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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Temp430 on September 25, 2018, 08:09:13 AM

Title: #4 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at #9 Penn State (1-1, 4-1) Post Game
Post by: Temp430 on September 25, 2018, 08:09:13 AM
OK, I'll start this game thread.  The Buckeyes are 3.5 point favorites despite the white out.  Penn State's new running back looks like a clone of Barkley.   Ohio State's defense will be sure to "test" him.  My head says the Buckeyes are gonna shellac the Nitts but my heart....eh, I guess a tie aint possible.
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0)
Post by: slugsrbad on September 25, 2018, 08:18:46 AM
Perhaps the super charged crowd will will the ghosts of Defenses past into this current pride of Nittany Lions, but I'm not holding my breath.  I think it will be an exciting game, and like the last two contests it will come down to a huge special teams play.  I'll be there, so hopefully it is in the Lions favor.  
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: ELA on September 25, 2018, 08:38:11 AM
Absent some weather flukiness, I don't know if 35 will be enough to win.
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 25, 2018, 10:44:56 AM
35 definitely won't be enough for PSU to win. If OSU wins, it could be. In any event, I'm guessing the winner will hit 42.
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 25, 2018, 10:52:56 AM
 I view McSorley as the best offenslve player in the conference. I may be wrong about this but I don’t think he’s lever lost a game in Happy Valley??

The teams are similar-very good on offense- and loaded with studs- but because of inexperience- in consistent on D. 

In a game like that, advantage to the QB that has  successfully navigated those huge environments.   McSorley has done incredibly well.
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 25, 2018, 11:00:15 AM
I think that's correct about McSorley's record at home. But...how many of those were games against teams that finished high in the rankings? Just the one in 2016, right?
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: MaximumSam on September 25, 2018, 11:12:15 AM
Should be a fun game
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 25, 2018, 12:21:35 PM
I think for the most part that we know what we are going to get out of Ohio State's offense but the defense has been ridiculously inconsistent.  

Here is an article from the Cleveland Paper (https://www.cleveland.com/osu/2018/09/ohio_states_defense_might_crea.html) after week three explaining that at that point Ohio State's defense had been one of the best in the country at creating big plays and one of the worst in the country at giving up big plays.  To me, that seems like a recipe for a jeckyll and hyde season.  I have no idea what to expect from this game because I feel like the following two possibilities are both approximately equally likely:

I haven't watched much PSU this year but they seem to have defensive inconsistency issues of their own so I just feel like this is one of those games were, truly, anything can happen.  I think it will come down to which defense steps up.  
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 25, 2018, 12:44:08 PM
If it's #2, then the game could even be 45-42 or 49-45.
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: ELA on September 25, 2018, 12:55:57 PM
I think that's correct about McSorley's record at home. But...how many of those were games against teams that finished high in the rankings? Just the one in 2016, right?
Just one that finished ranked, period.  Just two (adding UM last year) that were ranked as of game time.  Only 4 P5 teams that finished with a winning record (adding an 8-5 Iowa and a 9-4 Minnesota)
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on September 25, 2018, 02:38:40 PM
Just one that finished ranked, period.  Just two (adding UM last year) that were ranked as of game time.  Only 4 P5 teams that finished with a winning record (adding an 8-5 Iowa and a 9-4 Minnesota)
  • Kent State (3-9)
  • Temple (10-4)
  • Minnesota (9-4)
  • Maryland (6-7)
  • #2 Ohio State (11-2) (wound up #6)
  • Iowa (8-5)
  • Michigan State (3-9)
  • Akron (7-7)
  • Pittsburgh (5-7)
  • Georgia State (7-5)
  • Indiana (5-7)
  • #19 Michigan (8-5) (wound up unranked)
  • Rutgers (4-8)
  • Nebraska (4-8)
  • Appalachian State
  • Kent State
how the hell have they gotten away with such a shit charmin soft home schedule like that? Jesus. Talk about luck.
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: TyphonInc on September 25, 2018, 06:35:52 PM
NO WAY Ohio State Beats Penn State!
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 25, 2018, 09:13:41 PM
how the hell have they gotten away with such a shit charmin soft home schedule like that? Jesus. Talk about luck.
Is that luck? That's miserable for fans and, since the East is so tough, seems to imply a deathly road slate. The other half of the question is fair, though. Why haven't more good teams been visiting PSU? I must be missing some random coincidence or something.

EDIT: Nevermind. It's super obvious. Two of the east's top programs were down for one game each -- MSU had a 3-9 year in 2016 and Michigan had an 8-5 year in 2017.
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on September 26, 2018, 10:52:56 AM
Is that luck? That's miserable for fans and, since the East is so tough, seems to imply a deathly road slate. The other half of the question is fair, though. Why haven't more good teams been visiting PSU? I must be missing some random coincidence or something.

EDIT: Nevermind. It's super obvious. Two of the east's top programs were down for one game each -- MSU had a 3-9 year in 2016 and Michigan had an 8-5 year in 2017.
You hit the nail on the head, my friend.
Also, to get a fair comparison, you have to have the same list from another B1G team.  Is it that unusual to play more patsies at home?  Probably not.
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: ELA on September 26, 2018, 11:28:11 AM
You hit the nail on the head, my friend.
Also, to get a fair comparison, you have to have the same list from another B1G team.  Is it that unusual to play more patsies at home?  Probably not.
Right, we are only looking at half the schedule.  Basically PSU got MSU/UM at home in the year they were bad, and road in the year they were good.  That's just fluke luck.  They didn't play Wisconsin during that time, so that's nice, and they didn't schedule particularly well.
So I don't think it's fair to criticize Penn State for being out of whack, but it does make sense in saying "pump the brakes a bit" on being overly impressed by McSorley's undefeated home record when it only includes 1 team that finished ranked.
For comparison, since he brought it up, Michigan's in the same time frame.  The reds are the two losses.
So, certainly more ranked teams.  Partly because they are flipped from PSU re: MSU, so they were on the road for MSU's bad year, and had them at home their good year.  They had Wisconsin in there, while PSU did not.  The year they got PSU at home, PSU turned out to be good, while when PSU got UM at home, UM was not.  Then Colorado/Pitt, which I think deserving comparable scheduling merit, turned out that Colorado had their lone good team in like a decade, while Pitt was as mediocre as ever.
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on September 26, 2018, 11:39:15 AM
OK, I'll start this game thread.  The Buckeyes are 3.5 point favorites despite the white out.  Penn State's new running back looks like a clone of Barkley.   Ohio State's defense will be sure to "test" him.  My head says the Buckeyes are gonna shellac the Nitts but my heart....eh, I guess a tie aint possible.
Penn State's new running back (Miles Sanders) is really good, but he isn't a clone of Barkley.  Sanders doesn't have the breakaway speed, size or pass catching ability that Barkley had.  However, Sanders is playing behind a much better offensive line, and behind a tight end that can actually block.  He's also more likely to take the 2-3 yard gain, rather than dance around looking for the huge run.  Due to these factors, Miles isn't as likely to break a huge run, but he's much more consistent and the team tends to be "on schedule" more often.  This allows for much easier 3rd down conversions.
My head also says the Buckeyes are going to shellac my Nittany lions. 
1.  Penn State's run defense has been average or below average all year. 
2.  Ditto for their pass rush.  Last year Penn State had their best Dlineman injured in the second half.  This pretty much ended Penn State's ability to rush the passer and allowed JT Barrett to go wild.  Turns out that was a career ending injury for Buckholtz.  Penn State has talent, but they are young and lack experience. 
3.  Penn State's secondary is actually pretty good, but if there is no pass rush, Haskins will pick them apart.  Even the best cornerbacks will have troubles covering a wide receiver for more than a few seconds.
4.  Ohio State's offensive line looks even better than it normally does. 
5.  With that said, the whiteout will help the defense tremendously.  However, I don't foresee Penn State holding OSU to less than 35 points.
Penn State's offense is different than last year, but still very good. 
1.  The loss of Barkley is somewhat offset by the factors described above. 
2.  The loss of Gesicki is pretty big, but his replacements have proven to be excellent blockers. 
3.  Penn State really misses the sure hands of Hamilton, but the new crop of wide receivers are also more likely to make huge plays.  I sometimes get the feeling that every pass is either going to be dropped, called back by penalty, or go for a touchdown. 
4.  There's a lack of consistency that will likely bite them sooner or later, and it is likely Ohio State will do the biting. 
5.  I still think PSU is good for at least 24 points, based upon McSorely's consistency and the offense's ability to make big plays. 
I would also give Penn State the edge on punt/kick returns, but I don't expect there to be enough opportunities to make a difference in the game.
Penn State will need lots of help to win this.  I predict OSU to win by at least 2 touchdowns, and maybe more.
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: SuperMario on September 26, 2018, 12:21:40 PM
Should be a fun game
I love this game. This & Ohio State V Wisconsin are my two favorite non-Michigan games. Night games at Happy Valley are always entertaining and the atmosphere is second to none. We're going to learn a lot about both teams. The biggest question from my seat is how big of an impact on the defense is the absence of Bosa?
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 26, 2018, 12:36:47 PM
I love this game. This & Ohio State V Wisconsin are my two favorite non-Michigan games. Night games at Happy Valley are always entertaining and the atmosphere is second to none. We're going to learn a lot about both teams. The biggest question from my seat is how big of an impact on the defense is the absence of Bosa?
I'm bullish on that DL being just fine without him.
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 26, 2018, 12:48:02 PM
2.  The loss of Gesicki is pretty big, but his replacements have proven to be excellent blockers.  
Gesicki was a real jeckyl-hyde of a TE. Insane ball skills for his size, but when he was actually aligned tight to the end on a run play, he often/usually/always became a sacrificial rag doll for the SDE to tear through with only the faintest obstruction. 
Watching, I'd grimace a lot and wonder how he didn't have many more injuries.
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: MaximumSam on September 26, 2018, 01:19:36 PM
I love this game. This & Ohio State V Wisconsin are my two favorite non-Michigan games. Night games at Happy Valley are always entertaining and the atmosphere is second to none. We're going to learn a lot about both teams. The biggest question from my seat is how big of an impact on the defense is the absence of Bosa?
Jonathan Cooper replaces him, and certainly won't be as good as Bosa.  My read on him so far has been he's solid but unspectacular.  Probably be more of a rotation than when Bosa played.  
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Cincydawg on September 26, 2018, 01:32:46 PM
Ohio State 45

Penn State 24
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 26, 2018, 01:46:25 PM
Ohio State 45

Penn State 24
If OSU holds PSU to 24 anywhere, let alone on the road, then that defense is far better than we've thought to date. I'm not sure the Big Ten's *best* defense will hold PSU to 24 or fewer at HOME.
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on September 26, 2018, 01:55:00 PM
If OSU holds PSU to 24 anywhere, let alone on the road, then that defense is far better than we've thought to date. I'm not sure the Big Ten's *best* defense will hold PSU to 24 or fewer at HOME.
One thing I've noticed over the years is that a good offense can make an average defense look good.  For example, if OSU puts a few 5-7 minute drives together they can keep the PSU offense off the field and easily hold them to 24 points.  Also a good pass rush can make a secondary look good.  This pretty much describes Wisconsin, btw.  :)
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 26, 2018, 01:59:18 PM
Right, we are only looking at half the schedule.  Basically PSU got MSU/UM at home in the year they were bad, and road in the year they were good.  That's just fluke luck.  
Just to clarify, it is BAD luck.  
In 2017:
In 2016:

I have a hard time believing that HFA would be enough to flip PSU's 49-10 loss to Michigan in 2016 but the close road loss to MSU in 2017 would have been pretty likely to go the other way in Happy Valley.  

It is bad luck because PSU got HFA when they didn't need it (2017 against Michigan and 2016 against MSU) and didn't get it when they did need it (2017 against MSU and 2016 against Michigan).  
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Cincydawg on September 26, 2018, 02:25:19 PM
That App State game sticks with me.  ASU had one turnover to zero, and 105 yards of penalties to 10 yards.

They outgained PSU (slightly) and "held them" to 38 points.

I think Ohio State is going to go out to a decent lead and hold it by running clock.

Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: ELA on September 26, 2018, 03:09:24 PM

***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK***
#4 Ohio State Buckeyes (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State Nittany Lions (1-0, 4-0)
7:30 - State College, PA - ABC
Kind of early in the year for the Big Ten to be playing what sure looks right now like it's going to be the game of the year.  While Iowa-Wisconsin last weekend served as almost a de facto West Division title game, the presence of Michigan, and to a lesser extent Michigan State, makes this feel like an important game, but one where the winner could easily lose two more division games.  So that "two game lead over the loser, and nobody else matters" we had last week isn't present.  However, in each of the previous two seasons, flipping the result of this game would have flipped the East's representative in Indianapolis to the other.  Penn State has looked inconsistent, but their A game looks every bit of their A game from the previous two seasons.  But it seems to disappear for stretches, long stretches.  They should have lost to Appalachian State, they led Pitt by only 1 late in the half, and only led at all because of Pitt's kicker, and trailed late in the 3rd quarter against Illinois.  But as iffy as things looked at times against Pitt and Illinois, when the Nittany Lions turned it on, oh boy did they.  Ohio State has been consistent, elite offensively, at time shaky on defense.  Seeing how TCU struggled against Texas' defense made me question the Buckeyes on that side of the ball even more.  Dwayne Haskins continues to impress, picking up plays in chunk, 10.4 ypa, while still showing ball control beyond his years, with only one pick.  While Ohio State's defense has had questions, Penn State's hasn't looked a ton better.  They improvement since the opener is noticeable, but even James Franklin isn't sure what to do on that side of the ball.  He had a unit at one point early in the Illinois game with only 2 starters on the field.  Just rotating through guys trying to find the right combination.  The fact that the Nittany Lions pass defense now ranks fourth in the Big Ten per play, and fifth in overall passing defense is fairly impressive considering how far behind they were after letting Appalachian State's Zac Thomas complete 66% of his passes for 270 yards on 7.1 ypa.  Considering he's completed 86% of his passes since then, maybe Thomas is just better than we knew.  Or maybe Penn State played Pitt in the rain, and Kent State and Illinois teams that feature run first quarterback mentalities.  Remember Kent State brought in a former Gus Malzahn quarterback, and Illinois hired RichRod's QB coach.  Vegas has no respect for the night white out crowd, installing Penn State as a home underdog for the first time since the last time Ohio State visited.  That was the game that jump started Franklin's program at a time it seemed more likely Franklin would be fired by 2018 than have returned the Nittany Lions to the nation's elite.  While the story that night was Penn State's defense totally shutting Ohio State down late to allow the comeback, on this night it will be Trace McSorley, reminding everyone why he, now Haskins was the unanimous preseason first team all-conference quarterback.  TCU's Shawn Robinson threw for 308 yards on 60% completions.  He's never even otherwise thrown for 200 yards.  That gives me concerns about how the Buckeyes defense will hold up against better opponents.  And while the Ohio State recievers have greatly outperformed expectations, I'm nervous about their abilities in route running when the mentality of "get them the ball and let them make plays" in space, involves doing so in a lot less space than they'll have on Saturday night.  Ohio State will have their moments, but I think the White Out can help stem the type of momentum bursts that swung the TCU game in Ohio State's favor.
PENN STATE 41, OHIO STATE 31
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: bayareabadger on September 26, 2018, 04:08:07 PM
I'm uber excited for this one, even if I can't watch it (kids, never get jobs with bad hours. 9-5 is ideal)
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on September 27, 2018, 01:18:45 AM
Shelly Meyer doesn't like these Penn State shirts....

https://thespun.com/big-ten/ohio-state-football-news/urban-meyer-wife-blasts-penn-state-fan-for-this-t-shirt

(https://thespun.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Screen-Shot-2018-09-25-at-4.12.33-PM-1024x842.png)


reasons like this are why god didn't make me a billionaire. Bc if I was I would so buy 120,000 of those shirts and give them away to Penn State fans at the gate the night of that game.
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on September 27, 2018, 08:18:42 AM
Shelly Meyer doesn't like these Penn State shirts....

https://thespun.com/big-ten/ohio-state-football-news/urban-meyer-wife-blasts-penn-state-fan-for-this-t-shirt

(https://thespun.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Screen-Shot-2018-09-25-at-4.12.33-PM-1024x842.png)


reasons like this are why god didn't make me a billionaire. Bc if I was I would so buy 120,000 of those shirts and give them away to Penn State fans at the gate the night of that game.
1.  These aren’t sanctioned Penn State shirts. 
2.  This from the same fan base that refers to PSU as Ped State. Literally in the same tweet. 
Just sayin. 
Also, for the record, the majority of Penn State fans understand better than most about what OSU just went through.  
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 27, 2018, 08:47:26 AM

The Meyers had better prepare themselves for being heckled about this relentlessly, during road games. 

Showing that it bothers you is only going to make it worse. 
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on September 27, 2018, 08:54:04 AM
***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK***
#4 Ohio State Buckeyes (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State Nittany Lions (1-0, 4-0)
7:30 - State College, PA - ABC
Kind of early in the year for the Big Ten to be playing what sure looks right now like it's going to be the game of the year.  While Iowa-Wisconsin last weekend served as almost a de facto West Division title game, the presence of Michigan, and to a lesser extent Michigan State, makes this feel like an important game, but one where the winner could easily lose two more division games.  So that "two game lead over the loser, and nobody else matters" we had last week isn't present.  However, in each of the previous two seasons, flipping the result of this game would have flipped the East's representative in Indianapolis to the other.  Penn State has looked inconsistent, but their A game looks every bit of their A game from the previous two seasons.  But it seems to disappear for stretches, long stretches.  They should have lost to Appalachian State, they led Pitt by only 1 late in the half, and only led at all because of Pitt's kicker, and trailed late in the 3rd quarter against Illinois.  But as iffy as things looked at times against Pitt and Illinois, when the Nittany Lions turned it on, oh boy did they.  Ohio State has been consistent, elite offensively, at time shaky on defense.  Seeing how TCU struggled against Texas' defense made me question the Buckeyes on that side of the ball even more.  Dwayne Haskins continues to impress, picking up plays in chunk, 10.4 ypa, while still showing ball control beyond his years, with only one pick.  While Ohio State's defense has had questions, Penn State's hasn't looked a ton better.  They improvement since the opener is noticeable, but even James Franklin isn't sure what to do on that side of the ball.  He had a unit at one point early in the Illinois game with only 2 starters on the field.  Just rotating through guys trying to find the right combination.  The fact that the Nittany Lions pass defense now ranks fourth in the Big Ten per play, and fifth in overall passing defense is fairly impressive considering how far behind they were after letting Appalachian State's Zac Thomas complete 66% of his passes for 270 yards on 7.1 ypa.  Considering he's completed 86% of his passes since then, maybe Thomas is just better than we knew.  Or maybe Penn State played Pitt in the rain, and Kent State and Illinois teams that feature run first quarterback mentalities.  Remember Kent State brought in a former Gus Malzahn quarterback, and Illinois hired RichRod's QB coach.  Vegas has no respect for the night white out crowd, installing Penn State as a home underdog for the first time since the last time Ohio State visited.  That was the game that jump started Franklin's program at a time it seemed more likely Franklin would be fired by 2018 than have returned the Nittany Lions to the nation's elite.  While the story that night was Penn State's defense totally shutting Ohio State down late to allow the comeback, on this night it will be Trace McSorley, reminding everyone why he, now Haskins was the unanimous preseason first team all-conference quarterback.  TCU's Shawn Robinson threw for 308 yards on 60% completions.  He's never even otherwise thrown for 200 yards.  That gives me concerns about how the Buckeyes defense will hold up against better opponents.  And while the Ohio State recievers have greatly outperformed expectations, I'm nervous about their abilities in route running when the mentality of "get them the ball and let them make plays" in space, involves doing so in a lot less space than they'll have on Saturday night.  Ohio State will have their moments, but I think the White Out can help stem the type of momentum bursts that swung the TCU game in Ohio State's favor.
PENN STATE 41, OHIO STATE 31

I'm worried about a blowout and this made me feel better.  Thanks.  Haha
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: bayareabadger on September 27, 2018, 10:11:18 AM
Shelly Meyer doesn't like these Penn State shirts....

https://thespun.com/big-ten/ohio-state-football-news/urban-meyer-wife-blasts-penn-state-fan-for-this-t-shirt

(https://thespun.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Screen-Shot-2018-09-25-at-4.12.33-PM-1024x842.png)


reasons like this are why god didn't make me a billionaire. Bc if I was I would so buy 120,000 of those shirts and give them away to Penn State fans at the gate the night of that game.
Urban Liar is the lowest she's seen? This lady had not paid much attention to what he husband does for work. 
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: MaximumSam on September 27, 2018, 10:19:04 AM
Heck, anyone watch Ballers?  OSU is using the police to sway recruits.
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: MrNubbz on September 27, 2018, 12:03:47 PM
reasons like this are why god didn't make me a billionaire. Bc if I was I would so buy 120,000 of those shirts and give them away to Penn State fans at the gate the night of that game.
Maybe Brandon Gibbons and Taylor Lewan can help pass them out as long as you keep them away from the co-eds
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 27, 2018, 12:22:26 PM
Yes, the sanctimonious attitude from Michigan fans, while expected, is a little over the top. 

They wouldn't even suspend a gawdawful kicker for a game.
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 27, 2018, 01:28:01 PM
Yes, the sanctimonious attitude from Michigan fans, while expected, is a little over the top.

They wouldn't even suspend a gawdawful kicker for a game.
First: that's inaccurate. He was out for two games - OSU and the bowl game and then his career was over.
The whole Gibbons thing was pretty terrible. But I recall Michigan fans being pretty united in that even at the time. The controversy for us wasn't about whether he should get the boot. The controversy was about outsiders thinking that he had been systemically protected for years. That wasn't true. This was largely a federal problem.
To recap, when the alleged event (which I trust or at least give the accuser the benefit of the doubt) occurred, the US was still instructing Title IX offices to only move forward on sexual assault cases if they met the "clear and convincing" standard for burden of proof. That's a hard standard and the Gibbons case didn't pass it. However, years later the executive office changed the federal recommendation to lighter "preponderance of evidence" standard ("is there a 50.1% likelihood of guilt?") and U-M's Title IX office went back and, after adapting to the new recommendation, retried Gibbons and expelled him.
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 27, 2018, 01:30:44 PM
I recall the Michigan board banning their own fans from posting there for even bringing it up. 
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 27, 2018, 01:32:40 PM
I don't know what "the Michigan board" is, but juuuust maybe there isn't only one of those.

Mgoblog definitely wasn't that way. They went after Gibbons pretty hard. We also went after Hoke for suspending Gibbons for this against OSU but not having the balls to honestly acknowledge why in his presser.

https://mgoblog.com/content/brendan-gibbons-expelled-untruths-rampant
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: SuperMario on September 27, 2018, 02:17:37 PM
Jonathan Cooper replaces him, and certainly won't be as good as Bosa.  My read on him so far has been he's solid but unspectacular.  Probably be more of a rotation than when Bosa played.  
I thought Cooper has been solid so far. When you have one of the best players in college football go down, you're going to have some sort of hole. The question is, how big is it?
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 27, 2018, 02:47:51 PM
This game will be nuts.
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 27, 2018, 03:06:31 PM
I thought Cooper has been solid so far. When you have one of the best players in college football go down, you're going to have some sort of hole. The question is, how big is it?
This is my take.  Cooper is a good player but when you have to replace Nick Bosa there is going to be a dropoff.  
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 28, 2018, 11:25:08 AM
The series:

Penn State won the first four (1912, 1956, 1963, and 1964 all in Columbus) and six of the eight non-conference games.  Since joining the Big11Ten the Nittany Lions have played the Buckeyes 25 times.  In those 25 conference games:

The last two years the winner of this game has gone on to face Wisconsin in the Badger invitational (aka B1GCG) and those teams both won to claim the B1G Championship.  Michigan looks poised to have something to say about that this year, we'll see.  

The last (and only) time the Nittany Lions won back-to-back home games against the Buckeyes was 1976 and 1994 but that almost feels like it doesn't count because the games were ~20 years apart.  
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 28, 2018, 11:33:25 AM
1912 was an odd OSU season. It was the year before they joined the Big Ten. They swept the OAC, and faced PSU, MSU and Michigan out of Conference. Although none of those schools were in the Big Ten at the time, it is quite the foreshadowing of the B1G East slate that we see today.
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 28, 2018, 04:59:54 PM
Impact of the game:

What a win means for the Buckeyes:
According to the Worldwide leader's FPI (which I actually think is pretty good usually) this is, by far, Ohio State's toughest game.  FPI gives the Buckeyes a slightly less than 50/50 chance to win this one, around 70% to win the @MSU and vsM games and better for all of the others.  There is a decent chance that with a win here the Buckeyes will earn themselves a mulligan and be able to lose any one remaining game and still get to the B1GCG (the likeliest exceptions being Michigan and Michigan State but they both have other tough games remaining).  

The win would hardly clinch the B1G-E but it would make Ohio State the obvious and strong favorite.  

What a loss means for the Buckeyes:
Obviously, with a loss, the Buckeyes couldn't win a H2H tie with Penn State and, as I covered in my tiebreaker thread the Buckeyes would also be extraordinarily unlikely to win a 3-way tie with PSU/M (or MSU for that matter).  That means that if the Buckeyes lose here they'll need help to get to Indianapolis.  What they Buckeyes will need is for PSU to lose twice but that isn't completely unrealistic because the Nittany Lions still have to travel to Ann Arbor and they also host the Badgers, Spartans, and Hawkeyes.  Additionally, the Nittany Lions have a ridiculous three-week stretch in late October / early November where they host Iowa, travel to Michigan, and host Wisconsin.  Finally, just like 2016 there is the chance that an 11-1 tOSU could get into the playoff without going to the B1GCG but that seems a LOT less likely this year because Penn State was perfect OOC.  

The loss wouldn't eliminate the Buckeyes from the B1GCG/CFP races but it would eliminate their margin for error.  

What a win means for the Nittany Lions:
It would mean that PSU won a tough home game but they would still need to do that three more times (MSU, Iowa, UW) plus deal with a road trip to Michigan that happens to be tucked in between hosting the best two teams in the B1G-W.  I'm not saying that a win wouldn't help Penn State, it certainly would.  What I am pointing out is that a win here does not put Penn State in quite as commanding of a position as one might be led to believe.  

The win would help Penn State but there would still be plenty of work left to do.  

What a loss means for the Nittany Lions:
Penn State would likely win a 3-way tie with tOSU and M and in theory that could still happen even if PSU loses tomorrow but it seems pretty unlikely to me that the road team would end up winning all three of tOSU@PSU, PSU@M, and M@tOSU.  Aside from that possibility, the Nittany Lions would need Ohio State to lose twice.  That is far from impossible but it requires some things that just don't seem very likely.  It would require MSU and M to be good enough to beat the tOSU team that beat PSU (M on the road) while those teams would still have to be bad enough to lose in Happy Valley (MSU) and at home (M) to the Nittany Lions.  Stranger things have happened but this combination of results is not very likely.  

The loss would put PSU in the odd position of hoping that M and MSU are really good (when they play tOSU) but not so good (when they play PSU).  
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 30, 2018, 01:54:40 PM
A recurring pattern for sure:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BPredict/status/1046242404137725955
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 30, 2018, 02:08:13 PM
Their place kicker was a freshman that had already missed one, so a missed FG would give OSU great field position.

It was way too early to go for two when they were up by five. 

Their 2 point play didn't work when they were up by 12, so it may have been shut down when they were up by 5 as well. 

Now the sanders run up the middle after three time outs? Yeah, that one was bad. 
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 30, 2018, 03:43:55 PM
A recurring pattern for sure:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BPredict/status/1046242404137725955
https://imgur.com/tZ0sbc7.gif (https://imgur.com/tZ0sbc7.gif)
Watch the final play again. It was a read option with an RPO.  McSorley had the ball with 3 options.  Run left, hand off or throw left.  Dre’Mont jones blew up 2 of those options and chase Young did the rest

If jones doesn’t blow this up, McSorley has 15 yards before he was touched, because the dB took off up field to cover wr.      It was a good call by franklin.  OSU just blew it up.  
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 30, 2018, 06:06:02 PM
No doubt, this could just be that fallacy where badly failed plays at critical moments are routinely seen as bad calls.
But I still would have thrown it in that situation.
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: Mdot21 on September 30, 2018, 10:30:58 PM
was a bad call imo. In that situation they should've put the ball in McSorley's hands on an RPO. Not on a zone read. 

Roll him out give him options on a quick throw, intermediate throw, or take off and run.
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
Post by: TyphonInc on October 01, 2018, 08:17:32 AM
I posted this over in the Stream thread, but it works here as well:

man what a game, what a game. OSU suckered PSU into that 4th down play. Franklin and Mcsorley both said they had seen OSU line up like that and that there was a seam in the middle they could exploit. Then Chase did a stunt and filled in that gap. Boom, game over.
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at #9 Penn State (1-1, 4-1) Post Game
Post by: bayareabadger on October 01, 2018, 10:42:55 AM
was a bad call imo. In that situation they should've put the ball in McSorley's hands on an RPO. Not on a zone read.

Roll him out give him options on a quick throw, intermediate throw, or take off and run.
What you described on the bottom is not an RPO. 
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at #9 Penn State (1-1, 4-1) Post Game
Post by: MaximumSam on October 01, 2018, 03:18:07 PM
I've seen it called an RPO but looks more like a read option run to me.  And it might have been there had Chase Young not run a stunt and avoided getting blocked at all.  
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at #9 Penn State (1-1, 4-1) Post Game
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 01, 2018, 05:07:38 PM
Over on the SoC thread @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) made a point that I think is very important and not getting much attention.  He said that although he lacks stats to back it up, it seems like every time a team completely dominates the first half but is only up by a TD or so, they often lose.  

I was thinking the same thing.  

Everyone is focused on PSU's last play but that seems to me to be mostly recency bias.  It was a one point game.  You don't need to change THAT play to get a different result.  You can change any of maybe a couple dozen plays and get a different result.  Prior to Penn State's fumble (that led to Ohio State's first score of the game), here were Ohio State's drives:

That is catastrophically bad.  Meanwhile, on the drives prior to that fumble, here is what PSU did:

Comparing those two, that is absolute domination by Penn State but it was only 13-0.  It very easily could have been 24-0 and then all of Ohio State's late heroics would likely have been for naught.  

Here are some things that I think are keys to that:

Looking at those three together, the Nittany Lions had first downs at the tOSU 17, the tOSU 29, and the tOSU 28 and got a combined total of just six points out of those three possessions.  That and the fumble that Ohio State turned into a TD were enormously damaging for the Nittany Lions because they absolutely dominated the first half but after just one possession in the third quarter the Buckeyes had a lead.  
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at #9 Penn State (1-1, 4-1) Post Game
Post by: bayareabadger on October 01, 2018, 07:45:32 PM
I've seen it called an RPO but looks more like a read option run to me.  And it might have been there had Chase Young not run a stunt and avoided getting blocked at all.  
Ehhh, commentators are often oddly bad at flubbing the description of what they're seeing. 
RPOs, at their base, have part of the offense (usually the box) running a run play, and players outside running a pass play. And the quarterback, based on a pre- or post snap read either hands off behind run blocking, or throws it. In this case, there was a screen pass outside and a zone read run inside. 
It was interesting that OSU attacked in that way. Stunts are kind of high risk, high reward there. But the rewards was big in that case. 
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at #9 Penn State (1-1, 4-1) Post Game
Post by: MaximumSam on October 02, 2018, 06:26:36 AM
Ehhh, commentators are often oddly bad at flubbing the description of what they're seeing.
RPOs, at their base, have part of the offense (usually the box) running a run play, and players outside running a pass play. And the quarterback, based on a pre- or post snap read either hands off behind run blocking, or throws it. In this case, there was a screen pass outside and a zone read run inside.
It was interesting that OSU attacked in that way. Stunts are kind of high risk, high reward there. But the rewards was big in that case.
Gotcha - see that now
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at #9 Penn State (1-1, 4-1) Post Game
Post by: TyphonInc on October 02, 2018, 10:01:34 AM
How does this thread only have 2 pages of comments?
top 2 dogs in the conference have an epic battle, and we have 4 pages of RPO not RPO argument over in the SOC thread, but nothing (besides Median'a great post) here.

OSU's offense looked historically bad in that 1st half. I'm still in awe that the good guys pulled it off.
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at #9 Penn State (1-1, 4-1) Post Game
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 02, 2018, 11:28:34 AM
How does this thread only have 2 pages of comments?
top 2 dogs in the conference have an epic battle, and we have 4 pages of RPO not RPO argument over in the SOC thread, but nothing (besides Median'a great post) here.

OSU's offense looked historically bad in that 1st half. I'm still in awe that the good guys pulled it off.
FWIW, I stole the concept from a post that @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) made in the SoC thread.  In that thread it got lost in all the RPO/not RPO stuff.  I thought it was a good point.  
Just looking at it, it looks like prior to the PSU fumble tOSU had 3 first downs, >100 yards, and nothing resembling a decent drive while PSU had ~250 yards and four good drives.  That is a staggering difference statistically but PSU only led 13-0.  Based on those stats it should have been at least 20-0 and could easily have been 28-0.  
It seems to me that happens more frequently than it statistically should where one team dominates a half statistically but fails to get TD's and then loses because they don't dominate the second half the same way.  
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at #9 Penn State (1-1, 4-1) Post Game
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 02, 2018, 01:00:40 PM
Spencer Hall is always the best:

https://www.everydayshouldbesaturday.com/2018/10/2/17924794/that-final-play-of-penn-state-ohio-state-illustrated
Title: Re: #4 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at #9 Penn State (1-1, 4-1) Post Game
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 02, 2018, 02:49:09 PM
Spencer Hall is always the best:

https://www.everydayshouldbesaturday.com/2018/10/2/17924794/that-final-play-of-penn-state-ohio-state-illustrated
that is the best!!!!  :57: