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Topic: OT-Politics Thread: please TRY to keep it civil, you damned dirty apes

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Cincydawg

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #39102 on: November 08, 2024, 11:11:16 AM »
I don't know that they even have to prove it. They just have to allege it. I assume Trump will issue some edict that we will deport 10 million or 20 million or whatever number he thinks of that day, then passes the duty of details down the pike.

Sounds to me like a court case, a lengthy and well prepared one, if indeed that happens.

I kind of expect said "edict" which the DoJ finds they really can't carry out except for some imagery, there will be big imagery.  Somebody might later calculated that Obama deported more per year than Trump, maybe.

Imagery, with minimal substance.

MaximumSam

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #39103 on: November 08, 2024, 11:14:45 AM »
Sounds to me like a court case, a lengthy and well prepared one, if indeed that happens.

I kind of expect said "edict" which the DoJ finds they really can't carry out except for some imagery, there will be big imagery.  Somebody might later calculated that Obama deported more per year than Trump, maybe.

Imagery, with minimal substance.
Doubtful. While there have been some immigration court cases coming, there isn't much jurisdiction for courts to stop the executive branch on immigration matters.

GopherRock

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #39104 on: November 08, 2024, 11:32:47 AM »
I've had to tell a couple of my friends to get a grip.  I had to do the same thing 4 years ago.  No, Trump isn't going to drive the US into the ground and ruin the entire world.  He's not going to do that any more than Biden has over the past 3+ years.

The histrionics would be laughable if they weren't so damn pathetic.
Please tell me where the guardrails are. I've spent the last two days searching for either guardrails or silver linings, and I'd love to see some.

Right now the only one I see is Trump's mush brain and long history of failure. That is not reassuring.

I'm worried about the sycophants and yes-men that will be leadership in his administration and in a Republican Congress. Unlike Trump, they actually believe what they are saying. 

847badgerfan

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #39105 on: November 08, 2024, 11:48:40 AM »
Let the dust settle...
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

SFBadger96

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #39106 on: November 08, 2024, 11:54:23 AM »
He probably forgot. You're all good.
No--I intentionally excluded that guy. Forget him and his worthless eyes.

:)

jk, of course. 

SFBadger96

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #39107 on: November 08, 2024, 12:36:01 PM »
A few follow-ups because on my commute to work I could think of practically nothing else.

My son (straight, white, privileged, liberal, his girlfriend uses they/them, his older sibling is non-binary) thinks Democrats are too damn sensitive. Stop with the PC culture already. Lecturing people isn't going to bring them over to "our" side.

Me: it's the economy stupid, per my comment several pages back; but also stop being so sensitive.

Also, anti immigrant sentiment has long been very popular as a political issue. Californians are like the inverse of the French regarding the Resistance. My liberal (I'm liberal, too, in case you hadn't noticed) friends don't know anyone who possibly could have supported Prop 187 back in the 90s (which denied all state benefits to undocumented immigrants), but it passed with flying colors (then was invalidated by the federal courts). FWIW, I voted against it, but I remember a lot of people who normally vote like me who thought it was a good idea.

There's no practical way to deport 14 million people. The government would basically need to stand up a big new agency to do it. It would be very expensive, and it would cause tons of problems with policing powers--show me your papers and all that.

That said, during the war on terror, my south Asian friends were targeted because of how they looked and their names. There's no question about it. Particularly close to ports of entry. One of my friends (home state: Arkansas) was detained for about three hours in Texas (near the border, but not crossing it) because he didn't have his passport with him (a U.S. citizen, inside the U.S., having never left the U.S.--how often do you carry your passport within our own borders?). That stuff is going to happen to people who look Latino near the border and in places where there are known concentrations of undocumented folks (like the guys hanging out in the Home Depot parking lot). It will very likely not happen to many white people (side note, when California passed Prop 187, the second largest group of undocumented people in the state was from...wait for it...Canada, but they were never part of the advertising campaign). It won't be hard for ICE to become more aggressive about detaining people within US borders, and if you've watched enough youtube, you know that ICE can be really difficult to deal with when they are suspicious of you (think about our discussion of IRS audits a while back). They can also be very aggressive in "detaining" you without "arresting" you. ICE will also undoubtedly make mistakes and deport American citizens. This has already happened, and will happen more. It won't be a huge number, but the politics of that will make ICE look ridiculous and will lead to some push back.

https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-21-487 ("Available data indicate ICE and CBP took enforcement actions against some U.S. citizens. For example, available ICE data indicate that ICE arrested 674, detained 121, and removed 70 potential U.S. citizens from fiscal year 2015 through the second quarter of fiscal year 2020 (March 2020).")

That is the government saying "potential," but we know that it happens: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2013/04/29/the-deportation-machine

But "illegal immigration" is--and always has been--a great political tool for those who wield it. (And as I've said, we do have an immigration problem; I just think it's a lot more complex than build a wall and deport 14 million people.)

Cincydawg

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #39108 on: November 08, 2024, 12:39:40 PM »
The guardrails are, I HOPE:

The courts.  If nothing else, court cases delay things a while, which can be a start.

Congress.  The House is not yet decided, though it probably is Red.  They still have cloture in the Senate on most things.  I have some, um, faith(?) some Republicans in Congress would resist some extreme situations.  I'm an optimist.

The military.  They swear to uphold the Constitution, and are not to follow illegal orders.  We still have posse comitatus.

My extreme fear is that Trump's minions will somehow circumvent this with some "Enabling Act", but I view that as unlikely.

Cincydawg

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #39109 on: November 08, 2024, 12:41:22 PM »
I might change into a flaming liberal if AHBL.

bayareabadger

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #39110 on: November 08, 2024, 01:49:52 PM »
My son (straight, white, privileged, liberal, his girlfriend uses they/them, his older sibling is non-binary) thinks Democrats are too damn sensitive. Stop with the PC culture already. Lecturing people isn't going to bring them over to "our" side.

Me: it's the economy stupid, per my comment several pages back; but also stop being so sensitive.
I'm sort of struck by the fact the left has also gotten themselves in trouble by not being sensitive enough, or at least not sensitive to the right people.

"Sensitivity" these days isn't really a matter of degree, it's a matter of who gets it and who doesn't. Almost everyone deeply into politics is pretty highly sensitive, right or left (shoot, the guy headed to the white house is highly sensitive, just about certain things). 

ELA

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #39111 on: November 08, 2024, 03:00:47 PM »
I'm sort of struck by the fact the left has also gotten themselves in trouble by not being sensitive enough, or at least not sensitive to the right people.

"Sensitivity" these days isn't really a matter of degree, it's a matter of who gets it and who doesn't. Almost everyone deeply into politics is pretty highly sensitive, right or left (shoot, the guy headed to the white house is highly sensitive, just about certain things).
I do enjoy how people who criticize "cancel culture" and "snowflakes" also won't shop at Target because a couple shirts have a rainbow, or drink Bud Light, because a trans influencer drank that beer in her TikTok or whatever

MrNubbz

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #39112 on: November 08, 2024, 03:06:19 PM »
Right now the only one I see is Trump's mush brain
Many of those "new border arrivals" are convicts shown to the yellow brick road unburdening their governments responsibility of housing them as now they have health care coverage and more.By all means fly down there and greet them and sponser some of them in your town
« Last Edit: November 08, 2024, 03:16:00 PM by MrNubbz »
"Let us endeavor so to live - that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain

bayareabadger

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #39113 on: November 08, 2024, 03:22:02 PM »
I do enjoy how people who criticize "cancel culture" and "snowflakes" also won't shop at Target because a couple shirts have a rainbow, or drink Bud Light, because a trans influencer drank that beer in her TikTok or whatever
A weird side element of that was a particular quote from that one executive that was completely taken to mean one thing and was actually talking about something mostly different.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #39114 on: November 08, 2024, 05:21:42 PM »
I do enjoy how people who criticize "cancel culture" and "snowflakes" also won't shop at Target because a couple shirts have a rainbow, or drink Bud Light, because a trans influencer drank that beer in her TikTok or whatever
I'll bite.  

You are equating two things here that are NOWHERE close to equal.  Boycots are an individual consumer saying "Hey, I'm not going to shop at your store because I don't like your politics."  Cancel culture is trying to get someone fired from their job because they said "men have penises".  In theory they are both trying to cause economic consequences but one is trying to lessen a MASSIVE firms profits by a discernable amount while the other is trying to take a person's livelihood.  

Additionally, your restatement of the Bud Light controversy is ridiculously misleading.  Nobody boycotted Bud Light because "a trans influencer drank that beer", Bud Light lost their longtime status as America's #1 beer because they got boycotted because they took a side in the debate over trans.  They put out a statement congratulating a biological man on a year of "girlness" on the one year anniversary of said biological man starting to play dress up and pretend to be a girl.  

From a business perspective I honestly don't get why businesses do this.  There is some good data showing that the vast majority of people overestimate the number of people who agree with them.  Ie, if I run a business and stay politically silent most Democrats will assume that I'm a Democrat while most Republicans will assume that I'm a Republican.  Thus, the OBVIOUS best policy for a business owner is to NOT disabuse the 1/2 or so of your customer base that is wrong of their incorrect beliefs about you.  Let them all keep thinking that you agree with them.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #39115 on: November 08, 2024, 06:25:32 PM »
So on to 2026.
So about that:

The party out of power almost always gains seats in the midterm elections.  Here are results from the last eight midterm elections:

The average gain for the party out of power is ~25 seats.  It appears that the Republicans will have a majority in the HoR for 2025-2026 and their majority will likely even be somewhat larger than it was the last two years but it will be nowhere near large enough to survive a ~25 seat hit.  Thus, I see it as basically a foregone conclusion that the Democrats will retake the HoR in the 2026 election.  

The Senate is interesting.  Part of the reason that the Democrats lost the Senate in 2024 is that it was just a VERY difficult map for them.  Senators up in 2024 were those who had been elected at the mid-term of Trump's first term so they got in at a time that was favorable for Democrats.  Consequently, it isn't surprising that some of them couldn't hold on when things were less favorable for their party.  

Additionally, in the 2024 Senate elections the Democrats had to defend 17 seats compared to only 9 seats defended by the Republicans.  Worse for them, some of the seats they had to defend were in swing states and even Republican states.  The Republicans appear to have gained four Senate seats and those were in the following states:
  • Montana:  Hasn't voted fora Democrat for President since Bill Clinton (barely) won it in 1992
  • West Virginia:  Hasn't voted for a Democrat for President since Bill Clinton won it in 1996 and WV went for Trump by almost 40 points in 2020. 
  • Ohio:  Hasn't voted for a Democrat for President since Obama.  
  • Pennsylvania:  The modern swing state, voted for Trump in his two victories and for Biden in between, hasn't voted for a losing Presidential candidate since Kerry in 2004.   
That is some REALLY tough ground for Democrats to defend.  

In 2026 it is more of a mixed bag.  Republicans have more to defend 21 seats including JD Vance's Ohio Seat compared to just 13 Democrats but, looking at the map, it mostly looks like Republicans defending in red states and Democrats defending in blue states.  Here are all 34 sorted by the margin by which the incumbent Senator's party won/(lost) the 2024 POTUS race within that state:

So of the 34, only three are in states where the incumbent Senator's party lost the 2024 POTUS election.  Those are the obvious targets for the 2026 election.  Democrats will take another shot at Susan Collins in Maine (either that or Collins will retire and it will be an open seat).  Republicans will try to defend Maine and go after Georgia and Michigan where Trump won in both 2016 and 2024.  

Beyond those three, all incumbent Senators should be running with the political winds at their backs and frankly, in most cases prohibitively so.  Ie, I just find it unlikely in the extreme that Democrats are going to pick up a Senate seat in Wyoming where Trump won by 46 points or that Republicans are going to pick up a Senate seat in Massachusetts where Harris won by 25%.  

 

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