. Sometimes Rick Barnes trumps all in a single elimination
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So much to like about this Purdue team. Ivey made some key & deep 3’s. Can’t believe how fast that kid is.
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In fairness, Michigan’s seeding was advantageous to start. Great game 1 matchup and good location. I don’t expect the elite 8 this year, but Michigan hasn’t played their best game yet this tournament either. Need Houstan to show up and Dickinson and Eli to play at the same level as Saturday.
Going into the tournament this year I felt like we had half a dozen teams that were good enough on the high side that a second weekend win wouldn't surprise me and yet bad enough on the low side that a first round loss wouldn't either
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As fun as Round 1 upsets are,.I always find myself rooting for chalk in Round 2, because next weekend should be about the best teams. It sucks we have Purdue playing St. Peter's instead of Kentucky. Instead of a top 10 matchup of Auburn-Wisconsin, we have Miami-Iowa State
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As Jamie Dixon closes in on his first Sweet 16 since the buzzer beater Elite 8 loss to Villanova nI believe
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As Jamie Dixon closes in on his first Sweet 16 since the buzzer beater Elite 8 loss to Villanova nI believe
Closes might be strong. Lotta game to go.
Another funny element there. That was Jay Wright's semi-breakthrough, but then Nova won one NCAA game the next four years, missing one tournament. And the two years after that, lost as a 2 and 1 seed in the second round.
And then lordy they broke through.
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Survive and advance.
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I think it's dumb that when the shot clock incorrectly resets, they set it to where it was caught at. I'm guessing Arizona would not have played it that way, had they not looked up and seen a fresh shot clock. I think the game clock, and shot clock, should both go back to where they were when it was incorrectly reset
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Closes might be strong. Lotta game to go.
Another funny element there. That was Jay Wright's semi-breakthrough, but then Nova won one NCAA game the next four years, missing one tournament. And the two years after that, lost as a 2 and 1 seed in the second round.
And then lordy they broke through.
They were in a line of teams I always picked to underachieve on my bracket, until they weren't. It was Florida, then Kansas, then Wisconsin and Villanova. I'm not sure I have a go-to right now, but Illinois and Iowa are right there unfortunately. Maybe along with Tennessee?
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Inexcusable to not be aware of the time there
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We haven’t had the buzzer beaters everyone loves but the games the last 4 days have been really competitive. Really intense competition.
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We haven’t had the buzzer beaters everyone loves but the games the last 4 days have been really competitive. Really intense competition.
I'm not sure we had the moment, that is going to make the montage years from now, but Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday all delivered. Friday was the only day there really did not
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Announcers kept saying Arizona dominated the inside, but TCU racked up EIGHTEEN offensive boards.
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I think Elite 8 is their destiny, and where it stops. But, hope springs eternal.
Oops! Iowa wbb - my optimism screwed up.
My little sister was on the team in the late '70s/early '80s. The late '70s coach was really good and they had a good team with a 17-9 record. The early '80s replacement coach she had was a horrible disaster who wanted to only play her scholarship players, who were horrible. I think they went 3-22. Ugh!
As sometimes happens after one's era, in this case my baby sister's, ends, disaster led to greatness and Coach C. Vivian Stringer. My little sister graduated before great fortune struck.
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That was a tough game to watch. UW couldn't do anything. You could tell Johnny was still hurting, and then when Hep went down, you could tell it was over. Really could have used Bowman last night, but he's home in Detroit.
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2 teams into the S16, with a good chance to put at least 1 in the E8 isn't too bad. Purdue could win the whole thing if they can put things together, but they do still have too many lulls.
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Conrgrats to Purdue.
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Conrgrats to Purdue.
Good battle by Texas.
Sorry to be the team that eliminated your guys, 94, but... they were in our way :)
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F Nebraska.
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I am rooting hard for Purdue and Gonzaga, mostly because I want to see Chet Holmgren guard Zach Edey. Purdue should get by the Peacocks, though both North Carolina and UCLA would provide a stiff challenge. On the other side I would have been rooting for Houston, but I'm afraid Kelvin Sampson would go fully nude if they get to the Final Four.
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This year's first two rounds compared to the average:
- #1 seeds advance to the R32 99.32% of the time and to the S16 85.14% of the time. This year it was 100% and 75%.
- #2 seeds advance to the R32 93.24% of the time and to the S16 62.84% of the time. This year it was 75% and 50%.
- #3 seeds advance to the R32 85.14% of the time and to the S16 52.03% of the time. This year it was 100% and 50%.
- #4 seeds advance to the R32 79.05% of the time and to the S16 47.30% of the time. This year it was 100% and 75%.
- #5 seeds advance to the R32 64.19% of the time and to the S16 33.78% of the time. This year it was 50% and 25%.
- #6 seeds advance to the R32 61.49% of the time and to the S16 29.05% of the time. This year it was 25% and 0%.
- #7 seeds advance to the R32 60.81% of the time and to the S16 18.92% of the time. This year it was 75% and 0%.
- #8 seeds advance to the R32 47.97% of the time and to the S16 10.14% of the time. This year it was 25% and 25%.
- #9 seeds advance to the R32 52.03% of the time and to the S16 4.73% of the time. This year it was 75% and 0%.
- #10 seeds advance to the R32 39.19% of the time and to the S16 16.22% of the time. This year it was 25% and 25%.
- #11 seeds advance to the R32 38.51% of the time and to the S16 17.57% of the time. This year it was 75% and 50%.
- #12 seeds advance to the R32 35.81% of the time and to the S16 14.86% of the time. This year it was 50% and 0%.
- #13 seeds advance to the R32 20.95% of the time and to the S16 4.05% of the time. This year it was 0% and 0%.
- #14 seeds advance to the R32 14.86% of the time and to the S16 1.35% of the time. This year it was 0% and 0%.
- #15 seeds advance to the R32 6.76% of the time and to the S16 2.03% of the time. This year it was 25% and 25%.
- #16 seeds advance to the R32 0.68% of the time and to the S16 0.00% of the time. This year it was 0% and 0%.
The biggest variance from average was the #11 seeds winning three out of four of the 6/11 games and then two of them going on to beat #3.
The next biggest variance from average is the #15 seed upset. Combined with last year it is even more striking. Prior to the 2021 Tournament the #15 seeds had only knocked off #2 eight times and they had only followed that up with a win over 7/10 once. In the last two tournaments they have done both of those things twice each.
The #4 seeds did surprisingly well. All four of them won their first game and three of the four are in the S16.
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(https://i.imgur.com/P83oPUd.png)
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St. Peters head to the Sweet 16. Second straight year for a 15 seed. The times they are a changing.
I'm going to see a lot more evidence before I conclude that the #13's and below are in fact getting better.
In my previous post I noted that #15's have done VERY well the past two years compared to the long-term average:
- Prior to the 2021 Tournament they had only eight wins over #2 in 35 tries (roughly one every four years), they have two in the last two years.
- Prior to the 2021 Tournament they had made the S16 only once ever, they have two in the last two years.
That said, if the #15's were getting better or the #2's were getting worse then I would expect to see that bleed over to the #16's, #14's, and #13's also getting better and/or the #1's, #3's, and #4's getting worse but I'm not seeing that. Instead, Saint Peters' win over Kentucky was the only win by a team seeded #13 or lower in the first round and obviously their win over Murray State was the only win by a team seeded #13 or lower in the second round.
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Worth noting that every 13 seed was within single digits of the four seeds. Zero blowouts in that group. Not sure how that compares to normal. Still, I am compelled to find that the gap has shrunk.
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Eh, the sample size is too small IMHO to really state that the Cinderellas are anywhere near closer to winning the prince's heart at the ball, just because a few of them are proving to be hot by trailer park standards...
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Worth noting that every 13 seed was within single digits of the four seeds. Zero blowouts in that group. Not sure how that compares to normal. Still, I am compelled to find that the gap has shrunk.
I don't track scores for three reasons:
- I think it is misleading to do it objectively just by final differential because some close games become not close when the leader makes a ton of FT's and some not close games become close when the leader rests their starters and the loser makes a big run at the end to make it look respectable.
- It is just a whole lot more work then simply tracking W's an L's which are also completely objective.
- Scores matter in a one-game sense, but I think when you look at the bigger picture the objective question of how many wins did they get tells you everything you need to know. The #13 seeds went 0-4 in the first round this year. If all four games were close (just taking your word for it, I don't care) and that continues then #13's will win some of those eventually (not this year, but in general).
In the 37 tournaments since expansion (1985-2022 not incl 2020):
- #13 has knocked off #4 31 times, not quite once per year.
- #14 has knocked off #3 22 times, a little better than every other year.
- #15 has knocked off #2 10 times, a little better than once every four years.
- #16 has knocked off #1 once, once every 37 years.
In the last two years:
- #13 won twice (both in 2021), that is about average for the two years.
- #14 won once (last year), that is about average for the two years.
- #15 won twice (once each year), that is a lot better than average.
- #16 went 0-8, that is about average.
So over the last two years the #15 seeds are considerably ahead of their long-term average but there is zero bleed-over to improvement among the #13's, #14's, and #16's. They are all right about at their averages.
If you go back and add in 2019:
- #13 won thrice (once in 2019, twice in 2021), slightly above average.
- #14 won once (in 2021), slightly below average.
- #15 won twice (2021 and 2022), better than average.
- #16 went 0-12, that is about average.
So over the last three tournaments the #15 seeds are above their average while the #13's are slightly above their average and the #14's are slightly below theirs so that washes out and the #16's are about at their average.
I still don't see this bleed-over to improved #13's, #14's, and #16's.
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Eh, the sample size is too small IMHO to really state that the Cinderellas are anywhere near closer to winning the prince's heart at the ball, just because a few of them are proving to be hot by trailer park standards...
It is a small sample size, but I have a hard time with the argument that the talent at the top of college basketball hasn't eroded over the last thirty years. Doesn't match with what my eyes are telling me.
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Eh, the sample size is too small IMHO to really state that the Cinderellas are anywhere near closer to winning the prince's heart at the ball, just because a few of them are proving to be hot by trailer park standards...
And that is really the point as far as I am concerned. The #13's and below can win in the trailer park (first weekend) once in a while but we've yet to see one win a second weekend game.
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It is a small sample size, but I have a hard time with the argument that the talent at the top of college basketball hasn't eroded over the last thirty years. Doesn't match with what my eyes are telling me.
maybe not eroded but I think with the Portal the talent will spread out a bit. I think the success some programs are seeing will cause more movement of talent and the whole tournament will be less predictable going forward (if it ever was predictable)
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It is a small sample size, but I have a hard time with the argument that the talent at the top of college basketball hasn't eroded over the last thirty years. Doesn't match with what my eyes are telling me.
I dunno... None of these teams make the F4... They don't even make the E8 (per Medina's point), and barely ever make the second weekend.
If the talent at the top erodes, what it would probably be shown as is a dilution of the seeds that make the F4, the championship game, and the winner of the championship.
I don't know if that's happened... But if 3 and 4 seeds are starting to get to the F4 in increasing numbers, and reaching the final game in increasing numbers, and winning it all in increasing numbers--I'd call that an erosion of the top-end talent.
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It is a small sample size, but I have a hard time with the argument that the talent at the top of college basketball hasn't eroded over the last thirty years. Doesn't match with what my eyes are telling me.
How do you define talent here? Are you saying athletic ability, or the ability to fundamentally play the game well? Curious because my brother and I had this conversation and I think a lot of these kids get by on being so athletic it attracts them to the top tier programs, but mid level programs find the kids that have mid-level talent, but work their tails off to be fundamentally sound and cohesive as a team. Curious what others see/mean by eroded.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOWR-obX0AcX_Q_?format=jpg&name=small)
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How do you define talent here? Are you saying athletic ability, or the ability to fundamentally play the game well? Curious because my brother and I had this conversation and I think a lot of these kids get by on being so athletic it attracts them to the top tier programs, but mid level programs find the kids that have mid-level talent, but work their tails off to be fundamentally sound and cohesive as a team. Curious what others see/mean by eroded.
Well just in general the top recruits play much less, if at all. Even if everyone works at the same level, a mid-level guy who works for four years will have some advantages over first year players, even the very talented. You put together a whole team of those guys, you've got something. As the top comes down, the gap is narrowed. So it should be a lot less surprising to see 15 seeds make the Sweet Sixteen, or 16 seeds win, or to have a lot of variance among who makes the finals.
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I don't think you are ever going to see bleed over into the 16 seeds, simply because the gap is so large. Just like there is a gap between about 12 and 13, due to legitimately good mid majors, whose numbers hold them back due to scheduling limitations, I think the gap between 15 and 16 is also big. Those are almost always trash conference champs, and middling low majors who got hot for one weekend.
That's why I did not think the 16 over 1 would ever happen. The 15s had some teams that could be seeded higher, if they had the opportunity. The 16s were not
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOWR-obX0AcX_Q_?format=jpg&name=small)
Kansas could realistically win the national championship with Providence being their toughest opponent (by seeding).
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a couple 16 seeds have put a real scare into a couple of #1s
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Good battle by Texas.
Sorry to be the team that eliminated your guys, 94, but... they were in our way :)
It's Beard's first year at Texas. I didn't expect a deep run this year but things are looking up in Austin.
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I don't think we had an NBA thread this year, so here it is. I feel like because LeBron has been on the radar since he was 15, we forget how old he is. He is in his 19th NBA season. At this age, MJ was in the middle of his second retirement. Jordan played 13 seasons with the Bulls, and one was basically just him joining a playoff run. Even comparing him to Kobe, he's right where Kobe was in his final NBA season, after basically missing all of the prior two seasons. What he is doing at his age, is absolutely insane
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It is a small sample size, but I have a hard time with the argument that the talent at the top of college basketball hasn't eroded over the last thirty years. Doesn't match with what my eyes are telling me.
I think your eyes are telling you what you want to see. I like evidence not hunches. I get hunches too but as everyone here knows, I'm a stats guy so when I get a hunch I go looking for ways to test it.
The evidence simply doesn't back up your hunch. From my post right above what I quoted here:
If you go back and add in 2019:
- #13 won thrice (once in 2019, twice in 2021), slightly above average.
- #14 won once (in 2021), slightly below average.
- #15 won twice (2021 and 2022), better than average.
- #16 went 0-12, that is about average.
So over the last three tournaments the #15 seeds are above their average while the #13's are slightly above their average and the #14's are slightly below theirs so that washes out and the #16's are about at their average.
So over the last three first weekends of the tournament played (2019-2022 not incl 2020) the #13-16 seeds are a combined 6-42 in the first round for an average of 2-14 per year for a percentage of 0.125. If you go back to all 37 first weekends of the tournament played since expansion (1985-2022 not incl 2020) they are 64-528 for a percentage of 0.108. That IS improvement but here is where the sample size problem comes in, that is less than one game over three years (48 games). Ie, the percentages would be:
- 7-41 is 0.146
- 6-42 is 0.125
- 5-43 is 0.104
So the long-term, 37 tournament average since expansion is for the #13's and below to win just over 5 games in three tournaments (5.19) to be precise) and in the last three tournaments they have won six. A difference of just 0.81 out of 48 games is simply not enough to signify a trend.
Another, perhaps simpler way to look at it is this:
Over the 37 tournaments since expansion the #13's and below have won 64 opening round games. That is an average of just under two per year and in the last three years:
- One in 2022 (#15 St. Peters over #2 Kentucky)
- Four in 2021 (#15 Oral Roberts over #2 tOSU, #14 Abilene Christian over #3 Texas, #13 Ohio-U over #4 Virginia, #13 N. Texas over #4 Purdue)
- One in 2019 (#13 UC Irvine over #4 Kansas State)
The bottom four seeds get 16 cracks a year at this. In 37 years they've averaged just under 2-14 which is also what they averaged over the last three tournaments. If we start seeing them consistently winning three or four games a year that is one thing but so far, we haven't.
Searching for evidence of this trend that you think you see I went back further:
- 2018, 3-13: The #13's and below went 3-13 in the first round. #16 UMBC had that once-ever #16 over #1 Virginia monster upset but the #15's and #14's went 0-fer. Two #13's did knock off #4's (Buffalo over Zona, Marshall over Wichita State)
- 2017, 0-16
- 2016, 3-13: (#15 MTSU over #2 Michigan State, #14 SFA over #3 West Virginia, #13 Hawaii over #4 California)
So going all the way back to the last six first weekends played the #13's and below are 12-84 in their first round games, that same 0.125 percentage and almost identical to their 37 year record.
If these bottom seeds were getting better relative to the top seeds they'd be winning more games and they simply aren't.
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I don't think you are ever going to see bleed over into the 16 seeds, simply because the gap is so large. Just like there is a gap between about 12 and 13, due to legitimately good mid majors, whose numbers hold them back due to scheduling limitations, I think the gap between 15 and 16 is also big. Those are almost always trash conference champs, and middling low majors who got hot for one weekend.
That's why I did not think the 16 over 1 would ever happen. The 15s had some teams that could be seeded higher, if they had the opportunity. The 16s were not
You are probably right because there are always going to be some, as you put it, "trash conference champs, and middling low majors who got hot for one weekend" but it is hard to test this because the #1 seeds are extremely good. I can test/prove this gap between the #1's and everybody else, for example, based on their round-by-round performance. #1 seeds have a winning percentage of at least .600 in each round:
- .9932 in the first round, 147-1
- .8571 in the second round, 126-21
- .7937 in the S16, 100-26
- .600 in the E8, 60-40
- .617 in the F4, 37-23
- .622 in the NC, 23-14
Note that the percentages for #1 seeds in the F4 and NC are held back by the fact that they are frequently playing each other and obviously when two #1 seeds clash the #1 seeds as a group go .500.
Every other seed is below .500 in at least one of the rounds (usually the round where they run into the #1's:
- #2's are sub .500 in the last three rounds with their worst being .414 in the F4
- #3's are sub .500 in the S16, E8, and NC with the worst being .364 in the NC
- #4's are sub .500 in the S16, F4, and NC with the worst being .231 in the F4
- #6's are sub .500 in the second round, the S16, the E8, and the NC with the worst being .200 in the E8
- #7's are sub .500 in the middle four rounds with the worst being .300 in the E8
- #8's are sub .500 in the first two rounds and the NC with the worst being .211 in the second round
- None of the other seeds have ever won a NC so they are obviously .000 at some point (NC for #5's; F4 for #9-11; E8 for #12; S16 for #13-15; second round for #16).
I'd also point out that #1 seeds make up:
- More than 40% of F4 participants, 60 of 144. Second most is #2 with 29.
- More than half of NC participants, 37 of 72. Second most is #2 with 12.
- Nearly two-thirds of NC's, 23 of 36. Second most is #2 with 5.
Those gaps are humongous: #1's have twice as many F4 appearances as any other seed, more than three times as many NC appearances as any other seed, and nearly five times as many NC's as any other seed.
Like you, I never thought I'd see a #16 beat a #1 because of the significance of both the gap between #1 and #2 AND between #16 and #15. That said, there have now been 148 #1 vs #16 games and it has happened once so I think it just falls in the category of broken clocks and whatnot. Given enough chances the little giants will eventually have a REALLY good day and knock off the favorite.
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I mean also you could just take the gap on KenPom between the average 15 and 16 seeds, and I would bet it would be the largest gap between seeds at any level
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If Kansas or AZ win it all, will they be stripped of the title shortly thereafter?
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@MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572)
I decided to look a little deeper and I found something that I thought was interesting. While the #13-16 seeds are NOT significantly improved from their long-term average, they ARE significantly improved from their performance about 10-15 years ago.
The attached chart shows the total first round wins by the #13-16 seeds in rolling five (green line at the bottom), ten (red line in the middle), and 15 (blue line at the top) year periods. Ie:
- The far left green dot shows that the #13-16 seeds won 10 games in the first five years (1985-1989) of the expanded tournament, then the next green dot shows that they also won 10 games in the five years from 1986-1990, etc.
- The far left red dot shows that the #13-16 seeds won 18 games in the first 10 years (1985-1994) of the expanded tournament, then the next red dot shows that they won 20 games in the 10 years from 1986-1995, etc.
- The far left blue dot shows that the #13-16 seeds won 28 games in the first 15 years (1985-1999) of the expanded tournament, then the next blue dot shows that they won 27 games in the 15 years from 1986-2000, etc.
What I thought was interesting was that while we aren't currently all that far above the long-term averages, the #13-16 seeds all bottomed out in roughly the early 2000's. They were winning at a higher clip in the late 80's and 90's and they are back to about the same pace now that they were at back then but in between they won a LOT less.
The five-year rolling line:
- Maxed out at 12 wins in the five years from 2012-2016 (an average of 2.4 wins per year)
- Was also at 11 wins in the five years from 1987-1991 and 2016-2021
- Bottomed out at just five wins in the five years from 2000-2004 and also 2003-2007 (average of 1.0 wins per year)
The 10-year rolling line:
- Maxed out at 21 wins in the 10 years from 2012-2022 and also 21 wins from 2011-2021 (an average of 2.1 wins per year)
- Was also at 20 wins in the 10 years from 1986-1995
- Bottomed out at just 12 wins in the 10 years from 2000-2009 and also 12 wins from 2002-2011 (an average of 1.2 wins per year)
The 15-year rolling line:
- Maxed out at 28 wins in the first 15 expanded tournaments (1985-1999) and also in the 15 years from 1987-2001 and again for 2006-2021 (average of 1.9 wins per year)
- Was also at 27 wins in the 15 years from 1986-2000 and again from 2007-2022
- Bottomed out at just 21 wins in the 15 years from 1993-2007 and again for 1994-2008 and again for 1996-2010 and again for 1997-2011 (average of 1.4 wins per year)
Conclusion:
The #13-16 seeds are not significantly up from their long-term average of just under two wins per tournament opening round but they are up from bottoming out in the early 2000's.
I really have no idea why the #1-4 seeds were more dominant in the 2000's than they were in the 1980's, 1990's, and 2010's.
It honestly could just be random statistical "noise". Looking at the 15 year line, the total difference from best to worst for the #13-16 seeds is only half a game per year. Basically a few buzzer-beaters falling for the underdogs (or not falling for the favorites) in the 80's, 90's and 2010's and a few buzzer-beaters falling for the favorites (or not falling for the underdogs) in the 2000's is enough to explain that difference.
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Arkansas up 6 on the Zags at the under 8 TO...
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I really don’t understand why they continue to give Brandon Johns, jr so much playing time. A ton of missed assignments on D leading to 2 open 3’s, couple turnovers and missed open shots and free throws. A complete liability and still playing him. Why Terrance Williams doesn’t get more playing time than him blows my mind.
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The thing about 16 over 1 is that it wasn't done in dramatic last minute fashion or some fluke possession. Umbc ran them off the court. All the other close calls, Georgetown, Purdue, OU. Etc were the usual late game span where the underdog craps its pants and the 1 seed is in beast mode.
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speaking of #1s going down
the Zags are out
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Well down to Purdue. Let’s go Boilermakers.
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Well down to Purdue. Let’s go Boilermakers.
You still have to love the madness of March. I don't want to go back through this thread to find it but when RU got a play-in you were legitimately thinking that Michigan wouldn't even get into the tournament and less than two weeks later your guys were one of the last 16 teams standing.
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speaking of #1s going down
the Zags are out
I absolutely hate Gonzaga so I cheer every year when they get eliminated!
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(https://d3r15i91mdrm4u.cloudfront.net/s3/villanova.com/custompages/gallery/Villanova_Cheer_and_Mascot_02_27_2018_c-cheer/thumbs/_big_10157425.jpeg?width=768&height=768&mode=crop&anchor=topcenter)
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is this the Hotties thread?
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You still have to love the madness of March. I don't want to go back through this thread to find it but when RU got a play-in you were legitimately thinking that Michigan wouldn't even get into the tournament and less than two weeks later your guys were one of the last 16 teams standing.
Ha. You’re not wrong. It’s always tough when your team’s season is over when you truly just love watching the game. Roller coaster season for sure and really going to miss seeing Eli Brooks play. Incredibly underrated Wolverine. To your point, March madness is crazy. There’s always a surprise and it’s always so much fun.
on a negative side, I just can’t understand what the plan was tonight with player rotation. Villanova was the better team but that was a C effort from Michigan at best.
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is this the Hotties thread?
I knew that you were going to say that.
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Dook escapes.
But looks like Zona goin' down.
And that's all the upsets we need in the S16...
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Former South Carolina head coach Frank Martin has landed a new gig as leader of the UMass Minutemen.
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Dook escapes.
But looks like Zona goin' down.
And that's all the upsets we need in the S16...
Very unusual to be down to just one #1 seed already. Average composition of the E8 in the prior 36 tournaments:
- 2.78 #1 seeds: 100 in 36 tournaments
- 1.81 #2 seeds: 65 in 36 tournaments
- 1.03 #3 seeds: 37 in 36 tournaments
- 0.58 #4 seeds: 21 in 36 tournaments
- 0.25 #5 seeds: 9 in 36 tournaments
- 0.42 #6 seeds: 15 in 36 tournaments
- 0.28 #7 seeds: 10 in 36 tournaments
- 0.22 #8 seeds: 8 in 36 tournaments
- 0.11 #9 seeds: 4 in 36 tournaments
- 0.22 #10 seeds: 8 in 36 tournaments
- 0.25 #11 seeds: 9 in 36 tournaments
- 0.06 #12 seeds: 2 in 36 tournaments
Basically that works out to:
- Six top-4 seeds
- One #5, 6, or 7
- One #8-12
This year we have:
- 0 or 1 #1 seeds depending on Kansas/Providence
- 2 #2 seeds
- 0 or 1 #3 seeds depending on Purdue/St. Peters
- 1, 2, or 3 #4 seeds depending on UCLA/UNC and Kansas/Providence
- 1 #5 seed
- 0 #6 seeds
- 0 #7 seeds
- 0 or 1 #8 seeds depending on UCLA/UNC
- 0 or 1 #10 seeds depending on ISU/Miami
- 0 or 1 #11 seeds depending on ISIU/Miami
- 0 #12 seeds
- 0 or 1 #15 seeds depending on Purdue/St. Peters
Compared to the average as I laid it out above:
- Top-4 seeds: Typically there are six. We already have three and one more is automatic (winner of #1 Kansas vs #4 Providence). If Purdue and UCLA both win we'll be right at the average. If one or both lose we'll be below the average.
- #5, #6, and #7 seeds: Typically there is one. We have one and that is that because no more are still playing.
- #8-12 seeds: Typically there is one. There will be at least one this year (winner of #10 Miami vs #11 ISU). If UNC beats UCLA, we'll have two.
- #13 and below: In 36 years there hasn't been one and there will not be this year either unless St. Peters manages to upset Purdue.
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@betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19)
After this year we'll hear no more talk about how Purdue always gets the best possible seed in each round of the tournament.
https://youtu.be/j3CANELyPo0
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@betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19)
After this year we'll hear no more talk about how Purdue always gets the best possible seed in each round of the tournament.
https://youtu.be/j3CANELyPo0
Yeah, but I'm a Purdue fan so I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop. I've heard all week about these players from NY and NJ who are scared of nobody. Thinking the odds are no worse than 5:1 that someone pulls out a shiv and sends Ivey to the ER with a stab wound...
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What an embarrassment.
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Welp
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St. Peter was a pretty important person to God, as it turns out
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What an embarrassment.
As a league.
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apparently the committee really screwed up
that squad doesn't look or play like a #15 seed
should easily have been an 11 or 12
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8 v 15. Just looks hilarious to see that in an E8 game. It's like a 1-7 leave in bowling.
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apparently the committee really screwed up
that squad doesn't look or play like a #15 seed
should easily have been an 11 or 12
Eh, the numbers would disagree. They were properly seeded
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Don't you know 2-3 games should be valued over a sample size of 30?!?!?!
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As a league.
Hey, some teams performed to or above (Michigan) seed!
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apparently the committee really screwed up
that squad doesn't look or play like a #15 seed
should easily have been an 11 or 12
But they did for all of the season up until they were seeded.
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As a league.
I used to care about the league element, less so as things roll on.
How teams do in the dance doesn't tell me a ton other than how teams do in the dance. Which carries its own weight, but if you're a good league, you'll be prone to years like this. I suppose I would've felt better if it was UW losing to Miami last night, but is what it is.
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I used to care about the league element, less so as things roll on.
How teams do in the dance doesn't tell me a ton other than how teams do in the dance. Which carries its own weight, but if you're a good league, you'll be prone to years like this. I suppose I would've felt better if it was UW losing to Miami last night, but is what it is.
And really from an optics standpoint the issue was 2 of the top 3 (Wisconsin and Illinois) underperformed relative to seed, and Purdue performed to seed, but lost to a 15 seed, with the top 5 seeds in their region cleared out.
If Wisconsin and Illinois had performed to seed (reach a Sweet 16), but MSU and OSU hadn't (lost a 7-10 game), that would have looked better from a narrative standpoint.
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And really from an optics standpoint the issue was 2 of the top 3 (Wisconsin and Illinois) underperformed relative to seed, and Purdue performed to seed, but lost to a 15 seed, with the top 5 seeds in their region cleared out.
If Wisconsin and Illinois had performed to seed (reach a Sweet 16), but MSU and OSU hadn't (lost a 7-10 game), that would have looked better from a narrative standpoint.
I more care about the narrative. I prefer when the league does well in the tourney so League bubble teams are more likely to get in future years, like Michigan this year.
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Yeah, I think that's fair. They're a tough team, and their draw doesn't look too bad.
I'd say that Purdue has the highest ceiling of any B1G team--their ceiling is winning the whole damn thing. Unfortunately they've come up short every time they've played with something on the line; lost to Rutgers when they got their first #1 AP rank in school history, lost to Wisconsin when a win would basically seal a share of the B1G regular season (and then lost @MSU to follow it up and lose a shot at a shared title), and lost in the BTTCG to salvage the conference slate with a Big Ten Tournament championship.
I just don't have any trust that Purdue can play to their ceiling when the brightest of bright lights come on.
This was sadly prophetic.
Purdue only lost eight times all season and five of those were:
- To Rutgers when ranked #1 for the first time.
- To Wisconsin when a win would basically have sealed a share of the league.
- To MSU when a win would have a shared title.
- To Iowa for the B1G Tournament Championship.
- To St. Peters when essentially gifted a Final Four on a silver platter.
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I more care about the narrative. I prefer when the league does well in the tourney so League bubble teams are more likely to get in future years, like Michigan this year.
The performance problem wasn't from the bubble teams, which is unfortunate from the narrative perspective
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This was sadly prophetic.
Purdue only lost eight times all season and five of those were:
- To Rutgers when ranked #1 for the first time.
- To Wisconsin when a win would basically have sealed a share of the league.
- To MSU when a win would have a shared title.
- To Iowa for the B1G Tournament Championship.
- To St. Peters when essentially gifted a Final Four on a silver platter.
In the 3 banner era (Conference title, Conference tourney title, FF/NC), so going back to 1998, this Purdue team has to be the highest rated to not get one right?
Did that Wisconsin team that was #1 late in the year, but was stuck behind Greg Oden, and then got upset in the opening weekend win the BTT? Otherwise that might be the answer
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The performance problem wasn't from the bubble teams, which is unfortunate from the narrative perspective
Yep, from the perspective or reasonable expectations the lower seeds did great really. It was the upper seeds that didn't.
The following is based on past performance for the seed in question:
We had two #3 seeds, Purdue and Wisconsin:
- #3's win their opener 85.14% of the time and both of ours won, so far so good.
- #3's make the S16 52.03% of the time and one of ours did, so far so good.
- #3's make the E8 25% of the time and neither of ours did. This wouldn't be so bad if Purdue had lost to #2 Kentucky but they didn't. Instead Purdue became the only team in NCAA Tournament history to lose a second-weekend game to a bottom-4 seed.
We had one #4 seed, Illinois:
- #4's win their opener 79.05% of the time and ours did, so far so good.
- #4's make the S16 47.30% of the time and ours didn't. That isn't too bad especially with the loss being to a probably underseeded #5 Houston.
we had one #5 seed, Iowa:
- #5's win their opener 64.19% of the time and ours lost.
We had two #7 seeds, Ohio State and Michigan State:
- #7's win their opener 60.81% of the time and both of ours did, so far so good.
- #7's make the S16 18.92% of the time and neither of ours did. That isn't too bad especially with both losses being to #2 seeds who made the F4.
We had 1.5 #11 seeds, Michigan (full) and Rutgers (half):
- Rutgers lost their play-in which is a 50/50 proposition so that isn't too bad.
- #11 seeds win their opener 38.51% of the time and one of ours did, so far so good.
- #11 seeds make the S16 17.57% of the time and one of ours did, so far so good.
- #11's make the E8 6.08% of the time and ours didn't. That is not bad at all especially considering the loss was to a #2 seed who made the F4.
We had 1/2 of a #12 seed, Indiana:
- Indiana won their play-in which is a 50/50 proposition, so far so good.
- #12 seeds win their opener 35.81% of the time and ours lost. That isn't too bad.
Our top-4 teams (#3 UW, #3 PU, #4 IL, #5 IA) *SHOULD* (based on past performance of seed) have generated:
- 3.13 teams in the R32, they got 3. Not too bad.
- 1.85 teams in the S16, they got 1. Not good.
- 0.72 teams in the E8, they got 0. Not good.
- 0.36 teams in the F4, they got 0. Not good but not too bad, it rounds to zero, wouldn't be so bad with better losses.
Our bottom-5 teams (#7 MSU, #7 tOSU, #11 Michigan, #11 Indiana, #12 Rutgers) *SHOULD* (based on past performance of seed) have generated:
- 1.97 teams in the R32, they got 2, so far so good.
- 0.72 teams in the S16, they got 0. Not good.
- 0.23 teams in the E8, not good but not too bad, it rounds to zero.
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In the 3 banner era (Conference title, Conference tourney title, FF/NC), so going back to 1998, this Purdue team has to be the highest rated to not get one right?
Did that Wisconsin team that was #1 late in the year, but was stuck behind Greg Oden, and then got upset in the opening weekend win the BTT? Otherwise that might be the answer
That Wisconsin team finished 6th in the AP poll. Purdue was 10th.
That UW team was interesting. They were kinda ragged down the last half of the conference season. IU snapped a long winning streak. Then they won five in a row against the soft underbelly of the league.
MSU kinda slapped them in EL, then they lost by a hair at OSU (though it took a lot of luck to be that close late). It took about everything to beat MSU on Senior Day, and after a BTT shellacking vs OSU, UW played awful against a 16 seed before playing not super vs UNLV, which banged home 10 3s on 20 tries.
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My Purdue fandom is broken after that.
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My Purdue fandom is broken after that.
Don't worry, football is around the corner.
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Don't worry, football is around the corner.
That's actually kinda funny, because it was an ongoing joke a decade-or-so ago that Purdue could never have both a successful football and basketball season in the same year. As soon as the final second ticked off on the Tennessee Music City Bowl, I knew things were going downhill for Painter's squad.
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That's actually kinda funny, because it was an ongoing joke a decade-or-so ago that Purdue could never have both a successful football and basketball season in the same year. As soon as the final second ticked off on the Tennessee Music City Bowl, I knew things were going downhill for Painter's squad.
Wasn't the Drew Brees Rose Bowl year the same year Gene Keady just had to beat an 8 seed Wisconsin to get to his only Final 4?
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That Wisconsin team finished 6th in the AP poll. Purdue was 10th.
That UW team was interesting. They were kinda ragged down the last half of the conference season. IU snapped a long winning streak. Then they won five in a row against the soft underbelly of the league.
MSU kinda slapped them in EL, then they lost by a hair at OSU (though it took a lot of luck to be that close late). It took about everything to beat MSU on Senior Day, and after a BTT shellacking vs OSU, UW played awful against a 16 seed before playing not super vs UNLV, which banged home 10 3s on 20 tries.
I also think that 2006 through 2008 (?) was as weak a period as we've seen in college basketball. Florida had an all-time team, which helped covers some things up, just like Miami football did in the 2001 football season.
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I also think that 2006 through 2008 (?) was as weak a period as we've seen in college basketball. Florida had an all-time team, which helped covers some things up, just like Miami football did in the 2001 football season.
That just sucked for tOSU. That Oden team was great and got to the CG but banged into the only defending champs in a generation to bring back all their starters.
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Xavier went from top 5 seed to the NIT, thanks to a massive collapse...and the won the NIT.
The NIT became a very fun tournament, once they added in the regular season low major auto bids, and seeded the bracket, rather than the old premade TV matchups. But the transfer portal has a little bit ruined it. It went from a nice place for young high major teams who just missed the tournament, to get a nice taste of postseason basketball, to just a meaningless mashup of teams who will both lose and gain a ton of players through the portal
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Johnny Davis to the NBA. It's now official.
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UNC fans have to love being Coach K's last loss.
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In the 36 Tournaments since expansion so far (not counting 2022 to be finished tonight or 2020 cancelled due to COVID) the Champions have been:
- 23 #1 seeds
- 5 #2 seeds
- 4 #3 seeds
- 1 #4 seed
- 0 #5 seeds
- 1 #6 seed
- 1 #7 seed
- 1 #8 seed
- 0 #9-16 seeds
Carolina is the fourth #8 seed to make the CG, the previous three went 1-2.
Kansas is the 38th #1 seed to make the CG, the previous 37 went 23-14.
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This shit is on TBS?
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and TNT and TruTV
but, NOT CBS
great
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The same reason they stopped putting the football playoffs on ABC
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so the high def resolution would SUCK?
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ouch, that's a buzzkill. no 1080 in Iowa?
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on ABC, CBS, ESPN, NBC, ESPN2
not so much on the lesser channels that don't usually carry live major sports
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well, it's a game
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well, it's a game
Heck of a game!
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Found myself torn between rooting for a cheater and rooting for a fairly undeserving national champion
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Found myself torn between rooting for a cheater and rooting for a fairly undeserving national champion another cheater.
Fixed that for ya.
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Fixed that for ya.
Couldn't do either, so I didn't watch.
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How long before Kansas is stripped of this championship?
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probably never happen
blue blood
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It's why Bruce Weber got out before they penalized KSU for it
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It's why Bruce Weber got out before they penalized KSU for it
Great play on that one.
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I don't think we had an NBA thread this season, but my take on Jordan poole was very off. His offensive game has translated exceedingly well, and he has worked hard enough on the defensive end, to make it passable. Maybe it's the warriors system, because the best pro to come through Izzo and beilein have now played in it
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I don't think I posted this after the tournament becuase the UW loss ticked me off so much (maybe I did), but I did find an amusing thing.
ELA oft referenced the senior class at MSU and its failings. I admit, I was a mite skeptical, as that class produced a perfectly nice All-Conference player, a starting center who could change a game, though did not consistently do so, plus a kid who left early for the league after a good season (there were two guys who transferred away). Not super, but it was there.
Anyway, it got me researching. Found a stat I enjoyed. The number of non-transfer scholarship class of 2018 kids on the rosters of Big Ten champs this year: 0. UW's 2018 class came at a weird time and was all projects who left. Illinois had one NBA guy and a mess of randos who wandered off.
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I had not thought about that. Interesting.
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I had not thought about that. Interesting.
UW sort of accidentally fell into that big senior class last year. They also were basically full on scholarships in 2018, had the bones of a long-term rotation and had the Herro kerfuffle.
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Cockburn to hire an agent and declare. That helps.
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Cockburn to hire an agent and declare. That helps.
Must not have been able to negotiate the NIL deal they were wanting.