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Topic: OT-Politics Thread: please TRY to keep it civil, you damned dirty apes

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MaximumSam

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #40236 on: November 22, 2024, 06:22:31 PM »
I like Nate Silver a lot because he rejects a lot of the "vibes" analysis common among the television political people. It's definitely tough to stick to facts when the vibes are so strong.

SFBadger96

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #40237 on: November 22, 2024, 07:02:19 PM »
Why are you angry when white guys do it? 
Because that person raped and murdered someone close to me. I'm not going to care what color they are. I'm going to be incredibly angry. Wouldn't you be?

SuperMario

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #40238 on: November 22, 2024, 07:09:41 PM »
So the answer is, "I feel like..." I get it, but when talking about macro policies like this, it's an awfully flimsy way to build an argument. I get that there are problems with data sets, but the answer has to revolve around trying to solve those problems, not just disregard all data.

The Heritage data I posted, above, about voter fraud might be my favorite one. Yes, there is voter fraud, but looking at that very consrvative organization's attempt to document it, and you'll see that it is an a near infinitessimal level (and it gets prosecuted).

What if the reason you think there is a bigger immigration problem now than in 2008 is because it's talked about so much more now than it was then? It's like the meme about Gen-X-ers being a lot more worried about quick sand than it turns out we should have been. If it is talked about a lot, it appears to be a bigger problem. But appearances can be deceiving. We all know that. So we turn to data. And yes, it's fair to point out the inadequacies in the data, but there has to be something more than just, "I feel like..."
And this is how your side attempts to discredit. It throws out blatantly wrong data, then when the other side says, well, that data is a lie and causes me to stand even firmer in what my experiences tell me, then your side attempts to claim the stance is formed by “feelings” rather than forming logical conclusions by experience. We also tend to seek feedback from people that are knee deep in areas that can confirm the data is bullshit.

People marked dead from Covid when they died in a car accident. I have a close friend, whose father’s death was marked as a Covid death when he had terminal cancer he had been fighting for years. You want to discredit firm opinions, using logic, intelligent investigation into a topic, which leads to forming an opinion, while you call it a weak opinion on feelings, then so be it. I think a weaker stance is forming an opinion on wildly flawed data and not questioning the reason the data is that flawed. But then again, some people believe that John Smith that died in a plane crash truly did have Covid as a cause of death.

MaximumSam

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #40239 on: November 22, 2024, 07:23:16 PM »
Quote
And this is how your side attempts to discredit.
Well, ok. But this is the definition of vibes over facts. I have no doubt at all that some COVID data is flat out wrong. But deaths spiked in the United States, and abroad, during the COVID. Either that is the world's biggest coincidence, or lots of extra people died due to COVID. So John Smith actually died from a car accident as opposed to COVID. Some file clerk entered that wrong. That means...what exactly?

SFBadger96

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #40240 on: November 22, 2024, 07:24:17 PM »
It's not "my" data--it's the data that's available. If you--or "your side"--has other, better data, share it. Otherwise we're just discussing feelings. Human feelings are notoriously divorced from ground truth.

You say the data about undocumented/illegal immigration is wrong. What evidence do you have of that? And if that evidence is so readily available, share the better data set that incorporates that--or even how that evidence materially changes this data.

If instead we just want to discuss the popularity of attacking undocumented/illegal immigrants: news flash, attacking that group of people has always been popular. Humans are excellent at othering. We are tribal. That's why I'm a Wisconsin fan, you're a Michigan fan, and there are some people weird enough to be Ohio State, USC, and even Alabama fans. I mean, seriously. What's the rationale for that?

Honestbuckeye

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #40241 on: November 22, 2024, 07:30:36 PM »
Because that person raped and murdered someone close to me. I'm not going to care what color they are. I'm going to be incredibly angry. Wouldn't you be?
Interesting. You brought skin color into this conversation.  Not me.  
 
Will be honest- this election seems like a rejection of people who do that.  People that make everything about race.  I am glad that happened 
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

SFBadger96

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #40242 on: November 22, 2024, 07:32:47 PM »
Actually, no. I asked who the targeted group was--the only person brave enough to respond admitted that it is Latinos.

So when this thread talks about the threat of illegal immigration, that's who you are talking about.

SuperMario

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #40243 on: November 22, 2024, 07:48:01 PM »
Well, ok. But this is the definition of vibes over facts. I have no doubt at all that some COVID data is flat out wrong. But deaths spiked in the United States, and abroad, during the COVID. Either that is the world's biggest coincidence, or lots of extra people died due to COVID. So John Smith actually died from a car accident as opposed to COVID. Some file clerk entered that wrong. That means...what exactly?
Do you seriously not get this? Some clerk? Yet it was documented that many “clerks” apparently accidentally documented deaths incorrectly across the country in a staggering amount of examples. When there’s that many accidental mistakes, it’s not a coincidence and there’s clearly an agenda behind it. If any part of the data is purposely manipulated, therefore a lie, it should be immediately discredited while starting to question why it was being manipulated one direction.


jgvol

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #40244 on: November 22, 2024, 07:49:53 PM »
Actually, no. I asked who the targeted group was--the only person brave enough to respond admitted that it is Latinos.

So when this thread talks about the threat of illegal immigration, that's who you are talking about.

I’ll toss in the Haitians, Somalis, Saudis, and Chinese.  

And a bunch more.  

Do I win the bravery contest to your gotcha question that wasn’t worth answering the first 3 times you asked it?  Since we all know the answer but somehow it’s taboo to speak it aloud. 

Now you have the bigot fuel that you were fishing for.  Enjoy!

SuperMario

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #40245 on: November 22, 2024, 07:51:01 PM »
It's not "my" data--it's the data that's available. If you--or "your side"--has other, better data, share it. Otherwise we're just discussing feelings. Human feelings are notoriously divorced from ground truth.

You say the data about undocumented/illegal immigration is wrong. What evidence do you have of that? And if that evidence is so readily available, share the better data set that incorporates that--or even how that evidence materially changes this data.

If instead we just want to discuss the popularity of attacking undocumented/illegal immigrants: news flash, attacking that group of people has always been popular. Humans are excellent at othering. We are tribal. That's why I'm a Wisconsin fan, you're a Michigan fan, and there are some people weird enough to be Ohio State, USC, and even Alabama fans. I mean, seriously. What's the rationale for that?
this is what’s hilarious. Once again you talk about feelings being disconnected, you claim there’s simply no better data, while dismissing or being “disconnected” from people like MB who are on the ground, that can give real examples of how the data is likely crap. Just because he doesn’t have an agency title behind him.

so explain to me how your data is less disconnected that an individual we have known for over a decade that has hands on experience completely contradicting the data. 

MaximumSam

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #40246 on: November 22, 2024, 07:52:34 PM »
Do you seriously not get this? Some clerk? Yet it was documented that many “clerks” apparently accidentally documented deaths incorrectly across the country in a staggering amount of examples. When there’s that many accidental mistakes, it’s not a coincidence and there’s clearly an agenda behind it. If any part of the data is purposely manipulated, therefore a lie, it should be immediately discredited while starting to question why it was being manipulated one direction.
What I'm saying is that there were many more deaths during COVID. So throwing out all references to why they died, COVID almost certainly caused a bunch of excess deaths. So what exactly is the point of debating particular causes of death?

The implication is always this: I know a bit part of this data is wrong, and so all the data might be wrong, and so we anything we imagine might be true. 

Honestbuckeye

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #40247 on: November 22, 2024, 07:55:51 PM »
Actually, no. I asked who the targeted group was--the only person brave enough to respond admitted that it is Latinos.

So when this thread talks about the threat of illegal immigration, that's who you are talking about.
No. That’s not who I am talking about. That’s seems to be who you are talking about.  Because the data says the border crossings by illegals are coming from all over the world. 
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

Honestbuckeye

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #40248 on: November 22, 2024, 08:00:23 PM »
this is what’s hilarious. Once again you talk about feelings being disconnected, you claim there’s simply no better data, while dismissing or being “disconnected” from people like MB who are on the ground, that can give real examples of how the data is likely crap. Just because he doesn’t have an agency title behind him.

so explain to me how your data is less disconnected that an individual we have known for over a decade that has hands on experience completely contradicting the data.
Your Wasting your time SM.  We have been watching- for 4 years- things that the administration denies using BS stats.  Crime, inflation, unchecked borders, Fentanyl.   

The people just called BS. Election.  Now SOME OF THEM are admit they were full of it, and some are doubling down.  Let’s see how that works out.  
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

SFBadger96

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #40249 on: November 22, 2024, 08:23:34 PM »
Several people on this thread said that only some people in this country have anything to worry about as far as enforcement regarding illegal immigration. I presumed--as most people seem to--that meant people who look Latino, and asked the question to see if I was right (because the suggestion was that 70-75% of people in our country don't have anything to worry about. But yes, there are immigrants from other places who come here illegally. That's why I also mentioned people from Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. Canadians (including white Canadians) are also a significant contributor to the undocumented number, but they don't seem to show up in the ads about immigration.

My point is that in the state I live in, only 35% of the residents (and most are citizens) don't fall into one of those other groups. And my state isn't some 800K person state with three electoral votes. 1 out of every 8 people in the country lives here. So 65% of our population is a big portion of it. And if it's only Latinos, that's 40% of our population; 50% of New Mexico's population, 40% of Texans, etc.

So when we talk about who needs to worry about the enforcement here, it may well be that folks in the upper midwest are largely insulated from it--but Texans (and I know there are several on this thread), and Californians, for instance, may not feel quite so safe whether its for themselves or for their friends. 

I'm not calling anyone on this thread a bigot. But I am more than happy to call out the incongruity of saying that most Americans have nothing to worry about regarding immigration enforcement, when the people who are likely to be asked to justify their citizenship make up a huge proportion of some of our states--including (at least) two of our biggest. And, as noted before, fewer than 50% of Americans have easy access to proof of citizenship that they can carry with them at all times.

Now, do I really think that roving bands of ICE employees will randomly stop Latinos everywhere in California? No, I don't think that. But I do think that any effort to "round up" millions of undocumented immigrants will necessarily result in a lot of citizens being questioned about their status in their own homeland. And the basis for that will be their outward appearance. That's problematic. And there will also necessarily be mistakes made, as there already have been, which will hurt American citizens. And one of my questions, posed several pages back, is how many of those mistakes we're willing to accept as a people. As noted, in more than half of our states, the people are willing to execute one innocent person for about every 19 guilty people for heinous murders. It surprises me that we are willing to do that, but we are. 

So, how willing are we to harass and in some cases mistakenly arrest and deport American citizens? 
Some people have suggested we should be able to set aside our care for those fellow citizens because the immigration problem here is so dire. Ok--I don't share that opinion, but--as has also been noted in this thread--the candidates I vote for aren't in the majority, and those that are seem to have a more permissive view on this subject than I do. That's how democracies work (within certain guardrails), but I think it's fair to ask people where they stand on this. 

How much is too much, and which Americans are we asking to bear the burden of these policies?

 

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