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Topic: Weather, Climate, and Environment

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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #168 on: January 13, 2018, 05:12:59 PM »

But I remember a couple of things from that experience that seem to have significance today.  One was that the atmosphere does not act like a greenhouse.  So "greenhouse gasses" is really a misnomer.  Of course, it's just a label, and we use misleading labels all the time.  I don't see any harm to it in this case.  But the second was that CO2 is maybe the least "greenhouse gas-ish" of all the "greenhouse gasses."  It just doesn't trap heat very well.


I think the greenhouse analogy is pretty apt.  CO2 absorbs in the infrared band quite prominently.  This is easily measured and well known.  It is invisible in the visible band (duh).  So, light from the sun comes in and generates heat when it is absorbed by something.  That heat normally radiates back out into space and infrared radiation (IR).  If you "trap" the heat with glass, or CO2, or methane, or something, it doesn't radiate outward as much, and thus is trapped in a greenhouse type affair.

None of this is in dispute.  Without the 280 ppm CO2 we had in the atmosphere, the climate would be quite a bit cooler than it is.  Increasing that to 400 ppm has a pretty easily measured impact on heat retained, and this is less than a tenth of a degree Celsius (°C).  The larger impact is a result of what are called forcing factors, things that happen as a result of slight changes that spiral out of control and amplify the impact.  One simple example is a change in albedo as ice melts.  The planet becomes less reflective and thus warmer.  Another is if permafrost melts and releases a high level of methane trapped there now.

CO2 is not the most effective of the greenhouse gases, but it is by far the most prominent in concentration.  The levels of gases like methane and NOx in the atmosphere are much much lower, Beer's Law and all that come into play.

The models attempt to estimate the impact of those "forcing factors" to make a projection, and this is done by back fitting them to known data in the last.  One problem is that global mean temperature is very difficult to measure.

And all this complexity and more really gets absorbed into the political landscape.  There are very few liberals who don't believe this is an issue and vice versa.  People BELIEVE the way they believe because of their politics, not their scientific acumen.  

My personal best assessment is that it is a serious problem but probably not as serious as it has been hyped by folks like Gore, who I think have done a disservice to the discussion, AND, importantly, there is VERY little we can do practicably to affect this issue.  I don't see a viable real solution, or even significant mitigation possibility.  You can run around yelling wind and solar but that doesn't make it happen, and it won't happen beyond an inconsequential amount.  The best hope might be controlled fusion power, but heaven knows when that may arrive, if ever.



CousinFreddie

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #169 on: January 13, 2018, 05:43:07 PM »
That is all valid CDub. The "studies" that are currently underway and those that have been published over the past 10 years or so are influenced by those who fund them.

It would be really nice if people would set things aside and do some of their own research.
What in the world are you talking about?  As a practicing member of the scientific community, who has received my share of grant funding and published several dozen peer-reviewed articles, I've never once had that funding or publishing those papers contingent on adhering to anyone's "agenda".
Scientists are the real skeptics.  We actually do the investigations and push back against whatever the latest conventional thinking is, rather than just talk about it (like some so-called climate skeptics who like to be in the news but do scant little actual research).  We do not personally profit from this research.  Funding is extremely hard to get and is getting ever more difficult.  And we are catlike contrarian creatures who pick at and claw away at each other's findings, probing for weaknesses and looking for stronger patterns and explanations than currently exist.  That's how we're trained to think and act, and we embrace the hunt.  Question authority.  Question conventional thinking.  Question everything.
Politicians and mediots do have agendas and they take our findings and mangle them to prove their own points, etc.  They do this because the lazy public want binary yes/no black/white type outcomes, because they can't deal with uncertainty or probabilistic prognostications (unless they're buying life insurance) and they don't understand that science is a process of discovery, not an encyclopedia of information. 
There's not much we can do about this, because scientific literacy in this country is so piss poor.  And frankly I don't blame anyone but the ignorant themselves for being ignorant.  It's an outcome of a lazy, instant gratification, please tell me the answer so I don't have to think society.

MrNubbz

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #170 on: January 13, 2018, 07:21:27 PM »
just returned from Texas

it's much warmer there

and it's about 5-10 degrees warmer in Austin than Dallas - better for playing golf in shorts

let's ALL move there
Dilly-dilly,maybe not looking forward to ice fishing
“Did I hear God call me an idiot? ”― William P. Young

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #171 on: January 13, 2018, 08:23:32 PM »
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #172 on: January 14, 2018, 08:02:50 AM »
I have a passion for automobiles, and I think the autonomous vehicle thing is a major shift in the horizon in how we transport ourselves.  Horizon probably means late 2020's, obviously in a gradual sense.  I can see a time about then when certain freeway lanes will be reserved for self driving vehicles.  Many of us many opt not to own a car, but use an Uber like service entirely, or most of the time.  You schedule a car to pick you up and take you to work each morning, no parking hassles etc.

Cars on intercity routes might travel in long strings drafting the car ahead of them with a 1 foot separation traveling at perhaps 120 mph.  Each car would see what every other car sees.  This could be a significant option versus intercity high speed rail, and much cheaper.   

The EV thing is going to come fast also, though if the CAFE standards are relaxed, that will slow.

847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #173 on: January 14, 2018, 08:13:37 AM »
What in the world are you talking about?  As a practicing member of the scientific community, who has received my share of grant funding and published several dozen peer-reviewed articles, I've never once had that funding or publishing those papers contingent on adhering to anyone's "agenda". 
You're one of the good ones Cuz.

But we knew that.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #174 on: January 14, 2018, 08:24:44 AM »
I know our grant proposals would start out something like "Compound X is thought to treat cancer".  An NIH grant proposal would have some kind of link to cancer usually.  In reality, it was just a pure research kind of thing.  Nothing we did have squat to do with cancer.




Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #175 on: January 14, 2018, 08:35:25 AM »
Cousin Fred has a pretty solid synopsis consistent with my experience as well.  Scientists love little better than to find the flaw in another's argument.  It is a very antagonistic environment, by design.  I never quite adjusted to the way things were done in large companies where doing this was basically a no-no, you were supposed to sit and nod and not embarrass anyone there.  I had the misfortune of having a first boss who loved this challenging atmosphere but later bosses did not at all.


FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #176 on: January 14, 2018, 09:19:40 AM »
Never gets old...


I let slip "F" bombs much more than I'd like
when the temp dips below -20 I simply refer to it as "stupid" cold
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FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #177 on: January 14, 2018, 09:20:50 AM »
Dilly-dilly,maybe not looking forward to ice fishing
was surprised to see Okies walking on the ice a week back
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CWSooner

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #178 on: January 16, 2018, 07:00:16 PM »
Quote
CincyDawg:

I think the greenhouse analogy is pretty apt.  CO2 absorbs in the infrared band quite prominently.  This is easily measured and well known.  It is invisible in the visible band (duh).  So, light from the sun comes in and generates heat when it is absorbed by something.  That heat normally radiates back out into space and infrared radiation (IR).  If you "trap" the heat with glass, or CO2, or methane, or something, it doesn't radiate outward as much, and thus is trapped in a greenhouse type affair.
The explanation that the science guys in D/G&EnE gave me about real greenhouses is that they do not operate primarily through the glass trapping IR radiation but by physically keeping the warmed air from moving away.



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CWSooner

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #179 on: January 16, 2018, 07:03:13 PM »
was surprised to see Okies walking on the ice a week back
At least one of them--a retired doctor, I think, and a member of the U.S. 1956 Olympic ice-skating team--fell through the ice and died.
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FearlessF

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #180 on: January 16, 2018, 07:35:23 PM »
that's not good

ice is dangerous, even for experienced northerners

I prefer it thick and solid enough to drive on with a pickup
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #181 on: January 16, 2018, 08:28:52 PM »
The explanation that the science guys in D/G&EnE gave me about real greenhouses is that they do not operate primarily through the glass trapping IR radiation but by physically keeping the warmed air from moving away.

Well, I strongly disagree.  Nothing inside a greenhouse generates any heat.  Same with your car.  The glass traps heat inside because it is preventing IR from radiating outward.

Strongly disagree.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse





 

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