2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

[bayareabadger]

I asked about this a few pages back but didn't get any response so I'll ask again:

What are everyone's thoughts on B1G Bubble teams? 

IMHO, there are only two and *MAYBE* three.  At this point I believe that Iowa and Ohio State are bubble teams.  I should define that.  Entering the B1G Tournament I divide the teams in three categories:

• Locks:  These teams will make the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens in the BTT.  They are Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and *MAYBE* Northwestern. 
• Bubble teams:  These are teams that could make the NCAA without winning the BTT but could also miss the NCAA.  They are Iowa, Ohio State, and possibly Northwestern. 
• Teams that need to win the BTT:  These are teams that cannot make the NCAA without winning the BTT.  They are Indiana, Minnesota, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers, and Michigan. 

For the three possible bubble teams, my take:

Northwestern:
Their 12-8 league record and 21-10 overall record *SHOULD* be safely in but their computer ranking is barely ahead of tOSU/Iowa and will likely end up behind the tOSU/Iowa winner if they lose their BTT opener, particularly if it is a bad loss.  Northwestern would clearly be in with a win in their BTT opener and I think they'd be fine with a loss to Wisconsin but there is a possibility that they could end up playing Maryland or worse yet Rutgers in their opener and a bad loss to a bad team could possibly keep the Wildcats out.  I doubt it, but I think it is enough of a possibility to be noted here. 

Iowa/Ohio State:
Ohio State has a better overall record by a game.  Iowa has a better league record by a game.  Ohio State has slightly better computer numbers.  They play each other on Thursday at 6:30 and the winner plays Illinois at 6:30 on Friday.  The loser is pretty clearly out.  The winner would be safe with a win over Illinois.  If the winner loses to Illinois then it could be a very close call where things like the MoV of the two B1G Tournament games and the overall strength of the bubble could be decisive. 

I’m 98% sure that Northwestern is in, but you do raise an interesting point if they grab a quad three loss.

I think those other two are basically done. (That might be too unkind to Iowa)

[medinabuckeye1]

I’m 98% sure that Northwestern is in, but you do raise an interesting point if they grab a quad three loss.

As a practical matter, Northwestern can't take a Q3 loss in their BTT opener. 

At #102, an existing neutral site loss to Rutgers would be Q3 but Rutgers can't play Northwestern without first beating #77 Maryland and then #22 Wisconsin. Also, if Northwestern loses then Rutgers gets a win over #50 Northwestern. 

Rutgers obviously can't win those three games without moving into the top-100 so the worst-case-scenario for Northwestern is a Q2 loss to Rutgers.

[medinabuckeye1]

I think those other two are basically done. (That might be too unkind to Iowa)

What am I missing here vis-a-vis Ohio State?  

If I'm simply being over-optimistic as a fan fine but someone please explain to me what I'm overlooking.  

Ohio State is currently #55 NET, #49 KenPom and 19-12 overall.  I agree that they are DEFINITELY out if they lose to #61 (all rankings from here on on NET because that is the one that the committee explicitly uses) Iowa.  However:

• 20-13 with a loss to Illinois on Friday would yield a NET of around mid to high 40's depending on MoVs in the IA and IL games.  
• 21-13 with a B1G semi-final loss on Saturday would yield a NET in the high 30's to low 40's depending on Saturday's opponent* and the MoVs in the IA, IL, and semi-final games.  
• 22-13 with a B1GCG loss on Sunday would yield a NET in the 30's, opponent* TBD.  

*Opponent on Saturday could be any of:

• B1G #3 Nebraska, #37 NET
• B1G #6 Indiana, #94 NET
• B1G #11 Penn State, #89 NET
• B1G #14 Michigan, #131 NET

No matter which team it is, they will have to have won on Friday.  If it is Indiana they will also have to have won on Thursday.  If it is PSU/M, they will have to have won on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.  Thus, their NET by the time they play tOSU would almost certainly be higher than it is now.  

*Opponent on Sunday could be any of:

• B1G #1 Purdue, #2 NET
• B1G #4 Northwestern, #50 NET
• B1G #5 Wisconsin, #22 NET
• B1G #8 MSU, #24 NET
• B1G #9 Minnesota, #87 NET
• B1G #12 Maryland, #77 NET
• B1G #13 Rutgers, #102 NET

No matter which team it is, they will have to have won on both Friday and Saturday.  If it is Wisconsin they will also have to have won on Thursday.  If it is UMD/RU, they will have to have won on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.  Thus, their NET by the time they play tOSU will be at least as good as it is now with no big jumps for PU/NU/UW but if it IS UMD/RU they will have a MUCH higher NET by the time tOSU plays them.  

As I see it for both tOSU and Iowa:

• Thursday loser is done.  
• Either team is probably done with a close win on Thursday and a blowout loss on Friday to Illinois.  
• Either team is really close with a blowout win on Thursday and a close loss on Friday to Illinois.  
• Either team is probably in with wins on Thursday (each other) and Friday (Illinois) and a loss on Saturday to Nebraska.  I'd be less certain with a Saturday loss to IU, PSU, or M.  
• Either team is almost certainly in if they play in the B1GCG on Sunday.  

[grillrat]

Medina, I don't think wins / losses are going to be a huge +/- on NET ranking at this point.  OSU beating Iowa and Illinois would kick them to mid to upper 40's at best, not the 30's.  The season's results are mostly baked in at this point.

[ELA]

Also the MOV is helping MSU.  They didn't just beat Baylor, they destroyed them, in a neutral site game.

Their record in close games is abysmal, but with a ln efficiency metric, that plays well.  I hate it.  I thibk predictive metrics have a role, but if you are selecting teams for a tournament, Id lean way harder into the results based metrics

[ELA]

Medina, I don't think wins / losses are going to be a huge +/- on NET ranking at this point.  OSU beating Iowa and Illinois would kick them to mid to upper 40's at best, not the 30's.  The season's results are mostly baked in at this point.

The conference numbers help preserve teams that are already in, but dont really help teams that are out get in.  Aside from beating Purdue, I dont think any W really helps you  And OSU wouldnt get a shot at Purdue til the title game.  Then obviously beating them gets you an auto bid.

When MSU got hot, they went from like #22 to #18 in KenPom.  Losing 4 of 5 only dropped them back to #23.

[bayareabadger]

I figure fans can either be butthurt about it, or they can take the @medinabuckeye1 route and wear the high expectations that rule a school coach out from winning it as a badge of honor.

If Painter is constantly eclipsed because the expectations are excellence, and he fulfills them, while other coaches overachieve (for lower results), I mean, can I really be mad?

Just win, baby.

I'm always interested when guys at more upper tier programs get it. Gard got two, once when the team started like crap and then rallied to win the conference, another when they lost a million older guys and then won the conference. Bo had four, two when he got the program going (pair of surprise Big Ten titles), one where they were just far and away the best team (2015) and apparently 2013 because everyone in the top 4 was hyped and all were about as good as each other. That is insane. 

Looking at Painter
2008 - The rise up from program malaise 
2010 - Won the league for the first time since 1996. There wasn't really a good upstart. UW wasn't special. MSU was below preseason expectations. Would've been a solid OSU year, but I see the narrative
2011 - This was sorta terrible Purdue weathers losing Hummel, but Ohio State is a murder wagon, even by peak Matta standards. This shoulda been Matta under the doctrine of GODDAMN LOOK AT THAT TEAM
2019 - Another year where no one had a great case. I guess he got it over Izzo because Izzo's players looked better?
2024 - Purdue is a wagon and is rewarded as such. 

[bayareabadger]

What am I missing here vis-a-vis Ohio State? 

If I'm simply being over-optimistic as a fan fine but someone please explain to me what I'm overlooking. 

Ohio State is currently #55 NET, #49 KenPom and 19-12 overall.  I agree that they are DEFINITELY out if they lose to #61 (all rankings from here on on NET because that is the one that the committee explicitly uses) Iowa.  However:

• 20-13 with a loss to Illinois on Friday would yield a NET of around mid to high 40's depending on MoVs in the IA and IL games. 
• 21-13 with a B1G semi-final loss on Saturday would yield a NET in the high 30's to low 40's depending on Saturday's opponent* and the MoVs in the IA, IL, and semi-final games. 
• 22-13 with a B1GCG loss on Sunday would yield a NET in the 30's, opponent* TBD. 

*Opponent on Saturday could be any of:

• B1G #3 Nebraska, #37 NET
• B1G #6 Indiana, #94 NET
• B1G #11 Penn State, #89 NET
• B1G #14 Michigan, #131 NET

No matter which team it is, they will have to have won on Friday.  If it is Indiana they will also have to have won on Thursday.  If it is PSU/M, they will have to have won on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.  Thus, their NET by the time they play tOSU would almost certainly be higher than it is now. 

*Opponent on Sunday could be any of:

• B1G #1 Purdue, #2 NET
• B1G #4 Northwestern, #50 NET
• B1G #5 Wisconsin, #22 NET
• B1G #8 MSU, #24 NET
• B1G #9 Minnesota, #87 NET
• B1G #12 Maryland, #77 NET
• B1G #13 Rutgers, #102 NET

No matter which team it is, they will have to have won on both Friday and Saturday.  If it is Wisconsin they will also have to have won on Thursday.  If it is UMD/RU, they will have to have won on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.  Thus, their NET by the time they play tOSU will be at least as good as it is now with no big jumps for PU/NU/UW but if it IS UMD/RU they will have a MUCH higher NET by the time tOSU plays them. 

As I see it for both tOSU and Iowa:

• Thursday loser is done. 
• Either team is probably done with a close win on Thursday and a blowout loss on Friday to Illinois. 
• Either team is really close with a blowout win on Thursday and a close loss on Friday to Illinois. 
• Either team is probably in with wins on Thursday (each other) and Friday (Illinois) and a loss on Saturday to Nebraska.  I'd be less certain with a Saturday loss to IU, PSU, or M. 
• Either team is almost certainly in if they play in the B1GCG on Sunday. 

Your own NET matters much less than good wins/bad losses. 

If OSU gets the best run, which is gonna be pretty hard to do, you're talking one extra Q2 and two Q1. So you're talking 5-7, 3-5 with a Q3 loss. And that's assuming you beat Illinois. 

Last year, that was around the Dayton cutline. Maybe that gets them in, but it feels like a tough uphill climb. The current projected last teams in a free of a bad loss, have semi-equivalent Q1/Q2 numbers and have an edge in either NET or raw win volume. 

[medinabuckeye1]

With Rutgers and Michigan out, no team has to worry about taking a Q3 loss in the B1G Tournament.  The 12 remaining teams NET rankings are:

• #2 Purdue, vs MSU/MN Friday
• #16 Illinois, vs IA/tOSU Friday
• #22 Wisconsin, vs UMD Thursday
• #23 Michigan State, vs MN Thursday
• #38 Nebraska, vs UW/UMD Friday
• #51 Northwestern, vs PSU/IU Friday
• #55 Ohio State, vs IA Thursday
• #59 Iowa, vs tOSU Thursday
• #72 Maryland vs UW Thursday
• #86 Penn State vs IU Thursday
• #88 Minnesota vs MSU Thursday
• #96 Indiana vs PSU Thursday

At a Neutral Site the cutoffs are:

• 1-50 Q1
• 51-100 Q2
• 101-200 Q3

So at this point a win over IU is probably Q3 because they'll drop but a loss to them is Q2.  

A similar situation exists wrt Northwestern and Ohio State.  If your team beats them it is a Q2 win but if they beat your team it will likely be a Q1 loss because they'll move up for the win.  

[medinabuckeye1]

The season's results are mostly baked in at this point.

It is a good point about the results being mostly baked in at this point but, to an extent, it depends who you are playing and remember that MoV does matter.  Also note that Maryland moved up five spots last night for blowing out #102 (then) Rutgers.  

Iowa:
Iowa's NET is #59 (was #61 yesterday and they didn't play so teams around them dropped).  Ohio State's is #55 (unchanged from yesterday) so the system should expect a close game.  Vegas says tOSU -2.  A close game will have little-or-no impact on the NET rankings of the two teams but a blowout one way or the other will have a somewhat larger impact.  

Illinois:
Illinois' NET is #16 (was #15 yesterday and they didn't play so a team around them moved up). The Ohio State / Iowa winner would have a slightly improved NET after winning today but that is still WAY below #16 so even close loss will improve the rating.  Any win over Illinois is going to move the needle at least somewhat because the expectation based on the prior 32 (Iowa/tOSU) or 31 (Illinois) games is that Illinois should win this pretty easily.  

The potential Saturday opponents are down to:

• #38 Nebraska
• #86 Penn State
• #96 Indiana

If it is Nebraska, they'll likely be roughly unchanged but if it is PSU/IU, they will be higher by then based on their wins today (each other) and Friday (UNL).  


Then if the Hawkeyes or Buckeyes were to make the CG the potential opponents are:

• #2 Purdue
• #22 Wisconsin
• #23 Michigan State
• #51 Northwestern
• #72 Maryland
• #88 Minnesota

As long as it is PU/UW/MSU it is basically a win/win for Iowa/tOSU as far as NET is concerned because even a loss to a team ranked that much higher wouldn't hurt much if at all.  

Medina, I don't think wins / losses are going to be a huge +/- on NET ranking at this point.  OSU beating Iowa and Illinois would kick them to mid to upper 40's at best, not the 30's.  

We aren't that far apart:

Ohio State is currently #55 NET, #49 KenPom and 19-12 overall.  I agree that they are DEFINITELY out if they lose to #61 (all rankings from here on on NET because that is the one that the committee explicitly uses) Iowa.  However:

• 20-13 with a loss to Illinois on Friday would yield a NET of around mid to high 40's depending on MoVs in the IA and IL games. 
• 21-13 with a B1G semi-final loss on Saturday would yield a NET in the high 30's to low 40's depending on Saturday's opponent* and the MoVs in the IA, IL, and semi-final games. 
• 22-13 with a B1GCG loss on Sunday would yield a NET in the 30's, opponent* TBD. 

So I predicted a NET of high 30's to low 40's you said upper 40's but with the caveat that it does depend on MoV's and who they play.  Note above that Maryland moved up five spots for beating #102 Rutgers.  As I see it, even a close loss to Illinois would move Ohio State up at least that much.  Wins over both Iowa and Illinois would almost have to move Ohio State up ~10 spots which would be to #45 or "mid 40's", no?  

[medinabuckeye1]

The conference numbers help preserve teams that are already in, but dont really help teams that are out get in.  Aside from beating Purdue, I dont think any W really helps you  And OSU wouldnt get a shot at Purdue til the title game.  Then obviously beating them gets you an auto bid.

When MSU got hot, they went from like #22 to #18 in KenPom.  Losing 4 of 5 only dropped them back to #23.

Margins, who you played, and where you played matter a lot.  When MSU lost four of five the losses were:

• vs IA by 7 - This hurt a bit
• vs tOSU by 3 - This too, but less so
• at PU by 6 - This probably improved MSU's NET
• at IU by 1 - This probably didn't hurt much due to being close and on the road

Immediately prior to that MSU had won five out of six but the five wins were:

• vs M by 19 - This didn't help much because M is horrible and it was at home
• vs UMD by 9 - Another home win over an inferior team
• vs IL by 8 - This helped a bit
• at PSU by 8 - Being on the road helps some but it is still an inferior team
• at M by 10 - Michigan is so bad that this probably hurt even being a road game

The best win or least bad loss possible in the B1G is a road game at Purdue.  That was one of MSU's losses in their bad streak.  The least good win or worst possible loss in the B1G is a home game vs Michigan.  That was one of MSU's wins in the hot streak.  

[ELA]

Cannot shoot FTs in Minneapolis

[MaximumSam]

Sounds like Holtmann going to Depaul

[ELA]

Sounds like Holtmann going to Depaul

I think I would rather land a decent mid-major gig, or take a year off