Thanks to the increased power of the television executives, we now have what both schools have been fighting against, ever since Big Ten night games became a thing, a Paul Bunyan night game. The crazy trajectories of these programs has made this a top 5 MSU against a sub .500 UM in 2014; a battle of two top 15 teams in 2015; and a top 5 UM against a sub .500 MSU in 2016. It seems like Michigan is a bit worse than a year ago, and Michigan State is somewhat better. How much better? You'd think this would go a long way toward telling us, but perhaps not. The Spartans, in all forms, have had a way of getting up for this game. Even last year in what should have been a romp, was not. Michigan fans' frustration with Wilton Speight had been well documented. When he was knocked out in the Purdue game, and John O'Korn came in and jump started the offense, they wondered if an injury to their starting quarterback may have saved their season. That remains to be seen. He wouldn't be the first injury replacement to look really good until a team has time to prepare for him. Last year Speight was the best player on Michigan's offense in the win, with the Spartans shutting down the run, save for a couple Eddie McDoom jet sweeps. That was peak Speight, in the middle of three straight games with an Opponent Adjusted QBR over 93. The problem is that in the six games since his best is 67, and that was the only game he was over 50 (average). O'Korn showed good accuracy against Purdue, working on probably a limited playbook. The bye week was well times for him though, and now he's had two weeks to prepare. It's doubtful that same gameplan can work again. No matter who the personnel is, Mark Dantonio's defense is going to stack the line, and be aggressive. The teams that can offer protection, and beat them over the top, or avoid the pressure and exploit broken plays are the ones who beat them. We saw Iowa try a conservative approach last week, and they got nothing. I'm not convinced Michigan's offense is any better than Iowa's, so I think a similar plan will go similarly. This could be an old fashioned Big Ten game with 30-45 minutes spent with each team establishing themselves. Both defenses are good, and are built from the front back. Not ideal for what Dantonio wants to do, if you have the weapons to stretch it, as Notre Dame did. Michigan's line has not looked good, so the question is how much pressure Michigan State can get with four. Michigan State's offensive line has been awful up the middle, particularly in run blocking, but the pass blocking, particularly on the edge, has been solid. But they haven't faced anything like this Michigan front four. I think Michigan hits enough big plays, and eventually too many three and outs wear down the Spartan defense, and there's no way they avoid their turnover turmoil a second straight week.
MICHIGAN 28, MICHIGAN STATE 13
