I think the basketball recruiting rankings, particularly for PGs and bigs are meh now. The bestp layer typically find their way to a prep school, so the ones that don't, don't really get scouted playing HS ball, just AAU, and nothing about that highlights how PG and big play will translate.
Looking at the MSU 2018 class (which would be seniors now)...
The highest rated player was #66 Marcus Bingham Jr. He is finally showing flashes this year, but MSU took him over Treveon Williams, because Williams was fat, and Bingham could shoot 3s, and projected better. Nope
Next was Foster Loyer at #96. He is the all time leading scorer in Michigan HS history, MSU offered him as a sophomore, and he never grew. His dad is 6'7", his brother is 6'7", he was a 6'0" 15 year old...who never grew another inch. He transferred to Davidson
Gabe Brown was #101, and only because of a late boost. When he committed, I think MSU was his only high major offer, and now he's the best player on the team, maybe?
Then you drop down to Aaron Henry at #140. MSU only offered him after missing out on a bunch of higher priority guys, and Gary Harris staked his reputation on him. He almost went pro after 2 years, came back for his junior year, and basically single-handidly dragged MSU into the tourney.
Thomas Kithier was #161, but that was another weird one. When the initial rankings came out, he was the top player in the state. But he missed his whole junior year with an injury, and then transferred his senior year, but was declared ineligible because it was deemed the transfer was for athletic purposes. So he fell, because he didn't play for 2 years, but he's another guy who stopped growing. He transferred to Valparaiso.
So you start with the guys who were the top 2 players in the state at the time they committed (Loyer and Kithier), and wound up not even being Big Ten caliber players. Then you take the guy who winds up the #1 player in the state (Bingham), based solely on projections, and the guy MSU passed on (Williams), absolutely blew past him. The two best players in that class were outside the top 100.
Actually, MSU has taken 4 players outside the top 100 since 2016. And I'd say the hit rate has been pretty damn good. Julian Marble looks like his rating suggested, but then Xavier Tillman, Gabe Brown, Aaron Henry. The weird part is that Brown and Henry played positions that are usually a little more translatable, so they shouldn't have slipped through the cracks.
