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They are currently 28th on Torvik and 42nd on KenPom. This isn't some debate - they are an above average team. I would want them to finish in the top 25 this year to feel confident about next season. They aren't far off.

But this is academic. There is no good reason to fire Holtmann during the season. None. The very idea is silly. It shouldn't happen for a variety of reasons that are obvious, it won't happen for even more reasons that are obvious, so why are we even talking about it? Enjoy the team or don't.

The current losing streak is two games. How long would it have to get before you changed you mind on this?

As much as I want a competitive coach, I can see this point for now. However, if this losing streak grows to four games, then, Holtmann is a dead man walking and there is no longer any reason to keep him.

I say this because, as I said above, the next two games a critical because they *SHOULD* be winnable (@M, vPSU) and if they lose these, they are screwed. 

This isn't, in any way, how I enjoy the team, nor do I think anyone could enjoy any sporting event ever if their primary focus is on what parameters should be set to fire people on the team.

It is not enjoyable which is why nobody is going to the games. It should have been dealt with long ago but wasn't. Now here we are. 

It is worth noting - this is not a basketball city.

I do think the more interesting convo is whether college basketball has increased in parity and therefore increased in randomness. How does one compare this era to previous eras?

I definitely think that randomness is up but I don't think that parity is. 

The emphasis on three point shooting inherently increases randomness because even the best shooters have cold nights. 

Let me put it this way:
If you were say 6" taller than me and more athletic, you are ALWAYS going to be a better post player than me, no exceptions. 

OTOH, if you shoot 35% from three and I shoot 25% from three you are clearly a better shooter but a good night for me is probably better than a bad night for you so in a series of three point shooting contests I will occasionally win.

It is not enjoyable which is why nobody is going to the games. It should have been dealt with long ago but wasn't. Now here we are.

This actually works against firing him early. You fire people early for reasons of PR or for football recruiting. 

but if no one cares, no need to fire him for PR. You can do the key parts of the search while he’s still working. No rule against that.

There's another reason to fire early--if the coach (and fans/etc) think a coach is on such a hot seat that he's "coaching for his job", and then he performs, it's a LOT worse getting rid of him.

Think of the 2012 Purdue football team. It became Danny Hope's last year as HC. He was 3-6 through nine games and they were already inscribing the tombstone. The team then rallied to narrow wins against Iowa and Illinois, then beat Indiana by ~20 to reach 6-6 and bowl eligibility.

And then he was fired immediately following the Indiana win, and an interim coach was the HC for the bowl.

It seemed like a dick move, to be honest. If you've made the decision when he's 3-6 that he's gone after the season, fire him at 3-6 and turn the team over to the interim. Not firing him and then watching him celebrate as his team reels off three wins thinking he might save his job is just giving him false hope (pun intended).

So if you believe Holtmann deserves to go after this season (barring a F4 or NC or some crazy level success), it's better to do it sooner than later--if for nothing else, because sneaking into the tournament and getting a R64 win and then losing in the R32 just makes your decision harder.

This.

Once a coach becomes a "dead man walking", I think you get rid of him unless there is some major step-down in buyout that you are waiting for.

If I were Gene Smith, I'd fire him immediately after the Penn State game if they lose the next two (@M tomorrow, vs PSU Saturday).

If they lose the next two they'll drop to 12-6/2-5 despite opening B1G play with nearly the easiest possible first seven games. At that point the 2023/24 season is irrevocably lost.

If they win the next two then there is some hope for this season. They'd be 14-4/4-3. The schedule gets tougher after the next two so they'd need major improvement but it *COULD* happen.

The loss as a #2 seed to a #15 seed was awful.  That would be ok if there were offsetting good wins but there aren't.  Izzo, Coach K, and other greats lost to a #15 as a #2 but Holtmann is no Izzo.   

How in the world were the 2020-21 Buckeyes a tournament TWO seed?? Looking back, Ohio State had a 21-9 record going into the tournament. Two seeds are usually something like 25-7 or 28-5. 21-9 is more like a SIX or SEVEN seed.

Looking over that season's wikipedia page, Ohio State spent from February 4th on ranked in the Top Ten. So that might explain it. But they ended their conference schedule with FOUR straight losses. Which begs the question, why were the Buckeyes consistently ranked so high despite another otherwise average run? Maybe the shakeup of a weird COVID season?

Anyway, here I am on MLK day, watching Ohio State basketball currently down at the half to a 6-10 Michigan team. Holtmann's January slumping rolls on!

they've been a pretty decent team.

I guess, more than anything else, this is where you and I fundamentally disagree and honestly I don't know what makes you think this.  They looked like a good team early with a bunch of wins against crap opponents and a nice upset of Alabama but presently they do not even resemble a good team.  Note that Lunardi has them down to needing to win a play-in to make the field.  Starting with the PSU catastrophe on December 9, here is their resume with NET then KenPom ranking for each opponent:

• #11/9 Wisconsin, lost home
• #86/72 Michigan, lost away
• #93/94 Rutgers, won home
• #98/91 Indiana, lost away
• #128/114 Penn State, lost away
• #173/112 UCLA, won neutral
• #178/136 West Virginia, needed OT at a "neutral" site in our own state
• #312/307 New Orleans, won home

A "pretty decent" team should go 7-1 against that slate.  A pretty decent team *MIGHT* lose either the Michigan or Indiana road games if they had a particularly bad night but they also might win the Wisconsin game if they had a particularly good night so it balances out.  Worst-case-scenario a "pretty decent team" would go 6-2 against that slate.  The Buckeyes went 4-4.  

If they lost AT HOME to Penn State on Saturday, Gene Smith should visit the team in the locker-room after the game to let them know, then call a press conference to announce Holtmann's termination, name the interim coach, and announce that a search is underway.  With a loss to PSU on Saturday, Holtmann will be a dead-man-walking anyway so why bother keeping him around?  

There are multiple advantages of making the move NOW rather than in March including:

• Generate SOME excitement around the team.  There is enough talent in Columbus that it wouldn't be impossible for the interim coach to have a strong finish and win the job so give him (probably Diebler) the opportunity.  
• Show the fans that you care.  Extending Holtmann a couple years ago sent a message that crappy basketball is acceptable.  It shouldn't be.  Show that it isn't.  
• Get a jump on the coaching search (granted, you'd be doing this in the background anyway).  
• Get press.  The news stories will remind everyone (including potential candidates) what a great program this WAS.  Just about a decade ago the Buckeyes went to four straight S16's along with five in seven years and won three straight B1G titles and five in seven years.  If you can Holtmann at the end of the season you'll get no press at all because the Tournament will be going on and there will be LOTS of firings to cover.