Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

https://www.sbnation.com/2018/7/27/17617326/overrated-teams

• LOL Michigan.

• LOL Tennessee

I'll add that even helmets that have performed well are almost never going to be "underrated".  Looking at the link, Bama and tOSU show up as "overrated" when they have had great results the last decade. 

The issue here is that when you are generally picked to finish first or second in your division it is extremely difficult to "overperform" and impossible to overperform by more than one spot. 

Interesting comment on ND's shellacking--how much worse was ND shellacked than Alabama?

It's not that I think ND is at the same level as Alabama and Clemson--it isn't, but one whupping by Clemson doesn't set ND apart from anyone as a pretender, including Alabama.

13. Penn State Nittany Lions

#3 in Big Ten

Time to see what you’ve got James.  James Franklin’s seat was already hot after just two seasons, when Joe Moorhead and Trace McSorley showed up in his life.  Five years in, when he’s had those two guys, he’s gone 22-5, including 16-3 against Big Ten teams, with a Big Ten title, and a 2nd place divisional finish.  The three years without both of them?  23-16 overall, 12-13 in the conference, with 6th, 4th and 3rd place divisional finishes.  Now, for the first time since 2015 he has neither of them.  The recruiting has been very good, but the attrition this offseason has also been unparalleled.  While they didn’t have the splash name that got all the attention, the Nittany Lions lost 11 players through the transfer portal, and another three early to the NFL Draft.  So why #13?  You have to start with the defense, which greatly overachieved last year, and is set up for a really big 2019 with 5 returning all-conference players, at least one at every level.  They lost 9 starters from 2017, and still wound up fourth in the Big Ten in yards per play allowed, led by arguably the conference’s best pass defense.  Penn State led the Big Ten in yards per attempt allowed, and touchdowns allowed, finishing second to Michigan in total yardage, and completion percentage.  Cornerback Amari Oruwariye is off to Sundays, but Penn State still has an All-Big Ten pair in safety Garrett Taylor and cornerback John Reid, who is now a full year removed from a knee injury that cost him all of 2017.  The Nittany Lions’ defense is built off the pass rush, and even with the early departure of Shareef Miller, Penn State is well poised to lead the Big Ten in sacks for the third consecutive season, ranking second to only Clemson a year ago in sacks per game.  Yetur Gross-Matos, who wasn’t even projected to start going into the fall, benefitted from Miller on the opposite side, and actually led the team in both sacks and tackles for loss, finishing second in the Big Ten in the later.  While the loss of Miller will allow for some increased attention, the ability of Robert Windsor to be a dominant pass rusher from the middle of the line helps even that out.  While the offense lost a lot, 56% of their production, 15th most in the FBS, it was nearly as much a year ago (49%, 26th most).  Last year it was McSorley and a lot of nothing returning.  This year, quarterback is a question mark, but the offense around that spot looks more settled.  It was expected to be a Tommy Stevens-Sean Clifford battle for the quarterback job through the spring and fall, but after having his weird special plays in the playbook under McSorley, it seems like Stevens wanted a guarantee.  He had a nagging injury in the spring, Clifford was impressive, so without a guarantee, Stevens left.  Clifford saw action in four games last year, and while 7 pass attempts is nothing to judge off of, he was 5-7 for 195 yards and a pair of touchdowns.  Ricky Slade’s usage was very perplexing last year.  While he seems to now be the clear starter, it’s unclear why he didn’t get more touches last year.  He had some fumble issues, but not enough to give a guy who averaged nearly 6 yards per carry on 25 carries, with 4 touchdowns, in September, 20 carries for the rest of the season.  11 of which came against Maryland.  In KJ Hamler, Penn State has a star receiver in the making.  He led the Big Ten in yards per catch among qualified players, with 18.0, but he needs to be getting more than 3.2 catches per game.  If Justin Shorter, who came in last year as a 5* true freshman, but struggled to prove worthy of burning his redshirt, can live up to his billing, they, along with All-Big Ten tight end Pat Friermuth, should give Clifford plenty of options to work with.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	K.J. Hamler, Sophomore
TE	Pat Friermuth, Sophomore
G	Steven Gonzalez, Senior
	.
DE	Yetur Gross-Matos, Junior
CB	John Reid, Senior
S	Garrett Taylor, Senior

12. Utah Utes

#1 in Pac 12

After a rocky transition to the Power 5, failing to post a winning conference record in their first three Pac 12 seasons, Utah has turned it around to validate their inclusion.  A year after reaching their first Pac 12 Championship Game, the Utes look primed to win their first Pac 12 title.  Just like 2018, 2019 will be led by the defensive side of the ball.  The Utes had 10 of their 11 defensive starters named to the All-Pac 12 team last year, and six, including three first teamers, return.  Just how great Utah was against the run, after only returning one player from the front seven, was a big surprise.  They moved Chase Hansen from safety to linebacker, just to get a talented body up there.  The result was a front that ranked #11 in Run Defense S&P+, and #6 in ypc allowed.  They weren’t just strong against the run, but also had the second highest sack rate in the Pac 12.  It seems unlikely to drop off too much, considering the line talent they are bringing back, most surprising being senior defensive end Bradlee Anae, who has led the team in sacks each of the past two seasons, and was expected to go pro, but opted to return for his senior season.  What should put this team over the top is an offense that is flush with skill position experience.  A full strength Utah offense may be looking to defend a Pac 12 title, not win their first.  The Utes played without starting quarterback Tyler Hundley or running back Zack Moss, and still only lost 10-3, with Washington’s lone touchdown coming courtesy of their defense.  If Utah was within a touchdown of a Pac 12 title with a banged up offense that generated just 3.6 ypp, 12 first downs, and 21:28 time of possession, their full strength offense should be enough.  The only question is the offensive line, which graduated three seniors, being their three all-conference performers on the line.  The line was very good last year when the Utes stayed on schedule, #27 in standard down line yards and #23 in opportunity rate.  It’s once they got off schedule, that things got dicey, #105 in passing down line yards, and low across the board in sack rate.  Keeping Tyler Huntley upright this year is of paramount concern.  They have to improve on their 7.58% sack rate.  Andy Ludwig, who was offensive coordinator under Whittingham at Utah from 2005-2008, returns to that role, after bouncing around a bit, most recently spending the last four years at Vanderbilt.  His task is to get Huntley to get the ball out quicker.  Both because this is a run first offense, that can’t afford sacks, and because Huntley has proven injury prone, missing four games in 2017, and six last year.  The dropoff at running back was perhaps even more stark once Zack Moss went down.  Armand Shyne, who played in every game, and started five, averaged 1.8 ypc less than Moss.  I said this when I had Michigan State so high last year, that I liked their starters as much as anyone, but they could less afford injuries than anyone ranked in the same vicinity.  This year that team is Utah.  Their starting 22 is good enough to get them into the Playoff, but any sort of injuries would unravel them quicker than any other top 20 team.  On special teams, Utah has had a run of elite kickers and punters, winning a Lou Groza and three Ray Guy Awards since 2014, so they have a solid pipeline, but having to replace both their kicker and punter is always a scary task.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Tyler Huntley, Senior
RB	Zack Moss, Senior
WR	Britain Covey, Junior
	.
DE	Bradlee Anae, Senior
DT	Leki Fotu, Senior
CB	Jaylon Johnson, Junior

and Cincy was right

the Utes are off the board!!!

Pac 12 was the first P5 eliminated, and was outlasted by the G5. Excluded entirely from the top 10.

11. Oklahoma Sooners

#1 in Big XII

Not many picked Oklahoma to return to the College Football Playoff after the loss of Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield.  Turns out they had another Heisman Trophy winner sitting on their bench, and the offense actually scored more point without Mayfield.  For the Sooners to reach their fourth College Football Playoff in five years, they may need a similar performance, from albeit a much more known commodity.  Rather than put it on the shoulders of junior Austin Kendall, Lincoln Riley went out and got Jalen Hurts as a grad transfer from Alabama.  As opposed to a walk on transfer in Mayfield, or a baseball-first backup in Murray, Hurts is a much more known commodity.  But that also means we know his ceiling, and remember him getting benched in a National Championship Game, while his backup led the Crimson Tide to a comeback win.  The offense may look slightly different this year.  The Sooners’ pass attempts per game dropped by about 2 going from Mayfield to Murray, and even that number is well above where anyone should be comfortable with Hurts.  But just how good Oklahoma is at running the ball gets overlooked.  The Sooners led the nation in rushing yards per attempt and S&P+ Run Offense, and yes, Kyler Murray’s 1,000 rushing yards on 7.2 ypc helped, but that was the second consecutive year S&P+ rated the Oklahoma ground game tops.  Rodney Anderson, who missed all but two games last season, left early for the NFL, but both Kennedy Brooks and Trey Sermon return, after combining for 2,003 yards on 7.1 ypc, with 25 rushing touchdowns a season ago.  The backfield is loaded.  The pass catching options are more limited with Marquise Brown leaving early and Carson Meier and Myles Tease graduating.  CeeDee Lamb is proven, and Grant Calcaterra at tight end is very good.  Beyond that, it’s a lot of question marks.  Lee Morris is a reliable 5th year senior, but he sort of is what he is, albeit that might be the only other experienced option.  Sophomore Charleston Rambo, who had a good game in the Sugar Bowl loss, is the most intriguing option, but four of Oklahoma’s five highest rated recruits included the #1, #3 and #11 receivers, and the #3 tight end.  All four enrolled early, and all four have a chance to contribute immediately.  Aside from the fact that Hurts isn’t going to threaten over the top as much as Murray did, the other reason all that skill position talent may find less operating room is the offensive line, which has rated #4 and #2 in the country in average line yards each of the past two seasons.  Now they have to figure out how to replace two graduates and two early NFL Draft entries, the four of which missed a combined ONE GAME last year.  For now it seems like they could be starting four sophomores and a junior, with the only real experience coming from center Creed Humphrey.  The problem is that there is little room for error on that side of the ball, because as great as the offense has been, it’s had to be, because the defense has been equally bad.  Mike Stoops was fired midway through the season as defensive coordinator, with Ruffin McNeal promoted, to no avail.  Now they’ve brought in Alex Grinch, who served one year at Ohio State, after doing the impossible and giving Mike Leach a great defense in Pullman.  The task will be similar here as the Sooners ranked dead last in the Big XII in scoring defense (33.3 ppg), total defense (453.8 ypg on 6.1 ypp), and pass defense (294 ypg on 8.4 ypa with a 64.5% opponents completion percentage).  Teams with defense that bad aren’t supposed to compete for championships.  The teams around them in yards allowed were teams like Rice and East Carolina.  While I don’t think Oklahoma is going to be a 3-9 AAC team or a 2-11 Conference USA team anytime soon, it does show how unlikely going 12-2 with a Big XII title and a Playoff appearance with a defense that awful is.  The offense basically has to be easily the best in the country, with a Heisman winner playing the most important position.  I don’t think Oklahoma can pull that off three years in a row.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Kennedy Brooks, Sophomore
WR	CeeDee Lamb, Junior
TE	Grant Calcaterra, Junior
	.
NT	Neville Gallimore, Senior
LB	Kenneth Murray, Junior
CB	Tre Brown, Junior