| 82. UL Monroe Warhawks |
| #4 in Sun Belt |
Now here is where Connolly’s returning production methodology has a bit of a hole, when accounting for teams that became younger as the season went on. The Warhawks return 9 offensive starters and 10 defensive starters, but are just 45th in his metric. Not guys who were forced into starting roles, but younger guys who earned their way into the lineup during the year. UL Monroe opened the season with 6 senior starters on defense, coming off a year where they were the worst defense in the Sun Belt across the board, allowing an FBS worst 532.1 ypg. 5 of those seniors saw themselves replaced by underclassmen as the season wore on, so that by the end of the year, linebacker David Griffith was the last senior standing. That youth movement paid off both in 2018 and going forward, with the WarHawks rising to the middle of the conference, allowing 10 fewer points per game and over 100 fewer yards, compared to 2017. Now they have returning talent, not just returning starters, starting on what has the making of possibly the best defensive line in the conference. Seniors Donald Lewis and Jaylen Veasley both made the all-conference team, and taking advantage of that kind of talent playing around him, freshman Kerry Starks was able to tie for the team lead in sacks. Starks was arrested two weeks ago for domestic battery, and immediately suspended. Not to wade into these waters, but with both parties charged, this feels like one of those incidents that a football program can sweep under the rug with a reduced charge, and the WarHawks best young talent will be back on the field this fall. Offensively, everything depends on just how good Caleb Evans can be. Hopes were very high for him last year, there is an article out there proclaiming he could be UL Monroe’s first Maxwell Award winner. For the record, some guy named Tua Tagovailoa won it, but I’m sure Evans was right there next to him. In fairness, Evans was 2nd in the Sun Belt in Total QBR as a sophomore, his first year as a starter, and was the top returning player in that category last year. Instead, Evans saw his yards per attempt fall by almost a full yard, his touchdowns decrease, and his interceptions double. While the Maxwell seems probably out of reach, he has more talent than he showed last year, and now they need him even more, with their two all-Sun Belt skill position players gone. He does have all five starters on the line returning, with four of them entering their third or fourth years starting. It’s not ideal to have no proven players at receiver or running back, but those seem to be the places where even mid-majors can find a dude. An undersized athletic kid, or a big kid, who might be a touch slow to get that 3rd or 4th star. It’s the line and quarterback where good players don’t grow on trees at places like UL Monroe, and the Warhawks seem set there. The program only has one conference title since moving up from what was then 1-AA in 1994, a shared Sun Belt title in 2005, in a weird year where they went 5-2 in conference to get a share of the crown, but lost all four non-conference games and therefore were ineligible for a bowl. In the weaker division, UL Monroe should be the favorite to reach the Sun Belt Championship Game, and on one single day, anything can happen. At the very least they should get to their second bowl game in program history, first since 2012.
| KEY PLAYERS |
| QB | Caleb Evans, Senior |
| C | Bobby Reynolds, Senior |
| G | T.J. Fiailoa, Junior |
| . |
| DE | Donald Lewis, Senior |
| DE | Kerry Starks, Sophomore |
| |
| 81. Louisville Cardinals |
| #14 in ACC |
They didn’t get their Plan A guy, but I actually think as far as Plan B guys go, Louisville hit it out of the park. People remember the 1-AA power Appalachian State, and obviously the Michigan upset in 2007, and just kind of assumes the current success is just a continuation of that. But the Mountaineers began trending in the wrong direction during Jerry Moore’s last couple of years, was essentially forced out, then Scott Satterfield took over a team that went 4-8 in their last year at the FCS level, and attempted to transition them to FBS. After a middling first couple years, he got the program rolling again, going 41-11 overall, and 28-4 in Sun Belt play, with 3 conference championships and a 4-0 bowl record over the past four seasons. 2007 maybe put the name out there for recruiting purposes, but Satterfield brought that program back. Now he gets a chance to do it at a higher level, and trust me, this roster is a mess. There is talent, but there are all kinds of issues. Issues that were allowed to grow and fester, because they had the best player in college football the previous few seasons, masking everything. But without him in 2018, things got ugly. The Cardinal went winless in ACC play, and lost their final 9 games of the season, by an average of 31.1 ppg, never being within 18 points over the final seven. No Cardinal player made any sort of postseason honors list, and the ACC trots out a first, second and third team all-conference, plus honorable mention. No Louisville player to be seen. No other school had less than four. For some reason, Petrino thought the answer to a struggling defense, was hiring Brian VanGorder, as his third defensive coordinator in three years, after he had bombed out at Notre Dame. The result? Defense got a whole lot worse. Cardinals were worse across the board in every category, and last in the ACC. They gave up 44.1 ppg on 6.9 ypp. Louisville trailed so early, so badly, that their opponents only attempted 290 passes against them on the season. But while the defense was expected to be bad, and was simply worse, the nosedive the offense took was totally unexpected, even with the loss of Lamar Jackson. This was still an offense that returned 4 offensive linemen, all three starting receivers, and still had a quarterback in the wings in Jawon Pass who was a coveted 4 star recruit, who chose Louisville, specifically to play in Petrino’s system, over offers from schools such as Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State. And it’s not like Petrino had ever struggled to field an offense. But what had been the ACC’s best offense in 2017, ranking tops in the conference in scoring, yardage and passing, second in rushing; third in the nation in yardage; fell to the very bottom of the conference. They dropped from 38.1 ppg to 19.8; from 544.9 ypg to 354.7. You have to believe the talent is there, at least on the offensive side of the ball. It’s clear Petrino had completely ignored the defense, and simply returning a ton of starters might mean very little. They need a few years of recruiting classes to begin to rebuild that. Right away, defensive end Ja’Darian Boykin from Gray, Georgia, seems to be the most obvious immediate impact guy, but defensive end might be the one area on defense the Cardinals are sort of ok. The fact that four of the five highest rated players in the class play defense is a good start. Considering how ugly last year was, and how obviously ugly it was from early on, followed by a coaching transition, the fact that Louisville has the lowest rated class in the ACC isn’t a surprise, but the recruiting trail is the area Satterfield remains a mystery in. He has never played or coached at the Power Five level in any capacity.
| KEY PLAYERS |
| QB | Jawon Pass, Junior |
| WR | Dez Fitzpatrick, Junior |
| T | Mekhi Becton, Junior |
| . |
| DE | Amonte Caban, Senior |
| DE | Tabarius Peterson, Junior |
| LB | C.J. Avery, Junior |
