The season's results are mostly baked in at this point.
It is a good point about the results being mostly baked in at this point but, to an extent, it depends who you are playing and remember that MoV does matter. Also note that Maryland moved up five spots last night for blowing out #102 (then) Rutgers.
Iowa:
Iowa's NET is #59 (was #61 yesterday and they didn't play so teams around them dropped). Ohio State's is #55 (unchanged from yesterday) so the system should expect a close game. Vegas says tOSU -2. A close game will have little-or-no impact on the NET rankings of the two teams but a blowout one way or the other will have a somewhat larger impact.
Illinois:
Illinois' NET is #16 (was #15 yesterday and they didn't play so a team around them moved up). The Ohio State / Iowa winner would have a slightly improved NET after winning today but that is still WAY below #16 so even close loss will improve the rating. Any win over Illinois is going to move the needle at least somewhat because the expectation based on the prior 32 (Iowa/tOSU) or 31 (Illinois) games is that Illinois should win this pretty easily.
The potential Saturday opponents are down to:
- #38 Nebraska
- #86 Penn State
- #96 Indiana
If it is Nebraska, they'll likely be roughly unchanged but if it is PSU/IU, they will be higher by then based on their wins today (each other) and Friday (UNL).
Then if the Hawkeyes or Buckeyes were to make the CG the potential opponents are:
- #2 Purdue
- #22 Wisconsin
- #23 Michigan State
- #51 Northwestern
- #72 Maryland
- #88 Minnesota
As long as it is PU/UW/MSU it is basically a win/win for Iowa/tOSU as far as NET is concerned because even a loss to a team ranked that much higher wouldn't hurt much if at all.
Medina, I don't think wins / losses are going to be a huge +/- on NET ranking at this point. OSU beating Iowa and Illinois would kick them to mid to upper 40's at best, not the 30's.
We aren't that far apart:
Ohio State is currently #55 NET, #49 KenPom and 19-12 overall. I agree that they are DEFINITELY out if they lose to #61 (all rankings from here on on NET because that is the one that the committee explicitly uses) Iowa. However:
- 20-13 with a loss to Illinois on Friday would yield a NET of around mid to high 40's depending on MoVs in the IA and IL games.
- 21-13 with a B1G semi-final loss on Saturday would yield a NET in the high 30's to low 40's depending on Saturday's opponent* and the MoVs in the IA, IL, and semi-final games.
- 22-13 with a B1GCG loss on Sunday would yield a NET in the 30's, opponent* TBD.
So I predicted a NET of high 30's to low 40's you said upper 40's but with the caveat that it does depend on MoV's and who they play. Note above that Maryland moved up five spots for beating #102 Rutgers. As I see it, even a close loss to Illinois would move Ohio State up at least that much. Wins over both Iowa and Illinois would almost have to move Ohio State up ~10 spots which would be to #45 or "mid 40's", no?