| Kind of early in the year for the Big Ten to be playing what sure looks right now like it's going to be the game of the year. While Iowa-Wisconsin last weekend served as almost a de facto West Division title game, the presence of Michigan, and to a lesser extent Michigan State, makes this feel like an important game, but one where the winner could easily lose two more division games. So that "two game lead over the loser, and nobody else matters" we had last week isn't present. However, in each of the previous two seasons, flipping the result of this game would have flipped the East's representative in Indianapolis to the other. Penn State has looked inconsistent, but their A game looks every bit of their A game from the previous two seasons. But it seems to disappear for stretches, long stretches. They should have lost to Appalachian State, they led Pitt by only 1 late in the half, and only led at all because of Pitt's kicker, and trailed late in the 3rd quarter against Illinois. But as iffy as things looked at times against Pitt and Illinois, when the Nittany Lions turned it on, oh boy did they. Ohio State has been consistent, elite offensively, at time shaky on defense. Seeing how TCU struggled against Texas' defense made me question the Buckeyes on that side of the ball even more. Dwayne Haskins continues to impress, picking up plays in chunk, 10.4 ypa, while still showing ball control beyond his years, with only one pick. While Ohio State's defense has had questions, Penn State's hasn't looked a ton better. They improvement since the opener is noticeable, but even James Franklin isn't sure what to do on that side of the ball. He had a unit at one point early in the Illinois game with only 2 starters on the field. Just rotating through guys trying to find the right combination. The fact that the Nittany Lions pass defense now ranks fourth in the Big Ten per play, and fifth in overall passing defense is fairly impressive considering how far behind they were after letting Appalachian State's Zac Thomas complete 66% of his passes for 270 yards on 7.1 ypa. Considering he's completed 86% of his passes since then, maybe Thomas is just better than we knew. Or maybe Penn State played Pitt in the rain, and Kent State and Illinois teams that feature run first quarterback mentalities. Remember Kent State brought in a former Gus Malzahn quarterback, and Illinois hired RichRod's QB coach. Vegas has no respect for the night white out crowd, installing Penn State as a home underdog for the first time since the last time Ohio State visited. That was the game that jump started Franklin's program at a time it seemed more likely Franklin would be fired by 2018 than have returned the Nittany Lions to the nation's elite. While the story that night was Penn State's defense totally shutting Ohio State down late to allow the comeback, on this night it will be Trace McSorley, reminding everyone why he, now Haskins was the unanimous preseason first team all-conference quarterback. TCU's Shawn Robinson threw for 308 yards on 60% completions. He's never even otherwise thrown for 200 yards. That gives me concerns about how the Buckeyes defense will hold up against better opponents. And while the Ohio State recievers have greatly outperformed expectations, I'm nervous about their abilities in route running when the mentality of "get them the ball and let them make plays" in space, involves doing so in a lot less space than they'll have on Saturday night. Ohio State will have their moments, but I think the White Out can help stem the type of momentum bursts that swung the TCU game in Ohio State's favor. |
