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Topic: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

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Entropy

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #980 on: January 28, 2024, 11:08:35 AM »
Nebraska is such a different team at home... Not sure the make the tourney with their road performances

847badgerfan

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #981 on: January 28, 2024, 11:18:46 AM »
Great. UW gets to go to Lincoln and play a pissed off Husker team.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

grillrat

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #982 on: January 28, 2024, 04:05:17 PM »
Woof.  Any road win is a good win I guess.

ELA

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #983 on: January 28, 2024, 04:10:21 PM »
Woof.  Any road win is a good win I guess.
Yes

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #984 on: January 28, 2024, 05:15:14 PM »
Woof.  Any road win is a good win I guess.
What are these road wins of which you speak?

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #985 on: January 29, 2024, 09:18:52 AM »
Over the weekend there were two upsets per the tiers, Iowa's win in Ann Arbor and Minnesota's win at Penn State.  

The Iowa win at Michigan is the second half of an oddity that happens every year but this is the first one this year.  Back in December Michigan won in Iowa City.  On Saturday Iowa won in Ann Arbor.  No rational projection system could possibly project that the road team would win both games in a season series but it always happens with a pair of teams or a few pair of teams in the league.  

Anyway, Iowa is now even at +2/-2 so no issue there but Michigan is -2 with one up and three down.  What makes that even more shocking is that they were only projected to win five games all year and they've already lost three of those (vs IA, vs MN, vs IU).  That is really, really bad.  We might need to move them into their own tier below everyone else.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #986 on: January 29, 2024, 09:34:36 AM »
After the aforementioned upsets and all the rest of the games this weekend the updated projected final standings / BTT seeds are:

  • 17-3/25-6 Wisconsin
  • 16-4/27-4 Purdue
  • 15-5/24-7 Illinois
  • 14-6/22-9 Michigan State
  • 12-8/22-9 Nebraska (wins tie with NU based on record against UW)
  • 12-8/21-10 Northwestern
  • 9-11/18-13 Minnesota (wins tie with UMD based on H2H, no game in College Park)
  • 9-11/17-14 Maryland
  • 7-13/15-16 Iowa (wins tie with tOSU/RU based on H2H2H, no games in Columbus nor Piscataway)
  • 7-13/17-14 Ohio State (loses to IA based on H2H2H, beats RU based on record against UMD/MN)
  • 7-13/15-16 Rutgers
  • 6-14/12-19 Penn State (wins tie with IU based on record against UW)
  • 6-14/14-17 Indiana
  • 3-17/8-23 Michigan

Based on the above, the match-ups for the BTT at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota would be:
Wednesday (Peacock):
  • #11 Rutgers vs #14 Michigan, 9pm
  • #12 Penn State vs #13 Indiana
Thursday (BTN):
  • #5 Nebraska vs PSU/IU, 230
  • #6 Northwestern vs RU/M, 9pm
  • #7 Minnesota vs #10 Ohio State, 630
  • #8 Maryland vs #9 Iowa, noon
Friday (BTN):
  • #1 Wisconsin vs UMD/IA, noon
  • #2 Purdue vs MN/tOSU, 630
  • #3 Illinois vs NU/RU/M, 9pm
  • #4 Michigan State vs UNL/PSU/IU, 230
Saturday (CBS):
  • UW/UMD/IA vs MSU/UNL/PSU/IU, 1pm
  • PU/MN/tOSU vs IL/NU/RU/M, 330
Sunday, St. Patrick's Day, March 17 (CBS):
  • UW/UMD/IA/MSU/UNL/PSU/IU vs PU/MN/tOSU/IL/NU/RU/M, 330

To answer @Brutus Buckeye 's standing question, in order for tOSU to play M in the BTT:
  • Michigan would have to beat Rutgers on Wednesday
  • Ohio State would have to beat Minnesota on Thursday
  • Michigan would have to beat Northwestern on Thursday
  • Ohio State would have to beat Purdue on Friday
  • Michigan would have to beat Illinois on Friday
If all of that happened then they would play on Saturday, March 16 on CBS at 330 and the winner would advance to the B1GCG.  


medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #987 on: January 29, 2024, 10:19:53 AM »
My team is 13-7/3-6 with one tier 1/2 win.  Here are the rest of their games along with projection (from tiers):

  • 1/30 vs IL, L, 13-8/3-7
  • 2/2 at IA, L, 13-9/3-8
  • 2/6 vs IU, W, 14-9/4-8
  • 2/10 vs UMD, W, 15-9/5-8
  • 2/13 at UW, L, 15-10/5-9
  • 2/18 vs PU, L, 15-11/5-10
  • 2/22 at MN, L, 15-12/5-11
  • 2/25 at MSU, L, 15-13/5-12
  • 2/29 vs UNL, W, 16-13/6-12
  • 3/3 vs M, W, 17-13/7-12
  • 3/10 at RU, L, 17-14/7-13

Without a shocking run in Minneapolis I'm thinking they need three wins above the projection to have a pretty good shot at the Tournament.  

I'm also worried about the projected wins.  At this point I think the chances that the Terps win in Columbus are better than 50/50, same for UNL.  The Buckeyes probably have a better than 50/50 chance against IU and should beat Michigan but rivalries are strange.  

As bad as this team has looked for the last (almost) two months it is really hard to see a path to the Tournament but January is almost over so maybe?  

FearlessF

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #988 on: January 29, 2024, 10:33:28 AM »
no worries

UNL isn't winning any road games
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

bayareabadger

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #989 on: January 29, 2024, 10:35:46 AM »
My team is 13-7/3-6 with one tier 1/2 win.  Here are the rest of their games along with projection (from tiers):

  • 1/30 vs IL, L, 13-8/3-7
  • 2/2 at IA, L, 13-9/3-8
  • 2/6 vs IU, W, 14-9/4-8
  • 2/10 vs UMD, W, 15-9/5-8
  • 2/13 at UW, L, 15-10/5-9
  • 2/18 vs PU, L, 15-11/5-10
  • 2/22 at MN, L, 15-12/5-11
  • 2/25 at MSU, L, 15-13/5-12
  • 2/29 vs UNL, W, 16-13/6-12
  • 3/3 vs M, W, 17-13/7-12
  • 3/10 at RU, L, 17-14/7-13

Without a shocking run in Minneapolis I'm thinking they need three wins above the projection to have a pretty good shot at the Tournament. 

I'm also worried about the projected wins.  At this point I think the chances that the Terps win in Columbus are better than 50/50, same for UNL.  The Buckeyes probably have a better than 50/50 chance against IU and should beat Michigan but rivalries are strange. 

As bad as this team has looked for the last (almost) two months it is really hard to see a path to the Tournament but January is almost over so maybe? 

17-14 is such a deeply unsatisfying record, although the BTT means that you won't have that at season's end.

18-14 means you can whine about being a bubble team. 17-15 means you know you're cooked. But 17-14 means you're cooked, but you can maybe just try to convince yourself a bunch of crazy stuff should happen.

OSU's second-biggest disadvantage, other than the record, is a real lack of quality wins. A single win in the top two quadrants. If they manage to get to 20-13, that would leave them 5-11 in the top two quadrants, albeit without a bad loss. I think that's wrong side of the bubble territory.

In either case, it probably not happening. Soon the coach will be gone and our long board nightmare of talking about the coach will mercifully be over. 

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #990 on: January 29, 2024, 10:39:39 AM »
In either case, it probably not happening. Soon the coach will be gone and our long board nightmare of talking about the coach will mercifully be over.
Sorry for that, at least I moved it to a thread by itself so you don't have to read through it in this thread.  

bayareabadger

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #991 on: January 29, 2024, 10:41:40 AM »
Sorry for that, at least I moved it to a thread by itself so you don't have to read through it in this thread. 
It’s ok. In the sort of swirl of message board logic, I’d just like it done. 

grillrat

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #992 on: January 29, 2024, 11:05:04 AM »
I mentioned it earlier, but it really needs to be mentioned again:

The East just flat out sucks right now compared to the West.

PU:  4-0
WS:  4-1
IL:  5-1
NW:  4-0
NB:  3-2
MN:  3-3
IA:  2-2

The West is currently 25-9 against the East.  Of those 9 victories, only 3 were on the road: Mich @ Iowa, Mary @ Iowa, and Mary @ Ill.

By comparison, the West has 11 road victories against East teams.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #993 on: January 29, 2024, 11:52:52 AM »
17-14 is such a deeply unsatisfying record, although the BTT means that you won't have that at season's end.

18-14 means you can whine about being a bubble team. 17-15 means you know you're cooked. But 17-14 means you're cooked, but you can maybe just try to convince yourself a bunch of crazy stuff should happen.

OSU's second-biggest disadvantage, other than the record, is a real lack of quality wins. A single win in the top two quadrants. If they manage to get to 20-13, that would leave them 5-11 in the top two quadrants, albeit without a bad loss. I think that's wrong side of the bubble territory.
Agreed (with minor edits) on final records:
17-14:
Even if you lose the BTTCG you end up 20-15 so your only realistic Tournament hope is to win the BTT.  Same for anything worse than 17-14.  The problem with 17-14 specifically is that, as you said, you "try to convince yourself a bunch of crazy stuff should happen."  

18-13:
A loss in the BTTCG means a final record of 21-14.  That probably gets you in if for no other reason than simply that the committee will not want to have to go through the extra effort of making up two complete brackets*.  

19-12:
This (I think) is where you are getting 20-13.  Assuming that, I agree with you because 19-12 doesn't have enough quality wins and 1-1 in the BTT most likely means you beat a non-tournament team in your opener.  If they finish 19-12 they probably need to make it to the weekend in Minneapolis meaning a final record of 21-13 or better.  

20-11:
This is getting awfully close to a lock although a bad loss in the BTT opener might keep you out at 20-12 with a few bad losses and a relative lack of good wins.  

21-10:
This or anything better is pretty much universally a lock for a B1G team.  

The margins here are pretty thin and in any give year most teams will have at least this many games decided by one possession so in theory we are basically talking about three to five shots being the difference between having no chance at the Tournament without winning the BTT and being a comfortable lock.  

*Thoughts on B1GCG:
We've observed on here over the years that the B1GCG doesn't seem to impact the brackets and the reason for that is obvious.  The game doesn't end until a few minutes before the bracket is revealed so the committee has to be done BEFORE they know the result.  

It might sound like it would be easy to simply replace one team with another based on the result but it isn't.  Let's say, for example, that Ohio State goes worse than projected in the regular season and finishes 13-18/3-17 but then makes a magical run to the B1GCG so heading into the B1GCG the Buckeyes are 17-18.  Let's further assume that the Buckeyes' B1GCG opponent is an obvious NCAA Tournament lock.  Finally, lets assume that the "last team in" is from far away, lets say California.  

Ok, if Ohio State loses the B1GCG they are obviously NOT a tournament team as they'd be 17-19.  However, if they win, the Committee has to make a spot for them because they'd get the B1G's auto-bid.  But it isn't as simple as deleting the California team and writing "Ohio State" on that line.  The committee has to avoid inter-conference games in the first couple rounds.  They also have to consider seeding.  The "last team in" is probably a #11 or #12 seed.  An 18-18 B1G Tournament Champion is probably more like a #14 seed.  Even if they ignore that, they can't give Ohio State (as a 11/12 seed) a geographic advantage over their opener opponent.  Maybe that Californian "last team in" would be playing in Pittsburgh or Indianapolis but it wouldn't be fair to have a #5 or #6 seed forced to play #11/12 Ohio State basically in their own backyard.  

 

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