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Exhibit I, Results not matching Recruiting:
Team Recruiting Rankings in the B1G:

• 2023:  tOSU was #2 behind MSU
• 2022:  tOSU #1
• 2021:  tOSU #10 (largely because they only had two commits)
• 2020:  tOSU #7
• 2019:  tOSU #1
• 2018:  tOSU #6
• 2017:  tOSU #1

So in the last seven years Ohio State has been #1 three times and in the top-2 four times.  They should be one of the better teams in the B1G at least some years and instead, since 2018 they've finished 8th, 7th, 5th, 6th, and 13th and are on pace for another double-digit finish this year.  

As I said in the earlier post, I believe that coaching hires are more art than science.  I don't think there is a sure-fire formula.  What I do know is that the average hire is average and Holtmann isn't so the new hire has a better than 50/50 chance of being better than Holtmann.  I'll take those odds. 

Yep. I've said in the past that one of the things that annoys me most about fan bases is when they have a successful coach (success defined similar to you, performance relative to program average) but they think he's not successful enough, so they want the coach that's going to take them to "the next level."

Well, the "next" level isn't always up. Sometimes it's down. And if you're performing better than the program average, you'd probably have a >50% chance that the next level is worse. 

Fans wanted to push Joe Tiller out in his latter years because they had become to feel entitled to success. I never liked that idea. We then got Danny Hope and we were worse, with no apparent evidence that we were going to get better. I didn't feel all that bad getting rid of him even though the coach that followed him was the worst in program history.

I feel like with Holtmann you have a coach that is underperforming. You may fire him and replace him with your own Darrell Hazell. But the fear that a new coach will be even more unsuccessful than a proven to be underperforming coach is where it gets into silliness. 

I voted "fire him" because you seem to have made a pretty good case he's underperforming. Not sure if Sam agrees with that or not. But I think when a coach has been around and has underperformed for over half a decade, his roster is "his guys", and in year 7(?) is showing nothing that suggests he's turning anything around... You can safely discharge that coach and try someone else. 

I'd like to hear from the two voters who said "no". 

I've listed my reasons, I don't see any reason to continue Holtmann's employment but I'm open to hearing your explanations. 

I haven’t voted, but I would vote no because Michigan gets to fire Juwan first. The program couldn’t look more different from what Beilein built

Holtmann's consistent January slump is one of the odder trends in all of sports. And given the Buckeyes' last two games, it's happening again. Are you able to post a year-by-year list of Holtmann's January slumps? THX!

I don't have one but I guess I should have included that since it is an issue in discussion in this thread so here goes:

2024:
After a win over Miami, OH on December 6 the Buckeyes were 8-1/1-0 and on the border of being ranked.  The only loss was to a pretty good looking aTm team and they had a win over a solid Bama team.  I think they made a one-week appearance in the coaches poll.  Then they lost to a horrible Penn State team and dropped from any discussion of top-25's.  They won their next four but without any impressive wins:

• Close at a neutral site (Atlanta) over UCLA.  This sounds impressive because "UCLA" but isn't because UCLA sucks this year.  
• Blowout literally doubled up NOLA, this sounds impressive because they won by a LOT but NOLA is awful.  
• In OT over WVU at a neutral site (Cleveland) over WVU.  This sounds impressive because "WVU" but isn't because WVU sucks this year.  
• Close at home over Rutgers.  

Then they lost in Bloomington to Indiana and at home to Wisconsin so now they are 12-4/2-3 and have dropped from top-25ish in NET and KenPom with the freefall continuing.  

2023:
On January 1 the Buckeyes won in Evanston to improve to 10-3/2-0.  The three losses were to a ranked SDSU team at a neutral site, at Dook, and to UNC in OT at a neutral site plus the Buckeyes had a win over a ranked TxTech team so they looked solid.  Then they pushed #1 Purdue to the brink in Columbus and honestly had them beat before choking away the win.  The loss to Purdue was the first of what would be five in a row and 15 of 16 to drop to 11-17/3-14 in late February.  

2022:
In 2022 they saved the slump for the end of the year.  They got all the way to 18-7/11-5 then lost four of their last five (including BTT loss) to finish 19-11/12-8.  

2021:
In 2021 they saved the slump for late February/Early March.  They got all the way to 18-4/12-4 and #4 in the nation which set up a top-4 showdown with the Wolverines in Columbus.  Then they lost four straight to fall to 18-8/12-8.  To be fair, the losses included #3 M, #4 IL, and #9 IA but all three of those games were at home and they also lost in East Lansing to unranked MSU.  

2020:
In 2019/20 they beat #6 Kentucky in Las Vegas to improve to 11-1/1-1 and #2 in the nation.  A loss to West Virginia on December 29 was the first of four straight and six out of seven to fall to 12-7/2-6 and completely out of the rankings.  

2019:
In 2018/19 they finished December at 12-1/2-0 and #14 nationally.  Their home loss to #8 MSU on January 5 was the first of five straight and six out of seven to fall to 13-7/3-6 and completely out of the rankings.  

2018:
This was the odd year that PSU was basically kryptonite to tOSU for no apparent reason.  The Buckeyes had a fairly pedestrian 9-4 OOC campaign with losses to Gonzaga, Butler, Clemson, and UNC and no notable wins.  In the B1G they went 15-1 against teams not named PSU and 0-3 (including BTT) against Penn State.  That would be understandable if PSU had been a great team but they were not even a decent team let alone good or great.  Prior to winning the NIT, the Nittany Lions went 21-13/9-9.  They swept the Buckeyes with wins at home, in Columbus, and in NYC at MSG but other than that they were a pedestrian 8-10 against B1G opponents.  

The Buckeyes mauled the eventual B1G Champion Spartans when they played in Columbus but missed out on a B1G Title due to two losses to PSU and one to M.  

One thing I don't see mentioned is the only reason Holtmann wasn't fired last year is b/c the rushed decision to extend his contract makes it too much of an immediate financial hit to fire Holtmann when he should be fired.

IMO, the threshold for keeping Holtmann is 24 wins. 24 wins and Holtmann should likely get another year. 24 wins to include 1 tournament win and Holtmann should certainly get another year. OSU has much work to do for 24 wins.

Holtmann also won +20 games in his first five seasons, so whatever situation he was left with wasn't so backbreaking or persistently detrimental. OSU after Thad Matta certainly wasn't the mess Louisville is currently fighting to clean up.

Unfortunately Gene Smith made a HUMONGOUS mistake in giving an extension with a big buyout to an underperforming coach a few years ago. At the time I thought it was a mistake and the passage of time has only made it more and more obvious that it was a mistake.

My understanding is that the buyout is the rest of the contract which is no small thing.

Exhibit A, Ohio State's history as a program:


There were 33 seasons from expansion (1985) to the last year before Holtmann came to tOSU (2016/17).  In those 33 seasons the Buckeyes had five different coaches Miller, Williams, Ayers, O'Brien, and Matta) and accomplished the following:

• 18 NCAA Tournament appearances, a little better than one every two years. 
• 9 league titles, a little better than one every four years. 
• 8 S16's, not quite one every four years. 
• 5 E8's, a little better than one every seven years. 
• 3 F4's, one every 11 years

. 

How do you rank the OSU coaching tenures over this time period (including Holtmann), based on the criteria that you've set forth in this presentation?

I gotta say this for you Max, you are consistent! Failed season after failed season you still stand behind our failed coach.

 @SuperMario thinks that Ohio State will win in Ann Arbor on Monday, I assume that you agree with him. I think that you are both underestimating the ability of a Chris Holtmann team to suck in the month of January.

Based on Holtmann's pathetic history, the safe assumption is that the Buckeyes will lose in Ann Arbor on Monday. Then next Saturday they will probably lose at home to the worst team in the league for the second consecutive season.

Losing at home last year to the worst team in the league (Minnesota) was the last straw for me. I said then that Holtmann should have been fired that day and events since then have made and are making me into Nostradomus.

I mean...who cares? We are talking about firing Holtmann for results of games that haven't occurred yet. This is basic Buckeye behavior, I've also fielded a million tweets about how Ryan Day should be fired based on things that haven't happened. I don't disagree with your basic premise - the results haven't been good enough. 

The main issue has been defensive issues. They started out noticeably better but have struggled a bit lately. They are also a very young team that start four sophomores and one senior transfer. Some struggles should be expected. Either they will pull out of it or they won't. They have before. I'm not really interested in silly conversations about firing the coach DURING the season while the team is pretty good.