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I think they know what they are talking about, but none of us including them know many critical aspects of this virus with any accuracy at all.

Infection rate and style.  (R naught)

Immunity development (really key)

How many already have been infected (also important)

How many are ambulatory and contagious (really important)

Real mortality/hospitalization rates.

They are guessing at those numbers based on some initial experiences in cruise ships and the like.

Yeah it was really old.  No idea when it was built.  And perhaps it just didn't have a working elevator...?  I never saw one and nobody used one, during the week I stayed with her up there.

I only know that factoid about elevators because when we (AP U.S. History teachers) hit the urbanization of the late 19th century, NYC is sort of the paradigm for the whole thing.  So we cover the development of tenements, the types of tenements, changing laws, changing responses to those laws.
Contrary to what a lot of people assume, they weren't built to be slums.  But when one floor--meant to house four families--was instead housing 6 or 8 families, that's what they quickly became.
Here's a layout of the evolution of the NYC tenement.

[img width=500 height=271.989]https://www.skyscraper.org/housing-density/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/06/Dumbbell_Tenement.png[/img]

I only know that factoid about elevators because when we (AP U.S. History teachers) hit the urbanization of the late 19th century, NYC is sort of the paradigm for the whole thing.  So we cover the development of tenements, the types of tenements, changing laws, changing responses to those laws.
Contrary to what a lot of people assume, they weren't built to be slums.  But when one floor--meant to house four families--was instead housing 6 or 8 families, that's what they quickly became.
Here's a layout of the evolution of the NYC tenement.

The evolution of living/working space up there is definitely fascinating.

Not sure if you ever saw "The Gangs of New York" but the ending scene shows a view that illustrates the changes in Manhattan buildings/skyline over time, from across one of the rivers (don't know enough about NYC geography to know which river).

Found it here, the scene starts around the :50 second mark:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-8Lu7MRjQs

It is clear that the epidemiologists have no idea what they are talking about. From all the models I have seen produced by them even the best of them has way overshot the what has happened.

You do realize that many of the models were related to what would happen if we DIDN'T social distance, right? 

We've engaged in extreme behavior modification and this is still more deaths than the worst flu season of the last decade--and that's assuming we're not undercounting deaths, which is a real thing as we've discussed over the last few days. CDC estimates of "excess deaths" suggest that overall society deaths are FAR higher than usual, and only a portion of those have been attributed to COVID-19. 

And some of the models said 100-240K overall deaths IF we flatten the curve, which is what we seem to have done--we're well on our way to over 100K. And the numbers will continue to rise as we reopen--the goal is to get the curve flattened and not overwhelm the healthcare industry, and we'll have some additional deaths as we reopen because the healthcare industry has "room" for more patients. 

I've been wondering about that, too. I can't imagine what a pain it must be to maintain social distancing in those circumstances.

An old girlfriend of mine lived in Manhattan on the 5th floor of a 10-story walk-up-- no elevators at all.  Those staircases were narrow, not really even room for two people to pass one another side by side.  That's not a great situation, either.

Could you imagine moving into or out of that building and being on the 10th floor? All I can imagine is trying to get a king sized mattress up that many flights of stairs. Now my back it really hurting. 

Could you imagine moving into or out of that building and being on the 10th floor? All I can imagine is trying to get a king sized mattress up that many flights of stairs. Now my back it really hurting.

imagine hauling blocks of ice up there before refrigeration

From The Dispatch:
As of Monday night, there are now 1,180,288 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States (an increase of 22,247/1.9 percent since yesterday) and 68,922 deaths (an increase of 1,240/1.8 percent increase since yesterday), according to the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard, leading to a mortality rate among confirmed cases of 5.8 percent (the true mortality rate is likely lower, but it’s impossible to determine precisely due to incomplete testing regimens). Of 7,285,178 coronavirus tests conducted in the United States (231,812 conducted since yesterday), 16.2 percent have come back positive. Meanwhile, 187,180 have recovered from the virus (an increase of 7,028/3.9 percent since yesterday).

These are very encouraging numbers.  Social distancing is working, but damn if it isn't slow....