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Topic: Weather, Climate, Environment, and Energy

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CousinFreddie

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #140 on: January 09, 2018, 11:20:18 PM »
It's not a big stretch to think that changing atmospheric temps (as well as corresponding declines in ice mass in the arctic ocean and shifts in density-driven ocean currents) might affect the overall dynamics of the Rossby waves in the atmosphere (e.g. wave number, precession rate, amplitude) and in particular the relative locations (taken in aggregate over, say, weekly to seasonal timescales) of the polar jet stream.  There are a number of articles on this in the scientific literature in recent years, such as:

https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3136

(in particular look at the reference list in that article and you see the scientific community is really actively publishing findings in this area)

It's summarized in plainer English here:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/dreaded-polar-vortex-may-be-shifting/

Here's another recent one:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0259.1

A quick read of these suggests to me that, while there's nothing conclusive yet on this, there are some interesting observations here and potential for better understanding of these mechanisms with further research. 


 

Temp430

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #141 on: January 10, 2018, 07:51:55 AM »
If you fill a soda bottle with carbon dioxide, cap it and set it in a dark closet how much will it's temperature rise?
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #142 on: January 10, 2018, 08:14:42 AM »
Well it rained here in Phoenix last night...I guess it's not in the desert anymore.  AmIright???

eyeroll
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Geolion91

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #143 on: January 10, 2018, 09:10:14 AM »
I just got the Carhartt coat I ordered, to wear when I go to construction sites.  Now we're going to have a high of 60 today.

847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #144 on: January 10, 2018, 10:28:06 AM »
Climate change is real, and has been since the earth's formation. 

Short-term/daily/weekly drastic swings are real too, and have been happening since the earth's formation.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #145 on: January 10, 2018, 10:32:05 AM »
I just got the Carhartt coat I ordered, to wear when I go to construction sites.  Now we're going to have a high of 60 today.
Right, and tomorrow it's forecast to be 54 here and then plummets. And on Saturday the forecast low is 5.

Don't get rid of the Carhartt just yet.
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Geolion91

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #146 on: January 10, 2018, 10:36:06 AM »
No way, it's really warm, just too warm to wear it for a couple days.

MarqHusker

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #147 on: January 10, 2018, 10:52:01 AM »
The Milwaukee Tool  heated jacket is the best for outdoor workers.    Must have for framers, electricians, plumbers, roofers, layers.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #148 on: January 10, 2018, 12:22:40 PM »
This is admittedly quite debatable, but here's a good article about it: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/03/climate/cold-climate-change.html
Thanks. 
I just wanted to point out your statement: "climate scientists strongly believe that the Midwest / Northeast polar vortex (or bomb cyclone or whatever you want to call it this year) are climate change related"
Whereas the story was a bit more circumspect. The quotes from scientists were, as scientists tend to be, very carefully worded. I.e. 'we think there's something there, but we're not sure exactly what or how due to how complex the system is and thus it's an area of active research.' Scientists, like engineers, don't often like to make a forceful statement of conclusion until they really truly KNOW the whys and hows of the mechanism. Which is why it raised my initial question: when laymen translate that to an aggregate statement that "climate scientists strongly believe X" it makes me think that people are extrapolating WAY beyond what those scientists have actually claimed.
So I agree, I can easily see a plausible link between a warming arctic (due to emissions) and a change to the jet stream. And I'm not sure that you can nearly make a statement as specific as emissions in the Northeast/Midwest are responsible for the change in the jet stream to that part of the US. That might suggest that if those regions cut their emissions drastically, the problem will be solved. I think most climate scientists would consider the warming arctic to be a global phenomenon based upon rising CO2 concentrations over years/decades, which will tend to even out regardless of which continent actually emitted the CO2. But I agree with the basic theory of greenhouse gases causing temperature increases, and it would make sense that a warming arctic [which has been shown to be occurring via measurement] could shift things like the jet stream in ways we didn't fully predict.
Still, thanks. It was an interesting article and I appreciate the link.

NorthernOhioBuckeye

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #149 on: January 10, 2018, 02:29:42 PM »
Climate change is real, and has been since the earth's formation.

Short-term/daily/weekly drastic swings are real too, and have been happening since the earth's formation.
Exactly! The Earths climate has been in a constant state of change since the Earth's formation. To say that it is now primarily due to man's existence, is to discount the previous eon's in which man had not effect yet the climate still changed. According to scientists, 100,000 years ago the spot which I am currently sitting, was covered by a mile thick sheet of ice. That would indicate a climate cold enough to support it. However, this past year, I remember green grass and trees with leaves with temperatures in the 80's and 90's. This is considerably different than the climate that must have been present 100,000 years ago. What caused that? Cave men driving SUV's?

MrNubbz

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #150 on: January 10, 2018, 03:52:42 PM »
 According to scientists, 100,000 years ago the spot which I am currently sitting, was covered by a mile thick sheet of ice. That would indicate a climate cold enough to support it. However, this past year, I remember green grass and trees with leaves with temperatures in the 80's and 90's. This is considerably different than the climate that must have been present 100,000 years ago. What caused that? Cave men driving SUV's?
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #151 on: January 10, 2018, 05:13:40 PM »
Climate change is real, and has been since the earth's formation.

Short-term/daily/weekly drastic swings are real too, and have been happening since the earth's formation.
Exactly! The Earths climate has been in a constant state of change since the Earth's formation. To say that it is now primarily due to man's existence, is to discount the previous eon's in which man had not effect yet the climate still changed. According to scientists, 100,000 years ago the spot which I am currently sitting, was covered by a mile thick sheet of ice. That would indicate a climate cold enough to support it. However, this past year, I remember green grass and trees with leaves with temperatures in the 80's and 90's. This is considerably different than the climate that must have been present 100,000 years ago. What caused that? Cave men driving SUV's?
Yes, climate has been changing for all of Earth's history on its own. We get that.

That *DOES NOT* mean that anthropogenic climate change isn't real, or isn't damaging. And one can't claim that human effect is insignificant. We can do things to this planet that far outweigh the impact of any other animal due to our technology. After all, if Trump and Rocket Man decided to start lobbing nukes at each other and started a nuclear winter, would you say man has no effect? 

Climate is an extraordinarily complex system, but two aspects of climate change theory seem to be relatively well-established:

  • Carbon Dioxide is a greenhouse gas and greenhouse gases will trap heat in the atmosphere, causing some warming to the planet.
  • Some, but not likely all, of the warming that is evident since we have had the technology to measure this, is due to human industry. 

The earth has been in a warming cycle since the end of the little ice age, around 1850. CO2 concentrations didn't really start to take off until after 1950 or so. But coincident with that rapid increase in CO2 concentration, the warming trend seemed to accelerate. As a result, even most people who would be labeled "skeptics" as it relates to the climate change debate concede the above two points.

Just as when the other side denounces you for "denying science", to belittle the climate change alarmists with the caveat that it's cold outside today, or with the statement that climate has been changing for all of Earth's history, doesn't help. The question is whether humans are changing it NOW, and what will be the impact on modern life from that change?

And the answer is yes, humans are changing it now. We don't exactly know how much, as all we really have to rely on is computer models of climate [so far most alarmist models have generally over-predicted warming]. We also don't have very good ways to model the economic or lifestyle impacts at this time [the alarmists assume they must be terribly bad, but we don't know--many effects could possibly even be beneficial]. 

But ridiculing the other side doesn't advance the debate.

847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #152 on: January 10, 2018, 05:45:51 PM »
We haven't had reliable measuring devices long enough in my opinion.

The eruption of one volcano could do more damage than humans have ever done.

That said, I do believe in emissions reduction. But I'm not gonna stop breathing.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #153 on: January 10, 2018, 11:19:41 PM »
The sheer volume of people out there who act like the plural of anecdote is data hurts my brain.  FFS.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

 

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