2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

[boilerbanger]

Amazing how bad Michigan and Maryland are this year.  It amazes me how many bad teams we have in this league this year. 

[boilerbanger]

Northwestern is fascinating how they can play so bad and so good in different games.  Is it lack of focus, bad matchups or on the coaching staff not having them ready?

[ELA]

Northwestern is fascinating how they can play so bad and so good in different games.  Is it lack of focus, bad matchups or on the coaching staff not having them ready?

Northwestern always handles MSU

[bayareabadger]

Northwestern always handles MSU

It's weird because that happened only twice between 2002 and 2020, but each felt really memorable. Then it's been four of the past five.

MSU has put together something of an odd season. Just based on this season, they've delivered a top-12 power rating season (per Bart Torvik). Which is to say a lot of winning big, often not losing big and generally playing good teams. This loss knocked them to just being projected to have a modest record, but still 11-5 the rest of the way. A softer conference probably helps, but will be interesting to monitor. 

[medinabuckeye1]

I haven't gotten much input on tiers.  I really don't want this to be "Medina's project".  The idea is that it is a group effort and I try to look for consensus. 

Based on the prior tiers there were two upsets this weekend:

• Northwestern over Michigan State in Evanston
• Indiana over Ohio State in Bloomington

That put Northwestern at +2 and both Ohio State and Michigan State at -2. 

Should Northwestern move up? 

I'm hesitant to move Michigan State down because Izzo. 

I went ahead and moved Ohio State down because Holtmann. 

Also, while the Illini did lose to Purdue, it was a close loss in West Lafayette so maybe they should be in tier-1 with Purdue?

Pending input from the group, the new tiers are:

• Purdue
• Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State
• Nebraska, Iowa
• Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Rutgers
• Penn State, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan

The upsets so far have been:

Based on that the projected final standings and seeds for the BTT at the Target Center in Minneapolis are:

• 17-3/25-6 Wisconsin - wins tie with PU based on record against IL, no game in Champaign
• 17-3/28-3 Purdue
• 16-4/25-6 Illinois
• 14-6/22-9 Michigan State
• 12-8/20-11 Iowa - wins tie with UNL based on H2H, no game in Lincoln
• 12-8/22-9 Nebraska
• 9-11/18-13 Northwestern - wins tie with MN based on record against PU
• 9-11/18-13 Minnesota
• 7-13/15-16 Rutgers - wins tie with tOSU based on record against NU
• 7-13/17-14 Ohio State
• 6-14/14-17 Indiana - wins tie with PSU and UMD based on record against NU
• 6-14/14-17 Maryland - wins tie with PSU based on record against MN
• 6-14/12-19 Penn State
• 3-17/8-23 Michigan

The B1G Tournament match-ups would be, Wednesday, March 13 (Peacock):

• #11 Indiana vs #14 Michigan, 9pm
• #12 Maryland vs #13 Penn State, 630pm

Thursday, March 14 (BTN):

• #5 Iowa vs UMD/PSU, 230pm
• #6 Nebraska vs IU/M, 9pm
• #7 Northwestern vs #10 Ohio State, 630pm
• #8 Minnesota vs #9 Rutgers, noon

Friday, March 15 (BTN)

• #1 Wisconsin vs MN/RU, noon
• #2 Purdue vs NU/tOSU, 630pm
• #3 Illinois vs UNL/IU/M, 9pm
• #4 Michigan State vs IA/UMD/PSU, 230pm

Saturday, March 16 (CBS):

• UW/MN/RU vs MSU/IA/UMD/PSU, 1pm
• PU/NU/tOSU vs IL/UNL/IU/M, 330pm

Sunday, Saint Patrick's Day, March 17 (CBS):

• UW/MN/RU/MSU/IA/UMD/PSU vs PU/NU/tOSU/IL/UNL/IU/M, 330pm

[medinabuckeye1]

Vis-a-vis Holtmann:
Max probably thinks that my dropping tOSU a tier means that I have the pitch forks out.  I honestly don't, yet.  As a tOSU fan I'm trying to be optimistic.  The history obviously makes that difficult but I'm trying.  As far as tiers, I try to be more objective and realistic there.  The reality is troubling.  In their last three league games the Buckeyes have a home win over a bad RU team and road losses to bad PSU and IU teams.  

@MaximumSam , I think you'll agree with this:  I think that the upcoming games at Michigan and against Penn State are critical to not only the Buckeyes' season but also to Holtmann's future with the program.  

Reasoning:
The Buckeyes are currently 12-3/2-2.  They are likely to lose on Wednesday to Wisconsin.  That is NOT an indictment of Holtmann it is an acknowledgement that the Badgers are REALLY good.  In their last 11 games Wisconsin is 10-1 including wins over #24 Virginia and #3 Marquette and a win in East Lansing.  Their only loss since mid-November was a road loss to the then #1 team in the Nation.  

A home loss to Wisconsin will drop the Buckeyes to 12-4/2-3.  After the aforementioned games against M and PSU, the Buckeyes play a rough four-game slate of:

• @UNL on 1/23
• @NU on 1/27
• vsIL on 1/30
• @IA on 2/2

We currently project the Buckeyes to lose all four of those games.  This is what makes the M and PSU games so critical.  

Assuming that Ohio State loses to Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn State then loses all four of the rough slate listed above, they'll drop all the way to 12-10/2-9.  At that point they would have little-or-no chance of making the tournament and Holtmann's days are numbered.  Gene Smith's retirement might buy him a year but even that is doubtful.  Matta got cashiered when he missed two straight tournaments and Matta actually had prior accomplishments to offset against the missed tournaments.  

Conversely, if the Buckeyes manage to win in Ann Arbor and get the revenge win over Penn State then even with losses to Wisconsin and in all four of the aforementioned rough slate, they'd still be 14-8/4-7.  That still isn't ideal but it leaves the door open to sneak into the tournament which would *probably* be enough to save Holtmann's job for at least another year.  

[bayareabadger]

By projected lines, the next seven for Ohio State include six functional tossups and one game where they’ll be a double digit favorite.

If they only go 2-5 that’s pretty bad. If they go 0-7, The coach is done, but that’s pretty par for the course. It’s really hard to have a seven game conference losing streak in a hot seat year and not get canned. 

[MaximumSam]

I'm not assuming they are losing to the Badgers. Wiscy is very good but also has two double digit losses on the road. Hopefully Thornton and Gayle don't go 0-fer from deep again

[boilerbanger]

My tiers:

• Purdue
• Wisconsin, Illinois
• Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio State, Michigan State
• Minnesota, Iowa, Rutgers, Indiana
• Penn State, Maryland, Michigan

[medinabuckeye1]

I'm not assuming they are losing to the Badgers. Wiscy is very good but also has two double digit losses on the road. Hopefully Thornton and Gayle don't go 0-fer from deep again

Well, I'm not altogether assuming it, I said:

They are likely to lose on Wednesday to Wisconsin.  

That said, Wisconsin's

two double digit losses on the road.

Were to #10 Arizona and #23 Providence.  Out team is not that.  

I'm hopeful and our team has been much better at home than on the road but I'll stick with "likely to lose".  

By projected lines, the next seven for Ohio State include six functional tossups and one game where they’ll be a double digit favorite.

If they only go 2-5 that’s pretty bad. If they go 0-7, The coach is done, but that’s pretty par for the course. It’s really hard to have a seven game conference losing streak in a hot seat year and not get canned.

I'm not sure that it would even take seven straight losses to end Holtmann's tenure.  If they lose the next three:

• vs Wisconsin on Wednesday, 
• at Michigan next Monday, and
• vs Penn State on Saturday, January 20

I think that does it.  They'd be 12-6/2-5 but with two losses to the B1G's worst team (PSU) and losses to bad Indiana and Michigan teams.  They'd be hopeless.  

I'm not saying that Holtmann WOULD be fired after that but his tenure would be effectively over and if that DOES happen, I will have a long and detailed post explaining why I think that Gene Smith should can him Saturday afternoon after the PSU game.  

[grillrat]

My recommendation for tiers:

• Purdue
• Wisconsin, Illinois
• Nebraska, Northwestern, Michigan State
• Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio State, Indiana, Maryland
• Penn State, Rutgers, Michigan

I think NW has earned the 3-tier.  It eliminates their "upset" of MSU and lends more credence to their Purdue win.

Maryland is significantly tougher at home than on the road, and they were one possession losses in road games @IU and @Minn,so I'm OK keeping them in the 4 slot.

MSU is a bit of a mystery to me.  They've looked good at times, but have often just looked outright "meh".  Sure, they've played one of the toughest schedules in the nation, but really outside of Baylor, they've lost to every single good team they've faced.  They've looked better recently, but the loss to NW really takes them down a peg.

I might be talked into moving Minnesota up a notch.  Probably need to see how they do tomorrow at Indiana.  I'm also not convinced that Purdue is in it's own separate tier over Illinois and Wisconsin.  If Purdue loses to Nebraska tomorrow, I think moving them down would make a lot of sense (and it wouldn't really affect the overall results much since they don't play @MSU).

[SuperMario]

Assuming that Ohio State loses to Michigan

Conversely, if the Buckeyes manage to win in Ann Arbor 

No need to assume the worst.. Mark the OSU W in on 1/15 right now.. You'll see why after you watch the game. UM program in shambles. 

[medinabuckeye1]

No need to assume the worst.. Mark the OSU W in on 1/15 right now.. You'll see why after you watch the game. UM program in shambles.

It always amuses me that rather than the "homer takes" that everyone expects, what we see a LOT of here is the exact opposite.  The Buckeye fan is almost ready to pencil in an "L" for the tOSU game in Ann Arbor and here comes the Wolverine fan to tell me I should mark it as a "W".  

[FearlessF]

I'll pencil in UNL as Tier 4 or 5
probably 5