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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3416 on: May 04, 2020, 02:50:40 PM »
It's already happening.

Healthy pigs being killed as meatpacking backlog hits farms
That's the sad bit here... Costco just announced no more than 3 fresh meat items per customer per visit. So we may have meat shortages at the retail end.

So we have too much meat [farmer], but not enough meat [retail/consumer], because the meat packing plants can't provide enough throughput to get the animal to the customer. 

FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3417 on: May 04, 2020, 02:54:04 PM »
Exactly. The government has been sending mixed messages about this thing from the start. 

this is what our government and most governments do
they are usually looking for clues as to what is most popular
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3418 on: May 04, 2020, 03:05:57 PM »
The wife was telling me the news from France and how Macron is getting pilloried in the media.

This is not some singular American thing.  It probably doesn't happen much in North Korea though.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3419 on: May 04, 2020, 03:13:58 PM »
And I don't know your specific situation, but I am pretty sure you are still getting a paycheck. There are many people out there that are NOT getting paid, trying to figure out how they are going to pay the rent, utilities and put food on the table while looking at employment prospects and competing with 21 million others doing the same.

Also, there are those of us that live in areas that have a few cases of the virus, but have bigger issues with people committing suicide because they can't cope with it. Or those that need to see a doctor for other than Covid reasons, but are told to wait it out at home. Are those people assholes too?

Again, I don't know your situation, but not everyone shares your situation either. Don't blame those that have needs different than yours. Especially since the stated goad of the shut down has been accomplished.
I'll admit; I'm in a lucky position. Neither I nor my wife have been impacted. 

But when you read these quotes, what do you think?


Quote
[color=rgba(13, 13, 13, 0.9)]With the sun shining on the Nomads deck Sunday, customers said they are tired of being stuck at home.[/color]
[color=rgba(13, 13, 13, 0.9)]"I miss the interaction and being out," Lark Sampson, a customer said.[/color]
[color=rgba(13, 13, 13, 0.9)]Rich Barry, another customer, added, "It feels extraordinary to be in a restaurant because it’s been six weeks."[/color]
[color=rgba(13, 13, 13, 0.9)]They're just tired of it. [/color]


Quote
[color=rgba(13, 13, 13, 0.9)]Inside the restaurant, [owner] Gourey said he’s telling people to practice social distancing, but he says he believes he and his staff are young and healthy enough to survive COVID-19 if they contract the virus.[/color]
[color=rgba(13, 13, 13, 0.9)]"Six weeks it plenty of time, that’s what I believe," Gourey said. "On a sunny day like this, no one is at risk."[/color]
So a restaurant owner is apparently an epidemiologist, and that he and his staff are young and healthy enough that it's no big deal if they get it and "six weeks is plenty of time"... And clearly he's such an expert that he thinks on a sunny day, "no one is at risk."

The reason we have epidemiologists is because guys like this are clearly not in any position to evaluate the risk of infectious diseases during a pandemic.

I think starting to open things up makes sense, if people actually take the risks seriously and business owners try to protect themselves, their employees, and their customers as best they can. Yes, people will get it, and yes, people will die. But guys like this will make things worse.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3420 on: May 04, 2020, 03:17:51 PM »
Guys like that would be breaking regulations and subject to fines and closure by the B of H.

Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3421 on: May 04, 2020, 03:18:50 PM »
Exactly. The government has been sending mixed messages about this thing from the start. We were told that there would be millions of American's dying from the virus and the hospitals would be overrun. We had to shut down for a short time to prevent this from happening, so we did.

Then after we pretty much came to a standstill, millions being laid off, small business closing, now they move the goal posts. Now we have to stay under our beds in fear until we have a vaccine that could take over a year to develop. Those of us paying attention said NO! We did what you asked and it's time to go back to work. Sure some will get it and a few may die. But that happens everyday with all sorts of preventable causes. We could almost eliminate automobile deaths if we just lower the speed limit to 5 mph. Why not?

The fact is that there is always risk. Just waking up every morning puts you at risk for all kinds of problems. We will NEVER eradicate risks in our lives. We cannot hide forever in our homes hoping not to get sick. Someone has to work to put food or our plates and a roof over our heads. And in so doing, there will be risks. We just need to learn to live our lives in spite of the risks.
1918 is going to repeat itself, methinks.   They opened up too early, hit a second wave, and lost 200,000 additional American lives over the next 2 years.  I guess if you take the viewpoint that a second wave is inevitable, than I suppose it wouldn't matter if we open up early or not. 

Let's talk about opening up for a minute, and what that could mean.

Worst case scenario is this:  We open up too early, we hit a second, more severe round, our hospitals get overwhelmed, and we have to go back to strict social distancing or somehow live with a death toll of hundreds of thousands.  You think the economy is bad now?  I can't even begin to speculate how bad it would be.

Best case scenario:  We do a controlled opening, Coronavirus never really goes away, but also doesn't overwhelm the hospitals.  Death tolls continue to be in the 500-3000 per day range.  People learn to live with social distancing and make the best of it.  Restaurants and other businesses try and survive with a fraction of pre-outbreak customers.  Almost a guaranteed recession.  Major gatherings of people is still probably prohibited for the next few months, and possibly years.

Now, if we keep up with strict social distancing:

Best case scenario:  It becomes harder and harder for the virus to be transmitted because there are few possibilities for transmission out there.  We reach the ability to test quickly and in massive amounts.  Eventually we reach a level where we can start tracing individual outbreaks of COVID again.  We implement mandatory testing and possible quarantine periods for international travel.  Eventually we reach the level of New Zealand, South Korea, Iceland, China, Switzerland, Portugal, etc. etc. etc.  At infection rates this low we can open our country up without restriction, and we have saved many lives.  This is achievable as evidenced by the success of other countries.  We enter a small recession, but we come out of it without too much permanent damage.

Worst case scenario:  Coronavirus cases never decrease and remain flat for months.  Hospitals are not overwhelmed.  Thousands of lives are saved.  Economy is at 2008 levels, and looks to be stuck in a rut for the forseeable future.  Millions of Americans are in financial disarray.  It is a turd.

For me, the risk of opening up early is far too great, and the reward isn't worth it.  It isn't like the economy is going to suddenly turn into candy and unicorns because we opened up.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3422 on: May 04, 2020, 03:23:39 PM »
The second wave in 1918 was not the same flu, it had mutated into a much more deadly strain.

Cincydawg

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3424 on: May 04, 2020, 03:28:26 PM »
Guys like that would be breaking regulations and subject to fines and closure by the B of H.
You would think so. But with the, erm, demographics of Orange County, my guess is that the county officials don't want to enforce it either. This county doesn't have a lot of Gavin Newsom fans, I'm sayin'... 

Cincydawg

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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3426 on: May 04, 2020, 03:36:02 PM »
The second wave in 1918 was not the same flu, it had mutated into a much more deadly strain.
This is true, but a second wave, nonetheless.

Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3427 on: May 04, 2020, 03:38:18 PM »
This is true, but a second wave, nonetheless.
Actually, after researching it, we were hit by a THIRD wave...first wave was a bad flu, second wave was the mutated flue, third wave was just as deadly as the second.

I knew my memory was bad, I was certain a second wave of the bad stuff hit, didn't realize it was actually a third wave.  Learned some history, though, so that's a win.

Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3428 on: May 04, 2020, 03:40:27 PM »
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-scientists-think-the-novel-coronavirus-developed-naturally-not-in-a-chinese-lab/


Still absolutely zero evidence it came from a Chinese lab.  I have no idea why this became a thing in the first place.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3429 on: May 04, 2020, 03:42:40 PM »
Still absolutely zero evidence it came from a Chinese lab.  I have no idea why this became a thing in the first place.
Sure you do.  We all need a scapegoat.

 

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