Exactly.
That has to be bewildering to Buckeye fans. Boiler fans can't make heads or tails of it either.
There's no reason these teams should even be in the zip codes of each other most of the past two decades, and yet here we are.
I think it is a product of a lot of things, notably:
- When Purdue has had chances, they've taken advantage with some big upsets.
- Purdue's losses have generally been blowouts while their wins have usually been close. Ie, Ohio State's last three wins over Purdue include a 56-0 blowout in 2013 and a 49-0 blowout in 2010. Purdue's last three wins over Ohio State were 49-20 (a big win), 26-23 in OT, and 26-18.
- Missing each other a LOT and most of those were seasons in which tOSU would have been a HUMONGOUS favorite.
Since 2009 Purdue is 3-3 against Ohio State. That is BY FAR the best winning percentage against tOSU for any team that has played the Buckeyes at least four times in that time-frame. Next best is MSU at 3-6 and after that is PSU at 2-9.
Here is that history:
2019: DNP: tOSU went 13-1, PU went 4-8
2018: PU won in a stunning upset made even more stunning by the lopsided 49-20 final score. tOSU went 13-1, PU went 6-7.
2017: DNP: tOSU went 12-2, PU went 7-6
2016: DNP: tOSU went 11-2, PU went 3-9
2015: DNP: tOSU went 12-1, PU went 2-10
2014: DNP: tOSU went 14-1 with an NC, PU went 3-9
2013: tOSU won 56-0. tOSU went 12-2, PU went 1-11
2012: tOSU won 29-22. tOSU went 12-0, PU went 6-7
2011: PU won 26-23 in OT. tOSU went 6-7, PU went 7-6
2010: tOSU won 49-0. tOSU went 12-1, PU went 4-8
2009: PU won 26-18 in a stunning upset. tOSU went 11-2, PU went 5-7
Over the 11 years from 2009-2019 Purdue's three wins were two stunning upsets by PU teams that finished a combined 11-14 against tOSU teams that finished a combined 24-3 and one win in the only year of the last 11 when Purdue finished with a better record than Ohio State.
The small sample size is part of it. If the teams had played every year and PU pulled off two upsets and one win when they finished with a better record they would have gone 3-8 rather than 3-3. Even if PU had pulled off yet another upset they still would only be 4-7.