Exhibit A, Ohio State's history as a program:
When the AP did their All-Time College Basketball Programs Rankings a few years ago, Ohio State was #10. I acknowledge that they are not a Blue-Blood. Those are the top programs on the AP's list (UK, UNC, Dook, KU, UCLA) but Ohio State is in the next tier. Within the B1G they trail only #8 IU and #9 MSU. This program should expect maybe not quite Kentucky/Carolina/Dook/Kansas level greatness but something not too far off from that and in Holtmann's 6.5 years at the helm, he has failed to deliver anything close to that.
Looking at this another way, I consider "modern" college Basketball to basically start with the expansion to a 64 team tournament for the 1985 season. You can argue that is not enough or too many years but I'm not cherry-picking, I'm using that because Tournament results (appearances, S16's, E8's, F4's, etc) prior to 1985 really aren't comparable to those since. By using 1985 as my start date, each year is more-or-less fairly comparable to each other year.
There were 33 seasons from expansion (1985) to the last year before Holtmann came to tOSU (2016/17). In those 33 seasons the Buckeyes had five different coaches Miller, Williams, Ayers, O'Brien, and Matta) and accomplished the following:
- 18 NCAA Tournament appearances, a little better than one every two years.
- 9 league titles, a little better than one every four years.
- 8 S16's, not quite one every four years.
- 5 E8's, a little better than one every seven years.
- 3 F4's, one every 11 years
Holtmann is in his seventh season but there have only been six NCAA Tournaments due to the cancellation in 2020 and he has:
- 4 NCAA Tournament appearances and this would be 5 if the 2020 Tournament had been played. Pending the outcome this year (It doesn't look good at this point) and counting 2020 as an "appearance" because it would have been, he'll have either 5 or 6 in seven years. Either way, this is ahead of tOSU's 1985-2017 average.
- 0 league titles. Based on program history he should have at least one and the only year he was even close was 2017/18 when he had Matta's players. We were told he inherited a difficult situation. Ok, but if that is the case, things should have gotten better. Instead, they have gotten worse. Holtmann's first tOSU team went 15-3 and finished a single game out of first. Since then they've never lost fewer than eight league games and never finished closer than 3 GB.
- 0 S16's. Based on program history he should have at least one.
- 0 E8's. Based on program history he should have at least one by the end of this year and (barring a miracle) he won't.
- 0 F4's. Based on program history he should be half way there, he isn't.
The only area where Holtmann has exceeded program history is appearances and even that is faltering with the miss last year and the probable miss this year.
I put this first because, IMHO, this is the most important consideration. After observing multitudes of coaching hires I've come to believe that it is more art than science. There are intangible issues like "fit" that matter. Some coaches are GREAT at mid-major schools but suck when they move up. Sometimes it is a matter of timing. If you get a guy who has a "new wrinkle" when that new thing is still new, he might be great but if you get him a few years later when everyone has caught up you may find that he is a one-trick-pony and his one trick is washed up.
Thus, my view is that if your guy is below your program's average you should move on. Even if you get it wrong, just try again. OTOH, if the current guy is ahead of your program's average, you should keep him. Holtmann is clearly behind my program's average and should be cashiered without delay.
