header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

 (Read 121646 times)

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 28947
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1008 on: January 31, 2024, 08:47:10 AM »
Iowa tried to get a road win
it was close
Illinois got one.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 9763
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1009 on: January 31, 2024, 09:15:24 AM »
Overall B1G Championship race thoughts.  

The league has been playing 20 league games since the 2018/19 season, in that time here is what has been necessary to win the league, to get a double-bye (top-four seed), and to avoid playing on Wednesday (top-10 seed):

  • 2019:  Co-Champs were 16-4, 4th was 14-6, 10th was 3-way tie at 7-13.
  • 2020:  Co-Champs were 14-6, 4th was 13-7, 10th was 2-way tie at 9-11.
  • 2021:  Champs were 14-3 (reduced games due to Covid), 4th was 13-6, 10th was 2-way tie at 7-12.  
  • 2022:  Co-Champs were 15-5, 4th was 3-way tie at 12-8, 10th was 3-way tie at 7-13.  
  • 2023:  Champs were 15-5, 4th was 11-8 (Covid), 10th was 2-way tie at 10-10.  

Four losses has always been good for a league title except when Michigan missed three games in 2021.  

Six losses has always been good for a double-bye but you might sneak in with seven or even eight.  

.500 has always been good enough to sit out Wednesday and two or three games worse might get you there as well.  


I bring this up because 6-3 Northwestern visits Mackey tonight to take on 8-2 Purdue.  Looking at the B1G races:
  • 1 loss:  Wisconsin
  • 2 losses:  Purdue
  • 3 losses:  Illinois, Northwestern
  • 4 losses:  none
  • 5 losses:  Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, Minnesota
  • 6 losses:  Iowa, Penn State, Rutgers
  • 7 losses:  Ohio State
  • 8 losses:  Michigan


Northwestern is kinda the odd one.  The teams with five losses are effectively out of the race IMHO.  Granted, 15-5 has been good enough for a league title in three of the five years that we've had 20 game schedules but that would require winning out and is still no guarantee as it took 16-4 in 2019 and 14-3 in 2021.  

That makes it a four team race and when you look at the four teams:
  • Purdue:  Ranked #2 nationally ok, checks out.  
  • Wisconsin:  Ranked #6 nationally ok, checks out.  
  • Illinois:  Ranked #14 nationally ok, checks out.  
  • Northwestern:  If you look really close at the rankings you'll find them listed at the bottom under "Others receiving votes".  Not sure about this one.  

Can Northwestern actually contend for the title?  I don't *THINK* so, but who knows.  They have home wins over Purdue, Michigan State, and Illinois but when they've faced top-tier opposition on the road it has not been pretty.  They lost in Madison and got drilled in Champaign (their other loss was in Lincoln).  In theory they could still win the league even with a loss tonight but in practice I doubt it.  I don't *THINK* they can take out Purdue in the Boilermakers' own building but we'll find out.  

Just looking at the standings:
  • If Northwestern wins tonight it is a 4-team race for the title and Northwestern is one of the four.  
  • If Purdue wins tonight it is a 3-team race for the title with Northwestern clinging to the periphery hoping the top-3 all drop a few games.  


FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 41514
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1010 on: January 31, 2024, 09:17:35 AM »
Want to watch Nebraska vs. Wisconsin team in person on February 1? Tickets still remain for as little as $8.

I might just be there
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Mdot21

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 15735
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1011 on: January 31, 2024, 09:19:41 AM »
Michigan just made their 3rd shot of the 2nd half, with 7 minutes left.  The odd friendly road whistle is the only thing keeping them even mildly in the game
Fire Juwann Howard.

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 9763
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1012 on: January 31, 2024, 09:19:57 AM »
Illinois got one.
Iowa isn't as good as Illinois.

Also, here is a picture of Illinois' opponent last night.

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 9763
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1013 on: January 31, 2024, 05:07:57 PM »
B1G NET then KenPom roughly half way through the season (sorted by NET):

  • 2 Purdue 2
  • 11 Wisconsin 11
  • 12 Illinois 9
  • 24 Michigan State 17
  • 58 Nebraska 53
  • 59 Northwestern 47
  • 60 Iowa 48
  • 73 Ohio State 66
  • 81 Maryland 52
  • 93 Indiana 88
  • 94 Minnesota 84
  • 98 Rutgers 96
  • 103 Michigan 91
  • 127 Penn State 115


Gaps of 10+
  • Northwestern is 12 spots higher in KenPom
  • Iowa is 12 spots higher in KenPom
  • Maryland is 29 spots higher in KenPom
  • Minnesota is 10 spots higher in KenPom
  • Michigan is 12 spots higher in KenPom
  • Penn State is 12 spots higher in KenPom

Thoughts on Ohio State's 3,752 game road losing streak:
For those unfamiliar, my "3,752" is only a slight exaggeration.  The Buckeyes haven't won a road game since beating Northwestern in Evanston on New Years Day . . . of last year.  Based on Net and KenPom the most obtainable road wins in this league should be:
  • at #127/115 PSU, L on 12/9
  • at #103/91 M, L on 1/15
  • at #98/96 RU, 3/10
  • at #94/84 MN, 2/22
  • at #93/88 IU, L on 1/6
  • at #81/52 UMD, not on schedule this year
  • at #60/48 IA, 2/2
  • at #59/47 NU, LoL on 1/27
  • at #58/53 UNL, L on 1/23
  • at #24/17 MSU, 2/25
  • at #12/9 IL, not on schedule this year
  • at #11/11 UW, 2/13
  • at #2/2 PU, not on schedule this year

The game at Iowa on Friday night is one of the Chris Holtmann Farewell Tour's best remaining chances to pick up a road win.  Considering how badly Ohio State lost in Evanston and Lincoln it is hard to see them winning against much better opponents in East Lansing or Madison so there are really only three chances left:
  • In Iowa City this Friday, February 2
  • In Minneapolis on Thursday, February 22
  • In Piscataway on the last day of the regular season, Sunday, March 10.  


ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 21587
  • Liked:

ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 21587
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1015 on: January 31, 2024, 09:32:39 PM »
Purdue needs a 46-8 FT advantage to beat Northwestern in OT.

I do believe Edey is better this year, and they are coaching the defense around him better this year.  But the freshmen have not made the leap I anticipated.  I actually think this team is worse than last year's.  Granted that's still enough to maybe be the best team in the Big Ten, and still one of the 5 best teams in the country.  So in a single elimination tournament, they should still be fine, but something seems slightly off.

With the caveats that they will beat MSU by 30 in Mackey, which even happens when MSU is great and Purdue sucks

grillrat

  • Player
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 618
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1016 on: January 31, 2024, 09:50:35 PM »
Did you watch that game?  That was not Purdue struggling (except at the free throw line, Zach in particular had a really bad game at the stripe).  That was Northwestern throwing up every piece of garbage and having their prayers answered, especially behind the arc.

By my count there were four NBA 3's, well defended, that were shot with 0.5 seconds left on the clock that went in.  Nw shot 14/27 from 3 and 56% overall.  You don't lose many games when you shoot that well.

MaximumSam

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 14357
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1017 on: January 31, 2024, 10:06:42 PM »
I love Chris Collins going full pro wrestler at the end

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 41514
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1018 on: January 31, 2024, 10:11:33 PM »
I did watch

entertaining
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 21587
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1019 on: January 31, 2024, 10:14:40 PM »
Did you watch that game?  That was not Purdue struggling (except at the free throw line, Zach in particular had a really bad game at the stripe).  That was Northwestern throwing up every piece of garbage and having their prayers answered, especially behind the arc.

By my count there were four NBA 3's, well defended, that were shot with 0.5 seconds left on the clock that went in.  Nw shot 14/27 from 3 and 56% overall.  You don't lose many games when you shoot that well.
Yeah, that's college basketball, as I've lamented otherwise.  It's essentially who can make 3s.  They aren't well designed, and 3pt defense is not a real thing.  It was Northwestern hitting every 3 vs. Purdue getting every call

ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 21587
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1020 on: January 31, 2024, 10:17:51 PM »
That was also the full Matthew McConaughey game.  The Wooden Award winner who didn't want to get a job, vs. the the 6th year player who also didn't want to get a job


https://youtu.be/wknywxfcE5M?si=lHIW1ieKYlWw6kvO

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 9763
  • Liked:
Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1021 on: January 31, 2024, 10:18:36 PM »
I know we have a lot of Purdue fans here and I don't think we have any Northwestern fans (I miss @nuwildcat ) but you have to feel for Northwestern fans, that is a rough way to lose. To have the #2 team in the Nation on the ropes in their own building then lose in OT is painful. 

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.