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Topic: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread

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MaximumSam

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #938 on: February 13, 2022, 02:58:14 PM »
Bo Boroski making more fans I see

847badgerfan

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #939 on: February 13, 2022, 02:58:38 PM »
I think I figured out Rutgers.

Against much of the non-conference schedule, they played like a team set to battle Nebraska for last.

Against the bottom third of the conference, they played like a solid 11th place team.

Against the top 2/3rds of the league, they play like a Big Ten champ.

See. Figured out.
Cockroaches gonna cockroach.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #940 on: February 14, 2022, 11:31:28 AM »
We are now almost 70% done with the season:

  • 1 team has played 15 league games 75% (PU)
  • 7 teams have played 14 league games 70% (IL, UW, RU, IU, NU, UMD, UNL)
  • 5 teams have played 13 league games 65% (MSU, IA, M, PSU, MN)
  • 1 team has played 12 league games 60% (tOSU)
The updated projected final standings and BTT seeds are:
  • 15-5/22-7 Ohio State
  • 14-6/23-7 Wisconsin (wins tie over PU and IL based on H2H2H of 2-1, no home game against IL, won at PU)
  • 14-6/25-6 Purdue (second in tie with UW and IL based on H2H2H of 2-2, lost at home to UW, won at IL)
  • 14-6/22-9 Illinois (last in tie with UW and PU based on H2H2H of 1-2, no game at UW, lost at home to PU)
  • 13-7/22-9 Michigan State
  • 12-8/18-12 Rutgers
  • 11-9/17-13 Michigan (wins tie with IA based on record against UW/PU/IL)
  • 11-9/21-10 Iowa
  • 10-10/19-11 Indiana
  • 7-13/12-16 Penn State (wins tie with NU based on H2H, won in Evanston)
  • 7-13/14-15 Northwestern
  • 6-14/14-17 Maryland
  • 5-15/14-15 Minnesota
  • 1-19/7-24 Nebraska

Thus, the match-ups at the BTT in Indianapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 9, 2022:
  • #11 Northwestern vs #14 Nebraska, 830 BTN
  • #12 Maryland vs #13 Minnesota, 6 BTN
Thursday, March 10, 2022:
  • #5 Michigan State vs UMD/MN, 230 BTN
  • #6 Rutgers vs NU/UNL, 9 BTN
  • #7 Michigan vs #10 Penn State, 630 BTN
  • #8 Iowa vs #9 Indiana, noon BTN
Friday, March 11, 2022:
  • #1 Ohio State vs IA/IU, noon BTN
  • #2 Wisconsin vs M/PSU, 630 BTN
  • #3 Purdue vs RU/NU/UNL, 9 BTN
  • #4 Illinois vs MSU/UMD/MN, 230 BTN
Saturday, March 12, 2022:
  • tOSU/IA/IU vs IL/MSU/UMD/MN, 1 CBS
  • UW/M/PSU vs PU/RU/NU/UNL, 330 CBS
Sunday, March 13, 2022:
  • tOSU/IA/IU/IL/MSU/UMD/MN vs UW/M/PSU/PU/RU/NU/UNL, 330 CBS

« Last Edit: February 14, 2022, 05:21:44 PM by medinabuckeye1 »

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #941 on: February 14, 2022, 11:47:55 AM »
With the above said, I REALLY don't think that Ohio State will actually finish that well.  As noted in the post above, the Buckeyes have more remaining games than any other B1G team.  The SoS of what the Buckeyes have left is surprisingly light for this league in part because the two postponed games that the Buckeyes need to make up were both home games.  In part because of that the Buckeyes have six home games and only two road games remaining.  Furthermore, one of the road games is a game that Ohio State should probably win at Maryland.  Thus, we project the Buckeyes to go 7-1 over their final eight games.  That would be great but . . .

There are three weeks and three weekends left in the season:

  • Week of Mon, Feb 14 - Fri, Feb 18
  • Weekend of Sat/Sun, Feb 19/20
  • Week of Mon, Feb 21 - Fri, Feb 25
  • Weekend of Sat/Sun, Feb 26/27
  • Week of Mon, Feb 28 - Fri, Mar 4
  • Weekend of Sat/Sun, Mar 5/6


Half the league (IL, UW, RU, IU, NU, UMD, UNL) has six games left and for them it is pretty straight forward, they have one game each week (usually Tue, Wed, or Thur) and one game each weekend (Sat or Sun).  

One team (PU) has only five games left so they are same as above except that they get the week of Feb 21-25 off.  

Five teams (MSU, IA, M, PSU, MN) have seven games left so they each have one of those weeks doubled up.  All are in this situation due to an earlier missed game (MSU@M, IA@tOSU, MvMSU, PSUvMN, MN@PSU).  

That leaves Ohio State.  The Buckeyes need to squeeze eight games into what would normally only be six slots.  They had yesterday off and they have today off then a game on Tuesday then three days off, then the storm:
  • Sat, 2/19 vs IA
  • Mon, 2/21 vs IU
  • Thur, 2/24 @ IL
  • Sun, 2/27 @ UMD
  • Tue, 3/1 vs UNL
  • Thur, 3/3 vs MSU

In 13 days the Buckeyes will play seven games.  The last three of those are all projected wins but frankly, as an Ohio State fan I'll be thrilled if Ohio State goes 2-1 in those.  


ELA

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #942 on: February 14, 2022, 02:26:10 PM »
Pretty darned close to a must win game for MSU at Penn State on Tuesday.  Massey has them as an underdog in their next 5, before finishing against Maryland at home.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #943 on: February 14, 2022, 03:20:40 PM »
Pretty darned close to a must win game for MSU at Penn State on Tuesday.  Massey has them as an underdog in their next 5, before finishing against Maryland at home.
Losing to Penn State obviously wouldn't be idea but, I think that "must win" overstates things a bit.  The Spartans are 9-4/18-6 and ranked.  Even if they lost their next six they'd still be 9-10/18-12 and likely in the tournament.  Beyond that, while I can see them being underdogs in the five after PSU, I can't see them actually losing all five.  Illinois and Purdue are both very good but those games are at home.  Iowa and Michigan are dangerous but certainly beatable and the last of those five is in Columbus on short rest but the Buckeyes will be even less rested than the Spartans.  

bayareabadger

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #944 on: February 14, 2022, 05:59:16 PM »
Losing to Penn State obviously wouldn't be idea but, I think that "must win" overstates things a bit.  The Spartans are 9-4/18-6 and ranked.  Even if they lost their next six they'd still be 9-10/18-12 and likely in the tournament.  Beyond that, while I can see them being underdogs in the five after PSU, I can't see them actually losing all five.  Illinois and Purdue are both very good but those games are at home.  Iowa and Michigan are dangerous but certainly beatable and the last of those five is in Columbus on short rest but the Buckeyes will be even less rested than the Spartans. 
It cuts to a sort of weird part of “must win.” The worst games are often by nature more “must win” because they count more against you.

like if a football team wants to make a bowl, the worst non-conference game is by nature the most must win because it should be harder to win any of the others.

847badgerfan

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #945 on: February 15, 2022, 09:33:30 AM »
Huge road game for UW tonight. It is a must-win if they want to remain in the hunt for the league title.

IU is playing for a ton too.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #946 on: February 15, 2022, 10:27:05 AM »
Pretty darned close to a must win game for MSU at Penn State on Tuesday.  Massey has them as an underdog in their next 5, before finishing against Maryland at home.
Huge road game for UW tonight. It is a must-win if they want to remain in the hunt for the league title.

IU is playing for a ton too.
Grr.  

Now everybody is overusing "must win".  

I have UW losing in Bloomington tonight and finishing one game out of first behind only Ohio State but, as stated above, tOSU has a huge run of games on short rest coming up so they most likely will not actually end up 15-5.  

Illinois has the fewest losses (3) but they have possibly the toughest remaining schedule with games:
  • AT Rutgers
  • AT Michigan State
  • vs Ohio State
  • AT Michigan
They only have three losses now but it wouldn't take any major upsets for them to end up with seven.  

Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State each have four losses but they each have at least two games remaining that it wouldn't be surprising if they lost:
Purdue:
  • AT Michigan State
  • AT Wisconsin
Wisconsin:
  • AT Indiana
  • AT Rutgers
  • vs Purdue
Michigan State:
  • vs Illinois
  • AT Iowa
  • vs Purdue
  • AT Michigan
  • AT Ohio State
Ohio State:
  • vs Indiana on short rest
  • AT Illinois
  • AT Maryland on short rest
  • vs Michigan State on short rest

My point is simply that there is a lot of BB left to be played and I think it is a bit early to start talking about "must-win" games.  

847badgerfan

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #947 on: February 15, 2022, 10:36:32 AM »
Grr. 

Now everybody is overusing "must win". 

I have UW losing in Bloomington tonight and finishing one game out of first behind only Ohio State but, as stated above, tOSU has a huge run of games on short rest coming up so they most likely will not actually end up 15-5. 
Hence, must win.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #948 on: February 15, 2022, 01:51:51 PM »
In Lunardi's latest the B1G still has seven teams in but Michigan and Rutgers are now both on the bubble.  Michigan is the second team out while Rutgers is the fifth team out.  The teams in are:

  • #2 Purdue
  • #3 Illinois
  • #4 Wisconsin
  • #5 Michigan State, Ohio State
  • #7 Iowa
  • #9 Indiana

Based on past history, those seeds on average would result in:
  • 4.97 teams in the R32
  • 2.54 teams in the S16
  • 1.08 teams in the E8
  • 0.53 teams in the F4
  • 0.23 teams in the NC
  • 0.08 National Champions


ELA

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #949 on: February 15, 2022, 04:19:40 PM »
Going to try to post an updated NCAA and NIT Bracketology each week, simply 2/3 SOR, and 1/3 KenPom.  Things should come into focus more as we go on.  Still have some outliers.

For auto-bid purposes, I'm assuming whoever is in first gets the autobid, but that the highest ranked KenPom team wins the tournament
February 15 update

NCAA
EAST
  • #1 Auburn vs. #16 Southern/Colgate
  • #8 IOWA vs. #9 Wake Forest
  • #5 Providence vs. #12 Iona
  • #4 MICHIGAN STATE vs. #13 Dayton
  • #3 Villanova vs. #14 Vermont
  • #6 Alabama vs. #11 Davidson
  • #7 Colorado State vs. #10 INDIANA
  • #2 Duke vs. #15 Princeton

WEST
  • #1 Arizona vs. #16 Gardner Webb/Nicholls State
  • #8 Saint Mary's vs. #9 Loyola(Chi)
  • #5 WISCONSIN vs. #12 Chattanooga
  • #4 Houston vs. #13 New Mexico State
  • #3 UCLA vs. #14 Wagner
  • #6 Wyoming vs. #11 Miami
  • #7 Arkansas vs. #10 Iowa State
  • #2 Gonzaga vs. #15 UC Irvine

MIDWEST
  • #1 Kansas vs. #16 Norfolk State
  • #8 Marquette vs. #9 Notre Dame
  • #5 Texas vs. #12 MICHIGAN/Belmont
  • #4 ILLINOIS vs. #13 South Dakota State
  • #3 Tennessee vs. #14 Oakland
  • #6 USC vs. #11 Boise State
  • #7 Connecticut vs. #10 TCU
  • #2 PURDUE vs. #15 Montana State

SOUTH
  • #1 Baylor vs. #16 South Alabama
  • #8 North Carolina vs. #9 Seton Hall
  • #5 OHIO STATE vs. #12 SMU/Oklahoma
  • #4 LSU vs. #13 Toledo
  • #3 Texas Tech vs. #14 Towson
  • #6 Murray State vs. #11 North Texas
  • #7 Xavier vs. #10 San Francisco
  • #2 Kentucky vs. #15 Liberty


NIT
PROVO
  • #1 BYU vs. #8 UNC Wilmington
  • #4 Saint Louis vs. #5 Stanford
  • #3 San Diego State vs. #6 Vanderbilt
  • #2 VCU vs. #7 South Carolina

MANHATTAN
  • #1 Kansas State vs. #8 Longwood
  • #4 St. Bonaventure vs. #5 Texas A&M
  • #3 Creighton vs. #6 MINNESOTA
  • #2 Virginia Tech vs. #7 Richmond

MEMPHIS
  • #1 Memphis vs. #8 New Orleans
  • #4 UAB vs. #5 NORTHWESTERN
  • #3 Mississippi State vs. #6 Cincinnati
  • #2 Ohio vs. #7 Texas State

MORGANTOWN
  • #1 West Virginia vs. #8 Yale
  • #4 RUTGERS vs. #5 Virginia
  • #3 Oregon vs. #6 Central Florida
  • #2 Florida vs. #7 Long Beach State

Other Big Ten teams
  • Penn State - #7 team out
  • Maryland - #13 team out
  • Nebraska - n/a


ELA

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Re: 2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread
« Reply #950 on: February 15, 2022, 08:44:34 PM »
Losing to Penn State obviously wouldn't be idea but, I think that "must win" overstates things a bit.  The Spartans are 9-4/18-6 and ranked.  Even if they lost their next six they'd still be 9-10/18-12 and likely in the tournament.  Beyond that, while I can see them being underdogs in the five after PSU, I can't see them actually losing all five.  Illinois and Purdue are both very good but those games are at home.  Iowa and Michigan are dangerous but certainly beatable and the last of those five is in Columbus on short rest but the Buckeyes will be even less rested than the Spartans. 
MSU has played one good game in the past 7ish weeks.  They won at Wisconsin.

I have a hard time seeing how you think that wasn't a must win to have any prayer of a Big Ten title.  

ELA

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« Last Edit: February 15, 2022, 08:54:21 PM by ELA »

 

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