header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: #4 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at #9 Penn State (1-1, 4-1) Post Game

 (Read 8977 times)

ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 20320
  • Liked:
Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #14 on: September 26, 2018, 11:28:11 AM »
You hit the nail on the head, my friend.
Also, to get a fair comparison, you have to have the same list from another B1G team.  Is it that unusual to play more patsies at home?  Probably not.
Right, we are only looking at half the schedule.  Basically PSU got MSU/UM at home in the year they were bad, and road in the year they were good.  That's just fluke luck.  They didn't play Wisconsin during that time, so that's nice, and they didn't schedule particularly well.
So I don't think it's fair to criticize Penn State for being out of whack, but it does make sense in saying "pump the brakes a bit" on being overly impressed by McSorley's undefeated home record when it only includes 1 team that finished ranked.
For comparison, since he brought it up, Michigan's in the same time frame.  The reds are the two losses.
  • Hawaii (7-7)
  • Central Florida (6-7) 
  • Colorado (10-4, finished #17)
  • Penn State (11-3, finished #7)
  • #8 Wisconsin (11-3, finished #9)
  • Illinois (3-9)
  • Maryland (6-7)
  • Indiana (6-7)
  • Cincinnati (4-8)
  • Air Force (5-7)
  • Michigan State (10-3, finished #15)
  • Rutgers (4-8)
  • Minnesota (5-7)
  • #8 Ohio State (12-2, finished #5)
  • Western Michigan
  • SMU
  • Nebraska
So, certainly more ranked teams.  Partly because they are flipped from PSU re: MSU, so they were on the road for MSU's bad year, and had them at home their good year.  They had Wisconsin in there, while PSU did not.  The year they got PSU at home, PSU turned out to be good, while when PSU got UM at home, UM was not.  Then Colorado/Pitt, which I think deserving comparable scheduling merit, turned out that Colorado had their lone good team in like a decade, while Pitt was as mediocre as ever.

Big Beef Tacosupreme

  • Player
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 930
  • Liked:
Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #15 on: September 26, 2018, 11:39:15 AM »
OK, I'll start this game thread.  The Buckeyes are 3.5 point favorites despite the white out.  Penn State's new running back looks like a clone of Barkley.   Ohio State's defense will be sure to "test" him.  My head says the Buckeyes are gonna shellac the Nitts but my heart....eh, I guess a tie aint possible.
Penn State's new running back (Miles Sanders) is really good, but he isn't a clone of Barkley.  Sanders doesn't have the breakaway speed, size or pass catching ability that Barkley had.  However, Sanders is playing behind a much better offensive line, and behind a tight end that can actually block.  He's also more likely to take the 2-3 yard gain, rather than dance around looking for the huge run.  Due to these factors, Miles isn't as likely to break a huge run, but he's much more consistent and the team tends to be "on schedule" more often.  This allows for much easier 3rd down conversions.
My head also says the Buckeyes are going to shellac my Nittany lions. 
1.  Penn State's run defense has been average or below average all year. 
2.  Ditto for their pass rush.  Last year Penn State had their best Dlineman injured in the second half.  This pretty much ended Penn State's ability to rush the passer and allowed JT Barrett to go wild.  Turns out that was a career ending injury for Buckholtz.  Penn State has talent, but they are young and lack experience. 
3.  Penn State's secondary is actually pretty good, but if there is no pass rush, Haskins will pick them apart.  Even the best cornerbacks will have troubles covering a wide receiver for more than a few seconds.
4.  Ohio State's offensive line looks even better than it normally does. 
5.  With that said, the whiteout will help the defense tremendously.  However, I don't foresee Penn State holding OSU to less than 35 points.
Penn State's offense is different than last year, but still very good. 
1.  The loss of Barkley is somewhat offset by the factors described above. 
2.  The loss of Gesicki is pretty big, but his replacements have proven to be excellent blockers. 
3.  Penn State really misses the sure hands of Hamilton, but the new crop of wide receivers are also more likely to make huge plays.  I sometimes get the feeling that every pass is either going to be dropped, called back by penalty, or go for a touchdown. 
4.  There's a lack of consistency that will likely bite them sooner or later, and it is likely Ohio State will do the biting. 
5.  I still think PSU is good for at least 24 points, based upon McSorely's consistency and the offense's ability to make big plays. 
I would also give Penn State the edge on punt/kick returns, but I don't expect there to be enough opportunities to make a difference in the game.
Penn State will need lots of help to win this.  I predict OSU to win by at least 2 touchdowns, and maybe more.

SuperMario

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 1266
  • Liked:
Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #16 on: September 26, 2018, 12:21:40 PM »
Should be a fun game
I love this game. This & Ohio State V Wisconsin are my two favorite non-Michigan games. Night games at Happy Valley are always entertaining and the atmosphere is second to none. We're going to learn a lot about both teams. The biggest question from my seat is how big of an impact on the defense is the absence of Bosa?

Anonymous Coward

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 3187
  • Liked:
Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #17 on: September 26, 2018, 12:36:47 PM »
I love this game. This & Ohio State V Wisconsin are my two favorite non-Michigan games. Night games at Happy Valley are always entertaining and the atmosphere is second to none. We're going to learn a lot about both teams. The biggest question from my seat is how big of an impact on the defense is the absence of Bosa?
I'm bullish on that DL being just fine without him.

Anonymous Coward

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 3187
  • Liked:
Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #18 on: September 26, 2018, 12:48:02 PM »
2.  The loss of Gesicki is pretty big, but his replacements have proven to be excellent blockers.  
Gesicki was a real jeckyl-hyde of a TE. Insane ball skills for his size, but when he was actually aligned tight to the end on a run play, he often/usually/always became a sacrificial rag doll for the SDE to tear through with only the faintest obstruction. 
Watching, I'd grimace a lot and wonder how he didn't have many more injuries.

MaximumSam

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 13093
  • Liked:
Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #19 on: September 26, 2018, 01:19:36 PM »
I love this game. This & Ohio State V Wisconsin are my two favorite non-Michigan games. Night games at Happy Valley are always entertaining and the atmosphere is second to none. We're going to learn a lot about both teams. The biggest question from my seat is how big of an impact on the defense is the absence of Bosa?
Jonathan Cooper replaces him, and certainly won't be as good as Bosa.  My read on him so far has been he's solid but unspectacular.  Probably be more of a rotation than when Bosa played.  

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71545
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #20 on: September 26, 2018, 01:32:46 PM »
Ohio State 45

Penn State 24

Anonymous Coward

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 3187
  • Liked:
Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #21 on: September 26, 2018, 01:46:25 PM »
Ohio State 45

Penn State 24
If OSU holds PSU to 24 anywhere, let alone on the road, then that defense is far better than we've thought to date. I'm not sure the Big Ten's *best* defense will hold PSU to 24 or fewer at HOME.

Big Beef Tacosupreme

  • Player
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 930
  • Liked:
Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #22 on: September 26, 2018, 01:55:00 PM »
If OSU holds PSU to 24 anywhere, let alone on the road, then that defense is far better than we've thought to date. I'm not sure the Big Ten's *best* defense will hold PSU to 24 or fewer at HOME.
One thing I've noticed over the years is that a good offense can make an average defense look good.  For example, if OSU puts a few 5-7 minute drives together they can keep the PSU offense off the field and easily hold them to 24 points.  Also a good pass rush can make a secondary look good.  This pretty much describes Wisconsin, btw.  :)

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #23 on: September 26, 2018, 01:59:18 PM »
Right, we are only looking at half the schedule.  Basically PSU got MSU/UM at home in the year they were bad, and road in the year they were good.  That's just fluke luck.  
Just to clarify, it is BAD luck.  
In 2017:
  • Penn State lost close on the road to an MSU team that finished 10-3
  • Penn State thumped Michigan at home and that Michigan team finished 8-5
In 2016:
  • Penn State lost badly on the road to a Michigan team that finished 10-3
  • Penn State thumped Michigan State at home and that Michigan State team finished 3-9

I have a hard time believing that HFA would be enough to flip PSU's 49-10 loss to Michigan in 2016 but the close road loss to MSU in 2017 would have been pretty likely to go the other way in Happy Valley.  

It is bad luck because PSU got HFA when they didn't need it (2017 against Michigan and 2016 against MSU) and didn't get it when they did need it (2017 against MSU and 2016 against Michigan).  

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71545
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #24 on: September 26, 2018, 02:25:19 PM »
That App State game sticks with me.  ASU had one turnover to zero, and 105 yards of penalties to 10 yards.

They outgained PSU (slightly) and "held them" to 38 points.

I think Ohio State is going to go out to a decent lead and hold it by running clock.


ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 20320
  • Liked:
Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #25 on: September 26, 2018, 03:09:24 PM »

***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK***
#4 Ohio State Buckeyes (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State Nittany Lions (1-0, 4-0)
7:30 - State College, PA - ABC
Kind of early in the year for the Big Ten to be playing what sure looks right now like it's going to be the game of the year.  While Iowa-Wisconsin last weekend served as almost a de facto West Division title game, the presence of Michigan, and to a lesser extent Michigan State, makes this feel like an important game, but one where the winner could easily lose two more division games.  So that "two game lead over the loser, and nobody else matters" we had last week isn't present.  However, in each of the previous two seasons, flipping the result of this game would have flipped the East's representative in Indianapolis to the other.  Penn State has looked inconsistent, but their A game looks every bit of their A game from the previous two seasons.  But it seems to disappear for stretches, long stretches.  They should have lost to Appalachian State, they led Pitt by only 1 late in the half, and only led at all because of Pitt's kicker, and trailed late in the 3rd quarter against Illinois.  But as iffy as things looked at times against Pitt and Illinois, when the Nittany Lions turned it on, oh boy did they.  Ohio State has been consistent, elite offensively, at time shaky on defense.  Seeing how TCU struggled against Texas' defense made me question the Buckeyes on that side of the ball even more.  Dwayne Haskins continues to impress, picking up plays in chunk, 10.4 ypa, while still showing ball control beyond his years, with only one pick.  While Ohio State's defense has had questions, Penn State's hasn't looked a ton better.  They improvement since the opener is noticeable, but even James Franklin isn't sure what to do on that side of the ball.  He had a unit at one point early in the Illinois game with only 2 starters on the field.  Just rotating through guys trying to find the right combination.  The fact that the Nittany Lions pass defense now ranks fourth in the Big Ten per play, and fifth in overall passing defense is fairly impressive considering how far behind they were after letting Appalachian State's Zac Thomas complete 66% of his passes for 270 yards on 7.1 ypa.  Considering he's completed 86% of his passes since then, maybe Thomas is just better than we knew.  Or maybe Penn State played Pitt in the rain, and Kent State and Illinois teams that feature run first quarterback mentalities.  Remember Kent State brought in a former Gus Malzahn quarterback, and Illinois hired RichRod's QB coach.  Vegas has no respect for the night white out crowd, installing Penn State as a home underdog for the first time since the last time Ohio State visited.  That was the game that jump started Franklin's program at a time it seemed more likely Franklin would be fired by 2018 than have returned the Nittany Lions to the nation's elite.  While the story that night was Penn State's defense totally shutting Ohio State down late to allow the comeback, on this night it will be Trace McSorley, reminding everyone why he, now Haskins was the unanimous preseason first team all-conference quarterback.  TCU's Shawn Robinson threw for 308 yards on 60% completions.  He's never even otherwise thrown for 200 yards.  That gives me concerns about how the Buckeyes defense will hold up against better opponents.  And while the Ohio State recievers have greatly outperformed expectations, I'm nervous about their abilities in route running when the mentality of "get them the ball and let them make plays" in space, involves doing so in a lot less space than they'll have on Saturday night.  Ohio State will have their moments, but I think the White Out can help stem the type of momentum bursts that swung the TCU game in Ohio State's favor.
PENN STATE 41, OHIO STATE 31

bayareabadger

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 7851
  • Liked:
Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #26 on: September 26, 2018, 04:08:07 PM »
I'm uber excited for this one, even if I can't watch it (kids, never get jobs with bad hours. 9-5 is ideal)

Mdot21

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 14340
  • Liked:
Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #27 on: September 27, 2018, 01:18:45 AM »
Shelly Meyer doesn't like these Penn State shirts....

https://thespun.com/big-ten/ohio-state-football-news/urban-meyer-wife-blasts-penn-state-fan-for-this-t-shirt




reasons like this are why god didn't make me a billionaire. Bc if I was I would so buy 120,000 of those shirts and give them away to Penn State fans at the gate the night of that game.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2018, 01:23:08 AM by Mdot21 »

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.