17-14 is such a deeply unsatisfying record, although the BTT means that you won't have that at season's end.
18-14 means you can whine about being a bubble team. 17-15 means you know you're cooked. But 17-14 means you're cooked, but you can maybe just try to convince yourself a bunch of crazy stuff should happen.
OSU's second-biggest disadvantage, other than the record, is a real lack of quality wins. A single win in the top two quadrants. If they manage to get to 20-13, that would leave them 5-11 in the top two quadrants, albeit without a bad loss. I think that's wrong side of the bubble territory.
Agreed (with minor edits) on final records:
17-14:
Even if you lose the BTTCG you end up 20-15 so your only realistic Tournament hope is to win the BTT. Same for anything worse than 17-14. The problem with 17-14 specifically is that, as you said, you "try to convince yourself a bunch of crazy stuff should happen."
18-13:
A loss in the BTTCG means a final record of 21-14. That probably gets you in if for no other reason than simply that the committee will not want to have to go through the extra effort of making up two complete brackets*.
19-12:
This (I think) is where you are getting 20-13. Assuming that, I agree with you because 19-12 doesn't have enough quality wins and 1-1 in the BTT most likely means you beat a non-tournament team in your opener. If they finish 19-12 they probably need to make it to the weekend in Minneapolis meaning a final record of 21-13 or better.
20-11:
This is getting awfully close to a lock although a bad loss in the BTT opener might keep you out at 20-12 with a few bad losses and a relative lack of good wins.
21-10:
This or anything better is pretty much universally a lock for a B1G team.
The margins here are pretty thin and in any give year most teams will have at least this many games decided by one possession so in theory we are basically talking about three to five shots being the difference between having no chance at the Tournament without winning the BTT and being a comfortable lock.
*Thoughts on B1GCG:
We've observed on here over the years that the B1GCG doesn't seem to impact the brackets and the reason for that is obvious. The game doesn't end until a few minutes before the bracket is revealed so the committee has to be done BEFORE they know the result.
It might sound like it would be easy to simply replace one team with another based on the result but it isn't. Let's say, for example, that Ohio State goes worse than projected in the regular season and finishes 13-18/3-17 but then makes a magical run to the B1GCG so heading into the B1GCG the Buckeyes are 17-18. Let's further assume that the Buckeyes' B1GCG opponent is an obvious NCAA Tournament lock. Finally, lets assume that the "last team in" is from far away, lets say California.
Ok, if Ohio State loses the B1GCG they are obviously NOT a tournament team as they'd be 17-19. However, if they win, the Committee has to make a spot for them because they'd get the B1G's auto-bid. But it isn't as simple as deleting the California team and writing "Ohio State" on that line. The committee has to avoid inter-conference games in the first couple rounds. They also have to consider seeding. The "last team in" is probably a #11 or #12 seed. An 18-18 B1G Tournament Champion is probably more like a #14 seed. Even if they ignore that, they can't give Ohio State (as a 11/12 seed) a geographic advantage over their opener opponent. Maybe that Californian "last team in" would be playing in Pittsburgh or Indianapolis but it wouldn't be fair to have a #5 or #6 seed forced to play #11/12 Ohio State basically in their own backyard.
