If they lose the Minnesota game, I think they might be sweating, but unless they get blown out, I think they still make it.
This was something I was going to comment on not just for MSU but also for Northwestern and the Iowa/Ohio State winner.
Back in the RPI days there was no accounting for MoV. Many of you will remember that there were actually websites where you could go and fairly accurately project what a team's RPI would be after a win or loss. The RPI had no MOV/efficiency component so it was completely irrelevant if the game was close or a blowout.
The NET system, as I understand it, doesn't explicitly consider MoV but it does consider "efficiency" which is measured in some version of adjusted points scored and points allowed per 100 possessions.
Around here we tend to talk about MoV which is technically inaccurate but practically interchangeable because a close game will have close efficiency and a blowout will have a wide gap in efficiency.
That was a long way of saying that efficiency/MoV DOES matter now. If MSU or Northwestern gets run out of the gym they will take a bigger NET hit than if they lose a close game.
I'm a lot higher on MSU's chances than
@ELA but I could see a situation where they just get walloped by Minnesota and *MAYBE* that drops them out? I still doubt it because I can't see even a blowout loss dropping them more than ~10 spots and I have a hard time seeing the committee leaving a top-35 team with MSU's schedule out.
Vis-a-vis the other bubble teams, MoV (technically efficiency) is a factor. Northwestern's computer numbers aren't much better than tOSU/Iowa. If they lose their opener they could be in trouble. That said, a close loss to highly ranked Wisconsin would hurt them a lot less than a blowout loss to Rutgers.
For tOSU/Iowa, I think the best thing for the league would be a blowout. Basically my thinking here is that the loser is out regardless so the MoV/efficiency doesn't matter to the loser but it does matter to the winner because the winner isn't necessarily in. There is a big difference for the winner between a blowout win followed by a close loss to Illinois and a close win followed by a blowout loss to Illinois. Ie, I'm thinking that Iowa/tOSU gets in with a blowout win on Thursday and a close loss to Illinois on Friday but they do NOT get in with a close win on Thursday and a blowout loss to Illinois on Friday.
NET rankings to illustrate all of this:
- MSU is #24 and on Thursday they play #87 Minnesota
- Northwestern is #50 and on Friday they play either #22 Wisconsin or the winner of #77 UMD vs #102 Rutgers
- #55 Ohio State and #61 Iowa play on Thursday for the right to play #15 Illinois on Friday.
An MSU loss to Minnesota would be bad but it is still Q2. Rutgers at #102 is a Q3 game at a neutral site but if they beat Maryland and Northwestern they'll move up to Q2. That sucks for Maryland because if they win it is a Q3 win but if they lose it is a Q2 loss.
On a neutral site Q1 is 1-50 and Q2 is 51-100.
Either tOSU or Iowa could move into the top-50 by winning so the loser may get a Q1 loss but that will not help them since the loss will knock them out regardless of the fact that it may upgrade to Q1.