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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2310 on: May 08, 2020, 01:48:26 PM »
I know some aspects of climate change have been suggested to cause certain weather related effects, but I'm not sure I think the predictions are very good yet.  Folks said we'd have more hurricanes and we haven't, more intensity, and we haven't, more tornadoes ... and we haven't, and the whole Europe freezing thing because of the collapse of the Conveyor ...

It's pretty facile I think to blame every extreme weather event on Climate Change.  It's much tougher to predict and be correct.  And when the predictions are wrong, it detracts from the credibility of the science.

Around here a few years ago we had a long lasting drought and that was blamed on CC, but the past few years have been wet and the various lake pools are replenished.  I recall seeing Lake Lanier circa 2008 or so and it looked like it would never get full again.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2311 on: May 08, 2020, 02:13:29 PM »
https://www.ajc.com/news/georgia-other-states-brace-for-polar-vortex-during-the-height-spring/R0xQbexkziVU4xvY1rCOIL/?fbclid=IwAR0ilIDuii1I0CtmAXf96kqb2EOVyXN-v9dmDLImLx7EE68p1t_MHMTanWE

Temperatures are expected to drop 20 degrees or more below average in many areas, including North Georgia, where frost could settle under a lingering mass of cold air. 

WSB meteorologist Brian Monahan forecasts scattered showers from Friday afternoon to Friday evening for metro Atlanta as the cold front begins to move in. Temperatures are expected to reach 68 with a low of 50 degrees Friday. After that, the weather will turn dry. On Saturday, the low drops to 42 with a high of 64 degrees under mostly sunny skies. The forecast low will remain around 42 on Sunday, while the high is expected to rise to around 70 degrees. 


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847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2312 on: May 08, 2020, 02:14:04 PM »
There are no good predictions. The only stuff that's any good is historical data, and that didn't even get really good until the 1950's.

Temperature and rain gauge placement, etc. We do a pretty good job with this now, but it could be better.

For my rainfall models, I only use about the last 40 years of data. Most agencies use data back to about 1880, but I don't trust it.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2313 on: May 08, 2020, 02:15:04 PM »
In PG, it's 86 today. 90 tomorrow.
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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2314 on: May 08, 2020, 02:44:17 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 08, 2020, 01:48:26 PM
I know some aspects of climate change have been suggested to cause certain weather related effects, but I'm not sure I think the predictions are very good yet.  Folks said we'd have more hurricanes and we haven't, more intensity, and we haven't, more tornadoes ... and we haven't, and the whole Europe freezing thing because of the collapse of the Conveyor ...

It's pretty facile I think to blame every extreme weather event on Climate Change.  It's much tougher to predict and be correct.  And when the predictions are wrong, it detracts from the credibility of the science.

Around here a few years ago we had a long lasting drought and that was blamed on CC, but the past few years have been wet and the various lake pools are replenished.  I recall seeing Lake Lanier circa 2008 or so and it looked like it would never get full again.
There were some that said we would have more hurricanes, but that wasn't the scientific consensus.  The scientific consensus was that hurricanes would be become stronger and more powerful.  That has certainly happened.

This also isn't a single weather event.  The Jet Stream has been weakening for years and this type of weather is well-studied and predictable.  
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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2315 on: May 08, 2020, 02:54:22 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 08, 2020, 02:14:04 PM
There are no good predictions. The only stuff that's any good is historical data, and that didn't even get really good until the 1950's.

Temperature and rain gauge placement, etc. We do a pretty good job with this now, but it could be better.

For my rainfall models, I only use about the last 40 years of data. Most agencies use data back to about 1880, but I don't trust it.
People really use rainfall data back from 1880?  That..seems...

Seems like a difficult thing to predict, given the rapid changes we have had over the last 140 years.  Climate change is really starting to ramp up now, deforestation was a huge problem until the 1960s, global dimming didn't start to reverse itself until 1990, etc. etc. etc.

That doesn't even take into account of the accuracy of measurements and record keeping from the 1800's.
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Riffraft

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2316 on: May 08, 2020, 03:55:41 PM »
Well, it is currently 99 here and I am about ready to leave work, grab an adult beverage and go sit in my pool and enjoy the heat. 
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2317 on: May 08, 2020, 04:06:05 PM »


There is no evidence hurricanes net are becoming stronger, as yet.  There is some periodicity in that chart, not no upward trends.  That is the ACE measurement.  There is some indication they may be moving slower, that is rather preliminary.

This is for the North Atlantic only:



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CWSooner

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2318 on: May 08, 2020, 04:10:15 PM »
What's an "adjusted" hurricane?
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FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2319 on: May 08, 2020, 04:11:46 PM »
detonating a nuclear device in the eye of a hurricane will adjust it
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2320 on: May 08, 2020, 04:33:51 PM »
Quote from: CWSooner on May 08, 2020, 04:10:15 PM
What's an "adjusted" hurricane?
Adjusted for how they were counted "back in the day".  We would not have known about some hurricanes for example that never made landfall and stayed way out of the shipping lanes.
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MrNubbz

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2321 on: May 08, 2020, 04:40:23 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on May 08, 2020, 04:11:46 PM
detonating a nuclear device in the eye of a hurricane will adjust it
Sounds reasonable,sheesh - Husker Prick Squad
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MarqHusker

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2322 on: May 08, 2020, 04:41:32 PM »
I still contend we have better baseball records than we do weather records.
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ELA

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #2323 on: May 08, 2020, 04:43:34 PM »
Quote from: CWSooner on May 08, 2020, 04:10:15 PM
What's an "adjusted" hurricane?
Ray Lewis after a lobotomy?
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