2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

OSU's first January game tonight.

Miss the ability for Sam and medina to have a sig bet

I actually sought out this thread to ask @MaximumSam what he thinks so far.  I'm undecided and trying to be cautiously optimistic.  

Historically the "Holtmann January" thing hasn't been strictly by the calendar.  Some years the collapse has started in December and other years they've gotten a win or two in early January before the collapse.  For example, back in 2019 they started off 11-1 including THREE wins over top-10 opponents (Nova, UNC, UK  - with two of those being blowouts).  On December 29 they were ranked #2.  Then I went to their late December game in Cleveland against WVU (see above, took FiL who played FB for WVU).  Anyway, it *SHOULD* have been an easy win but instead they lost, then lost their next three and six out of seven from 12/29 through 1/23.  

When they lost to Penn State a few weeks ago I was very concerned that "Holtmann January" had started early.  I sarcastically posted "Happy New Year" in this thread referring to that.  

The Penn State loss is REALLY bad but bad losses happen even to good teams.  I am ok with that so long as it is isolated and not a trend.  

I'm not sure how to read the games since that:
Optimistically, the Buckeyes doubled up New Orleans and have won four straight.  

Pessimistically, starting with PSU here are the opponents and results:

• Penn State is 110 in KenPom and 115 in Net (dead last amongst B1G teams in NET), Ohio State blew an 18 point lead and lost to them.  Considering that PSU is the worst team in the B1G, if the Buckeyes can lose to them then there are no gimmie wins the rest of the way.  
• UCLA sounds like a nice win because the Jerseys say "UCLA" but KenPom says they are #89 and NET says they are #144 so beating them by seven is not necessarily all that impressive.  
• New Orleans is so far down the KenPom and Net rankings that I gave up searching for them.  Suffice to say that they are a 5-8 team whose five wins all came over schools you probably haven't heard of.  
• West Virginia is like a poor man's UCLA in that the Jerseys look impressive based on past performance but KenPom and Net beg to differ.  The Mountaineers are #124 in KenPom and #172 in NET (dead last in the B12) so needing OT to beat them is concerning.  
• Rutgers is a league game (even if a lot of us wish that it weren't) and league wins are great but Rutgers is also #93 in NET and #86 in KenPom so I'm not sure that Buckeye fans should be comfortable and bragging about a two-possession home win over the Scarlet Knights.  

I'm interested in opinions.  I'd like to hear Max's optimistic take but if you ( @ELA ) would share your neutral take I'd appreciate that.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Happy New Year!

The post I referred to in the above post.  Note date and time, right as PSU game ended.  

[medinabuckeye1]

With the holiday season over, all January gives me to look forward to is the NFL playoffs and Medina’s posts tracking Holtmann’s January slump.

LoL.  I'm cautiously optimistic, see above.  

[ELA]

I'd like to see them hit the boards a little better.  Zed Key, really across the board hasn't been as good as I thought, but their top 3 can play with any top 3 in the conference.  I know he's just a freshman, but every time I see MIddleton, I expect more.  If he takes off over the next 2 months, I wouldn't be shocked.

My guess is that they land in the 7 seed range

[MaximumSam]

My take is that OSU needed to improve their defense to really make progress, and they have done that, at least so far. I'd be more optimistic on their March outlook compared to previous teams - has to be the best backcourt Holtmann has had at Ohio State. 

In general, the gap between the top and bottom has shrunk considerably. The Hoosiers are next to last in the conference based on Torvik, and they nearly beat Kansas at home. OSU's next game is at Indiana. Would I be shocked if they lose? No. 

[boilerbanger]

I thought Ohio State would handle Rutgers more easily last night, they were up like 10 at the half, but could never give the knock out blow.  They have no inside game, never once did I see them try to post up Key and score, I agree with ELA that Key should be better.  I am less concerned about facing OSU after last night than before last night.  I don't think Rutgers is very good this year, they are 0-5 vs Quad I and have 7 Quad 4 wins, so their schedule is weak.

I am more worried about the trip to Nebraska than the trip to OSU for basketball.

[SuperMario]

Maybe Vegas will finally learn their lesson tonight with Michigan. Shocking to see Michigan -6.5 against the Gophers. 

Even as a Cavs fan, I hated Beilein leaving the post to head to the NBA. Not a Howard hater, but Beilein was everything I loved in a coach and he's sorely missed in Ann Arbor. 

[MaximumSam]

I thought Ohio State would handle Rutgers more easily last night, they were up like 10 at the half, but could never give the knock out blow.  They have no inside game, never once did I see them try to post up Key and score, I agree with ELA that Key should be better.  I am less concerned about facing OSU after last night than before last night.  I don't think Rutgers is very good this year, they are 0-5 vs Quad I and have 7 Quad 4 wins, so their schedule is weak.

I am more worried about the trip to Nebraska than the trip to OSU for basketball.

I feel Purdue fans should generally be more understanding of struggling with Rutgers

[boilerbanger]

I feel Purdue fans should generally be more understanding of struggling with Rutgers

Fair point, I remember last year New Year's night all too well.

[bayareabadger]

Maybe Vegas will finally learn their lesson tonight with Michigan. Shocking to see Michigan -6.5 against the Gophers.

Even as a Cavs fan, I hated Beilein leaving the post to head to the NBA. Not a Howard hater, but Beilein was everything I loved in a coach and he's sorely missed in Ann Arbor.

I think a lot of that is about Minnesota and home court. 

Should swing against better teams. Though the power ratings are not excited with the conference this year. 

[SuperMario]

I think a lot of that is about Minnesota and home court.

Should swing against better teams. Though the power ratings are not excited with the conference this year.

For bettors, it was free money. Very free.

[ELA]

Like I said at the time, basketball has essentially become "are you making your threes"


https://twitter.com/kylebaustin/status/1743116429363462241?t=nXn2x4oGa-cNqGCNs8_lFw&s=19

[ELA]

For bettors, it was free money. Very free.

Imagine going back to this time 3 years ago and trying to convince someone of the relative states of Harbaugh and Howard's programs and job security in January 2024

[SuperMario]

Imagine going back to this time 3 years ago and trying to convince someone of the relative states of Harbaugh and Howard's programs and job security in January 2024

Lol. Wow is that a great point.