Tuesday and Wednesday
| 78. Ole Miss Rebels |
| #13 in SEC |
All things considered, a 5-2 start, with seemingly decent wins over Texas Tech on a neutral field, and at Arkansas, with forgivable losses to Alabama and LSU (even by a combined 84 points), seemed like a decent start for a program to finish in the conference basement. Then the bottom fell out with a 5 game losing streak to close the season, including their second consecutive home Egg Bowl loss of over 30 points. Fortunately the Rebels were incredibly young on one side of the ball, unfortunately that side was the defense, which finished #90 in S&P+, and wasted the 6th rated offense. No Power 5 team had as lopsided a difference, in favor of the offense. While Ole Miss was breaking in seven new starters, and starting nine underclassmen, this is two years of Matt Luke, and two years of fielding the worst defense in the SEC. The problem is next year he doesn’t look to have the offense to bail it out. Ole Miss was already preparing to have a massive offensive overhaul, with Jordan Ta’amu, who flew way too far under the radar, because of how bad Ole Miss has been. But then they lost four offensive players early to the NFL Draft, including a dynamic pair of receivers in A.J. Brown, who led the SEC in receiving yards each of the past two seasons, and D.K. Metcalf, who had a season ending neck injury in October, when he was third in the SEC in receiving yards. They also graduated DeMarkus Lodge, who stepped up with the loss of Metcalf, and finished fifth in the conference, averaging 82.2 ypg over the final five games without Metcalf. Rebel fans have to hope its system, not talent, in which case breakout freshman Elijah Moore, who had 11 receptions for 129 games in the first week that Metcalf was out, is next up. Because there is reason to believe in “next man up” at wideout, the bigger loss, even over all three receivers combined, might be left tackle Greg Little, who I’ve seen projected as high as mid-first round. For good measure, starting tight end Dawson Knox, and his 15 receptions, with no touchdowns, decided he was also NFL ready with a season left. It all adds up to an offense that returns only 30% of its production, lowest in the entire FBS. As for all of that returning talent on defense, there’s not a ton to get excited about, but one guy to keep an eye on in 315 pound defensive tackle Josiah Coatney, who is not just a big space eater in the middle, but is surprisingly active and disruptive from that position. How much time does Matt Luke get? He breathes Ole Miss football, and there is some understanding that the Hugh Freeze success was not earned, was not necessarily realistic, and left him with a hole to dig out from. Or maybe they are SEC fans, and expectations are never reasonable. He did pull in a top 25 class for 2019, and unlike Freeze who was reeling in top recruits from all over the country, the top rated kids in Luke’s class were two JUCO kids from Mississippi; a quarterback from Texas without Texas or Texas A&M offers; and a receiver from Arkansas. You know, the type of blue chips that Ole Miss should be able to land.
| KEY PLAYERS |
| RB | Scottie Phillips, Senior |
| WR | Elijah Moore, Sophomore |
| T | Alex Givens, Senior |
| . |
| DT | Josiah Coatney, Senior |
| LB | Mohamed Sanogo, Junior |
| LB | Qaadir Sheppard, Senior |
| 77. Tulane Green Wave |
| #7 in American |
While some questioned hiring a 55 year old head coach to lead a turnaround at a football program that had been morabund for nearly two decades, since Tommy Bowden, Rich Rodriguez and Shaun King left following the 1998 season. But after three years, Willie Fritz seems dedicated to the process, and with a new on campus stadium opening in 2014, and the school reaching their first bowl game since moving up to the AAC, things are looking up for the Green Wave. The next step is finding consistency. Most of Tulane’s recent success came when the stars aligned with a group of seniors, and fell apart when they left. The school has not had back to back winning seasons since they had three straight from 1979-81 under Larry Smith and Vince Gibson. Credit Fritz with making the tough decision to turn away from Jonathan Banks, the senior who had helped the rebuilding process, but simply wasn’t getting it done last year, namely with his rushing numbers way down. So after 7 starts, and a 2-5 record, Fritz started Justin McMillan, the LSU grad transfer. The numbers actually don’t look a ton better, but a spark was lit, Tulane won five of their final six games with McMillan under center. It also helps the Green Wave going into 2019, as Banks has graduated, but McMillan still has another year of eligibility. He leads a very experienced backfield, with a pair of senior running backs. The workhorse, 230 pound, Darius Bradwell, who led the team with 1,134 yards and 11 touchdowns, on 15.5 carries per game; and the quicker Corey Dauphine, who led the team with 6.3 ypc, while still getting 9.5 carries per game himself. They need more running from the quarterback position, after Banks’ 50 ypg in 2017 dropped to just 17.1 in 2018, and even McMillan was only at 26.4. McMillan’s 4.0 ypc was a big uptick from Banks’ 1.5 though. Terren Encalade graduates after back to back 700 yard receiving seasons, but Darnell Mooney, who led the team in receiving, returns, and Tulane adds one of the weirder transfers in Oklahoma State receiver Jalen McCleskey. At least it felt really weird when he decided four games into 2018 to quit his team, while being the leading receiver, but now that we’ve had a few months of the transfer portal experience, it kind of just feels like this is the new normal, guys moving around for no obvious reason, and the first sign of a perceived slight. In his last two full seasons in Stillwater, McCleskey combined for 123 receptions, for 1,457 yards and 12 touchdowns. Life for a receiver outside of Stillwater is a little different though, going from playing in Gundy’s offense, opposite James Washington, to the American Conference school that throws the ball the least, other than Navy. New Orleans is probably more fun than Oklahoma I suppose. The defense last year was carried by their front six, and that group has a chance to be even better. The Green Wave led the conference in sacks, led by sophomore Patrick Johnson at defensive end, and were second to Cincinnati in run defense, allowing 148.5 ypg on 3.9 ypc. Tulane played a base 4-2-5, and graduate only one from that group. The secondary is a different story, where a pair of all conference performers are gone from a unit that allowed 260 ypg, even while getting all of that pressure up front. There is a good chance that they could be starting a pair of sophomores at cornerback.
| KEY PLAYERS |
| QB | Justin McMillan, Senior |
| RB | Darius Bradwell, Senior |
| WR | Darnell Mooney, Senior |
| . |
| DE | Patrick Johnson, Junior |
| LB | Lawrence Graham, Senior |
| LB | Marvin Moody, Junior |
