2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread

[bayareabadger]

I’d be mad, but when the point guard’s ankle goes 90 degrees and the star is still playing poorly, is what it is.

[bayareabadger]

And a missed push off to boot.

[SuperMario]

I thought we needed another C+ game from Duke.  That was MSUs A+ game.  The best game they've played since the win in Madison in mid January.  But that was also Dukes best game in weeks.  And an above average Duke effort just has too much talent for this MSU team

Completely agree. MSU looked great. I think the talent gap was fairly large and Sparty gave them everything they could handle and it’s not like Duke played poorly.  Much better game than expected. There was certainly a time in the 2nd half that it appeared Izzo might be the one to end Coach k’s career, which would have been fitting.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Wisconsin would win going away if they could buy a damn bucket. 

[ELA]

Completely agree. MSU looked great. I think the talent gap was fairly large and Sparty gave them everything they could handle and it’s not like Duke played poorly.  Much better game than expected. There was certainly a time in the 2nd half that it appeared Izzo might be the one to end Coach k’s career, which would have been fitting.

Instead hell probably be Ks last win, which is unfortunately more fitting

[MaximumSam]

Welp

[betarhoalphadelta]

Wisconsin holds a team to 54 points...

...and loses.

Yeah, that's a Wisconsin thang. 

[SuperMario]

Well, this has been a pretty atrocious day. Hopefully the boilermakers break the trend.

[ELA]

Wisconsin holds a team to 54 points...

...and loses.

Yeah, that's a Wisconsin thang.

Wisconsin should have spread their close losses out throughout the season, rather than consolidating them all in March. Just my opinion.

So even if Purdue wins, we will finish below our projected 2nd weekend teams?  Should have had Purdue, Wisconsin and Illinois.  Wisconsin and Illinois already fell short, but Michigan picked up the slack for one of them

[bayareabadger]

Wisconsin holds a team to 54 points...

...and loses.

Yeah, that's a Wisconsin thang.

Thin team, point by guard lost, against a top-10 defensive team that plays scrambling and aggressive.

Mix that with a boat load of foul trouble. The myth of strong closing did take a kick in the nads.

This team over achieved this year. And for endings, this was about as justifiable as I’d expect.

[medinabuckeye1]

Well, this has been a pretty atrocious day. Hopefully the boilermakers break the trend.

Yeah, disaster day for the B1G.

We really need Purdue to win because they are a lot more likely to keep going than Michigan. 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Purdue off to a wonderful start 

[MaximumSam]

Thin team, point by guard lost, against a top-10 defensive team that plays scrambling and aggressive.

Mix that with a boat load of foul trouble. The myth of strong closing did take a kick in the nads.

This team over achieved this year. And for endings, this was about as justifiable as I’d expect.

Yeah from going to am attempted coup and turning over the roster to where they got, quite the season

[medinabuckeye1]

So the final result is the following seeds:

• #3 Purdue, Wisconsin
• #4 Illinois
• #5 Iowa
• #7 Michigan State, Ohio State
• #11 Michigan, Rutgers (as a play-in)
• #12 Indiana (as a play-in)

Based on past history of those seeds, here is what those nine teams should accomplish (NOTE: I'm treating RU as 1/2 of an 11 seed and Indiana as 1/2 of a 12 seed because they have to win a play-in to get to the 64 team bracket and I'm just treating that as a 50/50 proposition). 

• 5.07 teams in the R32
• 2.56 teams in the S16
• 0.96 team in the E8
• 0.46 teams in the F4
• 0.21 teams in the NC
• 0.08 NC's

Here is the chart and here is then then the explanation:
[img width=273.429 height=371]https://i.imgur.com/3FMLGeb.png[/img]

• #3 seeds win their R64 game 84.72% of the time.  We have two so that should get us 1.69 team in the R32. 
• #4 seeds win their R64 game 78.47% of the time.  We have one so that should get us 0.78 teams in the R32. 
• #5 seeds win their R64 game 64.58% of the time.  We have one so that should get us 0.65 teams in the R32.  Note that cumulatively these four teams should win barely over three opening games (3.12) so statistically it is fairly likely that one of them will lose. 
• #7 seeds win their R64 game 60.42% of the time.  We have two so that should get us 1.21 teams in the R32. 
• #11 seeds win their R64 game 37.50% of the time.  We have 1-1/2 so that should get us 0.56 teams in the R32. 
• #12 seeds win their R64 game 35.42% of the time.  We have 1/2 so that should get us 0.18 teams in the R32. 
• Add that up and you have just over five teams in the R32. 

I've used the same table of past results to also calculate the number of S16, E8, F4, NCG, and NC teams.  Note that the deeper you get into the tournament the more the expected results are dependent upon the two #3 seeds (PU and UW):

• We have 5.07 teams getting to the R32, the two #3 seeds are just 1/3 of that total. 
• We have 2.56 teams making the S16, the two #3 seeds are 41% of that total. 
• We have 0.96 teams making the E8, the two #3 seeds are over half of that total. 
• We have 0.47 teams making the F4, the two #3 seeds are over half of that total. 
• We have 0.21 teams making the NC Game, the two #3 seeds are nearly 3/4 of that total. 
• We have 0.08 NC's, the two #3 seeds are nearly 3/4 of that total.

Just bumping this for context.