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Topic: ELA 2019 Countdown

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #420 on: May 17, 2019, 10:51:27 AM »
Using @ELA 's rankings as a preliminary method of ranking B1G teams, here is a table of which teams each B1G team hosts, visits, and misses:
Rank   .   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   .   Rank
.   Team   tOSU   M   PSU   Iowa   UW   NU   MSU   MN   PU   UNL   IU   UMD   ILL   RU   Team   .
1   tOSU   n/a   11/30, H   11/23, A   miss   10/26, A   10/18, H   10/5, A   miss   miss   9/28, H   9/14, H   11/9, A   miss   11/16, H   tOSU   1
2   M   11/30, A   n/a   10/19, H   10/5, A   9/21, H   miss   11/16, A   miss   miss   miss   11/23, H   11/2, H   10/12, H   9/28, A   UW   2
3   PSU   11/23, H   10/19, A   n/a   10/12, H   miss   miss   10/26, H   11/9, H   10/5, A   miss   11/16, A   9/27, H   miss   11/30, A   PSU   3
4   Iowa   miss   10/5, H   10/12, A   n/a   11/9, H   10/26, H   miss   11/16, A   10/19, A   11/29, H   miss   miss   11/23, A   9/7, A   MSU   4
5   UW   10/26, H   9/21, A   miss   11/9, A   n/a   9/28, A   10/12, A   11/30, H   11/23, A   11/16, H   miss   miss   10/19, H   miss   M   5
6   NU   10/18, A   miss   miss   10/26, A   9/28, H   n/a   9/21, A   11/23, A   11/9, A   10/5, H   11/2, H   miss   11/30, H   miss   Iowa   6
7   MSU   10/5, H   11/16, H   10/26, A   miss   10/12, H   9/21, H   n/a   miss   miss   miss   9/28, A   11/30, A   11/9, A   11/23, H   NU   7
8   MN   miss   miss   11/9, A   11/16, H   11/30, A   11/23, H   miss   n/a   9/28, H   10/12, A   miss   10/26, A   10/5, A   10/19, H   PU   8
9   PU   miss   miss   10/5, H   10/19, H   11/23, H   11/9, H   miss   9/28, A   n/a   11/2, A   11/30, A   10/12, A   10/26, A   miss   UNL   9
10   UNL   9/28, A   miss   miss   11/29, A   11/16, A   10/5, A   miss   10/12, H   11/2, H   n/a   10/26, A   11/23, H   9/21, H   miss   MD   10
11   IU   9/14, A   11/23, A   11/16, H   miss   miss   11/2, A   9/28, H   miss   11/30, H   10/26, H   n/a   10/19, H   miss   10/12, A   IU   11
12   UMD   11/9, H   11/2, A   9/27, A   miss   miss   miss   11/30, H   10/26, H   10/12, H   11/23, A   10/19, A   n/a   miss   10/5, H   MN   12
13   ILL   miss   10/12, A   miss   11/23, H   10/19, A   11/30, A   11/9, H   10/5, H   10/26, H   9/21, A   miss   miss   n/a   11/2, A   ILL   13
14   RU   11/16, A   9/28, H   11/30, H   9/7, H   miss   miss   11/23, A   10/19, A   miss   miss   10/12, H   10/5, A   11/2, H   n/a   RU   14
.   Team   tOSU   UW   PSU   MSU   M   Iowa   NU   PU   UNL   MD   IU   MN   ILL   RU   Team   .
Rank   .   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   .   Rank


medinabuckeye1

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #421 on: May 17, 2019, 11:01:01 AM »
Yikes, that didn't format right at all.  I'll do them by groups of two and discuss those two then move to the next two:  First is #1 tOSU and #2 M:
Rank   .   1   2
.   Team   tOSU   M
1   tOSU   n/a   11/30, H
2   M   11/30, A   n/a
3   PSU   11/23, H   10/19, A
4   Iowa   miss   10/5, H
5   UW   10/26, H   9/21, A
6   NU   10/18, A   miss
7   MSU   10/5, H   11/16, H
8   MN   miss   miss
9   PU   miss   miss
10   UNL   9/28, A   miss
11   IU   9/14, A   11/23, A
12   UMD   11/9, H   11/2, A
13   ILL   miss   10/12, A
14   RU   11/16, A   9/28, H
.   Team   tOSU   UW
Rank   .   1   2

Ohio State:  The Buckeyes have the misfortune of having to play the next best team on the road.  That substantially reduces Ohio State's CCG chances but there are still several ways to overcome that.  First, Ohio State hasn't lost to Michigan since the Luke Fickell year so we can't completely discount the chances that the Buckeyes will simply win in Ann Arbor.  Second, Michigan has two challenging road games (@UW in September and @PSU in October).  If the Wolverines lose those then Ohio State would clinch a berth prior to THE GAME if they can get there at 8-0. 

Aside from playing Michigan on the road, Ohio State's schedule looks remarkably favorable.  They get their next two and three of their next four best opponents at home (PSU, UW, MSU) leaving only the Northwestern game as a difficult road trip.  If the Buckeyes are anywhere close to their lofty ranking in ELA's list, then 7-2 should be an absolute floor with a loss in Ann Arbor and either a loss in Evanston or an upset. 

Michigan:  The favorability or unfavorability of the Wolverines schedule is, IMHO, TBD.  Assuming that ELA's rankings hold there is still the question of gaps.  What I mean is that if Michigan is near-equal to tOSU and much better than PSU and UW then their schedule is great.  They should beat tOSU due to HFA and win the road games against PSU and UW because they are better.  Alternatively, if tOSU is much better than Michigan and the Wolverines are near-equal to PSU and UW then their schedule sucks because they'll likely lose at home to tOSU AND lose the road games against PSU and UW. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #422 on: May 17, 2019, 11:13:10 AM »
Next is #3 PSU and #4 Iowa:
Rank   .   3   4
.   Team   PSU   Iowa
1   tOSU   11/23, A   miss
2   M   10/19, H   10/5, A
3   PSU   n/a   10/12, H
4   Iowa   10/12, A   n/a
5   UW   miss   11/9, A
6   NU   miss   10/26, A
7   MSU   10/26, A   miss
8   MN   11/9, A   11/16, H
9   PU   10/5, H   10/19, H
10   UNL   miss   11/29, A
11   IU   11/16, H   miss
12   UMD   9/27, A   miss
13   ILL   miss   11/23, H
14   RU   11/30, H   9/7, H
.   Team   PSU   MSU
Rank   .   3   4

Penn State:  The keys for the Nittany Lions, IMHO are whether or not they can win the home game against Michigan and the road game against Iowa.  If they win both they should finish 8-1 and at least tied for the B1G-E.  If they lose both then it is hard to see them finishing above 6-3.  PSU's recent history with Iowa has been entertaining to say the least.  PSU has won five straight dating back to 2011 but the last two wins were a six point win at home and a two point win on the road.  PSU's recent history with Michigan hasn't been exciting at all.  The home team has won the last three meetings by 35, 29, and 39 points. 

Iowa:  There are no two ways around it, the Hawkeyes have a very unfavorable schedule.  They visit the next two best teams in the B1G-W (UW and NU) and they also play two of the best three teams from the other division with one of those being on the road.  They could still win the B1G-W though because, IMHO, none of the B1G-W teams have the team and schedule combination necessary to run the table.  If I am right, then the key for Iowa is to minimize the damage from their tough games.  They can't seriously contend for the B1G-W if they go 0-4 against M, PSU, UW and NU but they might get to Indianapolis if they go 2-2 against that group particularly if the losses are to the B1G-E schools. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #423 on: May 17, 2019, 11:18:10 AM »
Next are #5 UW and #6 NU:
Rank   .   5   6
.   Team   UW   NU
1   tOSU   10/26, A   10/18, H
2   M   9/21, H   miss
3   PSU   miss   miss
4   Iowa   11/9, H   10/26, H
5   UW   n/a   9/28, A
6   NU   9/28, H   n/a
7   MSU   10/12, H   9/21, H
8   MN   11/30, A   11/23, H
9   PU   11/23, H   11/9, H
10   UNL   11/16, A   10/5, A
11   IU   miss   11/2, A
12   UMD   miss   miss
13   ILL   10/19, A   11/30, A
14   RU   miss   miss
.   Team   M   Iowa
Rank   .   5   6

Wisconsin:  The Badgers have a tough road game in Columbus but after that their next four best opponents all have to visit Madison.  If they sweep the home games against M, IA, NU, and MSU then they'll be hard to keep out of Indianapolis. 

Northwestern:  The major advantage that the Wildcats have in the B1G-W race is that they only have to play one of the top-3 teams in the B1G-E.  Both of the better B1G-W teams have to play two.  The Wildcats get Iowa at home and Wisconsin on the road and if they can split those games they should be a factor in the B1G-W. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #424 on: May 17, 2019, 11:22:58 AM »
Next is #7 MSU and #8 MN:
Rank   .   7   8
.   Team   MSU   MN
1   tOSU   10/5, A   miss
2   M   11/16, A   miss
3   PSU   10/26, H   11/9, H
4   Iowa   miss   11/16, A
5   UW   10/12, A   11/30, H
6   NU   9/21, A   11/23, A
7   MSU   n/a   miss
8   MN   miss   n/a
9   PU   miss   9/28, A
10   UNL   miss   10/12, H
11   IU   9/28, H   miss
12   UMD   11/30, H   10/26, H
13   ILL   11/9, H   10/5, H
14   RU   11/23, A   10/19, A
.   Team   NU   PU
Rank   .   7   8

Michigan State:  The Spartans schedule is just brutal.  Per ELA's list there are only six B1G teams better than MSU but the Spartans have to play four of them on the road.  Road trips to Columbus, Ann Arbor, Madison, and Evanston make me feel like the ceiling for the Spartans this year is maybe 6-3 and even that would require multiple upsets. 

Minnesota:  Like the Wildcats, the Gophers only play one of the top-3 teams from the B1G-E.  That is the good news.  After that it is a mixed bag.  Their four best opponents are two home games (PSU, UW) and two road games (IA, NU).  My supposition is that the Gophers can't be a B1G-W contender unless they can split those four. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #425 on: May 17, 2019, 11:28:17 AM »
Next are #9 PU and #10 UNL:
Rank   .   9   10
.   Team   PU   UNL
1   tOSU   miss   9/28, H
2   M   miss   miss
3   PSU   10/5, A   miss
4   Iowa   10/19, A   11/29, H
5   UW   11/23, A   11/16, H
6   NU   11/9, A   10/5, H
7   MSU   miss   miss
8   MN   9/28, H   10/12, A
9   PU   n/a   11/2, A
10   UNL   11/2, H   n/a
11   IU   11/30, H   10/26, H
12   UMD   10/12, H   11/23, A
13   ILL   10/26, H   9/21, A
14   RU   miss   miss
.   Team   UNL   MD
Rank   .   9   10

Purdue:  The Boilermakers have a schedule that is GREAT if they are struggling for bowl eligibility but TERRIBLE if they are good enough to be a CCG contender.  Their four best opponents are on the road (PSU, IA, UW, NU) and their four worst opponents are at home (MN, UNL, IU, UMD, IL).  That makes 5-4 feel like a safe projection and anything outside of 6-3 to 3-6 seem highly unlikely. 

Nebraska:  The Cornhuskers schedule is almost exactly the inverse of Purdue's.  It is GREAT if they are a CCG contender and TERRIBLE if they are struggling for bowl eligibility.  Nebraska's best four opponents visit Lincoln (tOSU, IA, UW, NU) while they play four of their five worst opponents on the road (MN, PU, UMD, IL).  IMHO, this makes predicting Nebraska's record a complete crapshoot. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #426 on: May 17, 2019, 11:32:00 AM »
Next are #11 IU and #12 UMD:
Rank   .   11   12
.   Team   IU   UMD
1   tOSU   9/14, H   11/9, A
2   M   11/23, H   11/2, H
3   PSU   11/16, A   9/27, H
4   Iowa   miss   miss
5   UW   miss   miss
6   NU   11/2, H   miss
7   MSU   9/28, A   11/30, A
8   MN   miss   10/26, A
9   PU   11/30, A   10/12, A
10   UNL   10/26, A   11/23, H
11   IU   n/a   10/19, H
12   UMD   10/19, A   n/a
13   ILL   miss   miss
14   RU   10/12, H   10/5, A
.   Team   IU   MN
Rank   .   11   12

Indiana:  The Hoosiers, IMHO, have a very unfavorable schedule because the teams ranked closest to them are all on the road (#9 PU, #10 UNL, #12 UMD) while most of their home games are against teams so much better than them that HFA is unlikely to matter (#1 tOSU, #2 M, #6 NU).  I see this schedule as a disaster for Indiana. 

Maryland:  The Terps, IMHO, have a favorable schedule because they host the two teams ranked immediately ahead of them in the rankings and have at least a 50/50 chance of winning at #14 Rutgers so 3-6 is not unlikely.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #427 on: May 17, 2019, 11:35:05 AM »
Last are #13 IL and #14 RU:
Rank   .   13   14   .   Rank
.   Team   ILL   RU   Team   .
1   tOSU   miss   11/16, H   tOSU   1
2   M   10/12, H   9/28, A   UW   2
3   PSU   miss   11/30, A   PSU   3
4   Iowa   11/23, A   9/7, A   MSU   4
5   UW   10/19, H   miss   M   5
6   NU   11/30, H   miss   Iowa   6
7   MSU   11/9, A   11/23, H   NU   7
8   MN   10/5, A   10/19, H   PU   8
9   PU   10/26, A   miss   UNL   9
10   UNL   9/21, H   miss   MD   10
11   IU   miss   10/12, A   IU   11
12   UMD   miss   10/5, H   MN   12
13   ILL   n/a   11/2, A   ILL   13
14   RU   11/2, H   n/a   RU   14
.   Team   ILL   RU   Team   .
Rank   .   13   14   .   Rank

Illinois:  For these two teams probably the only thing that matters in terms of HFA is which team hosts the game between them and that team is Illinois.  That should prevent the Illini from going winless in B1G play! 

Rutgers:  The Scarlet Knights best chance for a B1G win is their October 5 home game against #12 Maryland.  If they can't win that then they'll likely have to pull an upset in either Champaign or Bloomington to avoid a goose egg. 

EastAthens

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #428 on: June 10, 2019, 06:25:16 PM »
ELA, I love how much work you do on this. I could not disagree more on UGA this year.  I believe Georgia has both the best offensive line in the country and also the best back 7. This is the best Dawg team of my lifetime and I am 60 years old. I have been saying for a couple of years that this is the year UGA is as strong as Bama throughout the roster and I still believe that.  Go Dawgs and kicking Clemson's ass is not out of the question.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2019, 06:54:18 AM by EastAthens »

Cincydawg

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #429 on: June 11, 2019, 04:13:34 AM »
I would say this is the most capable UGA team I've ever seen on a talent basis.  But being ranked 6th is not inconsistent with that, maybe five teams are better, it's opinion of course.  With Fromm back and Swift back and the OL, the offense should be potent, and the defense usually can fill holes pretty well.  I'm excited for the season, as are we all I suppose, and have expectations, but I still fear those quirky losses where they don't seem to show up for some reason.

I look forward to seeing more of Herrien at RB.  He's always looked good to me but has been stuck behind the others.  And I'd like to see if "Zeus" is recovered from two ACL surgeries in two years.

ELA

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Re: ELA 2019 Countdown
« Reply #430 on: June 11, 2019, 08:19:52 AM »
ELA, I love how much work you do on this. I could not disagree more on UGA this year.  I believe Georgia has both the best offensive line in the country and also the best back 7. This is the best Dawg team of my lifetime and I am 60 years old. I have been saying for a couple of years that this is the year UGA is as strong as Bama throughout the roster and I still believe that.  Go Dawgs and kicking Clemson's ass is not out of the question.
I think maybe you misread it?  I am fully on board with their back seven, it's the defensive line and receivers that cause me some concern.  I'm not sure I'd go as far as you in the overall OL praise, but I do think they have the best lineman in the country.

 

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