2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread

[bayareabadger]

I did not see the game. What happened?

It took Penn State 18 minutes to reach double digits and scoring, and then Wisconsin won on a Wahl shot in the final minute.

I’m still in the middle of watching the second half, after plans pulled me away. That said, Davis had his first three jumpers blocked. He is in some kind of funk.

Oh, UW also blew a 9-point lead in the last four minutes. This team has a bit of a feel of the 2016-17 team that limped through a stretch of playing so-so but surviving before taking a set of losses and then finding their footing. Ideally they dodge the middle part. 

[Brutus Buckeye]

[bayareabadger]

I'm realizing Wisconsin is again gonna catch MSU off a dumb loss. Considering how UW looked this weekend, take the Spartans to cover.

[medinabuckeye1]

The only unexpected result this weekend was Illinois' win in Bloomington so the projections are only slightly changed.  Projected final standings/BTT seeds:

• 15-5/26-5 Purdue
• 15-5/24-7 Michigan State
• 15-5/23-8 Illinois
• 13-5/20-7 Ohio State
• 14-6/23-7 Wisconsin
• 11-9/17-13 Rutgers
• 10-9/20-10 Iowa
• 10-10/19-11 Indiana
• 7-12/12-15 Penn State
• 7-13/13-17 Michigan (wins tie over UMD/NU based on H2H2H, no games in Evanston or College Park)
• 7-13/14-15 Maryland (loses tie to M based on H2H2H, beats UMD based on record against the 15-5 teams)
• 7-13/14-15 Northwestern
• 6-13/15-13 Minnesota
• 0-019/6-24 Nebraska

Tiebreaker for the 15-5 teams:

• H2H2H:  PU is 2-1 (no home game against MSU, sweep of IL).  MSU is 2-1 (no game in W. Lafayette).  IL is 1-3 (split with MSU, sweep by PU)
• PU beats MSU based on record against tOSU, no game in Columbus)

Thus, the match-ups at the B1G Tournament in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:

• #11 Maryland vs #14 Nebraska, 830 BTN
• #12 Northwestern vs #13 Minnesota, 6 BTN

Thursday, March 10, 2022:

• #5 Wisconsin vs NU/MN, 230 BTN
• #6 Rutgers vs UMD/UNL, 9 BTN
• #7 Iowa vs #10 Michigan, 630 BTN
• #8 Indiana vs #9 Penn State, noon BTN

Friday, March 11, 2022:

• #1 Purdue vs IU/PSU, noon BTN
• #2 Michigan State vs IA/M, 630 BTN
• #3 Illinois vs RU/UMD/UNL, 9 BTN
• #4 Ohio State vs UW/NU/MN, 230 BTN

Saturday, March 12, 2022:

• PU/IU/PSU vs tOSU/UW/NU/MN, 1 CBS
• MSU/IA/M vs IL/RU/UMD/UNL, 330 CBS

Sunday, March 13, 2022:

• PU/IU/PSU/tOSU/UW/NU/MN vs MSU/IA/M/IL/RU/UMD/UNL, 330 CBS

[medinabuckeye1]

We have a pretty busy week (Tues-Thurs) with all 14 teams in action and two of them in action twice (PU and M both play on Tuesday then play each other on Thursday):

• UW at MSU Tuesday at 7 on BTN
• IL at PU Tuesday at 9 on ESPN
• M at PSU Tuesday at 9 on ESPN2
• IU at NU Tuesday at 9 on BTN
• tOSU at RU Wednesday at 7 on BTN
• MN at UNL Wednesday at 9 on BTN
• IA at UMD Thursday at 7 on ESPN2/ESPN3
• PU at M Thursday at 9 on ESPN

[847badgerfan]

I'm realizing Wisconsin is again gonna catch MSU off a dumb loss. Considering how UW looked this weekend, take the Spartans to cover.

I think having Wahl will make a difference, but Davison and Davis need to get back to form. Otherwise, this one is a laugher.

[medinabuckeye1]

Looking at the standings there is a pretty clear gap between the top-5 which each have three or less losses and the next group which each have five or more losses.  That can change but it probably will not change unless it starts this week. 

Looking at the top-5:

• 10-2 Illinois visits 9-3 Purdue.  We project a Purdue win. 
• 9-3 Purdue hosts 10-2 Illinois and visits 5-5 Michigan.  We project two PU wins. 
• 9-3 Wisconsin visits 8-3 Michigan State.  We project an MSU win. 
• 8-3 Michigan State hosts 9-3 Wisconsin.  We project an MSU win. 
• 7-3 Ohio State visits 7-5 Rutgers.  We project an RU win. 

Then looking at the five and six loss teams:

• 7-5 Indiana visits 4-8 Northwestern, we project an NU win. 
• 7-5 Rutgers hosts 7-3 Ohio State, we project a RU win. 
• 5-5 Michigan visits 4-7 Penn State and hosts 9-3 Purdue, we project TWO M losses. 
• 5-6 Iowa visits 3-9 Maryland, we project a UMD win. 

If the five and six loss teams go 0-fer this weekend you can pretty much pencil in the top-5 as the top-5 because #6 and below will be too far behind to have much chance of catching up. 

If all goes as projected except that tOSU wins in Piscataway then the standings heading into this weekend will be:

• 11-3 Purdue
• 10-3 Illinois
• 9-3 Michigan State
• 8-3 Ohio State
• 9-4 Wisconsin
• 7-6 Indiana
• 7-6 Rutgers
• 5-7 Michigan
• 5-7 Iowa
• 5-7 Penn State
• 5-8 Northwestern
• 4-9 Maryland
• 3-9 Minnesota
• 0-13 Nebraska

In my view that gap would be far too large for IU/RU/M/IA/PSU to overcome. 

Conversely, if the 5/6 loss teams all win then the standings will be (everything else as projected):

• 10-3 Illinois
• 9-3 Michigan State
• 10-4 Purdue
• 9-4 Wisconsin
• 7-4 Ohio State
• 8-5 Indiana
• 8-5 Rutgers
• 7-5 Michigan
• 6-6 Iowa
• 4-8 Penn State
• 4-9 Northwestern
• 3-9 Minnesota
• 3-10 Maryland
• 0-13 Nebraska

In that case the Hoosiers, Scarlet Knights, Wolverines, and Hawkeyes are still in position to potentially catch at least the last few teams in the top-5. 

[betarhoalphadelta]

With the win on Saturday over Michigan, Purdue becomes the first program in conference to amass 1,000 Big Ten Conference wins. 

[TyphonInc]

With the win on Saturday over Michigan, Purdue becomes the first program in conference to amass 1,000 Big Ten Conference wins.

Go Purdue. More so on beating the Skunkweasels, but also on being pretty awesome for so many decades. 

[medinabuckeye1]

With the win on Saturday over Michigan, Purdue becomes the first program in conference to amass 1,000 Big Ten Conference wins.

Congratulations Purdue.  Do you have a list of conference wins by program?  

I'm curious how it would break down.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

Congratulations Purdue.  Do you have a list of conference wins by program? 

I'm curious how it would break down. 

Not quite... I found overall records, but not by conference wins: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/conferences/big-ten/schools.html

Purdue narrowly edges Illinois and Indiana in win%. Maryland actually beats all in win%, but it only counts their last 8 seasons, not their entire history, so the sample size is limited. 

My guess is that with Indiana coming into the conference one year after Purdue, and Illinois coming in 6 years after Purdue, they'll both hit that 1,000 mark relatively soon. Without the numbers, I can't tell if Indiana would do so this year but I can't imagine it being much more than 1-2 years away, and similar for Illinois as we're now in 20-game conference seasons so they'll catch up faster than they might have back in the early 19-oughts and 19-teens.

[bayareabadger]

I think having Wahl will make a difference, but Davison and Davis need to get back to form. Otherwise, this one is a laugher.

In EL is always, always tough. 

Also, they played like fried butt on Saturday. OOf. 

[TyphonInc]

Congratulations Purdue.  Do you have a list of conference wins by program? 

I'm curious how it would break down. 

The programs wiki page has conference wins by team. I looked up OSU and IU after I read the Purdue milestone.

From Memory:
OSU has 840
IU has 973

EDIT: wiki has Illinois at 973 also.

[grillrat]

Then looking at the five and six loss teams:

• 7-5 Indiana visits 4-8 Northwestern, we project a UMD win. 
• 7-5 Rutgers hosts 7-3 Ohio State, we project a RU win. 
• 5-5 Michigan visits 4-7 Penn State and hosts 9-3 Purdue, we project TWO M losses. 
• 5-6 Iowa visits 3-9 Maryland, we project a UMD win. 

That's impressive!