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Topic: Blue Skies Ahead for the Crimson and Cream?

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Gigem

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Re: Blue Skies Ahead for the Crimson and Cream?
« Reply #42 on: October 08, 2022, 06:42:11 PM »
I posted this full well knowing that A&M is probably going to take an arse whipping tonight.  

It's just stunning to see how bad OU has been this year after so many years being near the top of CFB.  

CWS do you still hole BV in such high regards?  And do you still think Lincoln was not getting the job done?  

CWSooner

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Re: Blue Skies Ahead for the Crimson and Cream?
« Reply #43 on: October 08, 2022, 09:03:23 PM »
Gigem:

I think Brent Venables is a good man, but I'm wondering if he is going to be one of those guys who is a fantastic coordinator but fails as a head coach. Both of Jimmy Johnson's coordinators at Dallas fit that bill. Dave Wannstedt was the DC, and he failed wherever he went to be the HFC. Norv Turner was the OC, and he also failed. We'll just have to see how the rest of the season plays out.

But, regardless, Lincoln was on a downhill coast at OU. Every season a little worse than the one before, culminating with last year's team that could just as easily gone 8-5 as 11-2. Also, he was dissatisfied with how slowly some staff/facility upgrades he had requested were being met, and he did not want to go to the SEC. Apparently, he did not come clean with the A.D., did not make it clear that he was not happy, but he did start looking for places to jump, and he let his agent circulate his name and interest. Ultimately, he chose USC over LSU.

I read a piece a week ago--after the debacle at TCU--by Pete Thamel, IIRC. He said that OU hasn't taken the necessary steps to do more than just make it to the CFP because OU has been good-or-better for over 20 years now. So there has been no great cry to fix what's wrong. OU has thought it just needed to tweak things a bit and the Sooners could win in the playoffs. All the other current top teams (except for Ohio State, which hasn't been "bad" in 100 years) have gone through some painful, even losing, seasons. Bama under Mike Shula, for example. So, if all that is legitimate analysis, then maybe OU has to experience some real pain (as opposed to the disappointment of 1st-round losses in the CFP) before it can really get to the level of Bama, TOSU, and (currently) Georgia.

There's an old admonition to not let the perfect be the enemy of the good. But maybe OU has let the good-or-better be an excuse for not pursuing the very, very good.

We'll see. There's no guarantee that BV will succeed. My personal belief is that he needs two new coordinators. I have viewed them as potential weak links from the start, and I think that events are proving that worry to be justified.

Your Aggies just played Bama to a scoreless tie after one quarter, so maybe there is no whipping coming tonight.
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Gigem

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Re: Blue Skies Ahead for the Crimson and Cream?
« Reply #44 on: October 08, 2022, 09:29:08 PM »
I think you're opinion of Riley is clouded by him spurning OU.  He did great in Norman, by any measure.  By your measuring stick Bob Stoops was on the way down in 2014 after a 8-4 season.  

http://mcubed.net/ncaaf/charts/ok.shtml



Not sure how USC is looking this year because I rarely watch Pac 12 but they seem to be doing much better after many down years.  

You may be right about needing to be bad to get great.  If that is the case A&M should be all world by now.  

MikeDeTiger

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Re: Blue Skies Ahead for the Crimson and Cream?
« Reply #45 on: October 09, 2022, 12:51:24 AM »
Ultimately, he chose USC over LSU.

Smart choice

CWSooner

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Re: Blue Skies Ahead for the Crimson and Cream?
« Reply #46 on: October 09, 2022, 06:41:17 PM »
I think you're opinion of Riley is clouded by him spurning OU.  He did great in Norman, by any measure.  By your measuring stick Bob Stoops was on the way down in 2014 after a 8-4 season. 

http://mcubed.net/ncaaf/charts/ok.shtml

[img width=500 height=310.966]https://i.imgur.com/wnBraTM.png[/img]

Not sure how USC is looking this year because I rarely watch Pac 12 but they seem to be doing much better after many down years. 

You may be right about needing to be bad to get great.  If that is the case A&M should be all world by now.
Nice chart.

2014 was definitely a bad year for Bob Stoops. It tied with 2009 for his worst record (8-5) after his 7-5 first season. By other measurables, it was worse than the 2009 season. In 2009, we lost Sam Bradford to injuries and didn't have a reliable place-kicker. (How Bob managed to not have a worthwhile kicker on the team, I don't know.) So we lost 13-14 to BYU, 20-21 to Miami, 13-16 to Texas, 3-10 to Nebraska, and (in the one b-a-a-a-a-d loss, 13-41 to Texas Tech. In 2014, we lost 33-37 to TCU, 30-31 to Kansas State, 14-48 to Baylor, 35-38 to oSu (in a game Bob badly mismanaged at the end), and then a bad blowout 6-40 to Clemson in the Russell Athletic Bowl.

I think Bob decided at that point that he was ready to retire soon (and a lot of OU fans were probably ready for him to do so), so he fired Josh Heupel (the hardest thing he had to do as OU's coach, by his own account) and hired Lincoln Riley as OC, and put renewed energy into recruiting. He righted the ship. In 2015-16 he went 11-2, 11-2, then handed the reins to Lincoln, who went 12-2 (2OT CFP loss), 12-2 (11-pt CFP loss), 12-2 (blowout CFP loss), 9-2 (Sugar Bowl win), 10-2. (The Sooners finished at 11-2 in 2021, but Bob coached the Alamo Bowl victory.)

Lincoln is doing well at USC this year. I figured he would. USC has the talent to dominate the Pac-12, especially with QB Caleb Williams following Lincoln to Los Angeles. Unless he's learned from his experience at OU, he won't have a good defense and he won't have a culture of accountability in his program, and his first year may be his best, as was the case at OU.

I imagine that OU would have done better on offense yesterday with Caleb Williams at QB. Not even close to "Sooners win!" better, but better than what they did with Davis Beville as QB.

Your Aggies lost a tough one to Bama yesterday. Seems that Jimbo gets the team up more for Bama than for any other opponent.

EDIT: I should add that Riley's defenses at USC probably will work better than his defenses did against Big 12 and SEC/CFP opponents. His DC is Alex Grinch, and he had good defenses at Washington State, obviously playing against mostly Pac-12 opposition.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2022, 09:03:09 PM by CWSooner »
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utee94

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Re: Blue Skies Ahead for the Crimson and Cream?
« Reply #47 on: October 10, 2022, 02:09:45 PM »
Right now I'd have to rate Muleshoe as better than Salina, but things can change.


Gigem

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Re: Blue Skies Ahead for the Crimson and Cream?
« Reply #48 on: November 27, 2022, 11:51:20 AM »
OU finishes 6-6, Riley is 11-1 with a possible Heisman winner and CFP berth. 

Venebals won’t last long in Norman at this pace. May just be 1st year hiccups. 

CWSooner

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Re: Blue Skies Ahead for the Crimson and Cream?
« Reply #49 on: November 27, 2022, 10:33:30 PM »
I suspect a repeat of this year would have a large chunk of the fan-base howling for Brent Venables' head.

Brent inherited a program in some turmoil due to Muleshoe's sudden departure, 3 key players following to USC, including Caleb Williams, and some other key recruits who decommitted and likewise went to USC or to other destinations. But there was some good talent left, and a serviceable QB--Dillon Gabriel--transferred in via the portal. And it's hard to see much improvement in the team from the UTEP opener to the TTU finale. From the first loss to the last one, this was a team that found ways to lose when victory was possible or even probable.

By contrast, Bob Stoops--who had never been a head coach, inherited an outright broken program in which the outgoing coach (John Blake of "I thank Jesus Christ for this victory over Texas" fame) had told the black players that he was being fired for his color and had destroyed the recruiting files so that the new regime had to start from scratch. Bob went 7-4 in the regular season before losing to Ole Miss on a last-second FG in the Independence Bowl. And he played a tougher schedule than what Brent faced this year, I think.

Despite being over a decade younger when he took over the OU program than Brent was, Bob was more ready to be a head coach, IMO. I hope that Brent has learned a lot of lessons over the course of this season and can successfully apply them. Another 6-6 showing won't cut it. I don't think he would get fired after 2 seasons, but he probably would have to make major changes to his staff. My nominee for first to see the door would be OC Jeff Lebby. His hurry-up offense (the only thing he seems to know how to run) does not complement a defense trying to learn different, and much more complex, defensive schemes. And he does not seem to have a play in the book to get 2 yards when you absolutely have to have 2 yards.
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Gigem

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Re: Blue Skies Ahead for the Crimson and Cream?
« Reply #50 on: November 27, 2022, 11:08:54 PM »
Bob Stoops was a helluva coach, no doubt one of the best ever. Amazing that despite all his success and the talent he had at OU he only managed to win one MNC, in the second season. He definitely owned the Big 12. 

I still believe that the original Big 12 was a helluva conference, equal or better than any other conference from 1996 to about 2009. It had 3 blue chip programs, two or three top 20 programs, and some really good football played over the years. 

CWSooner

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Re: Blue Skies Ahead for the Crimson and Cream?
« Reply #51 on: November 28, 2022, 11:29:57 AM »
Bob Stoops was a helluva coach, no doubt one of the best ever. Amazing that despite all his success and the talent he had at OU he only managed to win one MNC, in the second season. He definitely owned the Big 12.

I still believe that the original Big 12 was a helluva conference, equal or better than any other conference from 1996 to about 2009. It had 3 blue chip programs, two or three top 20 programs, and some really good football played over the years.
Yes, Stoops was a great coach. The big flaw in his record is the 1-3 record in NCGs.
It should have been 2-2 or 3-1.
I can't explain the Sooners' collapse against USC in the 2004 (season) NCG, but I do believe that that Sooner teams was not going to beat that Trojan team on that day no matter how the ball bounced.
But opportunities were blown vs. LSU (2003) and Florida (2008). Both of those games could have been wins. At least one of them should have been.
I agree with your assessment of the original Big 12. In hindsight, it seems like there was unhappiness and instability from the start, but the on-field product was as good as it got in CFB for that period. National championships won by Nebraska, OU, and Texas, and NC-caliber teams from A&M and K-State. Also some really good teams from Colorado, Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech. Even Kansas won an Orange Bowl game.
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MikeDeTiger

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Re: Blue Skies Ahead for the Crimson and Cream?
« Reply #52 on: November 28, 2022, 12:04:37 PM »
OU's 2008 NC game vs. Florida was bizarro-world.  Both teams showed up kind of the opposite of their regular season m.o.  Their opponent's had something to do with that, of course, but it was still strange to watch. 

What do OU fans consider winnable about those games?  Or to put it another way, what opportunities were missed that would've lead to different outcomes?  

FearlessF

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Re: Blue Skies Ahead for the Crimson and Cream?
« Reply #53 on: November 28, 2022, 12:38:24 PM »
hah, just dredgin up painful memories
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Gigem

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Re: Blue Skies Ahead for the Crimson and Cream?
« Reply #54 on: November 28, 2022, 01:25:25 PM »
Yes, Stoops was a great coach. The big flaw in his record is the 1-3 record in NCGs.
It should have been 2-2 or 3-1.
I can't explain the Sooners' collapse against USC in the 2004 (season) NCG, but I do believe that that Sooner teams was not going to beat that Trojan team on that day no matter how the ball bounced.
But opportunities were blown vs. LSU (2003) and Florida (2008). Both of those games could have been wins. At least one of them should have been.
I agree with your assessment of the original Big 12. In hindsight, it seems like there was unhappiness and instability from the start, but the on-field product was as good as it got in CFB for that period. National championships won by Nebraska, OU, and Texas, and NC-caliber teams from A&M and K-State. Also some really good teams from Colorado, Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech. Even Kansas won an Orange Bowl game.
Auburn's 2004 team is the prime reason why I'm all in favor of expanding the playoff in general.  4 teams are OK, 8 would be best.  But to win everything you can, on an SEC schedule, and get left out of the MNC is bull shit.  That would have never happened if it had been Alabama, ND, or OU.  Heck, they even gave USC the split title in '03 with LSU.  Such a stupid system.  

MikeDeTiger

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Re: Blue Skies Ahead for the Crimson and Cream?
« Reply #55 on: November 28, 2022, 01:39:07 PM »
While I have some sympathy for Auburn (by which I mean, I have zero sympathy for them, ever) in 2004, it's worth pointing out that in their entire division, only LSU had a winning record.  The SECwest was hot garbage in 2004 and AU did not have an amazing schedule.  

I'm confident if Auburn had gotten to play USC, they have gotten shellacked similar to OU.  They did have a few schematic things in their favor that could've made for a better game....maybe.  Those old Pete Carroll defenses were susceptible to more pro-style attacks, offenses that utilized the backs and tight ends more, which Campbell did during his final year.  Still, SC that night unveiled what would become their 2005 offense, and their defense was one of the best of the Carroll era.  I get AU not getting a chance to "prove it" but I think the BCS got that one right.  Just as I think it got it right in 2003.  2003 SC was not 2004 SC, and would've lost to either OU or LSU.  

 

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