2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

I'd like to get the BB prediction spreadsheet set up but we need tiers in order to make it work.  Here are the latest NET and KenPom rankings (format is league rank based on NET, national NET, School, national KenPom):

• 3 Purdue 2
• 7 Illinois 8
• 14 Wisconsin 13
• 23 Michigan State 17
• 36 Ohio State 29
• 58 Nebraska 49
• 68 Iowa 55
• 80 Northwestern 66
• 81 Minnesota 79
• 84 Michigan 62
• 91 Rutgers 86
• 111 Indiana 93
• 121 Maryland 81
• 137 Penn State 117

So for now I'm thinking:

• Purdue
• Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State
• Ohio State, Nebraska, Iowa
• Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan, Rutgers
• Indiana, Maryland
• Penn State

Is that too many tiers?  Most of the conference seems pretty bunched up.  

There is an argument to put Illinois in tier-1 with Purdue but I'd like to wait to see if we get any news about their suspended star and how they do without him for a few games.  

Is Ohio State right in tier-3?  They haven't looked like it lately with a loss to Penn State and close wins over UCLA, WVU, and Rutgers.  

Maybe Penn State should be up in tier-5?  They did get blown out in East Lansing but they beat Ohio State at home and they took Maryland to OT on the road.  

[ELA]

If the Dug McDaniel rumors are true, may have to drop Michigan

[medinabuckeye1]

If the Dug McDaniel rumors are true, may have to drop Michigan

How about to simplify things we move Michigan and Penn State to tier-5?

[SuperMario]

If the Dug McDaniel rumors are true, may have to drop Michigan

What are the rumors?

[Brutus Buckeye]

Who's the fifth best player at each position in the Big Ten this year? 

[MaximumSam]

What are the rumors?

Possibly academically ineligible

[ELA]

What are the rumors?

Academically ineligible.  Starting at the first classes of the 2nd semester, which I think is Tuesday?

If true, I'll tell you where the NC party is at on Monday

[medinabuckeye1]

For now I am using the following tiers:

• Purdue
• Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State
• Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio State
• Northwestern, Minnesota, Rutgers
• Penn State, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan

Based on that, the upsets so far have been:

Based on that, here is the projection:

I'll explain that using Purdue as the example:

• The three noAway columns are the three teams that Purdue does NOT visit this year:  MSU, MN, and PSU
• The three noHome columns are the three teams that Purdue does NOT host this year:  UMD, UNL, and tOSU.  NOTE:  Purdue plays the other seven B1G teams H&A
• RR-W is the projected wins on a full double-round-robin schedule
• RR-L is the projected losses on a full double-round-robin schedule.  Ie, Purdue would be projected to go 23-3 with losses in Madison, Champaign-Urbana, and East Lansing.  
• miss-W is the projected wins that Purdue misses:  @MN, @PSU, vsUMD, vsUNL, vstOSU
• miss-L is the projected loss that Purdue misses:  @MSU 
• Proj-W and Proj-L is Purdue's projected record after accounting for the six games not played, 18-2
• RR%, Proj%, and Diff are the projected double-round-robin winning%, the projected winning% after eliminating the games not played, and a measurement of how good/(bad) the team's schedule is.  Ie, Purdue gets a minute bump of 0.015.  Minnesota appears to have the best schedule 0.054 while Michigan has the worst -0.081.  
• +Var, -Var, and Var are the positive upsets, negative upsets and net total upsets.  Purdue has one negative upset (loss at Northwestern) so their -Var and Var are -1.  
• Conf-W and Conf-L are the projected league record after accounting for upsets so far.  Purdue would project to go 23-3 on a double-round robin but they miss five projected wins and one projected loss so that gets them down to 18-2 and they lost unexpectedly at Northwestern so their projected final record is now 17-3.  
• OOC-W and OOC-L are the known Out of Conference wins and losses.  
• Team is just the team again so you can read across.  
• ProjT-W and ProjT-L are the projected overall record, 28-3 for Purdue.  

Thus, the projected final standings/seedings for the B1G Tournament at the Target Center in Minneapolis would be:

• 17-3/28-3 Purdue
• 16-4/24-7 Wisconsin
• 15-5/23-8 Michigan State (wins tie with IL based on record against PU, no game in W. Lafayette)
• 15-5/24-7 Illinois
• 12-8/20-11 Iowa (wins tie with UNL based on H2H, no game in Lincoln)
• 12-8/22-9 Nebraska
• 11-9/21-10 Ohio State
• 9-11/18-13 Minnesota
• 8-12/17-14 Northwestern
• 7-13/15-16 Rutgers
• 6-14/12-19 Penn State
• 5-15/13-18 Indiana (wins tie with UMD based on record against MN, UMD does not host the Gophers)
• 5-15/13-18 Maryland
• 2-18/7-24 Michigan

The games in Minneapolis would be:
Wednesday, March 13 (Peacock):

• #11 Penn State vs #14 Michigan, 9pm
• #12 Indiana vs #13 Maryland, 630pm

Thursday, March 14 (BTN):

• #5 Iowa vs IU/UMD, 230pm
• #6 Nebraska vs PSU/M, 9pm
• #7 Ohio State vs #10 Rutgers, 630pm
• #8 Minnesota vs #9 Northwestern, noon

Friday, March 15 (BTN):

• #1 Purdue vs MN/NU, noon
• #2 Wisconsin vs tOSU/RU, 630
• #3 Michigan State vs UNL/PSU/M, 9pm
• #4 Illinois vs IA/IU/UMD, 230pm

Saturday, March 16 (CBS):

• PU/MN/NU vs IL/IA/IU/UMD, 1pm
• UW/tOSU/RU vs MSU/UNL/PSU/M, 330pm

Sunday, Saint Patrick's Day, March 17 (CBS):

• PU/MN/NU/IL/IA/IU/UMD vs UW/tOSU/RU/MSU/UNL/PSU/M, 330pm

Since I know that @Brutus Buckeye will ask, Ohio State would meet Michigan in the late semi-final on Saturday if:

• Michigan beats Penn State on Wednesday, and
• Michigan beats Nebraska on Thursday, and
• Ohio State beats Rutgers on Thursday, and
• Michigan beats Michigan State on Friday, and
• Ohio State beats Wisconsin on Friday.  

[ELA]

https://twitter.com/ProjSports/status/1743619458021597533?t=zRX9-F7uFJGi0RQppriYUg&s=19

[ELA]

If OSU loses this game, it's because they can't hit a 3 to save their life

[ELA]

Juwan Howard "letting" Phil Martelli coach the team today.  If the score holds, Michigan will go to 4-1 when Martelli coaches and 3-7 when Juwan coaches.  So he's essentially telling his employers that the better option is sitting next to him

[bayareabadger]

UW snagged a nice little win yesterday. Nebraska had enough in the tank to make runs to prevent the Badgers from just burying them, but the Huskers were pretty much kept at bay. 

Connor Essegian got out of the doghouse for a bit and was firing lasers. It's really too bad he's been crowded out (not that he's helped). He'll be a nice add next season for someone less concerned with defense. Also, Keisei Tominaga is a player. It's almost too bad he's kind of stuck in that particular situation. He's not quite good enough skillset-wise to really lift that Neb. situation. But he can shoot and cut. If he was in the right ecosystem, he'd be a dangerous weapon on a good team.

UW travels to OSU this week for a game that I don't have much read on. OSU seems good, and is at home. If UW wins, kind of a statement in a softer Big 10, and the Buckeyes tighten up a bit. If OSU wins, it gets to chase of specters of backslides past away for a minute. 

[FearlessF]

Keisei Tominaga is a player.

too bad Hoiburg can't run a play for him or set a screen to get him an open look
It's a waste

Badgers shot lights out at home.
Skers defense was a step late all day.
Credit to the Badger's offense.

[GopherRock]

Juwan Howard "letting" Phil Martelli coach the team today.  If the score holds, Michigan will go to 4-1 when Martelli coaches and 3-7 when Juwan coaches.  So he's essentially telling his employers that the better option is sitting next to him

That's a strange way to admit he should have been cashiered two years ago after the fracas in Madison.