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Topic: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...

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MrNubbz

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I’ve reached that age where my mind goes from “You probably shouldn’t say that.” To “What the hell, let’s see what happens.”

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #267 on: March 18, 2021, 10:05:17 PM »
too early to tell, but if a battery manufacturer makes a break through, they could be making batteries for all vehicles
I'm anticipating standardized battery packs (or whatever) for each major class of cars.  Sub-compact, compact, full sedan, light truck, etc.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #268 on: March 18, 2021, 10:25:50 PM »
now you've started it
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #269 on: March 19, 2021, 10:36:47 AM »
So you end up with sort of a guessing game. Can you build transit through less expensive land before it's gobbled up? Can you guess that a place will grow in that way. Some don't (Phoenix, Houston). But that's the same way with roads. Building bigger, more robust highway systems that allow for better traffic flow is easier and cheaper when it's not needed. But that's infrastructure.

And the takeaway is kinda an odd one. Like, public transit is super pricy. And things that make driving easier are also really pricy and unless you get it fantastically right often don't make stuff better. So I suppose the answer is do nothing a let places choke themselves out, but in the end people have this pesky habit of trying to do things to make the places they live nicer, for better or worse.
I think the last statement is what irks me.

People act like I'm some sort of buzzkill who is anti-transit because I just don't think it's worthwhile to do something nice for a place to live. And that we should just sometimes "build it and they will come" and it'll end up being nicer than not doing it, so what's the harm?

The problem is that the harm is real, and it's called opportunity cost. 

I like transit. I used to use the light rail when I lived in San Jose. When I go to San Francisco for a weekend vacation, parking is so expensive and there's little reason to have a car anyway, so I'd rather ride BART in from the airport to downtown. Same with Denver--if I'm staying downtown, I can ride the light rail in from the airport right to downtown and be in the heart of the city. 

But the issue is that when you build light rail, it's tremendously expensive to build, operate, and maintain. That money has to come from somewhere, and because ridership is usually too low to make transit self-funding, it means that you're crowding out other public transit in favor of light rail. 

If fundamentally the goal of public transit is to help the most people get around the city the most efficiently, light rail isn't usually the optimal solution. If it means then that you are basically subsidizing light rail for rich suburbanites while eliminating bus service for the working poor, it isn't exactly what I'd call a great strategy.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #270 on: March 19, 2021, 10:42:14 AM »
I'm anticipating standardized battery packs (or whatever) for each major class of cars.  Sub-compact, compact, full sedan, light truck, etc.

Where I think we'll eventually have full standardization is in rapid charging infrastructure. 

Right now there is a standard called CCS, while Tesla is being like Apple and going proprietary. I believe if you want to charge a Tesla on a CCS charger, you need an adapter. Tesla has their own Supercharger infrastructure, and other EV makers are talking about building out charging infrastructure themselves.

Eventually I think that all goes away and will be provided by third-parties much like today's gas stations--which aren't owned or operated by automakers. 

EV makers had to do it early because EVs aren't very good without charging infrastructure, and nobody was going to build charging infrastructure until EVs were common enough to justify the investment, so it was a chicken and egg problem. EV makers had to build it out themselves. 

But now that EVs are common, I think rapid charging will become its own market, and be operated by companies who specialize in that itself. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #271 on: March 19, 2021, 11:14:32 AM »
Yeah, there is profit to be had building charging stations.  I'm  a bit surprised the current filling stations haven't jumped on this (yet), probably capital issues.

We should start seeing signs on freeways for charging stations in addition to filling stations.

I guess the car does that for you now.

Cincydawg

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #272 on: March 19, 2021, 11:16:39 AM »
Well that's kind of important to know.  I was asking about the whole battery thing, whatever that is, not a tiny portion.
I wouldn't think you could possibly have thought something a bit larger than an AA battery could drive  a vehicle.

The battery packs are heavy and large and are used to stabilize the frame.  They also get situated very low so the car has a low CoG.

They usually handle pretty well as a result.  They accelerate well also.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #273 on: March 19, 2021, 11:30:18 AM »
Maybe it will wind up being charging stations....and on your car's screen, a whole new industry of 8 or 13 or 17 minute shows becomes a thing.
All I know for sure is that people are too impatient for current charging times.  They'll have to come down to the time it tekes us to fill a tank of gas now for it to be 'the way.'
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

847badgerfan

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #274 on: March 19, 2021, 11:49:45 AM »
Also be nice to get to 5-600 miles. Like I get with my car.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

FearlessF

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #275 on: March 19, 2021, 11:57:32 AM »
if you could charge for  5-10 minutes a few times as opposed to sitting there for 45 minutes for a full charge that would be useful

then 750 miles from my place to my brother would be doable in 12 hours

from what I understand about lithium, this is how it could work
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #276 on: March 19, 2021, 12:09:00 PM »
Maybe it will wind up being charging stations....and on your car's screen, a whole new industry of 8 or 13 or 17 minute shows becomes a thing.
All I know for sure is that people are too impatient for current charging times.  They'll have to come down to the time it tekes us to fill a tank of gas now for it to be 'the way.'
I think this discounts the fact that the only time a typical EV user charges at a rapid charger is on a road trip.

How many are willing to accept a slightly longer time for a road trip two or three times a year to literally NEVER visit a charger otherwise--since their car is charged in their garage while they sleep.

if you could charge for  5-10 minutes a few times as opposed to sitting there for 45 minutes for a full charge that would be useful

then 750 miles from my place to my brother would be doable in 12 hours

from what I understand about lithium, this is how it could work
That's actually how it typically works for Tesla. You can get from nearly empty to ~70% battery in about 20 minutes, and then it's another 25 minutes to get the additional 30%.

If you plan your route into the car's navigation, it knows where the Superchargers are along the route. If you stop at one to charge, and there's another only 160 miles away, it'll only fill you up to say 200 miles of charge instead of filling it to 100%, to save time and plan for you to stop at that next one. 

There are also things that are done to precondition the battery to be able to charge faster, and it will start doing that on your route a few miles before you get to the charger to make sure the battery is ready. 

Sure, it's not 5-10 minutes, it's more like 20 minutes, but that's not 45 minutes at every stop. 

FearlessF

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #277 on: March 19, 2021, 12:23:09 PM »
Getting a restroom and food/drink break for 20 minutes is OK.  Longer than that would be tough for me.
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

NorthernOhioBuckeye

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #278 on: March 19, 2021, 12:44:41 PM »
As someone that takes a few long trips in the car every year (family/kids, friends in different states), I like to drive well beyond 160-200 miles between stops. I usually go from tank of gas until almost empty between stops. And even then, I stop long enough to fill the tank and use the restroom, then it's back on the road.

I just got back from a trip to Louisiana last week and was able to go about 400 miles between stops. Not sure I could handle stopping every couple of hours for 20 mins. That would drive me crazy. 

But being as I live out in the sticks, so to say, I don't envision going EV for quite some time. Not enough (or any) infrastructure in my area to support such a thing.  

bayareabadger

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #279 on: March 19, 2021, 12:44:53 PM »
Also be nice to get to 5-600 miles. Like I get with my car.
Hybrid? 

 

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