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Topic: #4 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at #9 Penn State (1-1, 4-1) Post Game

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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #42 on: September 28, 2018, 11:33:25 AM »
1912 was an odd OSU season. It was the year before they joined the Big Ten. They swept the OAC, and faced PSU, MSU and Michigan out of Conference. Although none of those schools were in the Big Ten at the time, it is quite the foreshadowing of the B1G East slate that we see today.
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

medinabuckeye1

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Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #43 on: September 28, 2018, 04:59:54 PM »
Impact of the game:

What a win means for the Buckeyes:
According to the Worldwide leader's FPI (which I actually think is pretty good usually) this is, by far, Ohio State's toughest game.  FPI gives the Buckeyes a slightly less than 50/50 chance to win this one, around 70% to win the @MSU and vsM games and better for all of the others.  There is a decent chance that with a win here the Buckeyes will earn themselves a mulligan and be able to lose any one remaining game and still get to the B1GCG (the likeliest exceptions being Michigan and Michigan State but they both have other tough games remaining).  

The win would hardly clinch the B1G-E but it would make Ohio State the obvious and strong favorite.  

What a loss means for the Buckeyes:
Obviously, with a loss, the Buckeyes couldn't win a H2H tie with Penn State and, as I covered in my tiebreaker thread the Buckeyes would also be extraordinarily unlikely to win a 3-way tie with PSU/M (or MSU for that matter).  That means that if the Buckeyes lose here they'll need help to get to Indianapolis.  What they Buckeyes will need is for PSU to lose twice but that isn't completely unrealistic because the Nittany Lions still have to travel to Ann Arbor and they also host the Badgers, Spartans, and Hawkeyes.  Additionally, the Nittany Lions have a ridiculous three-week stretch in late October / early November where they host Iowa, travel to Michigan, and host Wisconsin.  Finally, just like 2016 there is the chance that an 11-1 tOSU could get into the playoff without going to the B1GCG but that seems a LOT less likely this year because Penn State was perfect OOC.  

The loss wouldn't eliminate the Buckeyes from the B1GCG/CFP races but it would eliminate their margin for error.  

What a win means for the Nittany Lions:
It would mean that PSU won a tough home game but they would still need to do that three more times (MSU, Iowa, UW) plus deal with a road trip to Michigan that happens to be tucked in between hosting the best two teams in the B1G-W.  I'm not saying that a win wouldn't help Penn State, it certainly would.  What I am pointing out is that a win here does not put Penn State in quite as commanding of a position as one might be led to believe.  

The win would help Penn State but there would still be plenty of work left to do.  

What a loss means for the Nittany Lions:
Penn State would likely win a 3-way tie with tOSU and M and in theory that could still happen even if PSU loses tomorrow but it seems pretty unlikely to me that the road team would end up winning all three of tOSU@PSU, PSU@M, and M@tOSU.  Aside from that possibility, the Nittany Lions would need Ohio State to lose twice.  That is far from impossible but it requires some things that just don't seem very likely.  It would require MSU and M to be good enough to beat the tOSU team that beat PSU (M on the road) while those teams would still have to be bad enough to lose in Happy Valley (MSU) and at home (M) to the Nittany Lions.  Stranger things have happened but this combination of results is not very likely.  

The loss would put PSU in the odd position of hoping that M and MSU are really good (when they play tOSU) but not so good (when they play PSU).  

Anonymous Coward

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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #45 on: September 30, 2018, 02:08:13 PM »
Their place kicker was a freshman that had already missed one, so a missed FG would give OSU great field position.

It was way too early to go for two when they were up by five. 

Their 2 point play didn't work when they were up by 12, so it may have been shut down when they were up by 5 as well. 

Now the sanders run up the middle after three time outs? Yeah, that one was bad. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

Honestbuckeye

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Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #46 on: September 30, 2018, 03:43:55 PM »
A recurring pattern for sure:


https://mobile.twitter.com/BPredict/status/1046242404137725955
https://imgur.com/tZ0sbc7.gif
Watch the final play again. It was a read option with an RPO.  McSorley had the ball with 3 options.  Run left, hand off or throw left.  Dre’Mont jones blew up 2 of those options and chase Young did the rest

If jones doesn’t blow this up, McSorley has 15 yards before he was touched, because the dB took off up field to cover wr.      It was a good call by franklin.  OSU just blew it up.  
« Last Edit: September 30, 2018, 03:49:50 PM by Honestbuckeye »
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #47 on: September 30, 2018, 06:06:02 PM »
No doubt, this could just be that fallacy where badly failed plays at critical moments are routinely seen as bad calls.
But I still would have thrown it in that situation.

Mdot21

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Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #48 on: September 30, 2018, 10:30:58 PM »
was a bad call imo. In that situation they should've put the ball in McSorley's hands on an RPO. Not on a zone read. 

Roll him out give him options on a quick throw, intermediate throw, or take off and run.

TyphonInc

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Re: #4 Ohio State (1-0, 4-0) at #9 Penn State (1-0, 4-0) Game Week
« Reply #49 on: October 01, 2018, 08:17:32 AM »
I posted this over in the Stream thread, but it works here as well:

man what a game, what a game. OSU suckered PSU into that 4th down play. Franklin and Mcsorley both said they had seen OSU line up like that and that there was a seam in the middle they could exploit. Then Chase did a stunt and filled in that gap. Boom, game over.

bayareabadger

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Re: #4 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at #9 Penn State (1-1, 4-1) Post Game
« Reply #50 on: October 01, 2018, 10:42:55 AM »
was a bad call imo. In that situation they should've put the ball in McSorley's hands on an RPO. Not on a zone read.

Roll him out give him options on a quick throw, intermediate throw, or take off and run.
What you described on the bottom is not an RPO. 

MaximumSam

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Re: #4 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at #9 Penn State (1-1, 4-1) Post Game
« Reply #51 on: October 01, 2018, 03:18:07 PM »
I've seen it called an RPO but looks more like a read option run to me.  And it might have been there had Chase Young not run a stunt and avoided getting blocked at all.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: #4 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at #9 Penn State (1-1, 4-1) Post Game
« Reply #52 on: October 01, 2018, 05:07:38 PM »
Over on the SoC thread @Brutus Buckeye made a point that I think is very important and not getting much attention.  He said that although he lacks stats to back it up, it seems like every time a team completely dominates the first half but is only up by a TD or so, they often lose.  

I was thinking the same thing.  

Everyone is focused on PSU's last play but that seems to me to be mostly recency bias.  It was a one point game.  You don't need to change THAT play to get a different result.  You can change any of maybe a couple dozen plays and get a different result.  Prior to Penn State's fumble (that led to Ohio State's first score of the game), here were Ohio State's drives:
  • 4 plays, 15 yards, punt
  • 3 plays, 3 yards, punt
  • 3 plays, 4 yards, punt
  • 2 plays, 11 yards, INT
  • 6 plays, 18 yards, punt
  • 3 plays, 0 yards, punt
  • 3 plays, 7 yards, punt
  • 3 plays, 8 yards, punt

That is catastrophically bad.  Meanwhile, on the drives prior to that fumble, here is what PSU did:
  • 9 plays, 40 yards, punt
  • 8 plays, 63 yards, FG
  • 5 plays, 52 yards, missed FG
  • 3 plays, 4 yards, punt
  • 4 plays, 7 yards, FG
  • 3 plays, -7 yards, punt
  • 3 plays, 98 yards, TD
  • 3 plays, 3 yards, punt

Comparing those two, that is absolute domination by Penn State but it was only 13-0.  It very easily could have been 24-0 and then all of Ohio State's late heroics would likely have been for naught.  

Here are some things that I think are keys to that:
  • On the drive that resulted in PSU's first FG they had a 1st and 10 at the tOSU 17 then promptly lost 13 yards.  They gained 14  on the next two plays but that only got them to 4th and 9 and they kicked a 34 yard FG.  
  • On the missed FG drive, McSorley ran for 51 yards on the first play of the possession setting up a 1st and 10 at the tOSU 29.  On the next three plays PSU ran for no gain, gained three yards, and got sacked.  That set up a 46 yard FG attempt that was no good.  
  • On the drive the resulted in PSU's second FG they got an interception and took over 1st and 10 at the tOSU 28.  They then lost three yards, had an incomplete pass, and gained 10 yards to get to 4th and 3 at the tOSU 21 and a 39 yard FG.  

Looking at those three together, the Nittany Lions had first downs at the tOSU 17, the tOSU 29, and the tOSU 28 and got a combined total of just six points out of those three possessions.  That and the fumble that Ohio State turned into a TD were enormously damaging for the Nittany Lions because they absolutely dominated the first half but after just one possession in the third quarter the Buckeyes had a lead.  

bayareabadger

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Re: #4 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at #9 Penn State (1-1, 4-1) Post Game
« Reply #53 on: October 01, 2018, 07:45:32 PM »
I've seen it called an RPO but looks more like a read option run to me.  And it might have been there had Chase Young not run a stunt and avoided getting blocked at all.  
Ehhh, commentators are often oddly bad at flubbing the description of what they're seeing. 
RPOs, at their base, have part of the offense (usually the box) running a run play, and players outside running a pass play. And the quarterback, based on a pre- or post snap read either hands off behind run blocking, or throws it. In this case, there was a screen pass outside and a zone read run inside. 
It was interesting that OSU attacked in that way. Stunts are kind of high risk, high reward there. But the rewards was big in that case. 

MaximumSam

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Re: #4 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at #9 Penn State (1-1, 4-1) Post Game
« Reply #54 on: October 02, 2018, 06:26:36 AM »
Ehhh, commentators are often oddly bad at flubbing the description of what they're seeing.
RPOs, at their base, have part of the offense (usually the box) running a run play, and players outside running a pass play. And the quarterback, based on a pre- or post snap read either hands off behind run blocking, or throws it. In this case, there was a screen pass outside and a zone read run inside.
It was interesting that OSU attacked in that way. Stunts are kind of high risk, high reward there. But the rewards was big in that case.
Gotcha - see that now

TyphonInc

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Re: #4 Ohio State (2-0, 5-0) at #9 Penn State (1-1, 4-1) Post Game
« Reply #55 on: October 02, 2018, 10:01:34 AM »
How does this thread only have 2 pages of comments?
top 2 dogs in the conference have an epic battle, and we have 4 pages of RPO not RPO argument over in the SOC thread, but nothing (besides Median'a great post) here.

OSU's offense looked historically bad in that 1st half. I'm still in awe that the good guys pulled it off.

 

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