A "coin flip" league is one thing if you look at a single game sample size. But over a larger sample, if you're coming up tails more than heads too often relative to expectations, you're simply not performing. At some point it's not merely bad luck with the way the coin flipped.
Exactly. I'll add that randomness and parity are NOT exactly the same thing.
As I said upthread, I think that the focus on 3pt shooting has increased randomness because even great shooters have off nights and even terrible shooters have good nights. Ie, my example from above:
If
@betarhoalphadelta is 6" taller than me and more athletic then I am basically never going to be better than him in the post. Conversely, if
@MaximumSam is a 35% 3pt shooter and I am a 25% 3pt shooter I will occasionally have nights where I shoot better than him.
So random bad losses and even random bad seasons ARE going to happen and I'm not someone who thinks the coach should be fired over them. I took the #2 seed loss to a #15 in stride in part because a lot of great coaches have had similar or worse losses. That loss is one of the 13 worst losses in NCAA Tournament history, the other 12 coaches:
- Tony Bennett's UVA Cavaliers lost to a #16 as a #1 in 2018. Bennett won the NC the next year and has six ACC Championships.
- Matt Painter's PU Boilermakers lost to a #16 as a #1 seed last year. Painter has four B1G titles.
- Jim Boeheim's Syracuse Orange lost to a #15 as a #2 in 1991. Boeheim has an NCAA title, five F4's, and 10 BigEast titles.
- Lute Olson's Arizona Wildcats lost to a #15 as a #2 in 1993. Olson has an NC, five F4's, 11 P10 titles, and one Big Ten title.
- Eddie Fogler's USCe Gamecocks lost to a #15 as a #2 in 1997.
- Larry Eustachy's ISU Cyclones lost to a #15 as a #2 in 2001. Eustachy has two B12 titles.
- Mike Krzyzewski's Duke Blue Devils lost to a #15 as a #2 in 2012. Coach K has five NCAA titles, 13 F4's, and 13 ACC titles.
- Frank Haith's Mizzou Tigers lost to a #15 as a #2 in 2012. Haith has a B12 title.
- John Thompson III's Gerogetown Hoyas lost to a #15 as a #2 in 2013. Thompson has three BigEast titles.
- Tom Izzo's MSU Spartans lost to a #15 as a #2 in 2016. Izzo has an NC, eight F4's, and 10 league titles.
- John Calipari's Kentucky Wildcats lost to a #15 as a #2 in 2022. Calipari has an NC, six F4's, and six SEC titles.
- Tommy Lloyd's Arizona Wildcats lost to a #15 as a #2 in 2023. Lloyd has a P12 title.
Losing as a #2 to a #15 or even as a #1 to a #16 isn't a firing offense because random stuff happens. Bennett, Boeheim, Olson, Krzyzewski, Izzo, and Calipari are NC winning coaches and they did it.
Similarly in looking at this season the losses to PSU, IU, and M were all bad losses but individually bad losses happen.
Bad games and even bad seasons happen even to great coaches. Great coaches offset bad losses and bad seasons with great wins and great seasons.
This is Holtmann's SEVENTH year. There have been no B1G titles. The only year that was even close was his first year, with Matta's players. There have been no F4's, there hasn't even been a S16.
Trajectory:
Holtmann went 15-3 in the B1G in 2017/18 with Matta's players. Since then he has gone 50-56 including 7-19 over the last two seasons with a road losing streak that is now into double digits.