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74. North Carolina Tar Heels

#13 in ACC

Well that went south in a hurry.  Three years after completing an undefeated ACC regular season, winning North Carolina’s only ACC divisional championship, completing their first top 15 season since 1997, and playing for the school’s first conference championship since 1980, Larry Fedora was fired after back to back 9 loss seasons, and some offseason comments regarding football head injuries that didn’t sit well in the current climate.  Now the school turns back to the coach who took them to their greatest extended success in the past four decades, Mack Brown.  Brown left Chapel Hill for Austin, Texas at the age of 46, and returns at the age of 67.  He’s not a long term answer, but this is a school that should be able to make a strong hire, if it’s on solid footing.  So his job isn’t to go win a national title.  It’s to clean up a program that has had a list of on and off field issues recently, and put them in position to hire a coach that can.  Due to all of the suspensions and uncertainty last year, the Tar Heels are not short on guys who have experience, particularly on offense.  That was an offense that averaged 6.0 ypp, fourth best in the ACC, yet only scored 27.4 ppg.  If they can do a better job of capitalizing on their opportunities this year, that alone should get them up closer to 32 or 33 ppg.  They converted barely a third of their third downs, had the third worst turnover margin in the ACC, and they settled too often for field goals.  They scored touchdowns on only 53.3% of their red zone trips, second worst in the conference, and it was them and Virginia below the rest of the conference by a wide margin.  A rather major change occurred since I assembled these rankings, Nathan Elliott, the returning starting quarterback, and leader to resume that role in 2019, decided to leave the football team to be a graduate assistant at Arkansas State.  Cade Fortin is the most obvious next choice, starting in two games last year when Elliott was injured, and being more of a running threat, averaging 5.4 ypc, but he simply is not anywhere close passing.  The Tar Heels barely asked him to throw, and he still completed only 49% of his passes, and averaged under 100 ypg.  Jace Ruder saw even more limited action, but was 4-5 for 80 yards and a touchdown.  The highest rated recruit in Mack Brown’s first class was in state Sam Howell, who is an early enrollee, and certainly has the best pedigree of the three.  He is a dual threat guy, like Fortin, but seems to already be well ahead as a passer.  In what looks to be a lost Year 1 (or is it 2.1?), I wouldn’t be shocked to see the big upside freshman take the job.  But oh, that defense.  When Mack Brown left, he had guys like Dre Bly, Greg Ellis and Brian Simmons.  This unit gave up 34.5 ppg, and was equally bad against the run and the pass.  Jason Strowbridge is steady and reliable in the middle of the line, but the only guy who should feel secure going forward is Trey Morrison, who started every game except the opener at nickelback, and wound up second on the team in pass break ups and sixth in tackles.  He might not be Dre Bly, but at least Brown should be a little reminded of the type of talent he had on that side of the ball when he left.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Michael Carter, Junior
WR	Dazz Newsome, Junior
T	Charlie Heck, Senior
	.
DT	Jason Strowbridge, Senior
CB	Trey Morrison, Sophomore
S	Myles Dorn, Senior

73. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

#4 in Mountain West

I can’t be the first one to call Hawaii football the Rolo-coaster-vich?  Right?  Nick Rolovich took over the mess of a program from Norm Chow, coming off a 3-9 2015, and immediately turned them into a 7-7 bowl team in 2016.  Then, with some expectations for 2017, Hawaii fell flat, and went 3-9 again, winning only one conference game, just to bounce back and go 8-6, with a 5-3 conference record last year.  It was their first winning season in eight years.  So what do we believe?  That history repeats itself, and the Rainbow Warriors stumble again, or Rolovich continues to rebuild his alma mater into a contender in a West Division where Fresno State lost a ton of talent and Hawaii may actually be the favorite?  Hawaii does not have that problem, returning 79% of their production, best in the conference.  But how much of their success last year was merely a product of their schedule?  Hawaii got off to a 6-1 start, beating three conference bottom feeders, an FCS team, Rice and Navy.  Once the schedule picked up, the Warriors fell off, losing five of their final seven, and being barely competitive in the losses, of 26, 18, 30, 39 and 17.  They did pick up their most impressive win of the season during that stretch, but it was over a San Diego State team that was reeling down the stretch.  It’s no surprise that Rolovich, who thrived under center in June Jones’ run and gun system after Timmy Chang has relied heavily on the passing game, but the difference from some of those Jones teams is that Hawaii is serious about defense.  The Jones teams were tough, but frequently undisciplined and poorly positioned defensively.  Rolovich seems serious about fielding at least a competent defense, and after a dismal 2017 on that side of the ball, Rolovich brought in three new defensive assistant, including new coordinator Corey Batoon from Florida Atlantic.  After being a bottom 25 defense in the nation in 2017, the Warriors were a serviceable unit in 2018, and have one of the most experienced defenses in the country entering 2019.  If they can get the ypp down below 6.0, which seems very doable, the 35+ points a game this offense is going to score should be enough.  This program still has June Jones’ fingerprints all over it, and let’s not pretend like Hawaii is winning on defense.  They just need enough defense to sling the ball all over the yard.  That, Cole McDonald did, nearly 40 times per game, while maintaining an excellent 36 to 10 TD:INT ratio.  The early departure to the NFL of top receiver John Ursua hurts a bit, but Cedric Byrd and JoJo Ward return, after combining for 130 catches, 1,835 yards, and 18 touchdowns, as the second and third options.  They also add Auburn transfer Nate Craig-Myers, who never realized his potential there, but has the frame of an NFL wideout, and should certainly see plenty more opportunities than he did at his first stop.  Whether Hawaii was a product of their early schedule, or a program building towards what could be a great 2019 will be determined early, as they open with three straight games against Pac 12 competition.  The first two, home games against Arizona and Oregon State, are winnable, and would make a huge statement that Hawaii is in fact the divisional favorite.  Losing one, or even both, would not necessarily be cause for major concern, but with road games at Washington, Nevada and Boise State in the four weeks to follow, it might make a bowl a tall task, because an 0-2 start, could mean a likely 1-5 start.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Cole McDonald, Junior
WR	Cedric Byrd, Senior
G	Solo Vaipulu, Sophomore
	.
DE	Kaimana Padello, Senior
LB	Solomon Matautia, Senior
CB	Rojesterman Farris II, Senior

The Big XII stands alone as the only Conference that has not but a singular blemish. 

The Chip Kelly era is off to about as bad of a start as possible. The injuries were bad enough but the exodus of players (still a few more expected) is what’ll kill what should’ve been a breakout second year. The QBs aren’t showing passing accuracy to start Spring drills. And only 6 DL are on scholly. It’s a particularly bad time to be falling so flat since given how open (bad) the PAC 12 South is and how the Bruins aren’t capitalizing from the rut their crosstown rival is wallowing in.

The Big XII stands alone as the only Conference that has not but a singular blemish.

Sorry, I misread your post.  You are correct.  A singular blemish.
My impression is that the bottom has more P5 teams than usual.

Arkansas and Ole Miss are now in the bag.  

Arizona makes 3 from the Pac with UCLA and Colorado (who might be a bit better this year)
Ole Miss and Arky
Kansas
Illinoi and Rutger
Laville and ...UNC

70. Temple Owls

#6 in American

While no Temple fan is clamoring for a return to the days of Bruce Arians, Jerry Berndt, Ron Dickerson and Bobby Wallace, the miserable run of football for 20 years, from the mid 80s through the mid 90s, the recent coaching turnover has to be getting frustrating.  At this point guys aren’t even sticking around long enough to prove they can coach.  It seems like if a coach is good enough for Temple to want them, and they aren’t a complete screw up, that’s good enough for some Power 5 school.  Al Golden was there for 5 years, then took the Miami job; then Steve Addazio for two (the second of which he went 4-7) and left for Boston College; Matt Rhule for four before leaving for Baylor; Geoff Collins for two before taking the Georgia Tech job; then Mazzy Diaz for maybe a few hours, before getting the Miami job.  Next up is former Northern Illinois coach Rod Carey.  In fairness, Northern Illinois has gone through the same issue, so for Temple to take their coach is actually a little funny.  The lack of stability is not just at the coaching level, for the second consecutive year, Temple switched quarterbacks midseason.  The Owls went from Logan Marchi to Frank Nutile midway through 2017, which saved their season, and got them into a bowl.  But then Nutile saw himself replaced last year by Frank Russo, with similar results.  Temple went 7-1 in conference, which isn’t enough when you are in the same division as Central Florida.  Now, while Russo returns, there are tons of questions around him.  It starts at running back, with Ryquell Armstead graduating.  Armstead was outstanding, finished third in the AAC in rushing, but even with that, the Owls had the third worst rushing offense in the conference.  Now they need to cobble something together from those guys.  Russo would also benefit from a return to 2017 form from Isaiah Wright.  Wright is always dangerous on special teams, a nation best 3 return touchdowns a year ago, while leading the conference in punt return yardage, and being named AAC Special Teams Player of the Year.  But as a sophomore, Wright also led the team in receiving, but slipped to third last year, in spite of being healthy all season.  Wright is the only proven commodity at the skill positions, so if he is the same player he was in 2018, Temple could struggle greatly to score.  On defense, the issue is going to be replacing a secondary that graduated three of four starters from the best group in the conference.  The easily led the conference, allowing just 5.6 ypa, which was also tops in the nation.  That’s why Daniel Jones of Duke made himself some money with the show he put on in the Independence Bowl, going 30-41 for 423 yards and 5 touchdowns, on 10.3 ypa.  The casual fan tuned in and said “oh, he’s just padding stats against Temple,” but that was a very, very good pass defense, even acknowledging that level of competition had something to do with them being #1 in the nation.  If there is any reason for optimism back there it’s that Temple also replaced three secondary starters a year ago, from a unit that had also finished with the top pass defense in the conference in 2017, although that only put them at #40 nationally.  Unfortunately, there’s a reason Geoff Collins took defensive backs coach Nate Burton with him to Georgia Tech and promoted him to coordinator.  Probably didn’t hurt that Burton is also a Georgia Tech alum.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Anthony Russo, Junior
WR	Isaiah Wright, Senior
G	Jovahn Fair, Senior
	.
DE	Quincy Roche, Junior
LB	Shaun Bradley, Senior
S	Benny Walls, Senior

69. UAB Blazers

#1 in Conference USA

Call this more of a vote in (a) the program and (b) the “strength” of Conference USA.  Because UAB loses everybody.  Not literally, but damn close.  They started 15 seniors a year ago, who took a program from non-existence to a conference championship in two seasons.  Bill Clark has gone 13-3 in two years at the school, after spending two years shut down.  Keeping Bill Clark away from getting poached by another school was far more important than retaining any player.  As long as he is at the helm, I’m not going to predict much of a dip.  He overcame much larger odds, against a better conference to go 6-2 in league play two years ago.  So graduating a bunch of dudes is small potatoes.  The Blazers only return 36% of their production from a year ago, worst in the nation.  And it’s not as though one side can compensate for the other, both sides of the ball individually ranked in the bottom five.  What returning production the Blazers do have seems to be solely in the legs of Spencer Brown.  Brown wound up third in the league in rushing, and was named first team all-conference.  He did that thanks to 272 carries, fifth most in the country, but only averaged 4.5 ypc, the worst of any back to finish in the top 50 nationally in raw yardage (Brown was 21st in the nation in rushing).  His season long run of 30 yards was the shortest longest run of any player in the top 125.  He’s not going to wow you, but he is going to be good for nearly 20 carries every game.  The problem is those numbers were behind a line that featured four of the ten first or second all-conference linemen.  All four are gone.  As is quarterback A.J. Erdely.  The Blazers split time under center, so all this means is that junior Tyler Johnson III, who played in every game but one, is now the man.  He may help Brown with the workload carrying the ball, he wound up second on the team in rushing a year ago, despite being the part time quarterback.  What got UAB to a conference title was a defense that went from middling to arguably (give or take a Southern Miss) the best in the conference, particularly against the run.  Garrett Marino is back to plug up the middle, but the rest of the front seven has been gutted.  A shaky secondary, which gave up decent yardage per reception, was very reliant on that front seven to relentlessly pursue the quarterback, racking up a conference best 3.43 sacks per game.  The Blazers sacked the quarterback on 10.64% of dropbacks, best in the nation.  But of the 48 sacks they recorded last year, only 7.5 (15.6%) were by players returning in 2019.  Obviously the program had to be rebuilt on transfers, there are 39 of them, from all levels of football, on the roster, but as transfer crazy season is upon us, UAB has nobody in the transfer portal, either in or out.  Clark signed the #6 rated class in the conference for 2019, and the early returns on his 2020 class are even better, top 40 nationally, and #1 in the conference.  So while he did what he needed to do, he is now program building, and UAB looks to be more stable right now that just about anyone.  In a down year, that might be enough to steal a second straight league crown.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Tyler Johnson III, Sophomore
RB	Spencer Brown, Junior
K	Nick Vogel, Senior
	.
DT	Garrett Marino, Senior
LB	Kris Moll, Junior
CB	Brontae Harris, Junior