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Topic: ELA 2019 Countdown

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ELA

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ELA 2019 Countdown
« on: January 19, 2019, 03:56:30 PM »
130. UTEP Miners
#14 in Conference USA
Last year in my UTEP write up, I mentioned how usually the bottom of this list included massive shuffling, as the teams that went for it with a lot of seniors, and were bad, but not terrible, fall to the bottom, while some teams go young, are horrible, but project better going forward.  I then noted that UTEP was the rare exception that finished at the bottom of the Massey composite rankings in 2017, but I was keeping them there in 2019*.  The asterisk is because technically they were #129 of 129 returning FBS programs, but I slid FBS newcomer Liberty in below them by default.  The Miners did not disappoint, going 1-11, and finishing again dead last in the Massey composite rankings.  Now, I can truly say this has never happened, but I still see no reason to move them up.  They are cemented right now as the worst program in the FBS, and don’t seem particularly committed to any youth movement.  In 2017 it made some sense, Sean Kugler, in Year 5, was clearly on the hot seat, and needed to keep his job.  Why Dana Dimel didn’t last year is anyone’s guess.  He did make a change at quarterback, going with JUCO transfer Kai Locksley, a one time Texas Longhorn, and son of new Maryland head coach Mike Locksley.  But to show you where his confidence level in him is, he tried to bring in Alex Delton from Kansas State as a grad transfer, who played under Dimel there.  Delton committed to the Miners, then changed his mind and went to TCU.  That shouldn’t be awkward or anything for the coach-quarterback relationship to know he tried to replace you, had your replacement, then it fell through.  The bigger issue is a defense that was stocked with seniors a year ago and still finished 3rd worst in Conference USA, allowing 32.8 ppg.  The four leading tacklers are all gone.  Nobody who received any postseason honors returns.  The hope is that the turnover margin has to swing at least a little bit, their -17 turnover differential was tied with Connecticut for worst in the nation.  Usually that corrects itself somewhat.  That’s probably the best bet for UTEP to rise up, after a combined 1-23 record over the past two seasons.
KEY PLAYERS
QB Kai Locksley, Senior
RB Quardraiz Wadley, Senior
G Bobby DeHaro, Sophomore
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LB Sione Tupou, Sophomore
CB Justin Rogers, Senior
P Mitchell Crawford, Senior

129. Old Dominion Monarchs
#13 in Conference USA
Where did it go wrong for the Monarchs?  The program relaunched in 2009 after a nearly 70 period, and by Year 3 they were a top 10 FCS team, reaching the FCS Elite 8 in their fourth year, their final year in that division.  By 2016, their third year in Conference USA, they were 10-3, co-division champs, and played in a bowl game.  It seemed like a program that was going to firmly entrench itself in the upper echelon of the conference.  Since then they’ve had back to back losing campaigns, and have lost 7 of their last 9 conference games.  Somehow they managed to go 4-8 last year, in a year where they beat Virginia Tech.  Not that the Hokies were their usual selves last year, but this was an Old Dominion team that was 0-3 at the time, and had opened the season with a 42 point loss to Liberty...who was playing their first ever game as an FBS team.  4-8 was with a roster that returned 15 starters, and started 13 seniors.  So where does it go from here?  Well the quarterback position looks set, with the return of senior all-conference player Blake LaRussa.  Except not, as he has decided to retire from football to enter the seminary.  The only position of certainty entering 2019, is now perhaps the biggest hole on the roster.  It means Old Dominion likely turns back to Steven Williams, who started for the program in 2017, and the beginning of 2018, before the job was handed over to LaRussa.  They did also add former Michigan State quarterback Messiah deWeaver, by way of JUCO.  Old Dominion can’t afford much of a slip on offense with the defense they’ve fielded.  They lose 8 starters from a unit that gave up a conference worst 471.4 ypg, particularly awful against the run, where they allowed 216.4 ypg on 5.2 ypc, both also league worsts.  Just to make things tougher, the Monarchs have road games at both Virginia and Virginia Tech in September, and in conference play all four of UAB, Middle Tennessee, Marshall and FIU, the top four teams from 2018, and all on the road.

KEY PLAYERS
RB Kesean Strong, Senior
T Isaac Weaver, Junior
G Tony Barnett, Senior
.
LB Lawrence Garner, Junior
LB Jordan Young, Junior
CB Geronda Hall, Sophomore

ELA

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #1 on: January 20, 2019, 02:05:14 PM »
128. Massachusetts Minutemen
Independent
If UMass was going to finally break through and make their first bowl game since their elevation to FBS, last year seemed like as good a shot as any, with an offense that appeared to be loaded.  They had Andrew Ford returning under center after throwing for nearly 3,000 yards with 22 touchdowns to 4 interceptions; a Biletnikoff candidate at wideout in Andy Isabella, coming off a 1,000 yard season; and Marquis Young toting the rock after nearly having 1,000 yards himself, finishing up 2017 by going over 100 yards in four of their final 6 games, while the Minutemen won 4 of their final 6 after an 0-6 start.  At the helm was Mark Whipple who had only added NFL Offensive coordinator experience since his first go round at the school, which led to a 1-AA National Championship in 1998.    Instead it just never worked.  The offense was good, but not great, and the defense, which gave up 55 or more points in HALF of their games was abysmal.  Isabella was still an All-American and a Biletnikoff finalist, but Ford got hurt in the seventh game, and Young was a shell of the 2017 version.  All three were seniors, they are gone, as is Mark Whipple, who was fired after a 16-44 second go round at the school, never winning more than 4 games.  The school stuck with the offensive side of the ball and hired Florida State offensive coordinator Walt Bell, a very curious hire.  He’s only 34, and was viewed as a fast riser, but his offenses at Maryland stagnated in his two years there, and in his one season at Florida State, the Seminoles finished in the bottom 20 in the FBS in total offense.  There is some question as to how much of that was him, when Willie Taggart retained play calling duties for most of the season, but the bloom is certainly off the rose compared to three years ago when Maryland hired him.  If he is going to finally get the program into a bowl game, they’ll have to do work up front against a very manageable September and October schedule, before finishing against Army, Northwestern and BYU.  As for that defense, which graduates 6 seniors from a unit that gave up the fourth most points in the FBS, and was #125 in S&P+, it falls on Aazaar Abdul-Rahim, who has spent two years as defensive backs coach at Maryland, his only two years of actual coaching experience.  Bell, a guy known as a recruiter, still seems like a very weird hire for a school that isn’t going to recruit well, no matter who is there.  I’m guessing we still have the Minutemen somewhere around here in three years when he’s fired.
KEY PLAYERS
WRSadiq Palmer, Junior
TRay Thomas-Ishman, Senior
CDerek Dumais, Senior
.
DEJake Byczko, Junior
LBChinedu Ogbonna, Junior
CBIsaiah Rodgers, Senior

ELA

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #2 on: January 21, 2019, 03:48:17 PM »
127. Charlotte 49ers
#12 in Conference USA
The 49ers jumped from 1-11 to 5-7, which was their best season in their 4 year FBS history.  But it wasn’t enough to save Brad Lambert’s job.  I think Lambert knew the deal.  He threw in the towel on 2017, to go all in on 2018, returning 18 starters, including 10 on defense.  When you go all in on a two year plan for a job saving season, and peak at 5-7, usually your school moves on.  The school brings in Will Healy, from FCS Austin Peay, which is an under the radar hire that I really like.  He made Austin Peay decent, something the Governors never have been.  This is a program that has never qualified for the FCS playoffs, and last won a conference title in 1977, their previous one was in 1948 as an NAIA school.  Long term, he needs to find a way to balance the offense.  Short term, he might as well just continue running Benny LeMay into the ground.  LeMay ran for 1,243 yards last year, on a respectable 5.4 ypc, but the team as a whole, just continued running to very little effect whether or not he got the carry.  The 49ers ran the ball 3rd most in Conference USA, at 44 times per clip.  Problem was LeMay kept that strategy barely effective.  When anyone else carried the ball, Charlotte averaged just 2.4 yards per carry, yet had 294 such attempts.  Considering that was the strategy with a pair of senior quarterbacks at the top of the depth chart, it’s probably not going to change a ton this year.  They were a middle of the pack defense, but there is so much experience there, that they have to finish near the top of the conference for any hope of a bowl.  It’s not just the 7 returning starters, it’s that 6 of the 7 will be three or four year starters.  If that kind of experience can’t produce better, then it’s clear the recruiting just wasn’t there at a school that should be fairly easy to recruit to, by Conference USA standards.  The main problem was that they allowed the third most passing yards per attempt, and had the third worst opponents passing efficiency.  But when you also have the conference’s second lowest sack rate, it’s tough to pin exactly where the problem is.
KEY PLAYERS
RBBenny LeMay, Senior
WRVictor Tucker, Sophomore
KJonathan Cruz, Sophomore
.
DEAlex Highsmith, Senior
DETyriq Harris, Senior
SBen DeLuca, Senior

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #3 on: January 21, 2019, 04:16:44 PM »
Wow. UTep is in a worse spot than a bunch of unsuccessful FCS move ups. That must suck.
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

847badgerfan

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #4 on: January 21, 2019, 04:25:54 PM »
How much longer does UMass even bother?
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

ELA

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #5 on: January 21, 2019, 04:30:56 PM »
How much longer does UMass even bother?
The payday games with other FBS teams must be worth it

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #6 on: January 21, 2019, 04:46:09 PM »
I am pulling for them. They are like the Idaho of the East. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #7 on: January 21, 2019, 05:14:57 PM »
Also noteworthy is 3 of the worst four are CUSA. Have they overtaken the Belt in futility? Or just marred with a particularly putrid cellar?
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

ELA

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #8 on: January 21, 2019, 06:28:11 PM »
Also noteworthy is 3 of the worst four are CUSA. Have they overtaken the Belt in futility? Or just marred with a particularly putrid cellar?
Massey composite had them as the worst conference last year

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #9 on: January 21, 2019, 06:34:40 PM »
As far as UMass, I would assume that they would be content with catching up to UConn. They had a pretty good rivalry going for about fifty years before UConn hit the realignment jackpot that catapulted them directly from 1AA to the Big East. While UConn is obviously still in much better shape than UMass Conference wise, their football prowess is trending in a downward direction. In fact they lost to UMass on the gridiron last year. At home, no less. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

ELA

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #10 on: January 22, 2019, 08:17:53 AM »
126. Colorado State Rams
#12 in Mountain West
While the Rams hadn’t been in the conference title picture since 2014, and hadn’t won one since 2002, it seemed that Mike Bobo had maintained the consistency that Jim McElwain had rebuilt after the disastrous Steve Fairchild era in Fort Collins.  Colorado State had been to five consecutive bowl games, matching what Sonny Lubick did from 1999 through 2003.  But then 2018 produced a 3-9 season, that included infighting, a quarterback controversy, and honestly some luck just to get to 3 wins.  The season opened with a home loss to Hawaii, where Colorado State trailed by as many as 30 in the third quarter, and included a 16 point home loss to FCS Illinois State.  As bad as Arkansas was, that upset win probably didn’t get enough attention, because we didn’t know just how bad Colorado State was either.  The Rams’ two other wins were over New Mexico and San Jose State, who went a combined 2-14 in Mountain West play.  Even to pick those up, Colorado State needed fourth quarter comebacks, including a final play win over New Mexico.  At least Mike Bobo made the switch from senior K.J. Carta-Samuels to then-sophomore Collin Hill in October, because with Izzy Matthews and Olasabi Johnson graduating, and Preston Williams leaving early for the NFL, the Rams faced a complete dearth of skill position players heading into 2019.  Bobo seems committed to passing the ball, and I’d expect that to continue, even without Johnson and Williams.   The Rams averaged over 300 yards per game in the air, but needed 41.8 attempts per game to do so, easily the most in the conference, and 5th most nationally.  The averaged only 7.3 ypa, 4th worst in the Mountain West, and Hill threw as many touchdowns as he did interceptions (7).  Defensively they were led by a pair of senior linebackers who combined for 232 tackles, and will be tough to replace, but it’s their quarterback pressure which was lacking, even with Josh Watson and Tre Thomas.  Ellison Hubbard looks like he can fill that role from the middle of the defensive line, but he’s inconsistent.  If he gets going early, he’ll be a pain all afternoon long, but too often when he didn’t make a splash early, he totally disappeared.  The Rams ranked last in the Mountain West in defensive pass efficiency and second to last in sack rate.  The starting line was 3/4 freshmen and sophomores last year, so the hope has to be more pressure up front, to ease some on the back.  Rising sophomore cornerback Rashad Ajayi looks like a guy who will merit being on a Key Players list by the end of the season.
KEY PLAYERS
QBCollin Hill, Junior
WRWarren Jackson, Junior
TECameron Butler, Junior
.
DTEllison Hubbard, Junior
SJamal Hicks, Senior
PRyan Stonehouse, Junior

MrNubbz

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #11 on: January 22, 2019, 08:30:21 AM »
ELA - this is grid iron junkie gold.Damn a lot of lots of numbers and factoids - thanx for digging
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

rolltidefan

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #12 on: January 22, 2019, 12:03:21 PM »
starting early this year it seems.

ELA

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #13 on: January 22, 2019, 12:16:48 PM »
starting early this year it seems.
Back closer to the old time line, which was to finish before the mags started coming out

 

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