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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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Anonymous Coward

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1792 on: August 22, 2019, 02:35:48 PM »
There are many good points here. For what it's worth, my mind is more open about H2V's pending that evolutionary leap in fuel production. As for the ore bottlenecks, there are precious few answers to that, and that naturally leads to outlandish follow-ups: How far are we from mining ore for Earth elsewhere in the solar system, at the asteroid belt, e.g.? A century - more?

MichiFan87

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1793 on: August 22, 2019, 02:49:17 PM »
There's a lot of R&D being done for other energy storage technologies and chemistries. If Lithium becomes more expensive, those technologies will inevitably become commercially viable, and some are already expected to in the next few years. In fact, for large-scale longer-duration energy storage systems, there's a promising company called Energy Vault that has an unusual but fairly simple and practical system of stacking and unstacking cement bricks. It's basically the same concept as a pumped hydro system but with bricks instead of water.
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1794 on: August 22, 2019, 03:42:25 PM »
There's a lot of R&D being done for other energy storage technologies and chemistries. If Lithium becomes more expensive, those technologies will inevitably become commercially viable, and some are already expected to in the next few years. In fact, for large-scale longer-duration energy storage systems, there's a promising company called Energy Vault that has an unusual but fairly simple and practical system of stacking and unstacking cement bricks. It's basically the same concept as a pumped hydro system but with bricks instead of water.
I get that, but I'm also a skeptic. As mentioned, I'm in data storage. NAND flash is *not* a perfect storage media. Pretty much ever since I've been in storage [over a decade], I've been hearing about all the technologies that are "just around the corner" that will displace NAND... Memristors, spin torque memory, phase change memory, etc... All of these have properties that would not only make them better than NAND, but cheaper... Or so their proponents state. Yet none of them are out of the laboratory.

The problem is that commercial viability is a hard thing.

I'd state that at the current state of the tech, lithium batteries are marginally commercially viable for automotive applications. If you want enough in a car to have decent range and performance (Tesla), it's incredibly heavy and expensive. If you skimp on the batteries to reduce cost, you end up with a poor-performing econobox with limited range and still costs $30K (Leaf). Right now the future of electric cars relies on storage chemistry reducing costs to become competitive with ICEV. Because right now, a large part of the value proposition for BEV relative to ICEV includes subsidies, tax credits, etc to artificially reduce the costs. 

So if lithium batteries get MORE expensive, well then those other storage technologies may become commercially viable relative to lithium BEVs, but will still remain a small niche market relative to ICEVs, which is the dominant incumbent for transport.

Which isn't to say that I don't think there's anything better than Lithium out there. But they all need to continue innovation and cost reduction if any of them are going to overtake ICEV. I think it's going to happen, especially as oil becomes harder [and more expensive] to extract, but I've seen too many people wave their hands and say "well the alternatives will become commercially viable because of R&D spending" when it's usually a LOT harder than it looks. 

MichiFan87

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1795 on: August 28, 2019, 01:37:31 AM »
Glad to see this is happening. It's too late for Inslee, but it will be interesting hear the candidates' plans: https://www.axios.com/cnn-climate-change-town-hall-2020-presidential-0c74d5b1-3491-4298-840a-7dc4389c7078.html
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
― Bo Schembechler

DevilFroggy

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1796 on: August 28, 2019, 09:29:16 AM »
Got to experience one of the most intense thunderstorms I've ever seen on Monday night, from the safety of a Holiday Inn in Oklahoma City. 
I thought I settled my debts that night on the ride home
But I have still got hell to pay

FearlessF

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"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

MichiFan87

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1798 on: August 29, 2019, 03:07:13 PM »
Flight-shaming is a thing in Europe. It will definitely be much more difficult to decarbonize air travel (though short-distance trips like between the Hawaiian islands will likely be electrified) unless/until hydrogen is proven to be safe and economic and/or some other denser energy-storage mechanism is commercialized. Of course, for intracontinental travel, hopefully the Hyperloop or something similar will be feasible at some point.
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
― Bo Schembechler

utee94

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1799 on: August 29, 2019, 03:32:04 PM »
Flight-shaming is a thing in Europe. It will definitely be much more difficult to decarbonize air travel (though short-distance trips like between the Hawaiian islands will likely be electrified) unless/until hydrogen is proven to be safe and economic and/or some other denser energy-storage mechanism is commercialized. Of course, for intracontinental travel, hopefully the Hyperloop or something similar will be feasible at some point.
What percentage of global emissions are from air flight?  And then what percentage are from  terrestrial vehicles?  Just wondering what impact it has to the overall effects.



MichiFan87

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1800 on: August 29, 2019, 05:36:21 PM »
What percentage of global emissions are from air flight?  And then what percentage are from  terrestrial vehicles?  Just wondering what impact it has to the overall effects.



Estimates vary, but on a per passenger per mile basis, flights are substantially more emissions-intensive, but certainly there are much greater emissions from cars because there are so many of them, they definitely have greater total emissions, which is why it makes much more sense to focus on making EVs cost-effective while deploying a lot of renewables to get off coal and diminish the oil & gas industry (on that note, Newsy, which is a non-partisan TV news site, recently did a very good documentary called "Blowout" on the rise of oil & gas, particularly in Texas and how the US is exporting much of that fuel to Asia).
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
― Bo Schembechler

Anonymous Coward

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1801 on: August 29, 2019, 05:40:38 PM »
What percentage of global emissions are from air flight?  And then what percentage are from  terrestrial vehicles?  Just wondering what impact it has to the overall effects.



Feel free to find a reference you believe is more reliable, but (interested in finding something fast that passed the first sniff test) I came up with this. It references the US:

https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2015/09/evolving-climate-math-of-flying-vs-driving/



Flight stuff is medium sized in raw numbers. I suspect the "per user" rate is #1, however.

utee94

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1802 on: August 30, 2019, 09:40:06 AM »
Thanks.

Yes, I understand per-passenger/per-mile will be much higher for air travel, seems pretty self-explanatory.  But passengers are also paying a substantial premium for that air travel, and the excise taxes charged by the government could be (not sure if they are but they could be) applied toward environmental issues if so desired.

As you surmised, my point is that focusing on terrestrial emissions will be a much bigger bang for the buck, if limiting emissions is the true goal.


« Last Edit: August 30, 2019, 09:51:24 AM by utee94 »

utee94

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1803 on: August 30, 2019, 09:50:59 AM »
Estimates vary, but on a per passenger per mile basis, flights are substantially more emissions-intensive, but certainly there are much greater emissions from cars because there are so many of them, they definitely have greater total emissions, which is why it makes much more sense to focus on making EVs cost-effective while deploying a lot of renewables to get off coal and diminish the oil & gas industry (on that note, Newsy, which is a non-partisan TV news site, recently did a very good documentary called "Blowout" on the rise of oil & gas, particularly in Texas and how the US is exporting much of that fuel to Asia).

Thanks!  I'll check it out.

I have several friends in oil and gas, they struggled to find work in the 90s after the huge USA oil bust of the late 80s.  That "bust" was local/regional in effect of course, as lower fuel prices were better overall for the general public and national economy.  But when oil prices became so low, it was no longer cost effective to pump here in Texico, and many of my friends ended up moving overseas to Saudi and other places.

The recent increase in oil prices (going back several years) has been great for those folks, most of them are back in Texas and offers and salaries are through the roof.  As you say, some of the production is for domestic use but much of it is being exported to APAC.  

I have one friend whose family owns oil wells in South Texas.  He and his family were living large in the 80s but when the bust hit, they shut down all production.  He ultimately became a Methodist minister-- in fact he's the pastor who performed my wedding-- and he's always been easy-come easy-go when it comes to money. He's always lived modestly and doesn't need material things to make him happy. However, with the recent boom, his family wells are pumping again, and he's now a mega-millionaire.  These days I almost never catch him in Austin, he's spent most of the past 5 years touring Europe and Asia with his college-graduate daughters who are also models (one went to Ole Miss and the other went to Auburn).  Life's been good to him so far... :)

FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1804 on: August 30, 2019, 09:53:10 AM »
shame on all you folks traveling the world

looking at you Cincy

;)
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1805 on: August 30, 2019, 09:55:52 AM »
I was in Colorado this week and we were taking about how much the area is booming. One of the locals said they're constantly seeing Texas license plates because of a huge influx of oil & gas folks. 

 

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