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Topic: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...

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FearlessF

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #280 on: March 19, 2021, 12:50:47 PM »
As someone that takes a few long trips in the car every year (family/kids, friends in different states), I like to drive well beyond 160-200 miles between stops. I usually go from tank of gas until almost empty between stops. And even then, I stop long enough to fill the tank and use the restroom, then it's back on the road.

I just got back from a trip to Louisiana last week and was able to go about 400 miles between stops. Not sure I could handle stopping every couple of hours for 20 mins. That would drive me crazy.

But being as I live out in the sticks, so to say, I don't envision going EV for quite some time. Not enough (or any) infrastructure in my area to support such a thing. 
exactly

quite some time for me is very possibly, not in my lifetime
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Cincydawg

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #281 on: March 19, 2021, 02:33:12 PM »
If you look back 20 years at EVs, there was on, a GM car that failed.  I forget it's range, it was not much.  Tesla did put this on the map.  Now nearly every car maker not from Japan is jumping in on it.  

Even the Chevy Bolt today is a decent vehicle, it's just expensive, but 250 mile range is pretty decent.  These aren't suited for everyone obviously, but they will become more and more accepted, usually as a second car.

Advantages:

Very low "fuel" costs
Almost no maintenance - brake pads almost never wear out because of RGB, and no oil to change
Can recharge at night

Disadvantages:

Initial cost
Long distance travel requires stops to recharge
Range drops over time

bayareabadger

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #282 on: March 19, 2021, 03:10:55 PM »
I think the last statement is what irks me.

People act like I'm some sort of buzzkill who is anti-transit because I just don't think it's worthwhile to do something nice for a place to live. And that we should just sometimes "build it and they will come" and it'll end up being nicer than not doing it, so what's the harm?

The problem is that the harm is real, and it's called opportunity cost.

I like transit. I used to use the light rail when I lived in San Jose. When I go to San Francisco for a weekend vacation, parking is so expensive and there's little reason to have a car anyway, so I'd rather ride BART in from the airport to downtown. Same with Denver--if I'm staying downtown, I can ride the light rail in from the airport right to downtown and be in the heart of the city.

But the issue is that when you build light rail, it's tremendously expensive to build, operate, and maintain. That money has to come from somewhere, and because ridership is usually too low to make transit self-funding, it means that you're crowding out other public transit in favor of light rail.

If fundamentally the goal of public transit is to help the most people get around the city the most efficiently, light rail isn't usually the optimal solution. If it means then that you are basically subsidizing light rail for rich suburbanites while eliminating bus service for the working poor, it isn't exactly what I'd call a great strategy.
OK. I think I can say we're friendly. But on like three of these posts, you've basically capped by saying "You know who likes walkable nice urban downtowns? Entitled jerks." I don't think you're a buzzkill. But that read a little buzz-kill-y. 

And you described density being "forced" on people as people look to reinvigorate downtowns. I get that it's working toward a goal that might be inefficient, but for better or worse, there's a general sense that having a hollowed out downtown like Detroit's was (or Times square was) is bad. And it might not be, but I don't know I'd get too worked up about people feeling that way. (Also, in the Bay Area, your central areas are often more expensive than the suburbs, which is a curveball)

The SF example is an excellent and interesting one and I think cuts to the core (also, we're conflating rails. BART isn't light rail, MUNI is, though it has non-light rail parts). Efficiency can mean different things. Rail travel like BART is more efficent on a time front. This we know. We know this because you didn't take a bus from San Jose or the airport even though it's cheaper. Now the argument might be, time saved isn't worth money, but it's a factor that at least has to be acknowledged. And poor folks, just like rich folks, appreciate getting home 40 minutes earlier because they're on a train instead of a bus (I've ridden BART, plenty of diversity on those trains). 

Now, don’t read this as a full-throated endorsement of all kinds of light rail everywhere. Phoenix is a place without density. Houston too. It’s tricky because you’re kind of projecting down the line. If you project density, you’re rather build that earlier rather than later. A Bay Area with no BART isn’t more efficent to get around. It’s just cheaper to get around slowly.

I don’t know the answer and kinda waffle. But I’m unconvinced that if we could convert all of BARTs ridership into bus riders that we’d be worlds more efficient in the kind of mid-range people-moving that BART does (now perhaps the answer is to be more like LA, where mid-range people moving is an hour in the car or not at all, I dunno).

bayareabadger

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #283 on: March 19, 2021, 03:12:56 PM »
As someone that takes a few long trips in the car every year (family/kids, friends in different states), I like to drive well beyond 160-200 miles between stops. I usually go from tank of gas until almost empty between stops. And even then, I stop long enough to fill the tank and use the restroom, then it's back on the road.
Same, give or take some nice lunches. Gas, relieve self, eat, sometimes eat on the road. 

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #284 on: March 19, 2021, 04:03:42 PM »
I get plenty of gas while I'm driving.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #285 on: March 19, 2021, 04:20:23 PM »
This city is going crazy with new construction.

Urbanize Atlanta: Commercial Real Estate Development News

Being near a MARTA station is a definite selling point, though I wonder how often folks use it who pay $3 K a month for an apt.  We used it for domestic air travel before the China thing.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #286 on: March 19, 2021, 04:32:23 PM »
Even the Chevy Bolt today is a decent vehicle, it's just expensive, but 250 mile range is pretty decent.  These aren't suited for everyone obviously, but they will become more and more accepted, usually as a second car.
The second car is the key and that was how foreign cars got their toe hold in America after WWII. The German VW Beetle was initially seen as a low status marker in the single car family era. Then increasing numbers were sold as second cars to families and it became a status symbol. (Ie, it went from "all I can afford is a Beetle" to "I can afford a second car".)

EV's are expensive so they obviously do not suffer from the low status issue that early German and Japanese cars had to overcome but I do think that in most of the Country they will get a toe hold first as second cars.

Downtown Cincinnati is 218mi from me and Downtown Columbus is 111. I'd be very leery today of taking an EV with a range of 250mi either to Cincy or on a round trip to Columbus. Those would only leave me with 28-32 miles of range to spare. I'd be worried that would not be enough in the case of a detour or congestion or whatever.  However, I would consider one if my wife and I were in the market right now because if either or both of us needed to make a trip like that the one on the trip could use the non-EV.

Advantages:

Very low "fuel" costs
Almost no maintenance - brake pads almost never wear out because of RGB, and no oil to change
Can recharge at night

Disadvantages:

Initial cost
Long distance travel requires stops to recharge
Range drops over time
This seems like a good summation to me. One extra disadvantage and potential solution:

Since I have kids, I would consider it a disadvantage to have to plug the car in every night and unplug it in the morning. When I was childless this wouldn't have been much of an issue, but now when I go to the car I usually have a diaper bag backpack on my back, a car seat for my six month old daughter in one hand, my two year old son's hand in my other hand, and bottles/sippy cups/etc somewhere in there. I'd be concerned that I'd either forget to plug it in at night and wake up with an insufficiently charged car or forget to unplug it in the morning and break the cord, outlet, or car.

Could wireless charging work for EV's? It works great now for my toothbrush, smart watch, and phone but is it too inefficient to scale up to the level of charging a car or is there some other issue that I'm missing? What I am imagining here is some kind of charge pad that you would put on your garage floor and plug in then just park over it and viola, car charges! Is this impossible? Too inefficient, too much juice, too dangerous?

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #287 on: March 19, 2021, 05:36:45 PM »
OK. I think I can say we're friendly. But on like three of these posts, you've basically capped by saying "You know who likes walkable nice urban downtowns? Entitled jerks." I don't think you're a buzzkill. But that read a little buzz-kill-y.

And you described density being "forced" on people as people look to reinvigorate downtowns. I get that it's working toward a goal that might be inefficient, but for better or worse, there's a general sense that having a hollowed out downtown like Detroit's was (or Times square was) is bad. And it might not be, but I don't know I'd get too worked up about people feeling that way. (Also, in the Bay Area, your central areas are often more expensive than the suburbs, which is a curveball)

The SF example is an excellent and interesting one and I think cuts to the core (also, we're conflating rails. BART isn't light rail, MUNI is, though it has non-light rail parts). Efficiency can mean different things. Rail travel like BART is more efficent on a time front. This we know. We know this because you didn't take a bus from San Jose or the airport even though it's cheaper. Now the argument might be, time saved isn't worth money, but it's a factor that at least has to be acknowledged. And poor folks, just like rich folks, appreciate getting home 40 minutes earlier because they're on a train instead of a bus (I've ridden BART, plenty of diversity on those trains).

Now, don’t read this as a full-throated endorsement of all kinds of light rail everywhere. Phoenix is a place without density. Houston too. It’s tricky because you’re kind of projecting down the line. If you project density, you’re rather build that earlier rather than later. A Bay Area with no BART isn’t more efficent to get around. It’s just cheaper to get around slowly.

I don’t know the answer and kinda waffle. But I’m unconvinced that if we could convert all of BARTs ridership into bus riders that we’d be worlds more efficient in the kind of mid-range people-moving that BART does (now perhaps the answer is to be more like LA, where mid-range people moving is an hour in the car or not at all, I dunno).
I wasn't trying to be contentious... It was perhaps a reaction to the "sometimes people want to do something nice where they live" i.e. I must not want to do something nice where I live. Probably an overreaction on my part. 

I used to take the light rail back when I lived in San Jose in 2001. Oddly, it wasn't faster. My commute was from the very south end of San Jose up to the north end of San Jose. 

  • No traffic: 20-25 minutes
  • Normal rush hour traffic: 1 hour
  • Light rail: 1 hour
  • On a motorcycle with lane splitting, regardless of traffic: 20-25 minutes


I enjoyed it because I didn't have to fight traffic... And also because it was free... Subsidized by my employer--and maybe even the city? Not sure.

If it had cost me $200+/mo I probably would have stayed in a car. My roommate was a coworker, so we could carpool when needed. I also had flex time, so I could have shifted work hours a bit to avoid some of the worst of the traffic. 

I kinda view the light rail in San Jose as an unnecessary luxury, as San Jose is much more "sprawl" than SF. Traffic can suck, but parking doesn't. 

SF is definitely one place where the density makes sense. Especially because the cost of living in SF means that many SF workers have to commute in from elsewhere, and parking in SF is madness. 

Oddly in SF we've got workers who can't afford to live there coming into the city via BART to work, while tech employers on the Peninsula operate buses to bring folks who can afford to live in SF down to their jobs on the peninsula. What a system!

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #288 on: March 19, 2021, 05:39:49 PM »
Since I have kids, I would consider it a disadvantage to have to plug the car in every night and unplug it in the morning. When I was childless this wouldn't have been much of an issue, but now when I go to the car I usually have a diaper bag backpack on my back, a car seat for my six month old daughter in one hand, my two year old son's hand in my other hand, and bottles/sippy cups/etc somewhere in there. I'd be concerned that I'd either forget to plug it in at night and wake up with an insufficiently charged car or forget to unplug it in the morning and break the cord, outlet, or car.

Could wireless charging work for EV's? It works great now for my toothbrush, smart watch, and phone but is it too inefficient to scale up to the level of charging a car or is there some other issue that I'm missing? What I am imagining here is some kind of charge pad that you would put on your garage floor and plug in then just park over it and viola, car charges! Is this impossible? Too inefficient, too much juice, too dangerous?
Depending on your commute, you may not need to plug it in every night. 

But that's not much of a disadvantage. I wouldn't put dirty little kids those ages into an expensive EV anyway! :57:

Wireless charging isn't sufficiently strong enough yet to do it. It's also very lossy, so you'd end up wasting TONS of money in your electric bill on charging that your car didn't actually get to use. 

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #289 on: March 19, 2021, 06:02:17 PM »
Here's the state of Tesla full self driving tech...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=antLneVlxcs

https://www.motorbiscuit.com/tesla-full-self-driving-beta-is-surprisingly-sketchy-driving-across-this-city/


Quote
Since Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system doesn’t allow your car to drive itself, you always have to be ready to take control of the steering wheel. The video shown above starts quite well with the system effectively navigating through moderate traffic. However, once it encounters additional obstacles such as stopped cars, it quickly becomes confused. Eventually, the EV loses its place on the lanes, switching back and forth quickly.
Later on, in the video, we see Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system begin to struggle with poorly painted lines on the road itself. As a result, the driver has to intervene as the system gets confused continuously. One of the scariest portions of the video comes as the EV approaches a set of parked cars. The system mistakenly reads a turning lane as one of the normal lanes and proceeds forward, coming to a stop directly behind a parked car.
Thankfully, the driver in this video remained very vigilant while utilizing the system. Given its major mistakes, a distracted driver could’ve easily created a serious accident.



Cincydawg

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #290 on: March 19, 2021, 06:07:36 PM »
My step son (who is a fine fellow indeed, and he just fly back to SF) lives in  South Beach, SF, and works for some fruit company down south in some cup-city.  He takes the company bus, which he says is nice and has wifi.  Well, he would if they worked from not at home.

He said he worked here in ATL just as well as at home, and the night life now is of course far superior.  We had a great time last night at a Basque restaurant (Cook and Soldiers) with our neighbor physics professor guy (who is a very fine fellow as well).

I just did my taxes and I ended up owing, for a change.  I need to check a few things, I still get some income from Ohio.

This is the second year in a row using the standard deduction.  I'm going to pay off the mortgage soon.  It's at 3.375% which normally sounds like a "deal" if you can deduct it.  Property tax is a bit stiff.

It is interesting that we focused mostly on EVs and autonomous.  What else is going to change?  Working from home?  Vaccines?  Amazon has taken over retail to a sig degree.  Did you foresee that a decade back?  I didn't.

Cincydawg

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #291 on: March 19, 2021, 06:10:08 PM »
Behold Atlanta's priciest home, a $14M buildout atop the Waldorf Astoria | Urbanize Atlanta
Behold Atlanta's priciest home, a $14M buildout atop the Waldorf Astoria | Urbanize Atlanta

I prefer our place.  We have decks.  Three of them.

Cincydawg

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #292 on: March 19, 2021, 06:19:16 PM »


There is a concept to cap that freeway with a park on a deck which would connect east and west midtown for a billion dollars.  The west to the right is not as well developed.  The freeway is a vast river of 16 lanes of ridiculous traffic every day.

We live far left out of view.

bayareabadger

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Re: Major changes in our lives over the next decade ...
« Reply #293 on: March 19, 2021, 06:26:55 PM »
I wasn't trying to be contentious... It was perhaps a reaction to the "sometimes people want to do something nice where they live" i.e. I must not want to do something nice where I live. Probably an overreaction on my part.

I used to take the light rail back when I lived in San Jose in 2001. Oddly, it wasn't faster. My commute was from the very south end of San Jose up to the north end of San Jose.

  • No traffic: 20-25 minutes
  • Normal rush hour traffic: 1 hour
  • Light rail: 1 hour
  • On a motorcycle with lane splitting, regardless of traffic: 20-25 minutes


I enjoyed it because I didn't have to fight traffic... And also because it was free... Subsidized by my employer--and maybe even the city? Not sure.

If it had cost me $200+/mo I probably would have stayed in a car. My roommate was a coworker, so we could carpool when needed. I also had flex time, so I could have shifted work hours a bit to avoid some of the worst of the traffic.

I kinda view the light rail in San Jose as an unnecessary luxury, as San Jose is much more "sprawl" than SF. Traffic can suck, but parking doesn't.

SF is definitely one place where the density makes sense. Especially because the cost of living in SF means that many SF workers have to commute in from elsewhere, and parking in SF is madness.

Oddly in SF we've got workers who can't afford to live there coming into the city via BART to work, while tech employers on the Peninsula operate buses to bring folks who can afford to live in SF down to their jobs on the peninsula. What a system!
For sure. All good. 

It does seem silly, though honestly, it's probably growing in efficiency. Traffic is just getting more ridiculous there. It's odd. 

I will say this, if all the buses were like those tech buses, lets go for more buses. Those things have wifi and are nice. The only issue is that instead of getting that hour of transit to read a book or doodle on a phone, you have to work. Those folks are smart about spurring workaholism. 

 

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